Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the metals and new materials industry, highlighting strong performance in various sub-sectors [3][4]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the overall performance of the metals sector has outperformed the broader market, with the non-ferrous metals index rising by 75.90% year-to-date, surpassing the CSI 300 index by 57.96 percentage points [4][8]. - Key drivers for the sector include a favorable supply-demand balance, particularly in energy metals and lithium, which have seen significant price increases [3][8]. - The report suggests that the recent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may lead to upward adjustments in valuation multiples across the sector, particularly for companies with stable supply-demand dynamics [3][8]. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.11%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.67%. The non-ferrous metals index increased by 2.56%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 2.99 percentage points [4][6]. - Precious metals saw a slight increase of 0.61%, while aluminum prices rose by 4.25%, and energy metals surged by 6.31% [3][8]. - Year-to-date performance shows significant gains across various metals, with copper up 96.09% and lithium carbonate prices increasing by 8.67% [8][12]. Price Changes and Key Company Valuations - The report details price changes for key metals, with copper prices at $10,888 per ton, reflecting a 24.17% increase year-on-year, while aluminum prices are reported at $21,300 per ton, up 7.68% year-on-year [13][15]. - The report provides valuations for key companies in the sector, indicating that companies like Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold have favorable price-to-earnings (PE) ratios, suggesting potential for growth [15][16]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report highlights that domestic social inventory of copper has increased slightly to 183,000 tons, while overall exchange inventories rose to 573,000 tons [22]. - The operating rates for copper processing facilities show a slight decline, indicating potential supply constraints in the near term [22][33]. - The aluminum sector is experiencing a tight supply-demand balance, with operating rates for downstream processing slightly decreasing [33]. Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with integrated operations and those showing cost improvement potential, such as China Aluminum and Zhongjin Lingnan Nonfemet Company [3][8]. - It also suggests monitoring companies in the renewable energy manufacturing sector, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing transition towards sustainable energy solutions [3][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Shaanxi Coal Industry [6][17] Core Views - The company reported a significant improvement in performance in Q3 2025, with a quarter-on-quarter revenue increase of 6.03% despite a year-on-year decline of 20.91% [6] - The rise in coal prices is expected to positively impact the company's earnings forecasts for 2026 and 2027, leading to an upward revision of profit estimates [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is projected at 169,913 million yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 7.7% [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 18,222 million yuan in 2025, reflecting an 18.5% decrease year-on-year [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 1.88 yuan, down from 2.31 yuan in 2024 [2] - The gross profit margin is forecasted to be 29.7% in 2025, a decrease from 32.7% in 2024 [2] Market Data - As of October 31, 2025, the closing price of the stock was 22.70 yuan, with a market capitalization of 220,077 million yuan [3] - The stock has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 12 for 2025, compared to an average of 15 for comparable companies [6][3] Operational Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company produced 13,037 million tons of coal, a 2.0% increase year-on-year, while sales volume rose by 1.8% to 11,938 million tons [6] - The average selling price of coal was 540 yuan per ton, down 13.0% year-on-year [6] - The company’s electricity sales volume in Q3 2025 increased significantly, with a year-on-year rise of 12.05% [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's Q3 performance met expectations, with a slight narrowing of price differentials during the traditional off-season, and asset impairment is expected to ease in the future [6] - The company reported a total revenue of 21.918 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 1.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.023 billion yuan, down 35% year-on-year [6] - The company is progressing well with its ongoing projects, which supports significant long-term development potential [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue forecast for 2025 is 30.78 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.4% [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is projected to be 1.499 billion yuan, a decrease of 26.1% year-on-year [5] - The company’s gross margin is expected to be 13.8% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 7.5% [5] - The company has adjusted its 2025 profit forecast downwards due to asset impairment, now expecting a net profit of 1.499 billion yuan compared to the previous estimate of 1.914 billion yuan [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for BYD, indicating a positive outlook compared to the market [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights BYD's stable operations and long-term investment value, with a core expectation of expanding overseas [1]. - Despite a challenging domestic market, BYD's product strength and potential for global expansion are seen as key drivers for future growth [9]. - The report adjusts revenue and profit forecasts for 2025-2027, reflecting a more cautious outlook while maintaining a positive long-term view [9]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - For 2025, total revenue is projected at 870,123 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 12.0% [8]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 36,724 million yuan, reflecting a decline of 8.8% year-on-year [8]. - The report anticipates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 24.1% for profits from 2025 to 2027, indicating strong growth potential despite short-term challenges [9]. Sales and Profitability - In Q3 2025, BYD's revenue was 194,985 million yuan, a decrease of 3.05% year-on-year, while net profit was 7,823 million yuan, down 32.60% year-on-year [9]. - The average selling price (ASP) per vehicle in Q3 was approximately 137,000 yuan, showing a slight decline [9]. - The overall gross margin for Q3 was 17.6%, reflecting a recovery in profitability [9]. Overseas Expansion - BYD's overseas automotive revenue in the first half of 2025 reached 83.1 billion yuan, with a gross profit of 22.7 billion yuan, indicating strong international performance [9]. - The report emphasizes the potential for overseas operations to contribute significantly to profit growth in the next 2-3 years [9].

