Core Insights - The Chinese gaming market's actual sales revenue for Q3 2025 reached 880.26 billion yuan, marking a quarter-on-quarter growth of 6.96% but a year-on-year decline of 4.08% [1] - The revenue from self-developed games in overseas markets was 4.994 billion USD, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.34% and a year-on-year decrease of 3.39% [1] - A total of 23 A-share gaming companies reported a combined revenue of 772.45 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 23.30% [2] Market Performance - The client game market in China generated 202.9 billion yuan in Q3 2025, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 16.05% and a year-on-year increase of 19.88% [1] - The mobile game market's revenue was 643.89 billion yuan, showing a quarter-on-quarter growth of 4.39% but a year-on-year decline of 1.93% [1] - The web game market saw a revenue of 10.75 billion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 1.41% [1] Company Performance - Century Huatong reported a revenue of 272.23 billion yuan for the first three quarters, surpassing last year's total, with a net profit of 43.57 billion yuan, up 141.65% [3] - 13 out of 23 gaming companies achieved revenue growth, while 17 companies reported profitability [3] - Perfect World and Giant Network improved their rankings to 3rd and 7th respectively, while Jiubite also moved up two places [6] Notable Companies - Century Games, a subsidiary of Century Huatong, significantly contributed to revenue growth, with its games topping the overseas revenue charts [4] - 37 Interactive Entertainment maintained its position as the second-largest A-share gaming company, with a revenue of 124.61 billion yuan, despite a year-on-year decline of 6.59% [5] - Jiubite's revenue for the first three quarters was 44.86 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 59.17% [7] Strategic Adjustments - Ice Glacier Network shifted its focus from quantity to quality in marketing, resulting in a significant reduction in sales expenses by 52.31% [8] - The company reported a net profit of 5.02 billion yuan for the first three quarters, compared to a loss in the previous year, indicating a successful turnaround [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the media industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [6][34]. Core Insights - The media industry saw a slight increase of 0.16% in the week from November 1 to November 7, 2025, ranking 18th among various industries. Notable performers included China Film, Jishi Media, and Chinese Media, with Baidu Group-SW and NetEase-S showing strong weekly gains in the Hang Seng Technology Index [10][16]. - The report emphasizes the potential in AI applications and cultural exports, particularly focusing on sub-sectors such as gaming, IP, short dramas, and publishing [4][34]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The media industry experienced a weekly increase of 0.16%, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.08% and the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.19%. The gaming sector saw a decline of 0.29%, while the film and television sector increased by 2.49% [10][12]. Key Industry Data - **AI Applications**: In October, the top five AI applications globally were ChatGPT, Doubao, Quark, Baidu Cloud, and Gemini. Doubao led domestic applications with a monthly active user (MAU) count of 159.41 million, reflecting a 6.28% month-over-month growth [20][21]. - **Gaming**: The iOS gaming sales chart for November 6, 2025, was topped by "Honkai: Star Rail," followed by "Honor of Kings" and "Delta Force." The report also noted the upcoming release of seven new games between November 13 and November 15 [23][25]. - **Film**: The total box office for the week was 207 million yuan, with "Improv Murder" leading at 42.11 million yuan, accounting for 20.3% of the weekly total. Upcoming films include "Demon Slayer: Infinity Castle Chapter" and "Now You See Me 3" [27][28][31]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on themes such as AI applications and cultural exports, with specific attention to companies like Giant Network, Kaiying Network, and Perfect World among others [4][34].

