晨会纪要（2025/3/17） [Table_Contactor] 编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SACNO: S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com [Table_MainInfo] 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要 宏观及策略分析 美国衰退预期发酵，国内需求仍显不足——宏观经济周报 金融工程研究 利率整体上行，波动幅度较大――利率债周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 5 晨会纪要（2025/3/17） [Table_MorningSection] 宏观及策略分析 美国衰退预期发酵，国内需求仍显不足——宏观经济周报 周 喜（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150511010017） 宋亦威（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150514080001） 严佩佩（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150520110001） 靳沛芃（研究助理，SAC NO：S1150124030005） 1、外围环境而言 美国方面，2 月通胀数据全面低于市场预期，结束此前连续 4 个月的反弹。关税政策摇摆不定令消费者信心 受 ...

宏观经济分析报告 5 美国衰退预期发酵，国内需求仍显不足 ――宏观经济周报 证券分析师 周喜[Table_IndInvest] 022-28451972 zhouxi@bhzq.com 宋亦威 [Table_IndInvest] SAC NO：S1150514080001 022-23861608 songyw@bhzq.com 严佩佩 SAC NO：S1150520110001 022-23839070 yanpp@bhzq.com 研究助理 靳沛[Table_IndInvest] 芃 SAC NO：S1150124030005 022-23839160 jinpp@bhzq.com 分析师：周喜 SAC NO：S1150511010017 2025 年 3 月 14 日 就外围环境而言，美国方面，2 月通胀数据全面低于市场预期，结束 此前连续 4 个月的反弹。关税政策摇摆不定令消费者信心受挫，驱动 商品通胀阶段性走低；服务通胀则继续受到房租价格和薪资增速支撑 降温缓慢。预计短期通胀仍将受关税影响无法顺利实现目标，但鉴于 消费需求走弱，整体也并不具备超预期上行的基础。劳动力市场方面， 私人部门就业表现较强， ...

Market Overview - In the past five trading days (March 7 to March 13), major indices mostly declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.66% and the ChiNext Index down by 3.07% [5][19] - The trading volume decreased slightly, with a total of 8.10 trillion yuan, a reduction of 231.27 billion yuan compared to the previous five trading days, resulting in an average daily trading volume of 1.62 trillion yuan [9][19] Economic Indicators - February CPI showed a decline in both year-on-year and month-on-month growth rates, primarily due to high base effects and seasonal decreases in food prices [23] - PPI continued to show negative growth in February, influenced by traditional industrial production off-seasons and fluctuations in international commodity prices [23] Policy Developments - The State Council, led by Premier Li Qiang, emphasized the need for timely policy implementation to address uncertainties and stimulate consumption, indicating a proactive approach to economic management [25][27] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is set to launch a new round of capital market reforms, focusing on optimizing stock issuance and merger restructuring systems to support quality innovative enterprises [27][28] Investment Strategy - The report suggests that external risk disturbances, changes in earnings expectations, and the pace of economic policy implementation will be critical for market development [28] - There is a potential shift from concept-driven market movements to performance-driven trends, particularly as the technology sector may unlock development bottlenecks [28] - Industry allocation should consider defensive attributes of dividend sectors (such as banking and home appliances) and thematic investment opportunities in the TMT sector driven by AI trends, while being cautious of increased short-term volatility [28]

晨会纪要（2025/3/14） [Table_Contactor] 编辑人 [Table_MainInfo] 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要 崔健 022-28451618 SACNO: S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 宏观及策略分析 低位板块表现活跃，行情等待驱动换轨——A 股市场投资策略周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 晨会纪要（2025/3/14） [Table_MorningSection] 宏观及策略分析 低位板块表现活跃，行情等待驱动换轨——A 股市场投资策略周报 宋亦威（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150514080001） 严佩佩（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150520110001） 靳沛芃（研究助理，SAC NO：S1150124030005） 投资要点： 1、市场回顾 近 5 个交易日（3 月 7 日-3 月 13 日），重要指数多数收跌；其中，上证综指收跌 0.66%，创业板指收跌 3.07%； 风格层面，沪深 300 收跌 1.13%，中证 500 收跌 0.89%。成交量方面小幅缩量，两市统计区间内成交 8.10 万 亿元，较前五个交易日减少 ...

| 公 | | | | | | | | | | 公司深度报告 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 司 |  | [Table_MainInfo] | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 铝行业"绿色先锋"，业绩弹性有望释放 | | | | | | | 研 | | | | | | | | | ——云铝股份（000807）深度报告 | | | | 究 | 分析师： | 张珂 | | SAC NO： S1150523120001 年 3 月 | 12 | | 2025 | | | | 日 | | | [Table_Analysis] 有色金属——工业金属 | | | [Table_Summary] | | | | | | | | | | | | | 投资要点： | | | | | | | | | | 证券分析师 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |  铝行业"绿色先锋"，24 年公司业绩好转 | | | | | | | | | | [T ...

| | ――2025 年 2 月 PMI 数据点评 | | --- | --- | | 分析师： 宋亦威 | SAC NO： S1150514080001 2025 年 3 月 3 日 | | [Table_Author] 证券分析师 | [Table_Summary] | | | 事件：2025 年 3 月 1 日，统计局公布了 PMI 数据，2 月制造业采购经理指数、 | | 宋亦威 | 非制造业商务活动指数和综合 产出指数分别为 PMI 50.2%、50.4%和 51.1%。 | | 022-23861608 | | | songyw@bhzq.com | 点评：（1）制造业景气水平大幅回升，产需两端均现改善。2 月受春节后企 | | [Table_Author] 严佩佩 | 业陆续复工复产影响，生产指数回升 2.7 个百分点至 52.5%，同时，新订单 | | 022-23839070 | 指数上升 1.9 个百分点至 51.1%。进出口方面，2 月新出口订单回升 2.2 个百 | | SAC No:S1150520110001 | 分点至 48.6%，收缩步伐放缓，一方面与海外制造业景气回暖有关，另 ...

