行业相对指数表现（相对值） 强于大市 |维持 行业基本情况 | | 收盘点位 | 8787.25 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 9323.49 | | 52 | 周最低 | 6790.4 | 2025-01 2025-03 2025-06 2025-08 2025-10 2026-01 -4% 0% 4% 8% 12% 16% 20% 24% 28% 32% 36% 医药生物 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 证券研究报告：医药生物|点评报告 行业投资评级 l AI 在制药、辅助诊断、医疗服务等领域步入成熟阶段 在制药领域，凭借 AI 技术平台强大的数据分析和模型预测能力， 相关公司在分子设计和药物筛选方面能够大幅提升药物的研发效率 和成功率。AI 制药公司通过和大型药企合作共同推动管线进展，涉及 计算机、物理、化学、生物、临床等交叉领域，管线推进越靠后，价 值量显著增高。在影像/手术领域：AI 通过在医疗影像分析方向深度 学习，能够快速识别病灶，实现精准诊断；AI 亦能辅助术前及术中及 时规划，并提供综合解决方案。在辅助诊断领域，主要参与者为数据 驱动型平台 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within six months [9][15]. Core Insights - The company has invested in Star Ring Fusion, supporting the development of controllable nuclear fusion technology, with a total investment of 1 billion yuan in the A-round financing [4]. - Star Ring Fusion, established in October 2021, is based on Tsinghua University's technology and aims to complete engineering validation by 2028 and start commercial demonstration by around 2032 [5]. - The company is a leader in the tank container industry, holding approximately 50% of the global market share, and is actively exploring new business opportunities in high-end equipment and medical imaging sectors [6]. Financial Performance and Projections - The company’s projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.725 billion yuan, 3.998 billion yuan, and 4.916 billion yuan, respectively, with expected growth rates of -18.62%, 46.69%, and 22.97% [7][11]. - The forecasted net profit attributable to the parent company for the same years is 169 million yuan, 308 million yuan, and 449 million yuan, with growth rates of -44.48%, 82.34%, and 45.93% [9][11]. - The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios (P/E) are projected to be 65.62, 35.99, and 24.66 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [9][11].

Report Information - Report Type: Fixed Income Report - Release Date: January 13, 2026 - Analyst: Liang Weichao [2] - Research Assistant: Wang Yi [2] Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The larger the increase in the spring stock market rally, the higher the probability of pressure on the bond market. When the Shanghai Composite Index rises more than 20% in spring, the 10 - year Treasury bonds are likely to fall during the same period. In the more common 10% - 20% medium - increase range, the bond market is more likely to fluctuate or stage a phased recovery [2]. - A mid - stage acceleration in the spring stock market rally is more likely to suppress the bond market than a bottom - bouncing recovery. When the rally occurs in the mid - stage acceleration of the stock market, it's more likely to be interpreted as a signal of fundamental or policy orientation changes, and inflation and nominal growth expectations enter the core of pricing, putting pressure on the bond market [3]. - A spring rally led by cyclical sectors has a greater impact on the bond market than an independent rally in technology and consumer sectors. When cyclical and stable sectors resonate with growth sectors, the re - pricing of nominal growth and credit expansion is significantly strengthened, and the bond market is under greater pressure [3]. - In 2026, the spring stock market rally is likely to be a combination of "mid - stage acceleration, easing expectations, and growth - led", which will mainly cause short - term disturbances to the bond market rather than being a long - term negative factor. Before the rally spreads to cyclical and stable sectors and forms a resonance, interest rates are more likely to remain volatile at a high level, and the first quarter may be a phased high point [4]. Summary by Directory 1. The Impact of Past Spring Stock Market Rallies on the Bond Market Varies by Increase - **1.1 "Spring Rally" Offers Good Opportunities, Risk Preference Tilts towards the Stock Market**: The spring rally in the A - share market is a high - probability and high - return phased market window. From 2002 to 2026, the probability of a spring rally is over 90%. The average maximum increase in the main rising phase of the spring rally is about 14%, and the average increase remains at about 12% in the past 15 years. In some years, such as 2007, 2009, 2015 and 2019, the increase exceeded 30% [10]. - **1.2 Past Spring Stock Market Rallies Tend to Pressure the Bond Market, with a High Probability of Bond Market Recovery in the Medium - Increase Range**: When the Shanghai Composite Index rises more than 20% during the "spring rally", the 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate is likely to rise significantly. When the increase is less than 20%, the bond market shows different performances, including simultaneous rises in stocks and bonds, and stocks rising while bonds falling. In the medium - increase range, the bond market may either rise or fall, but there is a high probability of recovery even if it falls [13]. 