Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for China Resources Beer Holdings [2][7] Core Views - The company is experiencing a clear earnings recovery with attractive valuation, supported by a strong premiumization strategy and cost optimization efforts [1][4][6] - The target price has been adjusted to HK$36 from HK$48, reflecting a 20x PE for 2025 [7][16] Summary by Sections Beer Business - The company is focusing on premiumization and cost optimization, with a clear growth momentum in the peak season. The "Three Refinements" strategy has led to the closure of inefficient factories and a reduction in sales and administrative expense ratios [4][13] - Despite a 2.5% YoY decline in beer sales volume due to weak catering demand and adverse weather, premium products saw over 9% growth, with Heineken's sales growing nearly 20% [4][13] - The beer gross margin improved by 0.9 percentage points to 41.1%, driven by a 1.5% increase in average selling price [4][13] Baijiu Business - The baijiu segment is led by the "Zhaiyao" product, which achieved a 35% YoY volume growth in 2024, contributing over 70% of baijiu revenue [5][14] - The company is focusing on core market strategies in regions like Henan and Shandong to accelerate the national expansion of "Zhaiyao" [5][14] 2025 Outlook - The outlook for 2025 indicates improved beer sales and profitability, driven by favorable weather conditions and new production capacity in Fujian [6][15] - The company aims for a beer gross margin of over 42% in 2025, supported by cost reductions and enhanced channel collaboration [6][15] Financial Performance - The report projects revenue growth from RMB 38.635 billion in 2024 to RMB 40 billion in 2025, with net profit expected to rise from RMB 4.739 billion to RMB 5.288 billion [2][12] - The diluted EPS is forecasted to increase from RMB 1.46 in 2024 to RMB 1.63 in 2025, reflecting a positive trend in profitability [2][12]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to multiple companies including Nike, Midea Group, JD Group, Gree Electric, Anta Sports, and Haier Smart Home among others [1]. Core Insights - The pet and gold jewelry sectors have shown the best performance, with significant growth driven by online sales and geopolitical factors affecting gold prices [4][5]. - The report highlights a divergence in sector performance, with luxury goods and pet sectors outperforming MSCI China, while other sectors like cosmetics and sportswear are experiencing negative growth [4][10]. Sector Performance Summary - **Pet Sector**: Increased by 4.2% this week, benefiting from high online sales growth, with brands like MaiFuDi and FrieGat showing year-on-year growth of 26% and 147% respectively [5][14]. - **Luxury Goods**: Continued strong performance in gold jewelry due to rising gold prices influenced by geopolitical risks and expectations of interest rate cuts in the US [5][14]. - **Snacks**: Experienced a slight pullback after previous gains, but companies show resilience with increasing production capacity and new product placements [5][14]. - **Sportswear**: Mixed performance with local brands experiencing a downturn, while international brands like Lululemon face challenges after lowering earnings guidance [5][14]. - **Cosmetics**: Continued decline over four weeks, impacted by discussions around collagen restructuring and pressure on domestic brands [5][14]. - **US Hotels and Credit Cards**: Both sectors declined due to risk-averse market sentiment [5][14]. Valuation Analysis - Most sectors are valued below their historical averages, with expected PE ratios for 2025 indicating potential undervaluation: - Sportswear: 14.5x (72% of 5-year average) - Luxury Goods: 23.1x (65% of 5-year average) - Gambling: 14.6x (24% of 5-year average) - Cosmetics: 33.9x (84% of 5-year average) - Pet Sector: 52.6x (54% of 5-year average) - Snacks: 25.3x (39% of 5-year average) - US Hotels: 28.0x (17% of 5-year average) - Credit Cards: 31.2x (60% of 5-year average) [6][15].

