Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the construction industry [2] Core Insights - The construction industry is currently facing pressure in infrastructure and real estate demand, as indicated by various high-frequency indicators such as cement, rebar, and asphalt [4][5] - The report highlights that the current indicators show low levels of cement production, capacity utilization, and prices, suggesting that infrastructure demand remains under pressure [5][20] - Leading construction companies are seen as having attractive price-to-book (PB) valuations, with potential for valuation improvement driven by state-owned enterprise reforms and market management policies [5] Summary by Sections 1. Construction Industry High-Frequency Indicators - High-frequency indicators in the construction industry, including cement, rebar, asphalt, and machinery, indicate the strength of physical workload [16] - Current indicators show that infrastructure demand is under pressure, with many indicators in low prosperity ranges [16][20] - Recent data indicates that cement inventory is at 65.2%, production is at 1.55 billion tons, and average price is at 271.3 yuan, reflecting weak demand [16][18] 2. Cement Indicators - Cement production and capacity utilization are key indicators of construction prosperity, with current annual production at approximately 68.7% of the peak in 2014 [28] - Cement prices have shown a positive correlation with infrastructure investment over the past three years, reflecting demand-side prosperity [34] - A decline in cement production typically indicates pressure on infrastructure investment, with capacity utilization below 60% signaling low prosperity [41][47] 3. Rebar and Steel Indicators - Rebar prices and production are closely linked to infrastructure investment, with current weekly production at 2.11 million tons indicating low prosperity [7][18] - High line prices are positively correlated with real estate investment growth, maintaining a synchronous relationship [7][19] 4. Machinery Indicators - The sales and operating hours of construction machinery, particularly excavators, reflect the intensity of construction activities [4][7] - Current operating hours for medium-sized excavators are at 64.2 hours, indicating low prosperity [18] 5. Asphalt Indicators - Asphalt production and operating rates are indicators of road transport investment trends, with current operating rates at 33.1%, reflecting low prosperity [8][18] 6. Glass Indicators - Glass inventory and prices are closely related to real estate completion rates, with current inventory at 5.178 million heavy boxes indicating high inventory levels [19][20] - The price of glass is currently at 1268.9 yuan, below the improvement threshold, indicating no recovery in the real estate sector [19][20] 7. Profit Forecasts - The report includes profit forecasts for leading companies in the construction sector, reflecting the overall industry outlook [11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1][6]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the competition in the food delivery sector has increased rider costs, but the company's efficiency optimization has led to an improvement in profit margins [2]. - The company is expected to return $3 billion to shareholders through dividends and buybacks from 2025 to 2026, with projected EPS growth of 10%/15%/11% for 2025-2027 [10]. - The target price is set at 444 HKD, based on a PE ratio of 22 times for 2025, which is above the industry average [10]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 10,978 million HKD in 2023 to 13,347 million HKD in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of approximately 6.3% [4]. - Net profit is expected to increase from 827 million HKD in 2023 to 1,096 million HKD in 2027, with a significant growth of 87.1% in 2023 [4]. - The company’s PE ratio is forecasted to decrease from 20.58 in 2024 to 13.72 in 2027, indicating improving valuation metrics [4]. Operational Performance - In Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of $2.787 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4%, with a core operating profit margin of 10.9% [10]. - Same-store sales increased by 1% year-on-year in Q2 2025, with KFC and Pizza Hut showing positive growth [10]. - The total number of stores reached 16,978, with a net increase of 336 stores in Q2 2025, indicating a 10% year-on-year growth [10]. Profitability Metrics - The restaurant profit margin improved to 16.1% in Q2 2025, up 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, driven by favorable raw material prices and operational efficiencies [10]. - KFC's restaurant profit margin was 16.9%, while Pizza Hut's was 13.3% in Q2 2025, reflecting operational improvements [10].

Domestic Macro Policy - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) plans to accelerate the establishment of new policy financial tools to encourage private enterprises to participate more in major national projects [15][33] - The State Council issued an opinion on gradually implementing free preschool education, which will exempt public kindergarten fees for the last year of preschool starting from the autumn semester of 2025, benefiting approximately 12 million children [15][28] - The Central Committee of the Communist Party and the State Council issued regulations to reduce formalism and lighten the burden on grassroots levels [15][28] Domestic Industry Policy - The People's Bank of China emphasized the continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy and the implementation of key monetary policy measures [16][31] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) issued a digital transformation implementation plan for the machinery industry, aiming for significant advancements by 2027 [16][31] - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced the resumption of VAT on interest income from newly issued government bonds starting August 8 [16][31] Local Policy - Hangzhou's municipal committee emphasized the need to cultivate new growth points in service consumption [5][39] - Shanghai and Jiangsu provinces issued a decision to promote collaborative technological innovation in the Yangtze River Delta [5][39] - Guangdong province introduced loan interest subsidy implementation rules for manufacturing and high-tech enterprises, with a maximum annual subsidy of 20 million yuan per enterprise [5][41] Overseas Dynamics - The U.S. President signed an executive order imposing tariffs ranging from 10% to 41% on countries that have not reached agreements with the U.S., effective from August 7, 2025 [6][44] - OPEC+ agreed to significantly increase oil production in September [6][44] - The Bank of England lowered its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 4% [6][44]

