Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the copper industry [6]. Core Viewpoints - The report is optimistic about the upward trend in copper prices, expecting continued price increases due to tightening supply and improving demand [4][10]. - As of December 26, 2025, SHFE copper closed at 98,720 CNY/ton, up 5.95% from December 19, and LME copper closed at 12,133 USD/ton, up 3.37% [1][18]. - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasizes the need for enhanced management and optimization of the copper smelting industry [1]. Supply and Demand Summary - **Supply**: Domestic copper concentrate production in October 2025 was 130,000 tons, down 8.1% month-on-month and down 12.1% year-on-year. The domestic port copper concentrate inventory as of December 26, 2025, was 775,000 tons, up 5.9% from the previous week [2][50]. - **Demand**: The cable industry, which accounts for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand, saw a decrease in operating rates to 60.75%, down 5.96 percentage points from the previous week. Air conditioning production for January 2026 is expected to increase by 11% year-on-year [3][88]. Inventory Summary - Domestic copper social inventory increased by 16.8% week-on-week, while LME copper inventory decreased by 4.3% [2][27]. - As of December 19, 2025, global copper inventory across the three major exchanges totaled 716,000 tons, up 1.4% from December 12 [2][27]. Futures Market Summary - The active SHFE copper contract saw a 2% increase in open interest, reaching 252,000 contracts as of December 26, 2025 [4][34]. - COMEX non-commercial net long positions were at 65,000 contracts, up 3.8% week-on-week, indicating strong market sentiment [4][34]. Company Profit Forecasts and Valuation - Key companies in the copper sector are projected to have the following earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios: - Western Mining (601168.SH): EPS of 1.72 for 2025E, PE of 16 [5]. - Zijin Mining (601899.SH): EPS of 1.94 for 2025E, PE of 17 [5]. - Luoyang Molybdenum (603993.SH): EPS of 0.89 for 2025E, PE of 22 [5]. - Jincheng Mining (603979.SH): EPS of 3.61 for 2025E, PE of 23 [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metals sectors [5] Core Insights - The report highlights that hot-rolled inventory is at its highest level for the same period in five years, indicating potential supply chain pressures [41] - The liquidity environment is characterized by a historical high in gold prices, with the London gold spot price reaching $4,533 per ounce [11] - The report notes a decline in construction activity, with national real estate new starts down 20.50% year-on-year for the first 11 months of 2025 [20] Summary by Relevant Sections Liquidity - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index for December 2025 is at 47.15, down 10.19% month-on-month [11] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -3.1 percentage points in November 2025, a decrease of 1.10 percentage points month-on-month [18] - The current London gold price is $4,533 per ounce, reflecting a 4.41% increase from the previous week [11] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - Hot-rolled inventory is at the highest level for the same period in five years, with rebar prices down 1.20% this week [41] - The national high furnace capacity utilization rate is at 85%, unchanged from the previous week [10] - The cement price index has decreased by 0.49% this week, with a national cement utilization rate of 30.14%, down 0.9 percentage points [59] Industrial Chain - The national semi-steel tire operating rate is at 72.05%, up 0.66 percentage points week-on-week [2] - The price of tungsten concentrate has reached a new high since 2012, at 460,500 yuan per ton, up 6.35% from last week [2] - The price of electrolytic aluminum is 22,060 yuan per ton, reflecting a 1.01% increase week-on-week [10] Price Relationships - The price difference between hot-rolled and rebar has turned positive, with the current difference at 10 yuan per ton [3] - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore is 4.02 this week [3] - The price of stainless steel hot-rolled and electrolytic nickel has a ratio of 0.10 [3] Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in November is 47.60%, an increase of 1.7 percentage points month-on-month [3] - The CCFI composite index for container shipping rates is at 1,146.67 points, up 1.95% week-on-week [3] - The U.S. crude steel capacity utilization rate is at 75.30%, down 1.20 percentage points from the previous week [3] Valuation Metrics - The CSI 300 index increased by 1.95%, with the chemical sector performing best at +4.23% [4] - The PB ratio for the steel sector relative to the CSI 300 is currently at 0.50, with a historical high of 0.82 [4] - The report suggests that the steel sector's supply may be reasonably constrained, leading to potential recovery in profitability to historical average levels [4]

