Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral investment rating for the automotive and parts industry [5] Core Insights - The upcoming launch of the Huawei brand vehicle, the Zun Jie S800, is expected to enhance market competition in the luxury car segment, leveraging Huawei's strengths in technology and branding [11][40] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the Huawei supply chain, autonomous driving technology leaders, and state-owned enterprises in the automotive sector for potential investment opportunities [2][14] - The report highlights significant order volumes for the Wanjie M8 and M9 models, indicating a positive trend in brand recovery and sales growth [11][12] Industry Overview - The automotive industry is experiencing stable revenue growth, with first-quarter performance exceeding average levels [7] - The automotive sector's performance is reflected in the stock market, with the automotive industry index showing a 1.8% increase, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which decreased by 0.2% [15] - The passenger vehicle segment has shown a notable increase of 5.48%, while the automotive parts sector has slightly declined by 0.70% [15] Sales Tracking - From May 1 to May 18, 2025, the wholesale sales of passenger vehicles reached 858,000 units, marking an 18% year-on-year increase [23] - Cumulative wholesale sales for the year reached 9.326 million units, reflecting a 12% year-on-year growth [23] - The retail sales for the same period were 932,000 units, a 12% increase compared to the previous year [23] Key Companies to Watch - Recommended companies for investment include SAIC Motor, JAC Motors, BYD, Changan Automobile, and others, with specific buy ratings assigned to several of them [2][14] - The report suggests continuous monitoring of companies involved in the Huawei supply chain, humanoid robotics, and autonomous driving technology [2][14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 42.24 CNY based on a reasonable valuation level of 24 times the earnings per share for 2025 [2][5]. Core Views - The company is entering a harvest period for innovative drugs, although its main business faces short-term pressure due to the impact of centralized procurement on the infusion and generic drug segments [1]. - The company achieved a revenue of 21.81 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting a growth of 1.67%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.94 billion CNY, up 19.53% [9]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue decline to 4.39 billion CNY, down 29.42%, and a net profit of 584 million CNY, down 43.07%, primarily due to high base effects from the previous year [9]. - The ADC platform is expected to yield significant commercial results, with key products like SKB264 receiving regulatory approval for multiple indications [9]. - The antibiotic supply-demand structure remains stable, with synthetic biology products contributing to revenue growth [9]. Financial Summary - The company’s projected financials indicate a revenue increase from 21.45 billion CNY in 2023 to 29.19 billion CNY by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 13% [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to grow from 2.46 billion CNY in 2023 to 3.62 billion CNY in 2027, with a notable increase in 2024 [4]. - Earnings per share are projected to be 1.76 CNY in 2025, with a gradual increase to 2.27 CNY by 2027 [4][2]. - The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 50% to 52.7% over the forecast period, indicating a solid profitability outlook [4].

投资策略 | 定期报告 进入政策观察期 ——策略周报 0525 研究结论 风险提示 | 张书铭 | 021-63325888*5152 | | --- | --- | | 17 | zhangshuming@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860517080001 | | 张志鹏 | zhangzhipeng@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860522020002 | | 关税降级提振市场风险偏好：——策略周 | 2025-05-19 | | --- | --- | | 报 0518 | | | 逆周期政策提振市场信心：——策略周报 | 2025-05-12 | | 0512 | | | 物来顺应：——策略周报 0505 | 2025-05-06 | | 以稳为主：——策略周报 0428 | 2025-04-28 | | 缺乏稳定一致预期：——策略周报 0421 | 2025-04-20 | 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 报告发布日期 ...