A 股投资策略报告 国际经验下，A 股投资者结构变迁及展望 ――A 股市场投资策略专题 | 分析师： | 宋亦威 | SAC NO： | 年 | 月 | 日 | S1150514080001 | 2025 | 3 | 12 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Table_Author] | 证券分析师 | [Table_Summary 现阶段，沪市] 三类投资者中，一般法人是主要组成部分，持股占比达到 | 56.3%；而自然人投资者和专业机构持股占比相当。从其变化趋势来看， | 宋亦威 | | | | | | | 年之后创业股权基金的发展以及 | 年资管新规对沪市投资者结 | 2008 | 2018 | 宋亦威 | SAC | NO:S1150514080001 | 构产生一定影响。 | SAC NO: S1150514080001 | 022-23861608 | | 美股投资者结构以个人投资者和专业机构为主，其持股占比接近八成； |  | 严佩佩 | 专业机构中，又以共同基金和 | 为主要组成部分。美股当 ...

| 公 | | | | | | | | | | 公司深度报告 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 司 |  | [Table_MainInfo] | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 铝行业"绿色先锋"，业绩弹性有望释放 | | | | | | | 研 | | | | | | | | | ——云铝股份（000807）深度报告 | | | | 究 | 分析师： | 张珂 | | SAC NO： S1150523120001 年 3 月 | 12 | | 2025 | | | | 日 | | | [Table_Analysis] 有色金属——工业金属 | | | [Table_Summary] | | | | | | | | | | | | | 投资要点： | | | | | | | | | | 证券分析师 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |  铝行业"绿色先锋"，24 年公司业绩好转 | | | | | | | | | | [T ...

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Positive" for the next 12 months, indicating an expected increase of over 10% relative to the CSI 300 index [40] Core Viewpoints - In February 2025, excavator sales reached approximately 19,300 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 52.80%. Domestic sales accounted for 11,640 units, with a significant growth of 99.40% [9][30] - Loader sales in February 2025 totaled 8,730 units, showing a year-on-year increase of 34.40%, with domestic sales of 4,505 units, up 63.00% [9][30] - The average working hours for major construction machinery in February 2025 was 46.4 hours, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 70.3% [10][30] - The government’s focus on stabilizing the real estate market is expected to drive demand for construction machinery through urban renewal and the renovation of old residential areas [30] Summary by Sections Industry News - February excavator sales were approximately 19,270 units, with domestic sales of 11,640 units and exports of 7,630 units [9] - Loader sales in February were 8,730 units, with domestic sales of 4,505 units and exports of 4,225 units [9] Industry Data - The average working hours for construction machinery in February 2025 was 46.4 hours, with a year-on-year increase of 70.3% [10] - The average operating rate for construction machinery was 44.6%, an increase of 12.3 percentage points year-on-year [11] Company Announcements - HaiNeng Technology signed a cooperation agreement with Xi'an Jiaotong University to establish a research institute [16] - LanShi Heavy Equipment was approved to establish a national postdoctoral research workstation [17] - HaoZhi Electromechanical plans to establish a joint venture with FengZhiSheng Company [18] Market Review - From March 5 to March 11, 2025, the CSI 300 index rose by 1.45%, while the machinery equipment sector increased by 4.70%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 3.26 percentage points [20] - As of March 11, 2025, the TTM P/E ratio for the machinery equipment sector was 30.50 times, with a premium of 152.14% relative to the CSI 300 [21]

政策方面，3 月 7 日北京市教育委员会发布《北京市推进中小学人工智能教 育工作方案（2025-2027 年）》，自今年秋季学期起，全市中小学将开设人工 智能（AI）通识课程，每学年不少于 8 课时，覆盖小学至高中全学段。我们 认为，小学体验、初中认知、高中实践的分阶段课程模式将合理培养学生尽 早接触人工智能工具，未来人工智能人才的涌现也将反哺行业快速发展。 根据中国工程机械工业协会的数据，受 24 年同期低基数以及设备更新政策持 续带动等多因素影响，25 年 1-2 月挖机销量增幅明显，其中国内市场累计销 量 1.70 万台，同比增长 51.40%，复苏态势明显。我们认为，政府工作报告将 稳住楼市放在重要位置，房地产行业"控量稳价"基调下，城市更新及老旧 小区改造将成为带动工程机械需求的重要增长点，建议关注国内下游资金改 善以及全球需求回暖预期下，工程机械需求的稳步回暖。 行 业 研 究 [Table_MainInfo] 2 月挖掘机销量约 1.93 万台，同比增长 52.80% | | | | | | | | | | | | | ――机械设备行业周报 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- ...