Group 1 - The report suggests that the Hong Kong stock market is expected to continue its bullish trend in the second half of the year, outperforming the A-share market due to the scarcity of assets related to current trends in AI applications and new consumption [1][5][6] - Historical analysis indicates that the current market conditions for Hong Kong stocks are reminiscent of the 2012-2014 period, where technological transformation drove superior performance compared to A-shares [3][8][10] - The report highlights that the AI application wave is accelerating, with Hong Kong technology companies having a first-mover advantage, which positions them to lead in the ongoing market uptrend [1][21][27] Group 2 - The macroeconomic environment is characterized by a weak recovery, similar to the 2012-2014 period, with AI applications emerging as a significant growth driver [21][23][26] - The report emphasizes that the current AI application landscape in China is expected to benefit domestic companies significantly, particularly in software and content applications [23][27][35] - The report notes that Hong Kong's technology sector has a higher proportion of software applications compared to A-shares, with 56% of the total market capitalization in Hong Kong's technology sector being in software and content, compared to only 24% in A-shares [35][42] Group 3 - The report identifies key Hong Kong technology companies that are well-positioned in the AI sector, including Tencent, Alibaba, and Meituan, which are expected to benefit from increased capital expenditure and cloud business revenue [43][44][46] - It is noted that the valuation of Hong Kong internet companies remains relatively low, with the Hang Seng Technology Index trading at a PE ratio of 20.7, indicating potential for upward valuation adjustments [51][52] - The report concludes that with strong earnings growth and improved capital inflows, undervalued Hong Kong internet stocks are likely to continue their upward trajectory [51][52]

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 15 Jun 2025 香港策略 Hong Kong Strategy 市场进入第二轮宽幅震荡，警惕微盘股、新消费及创新药波动加剧风险 Market Enters Broad Consolidation; Watch for Increased Volatility in Micro-Caps, New Consumption, and Innovation Drugs 周林泓 Amber Zhou 李加惠 Jiahui Li, CFA 上周我们认为市场或在顶部震荡后迎来第二波更大幅度的宽幅震荡；并强调规避短期过热的A股小微盘股以及港股新 消费板块。本周初，市场在对中美谈判的积极预期下风险偏好有所提升，但周四在缺乏进一步利好消息的情况下开 始回调，周五以色列伊朗冲突进一步导致市场风险偏好下降。具体来看，美股周五抹去本周涨幅，标普和纳指全周 小幅下跌，VIX恐慌指数升至21；港股连续两天回调，本周恒指微涨0.4%但恒生科技指数下跌0.9%；A股波动相对较 小，上证综指下跌0.3%，创业板指微涨0.2%，而科创50跌1.9%。行业来看，港股新消 ...

14 Jun 2025 中国可选消费 & 必需消费 China (Overseas) Discretionary & Staples 餐饮、潮玩及家电行业周报 F&B, Designer Toys and Home Appliance Sector Weekly Report [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus 研究报告 Research Report | [Table_Info] | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股票名称 | 评级 | 股票名称 | | 评级 | | 泡泡玛特 | Outperform 现代牧业 | | | Outperform | | 安踏体育 | Outperform 九毛九 | | | Outperform | | 百威亚太 | Neutral | 澳优 | | Outperform | | 海底捞 | Outperform | | | | | 华住酒店集团有限 | Outperform | | | | | 公司 | | | | | | 华润啤酒 | Outperform | | | | | ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or specific companies involved Core Insights - The FORCE 2025 conference showcased the launch of Doubao Large Model v1.6 and Seedance 1.0 Pro, along with an Agent development platform and AI-native IDE, focusing on cost reduction and ecosystem expansion [1][16] - TRAE, the AI-native development platform, has over 1 million active users and covers 80% of internal developers, indicating a strong adoption and a shift towards a new development paradigm [2][17] - The integration of various AI tools into a closed-loop system enhances productivity and supports multimodal collaboration, task orchestration, and knowledge memory [2][17] - The VeRL framework supports self-evolution capabilities for AI, enabling strategy optimization and model evolution in multimodal environments [3][19] - The terminal ecosystem is expanding, with new products like the "super agent" smart TV solution enhancing user interaction and engagement [3][20] - Real-world applications of TRAE and other core products demonstrate the feasibility of AI-driven software development, allowing non-technical users to create applications from natural language inputs [4][21] - The report highlights the competitive landscape, noting that while domestic IDEs like TRAE are developing, they still lag behind established overseas products in terms of speed and multi-scenario support [5][22] Summary by Sections Event Highlights - Volcano Engine hosted the FORCE 2025 conference, launching significant AI products and platforms aimed at enhancing development efficiency and ecosystem integration [1][16] AI Development Tools - The introduction of 12 Agent tools forms a comprehensive ecosystem that supports AI-native productivity, emphasizing human-AI collaboration and task automation [2][17] AI Self-Evolution - The VeRL framework is positioned as a key infrastructure for advancing AI capabilities from controllable generation to autonomous self-improvement [3][19] Terminal Ecosystem Growth - Collaborations with companies like Coolpad to create integrated smart