Domestic Macro - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is accelerating the establishment of new policy financial tools to encourage private enterprises to participate in major national projects [6][7] - The State Council issued an opinion on gradually implementing free preschool education, which will exempt public kindergarten fees for the last year of preschool starting from the autumn semester of 2025, benefiting approximately 12 million children [6][7] - The Central Committee of the Communist Party and the State Council issued regulations to reduce formalism and lighten the burden on grassroots levels [6][7] Industry Policy - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasized the continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy for the second half of the year [7][8] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) issued a digital transformation implementation plan for the machinery industry [7][8] - Starting from August 8, the interest income from newly issued government bonds and financial bonds will be subject to VAT again [7][8] Local Policy - The Hangzhou Municipal Committee emphasized cultivating new growth points in service consumption [8][9] - The Shanghai Municipal Government issued measures to support enterprises in enhancing basic research, with subsidies up to 10 million yuan [8][9] - The Guangdong Provincial Financial Management Bureau issued guidelines for loan interest subsidies for manufacturing and high-tech enterprises [8][9] Overseas Dynamics - On August 2, U.S. President Trump signed an executive order imposing tariffs ranging from 10% to 41% on countries that have not reached agreements with the U.S., effective from August 7, 2025 [9][25] - OPEC+ agreed to significantly increase oil production in September [9][25] - The Bank of England lowered its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 4% on August 7 [9][25]

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Buy" [4] Core Insights - Founded in 1932, LEGO has become one of the largest toy manufacturers globally, effectively navigating economic cycles due to its resonance across various aspects such as market, users, and operations, which serves as a reference for the development of Blokus [2][3] - In 2024, LEGO is projected to achieve revenue of 74.3 billion Danish Kroner, approximately 83.8 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 13%, with a net profit of 13.8 billion Danish Kroner, about 15.6 billion RMB, reflecting a 5% increase [6][4] Summary by Sections LEGO: A Global Toy Company - LEGO, established in Denmark in 1932, initially produced wooden toys before transitioning to plastic bricks, becoming a leading toy manufacturer [6][5] - In 2024, LEGO's revenue is expected to reach 74.3 billion Danish Kroner (approximately 83.8 billion RMB), with a year-on-year growth of 12.76% [6][5] Successes and Failures of LEGO - Successes include the choice of the brick segment, which has a long product lifecycle, and the expansion of user demographics, including adult and female consumers [4][5] - Failures include the expiration of patents leading to market share loss and challenges from aggressive expansion strategies [4][5] Exploring Blokus's Development Path - The report draws parallels between LEGO's historical development and the current trajectory of Blokus, which is positioned as a leading player in China's building block toy market, with projected revenue of 2.241 billion RMB in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 156% [4][5] - Blokus's growth is supported by a rich IP portfolio and deep operational strategies, including content-driven marketing and channel expansion [4][5]

Group 1 - The report highlights that domestic equity assets performed well in July 2025, with the risk parity strategy achieving a year-to-date return of 2.65% [2][5][20] - The report provides a summary of various asset allocation strategies, indicating that the domestic asset BL strategy 1 and 2 yielded returns of 2.40% and 2.34% respectively, while the risk parity strategy and macro factor-based strategy returned 2.65% and 2.59% respectively [21][41][42] - The report notes that the domestic equity market saw significant gains, with the CSI 1000 index rising by 4.8% and the Hang Seng Index increasing by 2.78% in July [8][9][10] Group 2 - The report discusses the correlation between different asset classes, indicating that the correlation between the CSI 300 and the total wealth index of government bonds was -38.08%, suggesting a potential for diversification [15][16] - The report outlines the performance of various asset allocation models, with the domestic risk parity strategy showing a maximum drawdown of 0.76% and an annualized volatility of 1.46% [41][42] - The macroeconomic outlook suggests downward risks for growth factors, while inflation expectations may stabilize due to recent policy measures [45][47]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - In July 2025, China's export growth rate was 7.2% year-on-year, while import growth was 4.1% [5] - Exports to ASEAN and Latin America saw significant increases of 16.6% and 7.7% respectively, while exports to the US decreased by 21.7% [7] - The overall export performance in July was slightly stronger than expected, with potential risks from new tariffs and regulatory changes [8] Group 2: Semiconductor Industry - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a recovery, with increased demand from industrial and automotive sectors leading to higher capacity utilization rates [28] - In Q2 2025, SMIC reported revenue of $2.209 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16.2%, and a gross margin of 20.4%, exceeding previous guidance [29] - Huahong Semiconductor also reported strong performance in Q2 2025, with revenue of $566 million, up 18.3% year-on-year, and a gross margin of 10.9% [30] Group 3: Construction Industry - The construction industry is under pressure, with indicators such as cement production and prices at low levels, indicating weak demand [18] - The price of rebar and the number of operating hours for excavators are also at near historical lows, reflecting ongoing challenges in the construction sector [20] - Leading construction companies are expected to see valuation improvements due to state-owned enterprise reforms and market management policies [19] Group 4: Consumer Goods Industry - LEGO's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 74.3 billion Danish Krone, approximately 83.8 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 13% [24] - The Chinese toy brand Blokus is experiencing rapid growth, with 2024 revenue expected to reach 2.241 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 156% [26] - The IP derivative market in China reached a scale of 174.2 billion RMB in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 15% from 2020 to 2024 [26] Group 5: Banking Sector - Shanghai Pudong Development Bank reported a significant increase in net profit for H1 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 10.2% [47] - The bank's non-performing loan ratio decreased to 1.31%, marking a continuous decline over seven quarters [48] - The bank's strategic focus on digital transformation and risk management is expected to enhance its long-term investment value [49] Group 6: Food and Beverage Industry - Unified Enterprises China reported a revenue of 17.087 billion RMB for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 10.6% [51] - The beverage segment achieved a revenue of 10.788 billion RMB, with a gross margin improvement of 1.4 percentage points [54] - The company's strategy of expanding its product offerings and partnerships is expected to drive further growth [54] Group 7: Pet Food Industry - Zhongchong Co. achieved a revenue of 2.43 billion RMB in H1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 24.3% [56] - The company's domestic revenue increased by 38.9%, driven by strong performance in its core brand [57] - The overseas revenue also showed resilience, with a 17.6% increase, supported by new production lines in Canada and Mexico [57]

