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公募REITs周度跟踪:超跌反弹,申报加速-20251227
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-12-27 08:20
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Event disturbance factors weakened. The market continued its decline from the previous week on Monday and Tuesday, with a cumulative decline of 4.35% from the previous Monday to Tuesday this week. Market sentiment reversed on Wednesday and Thursday, with strong rebounds of 2.33% and 0.99% respectively, pushing the index back to the levels of last Tuesday and Wednesday, but the previous decline was not fully recovered. It fell slightly again on Friday. After the "decline → recovery" this time, equity REITs rose slightly by 0.12% overall, while concession - type REITs still fell by 3.61%. The pace of project declaration/acceptance on the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges significantly accelerated this week, laying a project reserve foundation for the supply - side growth of infrastructure REITs in 2026 [3]. - As of December 26, 2025, 20 REITs have been successfully issued this year, with a total issuance scale of 40.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 37.6%. Four newly - issued public REITs and two expanded - offering public REITs made new progress this week. There are currently 13 REITs in the approval process that have been declared, 1 has been questioned and responded, 1 has passed the review, and 1 has been registered and is awaiting listing. For expanded - offering REITs, 3 have been declared [3]. - This week, the CSI REITs Total Return Index (932047.CSI) closed at 1014.80 points, up 1.56%, underperforming the CSI 300 by 0.39 percentage points and outperforming the CSI Dividend by 1.01 percentage points. The CSI REITs Total Return Index has risen 4.85% since the beginning of the year, underperforming the CSI 300 by 13.51 percentage points and outperforming the CSI Dividend by 6.06 percentage points. In terms of project attributes, equity - type REITs rose 1.95% this week, and concession - type REITs rose 0.61%. In terms of asset types, the affordable housing, warehousing and logistics, park, and data center sectors performed well [3]. - In terms of liquidity, the average daily turnover rates of equity - type/concession - type REITs this week were 0.51%/0.60%, an increase of 12.26/18.43 BP compared with last week. The trading volume this week was 509 million/202 million shares, a week - on - week increase of 33.57%/43.95%. The environmental protection and water services sector was the most active [3]. - In terms of valuation, according to the ChinaBond valuation yield, the yields of equity - type/concession - type REITs were 4.08%/5.04% respectively. The transportation, warehousing and logistics, and park sectors ranked among the top three [3]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Primary Market: A Total of 4 Newly - Issued Public REITs Made New Progress - As of December 26, 2025, 79 REITs have been issued in total, with a total issuance scale of 203.5 billion yuan, a total market value of 219.9 billion yuan, and a circulating market value of 116.6 billion yuan. In terms of two major project attributes, 56 equity - type REITs and 23 concession - type REITs have been issued. In terms of eight major asset types, 8 affordable housing REITs, 11 warehousing and logistics REITs, 20 park REITs, 12 consumer REITs, 2 data center REITs, 13 transportation REITs, 10 energy REITs, and 3 environmental protection and water services REITs have been issued [14]. - Four newly - issued public REITs made new progress this week: 3 were newly declared/accepted (Huatai Three Gorges Clean Energy REIT, CICC Torch Industrial Park REIT, Bosera Shandong TieTou Road and Bridge REIT), and the fundraising of Huaxia CNNC Clean Energy REIT ended, with the offline and public effective subscription multiples reaching 340 and 392 times respectively. Two expanded - offering public REITs also made new progress: the expansion of AVIC Jingneng Photovoltaic REIT was completed, and the expanded shares of Guotai Junan Dongjiu New Economy REIT were listed [3]. - Currently, in the approval process, there are 13 REITs that have been declared, 1 has been questioned and responded, 1 has passed the review, and 1 has been registered and is awaiting listing. For expanded - offering REITs, 3 have been declared [3]. 