Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: PB-ROE-50 Combination - **Model Construction Idea**: The PB-ROE-50 combination is designed to capture excess returns by selecting stocks with favorable Price-to-Book (PB) and Return on Equity (ROE) characteristics within specific stock pools[24] - **Model Construction Process**: The model selects stocks based on PB and ROE metrics, focusing on stocks with high ROE and low PB ratios. The combination is rebalanced periodically to maintain its focus on these metrics. Detailed construction methodology is referenced in earlier reports[24] - **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrates significant excess returns in certain stock pools, indicating its effectiveness in capturing value and profitability factors[24] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. PB-ROE-50 Combination - **Excess Return (Weekly)**: - CSI 500: -0.62% - CSI 800: 1.31% - All Market: 1.36%[25] - **Excess Return (Year-to-Date)**: - CSI 500: 2.48% - CSI 800: 18.55% - All Market: 20.81%[25] - **Absolute Return (Weekly)**: - CSI 500: 3.39% - CSI 800: 3.85% - All Market: 4.18%[25] - **Absolute Return (Year-to-Date)**: - CSI 500: 33.50% - CSI 800: 43.89% - All Market: 51.01%[25] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Beta Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the sensitivity of a stock's returns to market returns, capturing systematic risk[20] - **Factor Construction Process**: Calculated as the covariance of a stock's returns with market returns divided by the variance of market returns $ \beta = \frac{\text{Cov}(R_i, R_m)}{\text{Var}(R_m)} $ where $R_i$ is the stock return and $R_m$ is the market return[20] - **Factor Evaluation**: Demonstrates positive returns in the current week, indicating its relevance in capturing market trends[20] 2. Factor Name: Scale Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Captures the size effect by focusing on the market capitalization of stocks[20] - **Factor Construction Process**: Stocks are ranked by market capitalization, and the factor is constructed by taking the difference in returns between small-cap and large-cap stocks[20] - **Factor Evaluation**: Positive returns this week suggest the dominance of large-cap stocks in the market[20] 3. Factor Name: Nonlinear Market Cap Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Captures nonlinear effects of market capitalization on stock returns[20] - **Factor Construction Process**: Incorporates higher-order terms of market capitalization in the regression model to account for nonlinear relationships[20] - **Factor Evaluation**: Positive returns this week highlight its effectiveness in capturing nonlinear size effects[20] 4. Factor Name: Leverage Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the impact of financial leverage on stock returns[20] - **Factor Construction Process**: Calculated as the ratio of total debt to equity, adjusted for industry and market effects[20] - **Factor Evaluation**: Negative returns this week suggest that high-leverage stocks underperformed[20] 5. Factor Name: Early Morning Return Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Captures the return patterns of stocks during early trading hours[12] - **Factor Construction Process**: Calculated as the return of a stock during the first trading hour of the day, adjusted for market and industry effects[12] - **Factor Evaluation**: Strong positive performance this week indicates its ability to capture intraday momentum[12] 6. Factor Name: Single-Quarter Net Profit YoY Growth Rate - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the year-over-year growth in net profit for a single quarter, reflecting profitability trends[12][14][18] - **Factor Construction Process**: $ \text{Growth Rate} = \frac{\text{Net Profit}_{t} - \text{Net Profit}_{t-1}}{\text{Net Profit}_{t-1}} $ where $t$ is the current quarter and $t-1$ is the same quarter in the previous year[12][14][18] - **Factor Evaluation**: Consistently positive performance across multiple stock pools highlights its robustness in capturing profitability[12][14][18] 7. Factor Name: 5-Day Reversal Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Captures short-term mean-reversion effects in stock prices[18] - **Factor Construction Process**: Calculated as the negative return of a stock over the past 5 trading days, adjusted for market and industry effects[18] - **Factor Evaluation**: Strong positive performance in the liquidity 1500 stock pool indicates its effectiveness in identifying short-term reversals[18] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Beta Factor - Weekly Return: 1.31%[20] 2. Scale Factor - Weekly Return: 0.62%[20] 3. Nonlinear Market Cap Factor - Weekly Return: 0.58%[20] 4. Leverage Factor - Weekly Return: -0.13%[20] 5. Early Morning Return Factor - Weekly Return: - CSI 300: 2.16% - CSI 500: 0.25% - Liquidity 1500: 1.22%[12][14][18] 6. Single-Quarter Net Profit YoY Growth Rate - Weekly Return: - CSI 300: 1.75% - CSI 500: 1.11% - Liquidity 1500: 1.58%[12][14][18] 7. 5-Day Reversal Factor - Weekly Return: - CSI 300: 0.77% - CSI 500: 1.04% - Liquidity 1500: 3.33%[12][14][18]

