Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - The rapeseed meal market is generally in a weak and volatile state. The current spot price is supported by the shutdown of oil mills, but the expectation of improved Sino - Canadian trade relations and increased imports from Canada and Australia strengthen the long - term supply pressure, leading to market trading of the expectation of increased long - term supply [2]. - The rapeseed oil market is in a destocking mode, and the basis remains high, which supports the price. However, the expectation of improved Sino - Canadian trade relations and increased imports also increase the long - term supply pressure, causing the recent trend to be weaker than that of soybean and palm oil with intensified short - term fluctuations [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Futures prices: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil is 8,948 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 2,229 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan. The closing price of the active ICE rapeseed contract is 639 Canadian dollars/ton, up 1.9 Canadian dollars, and that of the active domestic rapeseed contract is 5,530 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan [2]. - Spread and basis: The 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed oil is - 27 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is - 53 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan. The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract is 832 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 101 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan [2]. - Positions and warehouse receipts: The main contract position of rapeseed oil is 253,127 lots, down 469 lots; that of rapeseed meal is 1,001,168 lots, down 12,349 lots. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed oil are - 20,118 lots, up 639 lots; that of rapeseed meal are - 263,240 lots, up 9,509 lots. The warehouse receipts of rapeseed oil are 1,935 sheets, down 7 sheets; that of rapeseed meal are 84 sheets, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9,780 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; that of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2,330 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The average price of rapeseed oil is 9,886.25 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The import cost of rapeseed is 7,648.46 yuan/ton, up 11.47 yuan [2]. - Substitute prices: The spot price of grade - four soybean oil in Nanjing is 8,590 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; that of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8,800 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; that of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3,100 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - Production and imports: The global rapeseed production forecast is 95.27 million tons, up 3 million tons. The annual forecast of rapeseed production is 13,446 thousand tons, unchanged. The total rapeseed import volume in the current month is 0.2 million tons, up 0.2 million tons. The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in the current month is 14 million tons, down 2 million tons; that of rapeseed meal is 22.06 million tons, up 6.29 million tons [2]. - Inventory and profit: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 0.1 million tons, unchanged. The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 0.2 million tons, unchanged; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 0 million tons, unchanged. The import rapeseed crushing profit is 299 yuan/ton, down 116 yuan [2]. Industry Situation - Inventory and consumption: The inventory of rapeseed oil in the East China region is 27.4 million tons, up 2.25 million tons; that of rapeseed meal is 14.1 million tons, down 1.6 million tons. The inventory of rapeseed oil in the Guangxi region is 0.1 million tons, unchanged; that of rapeseed meal in the South China region is 27 million tons, up 1.3 million tons. The weekly提货量 of rapeseed oil is 0.55 million tons, up 0.37 million tons; that of rapeseed meal is 0 million tons, unchanged [2]. Downstream Situation - Production and sales: The monthly production of feed is 2,977.9 million tons, up 20.9 million tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil is 427.6 million tons, down 67.4 million tons. The monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 5,738 billion yuan, down 319 billion yuan [2]. Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 20.07%, down 2.17 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options is 20.07%, down 2.16 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 16.36%, down 0.87 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options is 16.36%, down 0.85 percentage points [2]. Industry News - International market: On January 19th, ICE rapeseed futures showed mixed trends. The March contract fell 0.50 Canadian dollars to 639 Canadian dollars per ton. The high expectation of a bumper South American soybean harvest continues to restrain international soybean prices. The US soybean crushing volume in December 2025 reached the second - highest monthly record, which is positive for US soybeans [2]. - Domestic market: Currently, domestic oil mills are still shut down, supporting the current spot prices of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil. The expectation of improved Sino - Canadian trade relations and the purchase of 60,000 tons of Canadian rapeseed by China increase the long - term supply pressure [2].

