Investment Rating - The investment rating for Shanghai Bank is "Accumulate" [9] Core Views - The governance structure reform of Shanghai Bank is expected to initiate a cycle of efficiency improvement, with a strong dividend capability and willingness, projecting dividend yields of 5.3% and 5.7% for 2025 and 2026 respectively. The current convertible bond balance is approximately 20 billion, with the stock price 15% away from the strong redemption price of the convertible bonds. The projected price-to-book (PB) ratios for 2025 and 2026 are 0.56x and 0.52x, respectively, indicating a low valuation among banks in the Yangtze River Delta region. If the fundamentals improve as expected, there is potential for significant valuation recovery, leading to a long-term positive outlook [2][6][13]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2025, Shanghai Bank achieved stable growth with a revenue increase of 3.4% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders growing by 2.7%. The performance was stable despite a high base of investment income in Q4 2024 [6][12]. - The new management team, which took office in 2025, has outlined strategic plans and goals for the new period, focusing on organizational restructuring and efficiency improvements [6][12]. Credit Growth and Asset Quality - Credit growth is expected to rebound to around 5% in 2026, following a period of structural adjustment and efficiency improvements post-reform. The focus will remain on corporate loans, particularly in key sectors such as municipal projects and state-owned enterprises [13][14]. - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio was stable at 1.18% at the end of 2025, with a provision coverage ratio of 245%. The bank is accelerating the disposal of existing retail loan risks, with significant write-offs in the first half of 2025 [13][14]. Interest Income and Revenue Growth - The net interest margin is expected to stabilize, supporting interest income growth. The net interest margin for the first half of 2025 was 1.15%, with expectations for further improvement as high-interest deposits mature [13][14]. - Overall revenue growth is projected to recover in 2026, driven by both interest and non-interest income, particularly in wealth management and agency business [13][14]. Valuation and Market Position - The current stock price is 9.65 yuan, with a total share capital of approximately 1.42 billion shares. The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 5.46 for 2026, indicating a favorable valuation compared to peers [10][27]. - The bank's dividend per share is expected to increase to 0.55 yuan in 2026, with a dividend yield of 5.66% [27].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [9] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 154.7 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 13.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.02 billion yuan, down 74.6% year-on-year. The net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 170 million yuan, a decline of 93.1% year-on-year. Despite the cyclical pressures reflected in the performance over the past few years, the company has maintained a certain level of profitability. As the cycle adjusts into the second half, there is potential for performance to bottom out and recover. The company’s sales ranking improved to fourth in the industry, with a significant improvement in land acquisition intensity and a continued focus on core cities, maintaining strong operational performance and competitive strength [2][12][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company experienced a significant decline in investment income, which decreased by 81.8% to 710 million yuan, primarily due to reduced profits from cooperative projects. The gross margin continued to decline, and while impairment losses decreased, they remained substantial, putting pressure on performance. The revenue performance is expected to remain under pressure in the short term, but the gross margin is at a bottom range. Based on international experience and the current cycle position, the decline in housing prices is expected to narrow, leading to a continued decrease in impairment losses. Overall, performance is expected to bottom out and recover, with significant elasticity if the industry experiences a turning point [12][6]. Sales and Market Position - In 2025, the company achieved sales of 196 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.6%, which was better than the industry average. The sales ranking improved by one position to fourth in the industry, with an average selling price increase of 16.8% to 27,370 yuan per square meter. The land acquisition amount reached 93.8 billion yuan, an increase of 92.8%, with an average acquisition price of 21,293 yuan per square meter, down 1.5%. The land acquisition intensity improved significantly to 48%, with nearly 90% of investments focused on ten core cities, including 63% in first-tier cities. The company’s investment strategy emphasizes focusing on core areas and selecting projects carefully, which is expected to enhance the profit realization capability of new projects [12][6]. Financial Health - The company maintained a reasonable leverage level, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 64.17% and a net debt ratio of 72.46% at the end of 2025. The cash-to-short-term debt ratio was 1.19, with short-term debt accounting for 23%. Although leverage levels increased, they remained within a reasonable range, and