Group 1: Report Summary - The bond market may move forward in a volatile manner in the fourth quarter [3][5][16] - There is still an opportunity for overall easing in monetary policy, and the period around the important meeting in October is a crucial time window [3][10] - The "redemption pressure" has become long - term and complex, which may still impact the bond market in the fourth quarter [4][12][14] Group 2: Core Views Short - and Medium - term Views - In the short term, the bond market is still under pressure. It is important to verify that the rebound high of long - term interest rates is gradually decreasing. If it is verified that around 1.8% is the relatively top level of the 10 - year Treasury bond, the bond - bull logic of the downward - trending yield can still be maintained. In the medium term, the recovery of risk preference is more reflected in the term spread premium, and in extreme cases, it may return to the level of 50 - 60BP [3][10] Monetary Policy Views - The third - quarter monetary policy meeting did not release clear incremental policy signals. But considering factors such as the Fed's interest rate cut, the adjustment of liability interest rates after the previous reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, the policy demand to maintain economic improvement, and the marginal cooling of the equity market sentiment, there is still an opportunity for overall easing. The period around the important meeting in October is a crucial time window [3][10] Redemption Pressure Views - The new regulations on public fund redemption fees are about to be implemented. The redemption game around the systematic adjustment of the product liability side is ongoing. The institutional - end redemption may be more orderly, which may lead to a stage where the upward risk of yields is controllable but difficult to decline significantly. However, there may also be a stage of concentrated release of negative - feedback risks [4][12][14] Seasonal, Valuation, and Factor Analysis - Seasonally, since 2010, in 15 years, the 10 - year yield has accumulated an increase in 8 years and a decrease in 7 years in the fourth quarter. Considering the cumulative decline in the first three quarters, the bond market in the fourth quarter is seasonally weak and in need of adjustment. In terms of valuation, the bond market has allocation value. Considering factors such as the slowdown of supply pressure, the possible occurrence of monetary easing opportunities, and the continuous existence of redemption pressure, the bond market may alternate between recovery and adjustment [5][16] Group 3: Content Summarized by Directory Fourth - Quarter Bond Market Outlook - Short - term pressure remains, and it is necessary to verify the decline of long - term interest rate rebound highs. Medium - term risk preference recovery affects term spreads. There is an opportunity for monetary easing around the October meeting. The redemption pressure is long - term and complex, and the bond market may move forward in a volatile manner, alternating between recovery due to allocation value and adjustment due to redemption pressure [3][4][5] Comparison of Monetary Policy Meetings in Q3 and Q2 of 2025 - The assessment of the economic situation has not changed significantly. The monetary policy emphasizes continuity, stability, flexibility, and foresight. It aims to maintain liquidity, guide credit investment, reduce financing costs, and support key areas [11][12][13] Impact of Redemption Pressure on the Bond Market - The new regulations on public fund redemption fees are about to be implemented. The institutional - end redemption demand is increasing, the asset - end selection space after redemption is limited, and there is time for adjustment during the transition period. This may lead to a complex impact on the bond market [4][12][14]

证券研究报告：传媒 | 公司点评报告 股票投资评级 买入|维持 个股表现 -8% -1% 6% 13% 20% 27% 34% 41% 48% 55% 62% 2024-09 2024-12 2025-02 2025-05 2025-07 2025-09 中南传媒 传媒 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 ⚫ 事件回顾 2025 年 8 月 27 日，公司发布 2025 年半年报， 2025H1，公司实 现营业收入 63.35 亿元，同比下降 8.09%；归母净利润 10.17 亿元，同 比下降 31.46%；扣非后归母净利润 9.95 亿元，同比下降 34.54%。 2025Q2，公司实现营业收入 34.61 亿元，同比下降 11.10%；归母净利 润 6.48 亿元，同比下降 32.31%；扣非后归母净利润 6.17 亿元，同比 下降 25.91%。 ⚫ 事件点评 公司基本情况 | 最新收盘价（元） | 12.20 | | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本（亿股）17.96 / 17.96 | | | 总市值/流通市值（亿元）219 / 219 | | | 52 周内最高/最低价 | 15.14 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2]. Core Insights - The advertising business is showing steady recovery, with the company entering the computing power sector to cultivate new growth points [5][6]. - In H1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 1.657 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.36%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 10.83% to 144 million yuan [5]. - The company is enhancing operational efficiency through cost reduction and efficiency improvement measures, with a decrease in expense ratio to 11.24% [6]. Company Overview - Latest closing price: 30.15 yuan - Total shares: 2.11 billion, with a total market value of 6.4 billion yuan [4]. - The company has a debt-to-asset ratio of 41.7% and a price-to-earnings ratio of 45.68 [4]. Financial Performance - The company’s revenue for Q2 2025 was 840 million yuan, down 13.93% year-on-year, while net profit decreased by 13.15% to 71 million yuan [5]. - The company’s operating cash flow turned positive in H1 2025, reaching 569 million yuan, with cash reserves increasing by 47.18% to 919 million yuan [6]. Strategic Developments - The company is diversifying its investments, collaborating with Keton Technology in chip distribution and computing power services [7]. - In the sports lottery sector, the company has established over 30 lottery image stores and is working on a project with the railway bureau to enhance lottery services [7]. - The company is leveraging AI technology in marketing, with expectations for the AI marketing market in China to grow significantly [8][9]. Earnings Forecast - Projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 3.691 billion, 4.208 billion, and 4.569 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 353 million, 502 million, and 561 million yuan [10][12]. - The report anticipates an EPS of 1.68, 2.38, and 2.66 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [10].

- The report introduces the **Diffusion Index Industry Rotation Model**, which tracks industry trends based on momentum strategies. The model has been monitored for four years, with notable performance in 2021 when it captured industry trends effectively, achieving an excess return of over 25% before experiencing a significant drawdown due to cyclical stock adjustments. In 2025, the model suggested allocating to industries such as comprehensive, non-ferrous metals, communication, banking, media, and retail trade[24][28] - The **Diffusion Index Industry Rotation Model** ranks industries weekly based on diffusion index values. As of September 26, 2025, the top six industries were communication (0.949), non-ferrous metals (0.927), banking (0.897), electronics (0.864), automotive (0.859), and comprehensive (0.811). The bottom six industries were food and beverage (0.153), non-bank finance (0.212), coal (0.342), construction (0.348), real estate (0.362), and consumer services (0.415)[25][26][27] - The **GRU Factor Industry Rotation Model** utilizes GRU deep learning networks to analyze minute-level price and volume data. It has shown strong adaptability in short cycles but performs less effectively in long cycles. The model has been operational since 2021, achieving significant excess returns initially. However, in 2025, the model faced challenges in capturing excess returns due to concentrated market themes and speculative trading[31][37] - The **GRU Factor Industry Rotation Model** ranks industries weekly based on GRU factor values. As of September 26, 2025, the top six industries were steel (3.15), real estate (2.6), building materials (2.08), petroleum and petrochemicals (1.85), transportation (0.81), and electric power and utilities (0.01). The bottom six industries were computing (-32.91), media (-29.46), communication (-17.57), food and beverage (-13.4), pharmaceuticals (-13.36), and non-ferrous metals (-12.73)[6][13][32] - The **Diffusion Index Industry Rotation Model** achieved an average weekly return of -0.00%, with an excess return of 0.78% compared to the equal-weighted return of CICC primary industries. Since September, the model has recorded an excess return of -1.10%, and a year-to-date excess return of 3.68%[23][28] - The **GRU Factor Industry Rotation Model** recorded an average weekly return of -0.61%, with an excess return of 0.17% compared to the equal-weighted return of CICC primary industries. Since September, the model has achieved an excess return of 0.07%, and a year-to-date excess return of -7.53%[31][34]

