[Table_Reportdate] 2025年03月24日 超配 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 姚星辰 S0630523010001 yxc@longone.com.cn 联系人 食 品 wkh@longone.com.cn -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 2024-03 2024-05 2024-07 2024-09 2024-11 2025-01 2025-03 食品饮料(申万) 沪深300 [相关研究 table_product] 1.政策力度加码，板块情绪回暖—— 食 品 饮 料 行 业 周 报 （ 2025/3/10- 2025/3/16） 2.扩内需促消费，政策催化持续—— 食品饮料行业周报（ 2025/3/3- 2025/3/9） 3.底部反弹，预期回暖——食品饮料 行业周报（2024/2/24-2025/3/2） [Table_NewTitle 糖酒会符合预期 ] ，关注底部机会 ——食品饮料行业周报（2025/3/17-2025/3/23） [table_invest] ➢ 二级市场表现：上周食品饮料板块下跌4.03%，跑输沪深300指数 ...

Key Insights - Domestic manufacturers are continuously increasing their investment in AI, with Huawei launching the first foldable phone Pura X fully equipped with HarmonyOS 5, indicating a strong focus on AI integration in consumer electronics [7][9] - The photovoltaic silicon wafer and battery supply-demand situation remains tight, while the wind power installation scale continues to maintain a high level, reflecting robust growth in the renewable energy sector [12][15] Group 1: Electronic Industry - Xiaomi's total revenue for 2024 reached CNY 365.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 35.0%, with significant growth in its smartphone and AIoT businesses [8] - Tencent's 2024 revenue was CNY 660.26 billion, up 8% year-on-year, with a net profit increase of 68% to CNY 194.07 billion, highlighting strong capital expenditure in AI-related research [8] - China Mobile's capital expenditure for 2024 was CNY 164 billion, accounting for 18.4% of its revenue, with significant growth in its computing network capabilities [8] Group 2: Renewable Energy Sector - The photovoltaic sector is experiencing a tight supply of silicon wafers and battery cells, with prices expected to rise due to increased demand and low inventory levels [13] - Wind power installations are projected to remain high, with significant bidding activity for new projects, indicating a positive outlook for the wind energy market [15][16] - The domestic offshore wind power sector is expected to see continued growth, with multiple projects being initiated across various provinces [16] Group 3: Financial News - The Ministry of Finance reported a 1.6% year-on-year decline in public budget revenue for January-February 2025, with tax revenue down 3.9% [18] - The central bank announced a new method for conducting medium-term lending facility (MLF) operations to maintain liquidity in the banking system [18] - The eurozone's manufacturing PMI for March reached 48.7, exceeding expectations, indicating a potential recovery in the manufacturing sector [18]

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年03月21日 [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20250321 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 张季恺 S0630521110001 zjk@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 王洋 S0630513040002 wangyang@longone.com.cn 联系人： [table_main] 重点推荐 财经要闻 晨 会 纪 要 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 李嘉豪 lijiah@longone.com.cn [Table_Report] ➢ 1.海油工程（600583）：经营业绩获历史性突破，多领域拓展夯实发展后劲——公司简评 报告 ➢ 2.开门红已现，关注后续政策落实——国内观察：2025年1-2月经济数据 证券分析师：张季恺，执业证书编号：S0630521110001；证券分析师：谢建斌，执业 证书编号：S0630522020001；证券分析师：吴骏燕，执 ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年03月20日 [不降息，缓缩表，谨慎偏鸽 Table_NewTitle] ——海外观察：2025年3月美国FOMC会议 宏 观 简 评 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 胡少华 S0630516090002 hush@longone.com.cn 联系人 李嘉豪 lijiah@longone.com.cn 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 总 量 研 究 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] [table_main] 投资要点 47.0 47.5 48.0 48.5 49.0 49.5 50.0 50.5 51.0 51.5 52.0 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 2021-01 2021-02 2021-03 2021-04 2021-05 2021-06 2021-07 2021-08 2021-09 2021-10 2021-11 2021-12 2022-01 2022-02 2022- ...

