Summary of China Auto Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Auto Industry - **Focus**: 3Q25 preview and expectations into 2026 Key Points and Arguments 1. **Sales Forecasts**: - Total Passenger Vehicle (PV) sales are projected to reach 30.59 million units in 2025 and 31.43 million units in 2026, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 7% and 3% respectively [5][6][89] - The sales of New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) are expected to grow significantly, with wholesales reaching approximately 19.06 million units by 2027, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16% from 2023 to 2030 [6][89] 2. **Market Dynamics**: - The market share of Chinese brands in the overall PV industry is anticipated to increase from 65% in 2024 to 80% in the long term, driven by gains in the NEV segment and the adoption of advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) [75] - The export of vehicles is projected to continue growing, with a record level of approximately 5.9 million units exported in 2024, and an expected increase to around 6.6 million units in 2025 [83][84] 3. **Pricing Environment**: - Pricing discounts have risen to record highs since Q1 2022, although they have narrowed slightly due to government initiatives aimed at reducing market competition [44][52] - The average discount for domestically made models is around 8%, while imported models see an average discount of 13% [52] 4. **OEM Performance**: - Key OEMs such as BYD, Geely, and SAIC are expected to maintain strong sales volumes, with BYD projected to sell approximately 1.14 million units in 3Q25, despite a slight decline of 3% from the previous quarter [90][91] - Leapmotor is expected to show significant growth, with a 30% increase in sales volume to 174,000 units in 3Q25 [90] 5. **Policy Implications**: - There is a 50% probability that subsidies or some form of stimulus will continue into 2026, with a focus on energy efficiency for NEVs [88] - Historical cycles indicate that government policies, such as tax cuts, have previously led to significant rebounds in auto sales [19][23] Additional Important Insights - **Segment Analysis**: - The NEV segment is expected to dominate future sales, with wholesales projected to reach 12.29 million units by 2025, indicating a strong shift towards electric vehicles [6] - The penetration rate of NEVs in the overall market is expected to rise to 60% by 2030 [6] - **Market Share Trends**: - The top 10 OEMs currently hold 86% of the market share, indicating a highly concentrated market [30][32] - The market share of NEVs is expected to grow significantly, with domestic brands leading the charge [37] - **Challenges**: - The industry faces challenges such as fluctuating demand and pricing pressures, which could impact profitability for some OEMs [54][56] This summary encapsulates the key insights and forecasts regarding the China auto industry as discussed in the conference call, highlighting the expected growth in sales, market dynamics, and the implications of government policies on the sector.

Core Insights - In September 2025, 20 A and H-share listed automotive manufacturers reported a total vehicle sales of 2.1862 million units, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.28% [1] - The total sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) reached approximately 1.1924 million units, up 21.9% year-on-year, with a penetration rate of about 55.69% [1][6] Vehicle Sales Overview - The top three manufacturers in total vehicle sales for September were SAIC Motor with 439,777 units, BYD with 396,270 units, and Geely with 273,125 units [4][5] - SAIC Motor's sales increased by 40.39% year-on-year, while BYD's sales decreased by 5.52% [4][5] - Notable growth was observed in Qianli Technology with a year-on-year increase of over 170% in September sales [3][4] New Energy Vehicle Sales - The leading companies in NEV sales for September were BYD with 396,270 units, SAIC Motor with 189,498 units, and Geely with 165,201 units [9] - Qianli Technology and Shuguang Co. saw NEV sales growth exceeding 100% year-on-year, while Li Auto experienced a decline of 36.79% [8][9] - The NEV sales penetration rate increased by 0.69 percentage points compared to August [6] Monthly Sales Trends - Compared to August, companies like Beiqi Blue Valley, Zhongtong Bus, and Jiangling Motors showed significant acceleration in sales growth, while Shuguang Co., Xiaopeng Motors, Dongfeng Group, and Foton Motors experienced a slowdown [1][3] - The overall vehicle sales in September showed a month-on-month increase of 13.63% [1]