operating cash flow remained positive. The company raised 17.94 billion yuan in public market financing, with interest rates at the lower end of the industry range. The average financing cost at year-end was 2.74%, down 25 basis points from the beginning of the year, maintaining a leading position in the industry [12][6]. Business Development - The company’s asset management business showed steady growth, with total income from managed properties reaching 7.63 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.2%. The company has established three listed REITs platforms and has created exit channels in major operational areas such as commercial, office, industrial parks, and apartments. In 2025, the company initiated the second purchase of infrastructure projects for the Bosera Shekou Industrial Park REIT, continuously releasing the value of existing assets. The urban service business achieved revenue of 19.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.2%, with net profit attributable to shareholders growing by 8.3% after excluding the impact of disposed projects, and the managed area reached 377 million square meters [12][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [2]. Core Insights - The report identifies four major trends in the connector industry during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, focusing on computing power, new energy vehicles, commercial aerospace, and military trade [4][20][30][39]. Summary by Sections Computing Power - Copper interconnects can meet transmission needs within 7 meters in data centers, with a significant increase in demand driven by AI cluster growth and bandwidth requirements [6][8]. - The transition from CPU-centric to GPU-centric architectures has shifted the bottleneck from computation to data interconnect capabilities, necessitating a multi-layer interconnect structure within data centers [10]. New Energy Vehicles - The report highlights a shift towards high-voltage, high-speed, and integrated connector solutions in new energy vehicles, with current usage of high-voltage connectors ranging from 6 to 15 pairs per passenger vehicle and 12 to 45 pairs per commercial vehicle [22][26]. - The market for high-speed connectors is expected to grow rapidly, driven by the increasing data transmission needs of advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) and the rise of intelligent connected vehicles [26]. Commercial Aerospace - The commercial aerospace sector is moving towards miniaturization, lightweight designs, and high integration of connectors, with a projected increase in satellite launches and the development of reusable rocket technologies [33][35]. - The demand for connectors is expected to rise due to the electrification of aerospace systems and the need for high-bandwidth, low-latency connections for satellite communications [38]. Military Trade - The report notes a shift in military trade, particularly in air defense systems, from optional to essential configurations, driven by geopolitical tensions and the need for multi-layered defense architectures [41][44]. - Recent military sales approvals indicate a growing demand for integrated air defense systems, highlighting the importance of cost-effective solutions to counter emerging threats [44].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) industry [10]. Core Insights - SAF is a key solution for decarbonizing the aviation sector, with lifecycle carbon emissions reduced by over 65% compared to traditional jet fuel. The industry is entering a rapid development phase, driven by regulations such as the EU's ReFuelEU Aviation, which mandates blending ratios of 2% by 2025, 6% by 2030, and 70% by 2050 [6][18]. - Four main pathways for SAF production are identified: HEFA (Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids), AtJ (Alcohol-to-Jet), FT (Fischer-Tropsch), and PtL (Power-to-Liquid), each with unique characteristics and potential for scaling [6][18]. Summary by Sections HEFA (Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids) - HEFA is the most commercially viable and mature technology, utilizing waste oils and hydrogen as core raw materials. The process requires 1.4 tons of waste oil and 54 kg of hydrogen per ton of jet fuel, with waste oil costs accounting for 71% of total production costs [7][20]. - Companies like Zhuoyue New Energy and ST Jiaao are positioned well in the market due to their access to waste oil resources [22]. AtJ (Alcohol-to-Jet) - AtJ relies on non-food ethanol and cellulose ethanol, with projects like the one by Jiaze New Energy producing green methanol and ethanol from agricultural waste [8][24]. FT (Fischer-Tropsch) - FT technology offers significant scalability due to its diverse raw material sources, converting syngas into long-chain hydrocarbons [8][30]. PtL (Power-to-Liquid) - PtL aims for near-zero emissions by coupling renewable electricity with CO2 capture, focusing on reducing costs of green electricity and hydrogen production [8][30]. Economic Viability - HEFA shows superior short-term economics, with projected production costs by 2050 estimated at $1,070 per ton, compared to $1,426 for G+FT, $1,621 for AtJ, and $1,259 for PtL [9][29]. - Investment recommendations include focusing on companies with established production capabilities and those involved in the supply of UCO for HEFA processes [33].