Group 1 - The report indicates that the Hong Kong stock market is expected to continue its bullish trend in the second half of the year, outperforming the A-share market, driven by the scarcity of technology assets and the ongoing AI wave [1][9][17] - The report highlights that the technology sector in Hong Kong is well-positioned to benefit from the AI industrial transformation, with leading companies across the AI value chain expected to gain from the associated economic growth [5][26][27] - The report draws parallels between the current market conditions and historical periods of strong performance in Hong Kong stocks, particularly from 2012 to 2014, suggesting that the current economic environment and technological advancements are conducive to similar outcomes [17][18][19] Group 2 - The report identifies key companies in the Hong Kong technology sector, such as Tencent, Kuaishou, Bilibili, Tencent Music, NetEase, and Xiaomi, highlighting their growth potential driven by AI integration and market positioning [35][36][37][38][41] - Tencent is noted for its strong user engagement and advertising revenue growth, supported by advancements in AI technology and ecosystem enhancements [35] - Kuaishou's AI capabilities are expected to accelerate its business growth, with significant user engagement and revenue generation [36] - Bilibili's user base is growing younger and more engaged, indicating strong potential for monetization through advertising and gaming [37] - Tencent Music is transitioning into a comprehensive audio entertainment platform, leveraging its content IP and strategic acquisitions to enhance its market position [38] - NetEase is recognized for its robust game portfolio and efficient operations, with significant growth in user engagement and game performance [40] - Xiaomi is positioned to capitalize on AI applications across its ecosystem, with ongoing developments in automotive and consumer electronics [41]

Group 1 - The report highlights a divergence in cyclical commodity prices, with steel, cement, and industrial metal prices declining, while float glass and thermal coal prices continue to rise. The film market shows significant improvement due to new releases during the summer season [2][13][31]. - The construction demand remains weak, leading to a decrease in steel prices and continued pressure on cement prices. However, float glass prices have seen an increase [5][15][42]. - The automotive and chemical industries are experiencing a seasonal slowdown in operating rates, while the oil asphalt sector shows a contrary increase, indicating resilience in infrastructure demand [2][5][15]. Group 2 - Real estate sales are still struggling, with a year-on-year decline of 20.8% in transaction area across 30 major cities. The decline is more pronounced in third-tier cities, with a drop of 37.0% [5][18]. - The average daily retail of passenger cars increased by 5.0% year-on-year, supported by the release of the third batch of national subsidies. However, dealer inventory pressure has slightly increased, raising concerns about the sustainability of this growth [5][21]. - The film box office revenue saw a significant increase of 49.0% week-on-week and a year-on-year growth of 64.8%, driven by the release of popular new films during the summer [5][31]. Group 3 - In the manufacturing sector, there is a seasonal slowdown in operating rates, particularly in the automotive and chemical industries, while oil asphalt production has increased, reflecting ongoing infrastructure demand [15][48]. - The prices of industrial metals have declined due to weak demand and the impact of tariffs on copper, with copper and aluminum prices dropping by 1.1% and 0.4% respectively [57][58]. - Long-distance passenger transport demand continues to grow, while export logistics show signs of decline, with highway freight traffic down by 0.9% and railway freight volume down by 1.4% [66][70].