4 月电新出口整体企稳 核心观点 ⚫ 4 月电新出口整体企稳，逆变器、变压器和电表均呈现环比增长态势，风机出口同 比维系呈现高速增长。 组件：4 月出口 161.58 亿元，环比-1.07%，同比-20.33%。1-4 月累计出口 607.50 亿元，累计同比-28.29%。 逆变器：4 月出口 58.17 亿元，环比+28.17%，同比+17.95%。1-4 月累计出口 180.19 亿元，累计同比+9.94%。 变压器：4 月出口 47.77 亿元，环比+9.27%，同比+33.86%。1-4 月累计出口 178.29 亿元，累计同比+38.30%。 电表：4 月出口 9.80 亿元，环比+28%，同比+34%。1-4 月累计出口 35.32 亿元， 累计同比+14.82%。 风机：4 月出口 1.34 亿美元，环比-7.84%，同比+49.31%。1-4 月累计出口 4.43 亿美元，累计同比+43.84%。 投资建议与投资标的 ⚫ 建议关注德业股份(605117，买入)、阳光电源(300274，未评级)、禾迈股份 (688032，买入)、三星医疗(601567，未评级)、海兴电力(603556，未评级 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company for the first time [1] Core Views - The company is a global leader in ADC and XDC CRDMO, benefiting from strong growth in the ADC sector and unique competitive advantages as an industry leader [5][20] - The ADC market is expected to grow significantly, with projections indicating a market size of $64.7 billion by 2030, driven by advancements in treatment strategies and new drug approvals [9][43] - The company is developing a comprehensive one-stop service platform that covers the entire process from discovery to GMP production, which is expected to accelerate project timelines and enhance growth potential [9][20] Financial Summary - The company’s revenue and net profit have shown rapid growth, with a CAGR of 180% and 121% from 2020 to 2023, respectively [20] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at HKD 5,470.58 million, HKD 7,169.95 million, and HKD 9,202.70 million, with corresponding net profits of HKD 1,257.14 million, HKD 1,695.86 million, and HKD 2,302.43 million [8][6] - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve from 26.35% in 2023 to 34.00% by 2027, while net margin is projected to rise from 13.35% to 25.02% over the same period [8] Market Position - The company holds a 9.8% global market share in the ADC sector, ranking second globally and first domestically, with a significant increase in overseas revenue contribution [68] - The ADC outsourcing service market is projected to grow from $1.5 billion in 2022 to over $11 billion by 2030, indicating a strong demand for the company's services [64][68]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company for the first time [1]. Core Views - The company is a global leader in ADC and XDC CRDMO, with a market share of 9.8% globally and ranked second worldwide, benefiting from the technological and capacity advantages of its major shareholders [5][68]. - The ADC market is experiencing rapid growth, with a projected CAGR of 30.7% from 2024 to 2030, driven by the increasing adoption of ADCs in cancer treatment [9][43]. - The company is expected to see significant revenue and profit growth, with a forecasted revenue of HKD 5,470.58 million in 2025, representing a 35% year-on-year increase [8]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve earnings per share of HKD 1.05, HKD 1.41, and HKD 1.91 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating strong growth potential [6]. - The target price is set at HKD 47.81, based on DCF valuation, reflecting the company's leadership position in the ADC CRDMO sector and its robust project pipeline [6]. Company Overview - The company was established in 2013 and went public in 2023, focusing on the development and manufacturing of ADCs and XDCs [14]. - The core management team has extensive experience in the biopharmaceutical industry, enhancing the company's operational capabilities [18]. Revenue Growth and Profitability - The company has experienced a CAGR of 180% in revenue and 121% in net profit from 2020 to 2023, with a projected revenue growth of 91% and net profit growth of 277% in 2024 [20]. - The gross margin and net margin are expected to improve significantly due to enhanced operational efficiency and increased capacity utilization [23]. Market Dynamics - The ADC market is projected to reach USD 6.47 billion by 2030, with a significant shift towards frontline treatments and combination therapies with immunotherapy [43][48]. - The demand for ADC outsourcing services is expected to grow, with the global ADC outsourcing market projected to exceed USD 11 billion by 2030 [64].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Dividend Impact Prediction Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model aims to predict the impact of dividends on index futures pricing by estimating the dividend points for each contract and incorporating them into the theoretical pricing framework[7][10][20] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. **Estimate Component Stocks' Net Profit**: Use annual reports, quick reports, earnings warnings, or analysts' forecasts to estimate net profits[23][24] 2. **Calculate Pre-Tax Total Dividends**: Based on the assumption that the dividend payout ratio remains unchanged, calculate the total dividend amount as: $$ \text{Estimated Dividend Amount} = \text{Estimated Net Profit} \times \text{Dividend Payout Ratio} $$ If no dividends were distributed in the previous year, assume no dividends this year[28] 3. **Calculate Dividend Impact on Index**: - Dividend Yield: $$ \text{Dividend Yield} = \frac{\text{Tax-Adjusted Total Dividend}}{\text{Latest Market Value}} $$ - Dividend Points: $$ \text{Dividend Points Impact} = \text{Stock Weight} \times \text{Dividend Yield} $$ - Adjust stock weights using the formula: $$ w_{it} = \frac{w_{i0} \times (1 + R)}{\sum_{1}^{n} w_{i0} \times (1 + R)} $$ where \( w_{i0} \) is the initial weight, and \( R \) is the return over the period[25] 4. **Predict Contract Impact**: Aggregate all dividend impacts before the contract's delivery date to estimate the total dividend effect on the futures contract[30] 5. **Theoretical Pricing**: - For discrete dividends: $$ F_t = (S_t - D)(1 + r) $$ where \( D \) is the present value of dividends, and \( r \) is the risk-free rate[33] - For continuous