2. Bond Market Performance Varies Depending on the "Stage of the Larger Stock Market Rally" during the Spring Stock Market Rally - **2.1 In the Case of a Low - Level Rebound in the Spring Stock Market Rally, Loose Liquidity May Drive Stocks and Bonds to Rise Together**: When the spring rally starts in the low - level repair stage (i.e., a rebound after an oversold), stocks and bonds often move in the same direction, and the bond market is insensitive to the rise of the stock market. In the past, when the stock market rebounded from a low level in spring and the stage increase did not exceed 20%, the 10 - year Treasury bond yield mostly remained stable or declined during the spring rally. The larger the decline in the Shanghai Composite Index in the two months before the spring rally, the greater the possible decline in interest rates during the spring rally. For example, in 2024, the stock market and the bond market both rose during the spring rally [18][22]. - **2.2 In the Case of a Mid - Stage Acceleration in the Spring Stock Market Rally, the Bond Market Is Likely to Be Pressured First and Then Ease**: When the spring rally occurs in the acceleration stage of the stock market's upward trend, the bond market may face pressure in the short term but is likely to ease later. In this context, the continued rise of the stock market is more likely to be interpreted as a signal of "expected fundamental improvement or policy orientation change", which puts pressure on the bond market [23]. 3. The Impact of Spring Stock Market Rallies Led by Different Styles on the Bond Market Varies - **3.1 Spring Stock Market Rallies Led Solely by Technology, Consumption, or Finance Have Limited Suppression on the Bond Market**: When the spring rally is led by the growth (technology) sector, the rise of the stock market mainly reflects the repair of risk preference and the anticipation of the future development of emerging industries, and has little impact on the bond market. For example, in 2010, 2014, 2024 and 2025, the average change in the 10 - year Treasury bond yield during the spring rally was only - 1.5bp. When the consumer sector leads the rally, the impact on the bond market is also positive. When the financial sector leads the rally, there is a high probability of driving both stocks and bonds up [31]. - **3.2 Spring Stock Market Rallies with Resonance of Cyclical and Stable Styles Shake Expectations and Impact the Bond Market**: When the "growth, stable and cyclical" sectors resonate in the spring rally, the impact on the bond market is more significant. The resonance of these sectors strengthens the market's pricing of the return of nominal growth, credit expansion and policy effects, and puts upward pressure on the risk - free interest rate. For example, in 2007, 2009 and 2015, the bond market was significantly pressured [35]. 4. How to "Invest in Bonds Based on the Stock Market" in the 2026 Spring Stock Market Rally? - In 2026, the spring stock market rally is likely to be a risk - preference repair - type increase, focusing on growth themes. It will mainly cause short - term disturbances to the bond market rather than being a long - term negative factor. After the spring rally, the downward pressure on interest rates may gradually ease. Before the rally spreads to cyclical and stable sectors and forms a resonance, interest rates are more likely to remain volatile at a high level, and the first quarter may be a phased high point [40][44].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1] Core Insights - The company is positioned to benefit from a policy turning point in robotic surgery, with an expected improvement in payment policies for orthopedic surgical robots [4] - The company has launched the world's first all-orthopedic surgical robot, establishing a leading advantage in the market [4] - Revenue growth is significant, with consumables and service income projected to become major growth drivers in the future [4] Company Overview - Latest closing price: 18.89 CNY - Total shares: 4.56 billion, with a market capitalization of 8.6 billion CNY [3] - The company has a debt-to-asset ratio of 24.3% and a current P/E ratio of -69.96 [3] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 187 million CNY, representing a 103.5% increase year-on-year [4] - The company completed approximately 35,000 surgeries in the first three quarters of 2025, maintaining a dominant position in the domestic market [4] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 266 million CNY, 383 million CNY, and 549 million CNY, respectively, with expected net profits of -151 million CNY, 2 million CNY, and 77 million CNY [5][8]

近期研究报告 《假期消费温和增长，文旅消费多元扩 容》 - 2026.01.05 宏观观点 海外宏观周报：消费韧性支撑美国经济 ⚫ 核心观点： 预计今年美国居民消费将保持稳健，主要因素包括以下几点：通 胀逐渐走低支撑居民真实收入水平；大而美法案（OBBBA）减税措施对 居民可支配收入形成支撑；美股财富效应影响下，资产净值的增加往 往能够提升居民的消费意愿，拉动整体消费需求。 证券研究报告：宏观报告 发布时间：2026-01-13 研究所 分析师:李起 SAC 登记编号:S1340524110001 Email:liqi2@cnpsec.com 研究助理:高晓洁 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020001 Email:gaoxiaojie@cnpsec.com 然而，整体消费稳健并不能掩盖居民收入状况在 2026 年进一步 分化的风险。相对于高收入群体，低收入群体更加依赖就业市场，并 且 OBBBA 对居民的支持主要通过减税而非直接补贴的形式实现，这种 政策对于高收入者的边际效应更显著，而对低收入群体的刺激作用相 对有限。同时，美股的财富效应也更多地集中于富裕群体，对他们的 消费拉动效果可能强于低收入群体。 ...