关税格局逐步清晰 ■ 政策与地缘研究 8月第1期 本报告导读: 国内方面,政治局会议召开,部署下半年经济工作,预告四中全会。全球方面,中 美经贸会谈延长 90天关税豁免期;美国贸易谈判加紧推进,差异化布局"对等关税"。 投资要点: | ન | 方奕(分析师) | | --- | --- | | 5 | 021-38031658 | | P | fangyi2@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880520120005 | | ન્ડ | 黄维驰(分析师) | | ಲ | 021-38032684 | | D | huangweichi@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880520110005 | 相关报告 | 权益回调债市涨,铜价重挫美元升 2025.08.04 | | --- | | ETF 流出有所扩大,资金整体流入放缓 2025.08.04 | | 周期品延续涨价,空调内销排产转负 2025.08.01 | | 亚太领涨风险优,商品分化金油跌 2025.07.28 | | 内资继续加速,外资接力启动 2025.07.28 | 谈会召开。3)7月30日,中共中央政治局会议召开,强调宏 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a rating of "Buy" for the company [1]. Core Insights - The company has significant supply chain and operational advantages, with ample growth potential [2]. - The projected revenue for 2025-2027 is estimated at 112.79 billion, 132.31 billion, and 155.86 billion RMB, with growth rates of 28%, 17%, and 18% respectively [10][15]. - The adjusted net profit for the same period is expected to be 21.63 billion, 25.31 billion, and 29.96 billion RMB, with growth rates of 40%, 17%, and 18% respectively [10][15]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 7,676 million RMB in 2023 to 15,586 million RMB by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 38.1% in 2023, followed by 14.5%, 28.3%, 17.3%, and 17.8% in subsequent years [5][10]. - Gross profit is expected to increase from 2,403 million RMB in 2023 to 4,909 million RMB in 2027 [5]. - The adjusted net profit is forecasted to rise from 1,459 million RMB in 2023 to 2,996 million RMB in 2027, with a notable increase of 85% in 2024 [5][10]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is positioned as a leading player in the domestic ready-to-drink tea market, focusing on high-quality, short-shelf-life ingredients [22]. - The business model emphasizes a high-density store network supported by self-built cold chain logistics, allowing for cost-effective delivery of fresh ingredients [10][22]. - The company plans to expand its store count significantly, with projections of opening 2,500, 3,000, and 3,500 new stores from 2025 to 2027, respectively [17]. Valuation - The report assigns a target price of 29.66 HKD based on a projected PE ratio of 30x for 2025, which is above the industry average [20]. - The current market capitalization is approximately 57,790 million HKD [7]. Management and Governance - The management team is experienced, with a strong focus on operational efficiency and franchisee support [29][32]. - The company has a concentrated ownership structure, with the founding team holding over 70% of the shares, ensuring alignment of interests [29][30]. Growth Potential - The ready-to-drink beverage market in China has substantial growth potential, particularly in lower-tier cities, which are expected to be the main source of growth [10][22]. - The company is leveraging digital operations and a robust supply chain to enhance its competitive edge [10][22].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [4] Core Insights - The 2025 World Robot Conference will be held from August 8 to 12 in Beijing, showcasing over 1,500 exhibits, including more than 100 new product launches from over 200 domestic and international robot companies [6][8] - The core advantage of humanoid robots lies in their fine operation capabilities in general scenarios, which is expected to be a key focus for future commercialization [6][8] - Significant breakthroughs in mobility and dexterity have been achieved in humanoid robots, which are anticipated to play important roles in domestic services, manufacturing, and logistics [8] Summary by Sections Event Overview - The 2025 World Robot Conference will feature 50 humanoid robot manufacturers presenting the latest exhibits and industry solutions, marking the highest participation in similar events [8] Market Potential - The report highlights that in 2024, China accounted for two-thirds of global robot patent applications, indicating a strong innovation landscape [8] - The humanoid robots are expected to leverage advanced capabilities such as grasp control, dynamic vision, object recognition, force feedback, and task planning, facilitated by high-performance embodied intelligent models [8] Recommended Stocks - The report recommends the following stocks: - Fengcai Technology (688279.SH) with a closing price of 188.33 and a PE ratio of 52.90 for 2025E - Orbbec (688322.SH) with a closing price of 73.79 and a PE ratio of 368.95 for 2025E - Rockchip (603893.SH) with a closing price of 162.96 and a PE ratio of 59.69 for 2025E [9]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: Value Smart Beta Portfolio **Model Construction Idea**: The Value Smart Beta portfolios are constructed based on the goal of achieving high beta elasticity and long-term stable excess returns. The portfolios are designed to capture the value style with low historical correlation to other