Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the environmental protection and testing sector [9] Core Insights - As of June 28, 2025, there are 23 convertible bonds listed in the environmental protection and testing sector, with a total issuance scale of approximately 233.9 billion yuan and a latest balance of 192.0 billion yuan. The sector features several low-price and low-premium convertible bonds, suggesting potential investment opportunities driven by profitability and conversion [2][4][20] - The report recommends focusing on convertible bonds such as Wei 22, Wei 24, Green Power, Yingfeng, Hongcheng, Wangneng, and Guojian, highlighting their potential for price appreciation due to underlying stock performance [6][30] Summary by Sections Convertible Bonds Overview - The environmental protection and testing sector has 23 convertible bonds currently trading, with a total remaining scale of 192 billion yuan. Among these, 1 bond is from a central enterprise, 3 from local state-owned enterprises, and 19 from private enterprises [4][20] - There is 1 convertible bond currently in the issuance application stage, with a scale of 4.93 billion yuan from Shengjian Technology [24] Issued and Delisted Convertible Bonds - As of June 28, 2025, 21 convertible bonds have been delisted from the environmental protection and testing sector, with a total issuance scale of 152.9 billion yuan. Five bonds were delisted in 2024, with an average time to maturity of 1.08 years [5][26] Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes two main drivers for investment: profitability and conversion. Profitability can be enhanced through capacity expansion and exploring new growth avenues, which may lead to stock price increases and higher conversion values. If the premium rate of convertible bonds remains stable or decreases slightly, their prices are expected to rise [30][32] - Conversion may be driven by increased capital expenditures for new projects or weakened cash flow from existing projects, potentially leading to adjustments in conversion prices and indirectly boosting bond prices [30][32] Financial Projections - The report includes financial forecasts for several companies in the sector, indicating expected growth in net profits and corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for the years 2024 to 2027 [31]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Since mid - June this year, the bond market has been in a consolidation phase, approaching key levels. To break through downward, more impetus is needed, and one possible path is the restart of central bank's treasury bond trading, but it is expected to be postponed. The earliest restart may be around August [2][6][12]. - The central bank's purchase of treasury bonds can directly replenish liquidity, with simultaneous increases in claims on the government and government deposits. The short - term yield declined rapidly after the central bank started trading treasury bonds last August, opening up downward space for the long - term yield [8][20]. - When the central bank's short - term treasury bonds mature, it does not directly lead to a contraction in liquidity. Instead, it indirectly affects liquidity by reducing government deposits. The central bank is not expected to renew them urgently [24]. - Currently, the bond market is over - valued, and the long - term yield may be below the central bank's desirable range. It is recommended to allocate 10 - year treasury bonds around a yield of 1.65% when there are adjustments, and pay attention to the callback risk if the yield falls to 1.6% [2][34]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 When Will the Central Bank Restart Treasury Bond Trading? - Since mid - June, the bond market has been in a consolidation phase. The 10 - year treasury bond yield has been fluctuating around 1.65%, and the 30 - year around 1.85%. The 1 - year yield has decreased by 4bp from June 13 - 26. The 20 - year yield has dropped 3.5bp and remains a relative convex point on the curve. To break through downward, more impetus is needed, and the restart of treasury bond trading is one possible path [12]. 3.2 The Central Bank's Treasury Bond Trading Directly Releases Liquidity - From August to December last year, the central bank announced a cumulative net purchase of 1 trillion yuan of treasury bonds. By combining direct purchase and borrowing - and - selling methods, the estimated cumulative net purchase from August to December 2024 was close to 900 billion yuan. As of June 28 this year, the central bank has suspended treasury bond trading, and the cumulative maturity of treasury bonds from January to May was about 444 billion yuan [8][14]. - The central bank's purchase of treasury bonds can directly replenish liquidity. First, commercial banks buy treasury bonds, causing a decline in "other depository financial institution deposits" and an increase in government deposits. Then, the central bank buys from commercial banks in the secondary market, leading to an increase in claims on the government and a recovery of other depository financial institution deposits [20]. - After the central bank started trading treasury bonds in August last year, the short - term yield declined rapidly, and the 1 - year yield and DR007 inverted. In September, the short - term yield dropped by 12.2bp, followed by 10 - year yield declines of 12.7bp in November and 34.5bp in December [8][20]. 3.3 The Maturity of Central Bank - Held Treasury Bonds Does Not Directly Affect Liquidity and May Not Require Immediate Renewal - When treasury bonds held by the central bank mature, it leads to a reduction in both claims on the government and government deposits, resulting in a balance - sheet contraction. The maturity of short - term treasury bonds does not directly contract liquidity but indirectly affects it by reducing government deposits. Therefore, the central bank is not expected to renew them urgently [24]. 3.4 The Restart of Central Bank's Treasury Bond Trading May Still Need to Wait - The central bank suspended treasury bond trading in January this year, mainly considering two points: the fiscal supply situation and whether the treasury bond yield is within the central bank's desirable range. The central bank will resume operations based on market supply - demand and yield changes [28]. - From the perspective of fiscal supply rhythm, the restart of central bank's treasury bond trading may be postponed. August and November are expected to be key points for liquidity disturbances in the second half of this year, with estimated net financing exceeding 900 billion and 800 billion respectively. Therefore, the earliest restart may be around August [29]. 3.5 More Marginal Changes Are Needed for Interest Rates to Break Through Downward - Currently, the bond market has a high winning probability but low odds, with over - valuation and long - term yields potentially below the central bank's desirable range. The 10 - year treasury bond yield fit value is significantly higher than the current 1.65% level. It is recommended to allocate 10 - year treasury bonds around a yield of 1.65% when there are adjustments, and pay attention to the callback risk if the yield falls to 1.6% [34].

