Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View - Currently, there are still many positive factors in the A-share market. Although many economic indicators declined further in December, industrial production grew steadily driven by industries representing new productive forces such as aerospace and artificial intelligence, weakening the negative impact of the decline in other economic indicators on the market. The aerospace and artificial intelligence-related listed companies have the largest weight in the CSI 500, significantly boosting the index. With the demand for foreign exchange settlement of export enterprises and the expectation of economic recovery, the RMB is still in an appreciation channel. The weakening of the US dollar value due to overseas risk events and the strong RMB exchange rate support the expectation of loose monetary policy in Q1, and the stock market is gradually converging with the foreign exchange market. The spring market is still advancing. [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Disk - IF main contract (2603) was at 4688.8, up 10.2; IF sub-main contract (2601) was at 4732.8, up 9.2. IH main contract (2603) was at 3073.8, down 3.6; IH sub-main contract (2601) was at 3076.4, down 2.0. IC main contract (2603) was at 8148.0, up 90.6; IC sub-main contract (2601) was at 8281.8, up 64.2. IM main contract (2603) was at 8003.0, up 36.4; IM sub-main contract (2601) was at 8230.0, up 20.8. - IF - IH current month contract spread was 1656.4, up 11.6; IC - IF current month contract spread was 3549.0, up 47.8. IM - IC current month contract spread was -51.8, down 49.8; IC - IH current month contract spread was 5205.4, up 59.4. IM - IF current month contract spread was 3497.2, down 2.0; IM - IH current month contract spread was 5153.6, up 9.6. - IF current quarter - current month was -44.0, up 1.8; IF next quarter - current month was -99, down 51.8. IH current quarter - current month was -2.6, down 0.4; IH next quarter - current month was -34.6, down 31.0. IC current quarter - current month was -133.8, up 24.6; IC next quarter - current month was -257.8, down 88.2. IM current quarter - current month was -227.0, up 19.0; IM next quarter - current month was -387, down 128.6. [2] Futures Positions - IF top 20 net positions were -43,401.00, down 1559.0; IH top 20 net positions were -18,009.00, down 102.0. IC top 20 net positions were -36,994.00, down 1257.0; IM top 20 net positions were -52,814.00, up 1252.0. [2] Spot Prices - The Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 was at 4734.46, up 2.6; IF main contract basis was -45.7, up 6.2. The Shanghai Composite 50 was at 3075.9, down 3.8; IH main contract basis was -2.1, down 1.2. The CSI 500 was at 8288.0, up 55.3; IC main contract basis was -140.0, up 24.1. The CSI 1000 was at 8265.7, up 32.9; IM main contract basis was -262.7, down 8.9. [2] Market Sentiment - A - share trading volume (daily, billion yuan) was 27,322.16, down 3243.08; margin trading balance (previous trading day, billion yuan) was 27,315.37, up 127.86. North - bound trading volume (previous trading day, billion yuan) was 3665.73, up 110.95; reverse repurchase (maturity amount, operation amount, billion yuan) was -861.0, up 1583.0. - Main funds (yesterday, today, billion yuan) were -486.02 and -424.12. The proportion of rising stocks (daily, %) was 64.47, up 20.13; Shibor (daily, %) was 1.318, down 0.007. - IO at - the - money call option closing price (2601) was 82.00, down 11.40; IO at - the - money call option implied volatility (%) was 16.22, down 2.26. IO at - the - money put option closing price (2601) was 94.40, down 18.20; IO at - the - money put option implied volatility (%) was 16.22, down 2.26. - The 20 - day volatility of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 index (%) was 10.69, down 0.34; trading volume PCR (%) was 55.22, down 2.60; open interest PCR (%) was 67.65, up 0.63. [2] Wind Market Strength and Weakness Analysis - The