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Insights - The company has optimized its capacity significantly, leading to a notable reduction in costs. The Q4 brokerage business has shown a marginal improvement in profit margins, while the leasing business has been profitable for the entire year, and losses in home decoration have narrowed. Future profit improvements are anticipated if policies are implemented or if the market stabilizes [2][8]. - The company reported a revenue of 94.6 billion yuan in 2025, representing a 1.2% increase, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.99 billion yuan, down 26.3%. The adjusted net profit was 5.02 billion yuan, down 30.3%. In Q4 2025, revenue was 22.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 28.7%, with a net profit of 90 million yuan, down 84.6% [4][8]. - The company has a strong cash position and has executed significant share buybacks and dividends, totaling over 1.2 billion USD, resulting in a comprehensive return rate exceeding 6% [2][4]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company achieved a total revenue of 94.6 billion yuan in 2025, with a slight increase of 1.2%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 26.3% to 2.99 billion yuan, and the adjusted net profit fell by 30.3% to 5.02 billion yuan [4][8]. - In Q4 2025, the company reported a revenue of 22.2 billion yuan, down 28.7%, and a net profit of 90 million yuan, down 84.6% [4][8]. Business Performance - The company has focused on optimizing its capacity, resulting in a significant reduction in costs. The brokerage business has shown a marginal improvement in profit margins, while the leasing business has been profitable throughout the year, and losses in home decoration have decreased [2][8]. - The company’s gross transaction value (GTV) decreased by 5.0% to 3.2 trillion yuan, with the existing and new housing businesses declining by 4.2% and 8.2%, respectively [8]. Shareholder Returns - The company has declared approximately 300 million USD in dividends and has repurchased 920 million USD worth of shares, leading to a total return of about 1.2 billion USD, which is over a 9% increase year-on-year [4][8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Insights - The company has recently made an external investment, acquiring a 30% stake in Shanghai Fengxing Zhiyuan Technology Co., Ltd., which focuses on edge computing storage and acceleration modules, utilizing the ultra-converged chip STAR2000 for integrated storage, computing, and transmission with very low power consumption [2][6]. - The edge computing sector is becoming a core component of new infrastructure, driven by national strategies such as "East Data West Computing," with significant potential for growth in applications across various industries including energy, transportation, and smart cities [10]. - The company plans to establish a joint venture in robotics in 2025, which is expected to create a new growth curve by enhancing efficiency and reducing labor costs in the inspection services industry [10]. - The company's main business has shown steady revenue and profit growth, with a notable increase in revenue growth rate in Q3 2025, achieving a year-on-year revenue increase of 22.2% [10]. - The operating cash flow has improved year-on-year, with Q3 2025 showing a net cash flow of 0.67 billion, a 21% increase compared to the previous year [10]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 8.08 billion, 9.29 billion, and 10.66 billion respectively, with corresponding net profits of 1.96 billion, 2.34 billion, and 2.78 billion, reflecting growth rates of 11.4%, 15.0%, and 14.7% [10]. Summary by Sections Recent Developments - The company has invested in Shanghai Fengxing Zhiyuan Technology Co., Ltd., acquiring a 30% stake, focusing on edge computing solutions [2][6]. Business Performance - In Q1-Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 5.97 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 8.3% and a net profit of 1.55 billion, also up 8.3% [10]. - Revenue growth rates for Q1, Q2, and Q3 were -8.0%, +10.5%, and +22.2% respectively, indicating a significant recovery in Q3 [10]. Financial Projections - Expected revenues for 2025-2027 are 8.08 billion, 9.29 billion, and 10.66 billion, with net profits projected at 1.96 billion, 2.34 billion, and 2.78 billion [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is in a pattern of increasing supply and demand, and it is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will continue to fluctuate. The resumption of production at Ningde Jianxiawo Mine is highly anticipated, and the import volume of lithium salts from South America is expected to increase significantly. The export ban in Zimbabwe and the mining permit risks in Yichun continue to cause supply disturbances, while the production of lithium from ore is increasing due to profit restoration, leading to an upward shift in the cost center [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly View Supply Situation - According to Baichuan Yingfu statistics, last week's lithium carbonate output increased by 645 tons week - on - week to 24,365 tons, and the output in February decreased by 17.6% month - on - month. The Ningde Jianxiawo Mine has not resumed production, Zimbabwe's Ministry of Mines announced a suspension of all exports of raw ore and lithium concentrate, and there are still disturbances in Yichun's mining permits. In the third quarter, Australian mines achieved cost control, and there is extremely limited room for further cost reduction. From January to February 2026, the total import volume