Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Views - The report emphasizes that the demand for non-ferrous metals is under short-term pressure, recommending to buy copper, aluminum, and tin on dips [3][4][5] - Precious metals are viewed positively, with silver prices rising and expectations of continued inflows into ETFs due to macroeconomic conditions [3] - The report highlights the potential for supply-demand tightness in copper due to production adjustments and government spending expectations [4] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the non-ferrous metals sector is at 9404.84, with a weekly high of 9504.06 and a low of 4295.55 [1] Price Movements - LME copper decreased by 2.76%, aluminum by 1.96%, zinc by 0.19%, lead by 0.75%, and tin by 1.02% during the week [20] - COMEX gold fell by 0.17%, while silver increased by 5.63% [20] Inventory Levels - Global visible inventories saw an increase of 72,618 tons for copper and 35,512 tons for aluminum, while tin inventories rose by 3,159 tons [30][31]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for WuXi AppTec, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within the next six months [8]. Core Insights - WuXi AppTec's revenue for 2025 is projected at 45.46 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.8%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 19.15 billion yuan, a significant increase of 102.7% [5][8]. - The company's core business growth exceeded expectations, with a 21.4% increase in revenue from continuing operations, surpassing previous guidance of 17-18% [6]. - The fourth quarter of 2025 showed a revenue of 12.6 billion yuan, reflecting a 9.2% quarter-on-quarter growth, and a net profit of 7.08 billion yuan, marking a 142.5% increase year-on-year [5][6]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2025, WuXi AppTec's revenue is expected to be 454.6 billion yuan, with a net profit of 191.5 billion yuan. The projections for 2026 and 2027 are 515.5 billion yuan and 588.2 billion yuan in revenue, respectively [8][10]. - The company's Non-IFRS net profit for 2025 is forecasted at 149.6 billion yuan, a 41.3% increase compared to the previous year [5]. - The report highlights a stable Non-IFRS net profit margin of 35.1% in Q4 2025, with expectations for continued improvement in profitability in 2026 due to strong demand in the Chemistry business [7][8]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected at 6.42 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 16.3 for the same year [10][11]. - The report anticipates a gradual increase in profitability, with net profit margins expected to improve from 42.1% in 2025 to 32.9% in 2027 [11][13]. - The company's asset-liability ratio is projected to decrease from 26.4% in 2025 to 20.5% in 2026, indicating improved financial stability [11][13].

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Stronger than the market, maintained [1] Core Views - Focus on the polyester restocking logic and the marginal improvement expectations for PX and PTA supply and demand this year. The price spread between PX (China main port) and naphtha (Japan) has recovered to $345.92 per ton. Attention is drawn to the restocking logic before the Spring Festival [2] - The oil and petrochemical index performed poorly this week, rising by 0.29% compared to last week. Among the sub-indices, engineering services performed best within the oil and petrochemical sector, with a rise of 7.21% [5] - Crude oil prices increased; US crude oil inventories rose while gasoline inventories fell [6][10] Summary by Sections Crude Oil - Crude oil prices increased, with Brent crude futures closing at $63.45 per barrel, up 2.3% from last week [7] - US crude oil inventories increased by 8,106 thousand barrels, while gasoline inventories decreased by 235 thousand barrels [13] Polyester - The price of polyester filament remained stable, but the price spread decreased. The latest prices for polyester filament POY, DTY, and FDY are 6,550, 7,750, and 6,800 yuan per ton, respectively, with price spreads decreasing by 91 yuan per ton [16] - The inventory days for polyester filament in Jiangsu and Zhejiang increased, with FDY, DTY, and POY inventory days at 19.5, 24.6, and 11.7 days, respectively. The operating rate for polyester filament and downstream weaving machines decreased by 2.8% [20] Olefins - Sample PE spot prices increased to 6,900 yuan per ton, up 0.73% from last week. The petrochemical inventory of polyolefins decreased by 60,000 tons, totaling 570,000 tons [27]

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the collaboration between SF Express and Jitu Express, which is expected to enhance their overseas logistics capabilities and improve service quality [5][6] - SF Express is the largest logistics service provider in Asia and has a strong international presence, while Jitu Express has shown rapid growth in Southeast Asia [5] - The report recommends investing in SF Express and keeping an eye on Jitu Express due to their potential for global value capture through their partnership [7] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Basic Information - The closing index is at 2447.76, with a 52-week high of 3008.46 and a low of 2325.54 [1] Recent Developments - SF Express plans to issue 226 million H shares to Jitu Express at HKD 36.74 per share, while Jitu Express will issue 822 million B shares to SF Express at HKD 10.10 per share, leading to SF Express holding approximately 10% of Jitu Express post-transaction [4][5] Performance Forecast and Investment Rating - SF Express is rated "Buy" with a closing price of CNY 39.19 and a market cap of CNY 197.5 billion, with expected EPS of CNY 2.34 for 2025 and CNY 2.60 for 2026 [9]

