报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年厦门银行启动"2+3"新五年战略规划，首年实现开门红，业绩增速全面转正。作为资 产规模基数小、资产负债表底子干净的城商行，新一届管理层履新以来，全行营销士气全面提 升，信贷投放节奏前置，银行同业人才陆续加盟，同时在福建省内多个城市的市占率明显上升， 已经展现出强势的竞争力。我们预计厦门银行 2026~2029 年将陆续实现资产规模扩张、息差 企稳回升、风险指标改善，从营收增速回升传导到利润增速和 ROE 中枢抬升。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 马祥云 盛悦菲 SAC：S0490521120002 SAC：S0490524070002 SFC：BUT916 丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg1] 公司研究丨点评报告丨厦门银行（601187.SH） [Table_Title] 新五年强势开局，资产端提质上量 ——2025 年业绩快报点评 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_scodeMsg2] 厦门银行（601187.SH） cjzqdt11111 [Ta ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is Neutral, maintained [6] Core Insights - The steel industry accounts for approximately 15% of the national carbon emissions, making it the highest carbon-emitting manufacturing sector. The implementation of low-carbon steelmaking is a significant challenge for Chinese steel companies [2][4] - The "carbon peak" target was first proposed in 2020, evolving into a policy of stabilizing crude steel production. The current deepening of carbon neutrality policies may accelerate the elimination of outdated production capacity in the steel industry [2][4] - As the Spring Festival approaches, demand and production are slowing down, leading to a low inventory and low expectation state in the steel market. The overall market is characterized by low production, low inventory, and low expectations, awaiting macro or industrial catalysts [4] Summary by Sections Section 1: Market Dynamics - Demand continues to weaken with a year-on-year decrease of 2.02% and a month-on-month decrease of 0.67% in apparent consumption of major steel products [4] - Steel production has slightly increased, with a year-on-year rise of 2.19% and a month-on-month rise of 0.48% in total steel output [4] - Total steel inventory has increased by 1.57% month-on-month and 13.05% year-on-year [4] Section 2: Policy and Regulatory Environment - The carbon intensity reduction target has been a binding indicator since the 12th Five-Year Plan, with a projected reduction of about 7.8% by the end of 2024, which is below expectations [4] - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has released a carbon emission trading market allocation plan for the steel, cement, and aluminum industries, marking a significant step towards operationalizing carbon control policies [4] Section 3: Investment Opportunities - Short-term focus on energy-saving and carbon-reduction modifications in existing blast furnace-converter processes is a practical choice for steel companies [5] - Long-term investment opportunities may arise in electric arc furnace steelmaking and hydrogen metallurgy as the dual carbon policy deepens [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9] Core Insights - The company has recently obtained the recognition as a high-tech enterprise, which allows it to enjoy tax benefits at a rate of 15% from 2025 to 2027, potentially increasing reported profits by approximately 23 million [2][7] - Key products such as Lanting and sparkling yellow wine are expected to continue their iterations in 2025, with Lanting launching a 600ml specification and sparkling yellow wine introducing canned versions and other flavors, both anticipated to achieve good growth [2][7] - The sales of sparkling yellow wine are projected to expand beyond the Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai regions into key markets like Shandong, Guangdong, and Sichuan, supporting the company's strategy for youthfulness and national expansion [2][7] Summary by Sections Recent Developments - The company has received high-tech enterprise certification, which will enhance its profit margins due to favorable tax rates [2][7] - The product lineup is set to evolve with new specifications and flavors, aiming for significant growth in 2025 [2][7] Market Strategy - The company plans to broaden the market coverage of its sparkling yellow wine in 2026, targeting a sales goal of 200 million and entering more second and third-tier cities [2][7] Financial Projections - For 2025 and 2026, the expected earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.48 and 0.57 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 46 and 38 [2][7]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the utility sector, particularly for coal-fired power operators, with a recommendation to focus on quality transformation operators such as Huaneng International, Datang Power, Guodian Power, Huadian International, China Power, China Resources Power, and Funiu Co., Ltd. [7] Core Insights - The report highlights the importance of the capacity compensation mechanism in addressing the long-standing issue of fixed cost recovery