Market Overview - The gaming sector experienced a decline of 0.98% on November 10, with ST Huatuo leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4018.6, up 0.53%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13427.61, up 0.18% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Notable gainers included: - Mingchen Health (002919) with a closing price of 19.50, up 6.50% and a trading volume of 134,300 shares, totaling 259 million yuan [1] - Wento Holdings (600715) closed at 2.61, up 2.76% with a trading volume of 604,500 shares, totaling 156 million yuan [1] - Fuchun Co. (300299) closed at 6.81, up 2.71% with a trading volume of 311,400 shares, totaling 211 million yuan [1] - Major decliners included: - ST Huadao (002602) closed at 17.61, down 3.72% with a trading volume of 1,174,300 shares, totaling 2.093 billion yuan [2] - Xinying Network (002517) closed at 22.50, down 2.17% with a trading volume of 421,600 shares, totaling 957 million yuan [2] - Giant Network (002558) closed at 35.50, down 1.63% with a trading volume of 292,700 shares, totaling 1.034 billion yuan [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The gaming sector saw a net outflow of 646 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 358 million yuan [2] - Key stocks with significant capital flow include: - Starry Entertainment (300043) with a net inflow of 47.54 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Fuchun Co. (300299) with a net outflow of 10.19 million yuan from retail investors [3] - Mingchen Health (002919) with a net inflow of 30.79 million yuan from institutional investors [3] ETF Performance - Gaming ETF (product code: 159869) tracking the China Animation and Gaming Index saw a 2.11% increase over the last five days, with a net outflow of 110 million yuan [5] - Food and Beverage ETF (product code: 515170) experienced a decline of 1.38% over the last five days, with a net outflow of 1.385 million yuan [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [12]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the gaming sector is experiencing a recovery with increased clarity on new products for 2026, which may lead to upward revisions in performance. The report emphasizes the importance of differentiated competition based on user preferences and game categories [5]. - The music streaming landscape is undergoing adjustments, particularly with the rise of "Soda Music," which has surpassed 100 million MAU. The report suggests a rational perspective on the music market dynamics, focusing on the ROI of user engagement and content monetization strategies [5]. - AI investments are shifting towards a focus on return on investment (ROI), with significant capital expenditures expected in the domestic market. The report identifies key players in the AI and cloud computing sectors, highlighting their potential for revenue growth and valuation attractiveness [5]. Summary by Sections Gaming Sector - The gaming sector is seeing a recovery with more game licenses being issued, and companies are focusing on differentiated competition based on user and genre [5]. - Key companies to watch include Tencent Holdings, Giant Network, and ST Huatuo, with a focus on their performance and product launches in 2026 [5]. Music Industry - The rise of "Soda Music" has led to adjustments in the music streaming market, with a focus on low-cost content production and user community engagement [5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of high-quality user communities for monetization and the challenges of traditional advertising models in music streaming [5]. AI and Technology - The report anticipates a shift in AI investments towards a focus on ROI, with domestic companies increasing their capital expenditures in AI and cloud computing [5]. - Key companies in the AI space include Tencent, Alibaba, and Baidu, with a focus on their cloud computing capabilities and AI applications [5].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [13]. Core Insights - The report highlights a positive outlook for the gaming sector, particularly with the recent news of ST Huatuo applying to lift its risk warning, which is expected to alleviate valuation pressures in the gaming sector [5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of differentiated competition among gaming companies, focusing on user and genre-based strategies rather than just the number of licenses issued [5]. - In the music sector, the report suggests a rational perspective on the competitive landscape, noting that platforms like Qishui Music are leveraging low-cost content to grow their user base, which may impact traditional music advertising ROI [5]. - The report anticipates a shift in global AI investment focus from capital expenditure to return on investment, with a notable increase in domestic chip listings and rapid commercialization of AI applications [5]. Summary by Sections Education Publishing - Attention is drawn to companies like Zhongwen Chuanmei and Shandong Publishing, which are showing signs of operational turnaround in Q3 2025 [5]. Gaming Sector - Key companies to watch include Tencent Holdings, Giant Network, ST Huatuo, and others, with a focus on their performance and potential for revenue upgrades in 2026 [5]. - The report notes that the issuance of new game licenses is increasing, but this does not necessarily indicate a worsening competitive landscape [5]. Music Industry - The report discusses the impact of Qishui Music achieving over 100 million MAU, suggesting a need for a rational view of the music market dynamics [5]. - It highlights the challenges of monetizing long-tail music content and the importance of building a high-quality user community for future revenue generation [5]. AI Investment - The report predicts that AI investments will increasingly focus on return on investment, with significant developments in domestic chip production and AI applications [5]. - Companies like Tencent, Alibaba, and Baidu are highlighted for their strong positions in AI and cloud computing, with recommendations for investment based on their growth potential [5]. Valuation Table - A detailed valuation table is provided, showing the market capitalization, revenue, and profit forecasts for key companies in the sector, indicating varied growth rates and profitability metrics [7].

