Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve an EPS of 1.06/1.17 CNY for 2025-26, with a new forecast of 1.42 CNY for 2027. The target price is set at 56.18 CNY based on a PE ratio of 53 for 2025 [2] - The company reported a significant revenue increase of 22.63% year-on-year for 2024, reaching 27.985 billion CNY, and a net profit increase of 47.28%, totaling 6.337 billion CNY [9] - The company is actively advancing its internationalization efforts, with several products receiving FDA approval and significant licensing agreements contributing to revenue growth [9] Financial Information Summary - Revenue (in million CNY): - 2023A: 22,820 - 2024A: 27,985 (22.6% YoY growth) - 2025E: 31,684 (13.2% YoY growth) - 2026E: 35,553 (12.2% YoY growth) - 2027E: 40,900 (15.0% YoY growth) [4] - Net Profit (in million CNY): - 2023A: 4,302 - 2024A: 6,337 (47.3% YoY growth) - 2025E: 6,759 (6.7% YoY growth) - 2026E: 7,477 (10.6% YoY growth) - 2027E: 9,060 (21.2% YoY growth) [4] - EPS (in CNY): - 2023A: 0.67 - 2024A: 0.99 - 2025E: 1.06 - 2026E: 1.17 - 2027E: 1.42 [4] - Gross Margin: - 2023A: 84.6% - 2024A: 86.2% - 2025E: 84.5% - 2026E: 84.9% - 2027E: 85.4% [4] - Net Margin: - 2023A: 18.9% - 2024A: 22.6% - 2025E: 21.3% - 2026E: 21.0% - 2027E: 22.2% [4]

固定收益 | 专题报告 转债市场 25 年一季度回顾及展望 研究结论 风险提示 可转债风险暴露超预期；可转债强赎风险；数据统计可能存在遗误 报告发布日期 2025 年 04 月 08 日 | 齐晟 | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | 杜林 | dulin@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860522080004 | 继续做波段，把握利率下行机会：2025 年 3 月小品种月报 2025-04-04 二季度债市或可乐观一点：固定收益市场 周观察 2025-03-31 央行多投放流动性了吗？：固定收益市场 2025-03-25 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 周观察 ⚫ 一季度权益市场，在政策和产业热点带动下，以科技成长为代表的中小盘显著占 优，而传统蓝筹板块则略显乏力。中小盘行情使得转债在一季度同样量价齐升，但 因估值偏高，表现相对较弱，除科技成长板块行情带动外， ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [5] Core Insights - The report indicates that major US consumer companies are cautious about future fiscal year expectations, primarily due to tariff pressures and consumer downgrading trends in the US market. However, companies like Walmart and Lululemon express a more optimistic outlook for the Chinese market [3][23] - Recommendations include buying leading sportswear brand Anta Sports (02020), and considering Li Ning (02331), Xtep International (01368), and Tabo (06110) for buying or holding. Additionally, long-term prospects are favorable for resilient leading manufacturers such as Shenzhou International (02313), Weixing Co., Ltd. (002003), and Huali Group (300979) [3][23] Summary by Sections US Consumer Giants Performance - Walmart's FY26 revenue growth guidance is 3-4%, with a same-store sales increase of 23.1% in FY25Q4, driven by strong e-commerce and new store openings [10][13] - Target expects FY25 revenue growth of about 1%, with same-store sales remaining flat, facing pressure from tariffs and operational costs [14][15] - Dollar General anticipates FY25 revenue growth of 3.4-4.4%, with core consumers facing economic challenges and a notable trend of consumer downgrading [17][18] - Nike projects a mid-double-digit revenue decline for FY25Q4, with significant inventory issues and a 15% revenue drop in the Greater China region [19][20] - Lululemon expects FY25 revenue growth of 5-7%, with a strong growth forecast of 25-30% in the Greater China region [21][22] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a cautious approach towards US consumer giants due to tariff pressures and consumer behavior changes, while highlighting positive growth prospects in China for certain brands [3][23]

——AI 周度跟踪 2025 年第 4 期 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 ⚫ 看好 AI 新周期带动算力-算法-应用生态三端依次持续推进，我们建议增加港股互联 网板块配置仓位，核心推荐处于产业链前端，云消费弹性明显+算法具备优势的阿 里巴巴-W(09988，买入)，多模态视频生成模型技术全球领先的快手-W(01024，买 入)，以及卡位最佳社交场景，具备数据+应用生态优势的腾讯控股(00700，买 入)。 风险提示 传媒行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 快手加速 AI 布局，关注国内大模型发布动 态 行业发展及 AI 应用落地不及预期，假设条件变化影响测算结果，宏观经济风险，海外政 策风险。 国家/地区 中国 行业 传媒行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 04 月 08 日 | 项雯倩 | 021-63325888*6128 | | --- | --- | | | xiangwenqian@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860517020003 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BQP120 | | 李雨琪 | 021-63325888-3023 | | | liyuqi@orients ...