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:白糖(日,元/吨) | 5183 | -61 主力合约持仓量:白糖(日,手) | 438833 | 11536 | | | 仓单数量:白糖(日,张) | 14439 | 313 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:白糖(日,手) | -70286 | 1501 | | | 有效仓单预报:白糖:小计(日,张) 进口加工估算价(配额内):巴西糖(日,元/ | 50 | -313 -45 进口加工估算价(配额内):泰国糖(日,元/ | | | | 现货市场 | 吨) | 4002 | | 4053 | -45 -58 | | | 进口巴糖估算价(配额外,50%关税)(日,元 | | 吨) -59 进口泰糖估算价(配额外,50%关税)(日,元 | | | | | | 5068 | | 5134 | | | | /吨) 云南昆明白糖现货价格(日,元/吨) | 5195 | /吨) -20 广西南宁白糖现货价格(日,元/吨) | 533 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current market focus has shifted to the consumer end. The arrival of goods in the Hebei sales area market has continued this week, with an average of about 7 trucks per day. The goods arriving at the market are mainly off - grade, and the mainstream price tends to be stable. As of January 14, 2026, the physical inventory of 36 sample points of red dates this week was 14,415 tons, a decrease of 885 tons compared with last week, a month - on - month decrease of 5.78%, and a year - on - year increase of 35%. The sample point inventory decreased month - on - month. Currently, red dates have entered the peak stocking period, and the enthusiasm of downstream customers to purchase goods has increased. Attention should be paid to the pre - Spring Festival stocking situation [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for red dates was 8,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 115 yuan; the main contract's open interest was 40,380 hands; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was 3,298 hands, a decrease of 80 hands; the number of warehouse receipts was not provided; the total number of valid warehouse receipt forecasts was 324, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The prices of red dates in various regions showed different trends. For example, the price of general - grade red dates in Kashgar was 4.1 yuan/kg, in Alar was 4.15 yuan/kg, and in Aksu was 9.44 yuan/kg. The price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei was 0 yuan/jin, and the price of special - grade red dates in Hebei was 10 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.03 yuan compared with the previous value [2] 3.3 Upstream Market - The annual output of red dates was 199.3 million tons, an increase of 318.7 million tons compared with the previous value; the planting area of red dates was 6.069 million hectares, a decrease of 4.1 million hectares [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The national red date inventory was 3,537,566 tons, a decrease of 885 tons compared with the previous value; the monthly export volume of red dates was 1,332,346 kg, and the cumulative export volume was 29,291,188 kg [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The cumulative sales volume of red dates of Hao Xiang Ni was 1,470 tons, a decrease of 2,981.06 tons compared with the previous value; the cumulative year - on - year production of red dates of Hao Xiang Ni decreased by 34.59%; the average daily number of trucks arriving at the Ruyifang Market was 10.33, a decrease of 0.77 compared with the previous value; the average monthly wholesale price of red dates was 0.46 yuan/kg [2] 3.6 Industry News - Nearly 3 trucks of goods arrived at the parking area of the Cui'erzhuang Market in Hebei, mainly off - grade. Local processing plants mainly processed and shipped their own goods, and holders of goods actively shipped. Downstream customers purchased according to their needs. 8 trucks of goods arrived at the Ruyifang Market in Guangdong, the price remained stable for the time being, and about 3 trucks of goods were traded in the market. The current market focus has shifted to the consumer end [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current slaughter rhythm of large-scale farms is normal, but the slaughter in some areas is affected by snowfall. After the New Year's Day, the demand for curing decreases, and the terminal consumption tolerance is limited after the recent increase in spot prices. The operating rate of slaughtering enterprises has declined from the high level. Attention should be paid to the start of pre - Spring Festival stocking. Overall, the price increase has led to a decrease in procurement by slaughtering enterprises, and the spot price of live pigs has stagnated and adjusted. Before the Spring Festival, both supply and demand will increase, and the game will intensify. On the futures market, due to the slowdown of capacity reduction and the year - end inventory data, the market sentiment is weak, the live pig 2603 contract has fallen by 2.53%, the center of the oscillation range has continued to move down, and the futures performance is weaker than the spot [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Disk - The closing price of the main futures contract of live pigs is 11,550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 155 yuan; the main contract position is 144,103 lots, a decrease of 10,286 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 433 lots, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures positions is - 48,591 lots, an increase of 704 lots [2] Spot Price - The live pig price in Zhumadian, Henan is 13,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan; in Siping, Jilin is 12,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan; in Yunfu, Guangdong is 14,100 yuan/ton, unchanged. The main live pig basis is 1,650 yuan/ton, an increase of 55 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The live pig inventory is 42,9670,000 heads, a decrease of 7,130,000 heads; the inventory of breeding sows is 3,9610,000 heads, a decrease of 290,000 heads [2] Industry Situation - The year - on - year CPI in the current month is 0.8%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of corn is 2,369.41 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.9 yuan; the Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index is 906.92, an increase of 0.48; the monthly output of feed is 29,779,000 tons, an increase of 209,000 tons; the price of binary breeding sows is 1,431 yuan/head, an increase of 2 yuan; the breeding profit of purchased piglets is 48.35 yuan/head, an increase of 50.66 yuan; the breeding profit of self - breeding and self - raising live pigs is 7.39 yuan/head, an increase of 18.93 yuan; the monthly import volume of pork is 60,000 tons, unchanged; the average price of white - striped chicken in the main producing areas is 13.5 yuan/kg, unchanged [2] Downstream Situation - The slaughter volume of designated live pig slaughtering enterprises is 39,570,000 heads, an increase of 1,230,000 heads; the monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 573.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 31.9 billion yuan [2] Industry News - In December 2025, the national average price of piglets was 23.39 yuan/kg, a year - on - year decrease of 29.5% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.5%. The prices in 29 monitored provinces across the country declined. Among them, the month - on - month decline in Northeast China was relatively large, with Liaoning leading the decline at 11.3%. In terms of price levels, the average price of piglets in South China was the highest at 27.89 yuan/kg, and the lowest in North China at 21.85 yuan/kg [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper main contract shows a volatile trend, with increasing open interest, spot discount, and weakening basis. The copper concentrate TC spot index continues to decline, and the cost support of tight ore for copper prices remains. The supply is relatively sufficient, while the demand is cautious due to the off - season and high copper prices before. The refined copper social inventory is accumulating seasonally. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility slightly decreases. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with light positions and control the rhythm and trading risks [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract is 101,230 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 12,970 dollars/ton, up 4.5 dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread is - 200 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the open interest of the Shanghai copper main contract is 218,898 lots, up 1,466 lots. The top 20 futures positions in Shanghai copper are - 51,902 lots, up 44 lots. The LME copper inventory is 147,425 tons, up 3,850 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange's cathode copper inventory is 213,515 tons, up 32,972 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants are 48,550 tons, down 1,025 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange's cathode copper warrants are 148,193 tons, down 2,856 tons [2] 2. Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 100,725 yuan/ton, down 215 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 100,615 yuan/ton, down 640 yuan. The Shanghai electrolytic copper CIF (bill of lading) price is 36 dollars/ton, unchanged; the Yangshan copper average premium is 25.5 dollars/ton, down 2.5 dollars. The CU main contract basis is - 505 yuan/ton, down 265 yuan; the LME copper cash - 3 spread is 67.55 dollars/ton, up 6.03 dollars [2] 3. Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 270.43 million tons, up 17.8 million tons. The copper smelter's rough smelting fee (TC) is - 46.53 dollars/kiloton, down 1.12 dollars. The copper concentrate price in Jiangxi is 90,910 yuan/metal ton, down 630 yuan; in Yunnan is 91,610 yuan/metal ton, down 630 yuan. The southern processing fee for blister copper is 2,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the northern processing fee is 1,200 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 4. Industry Situation - The refined copper output is 123.6 million tons, up 3.2 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 440,000 tons, up 10,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 68,290 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 82,850 yuan/ton, down 450 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 1,030 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 5. Downstream and Application - The copper product output is 222.6 million tons, up 22.2 million tons. The cumulative grid infrastructure investment completion is 560.39 billion yuan, up 77.956 billion yuan. The cumulative real estate development investment completion is 82,788 billion yuan, up 419.71 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,810 million pieces, up 418 million pieces [2] 6. Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 28.14%, up 0.02%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 23.24%, down 0.11%. The current month's at - the - money IV implied volatility is 24.72%, down 0.0582%; the at - the - money option call - put ratio is 1.55, down 0.0687 [2] 7. Industry News - In 2025, China implemented a series of more proactive macro - policies, promoting economic structure optimization and upgrading. The service retail sales increased by 5.5% compared with the previous year, and the cumulative growth rate has rebounded for 4 consecutive months since September. The consumer goods trade - in policy promoted high - quality durable consumer goods into residents' lives. At the end of 2025, the number of household cars per 100 households reached 52.9, an increase of 1.7 compared with the end of the previous year. The GDP in 2025 was 1,401,879 billion yuan, a 5.0% increase over the previous year. The per - capita disposable income of national residents was 43,377 yuan, a nominal increase of 5.0% over the previous year. In December 2025, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 5.2% year - on - year and 0.49% month - on - month. In 2025, it increased by 5.9% compared with the previous year. The IMF raised the global economic growth forecast for 2026 by 0.2 percentage points to 3.3% and also raised the economic growth forecasts of China, the US, the Eurozone, and Japan. The investment growth in information technology driven by AI is an important driving force for the global economy. Five ministries including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly deployed the construction of zero - carbon factories, aiming to cultivate a number of zero - carbon factories in industries such as automobiles, lithium batteries, photovoltaics, and electronic appliances by 2027 and gradually expand to traditional high - energy - consuming industries by 2030 [2]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - The overall fundamentals of lithium carbonate may be in a stage of stable supply and cautious demand, with a slowdown in the inventory destocking rate of the industry [2] - In the options market, the put - call ratio of open interest is 135.71%, down 8.9296% month - on - month. The sentiment in the options market is bearish, and the implied volatility has slightly decreased [2] - Technically, on the 60 - minute MACD, the two lines are above the 0 axis, and the green bars are converging [2] - The summary of the view is to conduct light - position trading with a slightly bullish and oscillating trend, and pay attention to controlling risks in trading rhythm [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 160,500 yuan/ton, up 13,240 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 147,403 lots, down 1,016 lots [2] - The open interest of the main contract is 415,351 lots, up 4,020 lots; the spread between the near and far contracts is - 1,560 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan [2] - The warehouse receipts of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange are 27,681 lots, down 17 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 152,500 yuan/ton, up 1,500 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 149,000 yuan/ton, up 1,500 yuan [2] - The basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is - 8,000 yuan/ton, down 11,740 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 1,845 US dollars/ton, down 45 US dollars; the average price of amblygonite is 16,650 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The price of lithium mica (2 - 2.5%) is 6,400 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 56,820 tons, up 2,840 tons; the monthly import volume is 23,988.66 tons, up 1,933.47 tons [2] - The monthly export volume of lithium carbonate is 911.90 tons, up 152.66 tons; the monthly output of power batteries is 201,700 MWh, up 25,400 MWh [2] - The monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 49%, up 2%; the price of lithium manganate is 45,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 154,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium cobaltate is 400,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The price of ternary material (811 type) in China is 197,000 yuan/ton, down 2,000 yuan; the price of ternary material (622 power type) in China is 180,500 yuan/ton, down 2,000 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type) in China is 195,500 yuan/ton, down 2,000 yuan; the monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 50%, down 1% [2] - The price of lithium iron phosphate is 52,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathodes is 60%, down 3% [2] - The monthly output of new energy vehicles (according to CAAM) is 1,718,000 vehicles, down 162,000 vehicles; the monthly