in the coal-fired power sector. The implementation of a reliable capacity compensation mechanism is expected to resolve the dual pricing system between long-term contracts and spot market prices, leading to a more balanced electricity market. [2][5][7] - The report anticipates that by 2026, the national capacity supply-demand ratio will reach 84%-96%, with capacity prices ranging from 276 to 316 RMB/year·kW. This is expected to alleviate the downward pressure on long-term contract prices significantly. [7] - The report emphasizes that the introduction of the capacity compensation mechanism will decouple the fixed cost recovery from long-term contract pricing, thus allowing coal-fired power to return to being a public utility. [7] Summary by Sections Introduction - The report discusses the recent announcement by the National Development and Reform Commission regarding the improvement of the capacity price mechanism, which aims to unify various types of regulatory power sources under a new reform initiative. [18] Importance of Capacity Compensation Mechanism - The capacity price is designed to compensate for fixed costs associated with power plants, which include capital costs, fixed operating and maintenance costs, and taxes. This mechanism is crucial for ensuring that power companies can recover their fixed costs effectively. [21][22] International Examples and Domestic Innovations - The report references the PJM capacity market mechanism in the U.S. and the innovative capacity compensation mechanism trialed in Gansu Province, which aims to achieve near-full recovery of fixed costs. [6] Breaking the Profitability Dilemma - The report concludes that if the reliable capacity compensation mechanism is implemented nationwide, it will significantly reduce the profitability challenges faced by coal-fired power plants under the current dual pricing system. [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the express delivery industry [14] Core Insights - Since Q4 2025, the growth rate of the express delivery industry has been declining, with growth rates of 7.9%, 5.0%, and 2.3% in October, November, and December 2025 respectively. This slowdown has accelerated the differentiation within the industry, with leading companies like ZTO Express and YTO Express outperforming second-tier competitors [2][7][23] - Key factors influencing the industry include: 1) The introduction of precise tax audits for e-commerce, increasing compliance costs for merchants; 2) The "anti-involution" measures in express delivery, which have set a clear bottom line for competition and raised logistics costs [7][30][36] - Looking ahead to 2026, the industry is expected to experience a clearer turning point in differentiation, with leading companies likely to continue gaining market share and potentially benefiting from volume, profit, and valuation improvements [8][42] Summary by Sections E-commerce Compliance Costs - The e-commerce tax collection has been strengthened, significantly increasing compliance costs for merchants. The introduction of the "Internet Platform Enterprises Tax Information Reporting Regulations" in June 2025 marks a new phase of tax compliance in the e-commerce sector [30][33] - The tax burden for online merchants has increased, particularly for those with annual revenues exceeding 5 million, as the advantages of non-compliance diminish [30][34] Anti-Involution Measures - The "anti-involution" measures have stabilized express delivery prices, leading to improved profitability for express companies. Since September 2025, the price growth rate has turned positive, enhancing the single-ticket profitability of express services [36][37] - The focus on maintaining a safe bottom line in the industry is expected to continue, with the postal administration prioritizing the regulation of "involution-style" competition in 2026 [36] Industry Outlook - The express delivery industry is anticipated to return to single-digit growth rates, with a clearer differentiation among companies. Leading firms with strong product value propositions and solid financial structures are expected to gain market share [42] - The report highlights the potential for valuation premiums to recover for leading companies like ZTO Express and YTO Express, as their market share and profit expectations improve [42][46]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the gaming industry [7]. Core Insights - Google's experimental research prototype, Project Genie, and TapTap's AI game creation agent are expected to reshape the game development chain and build a new content ecosystem. The integration of AI is anticipated to enhance the gaming industry significantly [2][4]. - The core competitive advantages in the