Core Insights - In September 2025, 20 A and H-share listed automotive manufacturers collectively sold 2.1862 million vehicles, marking a year-on-year increase of 15.28% and a month-on-month increase of 13.63% [2][5][6] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) reached approximately 55.69%, reflecting a 0.69 percentage point increase from August [9][12] Overall Vehicle Sales - The top three companies in terms of vehicle sales in September were SAIC Motor with 439,777 units, BYD with 396,270 units, and Geely Automobile with 273,125 units [6][8] - Notable year-on-year growth was observed in companies like Qianli Technology with over 170% and XPeng Motors with over 60%, while companies like Dawn Automotive and Li Auto experienced declines exceeding 15% [5][6] New Energy Vehicle Sales - A total of 16 companies reported NEV sales of approximately 1.1924 million units in September, representing a year-on-year increase of 21.9% [9][12] - BYD, SAIC Motor, and Geely Automobile led NEV sales with 396,270, 189,498, and 165,201 units respectively, while Li Auto saw a significant decline of 36.79% in sales [12][14] Company Performance Highlights - SAIC Motor's NEV sales reached 189,498 units in September, with a year-on-year growth of 46.54% [13] - BYD's total vehicle sales in September were 396,270 units, down 5.52% year-on-year, while its NEV sales included 205,100 pure electric and 188,000 plug-in hybrid vehicles [14] - XPeng Motors achieved a remarkable 94.74% increase in vehicle sales, totaling 41,581 units in September [12][14]

Core Insights - The Silver Hua Fund's A500 ETF reported a net value growth rate of 23.39% over the past year [1] Fund Holdings Summary - New additions to the top ten holdings include Xinyi Semiconductor and Zhongji Xuchuang [1] - The largest holding is CATL, accounting for 3.91% of the fund's portfolio [1] - Major reductions in holdings include: - CATL: decreased by 51.19% to 341,100 shares valued at 137 million [1] - Kweichow Moutai: decreased by 56.72% to 73,700 shares valued at 106 million [1] - Ping An Insurance: decreased by 53.84% to 1,326,800 shares valued at 73 million [1] - China Merchants Bank: decreased by 53.69% to 1,530,100 shares valued at 62 million [1] - Midea Group: decreased by 52.51% to 621,200 shares valued at 45 million [1] - Dongfang Caifu: decreased by 53.64% to 1,555,900 shares valued at 42 million [1] - Industrial Bank: decreased by 53.15% to 2,075,900 shares valued at 41 million [1] - Longjiang Power and BYD have exited the top ten holdings [1]

Core Insights - The TaiKang Zhongzheng A500 ETF, managed by Wei Jun, reported a net value growth rate of 23.61% over the past year [1] Group 1: Fund Performance - The fund's top ten holdings saw the addition of new stocks, including Xinyi Technology and Zhongji Xuchuang, while major reductions were made in holdings like CATL and Kweichow Moutai [1] - CATL remains the largest holding at 3.77% of the fund's portfolio, despite a 50.56% reduction in shares held [1] Group 2: Changes in Holdings - New entries in the top ten holdings include: - Xinyi Technology (300502) with 132,000 shares valued at 48 million [1] - Zhongji Xuchuang (300308) with 118,100 shares valued at 48 million [1] - Significant reductions in holdings include: - CATL (300750) with a 50.56% decrease, now holding 350,900 shares valued at 141 million [1] - Kweichow Moutai (600519) with a 50.59% decrease, now holding 83,200 shares valued at 120 million [1] - Ping An Insurance (601318) with a 50.58% decrease, now holding 1,427,800 shares valued at 79 million [1]

