| --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|----------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------| | | | | | | | | | | | 7 7 | | | | | | | | | | | | 利润端可期 收入端企稳, | | | | 联系人：付婷 联系方式：futing@longone.com.cn | 医药生物行业2024年三季报业绩综述 证券分析师：杜永宏 执业证书编号：S0630522040001 证券分析师：伍可心 执业证书编号：S0630522120001 2024年11月8日 | | | | | | | 3 ● 受多因素扰动前三季度业绩承压，全年业绩有望企稳向好。统计432家医药生物板块上市公司2024前三季度整体实现营业收 ...

行 业 研 机 械 设 备 究 [Table_Reportdate] 2024年11月08日 行 业 周 报 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 王敏君 S0630522040002 wmj@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] -36% -25% -14% -4% 7% 18% 28% 23-11 24-02 24-05 24-08 申万行业指数:机械设备(0764) 沪深300 [相关研究 table_product] 1.工具行业跟踪：下游库存改善，创 新+全球化运营助力成长——机械设 备行业深度报告 设备寻找外延增长点 [table_invest] 超配 [Table_NewTitle 轨交招标]、工程机械数据向好，自动化 ——机械设备行业周报（20241104-202401110） [table_main] 投资要点： ➢ 轨交设备：旅客出行活跃，国铁集团发布新一批动车组招标。据国铁集团，2023年，我国 铁路旅客发送量完成36.8亿人次，比上年增长128.8%。今年1至9月，全国铁路发送旅客 33.3亿人次，同比增长13.5%。2024年11月5日，国铁集团公 ...

晨 会 纪 要 [Table_Report] [Table_Reportdate] 2024年11月08日 [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20241108 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 张季恺S0630521110001 zjk@email.com.cn 联系人： 陈伟业 cwy@longone.com.cn [table_main] 重点推荐 ➢ 1.餐供全产业链拆解，挖掘成长企业——餐饮供应链研究框架专题报告 ➢ 2.特朗普二次入驻白宫的影响——海外观察：美国大选点评 ➢ 3.卓胜微（300782）：L-PAMiD迭代完成，折旧短期拖累不改长期向好——公司简评报告 ➢ 4.如何理解出口增速的超预期回升——国内观察：2024年10月进出口数据 财经要闻 ➢ 1.央行召开外资金融机构座谈会。 ➢ 2.10月外汇储备3.26万亿美元，环比下降1.67%。 ➢ 3.美联储如期降息25个基点。 ➢ 4.英国央行降息25个基点。 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 正文目录 1. 重点推荐. 1.1. 餐供全产业链拆解， ...

总 量 研 究 [Table_Reportdate] 2024年11月07日 | --- | --- | --- | |-------|---------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

总 量 研 究 [Table_Reportdate] 2024年11月08日 宏 观 简 评 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 胡少华 S0630516090002 hush@longone.com.cn [短期延续降息路径，长期隐含通胀担忧 Table_NewTitle] ——海外观察：2024年11月美国FOMC会议 [table_main] 投资要点 ➢ 事件：当地时间11月7日，美联储降息25bps，下调联邦基金利率的目标区间至4.50%- 4.75%。 ➢ 核心观点：美联储11月降息25bps，基本符合市场预期。由于特朗普宣誓就职至其主张政 策的落实仍有一定时间，短期来看美联储可能延续此前的降息节奏，但明年下半年或存较 大不确定性。对国内来说，货币政策宽松依然在窗口期。 ➢ 会议措辞删除通胀关键内容，发布会上进行安抚。本次会议声明虽然总体上相较于9月变 化不大，删除了实现通胀目标中的"进一步"进展，"对通胀率可持续迈向2%变得更有信 心"，但考虑到以上措辞为9月会议新增内容，或隐含了美联储对于通胀前 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company has completed the iteration of L-PAMiD, and while short-term depreciation impacts performance, the long-term outlook remains positive [2][10] - The company reported a revenue of 3.367 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 9.55%, but a net profit decline of 48.05% [8][10] - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 37.14%, down 4.26 percentage points quarter-on-quarter and 9.43 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to depreciation and product mix changes [9][10] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.083 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.13% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 1.13% [8] - The net profit for Q3 2024 was 71 million yuan, down 84.29% year-on-year and 54.63% quarter-on-quarter [8] - The company’s gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 40.52%, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 7.40 percentage points [8] Production and R&D - The company has significantly increased R&D investment, with expenses reaching 753 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 83.50% [11] - The L-PAMiD product has been successfully validated by several brand clients, marking a significant milestone in the domestic supply chain [11] - The company’s 6-inch and 12-inch filter production lines have achieved a high level of self-sufficiency, with products being successfully integrated into various brand clients [12] Future Outlook - The company expects to see improved margins as production scales up and cost efficiencies are realized [9][10] - Revenue forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are adjusted to 4.667 billion yuan, 5.242 billion yuan, and 5.992 billion yuan respectively, with net profits expected to be 570 million yuan, 790 million yuan, and 1.204 billion yuan [10][13]

