Group 1 - The A-share market has shown signs of recovery this week, influenced by increased risk appetite and positive market sentiment, with the STAR 50 index rising by 6.5% and the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.2% [1][9][10] - The overall valuation of the Wind All A index is currently at a historically moderate to high level since 2010 [1][9][10] - Market style has shifted towards growth, with large-cap growth stocks increasing by 2.5% while small-cap value stocks decreased by 0.8% [1][12][19] Group 2 - Recent policy developments include the maintenance of the LPR rates at 3.0% for one year and 3.5% for five years, with no new special treatment sought by China in WTO negotiations [2][17][18] - The steel industry has received a growth stabilization plan from five departments, aiming for an average annual growth of around 4% from 2025 to 2026 [2][21] - Major tech events include the 2025 Yunqi Conference where Alibaba Cloud showcased innovations, and Huawei's launch of new electric vehicle models, indicating ongoing advancements in the TMT sector [2][21][22] Group 3 - The report suggests that the current market fluctuations align with historical patterns, with potential adjustments expected to narrow the market's upward movement to 6%-7% [3][23] - The logic supporting the current bull market remains intact, with expectations for continued stability in the economic fundamentals and a favorable environment for TMT sectors [3][24][33] - The TMT sector is anticipated to be a key focus for mid-term investments, driven by liquidity and recent positive developments in the industry [3][37][45]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the context of the slow - bull expectation in the equity market and the pattern where the demand in the convertible bond market is stronger than the supply and is difficult to change, convertible bonds remain relatively high - quality assets in the long run. Currently, the overall valuation level is relatively high, and more efforts need to be made in the structure [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market行情 - From September 22 to September 26, 2025 (5 trading days), the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose by +0.9% (last week's change was - 1.5%), turning positive this week; the CSI All - Share Index changed by +0.2% (last week's change was - 0.2%). The convertible bonds outperformed equities this week, for the first time in a month. Since the beginning of 2025, the CSI Convertible Bond Index has risen by +15.3%, and the CSI All - Share Index has risen by +21.3%. The convertible bond market has underperformed the equity market [1]. - By rating, high - rated bonds (rated AA + and above), medium - rated bonds (rated AA), and low - rated bonds (rated AA - and below) rose by +0.69%, +0.86%, and +0.51% respectively this week, with low - rated bonds having the smallest increase [1]. - By convertible bond scale, large - scale convertible bonds (bond balance greater than 5 billion yuan), medium - scale convertible bonds (balance between 500 million and 5 billion yuan), and small - scale convertible bonds (balance less than 500 million yuan) rose by +0.73%, +1.01%, and +0.01% respectively this week, with small - scale convertible bonds having the smallest increase [1]. - By conversion parity, ultra - high - parity bonds (conversion value greater than 130 yuan), high - parity bonds (conversion value between 110 and 130 yuan), medium - parity bonds (conversion value between 90 and 110 yuan), low - parity bonds (conversion value between 70 and 90 yuan), and ultra - low - parity bonds (conversion value less than 70 yuan) rose by +1.15%, +0.69%, +0.38%, +0.36%, and +0.36% respectively this week, with ultra - high - parity bonds having the largest increase [2]. Convertible Bond Price, Parity, and Conversion Premium Rate - As of September 26, 2025, there were 427 outstanding convertible bonds (432 at the end of last week), with a balance of 593.378 billion yuan (599.191 billion yuan at the end of last week). The average convertible bond price was 130.44 yuan (130.41 yuan last week), with a quantile of 98.4%; the average convertible bond parity was 104.27 yuan (105.51 yuan last week), with a quantile of 94.3%; the average conversion premium rate was 26.0% (25.2% last week), with a quantile of 49.6%. Among them, the conversion premium rate of medium - parity convertible bonds (conversion value between 90 and 110 yuan) was 28.8% (28.1% last week), higher than the median conversion premium rate of medium - parity convertible bonds since 2018 (20.3%) [3]. Convertible Bond Performance and Allocation Direction - The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose by +0.9% this week, and convertible bonds outperformed equities for the first time in a month. Since the beginning of 2025, the convertible bond market has underperformed the equity market. In the long run, convertible bonds are still relatively high - quality assets, but the current valuation is high, and more attention should be paid to the structure [4]. Convertible Bond Increase Situation - The top 15 convertible bonds in terms of increase this week include Jize Convertible Bond, Huicheng Convertible Bond, etc. For example, Jize Convertible Bond rose by 25.83%, and its underlying stock, Jize New Energy, rose by 18.22% [23].

