Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Overweight" [7] Core Insights - The potential for investment growth in new infrastructure remains significant, with a focus on expanding effective investment space and enhancing private investment vitality [2][3] - Central enterprises are encouraged to identify new growth areas, particularly in renewable energy, aerospace, and low-altitude economy sectors [4] - The government is increasing support for capital in key infrastructure projects, including railways and smart construction initiatives [5] Summary by Relevant Sections Recent Key Reports - The report highlights the importance of strategically expanding investment in new infrastructure and emphasizes the need for a coordinated approach to urbanization and rural revitalization [3][4] Key Company Recommendations - Recommended companies include China Railway, China Communications Construction, and China State Construction, all of which are expected to benefit from high dividend yields and stable growth [8][11] - Specific sectors such as clean rooms, commercial aerospace, and controlled nuclear fusion are highlighted for their growth potential, with recommended stocks including Yaxiang Integration and Shanghai Port [6][10] Macro/Meso/Micro Data - The report indicates a projected increase in broad infrastructure funding by 7.3% in 2025, driven by enhanced fiscal policies and the issuance of special bonds [31][32] - It also notes that the construction industry is experiencing a decline in net profit margins, with a 10% year-on-year decrease in net profit reported [14][15]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the daily usage of Doubao Tokens has surpassed 50 trillion, ranking first in China and third globally. The gaming market is expected to grow steadily by 2025, with female-oriented games experiencing growth rates significantly above the industry average [2][4]. Industry Summary - The Doubao model was launched by Huoshan Engine, with significant improvements in capabilities, including enhanced agent abilities, multimodal capabilities, and context management [8][9]. - The domestic gaming market is projected to reach a revenue of 350.79 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.68%. Mobile games, PC games, and console games are expected to see growth rates of 7.92%, 14.97%, and 86.33%, respectively [13][19]. - The female-oriented gaming segment is rapidly expanding, with a market size of 8 billion yuan in 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 124.1% [19]. - The report recommends investment in specific companies within the media sector, including Wanda Film, Perfect World, and Mango Super Media, among others, due to their potential for sustained high growth [7][21].

特许经营权领跌，指数加速下探 [Table_Authors] 刘玉(分析师) REIT 策略周报 本报告导读： 当前市场普跌下也蕴含着配置机会，可关注超跌优质项目的反弹机会。 债 券 研 究 投资要点： 债券研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.12.21 | | 021-38038263 | | --- | --- | | | liuyu6@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880523050002 | | | 汤志宇(分析师) | | | 021-38031036 | | | tangzhiyu@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525070031 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 转债估值及常规因子表现数据库（251215- 251219） 2025.12.20 年内地方债发行金额突破 10 万亿 2025.12.17 12 月第二周大行资金融出回升明显 2025.12.16 高速板块领跌，指数至阶段新低 2025.12.14 理解重要会议后的债市波动：三个层次的分析 2025.12.14 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 市 场 策 略 ...

- The liquidity shock indicator based on the CSI 300 index was 0.41 on Friday, lower than the previous week (0.51), indicating that the current market liquidity is higher than the average level of the past year by 0.41 standard deviations[2] - The PUT-CALL ratio of SSE 50ETF options trading volume fluctuated downward, being 0.83 on Friday, lower than the previous week (1.08), indicating a decrease in investors' caution about the short-term trend of SSE 50ETF[2] - The five-day average turnover rates of the SSE Composite Index and Wind All A Index were 1.05% and 1.60%, respectively, at the 68.85% and 73.75% percentiles since 2005, indicating a decline in trading activity[2] - The RMB exchange rate fluctuated last week, with the onshore and offshore exchange rates rising by 0.2% and 0.28%, respectively[2] - The SAR indicator showed that the Wind All A Index broke through the reversal indicator on December 1[12] - The moving average strength index, calculated using Wind secondary industry indices, scored 170, at the 60.6% percentile since 2023[12] - The sentiment model score was 0 out of 5, with the trend model signal being negative and the weighted model signal also being negative[12] - The congestion degree of the profitability factor continued to rise, with the small-cap factor congestion degree at 0.22, low-valuation factor at -0.51, high-profitability factor at 0.05, and high-growth factor at 0.22[4][19] - The congestion degree of industries such as communication, non-ferrous metals, comprehensive, electrical equipment, and basic chemicals was relatively high, with the congestion degree of the national defense and military industry and retail industry rising significantly[4][21]

