Group 1: Food and Beverage Industry - The EU's anti-subsidy measures on dairy products have been implemented, which is expected to accelerate the domestic substitution in deep processing of dairy products. The measures include temporary anti-subsidy deposits on EU dairy imports starting December 23, 2025 [3] - From 2020 to March 2024, EU dairy product imports accounted for 23.6% to 34.6% of China's total dairy imports. The imposition of anti-subsidy taxes is likely to drive the deep processing business to shift domestically [3] - Domestic dairy companies such as Miao Ke Lan Duo, Yili, Mengniu, and Li Gao are focusing on deep processing, with current domestic milk prices being lower than overseas prices, which may further accelerate domestic substitution [3] - The deep processing sector is expected to enhance the consumption of raw milk, thereby improving the supply-demand dynamics in the upstream raw milk industry [3] Group 2: Electronics Industry - Lingyi Technology (002600.SZ) plans to acquire a 35% stake in Limin Da for 875 million RMB, gaining control over 52.78% of voting rights. This acquisition will integrate Limin Da into the company's consolidated financial statements [5] - Limin Da specializes in thermal management solutions for enterprise-level servers, providing key hardware products such as liquid cooling connectors and modules. The company has established a strong customer base, including leading clients in the overseas computing industry [5] - For the first nine months of 2025, Limin Da reported revenues of 486 million RMB and a net profit of 21 million RMB, showing significant improvement in profitability compared to the previous year [5] - The acquisition is expected to enhance the company's capabilities in the server liquid cooling business, reduce development costs, and improve product validation cycles, thereby expanding the scale and profitability of the AI hardware server segment [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Add" rating for the industry [3] Core Insights - The EU's anti-subsidy measures on dairy products are expected to accelerate domestic substitution in the dairy processing sector, with temporary anti-subsidy deposits imposed on EU dairy imports starting December 23, 2025, at rates between 21.9% and 42.7% [1][2] - The share of EU dairy products in China's total dairy imports has been significant, ranging from 23.6% to 34.6% from 2020 to March 2024, indicating a substantial market impact [2] - Domestic dairy companies such as Miao Ke Lan Duo, Yili, Mengniu, and Li Gao are actively expanding their deep processing capabilities, which is expected to enhance demand for raw milk and improve the supply-demand balance in the upstream raw milk industry [2] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report highlights the implementation of temporary anti-subsidy measures on EU dairy imports, which is anticipated to shift processing activities back to domestic producers [1][2] Market Dynamics - The deep processing of dairy products is projected to increase raw milk consumption, driven by expanding demand from new consumption scenarios such as milk tea [2] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong potential in deep processing and raw milk supply-demand balance, specifically recommending Miao Ke Lan Duo, Yili, Mengniu, Li Gao for deep processing, and You Ran Mu Ye, Modern Dairy, and China Shengmu for upstream dairy farming [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company experienced a high single-digit decline in total sales for FY2026Q3, with direct store sales area decreasing by 1.3% quarter-on-quarter and 13.4% year-on-year [1] - The retail environment remains volatile, with pressures from store closures and competition affecting offline sales [1] - E-commerce sales are expected to continue growing due to the company's strong operational capabilities and enhanced digital marketing strategies [2] - The company is focusing on expanding its brand portfolio in the outdoor and running segments, collaborating with various brands to meet diverse consumer needs [2] - The overall revenue is projected to decline by 7% and net profit by approximately 4% for FY2026, influenced by the current consumer environment and inventory management [2] Financial Summary - Revenue for FY2026 is estimated at 25,062 million, a decrease of 7.2% year-on-year [4] - Net profit for FY2026 is projected at 1,229 million, down 4.4% year-on-year [4] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for FY2026 is expected to be 0.20 [4] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for FY2026 is estimated at 14.3 [4] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 13.6% for FY2026 [12]

证券研究报告 | 策略报告 gszqdatemark 2025 12 22 年 月 日 投资策略 跨年行情的复盘与展望 一、策略专题：跨年行情的复盘与展望 回顾过去 10 年出现过的跨年行情，指数层面主要有以下结论： （1）跨年行情并非确定性事件，过去 10 年共出现过 5 次跨年行情，出现 概率仅 50%。 （2）宏观经济情况大概率不影响跨年行情的出现，历史上 5 次跨年行情 中，有 2 次处于宏观经济较好的阶段（2018 年、2021 年），而 3 次则处 于基本面偏弱的阶段（2019 年、2020 年、2023 年）。 （3）流动性宽松与叙事积极变化可能是跨年行情的重要条件：5 次中有 3 次都处于宏观流动性宽松阶段，包括 2019 年、2023 年的央行全面降准与 2020 年的海外美联储降息，此外 2021 年也明确政策操作"不急转弯"； 5 次中有 4 次都出现了重要的叙事变化，2019 年、2020 年处于中美经贸 关系的改善阶段，2021 年拜登当选美国总统，同样指向中美经贸关系恶 化风险的减弱，2023 年防疫政策的逐渐优化提振了国内经济增长信心； 此外，股市流动性也形成助力，2021 年公 ...

