Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - From September 15 - 19, 2025, the central bank net - injected liquidity during the tax period, and the 14 - day reverse repurchase was changed to "American tender". The money market tightened under the influence of the tax period, and there may still be some volatility pressure in the second half of September due to the cross - quarter effect [2][6][7] - From September 15 - 21, 2025, the net payment scale of government bonds increased, and the net payment scale of government bonds from September 22 - 28 is expected to be 413.9 billion yuan [8] - As of September 19, 2025, the maturity yields of inter - bank certificates of deposit (NCDs) increased overall, and the net financing amount of NCDs turned positive. The maturity repayment volume of NCDs from September 22 - 28 is expected to be 969.2 billion yuan, with increased pressure on renewal [9] - From September 15 - 19, 2025, the average leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market decreased, and the durations of medium - long - term and short - term interest - style pure bond funds both decreased marginally [10] Summary by Directory 1. Money Market - From September 15 - 19, 2025, the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase injected 1.8268 trillion yuan and matured 1.2645 trillion yuan, and the treasury cash injected 150 billion yuan and matured 120 billion yuan, with a total net injection of 592.3 billion yuan. On September 15, a 600 - billion - yuan 6 - month outright reverse repurchase operation was carried out, with an incremental renewal of 300 billion yuan. From September 22 - 26, 2025, 1.8268 trillion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases and 300 billion yuan of MLF will mature [6] - On September 19, 2025, the central bank adjusted the 14 - day reverse repurchase operation to "fixed quantity, interest - rate tender, and multiple - price winning bids", which helps reduce bank liability costs and highlights the policy - rate position of the 7 - day reverse repurchase operation rate. It is expected that 14 - day reverse repurchases will be appropriately operated in late September to stabilize the money market [7] - From September 15 - 19, 2025, affected by the tax period, the average values of DR001 and R001 increased by 7.7 and 8.7 basis points respectively compared with September 8 - 12, and the average values of DR007 and R007 increased by 4.8 and 4.0 basis points respectively [7] 2. Government Bonds - From September 15 - 21, 2025, the net payment scale of government bonds was about 448 billion yuan, an increase of about 103.7 billion yuan compared with September 8 - 14. The net financing amount of treasury bonds was about 397.1 billion yuan, and that of local government bonds was about 50.9 billion yuan. From September 22 - 28, 2025, the net payment scale of government bonds is expected to be 41.39 billion yuan, with a net financing of about - 89.65 billion yuan for treasury bonds and about 131.04 billion yuan for local government bonds [8] 3. Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit (NCDs) - As of September 19, 2025, the maturity yields of 1 - month and 3 - month NCDs were 1.5750%, an increase of 2.4 and 1.5 basis points respectively compared with September 12, and the maturity yield of 1 - year NCDs was 1.6750%, an increase of 0.5 basis points compared with September 12 [9] - From September 15 - 21, 2025, the net financing amount of NCDs was about 134.4 billion yuan, compared with about - 468.3 billion yuan from September 8 - 14. The maturity repayment volume of NCDs from September 22 - 28 is expected to be 969.2 billion yuan, with increased pressure on renewal [9] 4. Institutional Behavior - From September 15 - 19, 2025, the average calculated leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market was 107.32%, compared with 107.37% from September 8 - 12. On September 19 and 12, the calculated leverage ratios were about 107.45% and 107.44% respectively [10] - Based on the calculation results, the durations of medium - long - term and short - term interest - style pure bond funds both decreased marginally. On September 19, 2025, the median duration (MA5) of medium - long - term interest - style pure bond funds was 4.04 years, a weekly decrease of 0.70 years, at the 58.7% quantile since the beginning of 2022; the median duration (MA5) of short - term interest - style pure bond funds was 1.56 years, a weekly decrease of 0.17 years, at the 12.2% quantile since the beginning of 2022 [10]

