Market Overview - In May, A-shares showed mixed performance with the Wind All A Index rising by 2.2% while the Sci-Tech 50 Index fell by 3.9%[8] - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a rebound, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Technology Index increasing by 5.7% and 1.9% respectively as of May 27, 2025[10] A-share Strategy - A-shares are expected to trend upwards due to ongoing policy support and inflows of medium to long-term capital, with current valuations near the average since 2010[13] - Three asset categories are recommended for investment: - Stable assets such as high-dividend stocks and gold, which provide certainty in uncertain markets[16] - Self-sufficient industrial chains, focusing on domestic alternatives due to the dual circulation strategy[16] - Domestic consumption, which is expected to remain resilient amid uncertain overseas policies[17] Hong Kong Stock Strategy - The Hong Kong market is anticipated to continue its upward trend, supported by low valuations in the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Technology Index[18] - A "barbell" investment strategy is suggested, focusing on: - Self-sufficient sectors like chips and high-end manufacturing amid US-China tensions[18] - Internet technology companies with independent growth prospects[18] - High-dividend, low-volatility sectors such as telecommunications and utilities[18] Recommended Stocks - June 2025 A-share stock picks include: - ZG股份, 格力电器, 海尔智家, 中国石油, 中国海油, 中国石化, 紫金矿业, 招商积余, 鸿路钢构, 濮耐股份[22] - June 2025 Hong Kong stock picks include: - 网易-S, 腾讯控股, 香港交易所, 地平线机器人-W[25] Risk Factors - Potential risks include slower-than-expected policy implementation, significant deterioration in US-China relations, and unforeseen risk events[4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the oil and gas sector, specifically for the "Big Three" oil companies and oil service companies [5]. Core Viewpoints - The long-term outlook for oil prices remains optimistic due to improving supply-demand dynamics and ongoing geopolitical risks that provide price support [1]. - The "Big Three" oil companies in China are expected to increase their oil and gas equivalent production by 1.6%, 1.3%, and 5.9% respectively by 2025, with significant growth in natural gas production [2]. - The downstream sector is accelerating its transformation towards new materials and clean energy, with major companies investing in high-value products and energy supply networks [3]. - Investment recommendations include focusing on undervalued, high-dividend, and well-performing companies in the oil and gas sector, as well as materials companies benefiting from domestic substitution trends [4]. Summary by Sections Oil and Gas Sector - Oil prices are supported by geopolitical tensions and a slowdown in U.S. shale oil production, with the IEA projecting increases in U.S. crude supply of 440,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 180,000 barrels per day in 2026 [1]. - The "Big Three" oil companies are responding to national calls for increased reserves and production, with specific growth targets set for oil and gas equivalent production [2]. Downstream Transformation - Companies are enhancing their refining and sales operations, transitioning to comprehensive energy suppliers, and investing in electric vehicle infrastructure [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the "Big Three" oil companies, oil service firms, and companies in the materials sector that are poised to benefit from domestic substitution trends [4].

2025 年 5 月 29 日 要点 事件：公司发布 1Q25 业绩，实现收入 1113 亿元，同比增长 47.4%，创下 单季度历史新高并连续两个季度营收超千亿元；Non-IFRS 净利润达 107 亿 元，同比增长 64.5%，净利率提升至 9.6%，盈利能力显著改善。 1Q25 小米手机出货连续 19 个季度稳居全球前三，国内市场高端机出货占比 提升至 25%。1)出货量方面， 1Q25 小米手机全球出货同比增长 3%至 4180 万台，其中中国市场表现亮眼，1Q25 小米在中国大陆出货市占率 18.8%， 同比提升 4.7pct、时隔十年重回第一，中国出货同比增速 40%，远超行业增 速（1Q25 中国智能手机市场出货 yoy+5%）2)ASP 方面， 1Q25 小米手机 ASP 提升至 1211 元，yoy+5.8%/qoq+0.7%，主要受益于国补+高 ASP 的国 内出货占比提升。3)毛利率方面，1Q25 手机业务毛利率 12.4%，较 4Q24 的 12.0%环比提升 0.4pct，核心受益于海外市场产品结构改善。 IoT 收入&毛利率再创新高，广告带动互联网业务稳步增长。1)IoT 业务: ...