Group 1: Market Overview and Strategy - The report discusses the review and outlook of the cross-year market, highlighting that the A-share market saw a significant rise driven by technology stocks, while macro policies entered a "window period" [3] - Global equity markets showed mixed performance, with the Vietnamese stock market leading the gains [3] - Commodity prices mostly declined, and the interest rate differential between China and the US narrowed [3] Group 2: Convertible Bonds - The valuation of convertible bonds remains at historical highs, with a pricing deviation indicator of 8.12%, indicating low long-term allocation value for convertible bonds since July [4] - The report suggests reducing positions in equity-oriented convertible bonds to mitigate potential market downturn risks, while maintaining current allocations in debt-oriented strategies [4] Group 3: Fixed Income and Food Prices - The basic frequency index for food prices increased to 129.2 points, with a year-on-year increase of 6.2 points, indicating a stable growth trend [5] - Industrial production frequency index remained unchanged at 127.7, with a year-on-year increase of 5.0 points [6] Group 4: Blockchain and Deposit Tokens - The "Genius Act" has prompted concerns from the American Bankers Association regarding the potential threat to the existing financial system posed by tokens linked to fiat currency, which could lead to significant deposit outflows from banks [7] - JPMorgan Chase introduced a deposit token, JPMD, which combines features of cryptocurrency with traditional bank deposits, aiming to balance liquidity management and token business [9] Group 5: Environmental and Industrial Insights - The report emphasizes the need for a comprehensive governance system for solid waste management, driven by recent government policies aimed at promoting a circular economy [12] - The Australian energy market operator predicts that coal power capacity needs to double by 2050 to meet electricity demand, highlighting a significant gap that renewable energy cannot fill in the short term [13] Group 6: Non-Banking Financial Sector - The insurance sector is expected to benefit from the trend of bank deposits moving, with a positive outlook for 2026's liability performance due to product rate adjustments [16] - The securities market is experiencing high trading activity, benefiting from increased risk appetite and market valuation [16] Group 7: Company-Specific Insights - Qing Song Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 1.553 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 12.0%, with a significant recovery in profitability [18] - Fenbi's strategic partnership with Huatu is expected to enhance market share and improve profitability, with projected revenues of 2.67 billion yuan in 2025 [18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price based on a PE of 26 times for 2026 [3][5]. Core Insights - The company has shown a recovery in performance, with revenue and profit improving significantly after a four-year adjustment period from 2021 to 2024. For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.553 billion yuan (up 12.0% year-on-year), and net profit attributable to the parent company reached 111 million yuan (up 247.0% year-on-year) [1][12]. - The core business of face masks has seen a significant rebound in growth, driving overall performance. In the first half of 2025, the revenue from face masks was 450 million yuan (up 21% year-on-year), contributing to the company's growth [2][18]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the gross margin was 19.2% (up 2.6 percentage points year-on-year), and the net profit margin attributable to the parent company was 4.9% [1][12]. - The company reported a significant increase in operating cash flow, reaching 139 million yuan (up 50.1% year-on-year) for the first three quarters of 2025, indicating strong operational health [1][12]. - The company forecasts revenues of 2.172 billion yuan, 2.439 billion yuan, and 2.681 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 12.0%, 12.3%, and 9.9% [3][27]. Business Segment Performance - The face mask segment is the primary driver of growth, with a notable increase in revenue and improvement in gross margins. The gross margins for face masks, skincare, and wet wipes were 19.0%, 16.7%, and 13.5%, respectively, in the first half of 2025 [2][25]. - The company has effectively controlled costs, with a significant improvement in the net profit margin, which reached 8.0% in Q3 2025, up 3.5 percentage points year-on-year [1][16].