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨点评报告丨软件与服务 [Table_Title] 中文互联网基础语料 3.0 发布，关注大模型语料 投资机遇 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 9 月 18 日，在昆明召开的 2025 年国家网络安全宣传周人工智能安全治理分论坛上，中文互联 网基础语料 3.0 正式向社会发布。随着中文互联网基础语料 3.0 发布等高质量中文语料持续发 布，中文高质量语料供给有望加强，同时在大模型加速落地的过程中，数据的价值或将进一步 被挖掘。建议关注具备高质量数据资源的厂商，尤其在医疗、金融、工业等细分领域具有稀缺 数据的公司。 宗建树 陈耀文 SAC：S0490520030004 SAC：S0490525070002 SFC：BUX668 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 软件与服务 cjzqdt11111 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] [Table_Title 中文互联网基础语料 2] 3.0 发布，关注大模型语料 投资机遇 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 9 月 18 日，在昆明召开的 2025 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [7] Core Viewpoints - The agreement on the "Technology Prosperity Agreement" between the UK and the US marks a new phase of cooperation in key emerging technologies, including AI and quantum technology, with over £31 billion committed by tech giants like Microsoft, NVIDIA, Google, and OpenAI to enhance AI infrastructure and quantum technology in the UK [2][4] - The agreement is expected to accelerate the development of quantum technology, suggesting a focus on the entire quantum technology supply chain, particularly leading companies in quantum computing and quantum communication [2][4] Summary by Relevant Sections Event Description - On September 16, the UK and the US reached an agreement on the "Technology Prosperity Agreement," indicating a generational cooperation in AI, quantum technology, and nuclear energy [4] Event Commentary - The agreement is anticipated to drive significant investment in quantum technology, with major companies like NVIDIA and Microsoft committing substantial resources to enhance the UK's AI and quantum computing capabilities [9] - The collaboration will elevate quantum technology to a national strategic level, emphasizing its importance in national security and economic prosperity [9] - The agreement is likely to lead to a multi-billion dollar investment in quantum technology, with specific commitments from major tech firms to develop advanced computing infrastructure [9]

Group 1 - The report indicates that from September 5 to 18, 2025, southbound funds recorded a net inflow of 550.84 billion HKD, primarily flowing into sectors such as discretionary consumer retail, non-bank financials, pharmaceuticals, automotive and parts, and non-ferrous metals, with the top five sectors accounting for a total net inflow of 451.03 billion HKD [2][5][31] - The sectors with the highest net inflows were discretionary consumer retail (259.66 billion HKD), non-bank financials (91.69 billion HKD), pharmaceuticals (40.14 billion HKD), automotive and parts (37.55 billion HKD), and non-ferrous metals (21.99 billion HKD) [2][5][31] - Significant outflows were observed in durable consumer goods, hardware equipment, and telecommunications services, with net outflows of -11.89 billion HKD, -6.54 billion HKD, and -5.88 billion HKD respectively [2][5][31] Group 2 - The report highlights that from September 5 to 19, 2025, the Hong Kong stock market experienced an increase, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.59% and the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 5.09% [5][12] - The rise in the market is attributed to overseas factors, including a 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which aligns with market expectations and enhances liquidity for the Hong Kong stock market [5][12] - Additionally, major internet stocks in Hong Kong signed strategic cooperation agreements with state-owned enterprises, contributing to the significant rise in the technology sector [5][12] Group 3 - From January 20 to September 18, 2025, southbound funds saw a cumulative net inflow of 9142.09 billion HKD, with the top five sectors being discretionary consumer retail (1913.68 billion HKD), banking (1435.97 billion HKD), non-bank financials (1059.94 billion HKD), pharmaceuticals (1056.75 billion HKD), and automotive and parts (779.65 billion HKD) [7][47] - The report notes that significant outflows occurred in telecommunications services (-206.41 billion HKD) and hardware equipment (-23.44 billion HKD) [7][47] - The report also indicates that the proportion of southbound funds in various sectors, such as semiconductors, discretionary consumer retail, and environmental protection, has shown notable changes [31][47]

Core Insights - The "anti-involution" policy has shown a differentiated catalytic effect on the market, with significant excess returns in most industries like batteries relative to the CSI 300 index, while the coal industry has not outperformed the index [2][5][15] - The implementation of the "anti-involution" policy has led to a recovery in factory prices from the supply side, but this has not yet translated to consumer prices at the residential level [2][22] - Since July, prices of polysilicon and thermal coal have stabilized and rebounded significantly, indicating the impact of the "anti-involution" policy on price recovery [2][34] Market Performance - From July 1 to September 19, 2025, the battery sector saw a 41.13% increase, while