Market Overview - In September, both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks continued to rise, with the ChiNext Index showing the largest increase of 12.0%, while the Shanghai Composite Index experienced a decline of 0.8% [1][8]. - The Hong Kong market also saw an upward trend, with the Hang Seng Technology Index rising by 12.4% and the Hang Seng Index increasing by 5.6% as of September 25, 2025 [1][11]. A-share Insights - The market is expected to continue its upward trend post-National Day, supported by stable economic fundamentals and reasonable market valuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index's PE-TTM at 16.5 times [2][14]. - The TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector is recommended as a key focus area, driven by liquidity and various catalysts such as advancements in AI and the commencement of the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle [2][16][17]. Hong Kong Stock Insights - The Hong Kong market is anticipated to continue its upward trajectory, supported by strong overall profitability and relatively low valuations, particularly in sectors like technology and new consumption [3][18]. - A "barbell" investment strategy is suggested, focusing on sectors benefiting from domestic policies in the context of US-China relations, as well as high-dividend, low-volatility stocks in telecommunications, utilities, and banking [3][18]. Stock Recommendations - For October 2025, the recommended A-share stocks include SMIC, Cambricon, Hikvision, Aolai Technology, Huayou Cobalt, Sany Heavy Industry, Haier Smart Home, China Merchants Bank, China Merchants Shekou, and Shanghai Lingang [3][20]. - The recommended Hong Kong stocks for October 2025 include Alibaba, Baidu, SMIC, Hua Hong Semiconductor, and Xindong Company [3][24].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for both A-shares and H-shares of the company [6]. Core Views - The company has signed a $359 million EPSCC contract with Total Energy for the Iraq Ratavi oil field, marking a significant collaboration with an international energy giant [1][2]. - The new contract represents 3.15% of the company's projected revenue for 2024, indicating a strong contribution to future earnings [2]. - The company is actively expanding its overseas market presence, with a 71.8% year-on-year increase in new contracts signed in the first half of 2025 [3]. - The overall oil service industry remains robust, providing the company with ongoing opportunities for growth [3]. Summary by Sections Contract and Project Details - The EPSCC contract has a duration of 41 months and involves the construction of five new production and injection well sites, upgrades to 11 existing well sites, and approximately 140 kilometers of pipeline [2]. - The project is expected to be mechanically completed by March 31, 2029 [2]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 909 million, 1.099 billion, and 1.315 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.05, 0.06, and 0.07 yuan per share [4]. - Revenue is projected to grow from 79.981 billion yuan in 2023 to 100.716 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 7.19% [5][11]. Market Outlook - The global upstream exploration and development expenditure is expected to remain high, with a forecast of around $600 billion in 2025, despite a slight year-on-year decline [3]. - The domestic market is also projected to maintain a high level of activity, with the "three major oil companies" continuing to invest in capacity expansion [3]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides a P/E ratio for A-shares decreasing from 66 in 2023 to 30 in 2027, indicating an improving valuation as earnings grow [5][14]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is expected to rise from 7.34% in 2023 to 10.98% in 2027, reflecting enhanced profitability [5][13].