2. Secondary Market: The Index Recovered This Week 2.1 Market Review: The CSI REITs Total Return Index Rose 1.56% - This week, the CSI REITs Total Return Index closed at 1014.80 points, up 1.56%, underperforming the CSI 300 by 0.39 percentage points and outperforming the CSI Dividend by 1.01 percentage points. The CSI REITs Total Return Index has risen 4.85% since the beginning of the year, underperforming the CSI 300 by 13.51 percentage points and outperforming the CSI Dividend by 6.06 percentage points [3]. - In terms of project attributes, equity - type REITs rose 1.95% this week, and concession - type REITs rose 0.61%. In terms of asset types, the affordable housing (+3.14%), warehousing and logistics (+2.20%), park (+2.11%), and data center (+1.80%) sectors performed well. Among individual bonds, 63 rose and 15 fell this week. CICC Chongqing Liangjiang REIT (+7.86%), Huaxia Fund China Resources Youchao REIT (+5.99%), and Bosera Tianjin Binhai High - tech Industrial Park REIT (+5.94%) ranked among the top three, while ICBC Inner Mongolia Energy Clean Energy REIT (-5.04%), Guotai Haitong Jinan Energy Heating REIT (-4.39%), and Harvest PowerChina Clean Energy REIT (-3.87%) ranked among the bottom three [3]. 2.2 Liquidity: Both Turnover Rate and Trading Volume Increased - The average daily turnover rates of equity - type/concession - type REITs this week were 0.51%/0.60%, an increase of 12.26/18.43 BP compared with last week. The trading volume this week was 509 million/202 million shares, a week - on - week increase of 33.57%/43.95%. The environmental protection and water services sector was the most active [3]. 2.3 Valuation: The Affordable Housing Sector Had a Higher Valuation - According to the ChinaBond valuation yield, the yields of equity - type/concession - type REITs were 4.08%/5.04% respectively. The transportation (6.20%), warehousing and logistics (5.61%), and park (4.82%) sectors ranked among the top three [3]. 3. This Week's Key News and Important Announcements Key News - On December 19, 2025, Shanghai Real Estate Group launched a tender for the public REIT fund manager and special plan manager of its commercial real estate REIT project [35]. - On December 22, 2025, the second selection for the 2025 rental housing public REIT fund manager and special plan manager service procurement project of Zhengzhou Chengfa Anju Technology Co., Ltd. was launched [35]. - On December 23, 2025, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued the "Several Opinions on Promoting the Large - scale Development of Concentrated Solar Power", proposing to support eligible concentrated solar power projects to issue REITs, asset - backed securities, etc. to revitalize existing assets and promote a virtuous cycle of investment and financing [35]. - On December 24, 2025, the tender result for the infrastructure REIT fund manager of Nanjiang Energy Group was announced, with GF Fund winning the bid. The annual fund management fee during the term is 0.2%, and the pre - issuance fee is 2.45 million yuan [35]. - On December 25, 2025, the Sichuan Securities Regulatory Bureau focused on the use of innovative financing tools, strengthened the interpretation of policies such as commercial real estate REITs, and encouraged enterprises to actively respond, conduct asset surveys, and prepare for the launch of commercial real estate REITs pilots. After the meeting, the Sichuan Bureau and the exchange visited enterprises interested in issuing commercial real estate REITs [35]. - On December 25, 2025, eight departments including the People's Bank of China jointly issued the "Opinions on Financial Support for Accelerating the Construction of the Western Land - Sea New Corridor", mentioning the need to make good use of diversified financing channels such as REITs to support the construction of the Western Land - Sea New Corridor [35]. - On December 26, 2025, Huang Jianshan, the deputy director of the Bond Regulatory Department of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, stated that the CSRC is steadily promoting the pilot of commercial real estate REITs [35]. Important Announcements - Multiple REITs announced dividends, including ICBC Hebei Expressway REIT, Hua'an Bailian Consumer REIT, CICC Puluosi REIT, and CITIC Construction Investment SPIC New Energy REIT [35][36]. - Some REITs announced their operation data for November 2025, including Huaxia Nanjing Traffic Expressway REIT, ICBC Hebei Expressway REIT, etc. [35][36]. - Some REITs announced the lifting of the ban on strategic placement shares, including China Merchants Science and Technology Innovation REIT, Huaxia Heda High - tech REIT, etc. [35][36]. - The expanded shares of Guotai Junan Dongjiu New Economy REIT were listed for trading, and the expansion of AVIC Jingneng Photovoltaic REIT was completed [36][37].