overall A - shares score was 6.50, up 2.00; technical analysis score was 6.40, up 2.10; capital analysis score was 6.50, up 1.90. [2] Industry News - In 2025, China's GDP was 1,401,879 billion yuan, up 5.0% year - on - year at constant prices. In Q4, GDP grew 4.5% year - on - year and 1.2% quarter - on - quarter. In December 2025, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased 5.2% year - on - year and 0.49% month - on - month. In 2025, it increased 5.9% year - on - year. - In 2025, China's fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 485,186 billion yuan, down 3.8% year - on - year. Private fixed asset investment decreased 6.4% year - on - year. In December, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased 1.13% month - on - month. - In 2025, China's real estate development investment decreased 17.2% year - on - year. New commercial housing sales area decreased 8.7% year - on - year, and sales volume was 83,937 billion yuan, down 12.6%. Real estate development enterprise funds in place decreased 13.4% year - on - year. In December 2025, the national real estate climate index was 91.45. - In December, the total retail sales of consumer goods was 45,136 billion yuan, up 0.9% year - on - year. In 2025, it was 501,202 billion yuan, up 3.7% year - on - year. In 2025, the average urban surveyed unemployment rate in China was 5.2%, and in December, it was 5.1%. - Most A - share major indices closed higher, with small and medium - cap stocks outperforming large - cap blue - chips. Among the four broad - based indices, the CSI 500 was the strongest. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.29%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.09%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.7%. A - share trading volume declined significantly. Over 3,500 stocks rose. Most industry sectors rose, with basic chemicals and petrochemical sectors rising sharply and the computer sector leading the decline. - Overseas, on January 17, the US imposed tariffs on 8 European countries over the Greenland issue, increasing market distrust of US dollar assets and weakening the US dollar index. Domestically, the economic fundamentals showed a further decline in Q4 GDP, but the annual 5% economic growth target was still achieved. In December, except for the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size, fixed investment, retail sales, and exports declined compared with November. [2] Key Data to Focus On - January 20, 9:00: China's 1 - year and 5 - year LPR quotes for January - January 22, 23:00: US November PCE and core PCE - January 23, 16:15 - 17:30: Preliminary January SPGI manufacturing, service, and composite PMI values for France, Germany, the Eurozone, and the UK - January 23, 22:45: Preliminary January SPGI manufacturing, service, and composite PMI values for the US [3]

| | 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 | 2026/1/19 | | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 数据指标 | 最新 环比 数据指标 最新 | 环比 | | EC主力收盘价 | 1132.200 -20.4↓ EC次主力收盘价 1318 | -31.40↓ | | 期货盘面 EC2604-EC2606价差 | -185.80 +4.40↑ EC2604-EC2608价差 -326.80 | +17.80↑ | | EC合约基差 | 821.99 -13.40↓ | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 | 41888 -744↓ | | | SCFIS（欧线）（周） | 1954.19 -2.10↓ SCFIS（美西线）（周） 1,305.27 | -18.71↓ | | SCFI（综合指数）（周） | 1574.12 -73.27↓ 集装箱船运力（万标准箱） 1,227.97 | 0.00↑ | | 现货价格 CCFI（综合指数）（周） | 1209.85 14.96↑ CCFI（欧线）（周） 1,582.60 | 14.85↑ | | 波罗的海干散货指数（日） | 1567.00 ...

| | | 沪镍产业日报 2026-01-19 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪镍(日,元/吨) | 142320 | 970 02-03月合约价差:沪镍(日,元/吨) | -210 | 30 | | | LME3个月镍(日,美元/吨) | 17792 | -798 主力合约持仓量:沪镍(日,手) | 83210 | -14515 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:沪镍(日,手) | -61562 | 8295 LME镍:库存(日,吨) | 285732 | 450 | | | 上期所库存:镍(周,吨) | 48180 | 1530 LME镍:注销仓单:合计(日,吨) | 13098 | 0 | | | 仓单数量:沪镍(日,吨) | 41798 | -187 | | | | 现货市场 | SMM1#镍现货价(日,元/吨) | 145900 | -3450 现货均价:1#镍板:长江有色(日,元/吨) | 146100 | -3350 | | ...