of spodumene in China was approximately 1.39 million tons. In February, China imported 26,427 tons of lithium carbonate, a 2% decrease month - on - month and a 114% increase year - on - year. The CIF price of imported spodumene concentrate remained unchanged week - on - week, and the weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate smelting rose to about 57% [4]. Demand Situation - In March, the overall production schedule increased month - on - month, and the industry chain is in a pattern of strong supply and demand. In February, the combined production of power and energy - storage batteries in China was 141.6 GWh, a 15.7% decrease month - on - month and a 41.3% increase year - on - year. The combined export of power and energy - storage batteries was 23.9 GWh, a 0.9% decrease month - on - month and a 13.2% increase year - on - year. The sales volume of power and energy - storage batteries was 113.2 GWh, a 23.9% decrease month - on - month and a 25.7% increase year - on - year. Policy - side new energy vehicle purchase tax is also expected to continue to support the rapid growth of China's new energy vehicle market sales [5]. Inventory Situation - This week, lithium carbonate inventory showed a destocking state. Factory inventory increased by 635 tons, market inventory increased by 1,597 tons, and futures inventory decreased by 2,085 tons [5]. Strategy Suggestions - From the supply side, the Ningde Jianxiawo Mine is still shut down, and there are still risks in Yichun's mining permits. In February, China's domestic lithium carbonate output decreased by 17.6% month - on - month, the import of lithium concentrate was 558,000 tons, a 33% decrease month - on - month, and the total import of lithium carbonate was approximately 26,000 tons, a 1.6% decrease month - on - month and a 114% increase year - on - year. The downstream demand for export is strong, and it is expected that the subsequent import of lithium salts from South America will supplement the supply. From the demand side, the industry chain is in a pattern of strong supply and demand. The resumption of production at the Ningde Jianxiawo Mine is highly anticipated, and the import volume of lithium salts is expected to increase significantly. The export ban in Zimbabwe and the mining permit risks in Yichun continue to exist, supply disturbances persist, lithium production from ore continues to increase under the background of profit restoration, and the cost center moves up. The expectation of the resumption of production at the Ningde Jianxiawo Mine rises, the shipment of lithium salts from South America increases, inventory continues to decline, and attention should be paid to the progress of Zimbabwe's export ban and mining - end disturbances in Yichun [6]. 3.2 Key Data Tracking - The document provides multiple data graphs, including the spot tax - inclusive average price of lithium carbonate, weekly and monthly production of lithium carbonate, weekly and monthly inventory of lithium carbonate, average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate, monthly factory inventory of lithium carbonate, average price of imported lithium concentrate, production of power and other batteries, production of lithium carbonate from different raw materials in February 2026, difference between domestic power battery production and loading volume, monthly production of lithium iron phosphate, average production cost of lithium carbonate, monthly production of ternary materials, import volume of spodumene, average price of power - type lithium iron phosphate, import volume of lithium carbonate, and market price of ternary material 8 - series NCA type [8][9][11] etc.

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed's March FOMC meeting kept interest rates unchanged, Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, crude oil prices continued to rise, and the market expected no rate cuts this year, leading to a correction in precious metal prices. The mid - term price centers of gold and silver are expected to move up, and the prices of platinum and palladium are expected to have support below but still face short - term adjustment pressure. It is recommended to wait and see and trade cautiously. [7][10][12] Group 3: Summary by Directory 01. Market Review - Due to the Fed's 3 - month interest rate hold, Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz, rising crude oil prices and the market's expectation of no rate cuts this year, the gold price corrected. As of last Friday, the price of US gold was reported at $4492 per ounce, down 10.6% for the week. The upper resistance level is $4700, and the lower support level is $4300 [7] - The silver price also corrected under the same factors, with a weekly decline of 15.9% as of last Friday. It was reported at $67.8 per ounce, with a lower support level of $63 and an upper resistance level of $76 [10] 02. Weekly Viewpoints - The Fed's 3 - month interest rate hold, Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz, rising crude oil prices and the market's expectation of no rate cuts this year led to a correction in precious metal prices. The mid - term price centers of gold and silver are expected to move up. The platinum and palladium lease rates remain relatively high, and their prices are expected to have support below but face short - term adjustment pressure. It is recommended to wait and see and trade cautiously [12][14] 03. Overseas Macroeconomic Indicators - The report presents data and