海外消费周报(20251219-20251225):海外教育:经营效率提升,利润率扩张提速——新东方2QFY26业绩前瞻-20251226
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-12-26 11:57
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the overseas education sector, particularly highlighting New Oriental as a key player [10]. Core Insights - The overseas education sector is experiencing improved operational efficiency and accelerated profit margin expansion, with New Oriental expected to report a revenue of $1.165 billion for Q2 FY26, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.2% [5][10]. - The report anticipates a significant increase in non-GAAP net profit for New Oriental, projected at $63 million, which is a 77.8% increase year-on-year, with a non-GAAP net profit margin of 5.4%, expanding by 2 percentage points [5][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Overseas Education - **Market Review**: The education index rose by 2.8% in the week of December 19-25, outperforming the Hang Seng Index by 1.8 percentage points, with a year-to-date increase of 13.1% [4]. - **Company Update**: New Oriental's revenue is expected to reach $1.165 billion, with the education business (including cultural tourism) contributing $957 million, a growth of 11% year-on-year [5][10]. - **Study Abroad Business**: The revenue from study abroad exam training and consulting is projected to decline by 3% to $242 million, reflecting a slowdown in growth due to high base effects from the previous year [2][5]. - **New Business Growth**: New business segments, including K9 competency training and learning machine services, are expected to grow by 21% to $364 million, driven by differentiated offerings for primary and secondary education [3][6]. - **Operating Profit Margin Improvement**: Despite a slowdown in high-margin study abroad business, the increase in competency business margins is expected to offset this. The non-GAAP operating profit margin is projected to expand by approximately 2 percentage points to 4.7% [6][10]. 2. Overseas Pharmaceuticals - **Market Review**: The Hang Seng Healthcare Index saw a slight increase of 0.02%, underperforming the Hang Seng Index by 1.24 percentage points [12]. - **Key Events**: Notable transactions include Sanofi's $2.2 billion acquisition of vaccine company Dynavax, which has a marketed hepatitis B vaccine and a promising shingles vaccine candidate [14]. - **Investment Recommendations**: The report suggests focusing on innovative drug companies with active business development opportunities and clinical progress in key pipelines, including companies like BeiGene and Innovent Biologics [15]. 3. Overseas Social Services - **Ctrip's Q3 Performance**: Ctrip reported a 16% year-on-year revenue increase to $18.4 billion, with strong performance across various business segments, particularly in international OTA platforms [17]. - **Tongcheng Travel's Q3 Performance**: Tongcheng Travel's revenue grew by 10% to $5.5 billion, with a notable increase in accommodation and core OTA business revenues [18]. - **Key Focus**: The report highlights potential growth in the outbound travel sector and the importance of hotel management services as additional growth drivers [19].
2025年11月煤炭行业热点事件复盘及投资策略:安监趋严供给收缩,看好旺季煤价修复
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-12-26 09:38
Group 1 - The report highlights the tightening of safety and environmental regulations in the coal industry, which is expected to impact supply and pricing dynamics [4][5][6]. - Domestic coal production growth is slowing, with November coal production showing a year-on-year decline of 3.3% in Shanxi province, while overall national coal production for the first eleven months of 2025 increased by 1.4% [23][25][33]. - Industrial coal demand remains stable, but thermal power demand is experiencing temporary pressure, leading to fluctuations in coal prices [10][61]. Group 2 - The report notes that the seasonal adjustment of national railway freight rates is expected to enhance the economic viability of coal production areas and increase price volatility during adjustment periods [9]. - The report indicates that coal prices are likely to recover in the fourth quarter due to seasonal demand increases, particularly in the context of winter heating needs [10][41]. - The coal supply-demand balance shows that the top ten coal companies account for approximately 50% of total coal production, with significant production contributions from major companies like China Energy Group and Shanxi Coking Coal Group [33][34]. Group 3 - The report emphasizes that coal imports have decreased significantly, with a 12% year-on-year decline in imports for the first eleven months of 2025, particularly from Indonesia and Russia [50][54]. - The report also highlights that the coal production in Xinjiang has been growing, with November production reaching 5 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 11.6% [41][42]. - The report discusses the resilience of the steel industry’s coal demand, with low inventory levels potentially supporting price rebounds [56][60].