Investment Ratings - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both the power equipment and environmental protection sectors [1]. Core Views - The AIDC power/storage, lithium battery, and hydrogen-ammonia sectors are highlighted as key investment areas, with a focus on the North American AI chain and the ongoing demand for energy storage solutions [3]. - The lithium battery sector is experiencing a recovery due to supply chain adjustments and production cuts among phosphate lithium companies, which are expected to enhance pricing power [4]. - The hydrogen-ammonia sector is viewed positively due to supportive policies and market expectations, with significant investment potential anticipated [4]. Summary by Sections AIDC Power/Storage - North American AI chain is driving interest in AIDC power and storage, with liquid cooling technology opening new order opportunities [3]. - The outlook for overseas energy storage remains strong, particularly in the U.S., where electricity shortages continue to drive demand [6]. Lithium Batteries - Recent environmental assessments for lithium mines and production cuts among phosphate lithium companies are expected to stabilize prices and enhance negotiation power [4]. - The investment hierarchy for lithium materials is ranked as follows: lithium carbonate > hexafluorophosphate > aluminum foil > separator > copper foil > anode [4][19]. Hydrogen-Ammonia and Wind Power - The hydrogen-ammonia sector is expected to gain traction as a key application for renewable energy consumption, supported by favorable policies [4]. - Wind power installations are projected to grow significantly, with onshore wind capacity expected to increase by 9.68% year-on-year in 2024 [7]. Energy Storage - The domestic energy storage market is experiencing sustained growth, with significant installations reported in Inner Mongolia [6]. - Key projects include a 20GWh energy cell procurement by Ningde Times and various large-scale storage projects in Shanxi and Hebei [6]. Wind Power - The report notes a substantial increase in wind power installations, with a total of 82.50GW added in 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 59.42% [7]. Pricing Trends - The report indicates that the prices of key materials such as lithium carbonate and phosphoric iron lithium are experiencing fluctuations, with market dynamics affecting supply and demand [20][30].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the petrochemical sector [4] Core Viewpoints - The 2025 CITIC Petrochemical Index recorded an annual increase of 15.1%, underperforming compared to the CSI 300 and Wind All A indices, with an excess return rate of -6.8% [8][11] - The "Big Three" oil companies demonstrated resilience during periods of oil price fluctuations, with their stock prices recovering in the second half of 2025 [13][21] - The refining and chemical fiber sector showed strong stock performance, with key companies benefiting from a recovery in demand and policy support [18][22] - The coal chemical industry is expected to improve profitability due to a downward trend in coal prices and accelerated industrial upgrades [23] Summary by Sections Petrochemical Sector - The CITIC Petrochemical Index's performance was significantly impacted by oil price expectations, with a notable decline in the first half of 2025 due to OPEC+ production increases [8][11] - The "Big Three" oil companies (China National Petroleum, Sinopec, and CNOOC) achieved stable performance and cash flow despite challenges, with stock price changes of +16.3%, -9.8%, and +0.7% respectively [13][21] - The refining and chemical fiber sector saw strong stock price increases, with Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Dongfang Shenghong rising by 43.6%, 22.9%, and 30.6% respectively [18][19] Coal Chemical Sector - The coal market has seen a gradual easing of supply and demand, with average prices for coking coal, thermal coal, and anthracite at 1700 RMB/ton, 677 RMB/ton, and 931 RMB/ton respectively, reflecting changes of +11.1%, -11.3%, and -10.5% year-to-date [23] - The modern coal chemical industry is expected to develop positively, driven by the need for green transformation and deep clean utilization of coal resources [23] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the "Big Three" oil companies and their subsidiaries in the oil service sector, as well as leading companies in the refining-chemical fiber and coal chemical industries [3][21]

2025 年 12 月 28 日 公司研究 签署 4.24 亿美元哈萨克斯坦管道项目 EPC 合同，积极拓展海外市场 ——中油工程（600339.SH）公告点评 要点 事件：公司发布《关于子公司中标项目签署合同的公告》，公司子公司管道局工 程公司与中信建设有限责任公司组成的联合体，与哈萨克斯坦国家石油天然气化 工公司（KMG PetroChem）就哈萨克斯坦阿特劳州单走廊乙烷丙烷干线管道 EPC 项目签署 EPC 承包合同，合同金额 4.24 亿美元。 点评： 项目合同额 4.24 亿美元，有利于中亚地区市场拓展。哈萨克斯坦乙烷丙烷管道 项目为 EPC 总承包模式，主要工作范围包括建设管径 406.4mm、长度 209.4 公 里和管径 323.8mm、长度 208.1 公里的乙烷干线管道以及管径 219.1mm、长 度 5.5 公里的丙烷连接管线，项目合同额 4.24 亿美元。业主方 KMG PetroChem 是哈萨克斯坦国家石油天然气公司（KazMunayGas）全资子公司。合同签署体 现了哈国油对公司项目总承包建设能力的认可，有利于公司在中亚地区油气储运 工程业务市场的进一步巩固和拓展。 市场开拓有序 ...