Group 1: Market Performance Overview - Southeast Asia ETF increased by 1.59%, outperforming China, India, the US, Japan, and Latin America, but underperforming Africa and the UK[6] - Southeast Asia Technology ETF decreased by 4.76%, lagging behind the overall Southeast Asia ETF by 6.36 percentage points[6] Group 2: Country-Specific ETF Performance - iShares MSCI Indonesia ETF fell by 0.42%, underperforming by 2.02 percentage points, with stable market conditions but structural consumption pressures[7] - iShares MSCI Singapore ETF declined by 0.81%, underperforming by 2.40 percentage points, due to cautious market sentiment from divided business confidence[7] - iShares MSCI Thailand ETF rose by 0.44%, underperforming by 1.16 percentage points, amid limited effects of monetary easing and structural growth challenges[7] - iShares MSCI Malaysia ETF increased by 3.73%, outperforming by 2.14 percentage points, supported by currency appreciation and external capital inflows[7] - Global X MSCI Vietnam ETF dropped by 1.00%, underperforming by 2.59 percentage points, with strong foreign capital inflows contrasted by debt risk concerns[7] Group 3: Key Economic Indicators - Indonesia's economic growth forecast for 2025-2026 was raised to 5% by the World Bank, driven by strong exports and investment growth[16] - Singapore's GDP growth forecast for 2025 was adjusted down to a range of 1%-3%, reflecting weakened short-term economic momentum[19] - Thailand's GDP growth forecast for 2026 was lowered to 1.5%, with inflation expected to return to target only by 2027[21] Group 4: Risk Factors - Risks include macroeconomic downturns and geopolitical uncertainties, which could impact market performance across the region[34]

Investment Rating - The report rates the food and beverage industry as "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - The expansion of domestic demand is being elevated to a strategic level, and the consumption sector is expected to rebound from the bottom. The liquor sector, particularly Wuliangye, is set to focus on high-quality sales and market share enhancement for 2026. The dairy product sector is anticipated to experience a cyclical reversal [3][9] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes growth as the main line of investment, highlighting opportunities at turning points under supply and demand clearing. Recommended stocks include: 1. Liquor: Shanxi Fenjiu, Gujing Gongjiu, Yingjia Gongjiu, Jiuziyuan, Zhenjiu Lidu, Shede Liquor, and Jinhuijiu for growth; Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao as stable picks [8] 2. Beverages: Eastroc Beverage and Nongfu Spring (Hong Kong stock) for structural high growth; China Foods, Master Kong Holdings, Uni-President China, and China Wangwang (all Hong Kong stocks) for low valuation and high dividends [8] 3. Snacks and food raw materials: Recommended stocks include Bailong Chuangyuan, Yanjinpuzi, Weilong Delicious (Hong Kong stock), Three Squirrels, and Ximai Foods [8] 4. Beer: Recommendations include Yanjing Beer, Qingdao Beer, Zhujiang Beer, and China Resources Beer (Hong Kong stock) [8] 5. Seasonings and livestock: Recommended stocks include Qianhe Flavor Industry, Baoli Foods, Babi Foods, Anjui Foods, Haitian Flavoring, Angel Yeast, Yili, New Dairy, Youran Livestock (Hong Kong stock), and Modern Animal Husbandry (Hong Kong stock) [8] Liquor Sector - Wuliangye has set its 2026 target as a "Year of Marketing Integrity and Innovation," focusing on enhancing market share and product matrix restructuring. The company aims to ensure channel collaboration and protect merchant rights, with a focus on maintaining high-end liquor market share while restructuring the pricing system [10][11][13] Consumer Goods - The dairy product sector is expected to see a cyclical reversal, driven by new fertility policies and domestic demand expansion. The Eastroc Beverage is expanding its product categories and is expected to exceed market expectations [14][16]