厦门象屿(600057):锐意进取,多元业务有望与周期新起点共振
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-12-26 09:37
Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for Xiamen Xiangyu [3][9] Core Insights - Xiamen Xiangyu is positioned as a comprehensive investment holding group focused on bulk commodity supply chain services, aiming to become a global supply chain service provider. The company has shown a significant recovery in revenue growth and net profit in the first three quarters of 2025, driven primarily by its metal mining and energy chemical businesses [8][28]. - The report identifies three major trends reshaping the bulk supply chain industry: the strategic focus on supply chain autonomy amid geopolitical tensions, the transition from traditional trade to integrated service platforms, and the globalization of logistics networks following domestic manufacturing expansion [8][41][50]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The projected total revenue for Xiamen Xiangyu is expected to reach 387.75 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.7%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted at 21.84 billion yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 53.9% compared to the previous year [7][9]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is anticipated to be 0.77 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 11x [7][9]. Business Model and Growth Drivers - Xiamen Xiangyu's business model is evolving from traditional trading to a comprehensive service platform, focusing on value-added services that enhance customer operations. This shift is expected to stabilize revenue streams and improve profitability [8][50][54]. - The company has made substantial investments in fixed assets and is pursuing digital transformation and globalization as dual drivers for future growth. The shipbuilding segment is also projected to contribute significantly to profit, with a substantial order backlog [8][9][60]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - Xiamen Xiangyu's market position is strengthened by its diversified business operations, which include metal supply chains, logistics, and shipbuilding. The company is expected to benefit from the recovery in trade demand and improved industrial performance [8][30][60]. - The report compares Xiamen Xiangyu with peers such as Jianfa Co., Xiamen Guomao, and Sumida, noting that the average PE ratio for comparable companies is 14x, indicating a potential upside of 26% for Xiamen Xiangyu's current market valuation [9][30].
海外消费周报:新东方 2QFY26 业绩前瞻:海外教育:经营效率提升,利润率扩张提速-20251226
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-12-26 09:19
Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the overseas education sector, particularly on New Oriental, with an investment rating of "Buy" [12]. Core Insights - New Oriental is expected to achieve revenue of $1.165 billion in 2QFY26, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.2%. The education business (including cultural tourism) is projected to generate $957 million, up 11% year-on-year, while other businesses (mainly Dongfang Zhenxuan) are expected to reach $208 million, growing 18% year-on-year. The Non-GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company is anticipated to be $63 million, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 77.8% [6][12]. - The report highlights a slowdown in the growth of the study abroad business, with expected revenue of $242 million in 2QFY26, down 3% year-on-year. This slowdown is attributed to high-end consumption challenges in the one-on-one exam preparation segment. The company is adapting by shifting from one-on-one to one-to-many class formats to lower per-class costs and expanding services to younger students [2][6]. - New business segments, including K9 competency training and learning machine services, are projected to grow by 21% year-on-year to $364 million in 2QFY26. The company aims to enhance operational efficiency and profit margins through improved utilization of existing teaching resources [3][7]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The education index increased by 2.8% during the week, outperforming the Hang Seng Index by 1.8 percentage points. Year-to-date, the education index has risen by 13.1%, lagging behind the Hang Seng Index by 9.18 percentage points [5]. Company Updates - New Oriental's revenue forecast for 2QFY26 is $1.165 billion, with a Non-GAAP net profit of $63 million and a Non-GAAP net profit margin of 5.4%, expanding by 2 percentage points year-on-year [6][12]. - The report notes a significant decline in the growth rate of the study abroad business, with a projected revenue decrease of 3% year-on-year [2][6]. - The new business segment is expected to maintain strong growth, with a projected revenue increase of 21% year-on-year [3][7]. Investment Analysis - The report recommends focusing on Hong Kong vocational education companies, particularly China Oriental Education, due to a rebound in vocational training demand and the company's proactive operational adjustments. It also suggests monitoring higher education companies as profitability is expected to improve [12].
