Core Viewpoint - HSBC significantly raised the target price for Pop Mart, citing the effectiveness of its multi-IP strategy and the healthy adjustment of Labubu pricing, with a target price increase from HKD 215.50 to HKD 331.50, representing a 53.8% increase and a 32% upside potential from the current stock price [1] Group 1: Financial Projections - HSBC raised the 2025 net profit forecast for Pop Mart by 24%, driven by strong performance in overseas markets and the successful launch of Labubu 3.0 [1][5] - The revenue forecast for 2025 was increased by 34% to RMB 14.325 billion, with an expected year-on-year growth of 183% [2] - The net profit forecast for 2025 is now projected to be RMB 7.856 billion, a 131% increase year-on-year, which is 23% higher than previous estimates [5] Group 2: Market Performance - Labubu 3.0 series launched in April 2025 gained unprecedented attention due to promotion by international celebrities and KOLs, leading to strong product momentum [2] - The resale prices of Labubu 3.0 have normalized, which is beneficial for maintaining the brand's health and reducing speculative hoarding [5] - The U.S. market revenue forecast was significantly raised from RMB 3.547 billion to RMB 5.509 billion, reflecting the positive outlook for overseas markets [2] Group 3: Multi-IP Strategy - The success of Pop Mart is not solely dependent on the Labubu IP, as new series releases and other IPs continue to engage consumer interest [3] - In Thailand and other Asian markets, these regions account for over 40% and 30% of overseas revenue, respectively, indicating a diverse revenue stream [3] - The Google search index for Crybaby, the company's fourth-largest IP, surged in the quarters following the peak interest in Labubu, demonstrating the sustainability of the company's IP operations [3]

Summary of the Conference Call for Pop Mart Company Overview - **Company**: Pop Mart - **Industry**: Toy and Collectibles Key Points and Arguments 1. **Product Release and Stock Strategy**: In early 2025, the release of first and second-generation products led to a stock price drop, but the company's IP popularity remained unaffected, with prices recovering afterward. During the 618 shopping festival, the high premium on Labubu's third-generation products prompted the company to restock to combat scalping and stabilize prices through multiple pre-sales, benefiting long-term brand development [2][4] 2. **IP Popularity and Market Trends**: Pop Mart's IP exhibits cyclicality, but the sugar gel plush category has amplified its appeal, significantly increasing popularity. Labubu's success in Southeast Asia has mirrored in the Chinese market, with a surge in North American interest noted from April 2025, indicating substantial future growth potential [2][5] 3. **Global Market Performance**: Labubu has shown strong global attributes, performing well not only in North America but also in the Middle East and South America, with notable influence in the Russian online market. The demand for Labubu in Southeast Asia has been robust since late April 2024 [2][6] 4. **Diversification of IP**: To mitigate risks associated with reliance on a single IP, Pop Mart has diversified its offerings by introducing more IPs like Gudetama, Pacha Dog, and Kuromi. In 2024, Gudetama accounted for approximately 20% of revenue, expected to remain below 40% in 2025 [2][7] 5. **Emerging IPs**: The company is actively promoting new IPs such as Crybaby, Xiao Ye, and Newcomer, with Crybaby gaining acceptance overseas and Newcomer appealing to a broad audience, including women, men, and children [3][9] 6. **BJD Product Line Expansion**: Pop Mart is exploring new categories like BJD (Ball Jointed Doll) figures, with the recent launch of Spenda generating significant social media buzz, indicating successful product innovation [10] 7. **Third-Party IP Licensing**: The company has excelled in third-party IP licensing, with products like the Nezha blind box increasing foot traffic and diversifying customer demographics. Collaborations with brands like Luckin Coffee have also been successful [11] 8. **North American Market Expansion**: As of May 2025, Pop Mart operates nearly 40 stores in North America, with a strong monthly opening rate and plans to expand further into Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Japan, South Korea, and the UK [12] 9. **Southeast Asia and Europe Marketing Strategies**: In Southeast Asia, new marketing strategies have been implemented to enhance user engagement, while localized marketing activities in Europe aim to attract customers through unique experiences [13] 10. **2025 Performance Outlook**: The company anticipates a total revenue of approximately 9 billion RMB for 2025, with a strong performance expected in the first half and potential upward revisions to forecasts [14] Additional Important Insights - The cyclical nature of IPs is acknowledged, with historical data showing stable revenue prior to the introduction of new popular products [5] - The company’s proactive approach to restocking and managing market expectations is seen as beneficial for brand health [4] - The diversification strategy is crucial in avoiding over-reliance on any single IP, as demonstrated by past industry examples [7]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Pop Mart may be entering the home appliance industry, as indicated by job postings for related talent on a recruitment platform [1] - Media reports suggest that a user on social media has claimed Pop Mart is hiring for positions in the home appliance sector [1] - Pop Mart has not yet responded to inquiries from Sina Technology regarding these claims [1]