2025 年 12 月 28 日 远期固态电池等提供锂新的动能需求。固态电池因其高能量密度和安全性被视为 下一代技术方向。据鑫椤资讯预测：2025年固态电池出货量约5.1Gwh，2030 年达到近80GWh，2025-2030年复合增速64%；2035年达456GWh，2025-2035 年复合增速53%。其中半固态电池2024年已经进入量产出货，全固态电池目前 主要在实验室验证阶段，预计2027年开始Gwh出货。国内较多企业开始积极布 局固态电池。根据雅保公告，全固态电池度电耗锂量有望达到近2kg/KWh,较现 有锂电体系翻倍，有望进一步拉动锂需求量。 投资建议：建议关注矿端增量较大的天华新能、盛新锂能、大中矿业、国城矿业、 藏格矿业、盐湖股份、雅化集团、赣锋锂业、天齐锂业等。 风险提示：下游需求不及预期；新国内外政策以及地缘政治不确定因素等。 行业研究 正极减产挺价有望助力锂价传导，储能需求预期提振改善供需格局 ——碳酸锂行业动态点评 要点 事件： 2025 年 12 月 25 日，湖南裕能、德方纳米、万润新能相继发布部分产线 减产检修公告：其中湖南裕能预计检修时间 1 个月，减少正极材料产品 1.5-3 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the positive outlook for strategic metals investment opportunities due to favorable supply-demand dynamics and resource nationalism [3][5][11]. Market Review: Strategic Metals Lead Nonferrous - From the beginning of the year until December 18, 2025, the nonferrous metals sector has risen by 78.53%, ranking second among all industries. Strategic metals have shown significant gains, with tungsten up 136.7%, cobalt up 69.1%, and rare earth permanent magnets up 56.7% [7]. Cobalt: Supply Tightening from Congo (DRC) - The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has implemented an export quota system for cobalt, leading to a projected supply-demand imbalance of -7.5/-3.3/-3.3 million tons for 2025-2027. The DRC's export ban and subsequent quota system are expected to keep cobalt prices elevated [3][14][16]. Rare Earths: Supply Expectations Tightening - The rare earth sector is experiencing tightening supply due to strategic export controls and a lack of public quota announcements. The price of light rare earths has seen fluctuations, with a peak price of 64.30 million yuan/ton for praseodymium and neodymium oxides in August 2025, followed by a decline [22][26][46]. Tungsten: Continued Supply-Demand Gap - The tungsten market is facing a supply squeeze due to mining restrictions and declining ore grades. Demand remains stable, supported by applications in military and photovoltaic sectors, suggesting that tungsten prices are likely to rise [3][5]. Tin: Supply Tightness and AI Demand Growth - The resumption of tin production in Myanmar is slow, with significant delays expected. However, the rapid development of AI is emerging as a new growth driver for tin demand [3][5]. Antimony: Export Recovery Expected - The suspension of export restrictions to the U.S. is anticipated to boost China's antimony exports, which currently account for 36% of its production. The lifting of these restrictions is expected to enhance export volumes significantly [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies benefiting from the tightening supply of strategic metals, including Huayou Cobalt, China Rare Earth, and Xiamen Tungsten. Specific recommendations include companies with significant cobalt production quotas in the DRC and those involved in rare earth processing [5][3].