欧陆通(300870):高功率电源领军企业,AI浪潮助力公司业绩高增
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-12-26 08:56
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2][10]. Core Insights - The company, a leader in high-power power supply solutions, is expected to benefit significantly from the AI wave, leading to high growth in its server power supply business. Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 48.42 billion, 59.10 billion, and 69.33 billion yuan, with net profits of 3.80 billion, 5.06 billion, and 6.39 billion yuan respectively [7][10]. - The company has a diversified business model with three main segments: power adapters, server power supplies, and other power solutions, which collectively form a robust growth strategy [9][24]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company has over 20 years of experience in the switching power supply sector, evolving into a leading manufacturer of power adapters, server power supplies, and other power solutions. It was established in 1996 and has expanded its product offerings significantly since then [21][24]. 2. Server Power Supply - The company is positioned as a domestic leader in high-power server power supplies, expected to benefit from the increasing demand for AI computing power. The server power supply segment is projected to grow significantly, with revenue growth rates of 60%, 40%, and 28% from 2025 to 2027 [9][10][15]. - The company’s products cover a wide range of power requirements, including high-efficiency solutions tailored for AI servers, which are critical for meeting the evolving demands of the market [9][74]. 3. Other Business Segments - The power adapter segment remains a stable revenue source, while the company is actively expanding into new areas such as electric vehicle chargers and other specialized power products, which are expected to contribute to future growth [9][82]. - The company is leveraging the recovery in consumer electronics demand to boost its power adapter sales, with significant growth anticipated in the display market, driven by new technologies and increased gaming demand [82][85]. 4. Financial Projections and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve total revenues of 48.42 billion, 59.10 billion, and 69.33 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding net profits of 3.80 billion, 5.06 billion, and 6.39 billion yuan. The report suggests a target market capitalization of 311.45 billion yuan for 2026, indicating a potential upside of 21% from the current market value [10][15].
部委与地方学习中央经济工作会议精神解析:开局之年,地方如何因地制宜?
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-12-26 06:58
国内心局 2025 年 12 月 26 日 开局之年, 地方如何"因地制宜" ? 部委与地方学习中央经济工作会议精神解析 中央经济工作会议后,中财办、相关部委及地方政府迅速推进会议精神的学习贯彻工作。其释 放的增量信息与政策信号有何深意?本文分析,可供参考。 中财办对中央经济工作会议的解读更具体,突出内需结构性变化与"反内卷"的三个层次等。 中央经济工作会议后,中财办、相关部委及地方政府围绕扩大内需、反内卷、新质生产力等方 向,密集开展会议精神的学习、解读与部署工作。各部门和地区部署亮点纷呈:中财办研判消 带结构演变等,财税部门聚焦财力保障,经济大省侧重开放布局,边疆地区强化安全建设。 中财办解读中央经济工作会议精神,重点强调财政"为未来风险留有余地"与货币政策"前瞻 性、科学性调节"两大核心方向。融资条件方面,其提出"促进社会综合融资成本低位运行", 与此前货币政策执行报告"推动社会综合融资成本下降"的表述有所变化。 内需方面,中财办提出把握消费结构性变化,坚持投资于物与投资于人相结合。其指出"我国 正在从以商品消费为主转向商品消费和服务消费并重",契合今年消费现状;投资方面则聚焦 消费类基建,并提出"靠前 ...
部委与地方学习中央经济工作会议精神解析:开局之年,地方如何“因地制宜”?