Core Points - The CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen-Stock Exchange New Generation Consumption Index (SHS New Generation Consumption) opened at 1876.23 points, showing a monthly increase of 1.87%, a quarterly decrease of 2.80%, and a year-to-date increase of 15.68% [1][2] Group 1: Index Overview - The index comprises 50 listed companies from the food and beverage, apparel, leisure, and other consumer goods and services sectors that meet new generation consumption characteristics [1] - The index is based on a reference date of December 31, 2018, with a base value of 1000.0 points [1] Group 2: Top Holdings - The top ten weighted companies in the index are Xiaomi Group-W (10.6%), Tencent Holdings (9.92%), Meituan-W (8.83%), Pop Mart (8.76%), Kuaishou-W (7.7%), Yum China (5.66%), Anta Sports (5.65%), China Duty Free Group (2.8%), GoerTek (2.7%), and Shenzhou International (2.07%) [1] Group 3: Market Composition - The market composition of the index shows that the Hong Kong Stock Exchange accounts for 74.07%, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange for 17.32%, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange for 8.61% [1] Group 4: Sector Allocation - The sector allocation of the index sample includes discretionary consumption at 43.37%, communication services at 33.55%, information technology at 16.67%, staples at 5.17%, and healthcare at 1.23% [2] Group 5: Sample Adjustment - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with adjustments occurring on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December [2] - Weight factors are generally fixed until the next scheduled adjustment, with special circumstances allowing for temporary adjustments [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Pop Mart, under the leadership of founder Wang Ning, is expanding into the film industry by establishing a movie studio and launching an animated series titled "LABUBU and Friends" [2] - Pop Mart's initial business model was a "trendy grocery store" selling various products, and it gained significant traction after introducing the Japanese Sonny Angel blind box series in 2015, which became a key contributor to single-store sales [2] - The company is also diversifying its business by launching a physical magazine called "play/GROUND," priced at 39.9 yuan [2] Group 2 - As a leading IP toy company in China, Pop Mart's strategy includes developing online film business and offline theme parks, which are seen as logical growth paths [3] - The film industry presents significant profit potential, as evidenced by the success of "Nezha 2," which grossed over 15 billion yuan, and films can enhance IP emotional resonance and attract a broader audience [3] - The opening of the first Pop Mart theme park on September 26, 2023, aims to innovate and extend the IP image while creating new revenue channels and enriching the cultural value of the IP [3] - Despite the trend of integrating film and derivative products, the domestic market has not matured, and Pop Mart's approach of moving from derivatives to film development could contribute to a more competitive commercial ecosystem [3]

金十数据6月24日讯，野村发报告指，泡泡玛特(09992.HK)上周受多项不利因素出现调整，包括旗下标 志性IP Labubu二手交易价格显著下跌，及被内地官方媒体批评向未成年人销售盲盒等，集团股价于6月 16至20日下跌12%。然而，野村认为，短期股价疲软提供良好的入场机会，故上调目标价43%，由204 港元升至291港元，维持买入评级。野村认为，Labubu产品的二手交易价格下降主要是由于供应量的增 加而非需求量的减少；官方媒体亦旨在保护未成年人避免在交易卡上的过度或非理性消费，而非遏制泡 泡玛特的发展。整体而言，该行认为泡泡玛特的快速销售增长轨迹不会发生实质变化，尤其是受到美国 及欧洲市场强劲销售表现的支持。 野村：泡泡玛特股价短期疲软提供入场机会 升目标价43% ...