Market Overview - The U.S. real estate market remains in a "weak supply and demand" state despite the Federal Reserve's significant interest rate cuts of 175 basis points (bps) from September 2024 to August 2025, with new and existing home sales projected to decline in 2025 compared to 2024 levels[2][12]. - The mortgage interest rate remains high, averaging over 6%, significantly above the existing mortgage rate average of approximately 4.3%, limiting the effectiveness of the Fed's rate cuts on the housing market[3][45]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Demand is hindered by high home prices and affordability crises, leading to a decrease in home buying and mortgage demand, with 2025 new home sales expected to be below 2024 levels[2][12]. - The existing home market faces tight inventory due to the "lock-in effect," where homeowners with low fixed-rate mortgages are reluctant to sell, exacerbating supply shortages[21][45]. Future Projections - The anticipated "Trump housing reform" in 2026 aims to lower mortgage costs, activate supply markets, and further reduce interest rates, but significant legislative and judicial constraints may limit its effectiveness[4][50]. - A mortgage rate around 5% is estimated to be a critical threshold for initiating a recovery in the U.S. real estate cycle, with corresponding 10-year Treasury yields expected to be in the range of 3.2%-3.3%[5][50]. Risks and Challenges - The ongoing impact of tariffs on construction materials is expected to further increase housing costs, complicating supply issues and potentially reducing new housing starts by approximately 450,000 units over the next five years[39][40]. - The current housing supply shortage is estimated at around 2.8 million units, with projections indicating it may take up to 10 years to address this gap under current conditions[21][24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - From December 22 to December 26, 2025, the issuance volume of credit bonds increased month - on - month, and the credit spreads of various industries showed mixed trends [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Primary Market 3.1.1 Issuance Statistics - During the week from December 22 to December 26, 2025, 267 credit bonds were issued, with a total issuance scale of 427.702 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 15.42%. Among them, 117 industrial bonds were issued, with a scale of 219.258 billion yuan (a 34.26% month - on - month increase, accounting for 51.26% of the total); 110 urban investment bonds were issued, with a scale of 71.364 billion yuan (an 18.87% month - on - month decrease, accounting for 16.69% of the total); 40 financial bonds were issued, with a scale of 137.08 billion yuan (a 14.92% month - on - month increase, accounting for 32.05% of the total) [1][11] - The average issuance term of credit bonds this week was 2.74 years. The average issuance term of industrial bonds was 2.36 years, urban investment bonds was 3.25 years, and financial bonds was 2.35 years [1][14] - The average issuance coupon rate of credit bonds this week was 2.26%. The average issuance coupon rate of industrial bonds was 2.12%, urban investment bonds was 2.41%, and financial bonds was 2.23% [2][19] 3.1.2 Cancellation of Issuance Statistics - Five credit bonds were cancelled for issuance this week [2][23] 3.2 Secondary Market 3.2.1 Credit Spread Tracking - By industry, in the Shenwan primary industries, the largest upward movement of the AAA - rated industry credit spread was in the pharmaceutical and biological industry (up 5.1BP), and the largest downward movement was in the real estate industry (down 1.3BP); the largest upward movement of the AA + - rated industry credit spread was in the household appliances industry (up 6.4BP), and the largest downward movement was in the textile and clothing industry (down 9.8BP); the largest upward movement of the AA - rated industry credit spread was in the building materials industry (up 11BP), and the largest downward movement was in the commercial trade industry (down 1BP) [3] - By region for urban investment bonds, this week, the largest upward movement of the AAA - rated credit spread was in Gansu (up 8.7BP), and the largest downward movement was in Jilin (down 2.9BP); the largest upward movement of the AA + - rated credit spread was in Liaoning (up 6.7BP), and the largest downward movement was in Fujian (down 3.2BP); the