New Car Launches - Jietu Zongheng G700 launched with a price range of 329,900 to 424,900 CNY, featuring a 2.0T dual-motor hybrid system and a comprehensive range of 1,400 km [1][2][8] - Fangcheng Leopard 5 Long Range version launched at a price of 269,800 to 329,800 CNY, equipped with a 1.5T engine and a total power of 505 kW [1][15] - Fangcheng Leopard 8 five-seat version launched with a price range of 379,800 to 399,800 CNY, featuring a DMO hybrid platform [1][24] - Aishang A100C launched with a price range of 39,800 to 52,800 CNY, targeting the micro electric vehicle market [1][29] - New BYD Song L DM-i launched with a price range of 139,800 to 156,800 CNY, featuring upgraded battery options [1][42] - New BYD Song Pro DM-i launched with a price range of 102,800 to 125,800 CNY, with improved electric range [1][49] - New BYD Qin L DM-i launched with a price range of 96,800 to 106,800 CNY, focusing on enhanced electric range [1][56] - Zeekr 7X pre-sale initiated, with significant upgrades in technology and performance expected [1][58] - New Tank 400 Smart Edition pre-sale initiated with a price range of 309,800 to 329,800 CNY, featuring advanced off-road capabilities [1][69] Company Dynamics - Yangwang U9 Xtreme certified as the fastest mass-produced electric vehicle at the Nürburgring with a time of 6 minutes 59.157 seconds [1][77] - Tengshi's first concept sports car revealed at Nürburgring, showcasing advanced technology [1][81] - Multiple automakers announced purchase tax subsidies to alleviate customer burdens due to order backlogs [1][84] - Weilai ES8 and Li Auto i6 also announced purchase tax subsidy plans [1][91][92] - Zontai Motors reported a net loss of 222.3 million CNY in Q3, despite a slight revenue increase [1][101][102] - Great Wall Motors reported a revenue increase of 20.51% in Q3, but net profit decreased by 31.23% [1][108][111] - GAC Group reported a decline in both revenue and sales in Q3, with a significant drop in net profit [1][112][114] - Tesla reported record revenue of 28.1 billion USD in Q3, but net profit decreased by 37% due to lower vehicle prices [1][118][123] - Porsche reported a 99% drop in net profit for the first three quarters, prompting organizational restructuring [1][126][129]

On the streets of Rio. It's not hard to find electric vehicles from China. I've seen a lot of BYD cars on the streets and many electric cars because of the price.Everyone is getting on board. There are a lot of Chinese cars on the streets. Brazil is South America's largest auto market, and the country is quickly becoming the next frontier in China's EV expansion.In 2024, Brazil imported around 138,000 EVs and hybrids from China. That number is up nearly 100,000 from 2023. The momentum in South America mirro ...

Market Performance - The three major indices rebounded this week, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 2.88%, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 4.73%, and the ChiNext Index gaining 8.05% [1][2]. - The semiconductor, consumer electronics, and components sectors showed significant gains, with CPO and PCB concept stocks performing actively [1]. Individual Stock Performance - A total of 18 stocks saw price increases exceeding 30%, with Yingxin Development rising over 60% and Yunhan Chip City increasing over 40% [3]. - The stocks with the highest weekly gains included Yingxin Development (60.98%), ShenKai Co. (55.94%), and Rongxin Culture (53.10%) [4]. - Conversely, 48 stocks experienced declines of over 10%, with Yitian Intelligent and *ST Yuancheng dropping more than 20% [3][4]. Trading Activity - 51 stocks had a turnover rate exceeding 100%, with Yunhan Chip City leading at 277.04% [5][6]. - The sectors with high turnover rates included electronics, machinery, pharmaceuticals, and petrochemicals [5]. Capital Flow - Major industries such as electronics, communications, and building materials saw net inflows exceeding 4 billion yuan, while the pharmaceutical sector faced the highest net outflow of 73.98 billion yuan [8][9]. - Notable stocks with significant net inflows included Zhongji Xuchuang (38.77 billion yuan) and Lixun Precision (31.41 billion yuan), while BYD faced a net outflow of 27.49 billion yuan [8][9]. Margin Trading - A total of 1,747 stocks received net margin purchases, with 105 stocks exceeding 100 million yuan in net purchases [11]. - Hanwujing-U topped the list with a net purchase of 27.66 billion yuan, followed by Shenghong Technology and Zhongji Xuchuang [11][12]. Institutional Research - 135 listed companies were researched by institutions, with Xinqianglian receiving the most attention from 189 institutions [13][15]. - The sectors of focus for institutional research included industrial machinery and electronic components [13]. New Institutional Interests - 53 stocks were newly favored by institutions, with six stocks receiving target prices [17][18]. - Notable mentions include LianTe Technology, which received a "Buy" rating with a target price of 107.37 yuan from Huatai Securities [17][18].

