Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within the next six months [10][16]. Core Views - The company experienced a decline in revenue and net profit in the first half of 2025, with revenue at 1.12 billion yuan, down 21.86% year-on-year, and net profit at 0.87 billion yuan, down 28.94% year-on-year [4][5]. - The sales team is undergoing adjustments and reforming the assessment mechanism, leading to internal operational challenges [5]. - The company is focusing on channel construction while maintaining product category integrity and health-oriented initiatives, aiming for positive revenue growth in the second half of the year [7][9]. Company Overview - Latest closing price: 13.32 yuan - Total shares: 4.51 billion, circulating shares: 3.00 billion - Total market value: 60 billion yuan, circulating market value: 40 billion yuan - 52-week high/low: 15.65/10.19 yuan - Debt-to-asset ratio: 34.0% - Price-to-earnings ratio: 20.34 [3]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, revenue from various product categories showed mixed results: fish products increased by 7.61% to 7.57 billion yuan, while quail egg products decreased by 24% to 1.96 billion yuan [5]. - The company's gross margin and net profit margin for H1 2025 were 29.45% and 9.96%, respectively, showing a decline compared to the previous year [6]. - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027, now projecting revenues of 24.37 billion, 27.02 billion, and 30.91 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 2.44 billion, 3.12 billion, and 3.75 billion yuan [10][12]. Strategic Focus - The company is prioritizing channel development and responding efficiently to channel demands, with a strategy to enhance the coverage of terminal outlets through refined channel operations [7]. - New product launches, particularly in the konjac category, have received positive feedback, indicating potential for growth in this segment [5].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2]. Core Views - Precious metals are expected to break upward, with gold showing potential for a breakout following the release of PCE data, leading to a 2.89% increase in COMEX gold and a 4.81% increase in silver for the week. The long-term trend of de-dollarization and inflows into ETFs under the backdrop of interest rate cuts support a positive outlook for precious metals [5]. - Copper prices continue to oscillate at high levels, with a 0.99% increase this week. Supply disruptions from China's waste copper policy have led to a significant reduction in recycled copper rod production, estimated to decrease by at least 30% in August. The end of the consumption off-season is approaching, and pre-stocking in September and October may support copper prices [6]. - Aluminum prices are also expected to rise, with a 0.53% increase this week. The focus remains on inventory reduction during the peak consumption season, and the impact of U.S. aluminum tariffs is considered limited [6]. - Heavy rare earth processing fees have surged, indicating improved performance for related companies. The processing fee for medium and heavy rare earths has increased significantly due to regulatory changes, which may pose risks for small private enterprises [7]. - Cobalt prices have stabilized and are expected to rise, with attention on policy changes in the Democratic Republic of the Congo in September. Supply constraints and a lack of demand recovery in the domestic market are noted [8]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the industry is 6413.26, with a weekly high of 6413.26 and a low of 3700.9 [2]. Price Movements - Basic metals: LME copper increased by 0.99%, aluminum decreased by 0.11%, zinc increased by 0.30%, lead increased by 0.25%, and tin increased by 3.26%. Precious metals: COMEX gold increased by 2.89%, silver increased by 4.81%, NYMEX palladium decreased by 0.92%, and platinum increased by 0.47% [23]. Inventory Changes - Global visible inventory changes include an increase of 6550 tons in copper, 3810 tons in aluminum, a decrease of 6409 tons in zinc, and a decrease of 13621 tons in lead [35].

证券研究报告：食品饮料 | 公司点评报告 发布时间：2025-09-01 股票投资评级 买入|维持 个股表现 -8% 0% 8% 16% 24% 32% 40% 48% 56% 64% 2024-08 2024-11 2025-01 2025-04 2025-06 2025-08 千味央厨 食品饮料 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 公司基本情况 | 最新收盘价（元） | 29.66 | | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本（亿股）0.97 / 0.97 | | | 总市值/流通市值（亿元）29 / 29 | | | 52 周内最高/最低价 | 39.36 / 21.42 | | 资产负债率(%) | 21.5% | | 市盈率 | 34.09 | | 第一大股东 | 共青城城之集企业管理 | | 咨询有限公司 | | 研究所 分析师:蔡雪昱 SAC 登记编号:S1340522070001 Email:caixueyu@cnpsec.com 分析师:杨逸文 SAC 登记编号:S1340522120002 Email:yangyiwen@cnpsec.com 千味央厨(001215) 新零售蓬勃发展， ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with an expected relative increase of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within six months [2][13]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.583 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 33.74%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 62 million yuan, up 44.87% year-on-year [4]. - The company continues to experience high growth in strategic industries, particularly in the oil and gas and power generation sectors, with significant contributions from e-commerce [5]. - The gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 22.68%, a decrease of 5.63 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the rapid growth of lower-margin strategic industry clients [6]. Company Overview - The latest closing price is 14.63 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 6 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of 5.9 billion yuan [3]. - The company has a total share capital of 410 million shares, with 407 million shares in circulation. The price-to-earnings ratio stands at 26.60 [3]. Financial Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025 and 2026 are 4.456 billion yuan and 5.404 billion yuan, respectively, indicating year-on-year growth rates of 23.6% and 21.3% [9][12]. - The forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 and 2026 is 261.47 million yuan and 303.57 million yuan, with growth rates of 17.3% and 16.1% [9][12].