2025 年 5 月 29 日 行业研究 油价长期不悲观，继续看好"三桶油"及油服板块 ——石化化工交运行业日报第 70 期（20250528） 要点 供需前景改善叠加地缘政治风险仍存，油价仍有底部支撑。需求方面，本周 美欧谈判取得积极进展，特朗普推迟对欧盟关税的起征时间，且表示对欧盟 加快贸易谈判进程感到鼓舞，贸易冲突缓和或有望提振原油需求。地缘政治 方面，本周西方对俄制裁风险上升，欧盟正在讨论对俄罗斯实施新一轮制 裁，包括针对俄石油的相关措施、降低俄石油和石油产品价格上限以及针对 俄罗斯"影子舰队"船只的新限制措施，特朗普亦考虑本周对俄实施制裁， 因其对俄罗斯总统普京持续攻击乌克兰及和平谈判进展缓慢感到不满，地缘 政治风险仍为油价提供支撑。供给端，近期油价下行对美国页岩油增产前景 造成较大影响，IEA 预计 25、26 年美国原油供应量增幅分别为 44 万桶/日和 18 万桶/日，美国页岩油增产放缓有望部分抵消全球原油供给增长带来的冲 击。 "三桶油"加强"增储上产"，油气产量有望稳步上行。"三桶油"响应国 家"增储上产"号召，中国石油、中国石化、中国海油 2025 年油气当量产 量计划分别增长 1.6% ...

公司研究 2025 年 5 月 29 日 智能手机出货份额重回国内第一，单季营收&经调整净利润再创新高 ——小米集团（1810.HK）2025 年一季度业绩点评 要点 事件：公司发布 1Q25 业绩，实现收入 1113 亿元，同比增长 47.4%，创下 单季度历史新高并连续两个季度营收超千亿元；Non-IFRS 净利润达 107 亿 元，同比增长 64.5%，净利率提升至 9.6%，盈利能力显著改善。 1Q25 小米手机出货连续 19 个季度稳居全球前三，国内市场高端机出货占比 提升至 25%。1)出货量方面， 1Q25 小米手机全球出货同比增长 3%至 4180 万台，其中中国市场表现亮眼，1Q25 小米在中国大陆出货市占率 18.8%， 同比提升 4.7pct、时隔十年重回第一，中国出货同比增速 40%，远超行业增 速（1Q25 中国智能手机市场出货 yoy+5%）2)ASP 方面， 1Q25 小米手机 ASP 提升至 1211 元，yoy+5.8%/qoq+0.7%，主要受益于国补+高 ASP 的国 内出货占比提升。3)毛利率方面，1Q25 手机业务毛利率 12.4%，较 4Q24 的 12.0%环比提 ...

2025 年 5 月 29 日 晨会速递 分析师点评 市场数据 总量研究 【宏观】专项债"收储"进展几何？——《见微知著》第二十三篇 投资建议：（1）持续看好低估值、高股息、业绩好的"三桶油"及油服板块。建议 关注：中国石油、中国石化、中国海油、中海油服、海油工程、海油发展；（2）持 续看好国产替代趋势下的材料企业，国产半导体材料、面板材料有望受益，建议关注： 晶瑞电材、彤程新材、奥来德；（3）看好农药化肥及民营大炼化板块，建议关注： 万华化学、华鲁恒升、华锦股份；（4）看好维生素及蛋氨酸板块，建议关注：安迪 苏、浙江医药、新和成。 风险分析：原材料快速下跌和维持高位、下游需求不及预 期风险。 今年以来，各地公布的专项债收购存量土地计划金额超 3500 亿元，但实际已发行的 专项债规模偏低，仅为 561 亿元，发行节奏有待进一步跟踪。结构来看，1）土地"收 储"多集中在经济、债务情况较好的地区，已发行土储专项债省份均为"自发自审" 试点地区；2）去库压力较大的三四线城市参与"收储"积极性较高；3）回购土地主 体多为城投平台，与此前城投大量拿地但开工率较低有关。 行业研究 【基化】新一轮环保督察启动，友道化学爆 ...