股 票 研 究 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.08.08 晶圆代工行业龙头 25Q2 毛利率优于指引上限 [Table_Industry] 半导体 中芯国际及华虹半导体发布 25Q2 业绩 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 舒迪(分析师) | 021-38676666 | shudi@gtht.com | S0880521070002 | | 吴小沛(研究助理) | 021-23187269 | wuxiaopei@gtht.com | S0880125042240 | 本报告导读： 我们认为在工业及汽车需求修复下，晶圆代工产能利用率有望持续改善，叠加在 地化生产趋势确立，头部 Fab 有望实现业绩增长。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 半导体《AI 发展潜力大，半导体自主可控是关 键》2025.07.24 半导体《景气提升，关注晶圆代工产能扩张及先 进封装稀缺性》2025.07.21 半导体《沐曦股份及摩尔线程科创板 IPO 受理》 2025.07.04 半导体《设置科创 ...

Export Performance - In July 2025, China's export growth rate was 7.2%, up from 5.9% in the previous period, while import growth was 4.1%, compared to 1.1% previously[10] - The trade surplus decreased, with exports showing a slight month-on-month decline of 1.1% compared to June, but still higher than the same period in 2024[10] - Exports to ASEAN and Latin America saw significant increases, recording growth rates of 16.6% and 7.7% respectively, driven by preemptive shipments ahead of tariff changes[17] Risks and Future Outlook - Key risks include the potential impact of the 232 tariffs and increased scrutiny on transshipments, which could lead to a moderate decline in exports moving forward[34] - The report highlights that the resilience of capital goods exports is noteworthy, as geopolitical tensions may lead to increased demand for Chinese equipment[34] - A significant risk factor is the unexpected weakening of the US economy, which could adversely affect export performance[43]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [1][9]. Core Insights - The restructuring of the North and South Shipbuilding is entering a practical phase, with unified management, resource synergy, and industrial chain integration expected to accelerate [2]. - As the decline in orders narrows, ship price resilience emerges, and freight rates recover, the industry's profitability conditions are marginally improving, with restructuring synergies likely to amplify the company's profit elasticity during high prosperity cycles [2]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the restructuring of North and South Shipbuilding is entering a practical phase, which is expected to enhance management integration and resource synergy, thereby strengthening competitive advantages [4]. - The current decline in new ship orders is narrowing, with ship price resilience and recovering freight rates contributing to continuous improvement in profitability [4]. - Key companies to watch include China Shipbuilding, China Shipbuilding Defense, and Zhenhua Heavy Industries [4]. Industry Performance - China Shipbuilding expects a significant increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, projected to be between 2.8 billion to 3.1 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 98.25% to 119.49% [4]. - China Shipbuilding Heavy Industry anticipates a net profit of 1.5 billion to 1.8 billion yuan for the same period, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 181.09% to 237.30% [4]. - The industry is experiencing a marginal recovery in prosperity, with global new ship orders in July at 6.12 million DWT, down 39.94% year-on-year, while new orders in China were 5.05 million DWT, down 18.16% year-on-year, indicating a stabilization trend [4]. - The global new ship price index for July 2025 is reported at 186.65, with a slight month-on-month decrease of 0.25%, showing a narrowing decline [4]. - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) reached 1921 points on August 5, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 14.55% [4].