Report Information - Report Type: Fixed Income Report - Release Time: January 13, 2026 - Analysts: Liang Weichao (SAC Registration No.: S1340523070001), Cui Chao (SAC Registration No.: S1340523120001) [1][2] Investment Rating - The provided content does not mention the report's industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - High - frequency economic data focuses on: production - end heat differentiation with increased coke oven, blast furnace, and PX operating rates and increased rebar production, but decreased asphalt and automobile tire operating rates; decreased commercial housing transactions and land supply areas; overall price recovery with rising energy and metal prices (copper prices hitting new highs) and falling agricultural product prices (except for rising pork prices). Short - term focus on the implementation of fiscal and monetary coordinated policies [3][35] Section Summaries Production - Steel: In the week of January 9, coke oven capacity utilization increased by 0.87 pct, blast furnace operating rate increased by 0.37 pct, and rebar production increased by 8.56 tons. - Petroleum Asphalt: In the week of January 7, the operating rate continued to decline by 2.0 pct at a low level. - Chemicals: On January 9, the PX operating rate increased by 1.67 pct, and the PTA operating rate remained flat. - Automobile Tires: In the week of January 8, the all - steel tire operating rate decreased by 0.13 pct, and the semi - steel tire operating rate decreased by 2.36 pct [4][13][14] Demand - Real Estate: In the week of January 11, commercial housing transaction area decreased, inventory - to - sales ratio increased, land supply area decreased, and residential land transaction premium rate increased. - Movie Box Office: In the week of January 4, it increased by 515 million yuan compared with the previous week. - Automobile: In the week of December 31, the daily average retail sales of automobile manufacturers increased by 33,000 vehicles, and the daily average wholesale sales increased by 91,000 vehicles. - Shipping Freight Rates: In the week of January 9, the SCFI index decreased by 0.54%, the CCFI index increased by 4.21%, and the BDI index dropped significantly by 10.31% at a high level [5][17][21][24] Prices - Energy: On January 9, Brent crude oil prices rose by 4.26% to $63.34 per barrel, and coking coal futures prices rose by 6.5% to 1,188 yuan per ton. - Metals: On January 9, LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices changed by +4.31%, +3.81%, and +0.85% respectively, and domestic rebar futures prices rose by 0.61%. - Agricultural Products: On January 9, the overall price of agricultural products declined, with the 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices dropping by 0.56%. Pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits prices changed by +1.18%, +2.03%, -1.43%, and -0.63% respectively compared with the previous week [6][26][28] Logistics - Subway Passenger Volume: On January 11, the seven - day moving average of subway passenger volume in Beijing and Shanghai increased. - Flight Volume: On January 11, the seven - day moving average of domestic and international flight volumes decreased. - Urban Traffic: On January 11, the seven - day moving average of the peak congestion index in first - tier cities increased [7][31][33]

Group 1 - The report highlights that during the recent bull market, individual investors did not significantly increase their net purchases of ETFs, while institutional funds, particularly represented by Central Huijin, showed multiple instances of substantial accumulation [12][18][19] - Central Huijin's role has shifted post-September 24, 2025, where it is expected to act more as a stabilizing force during market downturns rather than consistently buying into ETFs [18][19] - The report emphasizes that "patient capital," particularly insurance funds, will play a crucial role in 2026, with a focus on their ability to provide support to the A-share market [19][20] Group 2 - The report estimates that the incremental capital from insurance funds in 2026 could reach approximately 731 billion, based on two main factors: premium income and reinvestment of maturing assets [33][35] - Insurance funds are expected to maintain a preference for high-dividend stocks, particularly in the banking sector, indicating a "barbell" investment strategy that will support the A-share market primarily at the index level [34][35] - The report discusses the constraints faced by insurance funds, particularly regarding solvency ratios, which have declined, impacting their ability to enter the market despite regulatory adjustments to risk factors [27][29][32]

