Price Trends - In March 2025, the CPI decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, while the PPI fell by 2.5%, indicating a marginal expansion in the decline[2] - The month-on-month CPI dropped by 0.4%, aligning with seasonal patterns, and the year-on-year decline narrowed[3] - Core CPI showed a marginal recovery, primarily due to the effects of the "trade-in" policy, which supported prices of household appliances and electronics[3] Consumption and Demand - Overall consumption and service demand remain weak, necessitating further policy support[2] - March food prices fell by 1.4% month-on-month, with significant declines in fresh vegetables, pork, and eggs[6] - The average price of live pigs was approximately 14.6 yuan/kg, remaining below 15 yuan/kg for three consecutive months[6] PPI Dynamics - The PPI saw an expanded decline of 0.4% month-on-month and 2.5% year-on-year, influenced by falling international oil prices and weak domestic demand[12] - The upstream mining sector experienced a month-on-month price drop of 2.9%, while raw material prices shifted from a 0.1% increase to a 0.6% decrease[12] - The prices of durable consumer goods fell by 1.0%, indicating a potential "price war" as companies aim to boost sales[12] Policy Implications - Increased urgency for monetary policy adjustments, including RRR cuts and interest rate reductions, is anticipated[2] - Fiscal measures are expected to include accelerated special bond issuance and enhanced consumption subsidies[2] - The ongoing tariff disturbances and rising external risks suggest that further growth-stabilizing policies are likely to be implemented[2] Risks - Uncertainty in real estate trends persists, and the strength of policy measures may be weaker than expected[21]

[Table_MainInfo] 行业研究/公用事业 证券研究报告 行业周报 2025 年 04 月 14 日 [Table_AuthorInfo] 关税变化，电力无忧 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 关税有利火电公司盈利继续向上。美国对中国加征收 125%的关税，中国 也对美也加征同等关税，目前美中贸易摩擦愈演愈烈，对双方经济都会有 一定影响，对于电力板块而言，需求增速下降，电价或有影响，但若是火 电，电价下行空间或可被煤价的下降抵消，进而业绩持续增长，目前火电 仍是全球增速下行下的最优投资品种之一。关税影响下，部分电力企业提 议增持计划，如中国核电董事长卢铁忠提议以 3 亿至 5 亿元回购股份，用 于减资或股权激励，以维护股东利益、提升公司价值。 新能源弃光较多，兰木达建议疏导到用户。自 2025 年 1 月起，进入现货 市场的典型新能源大省直调光伏发电实际值都偏低，存在明显的弃光现 象，蒙西、山西、山东、甘肃：光伏发电实际值与预测值的比例总体在 70% 上下波动。兰木达判断：1）新能源装机不断增加可能导致弃电继续上升。 2）同时新能源发电增加导致新能源大发时段，电价持续走低，不利于新 能源资 ...

[Table_MainInfo] 仍需警惕通胀上行风险 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 宏观研究 证券研究报告 宏观专题 美国通胀超预期降温。3 月美国 CPI 同比增速为 2.4%，较 2 月明显回落 0.4 个百分 点，低于市场预期（2.5%）。核心 CPI 同比为 2.8%，较 1 月回落 0.3 个百分点，同 样低于市场预期的 3%。 从环比来看，3 月 CPI 环比为-0.1%，较 2 月明显回落 0.3 个百分点，为 2022 年 7 月以来首次回落至负值区间；核心 CPI 季调环比为 0.1%，较 2 月回落 0.1 个百分点。 此外，3 月核心 CPI 季调环比折年率由 2 月的 2.8%明显回落至 0.7%。 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 20/03 21/03 22/03 23/03 24/03 25/03 食品 核心商品 能源 核心服务 CPI同比 数据来源：Wind，HTI 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 2025 年 3 月美国通胀超预期降温。3 月美国 CPI 同比增速为 2.4%，较 2 月明 显回落 0.4 个百分点，低于市场预期（2. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [2][7]. Core Views - The maternity subsidy policy is expected to strengthen domestic demand for infant formula, leading to a recovery in sales [3][11]. - The company plans to invest 1.2 billion yuan in a nationwide birth subsidy program starting in April 2025, providing monthly subsidies of one can of infant formula for five months to new mothers [3][11]. - The new product Zhuo Rui has significantly outperformed older products, becoming the company's largest single product, with sales increasing over 60% year-on-year [4][12]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 20.749 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 6.2%, with a net profit of 3.570 billion yuan, up 5.3% [4][12]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 66.3%, an increase of 1.5 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to reduced price promotions and lower raw material costs [5][13]. - The payout ratio for dividends was approximately 76% in 2024, with expectations for continued growth in absolute dividend amounts [6][14]. Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are set at 22.11 billion, 23.75 billion, and 25.50 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 3.96 billion, 4.34 billion, and 4.65 billion yuan [7][15]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are 0.44, 0.48, and 0.51 yuan, respectively [7][15]. - The target price for the stock is set at HK$7.00, based on a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 15 for 2025 [2][15].