Investment Rating - The report gives an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [4][6]. Core Insights - The Gansu liquor market is approaching a scale of nearly 100 billion yuan, with local brands holding a significant market share. The consumption upgrade is ongoing, with the mainstream price point for general liquor around 100 yuan and business banquets primarily at 150-200 yuan. Gansu's economic development, driven by investment attraction, supports this upgrade [1][21]. - Jinwei Liquor, located in the "Jiangnan of Longshan," has a long-standing brand history and has initiated a "second entrepreneurship" since 2018. The company aims for long-term growth through stable management and employee profit-sharing plans [2][49]. - The company is optimizing its product structure, with a significant increase in the revenue share of products priced above 100 yuan, expected to reach 71% by 2024. The company is also expanding its market presence in surrounding provinces while maintaining a strong foothold in Gansu [3][65]. Summary by Sections Gansu Liquor Market - The Gansu liquor market is estimated to be around 100 billion yuan, with local brands dominating the market. The consumption upgrade is evident as the mainstream price point is transitioning from around 100 yuan to 200 yuan [1][21]. - Local liquor brands account for over 70% of the market share, with Jinwei holding approximately 20% and continuing to increase its share [1][38]. Jinwei Liquor Overview - Jinwei Liquor has a rich history and is recognized as a leading brand in Gansu. The company has undergone significant changes since its establishment, including a successful listing in 2016 and a shift in control back to the original parent group in 2022 [2][49]. - The management team is experienced and stable, with a focus on long-term performance and employee engagement through profit-sharing mechanisms [2][57]. Product and Market Strategy - The company is focusing on upgrading its product structure, with a notable increase in high-end product offerings. The revenue from products priced above 100 yuan is projected to grow significantly [3][65]. - Jinwei is pursuing a national expansion strategy while deepening its presence in Gansu, particularly in the eastern and central regions where it has established strong brand recognition [3][65]. Financial Projections and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 30.2 billion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 11% since its listing. The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 3.76 billion, 4.09 billion, and 4.43 billion yuan, respectively [4][6]. - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 28, 25, and 23 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, indicating a favorable valuation compared to industry peers [4][6].

Profit Trends - In November 2025, industrial enterprise profits fell by 13.1% year-on-year, worsening from a decline of 5.5% in October 2025[4] - Cumulative profit growth for industrial enterprises from January to November 2025 was 0.1%, down from 1.9% for the first ten months[2] - Cumulative revenue growth for industrial enterprises from January to November 2025 was 1.6%, slightly down from 1.8% for the first ten months[2] Structural Analysis - Only the midstream equipment manufacturing sector showed stable profit growth, while upstream and downstream sectors experienced varying degrees of decline[3] - Cumulative profit growth for the mining sector from January to November 2025 was -27.2%, while manufacturing sector profit growth dropped to 5.0%[13] - The cumulative profit margin for the manufacturing sector was 4.62%, an increase of 0.08 percentage points compared to the previous year[13] Market Dynamics - The profit margin for industrial enterprises in November 2025 was 5.65%, a decrease of 0.73 percentage points year-on-year[5] - The cost per 100 yuan of revenue for large industrial enterprises increased by 0.18 yuan from January to November 2025[5] - The PPI (Producer Price Index) year-on-year growth rate in November 2025 was -2.2%, slightly down from -2.1% in October 2025[5] Future Outlook - Industrial profits are expected to remain under pressure in December 2025 due to high year-on-year comparisons[3] - The implementation of new policies in 2026 is anticipated to stimulate demand and support profit recovery for enterprises[29] - The midstream sector is projected to continue its positive profit trend, benefiting from "anti-involution" policies[3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From December 22 to December 26, 2025, the secondary - market prices of China's listed public REITs showed a wave - like recovery, ending a 5 - week continuous decline. The returns of REITs were mediocre compared to other mainstream large - category assets. The return rates from high to low were: gold > crude oil > A - shares > convertible bonds > REITs > US stocks > pure bonds. Among different types of REITs, the secondary - market prices of both property - type and franchise - type REITs increased, with the property - type REITs having a higher return rate. In terms of underlying asset types, affordable housing - type REITs had the largest increase this week. [1][11] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Secondary Market 3.1.1 Price Trends - **At the large - category asset level**: The secondary - market prices of China's listed public REITs recovered in a wave - like manner, ending a 5 - week continuous decline. The China Securities REITs (closing) and China Securities REITs total return index closed at 783.86 and 1014.8 respectively, with weekly returns of 1.39% and 1.56%. The weighted REITs index had a weekly return of 1.83%. [11] - **At