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" and is maintained [2] Core Views - The basic chemical industry index closed at 4569.80 points, up 4.21% from last week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.35% [17] - Among the 25 sub-industries in the chemical sector, all showed gains, with inorganic salts, modified plastics, synthetic resins, and chlor-alkali leading the way with weekly increases of 10.92%, 9.94%, 7.87%, and 7.60% respectively [18][19] - A total of 462 stocks in the chemical sector saw 400 stocks rise (87%) and 57 stocks fall (12%) during the week [21] Summary by Relevant Sections Weekly Chemical Market Overview - The basic chemical industry index rose to 4569.80 points, marking a 4.21% increase compared to the previous week, and outperformed the CSI 300 index by 2.35% [17] - The weekly performance of 25 sub-industries showed no declines, with significant gains in inorganic salts and modified plastics [18][19] Chemical Product Price Trends - Among 380 tracked chemical products, 89 saw price increases while 70 experienced declines [24] - The top ten products with the highest price increases included lithium manganate and lithium battery electrolytes, with increases ranging from 7% to 22% [25] - Conversely, the top ten products with the largest price declines included vitamin VD3 and lithium hexafluorophosphate, with declines ranging from 4% to 13% [26] Key Chemical Sub-Industry Tracking - The polyester filament market remained stable, with average prices for POY, FDY, and DTY showing slight declines [27] - The average industry operating rate for polyester filament was approximately 88.11%, with some facilities undergoing maintenance [28] - The average processing margin for polyester products indicated a slight improvement in profitability compared to the previous week [29] Tire Industry Insights - The operating rates for the full steel tire industry decreased to 55.50%, while the semi-steel tire industry dropped to 63.78% [38] - Export volumes from major tire companies in Southeast Asia showed significant year-on-year declines [39] - The average price of styrene-butadiene rubber increased by approximately 2.45% during the week [40] Refrigerant Market Overview - The R22 refrigerant market remained weak, with prices stabilizing at low levels due to cautious market sentiment [47] - In contrast, the R134a refrigerant market continued to rise, with major producers increasing prices amid tight supply conditions [48]

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the domestic AI sector has transitioned from quantitative accumulation to qualitative breakthroughs, supported by government policies and advancements in core technologies [5] - The launch of the DeepSeek V4 model is anticipated to enhance code generation and long-context processing capabilities, positioning domestic AI models among the global top tier [6] - Domestic AI chip performance is evolving from "following" to "benchmarking," with major players like Huawei planning significant upgrades to their chip series [7] - The capital expenditure (Capex) for domestic cloud service providers (CSPs) is expected to increase significantly in 2026, with ByteDance planning around 160 billion RMB and Alibaba over 380 billion RMB for technology development [8] - The user penetration of AI applications is rapidly increasing, with monthly active users (MAU) for AI applications in China growing from 135 million in January 2024 to 544 million in January 2025 [9] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Basic Situation - The closing index is at 5653.73, with a 52-week high of 5841.52 and a low of 3994.26 [2] Relative Index Performance - The relative performance of the computer industry compared to the CSI 300 index shows fluctuations, with a notable increase of 41% from January 2025 to January 2026 [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on various sectors, including internet companies like Alibaba and Tencent, AI agents, and domestic and overseas computing power providers [10]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" and is maintained [2] Core Insights - The report highlights that the new housing transaction data is expected to be under pressure in the first quarter due to the release of pent-up demand before the Spring Festival and high base effects [5] - Regulatory measures have been introduced to alleviate short-term liquidity pressures for real estate companies, including a five-year extension for eligible projects on the "white list" [5] - The government is promoting a package of policies to support consumer upgrades and housing demand [5] Industry Fundamentals Tracking New Housing Transactions and Inventory - Last week, the new housing transaction area in 30 major cities was 1.1627 million square meters, with a cumulative area of 3.4268 million square meters for the year, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 25.5% [6] - The average transaction area over the past four weeks in these cities was 2.254 million square meters, down 27.4% year-on-year and 9.2% month-on-month [6] - First-tier cities saw an average transaction area of 0.5052 million square meters, down 35.7% year-on-year [6] Second-Hand Housing Transactions and Listings - Last week, the transaction area for second-hand housing in 20 cities was 2.1592 million square meters, with a cumulative area of 3.9633 million square meters for the year, down 15.3% year-on-year [7] - The listing index for second-hand housing was 7.38, up 62.9% month-on-month, while the listing price index was 146.9, down 0.55% month-on-month [7] Land Market Transactions - Last week, 47 residential land plots were newly supplied in 100 major cities, with 30 plots sold [27] - The average transaction price for residential land was 4,715 yuan per square meter, with a premium rate of 1.26% [27] Market Review - The A-share real estate index rose by 5.07% last week, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which increased by 2.79% [30] - The Hong Kong property service and management index rose by 4.36%, outperforming the Hang Seng Composite Index, which increased by 0.38% [30]