largest upward movement of the AA - rated credit spread was in Jiangxi (up 4.5BP), and the largest downward movement was in Anhui (down 3.3BP) [3] 3.2.2 Trading Volume Statistics - The total trading volume of credit bonds was 1.782747 trillion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 28.47%. The top three in terms of trading volume were commercial bank bonds, corporate bonds, and medium - term notes. Specifically, the trading volume of commercial bank bonds was 630.894 billion yuan (a 38.88% month - on - month increase, accounting for 35.39% of the total); the trading volume of corporate bonds was 521.309 billion yuan (a 15.93% month - on - month increase, accounting for 29.24% of the total); the trading volume of medium - term notes was 347.636 billion yuan (a 40.63% month - on - month increase, accounting for 19.50% of the total) [4][28] 3.2.3 Actively Traded Bonds This Week - According to DM client data, the top 20 urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and financial bonds in terms of trading volume this week are provided for investors' reference [30]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The convertible bond market continued to rise this week, but the volatility of some individual bonds remains high, and the future trends may further diverge. It is recommended to comprehensively consider the convertible bond terms and the underlying stock situation for refined bond selection, and focus on new bond opportunities in industries catalyzed by policies and industries with high prosperity [4]. 3. Section Summaries Market Conditions - From December 22 to December 26, 2025, the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose by +1.64% (last week's increase was +0.48%), and the CSI All - Share Index changed by +2.78% (last week's change was -0.18%). Since 2025, the CSI Convertible Bond Index has risen by +18.98%, and the CSI All - Share Index has risen by +25.00% [1]. - By bond rating, high - rated bonds (AAA), medium - high - rated bonds (AA+), medium - rated bonds (AA), medium - low - rated bonds (AA -), and low - rated bonds (AA - and below) rose by +0.61%, +1.36%, +2.52%, +1.69%, and +1.98% respectively this week, with medium - rated bonds having the highest increase [1]. - By convertible bond size, large - scale convertible bonds (bond balance > 2 billion yuan), medium - large - scale convertible bonds (balance between 1.5 and 2 billion yuan), medium - scale convertible bonds (balance between 1 and 1.5 billion yuan), small - medium - scale convertible bonds (balance between 0.5 and 1 billion yuan), and small - scale convertible bonds (balance < 0.5 billion yuan) rose by +1.06%, +0.62%, +1.05%, +2.15%, and +2.84% respectively this week, with small - scale convertible bonds having the highest increase [2]. - By conversion parity, ultra - high - parity bonds (conversion value > 130 yuan), high - parity bonds (conversion value between 120 and 130 yuan), medium - high - parity bonds (conversion value between 110 and 120 yuan), medium - parity bonds (conversion value between 100 and 110 yuan), medium - low - parity bonds (conversion value between 90 and 100 yuan), low - parity bonds (conversion value between 80 and 90 yuan), and ultra - low - parity bonds (conversion value < 80 yuan) rose by +2.17%, +0.22%, +2.68%, - 0.67%, - 0.28%, 2.10%, and - 0.08% respectively this week, showing differentiated changes [2]. Convertible Bond Valuation As of December 26, 2025, there were 397 outstanding convertible bonds (405 at the end of last week), with a balance of 553.336 billion yuan (555.429 billion yuan at the end of last week). The average convertible bond price was 132.97 yuan (130.35 yuan at the end of last week), with a percentile of 98.75%; the average conversion parity was 102.08 yuan (100.65 yuan at the end of last week), with a percentile of 89.75%; the average conversion premium rate was 32.34% (32.57% at the end of last week), with a percentile of 40.30% [3]. Convertible Bond Performance and Allocation Direction The convertible bond market continued to rise this week. Some individual bonds still have large fluctuations, and future trends may further diverge. It is recommended to combine convertible bond terms and the situation of the underlying stocks for comprehensive judgment, conduct refined bond selection, and pay attention to new bond opportunities in industries catalyzed by policies and industries with high prosperity [4]. Convertible Bond Increase Situation The top 15 convertible bonds in terms of this week's increase are presented, including details such as the convertible bond abbreviation, underlying stock abbreviation, industry, latest closing price, convertible bond increase rate, and underlying stock increase rate. For example, Jiamei Convertible Bond had a convertible bond increase of 37.67% and an underlying stock increase of 61.29% [21].