trends on the US dollar index, euro - US dollar exchange rate, pound - US dollar exchange rate, real interest rates, US Treasury yields, inflation expectations, yield spreads, and the Fed's balance - sheet size [16][18][20] 04. Important Economic Data of the Week - The US February PPI annual rate was 3.4%, higher than the expected 2.9% and the previous value of 2.9% [26] - The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending March 14 was 205,000, lower than the expected 215,000 and the previous value of 213,000 [26] 05. Important Macroeconomic Events and Policies of the Week - The Fed's FOMC kept the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% - 3.75% in March, and the latest dot - plot shows one expected rate cut this year, while the market previously expected two [27] - The US February PPI rose 0.7% month - on - month, higher than the expected 0.3% and the previous value of 0.5%, and the year - on - year increase reached 3.4%, a one - year high [27] 06. Inventory - This week, the COMEX gold inventory decreased by 15,467.36 kg to 997,000.15 kg, and the SHFE gold inventory increased by 1,428 kg to 106,845 kg [14][29] - The COMEX silver inventory decreased by 280,800.97 kg to 10,347,986.85 kg, and the SHFE silver inventory increased by 35,929 kg to 362,495 kg [14][29] 07. Fund Holdings - As of March 17, the CFTC speculative fund net long position in gold was 163,351 contracts, a decrease of 2,328 contracts from last week [14][33] - The CFTC speculative fund net long position in silver was 21,036 contracts, a decrease of 2,700 contracts from last week [14][33] 08. Key Points to Watch This Week - On Tuesday, March 24, at 21:45, the preliminary value of the US SPGI manufacturing PMI for March will be released [35] - On Thursday, March 26, at 20:30, the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending March 21 will be released [35]

- The report focuses on the investment value of the CSI All Index Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Index (930910.CSI), which is a secondary industry index under the CSI All Index series, reflecting the overall performance of the agriculture sector in the A-share market[39][40][42] - The index adopts a fully replicated method to construct the investment portfolio, aiming to minimize tracking deviation and annualized tracking error, with a target of absolute daily tracking deviation not exceeding 0.2% and annualized tracking error not exceeding 2%[9][89] - The index's sample adjustment rules include semi-annual adjustments implemented on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December each year, and temporary adjustments in special circumstances such as delisting or corporate restructuring[41][45] - The weighting and weight rules use adjusted market capitalization weighting, with a single stock weight cap of 15%, and the top two weighted stocks are highly concentrated[46][47] - The index's industry distribution is characterized by "core focus and diversified collaboration," with a significant tilt towards two popular sub-sectors: pig farming (47.41%) and seed planting (15.52%), reflecting the core value and investment potential of these sectors[51][52] - The index demonstrates strong cyclical attributes, with a long-term annualized return exceeding 12% over the past 20 years, significantly outperforming broader indices like the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300[67][68] - The agriculture sector's valuation is currently in a low-to-neutral range, with a PE-TTM of 24.56x as of March 2026, corresponding to a historical percentile of 27.06%, providing a certain safety margin[76][85]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: Hold short positions when prices are high [2] - Aluminum: Allocate long positions at low levels [2] - Alumina: Conduct long trades [2] - Aluminum alloy: Allocate long positions at low levels [2] - Zinc: Close short positions at low prices [2] - Lead: Hold short positions moderately when prices are high [2] - Nickel: Go long at low prices [3] - Stainless steel: Go long at low prices [3] - Tin: Trade within the range [3] - Industrial silicon: Hold long positions moderately or wait and see at low prices [3] - Polysilicon: Wait and see [3] - Lithium carbonate: Wait and see [3] 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - factors this week have an increasing reverse impact on copper prices. Copper prices break through the lower limit under pressure in the high - level range. Although there is support from domestic inventory reduction and the approaching consumption season, there are still downward risks due to factors such as geopolitical conflicts, inflation, and high inventory [2]. - Aluminum prices experience a high - level decline and overall wide - range fluctuations. The supply side has some disturbances, and the demand side is gradually entering the peak season, but is also affected by price fluctuations. It is recommended to wait for the market sentiment to stabilize before entering the market to arrange long positions [2]. - Zinc prices decline rapidly and then stabilize. The supply of zinc concentrate is tight, the demand recovery is slow, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2]. - Lead prices show a downward trend in oscillation. The inventory decreases, but the supply and demand sides are affected by price changes. It is advisable to hold short positions moderately when prices are high [2]. - Nickel prices are supported at the ore end but are restricted by