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-12-26 06:17
宏 观 研 究 国内政策 中央经济工作会议后,中财办、相关部委及地方政府迅速推进会议精神的学习贯彻工作。其释 放的增量信息与政策信号有何深意?本文分析,可供参考。 中财办对中央经济工作会议的解读更具体,突出内需结构性变化与"反内卷"的三个层次等。 中央经济工作会议后,中财办、相关部委及地方政府围绕扩大内需、反内卷、新质生产力等方 向,密集开展会议精神的学习、解读与部署工作。各部门和地区部署亮点纷呈:中财办研判消 费结构演变等,财税部门聚焦财力保障,经济大省侧重开放布局,边疆地区强化安全建设。 中财办解读中央经济工作会议精神,重点强调财政"为未来风险留有余地"与货币政策"前瞻 性、科学性调节"两大核心方向。融资条件方面,其提出"促进社会综合融资成本低位运行", 与此前货币政策执行报告"推动社会综合融资成本下降"的表述有所变化。 内需方面,中财办提出把握消费结构性变化,坚持投资于物与投资于人相结合。其指出"我国 正在从以商品消费为主转向商品消费和服务消费并重",契合今年消费现状;投资方面则聚焦 消费类基建,并提出"靠前实施具备条件的'十五五'重大项目"。 改革方面,中财办注重统一大市场与"双碳"建设。"反内卷"层 ...
指数基金产品研究系列报告之二百六十五:政策受益、估值企稳,关注食品方向投资机会:华夏中证全指食品ETF
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-12-26 03:42
Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating [1][2] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The government has increased its emphasis on boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand, with multiple policies coordinated to promote the construction of the domestic economic cycle and the domestic demand system [2][7][8] - It is expected that the year-on-year pork price will gradually turn positive in the second half of 2026, which will support the CPI, especially the food CPI [2][14][20] - The CSI All-China Food Index selects leading companies in the food industry, with high price elasticity, strong offensive ability, and long - term stable excess return potential. Currently, the valuation of the food sector has bottomed out, and the medium - to - long - term allocation cost - effectiveness is prominent [2][22][50] - The Huaxia CSI All - China Food ETF closely tracks the CSI All - China Food Index, aiming to minimize tracking deviation and tracking error [2][52] Summary According to the Directory 1. Policy Emphasizes Expanding Domestic Demand and Boosting Consumption, Focus on Investment Opportunities in the Food Sector - **Policy Attention Increased: Boosting Consumption and Expanding Domestic Demand** - Multiple policies are coordinated to promote the domestic economic cycle and the construction of the domestic demand system. Since December, authoritative media and high - level authorities have continuously emphasized the importance of domestic demand and the significance of boosting consumption [2][7][8] - The "Qiushi" magazine pointed out that expanding domestic demand is a strategic move related to economic stability and security. The Central Financial and Economic Affairs Office stated that expanding domestic demand is the top priority for next year, and the National Development and Reform Commission emphasized the firm implementation of the strategy to expand domestic demand [2][9][13] - **Expected Gradual Recovery of Pork Prices, Focus on Food CPI Changes in 2026** - Since the second half of 2022, the CPI has been continuously declining and has been hovering at a low level since 2025, suppressing the contribution of prices to the profits of mass consumer goods [2][14] - Although the CPI was at a low level in 2025, the demand for dairy products showed signs of stabilization. The retail prices of milk and yogurt ended a three - year decline in the second half of 2025 [17][19] - Due to the structural surplus of production capacity and low breeding costs, the year - on - year decline in pork prices has widened since the second half of 2025. It is expected that the year - on - year pork price will gradually turn positive in the second half of next year, supporting the CPI, especially the food CPI [20][21] 2. CSI All - China Food Index - **Index Compilation: Selecting Leading Food Industry Companies** - The CSI All - China Food Index was released on July 15, 2013. It selects all listed company securities belonging to the tertiary "Food" industry from the CSI All - China sample space, aiming to comprehensively reflect the overall performance of A - share food industry listed company securities [22][25][26] - The index samples are adjusted semi - annually, with a single sample weight limit of 10% [26] - **Industry Market Value Characteristics: Industry Concentrated in the Primary Consumption Sector, with a Market Value Pattern Dominated by Leading Companies** - As of December 18, 2025, the index has 79 constituent stocks, with an average total market value of 1.6575 billion yuan. There are 3 stocks with a market value exceeding 10 billion yuan, and more than half of the constituent stocks have a total market value of less than 1 billion yuan [27][30][33] - The top ten constituent stocks have a total weight of 50.4%, and the top three weighted stocks are Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co., Ltd., Haitian Flavoring & Food Co., Ltd., and Shuanghui Development Co., Ltd., with weights of 10.52%, 9.05%, and 6.05% respectively [30][31][33] - The index is concentrated in the food sub - industries, especially in the seasoning fermentation products II, food processing, and beverage dairy sectors, with a combined proportion of over 64%, highly focusing on the food field directly facing consumers [33][34][39] - **High Index Volatility and Strong Offensive Ability** - Historically, the index has shown a clear offensive ability, especially in the market driven by the consumption sector, with long - term stable excess return potential. It also has significant high elasticity, with higher volatility and drawdown than the market broad - based index [40][42][45] - In the long run, the index has shown stable income growth ability, with a cumulative return and annualized return of 256.10% and 8.87% respectively, exceeding the performance of the CSI 300 Index and the CSI All - China Index during the same period, reflecting the long - term allocation value of the core assets in the consumption industry [42][43] - **The Valuation of the Food Sector has Bottomed Out, and the Medium - to - Long - Term Allocation Cost - Effectiveness is Prominent** - As of December 18, 2025, the price - to - earnings ratio of the index is 31.52, with a historical quantile of 22.26%, and the price - to - book ratio is 2.85, with a historical quantile of 5.32% [50][51][52] - The index has experienced an adjustment since the high in late 2020, and recently shows signs of stabilization, with limited downside risk [50] 3. Huaxia CSI All - China Food ETF - The Huaxia CSI All - China Food ETF (fund code: 159151) closely tracks the CSI All - China Food Index, aiming to minimize tracking deviation and tracking error. The fund started raising funds on December 22, 2025, and ended on December 26, 2025, with fund manager Wang Xinwei [2][52][55]
申万宏源证券晨会报告-20251226
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-12-26 00:42
Group 1: JD (京东) Analysis - The revenue for Q4 2025 is projected to decline by 0.4% year-on-year to 345.5 billion yuan, with adjusted net profit expected to be 216 million yuan, resulting in a net profit margin of 0.1% [2][12] - JD's retail revenue is anticipated to decrease by 4.7% year-on-year to 292.6 billion yuan in Q4 2025, primarily due to a high base effect from the previous year driven by national subsidies [3][12] - The company is expected to face pressure on growth in the battery-powered category, while the daily necessities category is projected to maintain relatively stable growth [3][12] - JD is actively responding to market changes by increasing subsidies, which may lead to a decline in retail profit margins year-on-year [3][12] - The company is focusing on its food delivery and international business, with expectations of narrowing losses in the food delivery segment in Q4 [12] - JD has launched "JD Review" to innovate the local life service ecosystem, aiming to provide objective consumer references [12] Group 2: Deer Chemical (迪尔化工) Analysis - Deer Chemical is transitioning from a cyclical business model to a growth-oriented one by integrating its nitrate production with molten salt energy storage [4][11] - The company is expected to see a gradual increase in production capacity starting in 2025, which will enhance its sales and overall performance [4][11] - The traditional business is anticipated to recover as the chemical industry stabilizes, with nitrate prices supported by liquid ammonia [11][13] - The demand for molten salt is projected to grow significantly due to its applications in concentrated solar power and flexible coal power generation [13][16] - The company aims to establish a complete product matrix involving potassium nitrate and sodium nitrate, enhancing its competitive edge in the energy storage market [16] Group 3: Unisoc (紫光国微) Analysis - Unisoc is collaborating with Ningde Times to establish a leading platform for automotive-grade chips, enhancing its market competitiveness [15][16] - The establishment of Unisoc Tongxin aims to optimize capital structure and improve performance in the automotive domain [16] - The company is expected to benefit from the growing demand for special integrated circuits driven by national defense and commercial aerospace sectors [16] - Unisoc maintains its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, projecting net profits of 1.723 billion, 2.460 billion, and 3.495 billion yuan respectively, with a strong growth outlook [16]