the underlying asset level**: The secondary - market prices of property - type and franchise - type REITs both rose, with return rates of 2.22% and 1.19% respectively. Among underlying asset types, affordable housing - type REITs had the largest increase, and the top three in terms of return rates were affordable housing - type, warehousing and logistics - type, and park - type, with return rates of 3.63%, 2.39%, and 2.19% respectively. [16][18] - **At the single - REIT level**: This week, 67 REITs rose and 11 REITs fell. The top three in terms of increase were CICC Chongqing Liangjiang REIT, China Asset Management Co., Ltd. China Resources Youchao REIT, and Bosera Tianjin Economic - Technological Development Area Park REIT, with increases of 7.86%, 5.99%, and 5.94% respectively. The top three in terms of decrease were ICBC Inner Mongolia Energy Clean Energy REIT, Guotai Junan Jinan Energy Heating REIT, and Harvest China Power Construction Clean Energy REIT, with decreases of 5.04%, 4.39%, and 3.87% respectively. [21] 3.1.2 Trading Volume and Turnover Rate - **At the underlying asset level**: The trading volume of public REITs this week was 3.14 billion yuan. The average daily turnover rate of water conservancy facilities - type REITs during the period led others. The top three in terms of trading volume were transportation infrastructure - type, consumption infrastructure - type, and warehousing and logistics - type, with trading volumes of 703 million yuan, 569 million yuan, and 435 million yuan respectively. The top three in terms of average daily turnover rate during the period were water conservancy facilities - type, municipal facilities - type, and new - type infrastructure - type, with rates of 1.56%, 1.22%, and 1.00% respectively. [23] - **At the single - REIT level**: The trading volume and turnover rate of single REITs continued to show differentiation. The top three in terms of trading volume were CICC Hubei KeTou Optics Valley REIT, China Asset Management Co., Ltd. Anbo Warehousing REIT, and YinHua Shaoxing Raw Water Water Conservancy REIT, with trading volumes of 260 million shares, 240 million shares, and 230 million shares respectively. The top three in terms of trading amount were China Asset Management Co., Ltd. China Resources Commercial REIT, China Asset Management Co., Ltd. Anbo Warehousing REIT, and China Asset Management Co., Ltd. China Communications Construction REIT, with trading amounts of 195 million yuan, 131 million yuan, and 109 million yuan respectively. The top three in terms of turnover rate were China Asset Management Co., Ltd. Anbo Warehousing REIT, ICBC Inner Mongolia Energy Clean Energy REIT, and Jiashi Wumei Consumption REIT, with turnover rates of 19.63%, 12.60%, and 10.47% respectively. [24] 3.1.3 Main Force Net Inflow and Block Trading Situation - **Main force net inflow situation**: The total main force net inflow this week was 94.74 million yuan, and the market trading enthusiasm increased compared to last week. From the perspective of different underlying asset REITs, the top three in terms of main force net inflow during the week were consumption infrastructure - type, transportation infrastructure - type, and warehousing and logistics - type, with net inflows of 49.31 million yuan, 24.44 million yuan, and 20.91 million yuan respectively. From the perspective of single REITs, the top three in terms of main force net inflow during the week were China Asset Management Co., Ltd. China Resources Commercial REIT, China Asset Management Co., Ltd. Anbo Warehousing REIT, and Jiashi Wumei Consumption REIT, with net inflows of 44.39 million yuan, 22.27 million yuan, and 12.84 million yuan respectively. [27] - **Block trading situation**: The total block trading amount this week reached 264.42 million yuan, an increase compared to last week. There were block trading transactions on 5 trading days this week, with a total block trading amount of 264.42 million yuan. The block trading amount on Thursday (December 26, 2025) was the highest during the period, reaching 149.19 million yuan. From the perspective of single REITs, the top three in terms of block trading amount during the week were Southern Runze Technology Data Center REIT, China Merchants Fund Shekou Rental Housing REIT, and Southern Wanguo Data Center REIT, with trading amounts of 42.92 million yuan, 38.70 million yuan, and 27.13 million yuan respectively, and corresponding average discount/premium rates of 0.23%, 0.08%, and 0.20% respectively. [30] 3.2 Primary Market 3.2.1 Listed Projects - As of December 26, 2025, the number of China's public REITs products reached 78, with a total issuance scale of 20.1749 billion yuan. In terms of underlying asset types, the transportation infrastructure - type had the largest issuance scale, with a total issuance of 6.8771 billion yuan, followed by the park infrastructure - type REITs, with an issuance scale of 3.2933 billion yuan. No new REITs products were listed this week. [34][35] 3.2.2 Projects to be Listed - According to the project dynamic disclosures of the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, there were 20 REITs in the state of being to be listed, including 15 initial - offering REITs and 5 REITs to be expanded. This week, the project status of Huatai Three Gorges Clean Energy Closed - end Infrastructure Securities Investment Fund (initial offering) and Bosera Shandong Railway Investment Road and Bridge Closed - end Infrastructure Securities Investment Fund (initial offering) was updated to "accepted"; the project status of CICC Xiamen Torch Industrial Park Closed - end Infrastructure Securities Investment Fund (initial offering) was updated to "declared". [39][40]