- The report introduces the **CCBA pricing deviation model** to evaluate the valuation level of convertible bonds. The pricing deviation is calculated as: $ Pricing\ Deviation = \frac{Convertible\ Bond\ Price}{CCBA\ Model\ Price} - 1 $ This model highlights that the current pricing deviation of the convertible bond market is 8.12%, which is at the 99.6% and 99.3% percentiles compared to 2018 and 2021 levels, respectively. The model suggests that the market is in a "high valuation, low odds" state, reducing the long-term allocation value of convertible bonds[6][11][23] - The **Convertible Bond & Stock-Bond Rotation Strategy** is constructed based on the CCBA pricing deviation. The Z-score is calculated as: $ Z = \frac{Pricing\ Deviation}{Standard\ Deviation\ of\ Past\ 3\ Years} $ The Z-score is truncated at ±1.5 standard deviations and normalized to a score. Convertible bond weight is determined as: $ Convertible\ Bond\ Weight = 50\% + 50\% \times Score $ The remaining allocation is assigned to a stock-bond portfolio (50% 7-10Y Treasury + 50% CSI 1000 Total Return Index). This strategy achieves stable excess returns by overweighting convertible bonds during undervaluation and vice versa[11][17][23] - The **Low Valuation Strategy** uses the CCBA_out model, which incorporates delisting risk into the CCBA pricing model. The pricing deviation is calculated as: $ Pricing\ Deviation = \frac{Convertible\ Bond\ Price}{CCBA\_out\ Model\ Price} - 1 $ The strategy selects the 15 convertible bonds with the lowest deviation in each of the three domains (biased debt, balanced, biased equity), forming a pool of 45 bonds. Bonds must have a balance of over 3 billion and a rating of AA- or above. The strategy achieves an absolute return of 20.5% and an excess return of 9.7% since 2018[23][25][26] - The **Low Valuation + Strong Momentum Strategy** combines the CCBA_out pricing deviation factor with the stock momentum factor. The stock momentum factor is constructed using equal-weighted scores of stock returns over the past 1, 3, and 6 months. This strategy achieves an absolute return of 24.3% and an excess return of 13.1% since 2018, with strong elasticity[26][28][29] - The **Low Valuation + High Turnover Strategy** selects the lowest 50% valuation convertible bonds based on the CCBA_out pricing deviation. Within this pool, convertible bonds with high turnover rates are chosen using turnover factors (5-day and 21-day turnover rates). This strategy achieves an absolute return of 23.2% and an excess return of 12.1% since 2018[29][31][32] - The **Balanced Biased Debt Enhanced Strategy** selects the lowest 50% valuation convertible bonds based on the CCBA_out pricing deviation. Biased debt bonds are further filtered using turnover rate and stock momentum factors, while balanced bonds are filtered using turnover rate factors. This strategy achieves an annualized absolute return of 22.3%, with volatility and drawdown controlled at 7.6% and 4.5%, respectively[32][34][35] - The **Credit Bond Substitution Strategy** filters convertible bonds with YTM+1% greater than the YTM of 3-year AA-rated credit bonds. Convertible bonds must have a balance of over 3 billion and a rating of AA- or above. Within this pool, the top 20 bonds with the strongest 1-month stock momentum are selected, with individual bond weights capped at 2%. Remaining allocation is assigned to credit bonds. This strategy achieves an absolute return of 7.1%, with volatility and drawdown below 3%[35][36][37] - The **Volatility Control Strategy** combines enhanced strategies for biased debt, balanced, and biased equity convertible bonds, along with credit bonds. The portfolio volatility is controlled at 4% using a volatility control method. This strategy achieves an absolute return of 9.4%, with volatility and drawdown controlled at 4%-5%[37][39][41] - **Performance Metrics** for the strategies: - **Low Valuation Strategy**: Annualized return of 20.5%, excess return of 9.7%, IR of 1.64[26] - **Low Valuation + Strong Momentum Strategy**: Annualized return of 24.3%, excess return of 13.1%, IR of 2.25[29] - **Low Valuation + High Turnover Strategy**: Annualized return of 23.2%, excess return of 12.1%, IR of 1.95[32] - **Balanced Biased Debt Enhanced Strategy**: Annualized return of 22.3%, volatility of 12.1%, drawdown of 13.9%[35] - **Credit Bond Substitution Strategy**: Annualized return of 7.1%, volatility of 2.1%, drawdown of 2.8%[37] - **Volatility Control Strategy**: Annualized return of 9.4%, volatility of 4.4%, drawdown of 4.4%[41]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][5]. Core Insights - The strategic partnership with Huatu aims to explore various areas including investment cooperation, corporate governance, technology development, distribution channel collaboration, industry self-regulation, and customer service [1]. - The collaboration is expected to enhance market share and restore profitability due to the complementary strengths of both leading companies in the industry [2]. - The AI product matrix is continuously expanding, with significant sales achievements, including over 14,000 units sold in a single day for the AI question-answering system class [2]. - The company plans to increase its AI R&D investment by 30% annually and collaborate with top institutions to build an educational large model laboratory [2]. Financial Summary - The projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 2.67 billion, 2.78 billion, and 2.98 billion RMB respectively, with adjusted net profits of 298 million, 375 million, and 445 million RMB [3][4]. - The adjusted net profit growth rates are expected to be -17.9% in 2025, 25.9% in 2026, and 18.7% in 2027 [4][11]. - The company’s P/E ratios for the next three years are projected to be 15.3x, 12.1x, and 10.2x respectively [4][11].