丨证券研究报告丨 战略数据研究丨专题报告 [Table_Title] 数字货币领涨主题，单周涨超 13%——W115 市 场观察 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 当周基金重仓跑赢北向重仓，非基金重仓领涨；市场动速方面，行业、风格轮动均小幅提速； 行业板块方面，TMT 板块涨幅居前；风格方面，高贝塔、高波领涨，超小盘显著占优；主题方 面，数字货币领涨，单周涨超 13%。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 陈洁敏 SAC：S0490518120005 SFC：BUT348 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 数字货币领涨主题，单周涨超 2] 13%——W115 市 场观察 战略数据研究丨专题报告 [Table_Summary2] 机构赚钱效应：基金重仓跑赢北向重仓，非基金重仓领涨 市场动速：行业、风格轮动均小幅提速 行业板块：TMT 板块涨幅居前 风格跟踪：高贝塔、高波领涨，超小盘显著占优 主题热点：数字货币领涨，单周涨超 13% 指数名称及代码 高贝塔指数 861 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the solid-state battery sector [5]. Core Insights - Solid-state batteries, particularly sulfide-based ones, are viewed as ideal solutions due to their high safety and performance, but face significant scientific challenges in scaling up production [12][18]. - The production process for solid-state batteries differs from traditional lithium-ion batteries, with a focus on dry processing techniques and enhanced sealing in assembly [12][13]. - The industry is witnessing a shift towards innovative materials and processes, such as the use of lithium sulfide and iron-based current collectors, which address existing limitations in battery performance and safety [24][28]. Summary by Sections Manufacturing and Equipment - The production process for solid-state batteries involves distinct steps, including dry electrode preparation and high-pressure formation, which enhance the overall production efficiency [11][12]. - The dry electrode process is crucial for solid-state batteries, as it minimizes the risk of hydrogen sulfide generation during production [13][16]. Cost Reduction - The industrialization of lithium sulfide faces challenges related to its stability, high-cost raw materials, and safety concerns during production [18][19]. - The report outlines various synthesis methods for lithium sulfide, highlighting their advantages and disadvantages, which impact the overall cost structure of solid-state batteries [19]. Material Innovations - The use of iron-based current collectors is gaining traction due to their potential to mitigate corrosion issues associated with traditional copper foils in solid-state batteries [24]. - The report discusses advancements in skeleton-based membranes for solid-state batteries, which enhance ionic conductivity and battery lifespan [28][29]. Iteration and Market Trends - The solid-state battery market is evolving with the introduction of high-nickel and lithium-rich manganese-based cathodes, which are expected to benefit from increased market penetration [36]. - The copper foil industry is undergoing restructuring, with new technologies being developed to meet the demands of solid-state battery applications [41].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the electrolytic aluminum industry is expected to experience a significant wave of dividends due to years of tight balance, abundant cash flow, balance sheet repair, and reduced capital expenditures [4][10][63] - The demand for aluminum is characterized by strong resilience, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.7% from 1955 to 2024, surpassing that of copper and steel [10][70] - Supply bottlenecks in aluminum production are primarily related to electricity, with overseas investment costs being more than double that of domestic projects, leading to concerns about production continuity [10][63] - The high profitability of electrolytic aluminum is expected to be sustained due to an oversupply of alumina and declining coal and electricity prices [10][63] Industry Overview - The report highlights that aluminum is a scarce resource with significant dividend potential, as the industry has maintained a tight balance for years, leading to improved cash flow and reduced debt ratios [10][63] - The demand for aluminum is driven by its functional, structural, and consumer properties, with diverse applications across various sectors [10][65][70] - The report notes that the global aluminum demand has shown strong growth, particularly in new energy vehicles, photovoltaic applications, and industrial upgrades, effectively offsetting declines in traditional real estate demand [10][71] Investment Strategy - The report suggests that companies with high dividend yields and strong operational resilience, such as China Hongqiao and Tianshan Aluminum, are well-positioned for investment [11][14] - It draws parallels with the coal industry, where high cash dividends and valuation re-evaluations have led to significant stock price increases, indicating a similar potential for the aluminum sector [9][39] - The report indicates that the capital expenditure in the aluminum sector is decreasing, which, combined with improved cash flow, enhances the ability to sustain and increase dividends [10][46][48]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the agricultural products sector [11]. Core Insights - The pig farming industry has