Core Insights - A traveler was found carrying a large quantity of counterfeit "POP MART" branded toys and packaging while departing from Beijing Daxing Airport, raising significant intellectual property infringement concerns [1] Group 1: Incident Details - Customs officials discovered 952 counterfeit toys and 1,586 pieces of plastic and paper packaging during a routine inspection of outbound luggage [1] - The traveler admitted to carrying these items for resale purposes, indicating a commercial intent behind the infringement [1] Group 2: Legal Actions - The customs authorities have detained the goods based on preliminary assessments of substantial infringement risks [1] - The rights holder, "POP MART," confirmed that the toys and packaging were unauthorized, leading to a formal request for intellectual property protection from customs [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in the stock prices of Pop Mart and its peers in the new consumption sector reflects a market correction, driven by high valuations and a cooling consumer sentiment [1][4]. Group 1: Pop Mart's Stock Performance - Pop Mart's stock price has dropped over 15% from its peak, resulting in a market capitalization loss of more than 500 billion HKD [1][2]. - The trading price of Pop Mart's popular IP, Labubu, has plummeted in the secondary market, with a 45% drop for hidden versions and a 54% drop for non-hidden versions [2]. - On June 20, Pop Mart's stock closed at 239.6 HKD per share, down 3.62%, with significant trading volume nearing 10 billion HKD and net selling by southbound funds reaching 617 million HKD, the highest since May 12, 2025 [2][3]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Valuation - The new consumption sector, including Pop Mart, Lao Pu Gold, and Mixue Group, has experienced a collective decline, with Lao Pu Gold down over 19% and Mixue Group down nearly 17% [1][4]. - Analysts indicate that the current high price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios in the new consumption sector suggest overvaluation, with Pop Mart's P/E ratio at 97.17, compared to traditional consumer giants like Kweichow Moutai at 20.04 [4]. - Some analysts warn that if market sentiment cools or consumer enthusiasm wanes, stock prices may face further adjustments due to inflated expectations [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite the recent downturn, some fund managers remain optimistic about the long-term growth potential of new consumption companies, focusing on emotional consumption, cost-effective products, and international expansion [5]. - Lao Pu Gold and Mixue Group have shown signs of recovery, with Lao Pu Gold rising nearly 6% after opening its first overseas store in Singapore, indicating strategic growth opportunities [6].

每经编辑｜马子卿 更名"消费物语"的这一天，小编发了一封致读者的信（《当"每经影视"决定成为你的"消费搭子" 买2万元冲锋衣的人和薅1.28元咖啡羊毛的人，在 这里神奇汇合》）。 这既是一次深情的告白，也是一次盛大的"宠粉"活动。我们邀请读者们在留言区写下与每经影视相识的故事，或是对消费物语的未来期许。从6月 18日到6月22日，欢迎大家在留言区留言。我们根据读者留言的点赞数量高低，"揪"出25位幸运儿，送上来自"消费物语"新朋老友的好礼。 这五天时间，是小编的幸福时光。每天都能收到让人感动的留言，比如读者小样儿说："三年前偶然读到朋友分享的每经影视对《战狼2》贴片广 告的深度调查，那些资本暗流与行业博弈的真相让我震撼，原来镜头之外的世界同样惊心动魄。你们用财经手术刀剖开文旅神话的泡沫、解读冲 锋衣两万元溢价背后的中产焦虑，让我从看客蜕变为清醒的观察者。期待更名后的你们继续在人间烟火中打捞时代切片，一手握物质脉搏，一手 抚精神脉络，做浮华世相里那束不灭的光。" 这篇刊发于2017年9月4日的报道《深度调查│<战狼2>搭载预告片不付费引爆"口舌" 背后暗藏30亿映前广告市场》，我们在公告信里并未提及。竟 能被小 ...

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Pop Mart (09992.HK) has significantly declined after reaching a historical high of 283.4 HKD, with a notable drop of 14.46% to 239.6 HKD, leading to a market capitalization loss of approximately 38 billion HKD, primarily driven by a sharp decrease in the prices of its flagship product, Labubu [2][9]. Group 1: Stock Price and Market Reaction - Following the news of Labubu's price collapse, Pop Mart's stock experienced a sharp decline, with a drop of over 6% on June 20, closing at 239.6 HKD, marking a 3.62% decrease for the day [2][9]. - The significant drop in stock price is attributed to the drastic reduction in Labubu's market price, which was exacerbated by a large-scale restock by Pop Mart [5][9]. - The market has seen a surge in short-selling activity, with short positions increasing from 1.438 million shares in early April to 3.692 million shares by June 17, a rise of 157% [10][12]. Group 2: Product Pricing and Market Dynamics - The price of Labubu's 3.0 series has plummeted, with the average transaction price dropping by 45% to 2547.84 RMB, and non-hidden variants experiencing a 54% decline [6][9]. - The drastic increase in supply due to Pop Mart's restocking efforts has outpaced market demand, leading to a rapid decline in secondary market prices [5][6]. - The overall market sentiment has shifted, with many consumers expressing dissatisfaction after purchasing Labubu at high prices, only to see their value drop significantly [9]. Group 3: Valuation Concerns - Pop Mart's current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio stands at 95.34, significantly higher than competitors, raising concerns about a potential market bubble [12][14]. - Analysts have pointed out that the high valuation of Pop Mart, combined with the recent price drops, indicates a possible overvaluation in the current market environment [14][18]. - The company's reliance on IP products, such as Labubu, poses risks due to the cyclical nature of IP popularity and the potential for diminishing returns as the novelty wears off [17][18].