分析师：高瑞东 执业证书编号：S0930520120002 010-56513066 gaoruidong@ebscn.com 分析师：刘星辰 执业证书编号：S0930522030001 021-52523880 liuxc@ebscn.com 2025 年 5 月 28 日 总量研究 专项债"收储"进展几何？ ——《见微知著》第二十三篇 作者 相关研报 我国哪些产品可以无惧关税压力？——《见 微知著》第二十二篇（2025-05-15） 今年以来"以旧换新"政策效果如何？—— 《见微知著》第二十一篇（2025-05-12） 从上市公司三季报看政策刺激效果——《见 微知著》系列第二十篇（2024-11-16） 政策组合拳出击，有效激活财富效应——《见 微知著》系列第十九篇（2024-11-01） 从中报数据看当前经济的微观结构——《见 微知著》系列第十八篇（2024-09-05） 为何高能级城市消费走弱？——《见微知著》 系列第十七篇（2024-08-14） 如何理解房地产"一揽子"优化方案？—— 《见微知著》系列第十六篇（2024-05-18） 财报数据显示当前经济的微观感受如何？ ——《见微知著》系列第十五 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company is continuously optimizing its business structure by focusing on high-growth areas such as automotive electronics, high-performance computing, storage, and 5G communications, with revenue contributions from various segments projected for 2024: 44.8% from communication electronics, 24.1% from consumer electronics, 16.2% from computing electronics, 7.9% from automotive electronics, and 7.0% from industrial and medical electronics [1][2] - The computing electronics segment is identified as a significant growth driver, with a projected revenue increase of 38.1% year-on-year in 2024, supported by the acquisition of an 80% stake in Shengdi Semiconductor, enhancing market share in the storage and computing electronics sector [2] - The automotive electronics business is also expanding, with a revenue growth forecast of 20.5% year-on-year in 2024, significantly outpacing industry averages, and the company is advancing the construction of its automotive electronics packaging and testing production base in Shanghai, expected to commence operations in the second half of 2025 [2] - The company is diversifying into smart terminal RF, power, and energy sectors, developing advanced packaging technologies to support 5G, WiFi RF modules, and APU integration applications, while also advancing third-generation semiconductor power devices and modules [3] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 29.66 billion yuan in 2023 to 49.99 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 14.94% from 2024 to 2026 [4][9] - Net profit is expected to increase from 1.47 billion yuan in 2023 to 3.04 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a significant recovery and growth trajectory [4][9] - The report adjusts the net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 downwards to 2.16 billion yuan and 2.50 billion yuan respectively, while introducing a new forecast for 2027 at 3.04 billion yuan [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Viewpoints - The company is continuously optimizing its business structure by focusing on high-performance packaging technology and high-value applications, accelerating its strategic layout in automotive electronics, high-performance computing, storage, and 5G communication [1][2] - The revenue distribution for 2024 is projected as follows: Communication Electronics (44.8%), Consumer Electronics (24.1%), Computing Electronics (16.2%), Automotive Electronics (7.9%), and Industrial & Medical Electronics (7.0%), with all markets except industrial showing double-digit year-on-year growth [1] - The computing electronics segment is a significant growth driver, with a projected revenue increase of 38.1% year-on-year in 2024, supported by the acquisition of 80% of Shengdi Semiconductor, enhancing market share in the storage and computing electronics sector [2] - The automotive electronics sector is also expanding, with a revenue growth of 20.5% year-on-year in 2024, significantly above the industry average, and the company is progressing on a new production base in Shanghai expected to commence operations in the second half of 2025 [2] - The company is diversifying into smart terminal RF, power, and energy sectors, developing advanced packaging technologies to support 5G, WiFi RF modules, and AIGC computing energy solutions [3] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 29.66 billion in 2023 to 49.99 billion in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 14.94% from 2024 to 2025 [4][9] - Net profit is expected to increase from 1.47 billion in 2023 to 3.04 billion in 2027, with a notable growth rate of 33.90% in 2025 [4][9] - The report adjusts the net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 downwards to 2.16 billion and 2.50 billion respectively, while introducing a new forecast for 2027 at 3.04 billion [3][4]

2025 年 5 月 28 日 行业研究 新一轮环保督察启动，友道化学爆炸，持续关注农药和颜料板块 ——石化化工交运行业日报第 69 期（20250527） 要点 第三轮第四批中央生态环境保护督察全面启动。根据人民网新闻，5 月 26 日，根据《生态环境保护督察工作条例》，经党中央、国务院批准，第三轮 第四批中央生态环境保护督察全面启动。组建 8 个中央生态环境保护督察组 （以下简称督察组），分别对山西、内蒙古、山东、陕西、宁夏 5 省（区） 开展督察，统筹开展黄河流域督察和省域督察，同时对中国华能集团有限公 司、中国大唐集团有限公司、国家电力投资集团有限公司 3 家中央企业开展 督察，进驻时间约 1 个月。这是《生态环境保护督察工作条例》发布实施后 的第一批督察。此外，近年来宁夏等地已有多个项目因环保等因素关停。 农药行业产能格局持续优化，友道化学发生爆炸，氯虫苯甲酰胺供应受到影 响。农药方面，近年来我国扎实推进农药行业的减量增效，部分环保不达标 的中小企业陆续退出市场。当前农药原药价格已至底部，渠道库存拐点有望 到来，未来随着环保政策的逐渐趋严，农药行业产能格局将进一步优化。此 外，5 月 27 日 11 ...