entered a clearing phase since 2021, with capital expenditure from large enterprises continuing to contract, leading to a recovery trend in industry ROE levels. Current industry capacity remains relatively excessive, and if policies are effectively implemented, it is expected to enhance profitability and stability in the sector. Attention should be paid to investment opportunities in leading enterprises [2][6][9]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The pig farming industry is in a mature stage, characterized by a significant increase in the scale of operations over the past 20 years. The proportion of large-scale farms (over 500 heads) has risen from 8.8% in 2000 to 70% in 2024, indicating a shift towards concentration and professionalization in the industry [7][16]. Policy Impact - Recent policies have emphasized capacity control and high-quality development. The current breeding sow inventory exceeds the normal level of 39 million heads, indicating an oversupply in the industry. The government has been proactive in promoting capacity control through various policy documents [30][31]. Trends and Investment Opportunities - The report identifies two major trends in the pig farming industry: 1. An expected increase in industry ROE levels with reduced volatility, highlighting the advantages of quality enterprises. The average ROE is projected to rise from -10% in 2021 to 21% in 2024 [9][45]. 2. An increase in free cash flow levels, leading to significant shareholder returns for quality enterprises. The industry is expected to generate a total free cash flow of 23 billion yuan in 2024, a 100% increase year-on-year [54][60]. Recommended Companies - The report specifically recommends investing in leading companies in the sector, including Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, Juxing Agriculture, and Shennong Group, as their valuations are currently at historical lows [2][9].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [7] Core Viewpoints - The current decline in silicon material prices is primarily due to the reduction in industrial silicon prices and lower electricity costs during the abundant water period, leading to expectations of increased operating rates among some companies. However, demand remains uncertain due to the end of domestic rush installations and the summer holiday in Europe. It is believed that silicon material prices are nearing the bottom cash cost, and further declines are limited. Recent policies such as green electricity direct connection and photovoltaic sand control have been introduced, which may accelerate industry recovery [2][4][5] Summary by Sections Silicon Material Price Trends - As of April 2025, silicon material prices have been continuously declining, with the latest average prices for N-type and dense materials at 34,000 and 32,000 yuan/ton respectively. The industry faces significant profit pressure [4][17] - The decline in silicon material prices is attributed to the drop in industrial silicon prices, which currently stand at 8,750 yuan/ton in Xinjiang, down 300 yuan/ton since the beginning of the year. The average price for industrial silicon in Q2 2025 decreased by 170 yuan/ton compared to Q1 2025 [19][21] Future Outlook - It is anticipated that silicon material prices are close to the cash cost of leading enterprises, indicating limited further decline potential. The cash cost for leading enterprises in Q1 2025 was 27,000 yuan/ton, and even with the recent drop in industrial silicon prices, the optimal cash cost for non-Southwest region capacities remains around 25,000 yuan/ton. The strong willingness to maintain prices is evident as companies face significant losses [5][33] - The second half of the year is expected to see favorable policies, with leading enterprises beginning to form a coalition. Recent policies aimed at supporting the photovoltaic industry, such as the green electricity direct connection and photovoltaic sand control, are likely to promote healthy industry development [5][37] Market Dynamics - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a dual bottom in terms of fundamentals and market sentiment, with policy support and technological iterations expected to accelerate industry clearing. The demand is expected to become clearer in June and July, and if supply and prices do not improve by December, the likelihood of policy interventions to provide relief is expected to increase [40]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the defense and military industry [3]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the innovation in new combat forces and the importance of system integration in the defense sector, highlighting the growth potential in various sub-sectors such as aerospace electronics, unmanned systems, underwater defense, and data link technologies [8][10][37]. Summary by Sections Aerospace Electronics - The company, Aerospace Electric, is backed by the Aerospace Jiangnan