2025 年 9 月 26 日 晨会速递 【有色】美国锑业获国防部大额锑锭合同，锑的战略价值进一步凸显——锑行业系列 报告之八(增持) 事件：美国锑业公司（USAC，AMEX:UAMY）2025 年 9 月 23 日发布公告称，获美国 国防后勤局五年期独家合同，最高 2.45 亿美元供应锑金属锭。美国锑业获国防部大 额锑锭合同，首批交付预计本周完成。合同直接反映了美国对锑供应链安全的担忧， 进一步凸显了锑的战略金属价值。今年锑价先扬后抑。今年春节后锑价变化主要受出 口政策及需求变化影响。出口松动，内盘锑价有望上涨。投资建议：出口有望陆续恢 复，中长期增量有限，看好国内锑价上行。风险提示：锑矿投产进度超预期的风险等。 公司研究 【家电】股息率超 7%彰显价值底蕴——格力电器（000651.SZ）动态跟踪报告(买入) 2025 年股息率已超过 7%，历史经验预示底部特征。按照 25 年盈利预测 330 亿元以 及 52%现金分红率假设，当前公司的预期股息率是 7.7%。2013-2024 年 12 年间， 公司预期股息率超过 7%的时间占比约 31%。基于公司强劲的股息保护能力、业绩确 定性及资产稀缺性，维持"买 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Gree Electric Appliances with a target price of 54.10 CNY [5][7]. Core Insights - The expected dividend yield for 2025 exceeds 7%, indicating strong value characteristics. The current expected dividend yield is 7.7% based on a profit forecast of 33 billion CNY and a 52% cash dividend rate [2][5]. - Historical data shows that the company has had a dividend yield above 7% for approximately 31% of the time from 2013 to 2024, typically corresponding to valuation bottoms [2]. - The company has seen a resilient online retail growth, with a 21% year-on-year increase in August, compared to a 2% growth in the industry [3]. - Gree Electric is accelerating its expansion in Southeast Asia, with a significant increase in its market share from 30% to 80% in the region [4]. Summary by Sections Dividend and Profitability - The projected dividend per share for 2025 is 2.86 CNY, with a cash dividend rate of 7.2% [15]. - The company’s net profit for 2025 is estimated at 33 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 2.63% [6]. Revenue and Growth - The expected revenue for 2025 is 194.89 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 2.55% [6]. - The company’s online retail price has increased, benefiting from a reduction in the proportion of low-priced air conditioning sales [3]. Market Position and Strategy - Gree Electric has shifted its operational model in Thailand to a localized subsidiary approach, enhancing market responsiveness [4]. - The company has successfully positioned itself against Japanese brands in Indonesia, indicating strong competitive capabilities [4]. Financial Metrics - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 5.90 CNY, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 7 [6][15]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 22.88% in 2025, reflecting strong profitability [14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [6]. Core Insights - The strategic value of antimony has been highlighted by the recent exclusive five-year contract awarded to U.S. Antimony Corporation by the U.S. Department of Defense, with a maximum supply value of $245 million for antimony metal ingots [1][2]. - The contract reflects U.S. concerns over supply chain security for antimony, which is recognized as a critical mineral by multiple countries, including the U.S., EU, and Japan [2]. - Antimony prices experienced significant fluctuations in 2025, with a peak price of 240,000 CNY/ton in April, followed by a decline to 176,000 CNY/ton by September [3][4]. Summary by Sections Antimony Market Dynamics - Antimony prices rose sharply from February to April 2025, increasing by 68% due to low inventory, difficult raw material replenishment, and positive market sentiment, driven by demand from the photovoltaic sector [3]. - A subsequent price correction occurred from April to September 2025, attributed to high prices leading to negative feedback on demand and government policies targeting smuggling, which significantly reduced antimony oxide exports [3][4]. Export Trends and Future Outlook - In 2023, China's antimony export volume accounted for 35% of its production, with a notable decline in exports during the first half of 2025 due to government crackdowns on smuggling [4]. - Recent statements from the Ministry of Commerce indicate a potential recovery in antimony exports, which could lead to an upward adjustment in domestic antimony prices [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a positive outlook for domestic antimony prices in the medium to long term, given the limited supply increase and the anticipated recovery of compliant antimony exports [4]. - Key companies to watch include Hunan Gold, Huaxi Nonferrous, and Huayu Mining, with projected earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios indicating potential investment opportunities [5].