铝类产业日报 2026/1/19 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 24,090.00 | +165.00↑ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 2,733.00 | -18.00↓ | | | 主力-连二合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) | -100.00 | +15.00↑ 主力-连二合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) | -121.00 | +1.00↑ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) | 337,097.00 | +3198.00↑ 主力合约持仓量:氧化铝(日,手) | 490,989.00 | +873.00↑ | | | LME铝注销仓单(日,吨) | 41,425.00 | 0.00 库存:氧化铝:合计(周,万吨) | 217,143.00 | +21062.00↑ | | 期货市场 | LME电解铝三个月报价（日，美元/吨） | 3,134.00 | -33.50↓ LME铝库存（日，吨） | 488,000.00 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Apple产区开始春节备货但整体氛围偏淡，全国主产区苹果冷库去库速度环比加快但低于去年同期，销区市场中转库积压严重、客源少、走货慢，苹果期价短期可能偏弱运行 [2] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - 苹果期货主力合约收盘价为9345元/吨；主力合约持仓量为111147手，环比减少10855手；期货前20名持仓净买单量为 - 1728手，环比减少4416手 [2] 2. Spot Market - 甘肃静宁纸袋75以上苹果现货价格5.25元/斤，山东沂源纸袋75以上苹果现货价格2.4元/斤，陕西洛川纸袋70以上半商品苹果现货价格4.2元/斤，山东烟台栖霞纸袋80以上二级果农货苹果现货价格3.7元/斤，环比均无变化 [2] 3. Upstream Situation - 全国苹果年产量5128.51万吨，水果批发价苹果9.33元/公斤，环比增加0.1元/公斤，富士苹果平均批发价9.2元/公斤，环比增加0.03元/公斤；全国苹果冷库总库存704.66万吨，环比减少16.24万吨；山东苹果库容比0.51，环比减少0.01；陕西苹果库容比0.54，环比减少0.01；苹果出口数量当月值120000吨，环比增加40000吨 [2] 4. Industry Situation - 鲜、干水果及坚果进口金额当月值1117946万美元，环比减少216418万美元；苹果出口金额当月同比16.2%；一二级纸袋苹果80存储商利润为0元/斤，环比无变化 [2] 5. Downstream Situation - 水果批发价鸭梨6.71元/公斤，香蕉7.03元/公斤，西瓜5.87元/公斤；广东江门、下桥、槎龙批发市场早间日均到车量分别为11.8辆、24.6辆、17.8辆，其中江门环比减少0.6辆，槎龙环比增加1辆 [2] 6. Options Market - 苹果平值看涨期权隐含波动率27.38%，环比增加0.45%；平值看跌期权隐含波动率27.4%，环比增加0.48% [2] 7. Industry Status - 陕西果农货成交以少量两极货源为主，部分产区果农货价格松动；甘肃产区客商按需调果农货源，包装发货稳定，走货尚可；山东产区成交一般，礼盒开始零星包装，少量75和三级货源出库 [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests trading with a light position in a volatile market and controlling risks by paying attention to trading rhythm. The lithium carbonate market is in a stage of stable supply and cautious demand, with a slowdown in the inventory destocking rate. The option market sentiment is bearish, and the implied volatility has slightly decreased [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 147,260 yuan/ton, up 1,060 yuan. The net position of the top 20 was -146,387 hands, down 8,847 hands. The position volume of the main contract was 411,331 hands, down 4,802 hands. The spread between near - and far - month contracts was -1,660 yuan/ton, down 11,320 yuan/ton. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts were 27,698 hands/ton, up 240 hands [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 151,000 yuan/ton, down 7,000 yuan. The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 147,500 yuan/ton, down 7,000 yuan. The basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract was 3,740 yuan/ton, down 8,060 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) was 1,890 US dollars/ton, down 35 US dollars. The average price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) was 6,200 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan. The average price of amblygonite was 16,650 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan. The monthly production of lithium carbonate was 56,820 tons, up 2,840 tons. The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate was 22,055.19 tons, down 1,825.51 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly export volume of lithium carbonate was 759.24 tons, up 513.33 tons. The monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises was 49%, up 2%. The monthly production of power batteries was 201,700 MWh, up 25,400 MWh [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application Situation - The prices of manganese - acid lithium, hexafluorophosphate lithium, cobalt - acid lithium, various types of ternary materials, and lithium iron phosphate remained unchanged. The monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials was 50%, down 1%. The monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathode was 60%, down 3%. The monthly production of new energy vehicles was 1,718,000 vehicles, down 162,000 vehicles. The monthly sales volume was 1,710,000 vehicles, down 113,000 