solutions are expected to drive user engagement and open new growth avenues [3][20] Practical Applications - Successful deployments of AI tools in various business scenarios validate the effectiveness of AI engineering systems in real-world applications [4][21] Competitive Landscape - The report notes the need for domestic IDEs to improve usability and performance to compete effectively with established international products [5][22]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on companies benefiting from the return of the US semiconductor, biopharmaceutical, and machinery manufacturing industries, highlighting leaders in industrial automation such as Siemens, Emerson, Rockwell, ABB, FANUC, Yaskawa, and Mitsubishi Electric [5][58]. Core Insights - The added value of the US manufacturing industry was $2.6 trillion in 2022, accounting for 15.1% of global manufacturing value, ranking second globally after China [1][54]. - The proportion of US manufacturing in GDP has declined from 28.4% in 2001 to 10.7% in 2022, significantly lower than the global average of 17.5% [1][54]. - The US manufacturing sector has experienced a compound annual growth rate of 1.5% from 2017 to 2022, lagging behind the global average of nearly 3% [1][54]. - The "hollowing out" of the US manufacturing sector is characterized by a shift towards capital optimization, with significant reliance on imports for key components [2][55]. - The US government aims to reverse the decline in domestic manufacturing to ensure national security, particularly in critical sectors like semiconductors and medical supplies [2][30][55]. Summary by Sections 1. Current State of US Manufacturing - The US manufacturing sector's absolute value is not low, but its contribution to the economy is overshadowed by the service sector [1][9]. - The manufacturing sector's decline is evident in its GDP contribution compared to other major economies [1][9][12]. 2. Impact of US Reshoring on Industrial Automation - Industrial automation is crucial for reducing costs and improving efficiency through the integration of manufacturing processes [3][56]. - The US industrial automation market has significant growth potential, particularly in the context of low robot density compared to other economies [3][37]. - The competitive landscape features established giants like Siemens and ABB alongside new entrants, with increasing competition driven by technological advancements and policy support [4][57]. 3. Key Companies and Market Outlook - Major players in the industrial automation sector include Siemens, ABB, Emerson, FANUC, Yaskawa, and Mitsubishi Electric, each with distinct strengths and market positions [5][58]. - The pharmaceutical and medical technology sectors are expected to drive growth in industrial automation from 2025 to 2030, while other sectors face challenges [4][57].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an investment rating of "Outperform" for Chow Tai Fook, expecting a relative return exceeding the benchmark index by more than 10% over the next 12-18 months [20]. Core Insights - Chow Tai Fook's revenue for FY2025 was HKD 89.66 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 17.5%, primarily due to weak macroeconomic conditions and gold price fluctuations affecting consumer spending [2][8]. - Despite the revenue decline, the company achieved a gross profit margin increase of 5.5 percentage points to 29.5%, and operating profit rose by 9.8% to HKD 14.75 billion, benefiting from high gold prices and optimized product mix [2][8]. - The management anticipates revenue recovery in FY2026, projecting single to mid-single-digit growth, with same-store sales also expected to improve [2][8]. Revenue and Profitability - The net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 9.0% to HKD 5.92 billion, mainly due to revaluation losses on gold lending contracts [2][8]. - Chow Tai Fook plans to distribute a final dividend of HKD 0.32 per share, with an annual payout ratio of 87.8%, reflecting strong capital return capabilities [2][8]. Same-Store Sales Performance - Same-store sales faced pressure, with a decline of 19.4% in the mainland market and 26.1% in Hong Kong and Macau for FY2025 [3][9]. - However, there was a notable improvement in the second half of FY2025, with Hong Kong and Macau markets showing a retail sales growth of 6.3% year-on-year in early FY2026 [3][9]. Product Mix and Pricing Strategy - The contribution of priced gold products significantly increased, with a year-on-year revenue growth of 105.5%, while revenue from priced gold products dropped by 29.4% due to gold price fluctuations [4][10]. - The share of retail sales from priced gold products reached 18.6%, up 8.9 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a successful shift in product strategy [4][10]. Store Network Optimization - As of FY2025, Chow Tai Fook operated 6,274 stores in Mainland China, with plans to add 20 new image stores and expand into markets like Singapore and Canada in FY2026 [5][12]. - The company closed 896 stores in Mainland China during FY2025 but opened new image stores in key cities, enhancing its retail presence [5][12].