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the green methanol industry, but it highlights significant growth potential and investment opportunities in the sector. Core Insights - The global scale of green and low-carbon methanol projects is rapidly increasing, with a total planned capacity of 56.3 million tons by November 2025. GENA Solutions estimates that actual global green methanol capacity could reach between 6 to 13 million tons by 2030, with securing purchase agreements and financing for construction being the main challenges for project realization [5][14][25]. - Biomass methanol technology's gasification stage is critical, as its technical level and operational stability directly impact project feasibility and economics. Balancing costs and carbon utilization rates based on raw material characteristics is essential for project success. Electrolytic methanol technology is mature and synergizes well with renewable energy, but high costs of water electrolysis and complex system integration hinder large-scale promotion, making the reduction of electricity costs a priority [5][31][49]. - A complete core loop of resources, technology, and customers is essential for green methanol projects from planning to production. In the context of high costs for green methanol, finding end customers willing to pay a green premium and signing long-term purchase agreements to secure future cash flows is crucial for stable commercial operations [5][64]. Summary by Sections 1. Green Methanol Capacity Scale Steadily Increases - The production methods for methanol include natural gas (dominant globally), coal (high domestic share in China), and green methanol (biomass or electrolytic, lower carbon emissions but higher costs). The future trend focuses on "carbon neutrality," with renewable electricity and biomass routes accelerating towards mainstream production after cost reductions [8][19]. 2. Biomass Methanol: Gasification is Key, Cost Reduction and Efficiency Improvement are Directions - Gasification is the core process for biomass methanol production, involving four key steps: pretreatment, gasification, gas purification and adjustment, and methanol synthesis and purification. The efficiency of gasification directly affects project production efficiency and unit costs [31][74]. 3. Electrolytic Methanol: Cost Reduction is the Top Priority - Electrolytic methanol technology typically captures CO2 from biomass power plant emissions and combines it with hydrogen produced from renewable energy through electrolysis. While the technology is mature and synergizes well with renewable energy, high costs associated with hydrogen production and carbon capture present significant challenges for large-scale promotion [49][58]. 4. From Planning to Production: Resources, Technology, and Customers are Indispensable - The Northeast region of China is a key area for green methanol projects, supported by abundant biomass, wind, and water resources. Local government policies further accelerate industry clustering, creating a dual policy dividend of "national subsidies + local matching" [64][79]. 5. Investment Recommendations - Companies that have preemptively laid out green methanol manufacturing and have products certified (e.g., RED, ISCC) are highlighted as key investment targets, including JinFeng Technology, China Tianying, Jilin Electric Power, and others [5][64].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the machinery industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment returns over the next 6-12 months [1]. Core Insights - Domestic demand for excavators continues to grow, with November 2025 sales reaching 20,027 units, a year-on-year increase of 13.9%. Domestic sales accounted for 9,842 units, up 9.1% year-on-year. For the first 11 months of 2025, total excavator sales were 212,162 units, reflecting a 16.7% increase, with domestic sales at 108,187 units, up 18.6% [3][4]. - The report highlights a significant recovery in non-excavator machinery categories, with loader sales in November 2025 increasing by 29.4%, motor grader sales up 24.7%, and truck crane sales rising by 25.8% [3][4]. - The ongoing replacement cycle in the machinery sector is expected to drive sales growth, with an estimated compound annual growth rate of around 30% for replacement demand in the coming years [4]. - Positive fiscal policies are anticipated to stimulate infrastructure investment, ensuring sustained mid-term demand for machinery [5]. - Export performance remains strong, with excavator exports in November 2025 reaching 10,185 units, a year-on-year increase of 18.8%, and total export value for the first 11 months of 2025 at $53.76 billion, up 12.4% [6]. - The electric loader