重大资产购买已实施完成，期待协同效应 逐步释放 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 适当调整毛利率与费用率假设，我们预测 2024-2026 年公司归母净利润分别为 1.89/2.06/2.18 亿元（此前预测 2024-2025 年归母净利润 2.38/2.76 亿元），对应 EPS 为 0.45/0.49/0.52 元。我们采取 DCF 绝对估值法对公司进行估值，给予公司 DCF 目标估值 9.80 元，维持"增持"评级 风险提示 ⚫ 收入结构对大客户依赖度较高；无菌纸基包装行业竞争加剧；巴氏奶消费占比提升 带来对上游包装需求的结构性变动；原材料价格上涨。 新巨丰 301296.SZ 公司研究 | 动态跟踪 | | 增持 （维持） | | --- | --- | | 股价（2025年04月07日） | 8.21 元 | | 目标价格 | 9.80 元 | | 52 周最高价/最低价 | 12/6.51 元 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（万股） | 42,000/27,168 | | A 股市值（百万元） | 3,448 | | 国家/地区 | 中国 | | 行业 | 造纸轻工 | | 报告发布日期 | 20 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 9.80 CNY, reflecting a potential upside from the current price of 8.21 CNY [2][4][9]. Core Insights - The company has completed a significant asset acquisition, which is expected to gradually release synergies and enhance its competitive position in the global liquid milk industry [8]. - The liquid milk industry is experiencing continuous expansion, with a stable cost environment for raw materials, suggesting a robust growth outlook for the company [8]. - Adjustments to gross margin and expense assumptions lead to revised net profit forecasts for 2024-2026, with expected profits of 189 million CNY, 206 million CNY, and 218 million CNY respectively [2][9]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 1,737 million CNY in 2023 to 2,079 million CNY by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 5.9% [6]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 21.7% in 2023 to 24.6% by 2026, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [6]. - The net profit margin is forecasted to stabilize around 10.5% from 2024 onwards, reflecting consistent profitability [6]. Valuation and Market Position - The company is positioned as the largest domestic manufacturer of aseptic paper-based packaging, poised to benefit from the trend of domestic substitution in the industry [9]. - The DCF valuation method applied suggests a target price of 9.80 CNY, indicating a favorable investment opportunity based on projected cash flows [10].

固定收益 | 动态跟踪 4 月或是供给压力缓和期 固定收益市场周观察 研究结论 风险提示 政策变化超预期；货币政策变化超预期；经济基本面变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预 期；数据统计可能存在遗误 报告发布日期 2025 年 04 月 08 日 | 齐晟 | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | 杜林 | dulin@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860522080004 | | 王静颖 | wangjingying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523080003 | 继续做波段，把握利率下行机会：2025 年 3 月小品种月报 2025-04-04 二季度债市或可乐观一点：固定收益市场 周观察 2025-03-31 央行多投放流动性了吗？：固定收益市场 周观察 2025-03-25 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 徐沛翔 xup ...

投资策略 | 定期报告 关税风暴，关注国内政策对冲 ——策略周报 0407 研究结论 风险提示 17 张书铭 021-63325888*5152 zhangshuming@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860517080001 张志鹏 zhangzhipeng@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860522020002 段怡芊 duanyiqian@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860524010001 香港证监会牌照：BVI649 薛俊 021-63325888*6005 xuejun@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860515100002 | 从政策博弈到基本面验证：——策略周报 | 2025-03-30 | | --- | --- | | 0331 | | | 情绪退潮、A 股高位回落：——策略周报 | 2025-03-24 | | 0324 | | | A 股延续强势，建议关注科技产业趋势的 | 2025-03-16 | | 反弹行情：——策略周报 0316 | | | 港股表现强势，继续关注科技股中长期行 | 202 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating and adjusts the target price to HKD 1.73 [4][7] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of approximately CNY 6.97 billion for 2024, which is essentially flat year-on-year; the net loss attributable to the parent company is about CNY 451 million, an increase in loss of 3.7% year-on-year; the core net profit attributable to the parent company is approximately CNY 800 million, also flat year-on-year [3][11] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2022 was CNY 7.126 billion, decreasing to CNY 7.010 billion in 2023, and projected to be CNY 6.970 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 0.6% [6] - The operating profit showed a loss of CNY 730 million in 2022, improving to a loss of CNY 412 million in 2023, but projected to worsen again to a loss of CNY 604 million in 2024 [6] - The net profit attributable to the parent company was a loss of CNY 482 million in 2022, a loss of CNY 435 million in 2023, and is projected to be a loss of CNY 451 million in 2024 [6] - The gross margin is expected to be 21.9% in 2024, down from 23.8% in 2023 [6] Business Segment Performance - The property management business revenue reached CNY 6.38 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.6%, accounting for 91.5% of total revenue; community service revenue was CNY 440 million, down 6.5% year-on-year; non-owner value-added services continued to shrink, with revenue decreasing by 61.0% to CNY 147 million [11] - The company’s managed area remained stable at 291 million square meters by the end of 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 7% [11] - The company focused on core cities, with the signing amount in core cities accounting for approximately 98% of total contracts in 2024 [11] Adjustments and Provisions - The company made a provision for bad debts of CNY 1.087 billion in 2024, with a significant portion (CNY 763 million) related to receivables from related parties, which severely impacted profits [11] - After excluding the effects of provisions and amortization, the core net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 was CNY 800 million, remaining flat year-on-year [11]

特宝生物 688278.SH 公司研究 | 年报点评 | | 买入 （维持） | | --- | --- | | 股价（2025年04月03日） | 78.35 元 | | 目标价格 | 87.04 元 | | 52 周最高价/最低价 | 88.38/46.3 元 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（万股） | 40,680/40,680 | | A 股市值（百万元） | 31,873 | | 国家/地区 | 中国 | | 行业 | 医药生物 | | 报告发布日期 | 2025 年 04 月 07 日 | | | 1 周 | 1 月 | 3 月 | 12 月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现% | -2.82 | -2.82 | 6.58 | 23.93 | | 相对表现% | -1.02 | -2.13 | 4.29 | 15.7 | | 沪深 300% | -1.8 | -0.69 | 2.29 | 8.23 | | 伍云飞 | wuyunfei1@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860524020001 ...