Quantitative Models and Construction 1. Model Name: barra1d - **Model Construction Idea**: This model is part of the GRU factor family and is designed to capture short-term market dynamics through daily data inputs[4][6][8] - **Model Construction Process**: The barra1d model uses daily market data to calculate factor exposures and returns. It applies industry-neutralization and standardization processes to ensure comparability across stocks. The model is rebalanced monthly, selecting the top 10% of stocks with the highest factor scores for long positions and the bottom 10% for short positions, with equal weighting[17][28][29] - **Model Evaluation**: The barra1d model demonstrated strong performance in multiple stock pools, showing resilience in volatile market conditions[4][6][8] 2. Model Name: barra5d - **Model Construction Idea**: This model extends the barra1d framework to a five-day horizon, aiming to capture slightly longer-term market trends[4][6][8] - **Model Construction Process**: Similar to barra1d, the barra5d model uses five-day aggregated data for factor calculation. It follows the same industry-neutralization, standardization, and rebalancing processes as barra1d[17][28][29] - **Model Evaluation**: The barra5d model experienced significant drawdowns in recent periods, indicating sensitivity to market reversals[4][6][8] 3. Model Name: open1d - **Model Construction Idea**: This model focuses on open price data to identify short-term trading opportunities[4][6][8] - **Model Construction Process**: The open1d model calculates factor exposures based on daily opening prices. It applies the same industry-neutralization and rebalancing methodology as other GRU models[17][28][29] - **Model Evaluation**: The open1d model showed moderate performance, with some drawdowns in recent periods[4][6][8] 4. Model Name: close1d - **Model Construction Idea**: This model emphasizes closing price data to capture end-of-day market sentiment[4][6][8] - **Model Construction Process**: The close1d model uses daily closing prices for factor calculation. It follows the same construction and rebalancing methodology as other GRU models[17][28][29] - **Model Evaluation**: The close1d model demonstrated stable performance, with positive returns in certain stock pools[4][6][8] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. barra1d Model - Weekly Excess Return: +0.57%[29][30] - Monthly Excess Return: +0.75%[29][30] - Year-to-Date Excess Return: +4.38%[29][30] 2. barra5d Model - Weekly Excess Return: -2.17%[29][30] - Monthly Excess Return: -3.76%[29][30] - Year-to-Date Excess Return: +4.13%[29][30] 3. open1d Model - Weekly Excess Return: -0.97%[29][30] - Monthly Excess Return: -2.85%[29][30] - Year-to-Date Excess Return: +4.20%[29][30] 4. close1d Model - Weekly Excess Return: -1.68%[29][30] - Monthly Excess Return: -4.50%[29][30] - Year-to-Date Excess Return: +1.90%[29][30] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction 1. Factor Name: Beta - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures historical market sensitivity of a stock[15] - **Factor Construction Process**: Calculated as the regression coefficient of a stock's returns against market returns over a specified period[15] 2. Factor Name: Size - **Factor Construction Idea**: Captures the size effect, where smaller firms tend to outperform larger ones[15] - **Factor Construction Process**: Defined as the natural logarithm of total market capitalization[15] 3. Factor Name: Momentum - **Factor Construction Idea**: Identifies stocks with strong recent performance[15] - **Factor Construction Process**: Combines historical excess return mean, volatility, and cumulative deviation into a weighted formula: $ Momentum = 0.74 * \text{Volatility} + 0.16 * \text{Cumulative Deviation} + 0.10 * \text{Residual Volatility} $[15] 4. Factor Name: Volatility - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the risk or variability in stock returns[15] - **Factor Construction Process**: Weighted combination of historical residual volatility and other measures[15] 5. Factor Name: Valuation - **Factor Construction Idea**: Captures the value effect, where undervalued stocks tend to outperform[15] - **Factor Construction Process**: Defined as the inverse of the price-to-book ratio[15] 6. Factor Name: Liquidity - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the ease of trading a stock[15] - **Factor Construction Process**: Weighted combination of turnover rates over monthly, quarterly, and yearly horizons: $ Liquidity = 0.35 * \text{Monthly Turnover} + 0.35 * \text{Quarterly Turnover} + 0.30 * \text{Yearly Turnover} $[15] 7. Factor Name: Profitability - **Factor Construction Idea**: Identifies stocks with strong earnings performance[15] - **Factor Construction Process**: Weighted combination of various profitability metrics, including analyst forecasts and financial ratios[15] 8. Factor Name: Growth - **Factor Construction Idea**: Captures the growth potential of a stock[15] - **Factor Construction Process**: Weighted combination of earnings and revenue growth rates[15] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Beta Factor - Weekly Return: +0.14%[21] - Monthly Return: +1.65%[21] - Year-to-Date Return: +5.29%[21] 2. Size Factor - Weekly Return: +0.36%[21] - Monthly Return: +1.00%[21] - Year-to-Date Return: +6.37%[21] 3. Momentum Factor - Weekly Return: +2.21%[24] - Monthly Return: +8.80%[24] - Year-to-Date Return: +23.30%[24] 4. Volatility Factor - Weekly Return: +2.82%[24] - Monthly Return: +12.29%[24] - Year-to-Date Return: +25.25%[24] 5. Valuation Factor - Weekly Return: +1.47%[21] - Monthly Return: +2.30%[21] - Year-to-Date Return: -2.26%[21] 6. Liquidity Factor - Weekly Return: +1.80%[21] - Monthly Return: +5.91%[21] - Year-to-Date Return: +19.70%[21] 7. Profitability Factor - Weekly Return: +4.57%[21] - Monthly Return: +7.53%[21] - Year-to-Date Return: +27.56%[21] 8. Growth Factor - Weekly Return: +2.76%[24] - Monthly Return: +6.51%[24] - Year-to-Date Return: +14.51%[24]

Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the computer industry is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that Alibaba's capital expenditure (Capex) has exceeded expectations, focusing on AI chip development, with a 26% year-on-year growth in Alibaba Cloud revenue, reaching 333.98 billion yuan [4][5] - Alibaba's overall revenue for Q1 FY26 was 247.65 billion yuan, a 2% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 42.38 billion yuan, marking a 76% increase, surpassing market expectations [4][5] - The report emphasizes the establishment of a global AI chip supply backup plan to ensure the timely advancement of infrastructure investments [6] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the computer industry is 5755.35, with a weekly high of 5841.52 and a low of 2844.68 [1] Recent Performance - The computer industry has shown a relative performance trend against the CSI 300 index, with fluctuations observed from August 2024 to August 2025 [3] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the computing power supply chain, highlighting various companies across different segments, including Huawei chain, Muxi chain, Haiguang chain, and others [7][8]

证券研究报告 石化行业周报：本周石化板块整体表现一般， 持续关注反内卷 行业投资评级：强大于市|维持 中邮证券研究所石化团队 分析师:张津圣 SAC 登记编号:S1340524040005 1 1 发布时间：2025-09-01 投资要点 请参阅附注免责声明 2 ◼ 焦点：美油库存去化，平稳。持续关注反内卷进展，石化行业中老旧装置淘汰退出和更新改造的进展。 ◼ 回顾：本周申万一级行业指数表现中，石油石化指数表现一般，较上周下跌0.57%。而中信三级行业指 数表现来看，本周其他石化在石油石化中表现最佳，涨幅1.15%。 ◼ 原油：能源价格震荡。美原油库存下降，美成品油库存表现分化 ◼ 聚酯：涤纶长丝价格、价差均稳中有涨。江浙织机涤纶长丝库存天数上涨，织机开工率上涨 ◼ 烯烃：样本聚烯烃现货价格平稳，库存下降 ◼ 标的： ➢ 上游：地缘若未来再次给出原油溢价，则利好上游标的。 ➢ 炼化：若需求好转，优供给、淘汰落后产能有所进展，则利好中游炼化。 ◼ 风险提示：油价剧烈波动、地缘风险、欧美通胀反复、欧美经济波动、行业政策变化、项目投产进度变 化、需求变化、其他等。 本周石化表现一般，石油石化指数下跌0.57% 图表 ...