证券研究报告：固定收益报告 发布时间：2025-09-28 研究所 分析师:梁伟超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523070001 Email:liangweichao@cnpsec.com 分析师:崔超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523120001 Email:cuichao@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《二永还能继续参与吗？——信用周 报 20250924》 - 2025.09.24 固收周报 沥青生产提速，原油铜价上行 ——高频数据跟踪 20250927 核心观点 风险提示 政策效果不及预期，流动性超预期收紧。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 高频经济数据关注点：第一，生产稳中有升，钢铁生产相对稳定， 沥青开工率升至近两年最高，财政支出进度或有所加速。第二，房地 产市场边际改善，商品房成交面积连续两周回升。第三，物价整体上 涨，原油、铜价格涨幅较大，黑色系焦煤、螺纹钢小幅下降，农产品 价格重回上行。第四，国内外运价指数走势分化，BDI 稳健上涨，SCFI 持续快速下行。第五，受台风等极端天气影响，执行航班量下降，粤 港澳地区降幅较大。短期重点关注反内卷及增量政策落地、 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within the next six months [9][15]. Core Insights - The company has a rich reserve of film and television projects, with a focus on the performance of films during the National Day holiday period. The first half of 2025 saw significant revenue growth, with a 114.95% year-on-year increase in operating income and a 65.06% increase in net profit attributable to shareholders [4][9]. - Despite a slowdown in revenue growth in Q2 2025 due to fewer releases, the company is expected to recover as it has a robust pipeline of projects, including several anticipated films and series [5][6]. Company Overview - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 9.27 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 176 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 151 billion yuan. The company has a debt-to-asset ratio of 28.0% and a price-to-earnings ratio of 71.31 [3][4]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating income of 790 million yuan, with a net profit of 118 million yuan. The second quarter saw a revenue of 204 million yuan, reflecting a 6.80% year-on-year growth, although net profit decreased by 38.31% [4][5]. - The company’s gross margin in Q2 2025 was 43.25%, down 12.79 percentage points year-on-year, while the expense ratio increased due to pre-launch promotional costs for key projects [5]. Business Development - The company is actively expanding into new business areas such as short dramas and animation, with a monthly production capacity of 20 short dramas as of the first half of 2025. It is also exploring international markets, achieving a 28.48% year-on-year increase in overseas revenue [6][7]. - The company is enhancing its AI service capabilities, with software and hardware developments expected to contribute to revenue growth in the future. In the first half of 2025, it generated 57 million yuan from its AI services [7][9]. Earnings Forecast - The company’s projected operating revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 3 billion yuan, 3.3 billion yuan, and 3.7 billion yuan, respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 449 million yuan, 504 million yuan, and 565 million yuan for the same years [11][14].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated steady growth in performance, with both revenue and profit showing positive growth in the first half of 2025. Revenue reached 7.453 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.38%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 312 million yuan, up 13.88% year-on-year [4]. - The company has a robust order backlog of approximately 34.5 billion yuan, with deliveries expected between 2025 and 2027. It has also made strides in international expansion, signing a global framework cooperation agreement with mining giant Rio Tinto [5]. - Profitability has improved, with a net profit margin of 4.19%, an increase of 0.28 percentage points year-on-year, despite a slight decrease in gross margin [5]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of 7.453 billion yuan, with various segments contributing positively: material handling equipment revenue was 2.322 billion yuan (+8.51%), new energy equipment revenue was 1.734 billion yuan (+21.45%), metallurgy equipment revenue was 1.948 billion yuan (+21.04%), and core components revenue was 1.014 billion yuan (+25.29%) [4]. - The company forecasts revenue for 2025-2027 to be 14.727 billion yuan, 15.782 billion yuan, and 16.770 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.12%, 7.17%, and 6.26% [6]. - The projected net profit for the same period is expected to be 649 million yuan, 752 million yuan, and 837 million yuan, reflecting growth rates of 30.35%, 15.87%, and 11.27% respectively [6]. Valuation Metrics - The company is currently trading at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 23.35, with projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 at 18.01, 15.54, and 13.96 respectively [3][6]. - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is projected to decrease from 1.59 in 2024 to 1.27 by 2027 [9].