sales volume is 1,710,000 vehicles, down 113,000 vehicles [2] - The cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles (according to CAAM) is 47.94%, up 0.45%; the cumulative sales volume and year - on - year increase are 16,490,000 vehicles, up 3,624,000 vehicles [2] - The monthly export volume of new energy vehicles is 300,000 vehicles, unchanged; the cumulative export volume and year - on - year increase are 2.615 million vehicles, up 1.331 million vehicles [2] - The 20 - day average volatility of the underlying is 83.14%, up 3.07%; the 40 - day average volatility is 66.44%, down 1.78% [2] 3.6 Options Situation - The total open interest of call options is 106,692 contracts, up 7,406 contracts; the total open interest of put options is 144,794 contracts, up 1,185 contracts [2] - The put - call ratio of total open interest is 135.71%, down 8.9296%; the implied volatility of at - the - money IV is 0.61%, down 0.0423% [2] 3.7 Industry News - In 2025, the GDP was 14,018.79 billion yuan, up 5.0% year - on - year; the per capita disposable income of national residents was 43,377 yuan, up 5.0% year - on - year [2] - In December 2025, China's lithium hydroxide exports were 6,318 tons, up 188% month - on - month and down 10% year - on - year [2] - In December 2025, the import volume of spodumene was 788,500 physical tons, equivalent to about 78,500 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) [2] - In December 2025, China imported 23,989 tons of lithium carbonate, up 9% month - on - month and down 14% year - on - year; exported 912 tons, up 20% month - on - month and up 46% year - on - year [2] - In 2025, China implemented a series of more proactive macro - policies, which promoted the optimization and upgrading of the economic structure [2] - The main contract of lithium carbonate had a strong daily limit, with open interest increasing month - on - month, the spot at a discount to the futures, and the basis weakening compared with the previous day [2] - On the fundamentals, smelters in the raw material end have sufficient raw material inventories, but their purchasing attitudes are cautious due to high ore prices [2] - On the supply side, due to large fluctuations in the market, the upstream's shipping attitudes are divided, upstream inventories have accumulated, and production remains relatively stable [2] - On the demand side, downstream enterprises are sensitive to lithium prices, are cautious at high prices and mainly make purchases based on rigid demand, and actively inquire when lithium prices fall from high levels [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For alumina, the fundamentals may be in a state of excessive supply and stable demand. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] - For electrolytic aluminum, the fundamentals may be in a stage of stable supply and cautious demand. The option market sentiment is bullish, and it is also recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] - For cast aluminum alloy, the fundamentals may be in a stage of convergent supply and weakening demand. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 23,950 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 2,671 yuan/ton, down 62 yuan [2] - The spread between the main and the second - consecutive contracts of Shanghai Aluminum was - 115 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the spread between the main and the second - consecutive contracts of alumina was - 128 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan [2] - The position of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 332,750 lots, down 4,347 lots; the position of the alumina main contract was 502,994 lots, up 12,005 lots [2] - The LME aluminum cancelled warrants were 32,750 tons, unchanged; the total alumina inventory was 217,143 tons, up 21,062 tons [2] - The LME three - month electrolytic aluminum quotation was 3,158.50 US dollars/ton, up 24.50 US dollars; the LME aluminum inventory was 485,000 tons, down 3,000 tons [2] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Aluminum was - 55,719 lots, up 3,251 lots; the Shanghai - London ratio was 7.58, down 0.10 [2] - The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract was 22,765 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan; the spread between the main and the second - consecutive contracts of cast aluminum alloy was - 110 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan [2] - The position of the cast aluminum alloy main contract was 19,520 lots, down 685 lots; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of cast aluminum alloy was 74,160 tons, up 872 tons [2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai Aluminum were 139,951 tons, down 1,524 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of Shanghai Non - ferrous Network A00 aluminum was 23,850 yuan/ton, down 190 yuan; the average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide was 23,680 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2] - The alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 2,565 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum was 