gaming industry remain IP, quality content, gameplay innovation, and platform capabilities. Companies that actively embrace AI and possess mature game development capabilities are viewed positively [2][4]. - The gaming sector is expected to experience a strong product cycle and performance certainty through 2026, with a focus on investment opportunities in the gaming sector [2][4]. Summary by Sections Event Description - Google has officially launched Project Genie, an experimental research prototype powered by Genie 3, which allows users to create and explore interactive 3D environments based on text prompts or uploaded images. This technology represents a significant breakthrough in AI world simulation [9]. - TapTap has introduced the AI game creation agent "TapTap Manufacturing," which aims to lower the technical barriers for game creation, promoting a "zero-threshold creation" era. This product allows creators to develop and launch games through natural language dialogue without leaving the chat interface [9]. Investment Recommendations - The report expresses optimism about the long-term empowerment of the gaming industry by AI, with a focus on new game releases and industry catalysts. The gaming sector's product cycle and performance certainty through 2026 are expected to remain strong, highlighting investment opportunities in companies such as Giant Network, Kaixin Network, Perfect World, and Tencent [2][9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - In January 2026, the manufacturing PMI dropped 0.8 pct to 49.3%, and the non - manufacturing business activity index also fell below the prosperity - decline line, weaker than the seasonal level. The overall economic stability - growth approach may shift from "trading price for volume" to "trading volume for price", and the improvement of the fundamentals requires long - term repair. There are still some bright spots, such as the price increase of commodities driving up the overall price and the continuous release of growth potential in equipment manufacturing and high - end technology manufacturing. The bond market may react to the weak data but is unlikely to have a continuous repair market, and the view of a bond market oscillation is maintained in the near term [2][6]. 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1 Manufacturing PMI Situation - **Production and Demand**: The manufacturing PMI in January 2026 fell 0.8 pct to 49.3%, lower than the Wind consensus forecast. The production index dropped 1.1 pct to 50.6% but remained above the prosperity - decline line. The import index rose 0.3 pct to 47.3%, while the procurement index fell 2.4 pct to 48.7%. The new order index decreased 1.6 pct to 49.2%, and the new export order index dropped 1.2 pct to 47.8% [4][6]. - **Inventory**: The finished - product inventory increased 0.4 pct month - on - month and 2.1 pct year - on - year to 48.6%. The difference between the "finished - product inventory - on - hand orders" index widened 1.3 pct to 3.5 pct, and whether subsequent consumer demand can digest the inventory remains to be seen [6]. - **Price**: The raw material purchase price index was 56.1%, up 3 pct month - on - month and 6.6 pct year - on - year, reaching a two - year high. The ex - factory price index was 50.6%, rising above the critical point for the first time in 20 months. However, the pressure on corporate profit repair re - emerged, and the future price downward pressure still exists [6]. - **Enterprise Scale and Industry**: Among different enterprise scales, large - scale enterprises' prosperity declined slightly by 0.5 pct to 50.3%, still in the expansion range; medium - and small - scale enterprises' prosperity declined significantly, dropping 1.1 pct and 1.2 pct to 48.7% and 47.4% respectively, below the prosperity - decline line. Among industries, the four basic industries all declined, but the equipment manufacturing and high - end technology manufacturing industries maintained certain resilience, with their prosperity still in the expansion range [6]. 3.2 Non - manufacturing PMI Situation - The non - manufacturing business activity index in January 2026 fell 0.8 pct to 49.4%. The construction business activity index dropped 4 pct to 48.8%, and the construction new order index fell 7.3 pct to 40.1%, reaching the lowest level since the second half of 2025. The service business activity index decreased 0.2 pct to 49.5%. The financial service - related industries had a relatively high prosperity level, while the real estate industry's business activity index dropped below 40%, with overall weak prosperity [6].