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China will have a total of 8,672 billion yuan in reverse repos maturing next week, with specific amounts maturing each day [1] - A total of 41 restricted shares will be unlocked next week, with a total market value of 48.762 billion yuan based on the latest closing prices [3] - Three new stocks will be issued next week, including Fengbei Biotechnology on October 27 and Delijia on October 28 [3] Group 2 - The earnings reports for major A-share companies will be released next week, with notable companies like Kweichow Moutai, BYD, Vanke, and Sinopec expected to report [5] - A total of 4,347 listed companies are scheduled to disclose their Q3 reports from October 27 to 31, with 1,087 companies having already reported as of October 25 [5] - Among the companies that have reported, 647 have shown a year-on-year profit increase, accounting for approximately 59.52% [5] Group 3 - Major U.S. tech companies, including Meta, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Apple, are set to release their earnings reports next week [6] - Caterpillar and Boeing are also expected to release earnings that could significantly impact the market [6] Group 4 - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut on October 29, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 3.75% to 4.00% [7] - Investors will focus on the Fed's language following the decision to gauge future rate cut signals [7] Group 5 - The 2025 APEC Leaders' Meeting will take place from October 31 to November 1 in South Korea, with discussions on U.S.-China relations anticipated [6] - A trade negotiation delegation from China will visit Malaysia for discussions on economic relations with the U.S. [6]

Group 1 - The 2025 Solid-State Battery Industry Annual Conference and the Golden Ding Award Ceremony will take place from November 6 to November 8, 2025, in Guangzhou, focusing on new technologies and ecosystem building [5][6] - The event will feature over 1000 participants and includes a concurrent CINE Solid-State Battery Exhibition and Sodium Battery Exhibition [6] - Major companies participating include CATL, BYD, Ganfeng Lithium, and others, indicating strong industry interest and collaboration [5] Group 2 - Chuangneng New Energy has secured over 80GWh in new orders for 2025, with nearly 50GWh of overseas orders, showcasing robust international growth [8] - CATL reported a revenue of approximately 283.07 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of about 9.3%, with a net profit of approximately 49.03 billion yuan, up 36.2% [9] - Guoxuan High-Tech's revenue for the first three quarters reached 29.508 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.21%, with a net profit of 2.533 billion yuan, up 514.35% [10] Group 3 - Multiple leading lithium battery companies are expanding production capacity in response to surging demand, with companies like CATL, BYD, and Guoxuan High-Tech initiating new capacity projects [17] - A new 20GWh lithium-ion battery manufacturing base has been established by Guoxuan High-Tech in Nanjing, with a total investment of 4 billion yuan [19] - A significant investment of 88 billion yuan has been made by BYD in a new battery project in Taizhou, which will have an annual production capacity of 22GWh [15][16] Group 4 - Fujitsu has launched a new series of energy storage products with a combined capacity of 261kWh, 522kWh, and 4.32MWh, aiming for high efficiency and simplified operations [20] - XINWANDA is investing in three energy storage projects, with a total capacity of 200MW/400MWh, to enhance its energy storage capabilities [21][22] - Zhuhai Guanyu has successfully mass-produced high-silicon anode batteries, achieving an energy density of 900Wh/L, positioning itself as a leader in the industry [24] Group 5 - The domestic market for battery recycling is rapidly growing, with nearly 192,300 related companies established as of October 22, indicating a significant rise in the sector [42] - A strategic partnership has been formed between Beijing Dinos and EVE Energy to build a nationwide lithium battery recycling network, marking a crucial step in the industry's closed-loop construction [43] - A new project for recycling used lithium batteries has been completed in Tengzhou, focusing on efficient recovery and reuse of battery materials [44]