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights China's commitment to climate action, with a new round of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC3.0) aiming for a 7%-10% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from peak levels by 2035, and a target for non-fossil energy consumption to exceed 30% of total energy consumption [4][5] - The report anticipates improvements in demand for green industries as countries update their NDCs ahead of COP30, with a focus on new technologies in the photovoltaic sector [6] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Basic Situation - The closing index is at 9725.34, with a 52-week high of 9725.34 and a low of 5804.61 [1] Investment Suggestions - The report suggests focusing on new technologies such as perovskite tandem cells and heterojunction technology, with specific companies like GCL-Poly Energy and Trina Solar recommended for investment [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The demand for VPD chips is driven by the upgrade of SSD interfaces and technological iterations, with a shift from SATA to PCIe and NVMe standards enhancing SSD performance [4] - The AI wave is creating incremental demand in the DDR5 SPD market, as AI servers require significantly more memory modules compared to traditional servers, thus injecting new growth momentum [5] - The company has rapidly increased its market share in the automotive-grade EEPROM sector, successfully introducing products to major global automotive electronics suppliers [7] Company Overview - Latest closing price: 131.96 CNY - Total shares: 1.58 billion; Total market value: 20.9 billion CNY - 52-week high/low: 131.96 CNY / 47.23 CNY - Debt-to-asset ratio: 6.2% - Price-to-earnings ratio: 71.72 [3] Financial Projections - Expected revenues for 2025-2027 are 1.38 billion, 1.80 billion, and 2.32 billion CNY respectively, with net profits of 0.45 billion, 0.63 billion, and 0.86 billion CNY [8] - Revenue growth rates are projected at 34.22%, 30.52%, and 28.86% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [10] - The company is expected to maintain a gross margin of approximately 57.5% to 57.8% over the forecast period [13]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Strongly Outperforming the Market" and is maintained [1]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the solid-state battery equipment sector as a key area for investment, emphasizing the growth potential and technological advancements within the industry [1]. - The report provides detailed insights into several leading companies in the solid-state battery equipment market, showcasing their revenue growth, market share, and technological capabilities [1]. Summary by Relevant Sections 1.1 XianDao Intelligent - XianDao Intelligent, established in 2002, is a leading global provider of intelligent manufacturing solutions for new energy [6]. - The company's revenue from 2020 to 2024 was 59, 100, 139, 166, and 119 billion yuan, with net profits of 7.68, 15.85, 23.18, 17.75, and 2.86 billion yuan respectively [6]. - In the first half of 2025, the revenue from lithium battery equipment was 45 billion yuan, accounting for 69% of total revenue, with a gross margin of approximately 39% from 2022 to 2024 [6][9]. - The company holds a 15.5% market share globally and 19.0% in China for lithium battery equipment [6]. 1.2 YingHe Technology - YingHe Technology, founded in 2006, specializes in lithium battery intelligent equipment and offers digital factory solutions [10]. - The company's revenue from 2020 to 2024 was 24, 52, 90, 98, and 85 billion yuan, with net profits of 1.91, 3.11, 4.87, 5.54, and 5.03 billion yuan respectively [10]. - In the first half of 2025, lithium battery equipment revenue was 28 billion yuan, making up 66% of total revenue, with a gross margin recovering to 18.5% [10]. 1.3 LiYuanHeng - LiYuanHeng, established in 2014, focuses on smart equipment for various industries, including solid-state batteries [20]. - The company's revenue from 2020 to 2024 was 14, 23, 42, 50, and 25 billion yuan, with net profits of 1.40, 2.12, 2.90, -1.88, and -10.44 billion yuan respectively [20]. - In the first half of 2025, lithium battery equipment revenue was 15 billion yuan, representing 81% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 27.1% [20]. 1.4 HongGong Technology - HongGong Technology, founded in 2008, specializes in automated material handling solutions [26]. - The company's revenue from 2020 to 2024 was 3, 6, 22, 32, and 21 billion yuan, with net profits of 0.66, 0.50, 2.98, 3.15, and 2.08 billion yuan respectively [26]. - In the first half of 2025, lithium battery equipment revenue was 6.88 billion yuan, accounting for 91% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 26.6% [26]. 1.5 HaiMuXing - HaiMuXing, established in 2008, focuses on laser and automation equipment for various industries [32]. - The company's revenue from 2020 to 2024 was 13, 20, 41, 48, and 45 billion yuan, with net profits of 0.77, 1.09, 3.80, 3.22, and -1.63 billion yuan respectively [32]. - In the first half of 2025, revenue from lithium battery laser and automation equipment was approximately 10 billion yuan, making up 59% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 10.0% [32]. 1.6 NaKonoer - NaKonoer, founded in 2000, specializes in high-precision roller pressing equipment and holds a 23.4% market share in China's lithium roller pressing equipment market [40]. - The company has developed various dry electrode production equipment and is advancing its solid-state battery production equipment [40]. 1.7 ManSiTe - ManSiTe, established in 2014, focuses on high-precision coating technology and has developed a dual-line product layout for solid-state batteries [43]. - The company has successfully delivered various solid-state battery equipment to clients, including dry multi-roller film systems and solid-state battery front-end lines [43].