宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 外部环境与内部政策共同影响通胀—— 2025 年 3 月通胀数据点评 研究结论 事件：2025 年 4 月 10 日统计局公布最新通胀数据，2025 年 3 月 CPI 同比-0.1%，前值- 0.7%，环比-0.4%，前值-0.2%；PPI 同比-2.5%，前值-2.2%，环比-0.4%，前值-0.1%。 风险提示 宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 —— 外部环境与内部政策共同影响通胀——2025年3月通胀数据点评 图 1：CPI 和核心 CPI 同比（%） 图 2：服务 CPI 同比及其部分分项（%） ⚫ 政策效果不及预期的风险；地缘冲突演绎导致大宗商品价格波动超预期的风险。 报告发布日期 2025 年 04 月 11 日 | 孙国翔 | sunguoxiang@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523080009 | | 孙金霞 | 021-63325888*7590 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | 曹靖楠 | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | | 021-63325 ...

- The report introduces a dividend prediction model to estimate the impact of dividends on stock index futures contracts. The model involves four key steps: estimating the net profit of index constituent stocks, calculating the pre-tax total dividend for each stock, assessing the impact of dividends on the index, and predicting the theoretical impact of dividends on each contract based on historical patterns and assumptions[23][26][33] - The formula for estimating the weight of a stock in the index is provided as follows: $$\mathrm{w_{it}={\frac{w_{i0}\times\mathrm{\scriptsize{\left(\mathrm{\scriptsize{\normalsize1+R\mathrm{\scriptsize{\normalsize1}}}\right)}}}{\sum_{1}^{n}w_{i0}\times\mathrm{\scriptsize{\left(\mathrm{\scriptsize{\normalsize1+R\mathrm{\scriptsize{\normalsize1}}}\right)}}}}}}$$ where \(w_{i0}\) is the accurate weight of stock \(i\) at time \(t_0\), and \(R\) represents the price change rate of the stock during the period[28] - The theoretical pricing model for stock index futures is based on the no-arbitrage principle. For discrete dividend distributions, the formula is: $$\mathbf{D}=\sum_{\mathrm{i=1}}^{\mathrm{m}}\mathbf{D}_{\mathrm{i}}\,/(1+\phi)$$ where \(D_i\) represents the present value of dividends distributed at different time points, and \(\phi\) is the risk-free rate for the period between dividend distributions. The futures price is then calculated as: $$F_t = (S_t - D)(1 + r)$$ For continuous dividend distributions, the formula is: $$F_t = S_t \cdot e^{(r-d)(T-t)}$$ where \(r\) is the annualized risk-free rate, \(d\) is the annualized dividend yield, and \(T-t\) is the time to maturity[36][37] - The report evaluates the impact of dividends on various stock index futures contracts (e.g., CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000). For example, the predicted dividend points for April contracts are as follows: - CSI 300: 0.85 - CSI 500: 0.24 - CSI 1000: 0.20 The annualized hedging costs (excluding dividends) for these contracts are also calculated, with values such as 24.28% for CSI 300 and 23.62% for CSI 500[11][13][14] - The report highlights the remaining impact of dividends on April contracts for different indices: - CSI 300: 0.02% - CSI 500: 0.00% - CSI 1000: 0.00%[15]

宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 报告发布日期 2025 年 04 月 11 日 | 陈至奕 | 021-63325888*6044 | | --- | --- | | | chenzhiyi@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860519090001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BUK982 | | 孙金霞 | 021-63325888*7590 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | 薛俊 | 021-63325888*6005 | | | xuejun@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860515100002 | | 张书铭 | 021-63325888*5152 | | | zhangshuming@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860517080001 | 溯流而上：面对逆全球化的政策空间 2025-04-09 首次明确平准基金定位，关注稳定资本市 场的战略力量 研究结论 风险提示 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要 ...

新代碳管深绑电池创新链，龙头引领产品 升级 核心观点 老产品价格企稳叠加新产品放量，业绩增长动能强劲。当前传统碳纳米管导电浆料 价格企稳，2024 年公司导电剂浆料销量同比高增，推动营收重回增长轨道。同时， 公司单壁产品以及复配单壁的第四代产品已推向市场进入放量阶段，随着公司新增 产能逐步投放，出货结构将向新代高性能产品倾斜。目前高性能稳定的单壁碳纳米 管处于供不应求状态，单吨粉体价格高达千万元级别，有望为公司带来丰厚利润增 量。 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 由于产品结构变化，我们下调 2024 年收入与利润，预测公司 2024-2026 年归母净利 润分别为 2.53、4.95、6.76 亿元（原 24-25 年预测值为 3.22、4.53 亿元），参考可 比公司 25 年估值水平，给予公司 25 年 32 倍市盈率，对应目标价为 45.76 元，维持 买入评级。 风险提示 | | 1 周 | 1 月 | 3 月 | 12 月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现% | -13.24 | -21.47 | 5.12 | 46.69 | | 相对表现% | -8.15 ...