- The high-frequency skewness factor had long-short returns of 0.67% last week, -1.18% in December, and 22.39% year-to-date 2025[5] - The intraday downside volatility factor had long-short returns of 0.87% last week, -1.33% in December, and 19.08% year-to-date 2025[5] - The post-open buying intention proportion factor had long-short returns of 0.66% last week, 0.61% in December, and 21.12% year-to-date 2025[5] - The post-open buying intention intensity factor had long-short returns of 0.46% last week, 0.94% in December, and 28.09% year-to-date 2025[5] - The post-open large order net buying proportion factor had long-short returns of -0.21% last week, 0.17% in December, and 22.11% year-to-date 2025[5] - The post-open large order net buying intensity factor had long-short returns of -0.25% last week, 0.38% in December, and 12.5% year-to-date 2025[5] - The intraday return factor had long-short returns of 0.35% last week, 0.91% in December, and 22.33% year-to-date 2025[5] - The end-of-day trading proportion factor had long-short returns of -0.94% last week, 1.04% in December, and 16.73% year-to-date 2025[5] - The average single transaction outflow proportion factor had long-short returns of -1.15% last week, -2.15% in December, and -8.11% year-to-date 2025[5] - The large order push-up factor had long-short returns of 0.41% last week, -0.93% in December, and 7.19% year-to-date 2025[5] - The GRU(10,2)+NN(10) factor had long-short returns of 1.13% last week, -0.47% in December, and 47.04% year-to-date 2025, with long-only excess returns of -0.2% last week, -0.26% in December, and 7.1% year-to-date 2025[5] - The GRU(50,2)+NN(10) factor had long-short returns of 1.66% last week, 0.19% in December, and 47.39% year-to-date 2025, with long-only excess returns of 0.15% last week, 0.06% in December, and 8.92% year-to-date 2025[5] - The multi-granularity model (5-day label) factor had long-short returns of 2.46% last week, 1.12% in December, and 68.13% year-to-date 2025, with long-only excess returns of 0.74% last week, -0.18% in December, and 24.48% year-to-date 2025[5] - The multi-granularity model (10-day label) factor had long-short returns of 2.26% last week, 1.11% in December, and 62.71% year-to-date 2025, with long-only excess returns of 0.76% last week, -0.5% in December, and 24.3% year-to-date 2025[5] - The weekly rebalanced CSI 500 AI-enhanced wide constraint portfolio had excess returns of 0.41% last week, -2.64% in December, and 5.46% year-to-date 2025[5] - The weekly rebalanced CSI 500 AI-enhanced strict constraint portfolio had excess returns of 0.92% last week, -1.62% in December, and 9.23% year-to-date 2025[5] - The weekly rebalanced CSI 1000 AI-enhanced wide constraint portfolio had excess returns of 1.55% last week, -2.69% in December, and 15.39% year-to-date 2025[5] - The weekly rebalanced CSI 1000 AI-enhanced strict constraint portfolio had excess returns of 1.48% last week, -1.45% in December, and 19.02% year-to-date 2025[5]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the banking sector [6] Core Insights - The report highlights a trend of deposit migration from small and medium-sized banks to larger banks, with a notable increase in financial bonds issued by large banks due to capital replenishment needs [2][3] - On the asset side, there is a slowdown in long-term loans from large banks and a significant reduction in short-term loans from small banks, attributed to risk considerations and weak consumer loan demand [4] Summary by Sections 1. November Income and Expenditure Table - Personal deposits decreased by 106.5 billion yuan year-on-year, with demand for both current and fixed-term savings declining [3] - Corporate deposits saw a year-on-year decrease of 49.4 billion yuan, with a notable increase in fixed-term deposits from large banks [3] - Non-bank deposits decreased by 10.6 billion yuan, indicating a trend of residents moving their deposits from small banks to larger banks [3] - Financial bonds increased by 160.4 billion yuan year-on-year, primarily driven by large banks issuing more perpetual bonds and TLAC bonds [3] 2. Asset Side Analysis - Total loans decreased by 421.6 billion yuan year-on-year, with short-term loans seeing a significant reduction of 241.6 billion yuan [4] - Large banks experienced a larger decrease in long-term loans, with a year-on-year reduction of 291.8 billion yuan, influenced by weaker real estate sales [4] - Bond investments increased by 525.3 billion yuan year-on-year, with large banks and small banks growing their bond investments by 159.3 billion yuan and 366 billion yuan respectively [4] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three investment themes: 1. Identifying banks with potential for performance growth, recommending Ningbo Bank and China Merchants Bank [4] 2. Emphasizing banks with convertible bond expectations, recommending Industrial Bank, Chongqing Bank, and Changshu Bank [4] 3. Continuing dividend strategies, recommending Bank of Communications, Jiangsu Bank, Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank, and Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank [4]

11 月美国 CPI 增速明显不及市场预期，政府关门导致的统计数据失真或一定程度上 使得通胀增速被低估，数据可靠性和指示意义下降。短期内美国通胀压力或仍偏温 和，不会成为美联储降息的掣肘。后续需主要关注美国就业市场走向以及新任美联 储主席表态。 投资要点： | | 021-23185641 | | --- | --- | | | wangyuqing@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040119 | | | 梁中华(分析师) | | | 021-23219820 | | | liangzhonghua@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040019 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 广义财政仍需加力 2025.12.18 美国就业：延续放缓 2025.12.17 M1 增速：能否企稳 2025.12.13 稳中求进，修炼内功 2025.12.11 核心 CPI 同比维持高位 2025.12.10 宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.12.19 美国通胀下行：数据质量或有干扰 [Table_Authors] 王宇晴(分析师) 2025 年 11 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the electronic cigarette industry, indicating a potential increase in value relative to the market index [4]. Core Insights - The electronic cigarette industry is entering a new product life and regulatory enforcement cycle, with major brands actively engaging in market cultivation, leading to accelerated industry expansion [2][4]. - The Chinese government has issued strict regulations to combat illegal activities related to electronic cigarettes, which is expected to expedite the exit of non-compliant production capacity from the market [4]. - The report highlights that leading compliant manufacturers, such as Smoore International, are likely to benefit from the tightening regulations [4]. Summary by Sections Regulatory Environment - The State Council has emphasized comprehensive regulation of electronic cigarettes, including strict measures against illegal production, wholesale, transportation, and sales [4]. - The focus is on international cooperation to tackle non-compliant electronic cigarette exports, which will help clear out the industry [4]. Market Dynamics - Smoore International is expected to see improvements in its aerosol business due to changes in regulatory environments in the US and Europe, with a potential recovery in 2026 [4]. - British American Tobacco anticipates a single-digit decline in its aerosol business in the second half of 2025, a significant improvement compared to a 13% decline in the first half of 2025 [4]. Financial Projections - Smoore International's earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.17 RMB for 2025, increasing to 0.41 RMB by 2027, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio decreasing from 67 in 2025 to 28 in 2027 [5]. - British American Tobacco's EPS is forecasted to rise from 2.83 GBP in 2025 to 3.09 GBP in 2027, maintaining a stable PE ratio of 15 [5].