the coal sector only increased by 7.36%, compared to a 14.38% rise in the CSI 300 index [15][16] - The coal production in August was 390 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.2%, while coal prices have stabilized, contributing to the coal sector's recent performance [5][14] Policy Developments - Since June, new "anti-involution" policies have been introduced, emphasizing self-discipline and legal norms to promote capacity optimization, with more noticeable effects in quantifiable areas [6][16] - The effectiveness of these policies may vary, with some sectors lacking quantitative policy support, leading to temporary inefficiencies in supply contraction [6][16] Inflation Data - The Producer Price Index (PPI) has shown signs of recovery, with an August year-on-year decline of 2.9%, a narrowing of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month [22][27] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has seen an expanded year-on-year decline, primarily due to a drop in consumer goods prices, with food and beverage prices down by 2.5% [27][31] Industry Price Recovery - Since July, polysilicon prices have shown a significant upward trend, reaching an average price of 50 yuan per kilogram by September 19, 2025 [34][38] - Other materials have experienced short-term price increases followed by a return to a downward trend, indicating a mixed recovery across sectors [34][36] Future Outlook - The market is expected to continue on a "slow bull" trend, driven by a revaluation of Chinese assets, with a focus on sectors benefiting from supply-side improvements and policy expectations [7][45] - Key sectors to watch include metals, transportation, chemicals, lithium batteries, photovoltaic, and pig farming, which are anticipated to benefit from the "anti-involution" policies [7][41][45]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the liquor industry [10] Core Insights - The liquor inventory cycle is gradually turning, with expectations of a demand recovery driven by ongoing economic policies and improved consumer confidence. The industry is entering a critical phase for left-side layout [2][8] - Current valuations and fund holdings in the liquor industry are at historical lows, indicating a favorable time for allocation. Leading liquor companies are showing strong dividend support [2][8] Summary by Sections Inventory Management - The liquor industry has clear inventory cycle fluctuations, with different phases affecting stock performance. The current phase indicates a shift from passive inventory accumulation to active inventory reduction, suggesting a more scientific and rational management approach by manufacturers [6][20][24] Demand Recovery - The demand for liquor is closely tied to macroeconomic conditions. Historical data shows that liquor industry revenue growth aligns with GDP growth, indicating potential for gradual recovery as the economy improves [36][39] Head Brand Concentration - The trend of market share concentration towards leading brands continues, with top companies maintaining stable growth despite overall market slowdowns. In 2024, listed liquor companies accounted for 28% of the total production, a historical high [42][44] Mid-Autumn Festival Performance Review - Historical performance around the Mid-Autumn Festival shows varying results for liquor stocks compared to the CSI 300 index. The fundamental performance remains the decisive factor for excess returns during this period [49][52]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [10] Core Viewpoints - The Ministry of Finance's comprehensive debt reduction measures have been effectively implemented since the fourth quarter of last year, with a focus on accelerating the issuance of local government special bonds and improving cash flow for environmental sectors [2][4][20] - The report highlights that the average interest cost of replaced debts has decreased by over 2.5 percentage points, saving more than 450 billion yuan in interest expenses [4][19] - The report anticipates that the early allocation of part of the 2026 new local government debt limit will further enhance cash flow for various environmental sectors [4][20] Summary by Sections Debt Issuance Progress - As of August 2025, 40% of the 60 billion yuan special debt limit for 2024-2026 has been issued, with 27.8 billion yuan of new local government special bonds issued this year [4][19] - The issuance of special refinancing bonds for debt replacement has accelerated, with 99% of the 2 trillion yuan quota for 2025 already in place [6][21] Cash Flow Improvement - The report suggests that the acceleration of debt reduction will benefit multiple environmental sectors, particularly those with significant government receivables [7][36] - The focus on debt reduction is expected to lead to a substantial