营收增速边际回升，息差韧性凸显 ——宁波银行 2024 年年报点评 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 61,585 | 66,631 | 71,904 | 78,823 | 87,285 | | 同比增长 (%) | 6.4% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 9.6% | 10.7% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 28,041 | 31,619 | 32,708 | 35,274 | 38,402 | | 同比增长 (%) | 36.7% | 12.8% | 3.4% | 7.8% | 8.9% | | 归属母公司净利润(百万元) | 25,535 | 27,127 | 28,970 | 31,191 | 33,901 | | 同比增长 (%) | 10.7% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 8.7% | | 每股收益(元) | 3.75 | 3.95 | 4.39 | 4.72 | 5.13 | | 每股净资产(元) | 26.71 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 31.59 CNY based on a 27x P/E ratio for 2025 [2][5]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to decline by 2.7% to 2.45 billion CNY, with a recovery expected in 2025, where revenue is forecasted to increase by 17.9% to 2.89 billion CNY [4][10]. - The decline in T300 revenue is attributed to reduced demand in the equipment sector, while T800 revenue is expected to grow significantly due to successful product validation and subsequent mass supply [10]. - The overall gross margin is expected to decrease to 45.5% in 2024, but is projected to recover slightly in the following years [4][10]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2023: 2,518 million CNY - 2024: 2,450 million CNY - 2025: 2,888 million CNY - 2026: 3,366 million CNY - 2027: 3,950 million CNY [4][10] - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2023: 873 million CNY - 2024: 741 million CNY - 2025: 970 million CNY - 2026: 1,124 million CNY - 2027: 1,324 million CNY [4][10] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023: 1.05 CNY - 2024: 0.89 CNY - 2025: 1.17 CNY - 2026: 1.35 CNY - 2027: 1.59 CNY [4][10] - **Profitability Ratios**: - Gross Margin: 48.7% (2023), 45.5% (2024), 48.3% (2025) - Net Margin: 34.7% (2023), 30.3% (2024), 33.6% (2025) - Return on Equity (ROE): 16.9% (2023), 13.5% (2024), 15.9% (2025) [4][10].

吉比特 603444.SH 公司研究 | 年报点评 | | 增持 （维持） | | --- | --- | | 股价（2025年04月08日） | 204.8 元 | | 目标价格 | 207.90 元 | | 52 周最高价/最低价 | 265.93/148.25 元 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（万股） | 7,204/7,204 | | A 股市值（百万元） | 14,754 | | 国家/地区 | 中国 | | 行业 | 传媒 | | 报告发布日期 | 2025 年 04 月 10 日 | | | 1 周 | 1 月 | 3 月 | 12 月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现% | -9.3 | -10.18 | -0.24 | 18.78 | | 相对表现% | -3.21 | -2.74 | 3.41 | 15.55 | | 沪深 300% | -6.09 | -7.44 | -3.65 | 3.23 | | 项雯倩 | 021-63325888*6128 | | --- | --- | | 李雨琪 | xiangwenqian@orientsec. ...

新代碳管深绑电池创新链，龙头引领产品 升级 核心观点 老产品价格企稳叠加新产品放量，业绩增长动能强劲。当前传统碳纳米管导电浆料 价格企稳，2024 年公司导电剂浆料销量同比高增，推动营收重回增长轨道。同时， 公司单壁产品以及复配单壁的第四代产品已推向市场进入放量阶段，随着公司新增 产能逐步投放，出货结构将向新代高性能产品倾斜。目前高性能稳定的单壁碳纳米 管处于供不应求状态，单吨粉体价格高达千万元级别，有望为公司带来丰厚利润增 量。 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 由于产品结构变化，我们下调 2024 年收入与利润，预测公司 2024-2026 年归母净利 润分别为 2.53、4.95、6.76 亿元（原 24-25 年预测值为 3.22、4.53 亿元），参考可 比公司 25 年估值水平，给予公司 25 年 32 倍市盈率，对应目标价为 45.76 元，维持 买入评级。 风险提示 ⚫ 下游锂电池需求不及预期；碳纳米管导电浆料技术迭代和市场应用风险；原材料价 格波动的风险；估值下修风险。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | ...

营收增速边际回升，息差韧性凸显 ——宁波银行 2024 年年报点评 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 结合财报数据，适度上调息差、下调非息收入增速等假设，预测公司 25/26/27 年归 母净利润同比增速为 6.8%/7.7%/8.7%，BVPS 为 35.01/38.75/42.82 元（25/26 年 前预测值 34.08/38.27 元），当前 A 股股价对应 25/26/27 年 PB 为 0.67/0.60/0.55 倍。公司近三年 PB（FY1）均值为 0.99倍，维持20%的折价幅度，对应 25年 0.79 倍 PB，目标价 27.75 元/股，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示 经济复苏不及预期；信贷需求不及预期；资产质量恶化。 公司主要财务信息 | 屈俊 | qujun@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523060001 | | 于博文 | yubowen1@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860524020002 | | | | 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 31.59 CNY based on a 27x P/E ratio for 2025 [2][5]. Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 is expected to be impacted by the demand rhythm in the equipment business and a reduction in government subsidies, but growth is anticipated to resume in 2025 [1]. - The revenue for 2024 is projected to decline by 2.7% to 2.45 billion CNY, with a recovery expected in subsequent years, reaching 2.89 billion CNY in 2025, 3.37 billion CNY in 2026, and 3.95 billion CNY in 2027 [4][10]. Financial Forecasts - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 1.17 CNY in 2025, 1.35 CNY in 2026, and 1.59 CNY in 2027, with previous estimates adjusted downwards [2][4]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to stabilize around 48.3% in 2025, with net profit margins projected at 33.6% [4][10]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to recover to 970 million CNY in 2025, with further growth to 1.32 billion CNY by 2027 [4][10]. Revenue Breakdown - The report highlights a decline in carbon fiber revenue by 12.91% to 1.45 billion CNY, while carbon beam revenue increased by 25.81% to 537 million CNY [10]. - The T300 grade carbon fiber revenue is expected to drop significantly due to downstream equipment demand, while T800 grade revenue is projected to grow substantially as it begins mass supply [10]. Market Performance - The stock price as of April 8, 2025, was 27.46 CNY, with a 52-week high of 39.87 CNY and a low of 23.73 CNY [5]. - The company’s market capitalization is reported at 22.83 billion CNY [5].