Export Performance - In December, China's export growth exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 6.6%, up 0.7 percentage points from the previous value, and a two-year compound growth rate of 8.62%[9] - For the entire year of 2025, cumulative export growth was 5.5%, nearly matching the 2024 figure of 5.82%, indicating strong export momentum despite U.S. tariff policies[9] - High-tech products drove export growth, with a 13.2% year-on-year increase, contributing 2.4 percentage points to overall export growth[18] Trade Partner Dynamics - China's trade partnerships have diversified, with exports to ASEAN and the EU increasing, while exports to the U.S. decreased to 11.14% of total exports, down 3.52 percentage points from the previous year[11] - Exports to "Belt and Road" countries grew by 11.2%, contributing 5.4 percentage points to overall export growth, with ASEAN becoming the largest export market for three consecutive years[11] Import Trends - December imports also exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year growth of 5.7%, significantly higher than the market forecast of -0.28%[20] - The cumulative import growth for 2025 was flat at 0%, indicating stability in import levels compared to the previous year[20] Future Outlook - Despite a high base effect, export growth is expected to remain a key contributor to economic growth in 2026, with an estimated growth rate of around 3%[2] - The ongoing upgrade of product structures, particularly in high-tech and green products, is anticipated to continue supporting export growth[25]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2][11]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leader in network visualization and data intelligence, with a strategic focus on AI implementation that opens up long-term growth potential [3]. - The acquisition of a 35% stake in Yunbianyun signifies the company's commitment to deepening its AI strategy, expanding its capabilities across various core industries such as retail, manufacturing, and healthcare [8]. - The company has established a robust foundation in DPI (Deep Packet Inspection) technology, which enhances its security capabilities and positions it as a benchmark for domestic intelligent defense solutions [4]. - The company is actively involved in the automotive internet security sector, benefiting from advancements in autonomous driving technologies [5]. - The company is also participating in the commercialization of satellite communications, which is expected to accelerate its growth as a supplier in this emerging ecosystem [6]. Financial Summary - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 497 million, 594 million, and 704 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 12.39%, 19.44%, and 18.53% [11][13]. - Basic earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.25, 0.51, and 0.78 yuan for the same years, corresponding to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 125.45, 60.84, and 39.77 [11][13]. - The company maintains a low debt-to-asset ratio of 18.5%, indicating a strong financial position [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 20% relative to the benchmark index within six months [7]. Core Insights - The company has disclosed a comprehensive market-oriented operation plan for 2026, focusing on reforms in product systems, operational models, channel layouts, and pricing mechanisms [4]. - The product system is optimized into a pyramid structure, with the base focusing on the flagship product, while premium and ultra-high-end products are strategically positioned to enhance social and collectible attributes [4][6]. - The operational model has been upgraded to a multi-dimensional collaborative marketing system, moving from traditional sales methods to a combination of self-sale, distribution, consignment, and agency sales [5]. - The company has implemented a dynamic pricing mechanism based on market demand, which includes adjustments to retail prices and channel profit margins [5][6]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 182.91 billion, 188.81 billion, and 199.54 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 90.61 billion, 93.26 billion, and 99.33 billion yuan, reflecting growth rates of 5.03%, 3.23%, and 5.68% respectively [7][9]. Company Overview - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 1,398.01 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 175.07 billion yuan [3]. - The company has a debt-to-asset ratio of 19.0% and a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.37 [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within six months [5][13]. Core Insights - The company is projected to achieve a revenue of 20.76-21.12 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 31.07%-33.34%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be between 4.34-4.59 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 30.46%-37.97% [3][4]. - For Q4 2025, the company anticipates revenue of 3.916-4.276 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.35%-30.33%, and a net profit of 579-829 million yuan, with a growth range of -6.46% to 33.93% [3][4]. - The company plans to increase its investment in freezer placements and expand its overseas market presence over the next 5-10 years, aiming to enhance its global operational capabilities [4]. Financial Performance Summary - The estimated revenue for 2025 is 20.94 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 32.21%. The estimated net profit attributable to the parent company is 4.465 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 34.20% [4][5]. - The company forecasts revenues of 26.19 billion yuan and 30.92 billion yuan for 2026 and 2027, respectively, with growth rates of 25.13% and 18.08% [5][9]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 8.59 yuan, 11.19 yuan, and 13.63 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 31, 24, and 19 [5][9].

Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the computer industry is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the significant growth potential in the AI and pharmaceutical sectors, with the global drug development outsourcing market expected to grow from USD 151.2 billion in 2023 to USD 363.2 billion by 2030, reflecting a CAGR of 13.3% [4][6] - Major North American companies are intensifying their efforts in AI and healthcare, with notable product launches and investments aimed at accelerating AI drug development [5] - The report emphasizes that AI has become a crucial "accelerator" in drug discovery, capable of efficiently learning complex relationships between molecular structures and biological activities, thus potentially transforming the pharmaceutical industry [7] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the computer industry is 5947.69, with a 52-week high of 6063.95 and a low of 4080.58 [1] Recent Developments - The report discusses the emergence of AI applications in the pharmaceutical sector, identifying key characteristics of successful AI applications, such as access to vast amounts of real data and the complexity of medical processes [4] - Companies like Crystal and TEMPUS are expected to achieve positive EBITDA for the first time in 2026, indicating a potential valuation restructuring in the industry [6] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on AI for Science and AI+pharmaceutical sectors, recommending companies such as Crystal Holdings, Insilico Medicine, and WuXi AppTec [10]

行业基本情况 证券研究报告：计算机|点评报告 发布时间：2026-01-14 行业投资评级 强于大市|维持 | 收盘点位 | | 6063.95 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 6063.95 | | 52 | 周最低 | 3994.26 | 行业相对指数表现（相对值） -4% 2% 8% 14% 20% 26% 32% 38% 44% 50% 2025-01 2025-03 2025-06 2025-08 2025-10 2026-01 计算机 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:陈涵泊 SAC 登记编号:S1340525080001 Email:chenhanbo@cnpsec.com 分析师:李佩京 SAC 登记编号:S1340525080003 Email:lipeijing@cnpsec.com 分析师:王思 SAC 登记编号:S1340525080002 Email:wangsi1@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《国产 AI 或将全面超越》 - 2026.01.12 政策吹响号角，AI 驱动工业软件迈向"智变"关 键期 ⚫ 政策加 ...