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in the sector [38]. Core Insights - The animation micro-drama market is expected to experience explosive growth, with a projected market size surpassing 20 billion yuan. The market has seen a 12-fold increase in revenue over the past six months, driven by rising demand, technological advancements, and platform support [4][10]. - The current user demographic for micro-dramas is primarily young males in high-tier cities, contrasting with the female-dominated traditional short drama market. This demographic shift presents a unique competitive landscape [6][10]. - The industry is in its initial growth phase (1.0 stage), with future potential in IP derivatives and international expansion as the market matures [15][19]. Summary by Sections Market Dynamics - The micro-drama market is characterized by a combination of short drama and traditional animation features, catering to user preferences for engaging, fragmented content. The market is expanding rapidly, with a compound growth rate of 83% in supply and significant increases in viewership and engagement metrics [10][15]. - The report identifies three main drivers for the market's growth: increasing demand for diverse content, significant technological breakthroughs in AI, and strong support from platforms with extensive IP libraries [4][5][10]. Industry Structure - The micro-drama industry value chain includes IP script acquisition, adaptation, production, distribution, and platform operation. The report emphasizes the need for content diversification and the involvement of various stakeholders to build a robust ecosystem [19][24]. - AI technology is revolutionizing the production process, reducing production cycles by 80-90% and costs by 70-90%, thus enabling a more efficient and scalable production model [24][27]. Key Players and Investment Targets - The report highlights several key companies to watch in the micro-drama space, including Mango TV, Bilibili, and Reading Group, along with companies involved in IP content, production, and distribution [28][31][34]. - Specific companies mentioned include Chinese Online, Zhi Cheng Co., and Huace Film & TV, which are actively engaging in the micro-drama ecosystem through various initiatives and collaborations [32][34].

2025 年 11 月 02 日 中银基金李思佳:在均衡稳健中追 求可持续可复制的成长性收益 基金经理研究系列报告之八十六 申万宏源研究微信服务号 证券分析师 白皓天 A0230525070001 baiht@swsresearch.com 奚佳诚 A0230523070004 xijc@swsresearch.com 蒋辛 A0230521080002 jiangxin@swsresearch.com 邓虎 A0230520070003 denghu@swsresearch.com 联系人 落子 (8621)23297818× jiangxin@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 相关研究 中银基金李思佳: 剑桥大学金融硕士。具备 8年证券从业经验, 2 年投资管理年限。2017 ○ 年加入中银基金，曾任研究员、价值与周期组组长、基金经理助理。2023 年 10 月至今 任中银战略新兴产业的基金经理, 2025年 年 4 月至今任中银增长的基金经理,共计 2 只在 管基金，总管理规模达 20.58 亿元。 基金经理的投资策略：李思佳女士的投资风格相对均衡目稳健，在充分 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook compared to the market [1]. Core Insights - The company has shown revenue and profit growth, with total revenue for the first three quarters reaching 4.31 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 129 million yuan, up 15.1% year-on-year [6]. - The company is focusing on two main segments: display materials and application materials, with significant progress in both areas, including entering the supply chain of major clients like Samsung [6]. - The second phase of the UTG project has been optimized, with the full production date postponed to April 2026 to meet the increasing demands of the display industry [6]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue is projected to reach 6.42 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 31.2% [5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 207 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a significant increase of 47.4% year-on-year [5]. - The company's gross margin is forecasted to improve gradually, reaching 19.2% by 2027 [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Huafeng Aluminum (601702) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's Q3 2025 performance met expectations, with revenue of 9.1 billion yuan (yoy +18.6%) and net profit of 896 million yuan (yoy +3.2%) [6] - The company is focusing on product structure optimization and has introduced strategic new products to adapt to industry changes, maintaining a stable export ratio despite challenges [6] - Expansion plans for the Chongqing Phase II capacity are underway, which will enhance output and reduce costs [6] - The company is expected to benefit from increasing demand in related industries, maintaining profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections are 12.16 billion yuan for 2025, with a growth rate of 11.8% [5] - Net profit is forecasted at 1.33 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a 9.0% increase [5] - Earnings per share are expected to be 1.33 yuan for 2025, with a projected PE ratio of 13 [5] - The company aims for a net profit of 2.01 billion yuan by 2027, with a PE ratio of 9 [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the metals and new materials industry, particularly highlighting quality targets in gold, copper, and aluminum [3][4]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the metals sector has outperformed the broader market, with the non-ferrous metals index rising by 2.56% compared to a decline in the CSI 300 index [3][4]. - The report emphasizes the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut on the precious metals market, suggesting a long-term upward trend in gold prices due to low domestic gold reserves in China and increasing central bank purchases [3][21]. - The report identifies specific companies to watch, including Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and others in the precious metals sector, as they are expected to benefit from the favorable market conditions [3][4]. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.11%, while the Shenzhen Component increased by 0.67%, and the CSI 300 fell by 0.43% [4]. - The non-ferrous metals index has increased by 75.90% year-to-date, outperforming the CSI 300 by 57.96% [7]. Price Changes and Company Valuations - The report details price changes for various metals, noting that copper prices have seen a 24.17% increase year-to-date, while aluminum prices have risen by 13.03% [14]. - The report provides a comprehensive valuation table for key companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, indicating expected earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2023 to 2026 [18]. Precious Metals - The report highlights an increase in gold ETF holdings, indicating a growing confidence among investors in the precious metals market [21]. - The gold-silver ratio is noted to be at 81.9, suggesting potential for silver to catch up as demand recovers [22]. Industrial Metals - The report discusses the supply and demand dynamics for copper, noting a slight increase in domestic social inventory and a decrease in the copper treatment charge [27]. - For aluminum, the report indicates a slight decrease in the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises, while the overall supply-demand balance remains tight [39][41]. Small Metals - The report mentions the tight supply conditions for cobalt due to export restrictions from the Democratic Republic of Congo, and the strong demand for lithium in the energy storage sector [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The comic drama market is expected to explode in 2025, with a projected market size surpassing 20 billion [3][9] - The growth is driven by three main factors: increasing demand, technological breakthroughs, and platform support [3][4] - The industry is currently in the 1.0 growth phase, with future competition likely to focus on content quality and IP derivatives [3][14] Summary by Sections Market Dynamics - The comic drama market has seen a 12-fold increase in revenue over the past six months, with the number of related companies expected to exceed hundreds of thousands [3][9] - The target audience primarily consists of young males in high-tier cities, contrasting with the female-dominated live-action short drama market [5][9] Technological Advancements - AI technology has significantly reduced production time and costs, with some models cutting production cycles by 80-90% and costs by 70-90% [3][24] - The integration of AI tools across the entire production chain is enhancing efficiency and lowering barriers to entry [3][28] Industry Structure - The comic drama value chain includes IP script development, adaptation, production, and platform distribution [3][18] - The current bottleneck lies in content supply, necessitating a focus on expanding quality content and attracting diverse industry players [3][24] Key Players - Notable companies to watch include Mango TV, Bilibili, and Reading Group, with specific attention to those excelling in various segments of the comic drama industry [3][29] - The report highlights the importance of IP content providers, production companies, and platforms in driving the industry's growth [3][33] Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the comic drama market will continue to grow, with significant potential for IP monetization and international expansion [3][14]