Group and focuses on high-tech products in the aerospace and defense electronics sector. It has become a significant player in the industry, with over 70% of its products sold to high-end clients in aerospace and military sectors [12][21]. - The company has established a cross-regional, group-based structure to enhance its R&D, production, and sales capabilities, ensuring high-quality development [16][21]. Unmanned Systems - Unmanned systems have transitioned from the periphery to the center of modern warfare, with drones playing a crucial role in military operations. The report outlines the evolution of drones and their increasing complexity and autonomy [40][41]. - The modern drone ecosystem includes various types, from consumer drones to advanced stealth combat drones, reflecting significant technological advancements [42][43]. Underwater Defense - Unmanned Underwater Vehicles (UUVs) are highlighted as a new class of equipment with diverse applications and high autonomy. The report notes that the U.S. military's UUV market could exceed $50 billion over the next decade [74][81]. - UUVs are characterized by their stealth, cost-effectiveness, and support for distributed operations, making them a vital component of modern naval strategies [81][86]. Data Link Technologies - The report discusses the importance of data link technologies in enhancing operational connectivity and efficiency in military operations, emphasizing the need for continuous technological upgrades [8][37]. Market Potential - The report estimates that the Chinese military drone market could exceed 40 billion yuan by 2028, driven by increasing demand for various types of drones, including medium and large military drones [64][66].

Metal Sector - China Hongqiao's net profit forecast for 2024 is CNY 223.72 billion, with a PE ratio of 6.78[12] - Luoyang Molybdenum's net profit forecast for 2025 is CNY 167.43 billion, with a PE ratio of 10.42[12] Building Materials Sector - China National Materials' net profit forecast for 2025 is CNY 18.54 billion, with a PE ratio of 16.65[12] - Keda Manufacturing's net profit forecast for 2025 is CNY 17.24 billion, with a PE ratio of 10.82[12] - Three Trees' revenue compound growth rate from 2015 to 2018 was approximately 33%[40] Transportation Sector - SF Holding's net profit forecast for 2025 is CNY 117.44 billion, with a PE ratio of 20.58[12] - The company has seen a significant increase in daily package handling, reaching an average of 166 packages per courier in 2024[56] Chemical Sector - Yara International's net profit forecast for 2025 is CNY 22.52 billion, with a PE ratio of 12.30[12] - Ba Tian's net profit forecast for 2025 is CNY 12.84 billion, with a PE ratio of 7.59[12] Financial Performance - The overall net profit for Keda Manufacturing is projected to reach CNY 19.0 billion by 2026, with a significant increase in overseas revenue contributing to growth[31]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the expected acceleration in the approval of ultra-high voltage (UHV) projects in the second half of 2025, with several key transmission corridors likely to be approved [10][15] - The current pace of construction for UHV direct current projects is increasing, with several projects nearing completion and others in the early stages of construction [15][16] - The report highlights a significant potential for equipment bidding in the second half of 2025, estimating a total bidding volume of approximately 55 billion yuan, with a substantial portion allocated for UHV converter valve equipment [28][30] Summary by Sections UHV Project Approvals - The 2025 National Energy Work Conference proposed the active promotion of several UHV transmission corridors, indicating a likely increase in project approvals in the latter half of 2025 [10] - Currently, only two projects have received approval, but expectations are high for a surge in approvals later in the year [10][15] UHV Direct Current Projects - Several UHV direct current projects are nearing completion, with the Jinshang-Hubei and Longdong-Shandong projects already operational [15] - Projects such as the Ningxia-Hunan and Shaanxi-Anhui are in advanced stages of construction, with expectations for operational readiness by 2026 [15][16] UHV Alternating Current Projects - The report notes that UHV alternating current projects are also in a peak construction phase, with several projects expected to commence in 2025 [16][18] Equipment Bidding Trends - In the first half of 2025, equipment bidding has been relatively low, totaling 2.48 billion yuan, while material bidding reached 17.87 billion yuan [25] - The report anticipates a rapid increase in bidding activity in the second half of 2025, driven by the approval of multiple UHV projects [28][30] Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the UHV equipment market remains concentrated, with leading companies expected to benefit from increased order volumes as the market expands [35]