研究报告 Research Report 14 Apr 2025 颐海国际 YIHAI INTERNATIONAL HOLDING (1579 HK) 率先布局海外蓄力，第三方客户提振业绩 Take the lead in laying out overseas, and third party boost performance [Table_yemei 观点聚焦 1] Investment Focus [Table_Info] 维持优于大市 Maintain OUTPERFORM 评级 优于大市 OUTPERFORM 现价 HK$13.42 目标价 HK$16.55 HTI ESG 1.2-3.0-3.0 E-S-G: 0-5, (Please refer to the Appendix for ESG comments) 市值 HK$13.91bn / US$1.79bn 日交易额 (3 个月均值) US$10.32mn 发行股票数目 1,037mn 自由流通股 (%) 56% 1 年股价最高最低值 HK$18.28-HK$10.62 注：现价 HK$13.42 为 2025 年 04 月 11 日收盘 ...

研究报告 Research Report 14 Apr 2025 华特气体 Guangdong Huate Gas (688268 CH) 深化国内外市场布局，推进销售模式转型 Deepening the Layout of Domestic and International Markets, Promoting the Transformation of Sales Model [Table_yemei 观点聚焦 1] Investment Focus [Table_Info] 维持优于大市 Maintain OUTPERFORM 评级 优于大市 OUTPERFORM 现价 Rmb54.17 目标价 Rmb64.60 HTI ESG 5.0-5.0-5.0 E-S-G: 0-5, (Please refer to the Appendix for ESG comments) 市值 Rmb6.52bn / US$0.89bn 日交易额 (3 个月均值) US$16.08mn 发行股票数目 120.39mn 自由流通股 (%) 39% 1 年股价最高最低值 Rmb64.39-Rmb39.44 注：现价 Rmb ...

Huawei Cloud CloudMatrix 384: Hyper-Node Breakthrough and the Independent Rise of Domestic AI [Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 14 Apr 2025 中国电子 China (A-share) Technology 华为云 CloudMatrix 384：超节点突破与国产算力的自主崛起 姚书桥 Barney Yao 邓雅文 Linda Deng barney.sq.yao@htisec.com linda.yw.deng@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 热点速评 Flash Analysis [(Table_summary] Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 事件 2025 年 4 月 10 日，以"聚力共创，加速行业智能跃迁"为主题的华为云生态大会 2025 在安徽芜湖召开。华为公 司常务董事及云计算 CEO 张平安在大会上公布了 AI 基础设施架构突破性新进展。推出基于新型高速总线架构的 CloudMatr ...

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 13 Apr 2025 美国宏观 US Macro 特朗普的"灵活"关税和扩张野心难以复兴美国 Trump's "flexible" tariffs and expansionist ambitions are unlikely to revive the United States 周林泓 Amber Zhou amber.lh.zhou@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [(Table_summary] Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 上周一，美股市场上传出暂停关税的类似新闻，但在 10 分钟后被白宫澄清。然后在数天后，原本被澄清的"fake news"，被特朗普亲口证实。这里我们可以看出几点问题。首先，特朗普的言论和表现被市场视为对中国反制的 软弱回应，因为他也害怕其他国家统一战线。第二，特朗普在关税政策上摇摆不定，任何时候都有可能改变之前 的想法。这种政策的极度不稳定性，加剧了市场的恐慌。第三，在特朗普表示要暂停其他国 ...

[Table_MainInfo] 策略研究 证券研究报告 策略研究 2025 年 4 月 12 日 [Table_Title] 2025Q1 陆股通加仓大制造 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： [Table_Summary] A 股：2025Q1 陆股通加仓大制造。最近一周（2025/4/7-2025/4/11，下 同）交易日期间北向资金估算净流出 27 亿元，前一周（2025/3/31- 2025/4/03，下同）估算净流出 138 亿元。最近一周交易日期间灵活型 外资估算净流出 39 亿元，前一周估算净流出 87 亿元。此外，4 月 8 日，2025Q1 陆股通持股数据正式披露。2025Q1 北向资金整体流入 114 亿元，上一季度流出 1384 亿元。结构上，2025Q1 北向资金整体 流入汽车、电子、机械设备等靠前，整体流出公用事业、通信、家用 电器等靠前。 港股：南下资金大幅净流入。根据港交所中央结算系统持股明细数 据，最近一周（2025/4/2-2025/4/8）各类资金合计流入港股市场 420 亿 港元，其中稳定型外资流出 349 亿港元，灵活型外资流出 50 亿港元， 港股通流入 7 ...

研究报告 Research Report 13 Apr 2025 香港医疗 Hong Kong Health Care 港股医药行业周报（250407-0411），关注美国关税政策演变及内需 Weekly Report on the Hong Kong Stock Market Pharmaceutical Industry: Focus on the Evolution of US Tariff Policies and Domestic Demand [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus | 股票名称 | 评级 | 股票名称 | 评级 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 京东健康 | Outperform 固生堂 | | Outperform | | 药明生物 | Outperform 诺辉健康-B | | Outperform | | 阿里健康 | Outperform 康宁杰瑞 | | Outperform | | 康方生物 | Outperform 复宏汉霖 | | Outperform | | 中国生物制药 | Outperform 和誉 ...