Market Performance - The coal sector has underperformed, with the CITIC Coal Index declining by 10.77% from the beginning of 2025 to June 30, 2025, lagging behind the CSI 300 Index by 10.80 percentage points, ranking last among 30 industries [1][14][15] - The decline is attributed to weak demand for thermal power, leading to a continuous drop in coal prices and a significant decrease in coal company profits, raising concerns about the sustainability of high dividends in the coal industry [1][15] Fund Holdings - As of the end of Q2 2025, the proportion of active funds holding coal stocks decreased to 0.36%, down 0.08 percentage points from Q1 2025. Index funds' holdings also fell to 0.71%, a decrease of 0.12 percentage points [1][19] - The combined holding of both types of funds in the coal sector is now 0.52%, down 0.09 percentage points from Q1 2025 [1][19] Cost Perspective on Coal Price Valuation - The complete cost curve for 16 listed thermal coal companies indicates that the complete cost per ton of coal is approximately 390 CNY/ton, suggesting a port price of 640 CNY/ton. The port coal price fell to 618 CNY/ton in early June, indicating that over 20% of coal production capacity could face losses at this price level [2] - The current coal price is considered low in terms of valuation, as it is near the cost line, which could lead to production cuts if prices remain below cost [2] Historical Policy Interventions - Historical analysis shows that significant policy interventions were necessary for coal price reversals in 2008, 2015, and 2020. Each price bottom was accompanied by government actions to stimulate demand or control supply [3] - The report emphasizes that policy intervention is a necessary condition for coal price recovery, with expectations for potential government actions to support prices in the current context [3] Thermal Coal Price Outlook - The report suggests that the current thermal coal price of 618 CNY/ton may represent a bottom, with potential for recovery driven by improved demand in the second half of 2025 [4][6] - Two scenarios are outlined: an optimistic scenario where demand improves significantly, and a pessimistic scenario where demand remains weak, potentially leading to further price declines [6] Coking Coal Market Dynamics - The coking coal market has seen significant price drops due to supply-demand imbalances, with low-sulfur coking coal prices falling to around 1100 CNY/ton. The report indicates that this decline has already reflected market expectations [5][7] - The report highlights the importance of inventory rebuilding and the enforcement of production limits to support price recovery in the coking coal market [7] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on major coal enterprises such as China Shenhua and China Coal Energy, as well as companies with significant earnings elasticity like Lu'an Huanneng and Jinneng Holding [8] - The report also notes the potential for price recovery in coking coal, with expectations for prices to rise to a range of 1500-2000 CNY/ton in the long term [7][8]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking it as a first-time recommendation [6]. Core Viewpoints - The company is positioned as a leading precision manufacturing provider, expanding its business into emerging fields such as smart automotive, humanoid robots, and AI glasses, which opens up growth opportunities [1][4]. - The company's revenue has shown steady growth, increasing from 27.72 billion in 2018 to an expected 69.90 billion in 2024, with a CAGR of 16.7% [1][27]. - The company is expected to benefit significantly from the development of AI technology, with all business lines projected to grow [5]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Precision Manufacturing Platform Layout - The company has evolved from a glass product supplier to a one-stop solution provider for smart terminals, expanding horizontally into various fields and vertically into functional modules and assembly [1][16]. - The company has established a clear shareholding structure, with the chairman and vice-chairman holding a significant portion of shares, which enhances development momentum [22]. Section 2: Consumer Electronics - The global smartphone market is expected to recover, with an estimated shipment of 1.22 billion units in 2024, a year-on-year increase of approximately 7% [2]. - The company has advanced technologies in glass, ceramics, and metal components, leading to increased recognition from major clients and a projected revenue growth of 97.42% in assembly for 2024 [2]. Section 3: New Energy Vehicles - The global sales of new energy vehicles are projected to reach 18.236 million units in 2024, a year-on-year growth of 24.4% [3]. - The company has over 30 clients in the smart automotive sector, with products like central control modules and charging piles experiencing rapid