总 量 研 究 [Table_Reportdate] 2024年11月07日 宏 观 简 评 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 胡少华 S0630516090002 hush@longone.com.cn [特朗普二次入驻白宫的影响 Table_NewTitle] ——海外观察：美国大选点评 [table_main] 投资要点 ➢ 事件：当地时间11月6日凌晨，美国共和党总统候选人特朗普发表讲话，宣布在2024年总 统选举中获胜。北京时间6日晚间，央视新闻报道，根据多家美媒最新公布的初步测算， 特朗普目前已获得277张选举人票，超过胜选所需的270张票。 ➢ 核心观点：特朗普二次入驻白宫，以及共和党较大概率拿下参众两院，将使其任期内政策 推行的难度降低。关税、移民、减税是核心，而最先落地的可能就是移民政策。美国经济 或受减税影响，维持韧性，但通胀以及财政也将迎来压力，不过还需要关注特朗普政策的 兑现程度。对于中国来说，外需受到影响的情况下，进一步扩大内需的政策重要性可能明 显提升。对于A股来说，中长期来看，国 ...

Industry Overview - The catering supply chain is essentially food industrialization, driven by the increasing demand for cost reduction and efficiency improvement in the catering industry, as well as the rising chainization rate The market size of the catering supply chain in 2023 is estimated to be approximately 2 43 trillion yuan, with significant growth potential [1] - The B-end frozen rice and noodle products and hotpot ingredient sectors are more promising The frozen food market in China is mainly divided into rice and noodle products, hotpot ingredients, and prepared dishes Among them, C-end rice and noodle products are in a mature stage, while B-end rice and noodle products and hotpot ingredients are in a growth phase with room for increased concentration [1] - The small and medium-sized B-end and group meal markets have vast potential and are the most promising for development The downstream channels of the catering supply chain can be divided into large B-end, small and medium-sized B-end, group meals, and takeout Among them, the small and medium-sized B-end market is the foundation of the catering industry, with numerous enterprises and significant growth potential [1] Market Dynamics - The catering supply chain market is closely related to the development of the catering industry With the increase in per capita disposable income, urbanization, and the trend of smaller households, the dining-out rate continues to rise, driving the rapid development of the catering industry In 2023, the catering market size reached 5 29 trillion yuan, with a CAGR of 8 82% from 2010 to 2023 [6] - The demand for cost reduction and efficiency improvement in the B-end catering sector, along with the convenience demand in the C-end, has opened up space for ingredient standardization The high costs of labor, rent, and raw materials have forced catering companies to optimize their supply chains and promote ingredient standardization [10] - The chainization rate in the catering industry is rising, leading to an increasing demand for standardized ingredients In 2023, the chainization rate in China reached 21%, with significant room for growth compared to mature markets like the US and Japan, where the chainization rate exceeds 55% [12] Supply Chain and Logistics - The improvement of the cold chain logistics industry has expanded the sales radius of semi-finished ingredients With the development of freezing technology and cold chain logistics, the storage time of semi-finished ingredients has been significantly extended, and logistics costs have been reduced From 2019 to 2023, the CAGR of the cold chain logistics market size, refrigerated vehicle ownership, and cold storage capacity reached 11 12%, 19 10%, and 10 85%, respectively [16] Frozen Food Market - The frozen food market