Summary of Giant Network Group (002558 CH) Equity Research Report Company Overview - **Company**: Giant Network Group - **Ticker**: 002558 CH - **Sector**: Software - **Market Cap**: CNY 70,289 million (USD 9,871 million) as of 03 Nov 2025 Key Financial Highlights - **3Q Revenue**: Increased 116% year-on-year to CNY 1,706 million - **3Q Net Profit**: Grew 81% year-on-year to CNY 640 million, below estimates by approximately 17% due to overestimated revenue bookings - **Contract Liabilities**: Increased 50% quarter-on-quarter in 3Q, indicating future revenue recognition from previous billings [2][20][24] Core Insights - **Supernatural Action Squad**: - Achieved solid daily active users (DAU) and billings post-summer holidays, ranking 8th among iOS top-grossing games as of 31 October [2][3] - Expected to drive long-term growth with significant commercialisation potential, including promotions during holiday seasons [3][12][33] - Future overseas launch in 2026 anticipated to contribute incremental revenue [3] - **Earnings Estimates**: - Revenue estimates for 2025-2027 raised by 8.3%, 18.3%, and 36.4% respectively, reflecting strong DAU performance [4][24] - Net profit estimates for the same period increased by 2.1%, 19.5%, and 25.8% respectively [27] - **Target Price Adjustment**: - Target price raised to CNY 51.80 from CNY 43.30, implying a potential upside of approximately 43% from current levels [5][32] Growth Opportunities - **User Growth**: The game is still in the early stages of user growth, with significant DAU increases noted during peak seasons [3] - **ARPU Potential**: There is substantial upside for average revenue per user (ARPU) as many paid features are yet to be developed [3] - **Product Pipeline**: Upcoming products like Ming Jiang Sha and Five Thousand Years are in testing phases, with expected launches in late 2025 or early 2026 [3] Financial Ratios and Valuation - **2025-2027 Net Profit CAGR**: Estimated at 41%, above the peer average of 29% [5][32] - **PE Ratio**: Target PE multiple maintained at 25x, above the industry average forward PE of 16x for 2026 [5][32] - **EPS Estimates**: Adjusted EPS for 2026 raised to CNY 2.07 from CNY 1.73 [5][8] Risks and Considerations - **Product Launch Delays**: Potential delays in game launches could lead to earnings volatility [37] - **Gross Billings Uncertainty**: Risks associated with gross billings and lifecycle of game products due to market conditions and competition [37] - **Regulatory Risks**: Stricter regulations could impact game launches and earnings [37] Conclusion - **Investment Recommendation**: Maintain Buy rating with a revised target price of CNY 51.80, supported by strong growth prospects from Supernatural Action Squad and upcoming product launches [5][32][33]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the media industry is "Positive (Maintain)" [1] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the strong performance of leading mobile games in overseas markets, with notable revenue increases and new game launches driving industry growth [3][29] - The integration of AI in content creation, particularly in AI-generated comics and advertising, is highlighted as a key area for investment, with significant advancements in domestic AI models [3][29] - The report suggests a continued focus on high-growth areas such as AI applications, gaming, and IP collaborations, recommending specific companies for investment [3][29] Industry Data Overview - The game "Delta Force" ranked first in the iOS free game chart in mainland China, while "Honor of Kings" topped the iOS revenue chart [9][13] - The film "Predator: Hunting Grounds" achieved the highest box office for the week, grossing 0.36 billion [25][29] Industry News Summary - OpenAI has reached 1 billion monthly active users, enhancing its product distribution capabilities [25] - The gaming market saw continued growth in October, with Bilibili's game "Escape from Duckkov" surpassing 3 million in sales [29] - The report notes the ongoing high growth in the comic market, with significant collaborations involving popular artists [25][29] Company Performance - Heartbeat Company saw a 30% increase in global revenue in October, with its game "Etheria: Restart" contributing significantly [3][29] - Century Huatong's games "Whiteout Survival" and "Kingshot" also reported strong revenue growth, with a 6% increase in October [3][29] - Bilibili's self-developed game "Escape from Duckkov" achieved sales of over 3 million copies [3][29]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on cloud vendors and companies with exceeding expectations in the current market environment [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights a divergence in market performance, with consumer companies facing pressure while