growth [3]. Section 4: Emerging Fields - The company is accelerating the industrialization of humanoid robots and has established partnerships to provide key components and assembly services [4]. - The foldable machine market is expected to grow with new North American clients, and the company has developed capabilities for rapid mass production of foldable screen components [4]. - The AI glasses market is projected to see significant growth, with the company already applying its developed components in high-end products [4]. Section 5: Profit Forecast - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 92.034 billion, 113.112 billion, and 133.925 billion in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 5.241 billion, 6.795 billion, and 8.129 billion [10][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company has established a multi-mode positive cycle research and development ecosystem, focusing on metabolic diseases and respiratory diseases, with two innovative drug projects already approved for market and several others in clinical trials [1] - The negative impacts on the company's main business have been largely digested, and it is expected to achieve steady growth in the future, with a projected net profit of 170-210 million yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 94%-140% [2] - The company is expected to see a rebound in its main business, with innovative results gradually contributing to performance elasticity, projecting net profits of 351 million yuan, 435 million yuan, and 513 million yuan for 2025-2027, with corresponding growth rates of 217.4%, 23.8%, and 17.9% [2][3] Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2023 is reported at 2,611 million yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 2.5%. It is expected to recover to 2,810 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 13.9% [3] - The net profit for 2023 is 263 million yuan, with a significant decline of 18.3%. However, it is projected to turn positive in 2025 with a net profit of 351 million yuan [3] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to improve from -0.35 yuan in 2024 to 0.41 yuan in 2025, indicating a recovery trend [3] Market Position and Product Development - The company’s core product, the brain thrombus capsule, is unique in the market, and the company is enhancing its product competitiveness through a combination of evidence-driven and market-driven cultivation models [2] - The innovative drug RAY1225 is progressing smoothly in clinical trials, showing significant potential for weight loss and improvement in metabolic indicators [7] - The company’s flu drug, Angladiwei, has a substantial market potential, with the global flu treatment market reaching 68.738 billion yuan in 2023, and it is expected to achieve rapid market penetration following its approval [7]

证券研究报告 | 半年报点评 gszqdatemark 2025 08 11 年 月 日 燕京啤酒（000729.SZ） 中报再超预期，旺季景气延续 事件：公司发布 2025 年中报，25H1 实现营业收入 85.58 亿元，同比+6.37%，实 现归母净利润 11.03 亿元，同比+45.45%，扣非归母净利润 10.36 亿元，同比 +39.91%。其中 25Q2 实现营业收入 47.31 亿元，同比+6.11%，实现归母净利润 9.38 亿元，同比+43.00%，扣非归母净利润 8.83 亿元，同比+38.43%。 大单品放量优化结构，吨价稳步提升拉动收入。1）分量价来看，25H1 公司啤酒 业务实现营业收入 78.96 亿元，同比+6.88%，其中销量和吨价同比分别+2.03% 和+4.75%至 235.17 万千升和 3358 元/吨，啤酒业务收入的增长主要系吨价的提 升带动。2）分产品类别来看，25H1/普通啤酒分别 中高档 实现营业收入 55.36/23.60 亿元，同比分别 +9.3%/+1.6% ，占比分别 +1.6/-1.6pct 至 70.1%/29.9%，毛利率分别为 51.71%/3 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [2]. Core Viewpoints - The company is a leading global digital management firm for consumer brands, transitioning from e-commerce agency services to self-owned brand incubation, which is experiencing rapid growth [1][13]. - The dual-driven strategy of "agency services + self-owned brands" is leading to an increasing proportion of revenue from self-owned brands [1][15]. - The e-commerce agency industry has seen a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 64% from 2011 to 2018, but growth has slowed to a CAGR of 14% from 2018 to 2023, with the market size reaching 1.78 trillion yuan in 2023 [1][31]. - The company has successfully launched self-owned brands "LYCOCELLE" and "FineNutri," with significant sales growth expected in the coming years [2][15]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company started as an e-commerce agency in 2011 and has evolved into a digital management firm for consumer brands, focusing on brand positioning, store operations, integrated marketing, data mining, and supply chain management [13][14]. - The self-owned brand "LYCOCELLE" focuses on premium clothing care products, while "FineNutri" targets women's anti-aging needs with a focus on specific ingredients [2][13]. Business Analysis - The revenue distribution among agency services, brand management, and self-owned brands is shifting, with self-owned brands increasing from 13.22% in 2022 to an expected 28.37% in 2024 [15]. - The brand management market is projected to grow significantly, with the company transitioning from traditional agency services to brand management [1][31]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 1.37 billion yuan in 2023 to 4.50 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits increasing from 54 million yuan to 338 million yuan [2][4]. - The company expects a revenue growth rate of 52.3% in 2025, followed by 34.8% in 2026 and 24.1% in 2027 [2][4]. Market Position - The company ranks fifth among the top ten e-commerce operators in China, indicating a strong market position [1]. - The brand management market is expected to reach over 580 billion yuan by 2028, with a CAGR of 7.53% from 2023 to 2028 [1][31].