dividends: $$ F_t = S_t e^{(r-d)(T-t)} $$ where \( d \) is the annualized dividend yield[34] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a systematic approach to incorporate dividend forecasts into futures pricing, enhancing accuracy in predicting contract price movements[7][10][20] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Dividend Impact Prediction Model - **Dividend Points for June Contracts**: - SSE 50: 17.28 - CSI 300: 20.75 - CSI 500: 35.79 - CSI 1000: 32.06[7][10][15] - **Annualized Hedging Costs (Excluding Dividends)**: - SSE 50: 0.76% - CSI 300: 5.14% - CSI 500: 12.79% - CSI 1000: 18.63%[7][10][15] - **Remaining Impact of Dividends on June Contracts**: - SSE 50: 0.64% - CSI 300: 0.53% - CSI 500: 0.63% - CSI 1000: 0.54%[15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Anhui Heli, with a target price of 17.21 CNY [5][2] Core Views - The company faces high costs that are squeezing some profits, but its internationalization and industrial chain layout continue to inject development momentum [1] - Revenue for 2024 is projected to be 17.33 billion CNY, a slight increase of 1% year-on-year, while net profit is expected to be 1.32 billion CNY, reflecting a minimal growth of 0.2% [10] - The company is expanding its overseas strategy, with significant growth in exports and overseas revenue, which accounted for 40% of total revenue in 2024 [10] - The company is enhancing its industrial chain layout by investing in smart logistics and reducing related transactions through acquisitions [10] Financial Summary - Revenue and profit figures for 2023 and projections for 2024-2027 are as follows: - 2023 Revenue: 17.156 billion CNY, 2024 Revenue: 17.325 billion CNY (1% growth) - 2024 Net Profit: 1.32 billion CNY, 2025 Net Profit: 1.442 billion CNY (9.3% growth) [4][10] - The gross margin for 2024 is expected to be 23.46%, an increase of 2.84 percentage points year-on-year [10] - The company’s net profit margin for 2024 is projected at 7.6% [4][10] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at 1.48 CNY, with a gradual increase to 2.02 CNY by 2027 [4][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The recovery of Blizzard games is expected to drive growth, with new mobile games like "Marvel Secret Wars" and "Destiny Stars" anticipated to launch [3] - The company's projected net profit for 2025-2027 is estimated at 36 billion, 38.1 billion, and 41.5 billion CNY respectively, reflecting an upward adjustment in gross margin and investment income [3] - The target price is set at 210.13 HKD / 193.03 CNY, indicating a potential upside from the current price [3] Financial Performance Summary - For 2023A, the company reported total revenue of 103,468 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 7.23% [4] - The operating profit for 2023A was 27,709 million CNY, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 41.17% [4] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023A was 29,417 million CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 44.64% [4] - The gross margin for 2023A was 60.95%, with a projected increase to 64.59% by 2027E [4] - The net profit margin for 2023A was 28.43%, expected to rise to 31.00% by 2027E [4] Revenue Breakdown - In Q1 2025, total revenue reached 28,829 million CNY, with a year-on-year increase of 7.4% [9] - The revenue from games and related value-added services in Q1 2025 was 24,048 million CNY, up 12.1% year-on-year [9] - Mobile game revenue in Q1 2025 was 15,359 million CNY, down 4.4% year-on-year, while PC game revenue surged by 85% to 8,088 million CNY [9] Future Projections - The company expects Q2 2025 mobile game revenue to face less year-on-year pressure, while PC game revenue is anticipated to remain strong [9] - The projected revenue for 2025E is 114,089 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 8.35% [10] - The estimated operating profit for 2025E is 36,475 million CNY, reflecting a growth rate of 23.29% [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of $1.75 per ADS [2][5]. Core Views - The company is expected to increase its focus on short dramas, which is anticipated to drive a rebound in ROI in the long term. The GAAP net profits for 2025-2027 are projected to be 396 million, 1.647 billion, and 2.347 billion CNY respectively [2]. - The report adjusts the previous profit forecasts due to changes in the competitive landscape for long videos in 2025 [2]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2023 is projected at 31.873 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 9.91%. However, a decline of 8.31% is expected in 2024 [4]. - The GAAP net profit for 2023 is estimated at 1.925 billion CNY, with a significant decline of 1513.58% year-on-year [4]. - The gross margin is expected to decrease from 27.52% in 2023 to 23.78% in 2025, before recovering to 26.32% in 2026 and 26.74% in 2027 [4]. - The company’s operating income is projected to be 2.989 billion CNY in 2023, decreasing to 1.107 billion CNY in 2025, but expected to rise to 2.188 billion CNY by 2027 [4]. Revenue Breakdown - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 7.186 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 9.35%. The membership service revenue was 4.399 billion CNY, down 8.3% year-on-year [10][11]. - Advertising revenue for Q1 2025 was 1.328 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 10.4% [10]. - Content distribution revenue was reported at 629 million CNY for Q1 2025, down 32.3% year-on-year [10]. Market Performance - The stock price as of May 22, 2025, was $1.69, with a 52-week high of $4.92 and a low of $1.50 [5]. - The company has a market capitalization of $16.27 billion [5]. Comparative Valuation - The adjusted average P/E ratio for comparable companies in 2025 is estimated at 31X, indicating a valuation benchmark for the company [12].