vehicles. The cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 47.94%, up 0.45%. The cumulative sales volume was 16,490,000 vehicles, up 3,624,000 vehicles. The monthly export volume was 300,000 vehicles, unchanged. The cumulative export volume was 2.615 million vehicles, up 1.331 million vehicles [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day average volatility of the underlying was 80.07%, down 1.16%. The 40 - day average volatility was 68.23%, down 0.08%. The total call position was 99,286 contracts, up 18,245 contracts. The total put position was 143,609 contracts, up 7,890 contracts. The put - call ratio of the total position was 144.64%, down 22.8278%. The implied volatility of at - the - money options was 0.65%, down 0.0127% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held a press conference to introduce the "Interim Measures for the Recycling and Comprehensive Utilization of Waste Power Batteries of New Energy Vehicles". In 2025, the comprehensive utilization volume of waste power batteries of new energy vehicles in China exceeded 400,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 32.9%. From January to December, the cumulative export of power and energy - storage batteries in China reached 305.0 GWh, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 50.7%, accounting for 17.9% of the annual cumulative sales. In 2025, the structure of China's automobile export enterprises was significantly optimized. In 2025, the national industrial added value above the designated size increased by 5.9% year - on - year [2]. 3.8 Market Analysis - The main contract of lithium carbonate showed a weak and volatile trend, with a decline of 3.83% at the close. The position volume decreased month - on - month. The spot price was at a premium to the futures price, and the basis weakened compared with the previous day. On the fundamental side, smelters in the raw material end had sufficient raw material inventories, but their purchasing attitudes were cautious due to high ore prices. On the supply side, due to large market fluctuations, the upstream's shipping attitudes were divided, and upstream inventories had accumulated. On the demand side, downstream enterprises were sensitive to lithium prices, mainly purchasing on a just - in - time basis [2].

本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 部分亮点。下游市场以逢低按需采购为主，近期锌价快速走高，下游采购寡淡，现货升水下调，国内库存 研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格证F03118799 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0022803 增加；LME锌库存持稳，现货升水维持低位。技术面，持仓减量价格下跌，多头氛围下降。观点参考：预 计沪锌震荡调整，关注MA10支撑。 免责声明 | | | 沪锌产业日报 2026-01-19 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪锌主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 24450 | -300 02-03月合约价差:沪锌(日,元/吨) | -40 | 35 | | | LME三个月锌报价(日,美元/吨) | 3209 | -105.5 沪锌总持仓量(日,手) | 232277 | -20708 | | | 沪锌前20名净持仓(日,手) ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report suggests a volatile and bearish outlook for iron ore prices, advising attention to risk control. The port inventory continues to accumulate, with relatively sufficient spot resources but uneven variety distribution. The arrival of the first 200,000 - ton shipment of Simandou iron ore in China may put short - term pressure on ore prices. The I2605 contract's 1 - hour MACD indicator shows DIFF and DEA adjusting downward [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract is 794.00 yuan/ton, down 18.00 yuan; the position is 616,341 lots, down 32,521 lots. The I 5 - 9 contract spread is 17.5 yuan/ton, down 1.00 yuan. The net position of the top 20 in the I contract is - 11,895 lots, up 6,714 lots. The DCE warehouse receipt is 800.00 lots, down 700.00 lots. The Singapore iron ore main contract's 15:00 quote is 104.65 US dollars/ton, down 1.69 US dollars [2]. 