Investment Rating - Maintain "Overweight" rating for the industry [5] Core Insights - The "Genius Act" poses significant challenges and opportunities for the banking sector, potentially leading to deposit outflows and liquidity issues, termed "financial disintermediation" [8][10] - JPMorgan's launch of the deposit token, JPMD, aims to balance traditional banking interests with the innovative aspects of cryptocurrency, providing a solution for liquidity management while retaining key features of traditional deposits [3][17] Summary by Sections 1. Core Insights - The "Genius Act" requires that token issuers maintain sufficient assets, which could lead to substantial deposit outflows from banks, estimated at $1.9 trillion if the token market reaches $2 trillion [10][11] - JPMorgan's strategy involves leveraging its position to introduce deposit tokens that mitigate the risks posed by the "Genius Act" while enhancing its service offerings [8][10] 2. JPMorgan's Token Strategy - JPMorgan has been actively developing blockchain payment technologies and has previously launched JPM Coin, which has processed over $1.5 trillion in institutional payments since its introduction in 2019 [10][14] - The new deposit token, JPMD, is designed to represent real bank deposits, offering interest potential and deposit insurance, while integrating with traditional banking systems [3][17] 3. Typical Applications of Deposit Tokens - Payment applications: Deposit tokens facilitate peer-to-peer transactions, reducing reliance on traditional intermediaries [20] - Programmable currency: The programmable nature of deposit tokens allows for innovative solutions in existing deposit services, such as automated loan disbursements [21] - Protocol interaction: Deposit tokens are well-suited for interaction with smart contract protocols, enhancing automation and interoperability in multi-party transactions [23] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the rapid development of the RWA (Real World Assets) and asset tokenization markets, particularly in the context of regulatory advancements in the US and Hong Kong [24]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current Guosheng fundamental high - frequency index is 129.2 points (previous value: 129.1 points), with a week - on - week increase of 6.2 points (previous increase: 6.2 points), and the year - on - year growth rate remains unchanged. The long - short signal of interest - rate bonds is downgraded, with a signal factor of 3.4% (previous value: 3.5%) [2][10]. - In terms of production, the industrial production high - frequency index is 127.7 (previous value: 127.7), with a week - on - week increase of 5.0 points (previous increase: 5.0 points), and the year - on - year growth rate remains unchanged [2][10]. - In terms of total demand, the high - frequency index of commercial housing sales is 40.8 (previous value: 41.0), with a week - on - week decrease of 6.4 points (previous decrease: 6.4 points), and the year - on - year decline rate remains unchanged; the high - frequency index of infrastructure investment is 122.1 (previous value: 122.2), with a week - on - week increase of 8.5 points (previous increase: 8.7 points), and the year - on - year growth rate narrows; the high - frequency index of exports is 143.7 (previous value: 143.7), with a week - on - week increase of 0.4 points (previous increase: 0.5 points), and the year - on - year growth rate narrows; the high - frequency index of consumption is 121.1 (previous value: 121.0), with a week - on - week increase of 3.4 points (previous increase: 3.3 points), and the year - on - year growth rate expands [2][10]. - In terms of prices, the month - on - month CPI forecast is 0.0% (previous value: - 0.1%); the month - on - month PPI forecast is 0.1% (previous value: 0.2%) [2][11]. - The high - frequency inventory index is 163.6 (previous value: 163.4), with a week - on - week increase of 7.4 points (previous increase: 7.5 points), and the year - on - year growth rate narrows. The high - frequency transportation index is 133.7 (previous value: 133.4), with a week - on - week increase of 11.0 points (previous increase: 10.9 points), and the year - on - year growth rate