Market Overview - The stablecoin market has seen significant growth since 2020, with a current market capitalization of nearly $245 billion, representing about 7% of the total cryptocurrency market valued at approximately $3.4 trillion[15][18]. - Over 99% of stablecoins are pegged to the US dollar, with USDT and USDC dominating the market, accounting for 62.8% and 25.5% of the total stablecoin market capitalization, respectively[18][22]. Drivers of Growth - The growth of stablecoins is driven by their advantages in payment settlements, including efficiency, cost savings, and risk mitigation compared to traditional fiat currencies and other cryptocurrencies[15][22]. - Increased geopolitical risks and economic instability in emerging markets have created a demand for stablecoins as alternative currencies, with countries like Turkey seeing stablecoin purchases amounting to nearly 4% of their GDP[30][32]. Regulatory Developments - The passage of the "GENIUS Act" in the US marks a significant step towards establishing a regulatory framework for stablecoins, which is expected to enhance market development and attract more foreign investment[6][22][35]. - The act requires stablecoin issuers to maintain a 1:1 reserve of compliant assets for every stablecoin issued, which is crucial for maintaining trust and stability in the market[38][41]. Impact on Global Currency and Assets - Stablecoins are expected to strengthen the US dollar's dominance in the global monetary system, potentially challenging the effectiveness of monetary policy in countries with unstable currencies[41][43]. - While the expansion of the stablecoin market may increase demand for US Treasury bonds, its overall impact on short-term bonds is limited, and it does not alleviate the pressure on long-term bonds due to persistent fiscal deficits[45][48]. Risks and Challenges - The ongoing uncertainty regarding cryptocurrency regulations in regions like mainland China poses risks to the stablecoin market's growth and adoption[50]. - The reliance of stablecoins on the US dollar's credit may not be sufficient to counteract the potential damage to dollar credibility amid global de-dollarization trends[32][49].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The direction of the Japanese government bond market is marketization, with high interest rates posing risks and supply - demand balance being crucial [62]. - Japan's economic growth is expected to be 0.5 - 0.7%, driven by corporate investment, domestic consumption, and overseas markets [62]. - The inflation expectation is 2.5% this year and 1% in the long - term [62]. - Japan's fiscal policy is burdened by history, high welfare, and fiscal constraints [62]. - Japan's monetary policy aims at normalization and maintaining financial system stability [62]. - Regarding cross - border capital flows, there is a trade - off between short - term hedging and arbitrage tools and long - term investment value [62]. - Short - term attention should be paid to the BOJ例会, the Ministry of Finance's June meeting, and the July Senate election [62]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Japan's Government Bond Scale and Characteristics - The report may analyze Japan's government debt - to - GDP ratio and the classification of government bond holders in 2024 [6][9]. 3.2 History and Reasons for the Massive Government Debt - Japan's central government tax revenue and fiscal revenue - expenditure budget have changed over time, with the fiscal revenue budget increasing from 66.2 trillion yen in 1990 to 107.6 trillion yen in 2022 and expected to reach 115 trillion yen in 2025 [16][21][22]. - Population aging leads to an increase in future social security expenditures, which is one of the reasons for the massive government debt [23][25]. 3.3 Japan's Fiscal and Government Bonds - Analyze Japan's fiscal revenue - expenditure balance, fiscal deficit - to - GDP ratio, and compare it with other countries [28][29][30]. - Consider the interest rate and the interest burden of government bonds, where the interest rate refers to the weighted average of the current total government bond interest rate [31][32]. 3.4 Changes in Government Bond Yields and Their Impact on the Market 3.4.1 Reasons for the Rise in Government Bond Yields - Inflation expectation: Japan is moving out of deflation with a target inflation rate of 2% [38]. - Monetary policy: Ending negative interest rates and YCC, gradually raising interest rates to 0.5% in January 2025, and gradually reducing government bond purchase scale quarterly [38][45]. - Fiscal policy: There is public opinion about tax cuts [38]. - Changes in market participants and increased volatility, including the central bank, life insurance companies, domestic banks, and overseas investors [38]. 3.4.2 Impact of Rising Government Bond Yields - Fiscal policy: It requires fiscal self - discipline and the role of bond guardians [47]. - Monetary policy: There is pressure to raise interest rates and a need to adjust the QT rhythm [47]. - Cross - border capital flow: Japanese funds may flow back, and there are impacts on overseas funds and short - term funds (such as hedging transactions and yen carry trades) [47]. 3.5 Cross - border Capital - Japan's overseas assets in 2024 include direct investment, securities investment, financial derivatives, other investments, and foreign exchange reserves. The net overseas assets are 533,050 trillion yen, with an increase of 60,861 trillion yen compared to the previous year - end [53][54]. - The yen carry trade uses the long - term ultra - low interest rate and high liquidity of the yen to borrow yen and invest in high - yield assets for profit. After the unwind in August 2024 and April 2025, the current scale may be small [60].