improvement in cash flow for To G enterprises, as the government is committed to resolving hidden debt risks [5][20] Investment Logic - Two recommended investment strategies are identified: 1. Value side: Focus on sectors with large absolute receivables and low risk, such as waste incineration and water operations [7][38] 2. Elasticity side: Pay attention to sectors with low price-to-book ratios and high government receivables, where performance is significantly affected by credit impairment losses [7][38] Special Debt Utilization - The report notes that the use of special bonds for clearing government debts has become a new purpose for local government special bonds, with a focus on addressing overdue payments to enterprises [6][35]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Fuyao Glass [10] Core Insights - The automotive glass market is experiencing continuous upgrades driven by smart integration, with products like panoramic roofs, HUDs, and soundproof glass enhancing the per-vehicle value [2][5] - The industry is highly concentrated, with Fuyao Glass as the global leader, benefiting from a new round of capacity expansion that opens up future growth opportunities [2][7] Summary by Sections Smart Integration Driving Value Enhancement - Automotive glass is evolving from a safety component to a multifunctional platform, integrating features such as heat insulation, soundproofing, information display, smart dimming, and energy collection [19] - The penetration rate of panoramic roofs in the passenger car market is expected to rise from 10.5% in 2024 to 50% by 2030, with average per-vehicle value increasing by 30%-40% compared to traditional sunroofs [6][39] Fuyao Glass: Volume and Price Growth - Fuyao Glass's revenue and global market share are consistently increasing, with a revenue of 21.45 billion yuan and a net profit of 4.8 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 [7] - The company is expanding its high-end production capacity domestically and internationally, which is expected to enhance its global market share [7][63] Investment Recommendations - The trend of rising volume and price in automotive glass is clear, with high-value products like panoramic roofs and HUDs driving the average per-vehicle value higher [8] - Fuyao Glass is recommended for continued investment due to its strong market position and growth potential in the context of increasing demand for high-value automotive glass products [8][10] Global Competitive Landscape - The global automotive glass market is characterized by a high concentration of major players, with Fuyao Glass holding a 28% market share, followed closely by AGC and NSG [68] - Fuyao's competitive advantages include rapid local supply chain response and strong customer relationship management, solidifying its market leadership [68][70]

Market Performance - The weekly trading volume showed a slight recovery, while the Shanghai Composite Index experienced a minor decline[2] - The "Growth+" series indices from Changjiang maintained a positive performance, with the Changjiang Growth Index doubling its year-to-date increase[2] - The weekly performance of the Changjiang Dual Innovation Growth Index was notably strong[6] Style and Sector Analysis - The trading activity of the dividend style continued to recover, while the crowding degree of the growth style slightly decreased[6] - High profitability quality stocks saw a sustained increase in trading activity, while micro-cap stocks' crowding degree continued to decline[2] - The consumer discretionary sector led the weekly performance among industry sectors, followed by information technology and hardware[28] Fund Performance - The fund-heavy 50 index outperformed other fund-heavy indices, with a weekly return of 1.62%[22] - The overall fund-heavy index maintained an upward trend during the week[23] - The Northbound heavy series underperformed compared to the Changjiang All A index since the beginning of 2025[26] Thematic Trends - The Changjiang Manufacturing Champion Selected Index showed strong weekly performance, leading the thematic indices[34] - The Changjiang Low-Carbon Leader 30 Index achieved a weekly return of 4.25%[34]

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨煤炭与消费用燃料 [Table_Title] 关注反内卷下核增产能退出风险 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 除了超产核查，煤炭"反内卷"政策工具箱还有哪些措施可以期待？我们认为，考虑到 2021 年 增产保供政策实施以来存在先放量后补齐产能置换手续的核增产能，且 2025 年底或是其兑现 产能置换承诺的截止时间，因此政策要求下，这部分产能存在退出风险，则供给边际收敛下煤 价及板块有望迎来上行催化。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 肖勇 赵超 叶如祯 庄越 韦思宇 SAC：S0490516080003 SAC：S0490519030001 SAC：S0490517070008 SAC：S0490522090003 SAC：S0490524120007 SFC：BUT918 SFC：BUY139 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 煤炭与消费用燃料 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] 关注反内卷下核增产能退出风险 [Table_Summary2] 最新跟踪：节前冬储补库需求释 ...