23,830 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan [2] - The basis of cast aluminum alloy was 1,085 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum was - 270 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2] - The Shanghai Wumao aluminum premium/discount was - 160 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the LME aluminum premium/discount was 15.60 US dollars/ton, up 6.75 US dollars [2] - The basis of alumina was - 106 yuan/ton, up 57 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The pre - baked anode in the northwest region was 5,910 yuan/ton, unchanged; the national alumina start - up rate was 83.32%, down 1.05 percentage points [2] - The alumina output was 813.80 tons, up 27.30 tons; the alumina capacity utilization rate was 85.00%, down 1.51 percentage points [2] - The demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) was 705.96 tons, down 24.27 tons; the alumina supply - demand balance was 26.58 tons, down 11.40 tons [2] - The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal scrap was 18,450 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of crushed raw aluminum in Shandong metal scrap was 17,900 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - China's import volume of aluminum scrap and fragments was 194,102.07 tons, up 31,482.14 tons; China's export volume of aluminum scrap and fragments was 70.80 tons, down 0.73 tons [2] - The alumina export volume was 21.00 tons, up 4.00 tons; the alumina import volume was 22.78 tons, down 0.46 tons [2] - The WBMS aluminum supply - demand balance was - 10.87 tons, up 8.34 tons; the electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 71.20 tons, up 1.40 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The primary aluminum import volume was 189,196.58 tons, up 43,086.86 tons; the total electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 4,536.20 tons, up 12.00 tons [2] - The primary aluminum export volume was 37,575.30 tons, down 15,472.39 tons; the electrolytic aluminum start - up rate was 98.31%, up 0.10 percentage points [2] - The aluminum product output was 593.10 tons, up 23.70 tons; the output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 68.40 tons, down 1.60 tons [2] - The export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 54.00 tons, down 3.00 tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy was 2.55 tons, down 0.51 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The total built - up production capacity of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 126.00 tons, unchanged; the National Real Estate Climate Index was 91.45, down 0.44 [2] - The aluminum alloy output was 173.90 tons, unchanged; the automobile output was 341.20 tons, down 10.70 tons [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum for 20 days was 23.30%, up 0.18 percentage points; the historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum for 40 days was 18.63%, down 0.11 percentage points [2] - The implied volatility of the at - the - money option of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 21.05%, down 0.0405 percentage points; the call - put ratio of Shanghai Aluminum options was 1.81, up 0.0807 [2] 3.7 Industry News - In 2025, China implemented a series of more proactive macro - policies, promoting economic structural optimization and upgrading. Service retail sales increased by 5.5% compared with the previous year, and the cumulative growth rate of service retail sales has rebounded for 4 consecutive months since September [2] - In 2025, China's GDP was 1,401,879 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.0%. The per capita disposable income of national residents was 43,377 yuan, a nominal increase of 5.0% compared with the previous year [2] - In December 2025, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.2% year - on - year and 0.49% month - on - month. In 2025, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.9% compared with the previous year [2] - The IMF raised the global economic growth forecast for 2026 by 0.2 percentage points to 3.3% and also raised the economic growth forecasts for China, the United States, the euro area, and Japan in 2026 [2] - Five departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly deployed the construction of zero - carbon factories, aiming to cultivate a number of zero - carbon factories in industries such as automobiles, lithium batteries, photovoltaics, and electronic appliances by 2027 and gradually expand to traditional high - energy - consuming industries such as steel, non - ferrous metals, and petrochemicals by 2030 [2]

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):鸡蛋(日,元/500千 | 3023 | -49 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:鸡蛋(日,手) | 3167 | 1380 | | | 克) 鸡蛋期货月间价差(5-9):(日,元/500千克) | -432 | -42 期货持仓量(活跃合约):鸡蛋(日,手) | 265011 | 1813 | | | 注册仓单量:鸡蛋(日,手) | 10 | 10 | | | | 现货市场 | 鸡蛋现货价格(日,元/斤) | 3.75 | 0.1 基差(现货-期货)(日,元/500千克) | 723 | 151 | | 上游情况 | 产蛋鸡存栏指数:全国(月,2015=100) | 112.03 | -2.21 淘汰产蛋鸡指数:全国(月,2015=100) | 101.18 | -13.26 | | | 主产区平均价:蛋鸡苗(周,元/羽) | 3 | 0.1 新增雏鸡指数:全国(月,2015=100) | 93.62 | 26.5 ...