Group 1: Forklift Industry Overview - Forklift sales in January-February 2025 showed steady growth, with total sales reaching 195,100 units, a year-on-year increase of 9.15%. Domestic sales were 121,200 units, up 6.48%, while overseas sales were 73,900 units, up 13.84% [6][7] - In February 2025, major forklift manufacturers sold 101,500 units, a significant year-on-year increase of 49.1%. Domestic sales were 66,200 units, up 59.4%, and export sales were 35,200 units, up 32.9% [6][7] - The strong performance in February is attributed to a low base from the previous year due to the Spring Festival occurring in February 2024. The overall demand for forklifts is closely linked to the manufacturing and logistics sectors, which are showing signs of recovery [7][9] Group 2: Key Players and Global Expansion - Anhui Heli has announced its first overseas joint venture factory in Thailand, aiming for an annual production of 10,000 forklifts and 10,000 lithium battery packs. This move is part of its strategy to enhance global presence and brand influence [8] - Hangcha Group plans to establish companies in the United States and the Middle East to strengthen its market position and enhance competitiveness in North America and the Middle East [8] - The domestic forklift leaders are accelerating their globalization efforts, establishing local production capacities and after-sales services abroad, which is expected to increase their market penetration [9] Group 3: Economic Data and Implications - The economic data for January-February 2025 indicates a positive trend, with retail sales increasing by 4.0% year-on-year and fixed asset investment rising by 4.1% [11][12] - High-tech industries are highlighted as a significant growth area, with high-tech manufacturing value-added and investment growing faster than the overall economy [11][12] - The manufacturing sector remains stable, with industrial production growth at 5.9%, supported by strong performance in equipment manufacturing [12][14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating that the stock is expected to outperform the market index by at least 15% over the next six months [8][10]. Core Views - The company achieved a historical breakthrough in operating performance, with significant growth in marine engineering revenue and overall net profit [8]. - The company continues to expand its business in multiple fields, including traditional oil and gas engineering and emerging sectors like LNG and offshore wind power [8]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2.01 yuan per share, totaling 889 million yuan, which reflects a commitment to sustainable profit distribution [8]. - Revenue for 2024 is projected to be 299.54 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 2.59% year-on-year, while net profit is expected to increase by 33.38% to 21.61 billion yuan [8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 299.54 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.59% year-on-year, while net profit reached 21.61 billion yuan, an increase of 33.38% [8]. - The company’s marine engineering revenue was 271.70 billion yuan, up 20.10% year-on-year, driven by high construction activity [8]. - The overall gross margin improved to 12.28%, an increase of 1.53 percentage points year-on-year [8]. Business Development - The company successfully delivered several significant projects, including Asia's first deep-water jacket and the first cylindrical offshore oil and gas processing plant [8]. - The company secured new contracts worth 302.44 billion yuan, with a backlog of approximately 400 billion yuan, providing strong support for future business volume [8]. Profit Distribution - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2.01 yuan per share, amounting to 889 million yuan, which is 41.12% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [8]. - Over the past three years, the total cash dividends amounted to 1.981 billion yuan, representing 113.39% of the average annual net profit [8]. Earnings Forecast - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 323.32 billion yuan, 343.38 billion yuan, and 361.70 billion yuan, respectively [8]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 23.05 billion yuan, 24.89 billion yuan, and 27.11 billion yuan, respectively [8]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are 0.52 yuan, 0.56 yuan, and 0.61 yuan, respectively [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating that the stock is expected to outperform the market index by at least 15% over the next six months [8][10]. Core Views - The company achieved a historical breakthrough in operating performance, with total revenue of 299.54 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 2.59% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 33.38% to 21.61 billion yuan [8][9]. - The marine engineering segment saw significant revenue growth, contributing 271.70 billion yuan, up 20.10% year-on-year, driven by high land construction workload and increased offshore installation activities [8][9]. - The company is expanding its traditional oil and gas engineering business while also increasing efforts in emerging sectors such as LNG and offshore wind power [8][9]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2.01 yuan per share, totaling 889 million yuan, which represents 41.12% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 [8][9]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 323.32 billion yuan, 343.38 billion yuan, and 361.70 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to be 23.05 billion yuan, 24.89 billion yuan, and 27.11 billion yuan [8][9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported total assets of 482.31 billion yuan and a net asset value of 262.67 billion yuan, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 41.38% [8][9]. - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 12.28%, an increase of 1.53 percentage points year-on-year [8][9]. Business Development - The company successfully delivered several significant projects, including Asia's first deep-water jacket "Hai Ji No. 2" and the first cylindrical offshore oil and gas processing plant "Hai Kui No. 1" [8][9]. - The total market contract value for 2024 reached 302.44 billion yuan, with a backlog of approximately 40 billion yuan, providing strong support for future business volume [8][9]. Dividend Policy - The company has maintained a consistent and relatively increasing profit distribution policy, with cumulative cash dividends over the past three years amounting to 1.98 billion yuan, representing 113.39% of the average annual net profit [8][9].