现货市场 - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port is 857 yuan/dry ton, down 7 yuan; the price of 60.5% Mac fines is 853 yuan/dry ton, down 4 yuan. The price of 56.5% Super Special fines at Jingtang Port is 761 yuan/dry ton, down 7 yuan. The basis of the I main contract (Mac fines dry ton - main contract) is 59 yuan, up 14 yuan. The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) is 106.15 US dollars/ton, down 0.55 US dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to Qingdao Port 60.5% Mac fines is 3.04, up 0.03. The estimated import cost is 855 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [2]. Industry Situation - The global iron ore shipment volume (weekly) is 2,929.80 million tons, down 251.10 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports (weekly) is 2,897.70 million tons, down 117.30 million tons. The iron ore inventory at 47 ports (weekly) is 17,288.70 million tons, up 244.26 million tons. The iron ore inventory of sample steel mills (weekly) is 9,262.22 million tons, up 272.63 million tons. The iron ore import volume (monthly) is 11,965.00 million tons, up 911.00 million tons. The available days of iron ore (weekly) is 22.00 days, up 5 days. The daily output of 266 mines (weekly) is 39.95 million tons, up 0.81 million tons. The operating rate of 266 mines (weekly) is 63.02%, up 1.30 percentage points. The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly) is 43.44 million tons, down 0.49 million tons. The BDI index is 1,567.00, up 35.00. The iron ore freight rate from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao is 19.56 US dollars/ton, up 0.30 US dollars; the freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao is 7.45 US dollars/ton, up 0.23 US dollars [2]. Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 78.82%, down 0.51 percentage points. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 85.46%, down 0.60 percentage points. The domestic crude steel output (monthly) is 6,818 million tons, down 169 million tons [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) is 18.51%, up 1.75 percentage points. The 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) is 15.99%, up 1.06 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily) is 22.01%, up 3.66 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options (daily) is 24.41%, up 7.74 percentage points [2]. Industry News - From January 12th to January 18th, 2026, the global iron ore shipment volume was 2,929.8 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 251.1 million tons. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 2,246.6 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 359.8 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 2,897.7 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 117.3 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 Chinese ports was 2,659.7 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 260.7 million tons; the arrival volume at the six northern ports was 1,442.9 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 26.3 million tons. Also, on January 17th, local time, US President Trump announced that starting from February 1st, a 10% tariff will be imposed on all goods exported to the US from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, and Finland, and the tariff will be increased to 25% by June 1st [2].

热轧卷板产业链日报 2026/1/19 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 备注：HC：热轧卷板 研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任 自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任 何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引 用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | HC 主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,299 | -16↓ HC 主力合约持仓量(手) | 1502009 | -12645↓ | | | HC 合约前20名净持仓(手) | -19,032 | -5898↓ HC5-1 ...

国债期货日报 2026/1/19 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | | 环比 项目 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | T主力收盘价 | 108.040 | -0.02% T主力成交量 | 52248 | -16762↓ | | | TF主力收盘价 | 105.785 | -0.02% TF主力成交量 | 43774 | -19513↓ | | | TS主力收盘价 | 102.400 | 0% TS主力成交量 | 23651 | -10268↓ | | | TL主力收盘价 | 110.920 | -0.22% TL主力成交量 | 78148 | -15821↓ | | 期货价差 | TL2603-2606价差 | -0.11 | +0.02↑ T03-TL03价差 | -2.88 | 0.22↑ | | | T2603-2606价差 | 0.06 | +0.01↑ TF03-T03价差 | -2.26 | 0.00↑ | | | TF2603-2606价差 | -0.03 | +0.00↑ TS03-T03价差 | -5.6 ...