尿素产业日报 2026-01-19 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1772 | -19 郑州尿素5-9价差(日,元/吨) | 26 | -2 | | | 郑州尿素主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 235887 | -7105 郑州尿素前20名净持仓 | -16744 | 148 | | | 郑州尿素交易所仓单(日,张) | 13355 | 0 | | | | 现货市场 | 河北(日,元/吨) | 1760 | 0 河南(日,元/吨) | 1760 | 0 | | | 江苏(日,元/吨) | 1770 | 0 山东(日,元/吨) | 1750 | -20 | | | 安徽(日,元/吨) | 1770 | 0 郑州尿素主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | -22 | -1 | | | FOB波罗的海(日,美元/吨) | 375 | 7.5 FOB中国主港(日,美元/吨) | 405 | 2.5 | | 产业情况 | 港口库存(周,万吨) ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal market is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand, and generally fluctuates with soybean meal. Affected by the improvement of China-Canada trade relations, rapeseed meal continued to decline and maintained a weak oscillation overall [2]. - The rapeseed oil market is in a destocking mode, which supports its price and keeps the basis at a high level. However, the improvement of China-Canada trade relations has increased the long - term supply pressure, causing rapeseed oil to decline in oscillation and increasing short - term volatility [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of rapeseed oil futures (active contract) was 8902 yuan/ton, down 161 yuan; the closing price of rapeseed meal futures (active contract) was 2221 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan [2]. - The rapeseed oil monthly spread (5 - 9) was -21 yuan/ton, down 74 yuan; the rapeseed meal monthly spread (5 - 9) was -66 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2]. - The open interest of the main rapeseed oil contract was 253,596 lots, down 16,032 lots; the open interest of the main rapeseed meal contract was 1,013,517 lots, up 95,878 lots [2]. - The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil were -20,757 lots, down 14,342 lots; for rapeseed meal were -272,749 lots, down 31,903 lots [2]. - The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts was 1,942 sheets, down 200 sheets; the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts was 84 sheets, unchanged [2]. - The closing price of ICE rapeseed futures (active) was 637.1 Canadian dollars/ton, up 2.9 Canadian dollars; the closing price of rapeseed futures (active contract) was 5,549 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,850 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2,280 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan [2]. - The average price of rapeseed oil was 9,956.25 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan; the import cost of imported rapeseed was 7,636.99 yuan/ton, up 46.97 yuan [2]. - The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 6,300 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan; the oil - meal ratio was 4.04, up 0.09 [2]. - The basis of the main rapeseed oil contract was 787 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the basis of the main rapeseed meal contract was 59 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan [2]. - The spot price of grade - four soybean oil in Nanjing was 8,540 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1,310 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan [2]. Substitute Spot Prices - The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 1,150 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan [2]. - The spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 3,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 820 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The global rapeseed production forecast for the year was 95.27 million tons, up 3 million tons; the domestic rapeseed production forecast for the year was 13.446 million tons, unchanged [2]. - The total rapeseed import volume for the month was 0.2 million tons, up 0.2 million tons; the import rapeseed crushing profit on the disk was 299 yuan/ton, down 116 yuan [2]. - The total rapeseed inventory of oil mills was 0.1 million tons, unchanged; the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed was 0%, unchanged [2]. - The total import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil for the month was 14 million tons, down 2 million tons; the total import volume of rapeseed meal for the month was 22.06 million tons, up 6.29 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas was 0.2 million tons, unchanged; the rapeseed meal inventory in coastal areas was 0 million tons, unchanged [2]. - The rapeseed oil inventory in East China was 27.4 million tons, up 2.25 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China was 15.7 million tons, down 1 million tons [2]. - The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi was 0.1 million tons, unchanged; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China was 25.7 million tons, up 1.1 million tons [2]. - The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 was 0.18 million tons, down 0.22 million tons; the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 was 0 million tons, unchanged [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed was 2,977.9 million tons, up 20.9 million tons; the monthly social consumer goods retail sales of catering revenue was 605.7 billion yuan, up 85.8 billion yuan [2]. - The monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 427.6 million tons, down 67.4 million tons [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal was 22.24% (17.23% previously), down 0.6%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal was 22.23% (17.21% previously), down 0.6% [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility for rapeseed meal was 16.38%, up 0.03%; the 60 - day historical volatility for rapeseed meal was 13.06%, up 0.24% [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility for rapeseed oil was 18.03%, up 2.19%; the 60 - day historical volatility for rapeseed oil was 14.77%, up 1.07% [2]. Industry News - On Friday, Canadian rapeseed futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) closed higher, with the benchmark contract up 0.8%, hitting a six - week high, due to a new trade agreement between Canada and China including a reduction in rapeseed tariffs [2]. - The USDA monthly supply - demand report showed that the U.S. soybean production forecast for the 2025/26 season was 4.262 billion bushels, higher than last month's forecast and market expectations. The USDA also raised Brazil's soybean production and export forecasts, which was bearish for the market [2]. - The NOPA monthly crushing report showed that the U.S. soybean crushing volume in December 2025 jumped to the second - highest on record, which was positive for U.S. soybeans [2].