AI technology companies continue to show mixed results. Concerns about AI valuation bubbles persist, but leading tech companies like Microsoft, Google, and Meta maintain strong cash flows, suggesting a stable outlook for cloud vendors [3]. - The gaming demand remains robust, although there is a short-term lack of new game releases. Attention is drawn to the progress of key game tests and launches, which could drive revenue growth for related companies [3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring quarterly reports from major Chinese companies like Tencent, JD, Baidu, and Alibaba, as well as the ongoing value in sectors like PDD and the gaming industry [3]. Summary by Sections 1.1 Consumer & Internet - **Education**: The education index fell by 3.59%, with notable performance differences among companies. The implementation of a spring and autumn break system in Sichuan is expected to impact the sector positively [11][18]. - **Luxury & Gaming**: The luxury goods and gaming sectors are closely tied to macroeconomic conditions. Recent Q3 earnings from major gaming companies exceeded expectations, benefiting from a longer holiday schedule in 2026 [19][24]. - **Coffee & Tea**: The coffee sector remains vibrant, while the tea sector faces challenges due to reduced delivery platform subsidies and seasonal competition [3][27]. - **E-commerce**: The e-commerce sector is under pressure, with a lackluster performance during the Double Eleven shopping festival [3][35]. 1.2 Platform & Technology - **Streaming Platforms**: The streaming sector is driven by domestic demand, with platforms like Spotify reporting better-than-expected earnings [3][42]. - **Virtual Assets & Internet Brokers**: The cryptocurrency market is experiencing volatility, with a significant drop in global market value. However, there are potential buying opportunities following recent corrections [3][43]. - **Automotive Services**: The automotive aftermarket is projected to decline, with a year-over-year decrease of 4% expected by October 2025 [3][61]. 1.3 Media - The media sector is experiencing mixed performance, with streaming services facing challenges but also opportunities for growth through strategic partnerships and content offerings [3][41].

Game Releases - The mobile RPG "Black Clover: Path of the Magic Emperor" was officially launched on November 6, featuring a 3D world based on the anime and allowing players to experience Asta's journey alongside popular characters [1] - MiHoYo's first life simulation game "Starry Valley" began its "habitable test" on November 7, allowing players to engage in activities like planting and fishing across different planets [3] Industry Developments - The DLC for "Elden Ring: Night's Fall" is currently in development and is expected to be released in the fiscal year 2025, with performance exceeding initial expectations [6] - The 2025 KPL Grand Finals set a new record for the highest attendance at an esports event, with 62,196 attendees, as Chengdu AG Super Play Team claimed the championship [8] Company News - Rockstar Games announced a delay for "GTA VI," pushing the release date from May 26, 2026, to November 19, 2026, which caused a nearly 10% drop in its parent company Take-Two's stock price [11] - Chen Rui stepped down as General Manager and CFO of Shanghai Bilibili Technology, with the company stating that this change is a normal adjustment and does not affect his role as Chairman and CEO [13] Market Performance - In Q3 2025, China's gaming market generated actual sales revenue of 880.26 billion yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter growth of 6.96%, with leading companies like Kaixin Network and Giant Network reporting net profits exceeding 500 million yuan and growth rates above 35% [15]

Core Viewpoint - The forum "Empower Development through Collaborative Governance - Original IP Protection and Ecological Construction" was held on November 8, organized by Shanghai Mihayou Network Technology Co., Ltd, marking a significant step in the protection of intellectual property rights in the gaming industry [1] Group 1: Forum Details - The forum was attended by major players in the gaming industry and internet platforms, including Mihayou, Shengqu Games, Paper Games, Lilith Games, Eagle Horn Network, Pokecity, Giant Network, Bilibili, and Alipay [1] - The event led to the establishment of the "Shanghai Network Game Industry Intellectual Property Protection Consultation Mechanism," which is the first collaborative protection mechanism focused on the online gaming sector in China [1] Group 2: Industry Impact - This new mechanism aims to enhance the protection of intellectual property rights within the gaming industry, contributing to the advancement of the gaming sector in Shanghai and nationwide [1]