styles[7] **Model Construction Process**: Two portfolios are constructed under the value style: the "Value 50 Portfolio" and the "Value Balanced 50 Portfolio". These portfolios are selected and weighted to optimize for the value factor while maintaining diversification and minimizing correlation with other factors[7] **Model Evaluation**: The Value Smart Beta portfolios demonstrate a focus on capturing value-oriented excess returns, but their performance is sensitive to market conditions[7] - **Model Name**: Growth Smart Beta Portfolio **Model Construction Idea**: The Growth Smart Beta portfolios aim to capture the growth style with high beta elasticity and long-term stable excess returns. These portfolios are designed to have low historical correlation with other styles[7] **Model Construction Process**: Two portfolios are constructed under the growth style: the "Growth 50 Portfolio" and the "Growth Balanced 50 Portfolio". The portfolios are optimized to emphasize growth characteristics while maintaining diversification[7] **Model Evaluation**: The Growth Smart Beta portfolios are effective in capturing growth-oriented returns but may underperform in value-dominated market conditions[7] - **Model Name**: Small-Cap Smart Beta Portfolio **Model Construction Idea**: The Small-Cap Smart Beta portfolios are designed to capture the small-cap style with high beta elasticity and long-term stable excess returns. These portfolios are constructed to have low historical correlation with other styles[7] **Model Construction Process**: Two portfolios are constructed under the small-cap style: the "Small-Cap 50 Portfolio" and the "Small-Cap Balanced 50 Portfolio". The portfolios are optimized to emphasize small-cap characteristics while maintaining diversification[7] **Model Evaluation**: The Small-Cap Smart Beta portfolios show strong performance in capturing small-cap excess returns, particularly in favorable market environments[7] --- Model Backtesting Results - **Value 50 Portfolio**: - Weekly Absolute Return: -2.12% - Weekly Excess Return: -0.41% - Monthly Absolute Return: 0.20% - Monthly Excess Return: 0.33% - Year-to-Date Absolute Return: 12.44% - Year-to-Date Excess Return: 8.78% - Maximum Relative Drawdown: 2.35%[8] - **Value Balanced 50 Portfolio**: - Weekly Absolute Return: -0.46% - Weekly Excess Return: 1.26% - Monthly Absolute Return: 0.48% - Monthly Excess Return: 0.61% - Year-to-Date Absolute Return: 10.16% - Year-to-Date Excess Return: 6.50% - Maximum Relative Drawdown: 3.99%[8] - **Growth 50 Portfolio**: - Weekly Absolute Return: -1.48% - Weekly Excess Return: 0.68% - Monthly Absolute Return: -0.71% - Monthly Excess Return: -0.31% - Year-to-Date Absolute Return: 4.50% - Year-to-Date Excess Return: 2.38% - Maximum Relative Drawdown: 3.61%[8] - **Growth Balanced 50 Portfolio**: - Weekly Absolute Return: -1.64% - Weekly Excess Return: 0.53% - Monthly Absolute Return: 0.06% - Monthly Excess Return: 0.46% - Year-to-Date Absolute Return: 8.71% - Year-to-Date Excess Return: 6.59% - Maximum Relative Drawdown: 6.11%[8] - **Small-Cap 50 Portfolio**: - Weekly Absolute Return: 1.25% - Weekly Excess Return: 1.43% - Monthly Absolute Return: 1.07% - Monthly Excess Return: 0.85% - Year-to-Date Absolute Return: 36.52% - Year-to-Date Excess Return: 19.90% - Maximum Relative Drawdown: 6.23%[8] - **Small-Cap Balanced 50 Portfolio**: - Weekly Absolute Return: -1.09% - Weekly Excess Return: -0.90% - Monthly Absolute Return: 0.61% - Monthly Excess Return: 0.39% - Year-to-Date Absolute Return: 26.60% - Year-to-Date Excess Return: 9.98% - Maximum Relative Drawdown: 4.56%[8]

AI Industry Trends - ByteDance has open-sourced its AI Agent "Coze," which supports commercial use and has over 6,000 stars on GitHub, providing a platform for developing intelligent agents without coding[14] - The "Step 3" model by Jieyue features 321 billion total parameters and 38 billion activated parameters, achieving a 300% inference efficiency compared to DeepSeek-R1, with expected revenue of nearly $1 billion in 2025[11] - Ant Group released the financial reasoning model "Agentar-Fin-R1," which outperforms similar models in multiple financial evaluations and is based on a comprehensive financial dataset[16] AI Applications and Platforms - SenseTime launched the "Wuneng" embodied intelligence platform, featuring a multimodal reasoning model that improves cross-modal reasoning accuracy by 5 times compared to Gemini 2.5 Pro[8] - Huawei introduced the AI-Box platform, designed for lightweight edge deployment, supporting local execution of multimodal large models with low power consumption[9] - Tencent's Tairos platform offers modular services for multimodal perception and planning, focusing on enhancing robotic software capabilities[10] AI Model Developments - Zhiyuan released the GLM-4.5 model, which integrates reasoning, programming, and agent capabilities, achieving top performance in global open-source model benchmarks[17] - JD Cloud announced the open-source enterprise-level intelligent agent "JoyAgent," which supports multi-agent collaboration and has been tested in over 20,000 internal applications[18] - ByteDance and Nanjing University developed the CriticLean framework, improving the accuracy of mathematical formalization from 38% to 84%[19] Market Risks - AI software sales are below expectations, leading to adjustments in capital expenditure plans and slower iteration speeds for core AI products[34]