Investment Rating - The market index rating is bullish, expecting the CSI 300 index to rise by 20% or more in the next six months [8] Core Viewpoints - The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50%, aligning with market expectations. The monthly redemption cap for U.S. Treasury bonds was reduced from $25 billion to $5 billion, with a forecast of two rate cuts within the year. Economic growth expectations were significantly lowered, while inflation and unemployment rate forecasts were slightly increased. The Fed Chairman indicated increased economic uncertainty and a cautious, dovish stance [1][2][3] - The Fed's statement shifted from "risks are roughly balanced" to "economic outlook uncertainty has increased," reflecting concerns about rising unemployment due to layoffs and short-term inflation pressures from tariffs. However, the Fed is not in a hurry to adjust its policy stance, awaiting clearer market signals [1][2] - The plan to slow the balance sheet reduction supports liquidity, with the monthly redemption cap for U.S. Treasury bonds being reduced, while maintaining the cap for agency bonds and MBS. This indicates a gradual shift towards a Treasury-dominated asset structure [1][2] - The anticipated path for rate cuts is two small steps of 25 basis points in the second half of the year, with the Fed's dot plot showing median federal funds rates of 3.9%, 3.4%, and 3.1% for 2025-2027, unchanged from December 2024 [1][2] - Economic growth forecasts for 2025-2027 were significantly lowered to 1.7%, 1.8%, and 1.8%, while the unemployment rate forecast for 2025 was slightly raised to 4.4%. Core PCE inflation expectations for 2025 were increased to 2.8% [1][2] - Asset price volatility was notable, with a cautious and dovish tone from the FOMC meeting leading to a rise in U.S. stocks, a drop in U.S. Treasury yields, a decline in the dollar index, and an increase in gold prices [1][2]

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年03月20日 [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20250320 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 张季恺 S0630521110001 zjk@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 王洋 S0630513040002 wangyang@longone.com.cn 联系人： 李嘉豪 lijiah@longone.com.cn [table_main] 重点推荐 财经要闻 晨 会 纪 要 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 [Table_Report] ➢ 1.1-2月叉车销量稳健增长，国内龙头加速出海——机械设备行业简评 ➢ 2.开门红已现，关注后续政策落实——国内观察：2025年1-2月经济数据 ➢ 1.欧元区2月CPI终值同比升2.3% 低于预期 ➢ 2.欧盟将从4月1日起收紧钢铁进口配额 ➢ 3.日本央行维持利率不变 ➢ 4.美联储继续按兵不动，鲍威尔强调经济前景不确 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the CSI 300 index by 10% or more over the next six months [8]. Core Insights - The forklift sales in January and February 2025 showed a steady growth of 9.15% year-on-year, with domestic sales increasing by 6.48% and overseas sales by 13.84%. February alone saw a significant increase of 49.1% in sales compared to the previous year, driven by a low base effect from the previous year's Spring Festival [7]. - The demand for forklifts is closely linked to the manufacturing and logistics sectors, with the manufacturing PMI indicating a positive outlook as it remained above the threshold line since October 2024 [7]. - Anhui Heli's establishment of a joint venture in Thailand marks a significant step in its global expansion strategy, aiming for an annual production of 10,000 forklifts and lithium battery packs [7]. - Hangcha Group is also expanding internationally by setting up companies in the USA and the Middle East to enhance its market presence and competitiveness [7]. - The report suggests focusing on leading domestic forklift manufacturers with strong brand recognition and R&D capabilities, such as Anhui Heli and Hangcha Group, as they are well-positioned to benefit from the recovery in manufacturing and logistics demand [7]. Summary by Sections Forklift Sales Performance - In January-February 2025, total forklift sales reached 195,100 units, with domestic sales at 121,200 units and overseas sales at 73,900 units [7]. - February 2025 saw a monthly sales figure of 101,500 units, with domestic sales at 66,200 units and exports at 35,200 units [7]. Global Expansion Initiatives - Anhui Heli's joint venture in Thailand involves an investment of approximately 319.5 million yuan, holding a 75% stake in the new company [7]. - Hangcha Group's plans include establishing a smart logistics company in the USA and a company in Dubai to enhance its global marketing and operational capabilities [7]. Market Outlook - The report highlights the positive correlation between forklift demand and the manufacturing sector's health, with expectations of a rebound in domestic demand supported by favorable macroeconomic indicators [7].