segment shows remarkable growth, with sales in November 2025 reaching 2,935 units, a 192.0% increase year-on-year, and an electricization rate of 25.7% [7]. - The commencement of the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project is expected to further boost machinery demand, with projected equipment needs estimated between 120 billion to 180 billion RMB [9]. Summary by Sections Domestic Sales Performance - November 2025 excavator sales reached 20,027 units, with domestic sales at 9,842 units, marking a 9.1% increase year-on-year [3][14]. - Loader sales in November increased by 32.1%, with domestic sales up 29.4% [14]. Export Performance - Excavator exports in November 2025 totaled 10,185 units, reflecting an 18.8% year-on-year increase [6][14]. - The total export value for machinery in November was $5.23 billion, a 16.6% increase [6]. Future Growth Drivers - The report emphasizes the importance of ongoing fiscal policies to support infrastructure investment, which is expected to drive machinery demand [5]. - The electricization trend in machinery is highlighted, with significant growth in electric loader sales and an increasing electricization rate [7]. Key Companies Recommended - The report recommends several leading manufacturers, including SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, Zoomlion, LiuGong, Shantui, and China Longgong, as well as component manufacturers like Hengli Hydraulic [10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the peak of a bull market is driven by multiple factors, including policy tightening, external risks, fundamental downturns, and market trading signals [1][15][16] - The report identifies three main categories of warning signals for a bull market peak: policy and external environment factors, fundamental factors, and market trading factors [1][15] - Historical examples illustrate that policy tightening and external risks have been significant warning signals in previous bull markets, such as the tightening of monetary policy and the impact of the subprime mortgage crisis from 2005 to 2007 [2][17][18] Group 2 - A downturn in fundamentals is highlighted as an important warning signal for a bull market peak, with indicators such as GDP growth rates and corporate profit growth showing consistent declines at the end of historical bull markets [2][35][40] - The report emphasizes that the decline in profitability of leading sectors serves as a key indicator for structural bull market peaks, as it reflects a shift in market sentiment and risk appetite [2][42][43] Group 3 - Trading signals are crucial for confirming a bull market peak, with high turnover rates and the number of stocks reaching new highs being significant indicators in a broad bull market [3][50] - The report notes that while absolute valuation levels may not effectively signal a peak, relative valuation metrics such as the five-year moving average of price-to-earnings ratios can indicate market overheating [3][62][63] Group 4 - The current A-share market does not show clear warning signals of a bull market peak, with supportive internal policies and improving fundamentals suggesting continued market performance [4][12] - The report indicates that while current market valuations are relatively high, turnover rates are at historical average levels, and the proportion of stocks reaching new highs is low, which does not signal an imminent peak [4][27][28]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the biomedical sector [4] Core Insights - The brain-computer interface (BCI) industry is at a critical stage of policy support, rapid technological iteration, and accelerated commercialization, with a global market approaching $10 billion [3][9] - The industry is driven by both policy and technology, with significant investments from major countries, including approximately $4.5 billion from the U.S. BRAIN Initiative and hundreds of billions in China [1][51] - The medical application of BCI technology is the most mature segment, focusing on neurorehabilitation, functional replacement, and disease treatment, with a dual growth curve emerging from medical and consumer applications [2][45] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - BCI is defined as a technology that creates a communication channel between the brain and external devices, enabling direct information exchange [16] - BCI can be categorized into invasive, semi-invasive, and non-invasive types, each with distinct applications in medical rehabilitation, consumer interaction, and military use [17][19] - The global BCI market is projected to grow from $1.2 billion in 2019 to approximately $7.63 billion by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) exceeding 13% [24] Policy Guidance - Major countries have launched BCI-related initiatives, with