证券研究报告：金融工程报告 发布时间：2025-09-01 研究所 分析师:肖承志 SAC 登记编号:S1340524090001 Email:xiaochengzhi@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《微盘股成交占比持续回落 ——微盘股指数周报 20250824》 - 2025.08.25 《本周微盘股大幅跑输的三个原因— —微盘股指数周报 20250817》 盘股指数周报 20250720》 《"量化新规"或将平稳落地，双均线 《调整仍不充分——微盘股指数周报 20250622》 - 2025.08.18 《大盘资金流出，中小盘资金回流— —微盘股指数周报 20250810》 - 2025.08.11 《微盘股将再次迎来高胜率区间—— 微盘股指数周报 20250803》 - 2025.08.04 《微盘股持续创新高背后的历史意义 有何不同？——微盘股指数周报 - 2025.06.23 《短期上涨动能枯竭，控制仓位做好 防御——微盘股指数周报 20250615》 - 2025.06.16 《为何微盘股基金仓位下降指数却不 断新高？——微盘股指数周报 金工周报 微盘股成交占比进一步回落至年内低位 ——微盘 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within the next six months [12]. Core Views - The company's revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 2.787 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.66%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 382 million yuan, up 9.49% year-on-year. The second quarter saw revenues of 1.543 billion yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 19.61% and a year-on-year increase of 23.94% [3]. - The growth in performance is primarily driven by rising prices of tin and antimony, alongside ongoing efficiency improvements [3]. - The company has stable production levels for tin and antimony concentrates, with tin ingot production increasing by 19.30% year-on-year [4]. - Significant improvements in profitability were noted across subsidiaries, with net profits for Huaxi Mining, Gaofeng Mining, and Fozu Mining increasing by 13.71%, 47.02%, and 123.53% respectively [4]. - Future growth potential is highlighted by ongoing projects aimed at increasing mining capacity and efficiency, including the expansion of the Gaofeng mine and the successful transition of exploration rights at the Tongkeng tin-zinc mine to mining rights [5]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 5.709 billion yuan in 2025, 6.476 billion yuan in 2026, and 7.327 billion yuan in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 23.28%, 13.43%, and 13.15% respectively [5][8]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 829 million yuan in 2025, 953 million yuan in 2026, and 1.164 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 26.02%, 14.98%, and 22.17% respectively [5][8]. - The projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 24.32, 21.15, and 17.31 respectively [5][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 20% relative to the benchmark index within the next six months [2][10]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and profit for the first half of 2025, with operating income reaching 5.526 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.01%, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 397 million yuan, up 33.76% [4][10]. - The gross margin improved to 30.02%, reflecting a 0.79 percentage point increase year-on-year, driven by product mix enhancement and a decrease in raw milk prices [4][6]. - The company is focusing on low-temperature products as a strategic core, with direct-to-consumer (DTC) business as the primary growth engine, aiming to accelerate revenue growth through product innovation [8][10]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved a net profit margin of 7.18%, an increase of 1.65 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to improved gross margins and reduced management expenses [4][5]. - The second quarter of 2025 saw revenues of 2.901 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.46%, with net profit rising by 27.37% [5]. - The company’s revenue from liquid milk, milk powder, and other products for the first half of 2025 was 5.067 billion yuan, 460 million yuan, and 413 million yuan respectively, with liquid milk showing a 4.60% increase year-on-year [6]. Product and Market Development - New product revenue accounted for a double-digit percentage of total revenue, with low-temperature product sales growing over 10% year-on-year [7]. - The company launched innovative products such as yogurt and caramel milk pudding, which quickly gained consumer acceptance, contributing to revenue growth [7]. - E-commerce channel revenue reached 595 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.41%, driven by the company's active engagement with platforms like Taobao and Pinduoduo [7]. Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 11.271 billion yuan, 12.030 billion yuan, and 13.057 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 5.68%, 6.74%, and 8.53% [10][12]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 716 million yuan, 870 million yuan, and 1.041 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 33.16%, 21.51%, and 19.66% respectively [10][12].