macro factors. The inventory continues to accumulate, and it is recommended to go long at low prices [3]. - Tin prices are expected to continue wide - range fluctuations. The supply of tin concentrate is tight, and the downstream consumption has a certain degree of recovery. It is recommended to trade within the range [3]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain range - bound oscillations. Polysilicon prices have fallen below the cost, and it is recommended to wait and see. Lithium carbonate prices are expected to continue to oscillate due to the increase in both supply and demand [3]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - In the week from March 16th to 22nd, important economic data were released. For example, China's real estate development investment from January to February decreased by 11.1% year - on - year, while fixed - asset investment increased by 1.8% year - on - year, and industrial added value increased by 6.3% year - on - year. The US PPI in February increased significantly, and the Fed kept the interest rate unchanged and raised the inflation and GDP growth expectations [11][13][15][16]. - In the week from March 23rd to 29th, some important economic data are expected to be released, including the eurozone's March comprehensive PMI preliminary value and the US March unemployment claims data [18]. 3.2 Copper - Price trend: The high - level range breaks through the lower limit and falls. The current global three - place inventory is as high as 1.45 million tons. Although the domestic downstream demand is recovering and the inventory is starting to decline, the overseas inventory continues to accumulate [2]. - Supply and demand: The tight pattern of ore continues, and the refined copper supply maintains year - on - year positive growth. However, there are many interference factors in the second - quarter output, and the supply side still has support. The downstream demand continues to recover, and there is still room for improvement [2]. 3.3 Aluminum - Price trend: High - level decline and overall wide - range fluctuations. The domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises' operating rate increases week - on - week, but the demand is also suppressed by price fluctuations [2]. - Supply and demand: The price of domestic bauxite is stable, and the export restriction measures of Guinea's bauxite are expected to be mild. The operating capacity of alumina decreases, and the inventory increases. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum increases, but the production in some regions is affected by the situation in the Middle East [2]. 3.4 Zinc - Price trend: Rapid decline and then stabilization. The supply of zinc concentrate is tight, and the demand recovery is slow. The downstream galvanizing industry mainly consumes the pre - holiday inventory, and the terminal procurement demand is weak [2]. - Supply and demand: The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee is at a low level, and the import ore processing fee continues to decline. The zinc ingot social inventory decreases slightly, and the downstream's willingness to replenish inventory at low prices increases [2]. 3.5 Lead - Price trend: Oscillate downward. The inventory of LME and COMEX lead and the inventory of SHFE lead both decrease. The price of lead concentrate, lead ingot, and waste battery recycling price all decline, and the suppliers' reluctance to sell increases [2]. - Supply and demand: Affected by the situation in the Middle East and the change in the Fed's policy expectations, the lead price fluctuates sharply. It is necessary to pay attention to the changes in lead inventory and energy trends [2]. 3.6 Nickel - Price trend: After a decline, it rebounds. The ore end is supported, but the price increase is limited by macro factors. The inventory of refined nickel continues to accumulate, and the price of nickel iron is expected to be strong [3]. - Supply and demand: The supply of nickel ore is tight, the production of refined nickel in March increases significantly, the demand is average, and the production of MHP is blocked. The stainless steel production recovers, and the inventory decreases for three consecutive weeks [3]. 3.7 Tin - Price trend: Oscillate downward. The downstream replenishes inventory at low prices, and the price has support. The output of refined tin in February decreases, and the import of tin concentrate increases year - on - year [3]. - Supply and demand: The supply of tin concentrate is tight, the downstream semiconductor industry is expected to continue to recover, and the inventory is at a medium level. It is necessary to pay attention to the overseas raw material supply disturbances [3]. 3.8 Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, and Lithium Carbonate - Industrial silicon: The weekly output increases slightly, the factory inventory decreases, and the three - port inventory increases. It is expected to maintain range - bound oscillations [3]. - Polysilicon: The weekly output increases slightly, and the factory inventory increases. The price has fallen below the cost, and it is recommended to wait and see [3]. - Lithium carbonate: The supply is expected to increase, and the price continues to oscillate. The production in some mines is affected, and the import is expected to increase. The demand in the industry chain is strong, and it is necessary to pay attention to the export ban in Zimbabwe and the disturbances at the Yichun mine end [3].