the U.S. and EU leading in funding and research efforts [52][53] - China's "Brain Plan" aims to enhance brain science and BCI technology, with significant funding expected in the coming years [54][57] Clinical Applications - The medical sector is the primary focus for BCI applications, with significant demand driven by conditions such as stroke and disabilities [45][48] - Clinical trials for BCI products are accelerating globally, with notable advancements in both invasive and non-invasive technologies [3][19] Industry Progress - The report highlights the competitive landscape, noting that while foreign companies like Neuralink and Synchron have a head start, domestic firms are making significant strides in key areas such as flexible electrodes and real-time language decoding [2][4][30] - The BCI industry is characterized by a complex supply chain, with upstream components like electrodes and chips, midstream product supply, and downstream applications across various sectors [30][33] Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on companies with strong technological barriers and clinical application capabilities, particularly in the medical sector, which is the most developed area for BCI commercialization [3][9] - Specific companies to watch include medical scene integrators and leaders in invasive/semi-invasive technologies, such as Xiangyu Medical, Weisi Medical, and Brain Tiger Technology [3][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Sinopec Engineering (2386.HK) [4][6] Core Insights - The acquisition of East China Pipeline Design Institute enhances the company's pipeline transportation business qualifications, expected to improve overall competitiveness [2] - The company has seen rapid growth in new contracts, with a total of 913 billion yuan signed in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 24.4% [3] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the modernization of China's industrial system and the high-quality development of the petrochemical industry, particularly in the Middle East market [3] Summary by Sections Acquisition and Business Expansion - The company announced the acquisition of 100% equity in East China Pipeline Design Institute for 191 million yuan, which will strengthen its integrated EPC service capabilities from design to procurement and construction [1][2] - The East China Pipeline Design Institute, established in 1993, has a projected net profit of 10.48 million yuan for 2024 and a net asset value of 168 million yuan as of August 31, 2025 [2] Market Growth and Contract Acquisition - The company has accelerated its market expansion, achieving a 24.4% year-on-year increase in new contracts, with domestic contracts growing by 16.3% and overseas contracts by 38.6% [3] - The total uncompleted contract amount reached 2,155 billion yuan, a 24.8% increase year-on-year, indicating strong future revenue potential [3] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts net profits for 2025-2027 to be 2.595 billion, 2.760 billion, and 2.902 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.59, 0.63, and 0.66 yuan per share [4] - The company is expected to maintain a low valuation with high dividend value, supported by its resource advantages from Sinopec Group [4]

Group 1: Banking Industry Insights - The banking sector is expected to face challenges in 2025 due to weak overall demand, leading to difficulties in loan volume growth and declining interest income. However, non-interest income and provisions are anticipated to enhance the stability of bank performance [2] - For 2026, as the beginning year of the "14th Five-Year Plan," banking operations are projected to progress steadily in a low-interest-rate environment, with estimated revenue growth for listed banks revised slightly upward to around 2% year-on-year and profit growth around 1% year-on-year, indicating strong fundamental resilience [2] - Investment recommendations include focusing on large banks with high dividend yields and strong performance from regional banks in Jiangsu [2] Group 2: Utility Sector Developments - In Guangdong, the comprehensive on-grid electricity price for 2026 is expected to remain stable year-on-year, with a transaction average price of 0.37214 yuan/kWh, reflecting a decrease of 5.03% year-on-year [3] - The expected capacity subsidy for 2026 is projected to be 0.042 yuan/kWh, leading to a comprehensive electricity price of 0.414 yuan/kWh, which is a year-on-year decrease of 0.78% (equivalent to 0.03 yuan/kWh) [3] - The electricity market in regions without continuous settlement and the relatively stable monthly long-term contract prices in Beijing and Shanghai are expected to maintain stability in 2026 [3] - Recommended stocks to watch include Jingneng Power and Sheneng Shares [3]