expands. The high - frequency financing index is 245.2 (previous value: 244.6), with a week - on - week increase of 30.9 points (previous increase: 30.8 points), and the year - on - year growth rate expands [3][11]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Total Index: Fundamental High - Frequency Index Remains Stable - Based on the statistical system, a high - frequency data system covering overall, production, demand, prices, financing, etc. is constructed, and the Guosheng fixed - income fundamental high - frequency index and its sub - items are built [9]. - The current Guosheng fundamental high - frequency index is 129.2 points, with a week - on - week increase of 6.2 points, and the year - on - year growth rate remains unchanged. The long - short signal of interest - rate bonds is downgraded [2][10]. 3.2 Production: Electric Furnace Operating Rate Rises - The current electric furnace operating rate is 60.9% (previous value: 60.3%); the polyester operating rate is 88.9% (previous value: 88.9%); the semi - tire operating rate is 71.4% (previous value: 71.6%); the full - tire operating rate is 64.1% (previous value: 64.1%); the PTA operating rate is 73.8% (previous value: 73.8%); the PX operating rate is 89.2% (previous value: 89.2%); the coal dispatch at Qinhuangdao Port is 42.4 tons (previous value: 43.9 tons) [16]. 3.3 Real Estate Sales: Commercial Housing Transaction Area Recovers - The commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities in the current week is 34.9 million square meters (previous value: 27.9 million square meters); the premium rate of land transactions in 100 large and medium - sized cities is 1.7% (previous value: 1.9%) [27]. 3.4 Infrastructure Investment: Asphalt Operating Rate Fluctuates Narrowly - The current asphalt operating rate is 27.6% (previous value: 27.8%) [42]. 3.5 Exports: Freight Rate Index Rises Slightly - The current CCFI index is 1124.7 points (previous value: 1118.1 points); the RJ/CRB index is 293.9 points (previous value: 300.3 points) [44]. 3.6 Consumption: Daily Average Movie Box Office Declines - The daily average movie box office is 98.36 million yuan (previous value: 171.46 million yuan) [53]. 3.7 CPI: Fruit Prices Rise - The latest average wholesale price of pork is 17.5 yuan/kg (previous value: 17.6 yuan/kg); the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 5.9 yuan/kg (previous value: 5.9 yuan/kg); the average wholesale price of 7 key - monitored fruits is 7.6 yuan/kg (previous value: 7.5 yuan/kg); the average wholesale price of white - striped chickens is 17.8 yuan/kg (previous value: 17.8 yuan/kg) [60]. 3.8 PPI: Kerosene Prices Fall, Copper and Aluminum Spot Prices Continue to Rise - The closing price of thermal coal (produced in Shanxi) at Qinhuangdao Port is 719 yuan/ton (previous value: 761 yuan/ton); the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil is 60 US dollars/barrel (previous value: 62 US dollars/barrel); the spot settlement price of LME copper is 11,739 US dollars/ton (previous value: 11,692 US dollars/ton); the spot settlement price of LME aluminum is 2,855 US dollars/ton (previous value: 2,849 US dollars/ton) [64]. 3.9 Transportation: Subway Passenger Volume Declines - The subway passenger volume in first - tier cities in the current week is 38.63 million person - times (previous value: 39.83 million person - times); the highway logistics freight rate index is 1051 points (previous value: 1052 points); the number of domestic flights is 12,172 (previous value: 12,137) [75]. 3.10 Inventory: Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory Increases Significantly - The current electrolytic aluminum inventory is 190,000 tons (previous value: 167,000 tons); the soda ash inventory is 151,600 tons (previous value: 149,800 tons) [82]. 3.11 Financing: Local Bond Financing Declines - The net financing of local bonds in the week is 28.1 billion yuan (previous value: 62.3 billion yuan); the net financing of credit bonds is 57.5 billion yuan (previous value: 73.2 billion yuan); the 6M national - share bank draft rediscount rate is 0.91% (previous value: 0.84%); the average value of the bill rate - certificate of deposit rate is - 0.72% (previous value: - 0.79%) [94].