benefits from the trend of ingredient standardization, with significant growth potential In 2023, the frozen food market size reached 183 54 billion yuan, with a CAGR of 9 75% from 2019 to 2023 Rice and noodle products account for the largest share at 53%, followed by hotpot ingredients at 33% [19] - The hotpot ingredient sector has significant room for concentration improvement and maintains a high-end trend In 2023, the hotpot ingredient market size reached 65 7 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 12 20% The concentration of the hotpot ingredient market is relatively low, with a CR3 of 16% in 2021 [26] - The prepared dish sector is growing rapidly but faces challenges in achieving nationwide popularity due to regional dietary habits and taste differences In 2022, the prepared dish market size reached 419 6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 21 31% [27] Company Analysis - Anjoy Food is a leading company in the frozen food industry, with a strong presence in hotpot ingredients and rice and noodle products From 2019 to 2023, the company's revenue and net profit CAGR reached 27 79% and 41 09%, respectively In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 14 048 billion yuan, with hotpot ingredients and prepared dishes accounting for 18 12% and 27 96% of the revenue, respectively [41] - Qianwei Central Kitchen focuses on the B-end frozen rice and noodle market, with a strong product development capability From 2019 to 2023, the company's revenue and net profit CAGR reached 20 92% and 16 00%, respectively In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 1 901 billion yuan, with fried, baked, and steamed products accounting for 45 78%, 18 69%, and 19 60% of the revenue, respectively [47] Investment Recommendations - The rapid increase in the chainization rate of the catering industry brings significant growth potential to the catering supply chain The midstream food manufacturing companies benefit from the trend of catering industrialization, with increasing concentration as the main theme in the future Companies with strong competitiveness in specific segments are recommended for investment [55]

晨 会 纪 要 [Table_Report] [Table_Reportdate] 2024年11月06日 [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20241106 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 张季恺S0630521110001 zjk@email.com.cn 联系人： 陈伟业 cwy@longone.com.cn [table_main] 重点推荐 ➢ 1.中船特气（688146）：价格下调或逐步企稳，龙头地位或长期稳固——公司简评报告 ➢ 2.美畅股份（300861）：新技术增强产品力，期待盈利触底回升——公司简评报告 ➢ 3.邮储银行（601658）：负债成本优势保持，储蓄代理降费效果体现——公司简评报告 ➢ 4.百普赛斯（301080）：收入端增长良好，研发投入加大——公司简评报告 ➢ 5.宏微科技（688711）：2024Q3业绩企稳，期待新品放量带动估值修复——公司简评报告 财经要闻 ➢ 1.国务院总理李强出席第七届中国国际进口博览会开幕式并发表主旨演讲。 ➢ 2.截至2023年底全国国有企业资产总额371.9万亿元。 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.C ...

总 量 研 究 [Table_Report] [Table_Reportdate] 2024年11月06日 资 产 配 置 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 谢建斌 S0630522020001 xjb@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 胡少华 S0630516090002 hush@longone.com.cn [分化中寻找确定性 Table_NewTitle] ——资产配置与比较月报（2024年11月） [table_main] 投资要点 ➢ 政策积极落实，预期有所好转。回顾10月以来，一揽子政策已快速落地，10月21日LPR下 调25bps，政策利率、存款利率、贷款利率均已经完成下调；支持权益市场的互换便利以 及回购增持再贷款均已开始使用；10月底前下达两个1000亿元项目清单和投资计划；增加 100万套棚改以及4万亿元白名单信贷规模。随着政策的落实，高频数据上地产销售降幅已 有明显收窄，也反映出预期有所好转。 ➢ 关注国内基本面的验证以及地方化债规模。对于国内来说，一是基本面进入验证期，10月 ...