Market Performance - Global markets experienced a general decline, with MSCI Global down by 2.2%, MSCI Developed down by 2.3%, and MSCI Emerging down by 1.6% [8][15][17] - Among developed markets, the Australian S&P 200 showed the best performance with a decline of only 0.1%, while the French CAC40 was the weakest, down by 3.7% [8][15] - In the emerging markets, the Taiwan Weighted Index was the best performer, up by 0.3%, while the Hang Seng Index was the worst, down by 3.5% [8][15] Trading Sentiment - Trading volume increased across major indices, with the Hang Seng Index reaching 198 billion shares and a turnover of 736.1 billion USD, while the S&P 500 had a turnover of 58.6 billion USD [24] - Investor sentiment in the Hong Kong market improved, with short-selling accounting for 13.5% of total turnover, while North American sentiment showed a decline [24][29] - Volatility increased in the US markets, while it decreased in the Hong Kong market [24][30] Fund Flows - Global macro liquidity expectations turned more accommodative, with the market anticipating 2.4 rate cuts by the Federal Reserve within the year [53][56] - Significant capital inflows were observed in the Hong Kong market, with a total of 18.3 billion HKD flowing in during the last week [61][65] - The net inflow of funds into the Hong Kong market was primarily driven by stable foreign capital, amounting to 13.8 billion HKD [61] Earnings Expectations - The earnings expectations for the Hang Seng Index were revised down from 2195 to 2191 for 2025, with the financial sector seeing the largest upward revision [66][68] - The S&P 500's earnings expectations were adjusted upward from 265 to 267, with the technology sector experiencing the most significant increase [66][68] - The Eurozone STOXX50 index saw a slight downward revision in earnings expectations from 336 to 335 for 2025 [66][68]

Group 1 - The report maintains a tactical asset allocation view, recommending an overweight in A-shares and US stocks, a neutral position in RMB, and an underweight in oil [1][15][16] - A-shares are expected to perform well due to improving economic sentiment, strong government support for capital markets, stable market liquidity, and an improving micro trading structure [15][16] - The US stock market is viewed positively despite recent employment data revisions, with expectations of continued resilience in the economy [15][16] Group 2 - The report highlights that the oil market remains under pressure from both supply and demand sides, leading to a tactical underweight recommendation for oil [15][16] - The RMB is expected to maintain stability and appreciate due to the resilient growth momentum of the Chinese economy compared to other major economies [15][17] - The tactical asset allocation strategy reflects expectations of high risk-return ratios for Chinese equities and US stocks, while suggesting a cautious approach towards oil investments [15][16][17]

Macroeconomic Insights - The US GDP growth rate for Q2 2025 increased significantly to 3% due to a rebound in personal consumption income and expenditure, with disposable income rising by 4.3% year-on-year and expenditure by 4.75%[8] - The core PCE price index showed a year-on-year increase of 2.79% in June, indicating persistent inflationary pressures[8] - The US non-farm payrolls added only 73,000 jobs in July, with significant downward revisions to previous months' data, raising concerns about the labor market's strength[23] Market Trends - Major global stock indices experienced declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.9%, Nikkei 225 down 1.6%, S&P 500 down 2.4%, and Hang Seng Index down 3.5%[7] - Commodity prices showed mixed results, with IPE Brent crude oil futures up 1.7% and COMEX copper down 20.2% due to policy impacts[7] - The dollar index rose by 1% over the week, reflecting a recovery after a rapid decline[7] Investment Strategies - The report emphasizes a focus on long-term investment opportunities in low-inflation environments, particularly in bond assets and high-dividend equities[20] - The ongoing transformation of the Chinese economy is expected to create new investment opportunities, especially in technology and new consumption sectors[42] - The report suggests that the decline in risk-free rates, with long-term government bond yields falling below 2%, will further enhance the attractiveness of equities over fixed-income products[44]