2025 年 9 月 25 日 总量研究 稳定币：从数字美元到霸权上链 ——《大国 博弈》系列第八十八篇（2025-07-25） 特朗普为何加速推进 232 调查？——《大国 博弈》第八十七篇（2025-07-09） 关税大限将至，特朗普如何抉择？——《大 国博弈》系列第八十六篇（2025-07-03） 以斗争求合作，中方打到美方筹码底线—— 《大国博弈》系列第八十五篇（2025-05- 12） 美国政府停摆：可能性与市场影响 ——《大国博弈》系列第八十九篇 作者 分析师：赵格格 执业证书编号：S0930521010001 0755-23946159 zhaogege@ebscn.com 分析师：周欣平 执业证书编号：S0930525070005 010-57378026 zhouxinping@ebscn.com 相关研报 一、新财年将近，美国政府停摆可能性增加 2026 新财年将近，美国政府资金将于 2025 年 9 月 30 日后停止供给，若新的拨款 法案未获通过，美国政府将面临停摆风险。一般而言，美国联邦政府运转资金来自 年度预算拨款。国会两党通常应在 10 月 1 日新财年开始前通过新的年度拨款法 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on investment opportunities in the new materials sector and infrastructure real estate chain, with specific companies recommended for investment [3][21]. Core Insights - The report highlights the increasing proportion of accounts receivable and contract assets in the total assets of major state-owned construction enterprises, with some local state-owned enterprises exceeding 50% as of H1 2025 [3][10]. - The construction industry is facing significant operational pressure, with a negative growth trend in new contract signings since December 2023, leading to tightened cash flow for major construction state-owned enterprises [3][14]. - Historical context is provided regarding a previous debt clearance initiative from 2003 to 2007, which successfully resolved a significant portion of overdue payments in the construction sector [3][15]. Summary by Sections 1. Focus on Accounts Receivable Issues in State-Owned Construction Enterprises - The report emphasizes the need to address the accounts receivable issues faced by major construction state-owned enterprises, particularly in light of tight local government finances and deep adjustments in the real estate sector [3][10]. 2. Company Profit Forecasts and Valuations - Specific companies are highlighted for their potential in the new materials sector, including China Jushi, Guoen Co., Puyang Huachuang, Keda Manufacturing, and others, with investment ratings ranging from "Buy" to "Increase" [3][21]. 3. Weekly Market Review - The report provides insights into the weekly performance of the construction and building materials sectors, indicating fluctuations in stock prices and market trends [24][32]. 4. Aggregate Data Tracking - The report includes data on the cash flow of major construction state-owned enterprises, indicating overall tightness in cash flow despite some improvements in H1 2025 [3][14]. 5. High-Frequency Data Tracking - The report tracks high-frequency data related to the construction industry, providing timely insights into market dynamics and operational challenges faced by companies [3][24].

Investment Rating - The report suggests focusing on companies with "technical barriers + clinical landing" as the dual main lines for investment, recommending attention to medical scene integrators and leaders in invasive technology [4]. Core Insights - The brain-computer interface (BCI) industry is driven by both policy and technology, with a market expected to grow from $1.2 billion in 2019 to $2 billion in 2023, and projected to reach $7.63 billion by 2029, indicating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.5% from 2024 to 2029 [3][24]. - The medical sector is currently the most mature application area for BCI, with 31 clinical trials planned in 2024 covering various diseases, and the integration of medical and consumer applications is expected to create a dual growth curve [3][54]. - The domestic industry chain is becoming more self-sufficient, with significant advancements in invasive BCI technologies, and several regions are expected to form industrial clusters [4][27]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - BCI technology is a frontier field at the intersection of life sciences and information technology, creating interactive systems between the brain and external devices [14][16]. - The global BCI market is projected to grow significantly, with a forecasted market size of $7.63 billion by 2029, reflecting a CAGR of 17.5% from 2024 to 2029 [24][25]. - The industry is currently in a technology validation phase, with active investment activities, particularly in China, where over 200 financing events have occurred, totaling nearly $2 billion [27][29]. Policy Guidance - The Chinese government has issued several policies to support the BCI industry, aiming for technological breakthroughs by 2027 and the establishment of a robust industrial ecosystem by 2030 [42][43]. - The regulatory framework is evolving, with ongoing efforts to ensure safety, effectiveness, and ethical compliance in BCI technology [45][47]. Clinical Situation - Stroke is identified as the primary indication for BCI applications, with a significant patient population in need of rehabilitation solutions [54][59]. - The number of clinical trials related to BCI is increasing, with 31 trials registered in 2024, indicating a growing interest in the clinical potential of BCI technologies [65][66].