Group 1: Gold Price Trends - Since the beginning of the year, gold prices have risen significantly, surpassing $5,000 per ounce, driven by geopolitical events and the "Wosh Shock" adjustment[2] - As of January 28, the London gold spot price increased from $4,318 per ounce at the end of last year to $5,414 per ounce[6] - The "Wosh Shock" is nearing its end, as the expectation of balance sheet reduction may raise term premiums, making it difficult for mid to long-term interest rates to decline[9] Group 2: Demand Structure and Influences - Gold demand is primarily driven by jewelry, central bank purchases, and ETFs, with central bank purchases and ETF increases playing a significant role in price changes[7] - The actual delivery volume from futures investors is very low, indicating that gold pricing is more reflective of financial behavior rather than physical demand[8] - Central banks, particularly from Brazil, Indonesia, and Iraq, have been significant buyers of gold in January, contributing to the price increase[8] Group 3: Future Outlook - The upcoming midterm elections are a major factor, with expectations of a 50 basis point rate cut by the end of the year supporting gold prices[9] - The global economic landscape remains characterized by "order restructuring" and "low growth with high debt," making gold a preferred asset against uncertainty[9] - Historical patterns suggest that gold will continue to be a key asset as geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties persist[9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8] Core Insights - The company has completed registration procedures in Indonesia and obtained necessary overseas investment permits. It has partnered with "RICH STREAM INVESTMENT PTE. LTD." to invest up to $300 million in the Indonesian market for functional beverages, factory construction, and related business [2][6] - The partnership with RICH STREAM INVESTMENT PTE. LTD. is expected to accelerate the company's expansion into Southeast Asia, leveraging the extensive distribution channels of the Indonesian partner, which includes 23,000 stores [13] - The company plans to invest 1.1 billion yuan in the Chengdu production base to optimize its supply chain and enhance production capacity, which is projected to exceed 4.8 million tons per year by 2024 [13] - The company is enhancing its product launch capabilities and internal management, with expectations for significant revenue contributions from new product lines such as bottled water, milk tea, and fruit tea. EPS forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 8.56, 10.61, and 12.71 yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 29X, 24X, and 20X [13] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections are 15.839 billion yuan for 2024, increasing to 31.166 billion yuan by 2027. Operating profit is expected to rise from 4.145 billion yuan in 2024 to 8.288 billion yuan in 2027 [20] - The net profit forecast for 2024 is 3.326 billion yuan, growing to 6.610 billion yuan by 2027, with EPS increasing from 6.40 yuan to 12.71 yuan over the same period [20]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [9] Core Insights - The dye industry has been at a low point for several years, but there are signs of recovery in the intermediate and dye markets [6][11] - Recent price increases in disperse and reactive dyes indicate a potential upward trend, with disperse black ECT300% averaging 19 CNY/kg (up 5.56%) and reactive black WNN150% averaging 23 CNY/kg (up 4.55%) [2][6] - The dye intermediate market is showing warmth, supported by rising raw material prices, leading companies to raise their product prices [2][6] Summary by Sections Market Performance - Disperse dye capacity in China is 563,000 tons/year with a CR3 of 59% and CR5 of 77%, while reactive dye capacity is 455,000 tons/year with a CR3 of 55% and CR5 of 76% [11][12] - Historical price trends show that leading companies have significant pricing power, with past price increases driven by supply chain disruptions and environmental regulations [11][12] Industry Dynamics - The dye intermediate sector has high environmental and technical barriers, making it crucial in the dye industry. The production of intermediates like H acid involves complex processes that are environmentally sensitive [11][12] - The industry is expected to benefit from stricter environmental regulations, which may lead to further optimization of supply and a potential recovery from the current low point [11][12] Historical Context - Historical price peaks for disperse and reactive dyes exceeded 50,000 CNY/ton, but the industry has faced prolonged low prices since 2019 due to overcapacity [11][12] - Recent price increases for intermediates, such as the rise of reducing agents from 25,000 CNY/ton to 38,000 CNY/ton, suggest a potential recovery in the dye market [11][12]