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for relevant stocks in the advanced packaging industry [4][8]. Core Insights - The semiconductor market is expected to reach a valuation of $1 trillion by 2030, driven by AI and HPC, with AI terminals projected to account for 45% of the market share [1][12]. - Advanced packaging technologies, particularly CoWoS, are critical for enhancing chip performance and efficiency, with significant upgrades planned for the coming years [2][70]. - Domestic suppliers in the advanced packaging supply chain are poised for growth due to increasing demand and limited overseas capacity [3]. Summary by Sections Semiconductor Market Outlook - AI is set to lead a new growth cycle in the semiconductor market, transitioning from previous drivers like PCs and smartphones [12]. - TSMC projects a threefold increase in energy-efficient performance (EEP) every two years through process upgrades and advanced packaging innovations [15]. Advanced Packaging Technology - CoWoS technology enables high-density chip integration, significantly improving performance and reducing power consumption [70]. - TSMC's advanced packaging platforms, including CoWoS and SoW, are evolving to meet the increasing demands of AI and HPC applications [53][62]. Demand and Supply Dynamics - Major cloud service providers like Google, Meta, and Amazon are increasing their capital expenditures, indicating a robust demand for AI-related technologies [2]. - The supply of CoWoS is currently insufficient to meet demand, prompting TSMC to expand its production capacity [2][3]. Domestic Supply Chain Opportunities - The report highlights the importance of a self-sufficient domestic CoWoS supply chain in China, as local manufacturers enhance their capabilities [3]. - The rapid expansion of advanced packaging capacity is expected to drive growth in the domestic semiconductor supply chain [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Guosheng Fundamental High - Frequency Index was 127.0 points (previous value: 126.9 points), with a week - on - week increase of 5.4 points (previous increase: 5.3 points), and the year - on - year growth rate expanded. The long - short signal factor for interest - rate bonds was 4.7% (previous value: 4.6%) [1][9]. - In terms of production, the industrial production high - frequency index was 126.3 (previous value: 126.2), with a week - on - week increase of 5.0 points (previous increase: 5.0 points), and the year - on - year growth rate remained unchanged [1][9]. - Regarding total demand, the high - frequency index for commercial housing sales was 43.4 (previous value: 43.6), with a week - on - week decrease of 6.4 points (previous decrease: 6.4 points), and the year - on - year decline rate remained unchanged; the high - frequency index for infrastructure investment was 120.1 (previous value: 120.0), with a week - on - week increase of 4.8 points (previous increase: 4.5 points), and the year - on - year growth rate expanded; the high - frequency index for exports was 143.8 (previous value: 143.9), with a week - on - week increase of 3.1 points (previous increase: 3.4 points), and the year - on - year growth rate narrowed; the high - frequency index for consumption was 119.8 (previous value: 119.7), with a week - on - week increase of 2.7 points (previous increase: 2.6 points), and the year - on - year growth rate expanded [1][9]. - In terms of prices, the monthly环比 forecast for CPI was 0.2% (previous value: 0.1%); the monthly环比 forecast for PPI was 0.2% (previous value: 0.2%) [1][9]. - The high - frequency index for inventory was 161.1 (previous value: 161.1), with a week - on - week increase of 9.1 points (previous increase: 9.3 points), and the year - on - year growth rate narrowed. The high - frequency index for transportation was 129.6 (previous value: 129.4), with a week - on - week increase of 9.1 points (previous increase: 9.0 points), and the year - on - year growth rate expanded. The high - frequency index for financing was 233.9 (previous value: 233.3), with a week - on - week increase of 29.7 points (previous increase: 29.7 points), and the year - on - year growth rate remained unchanged [2][10]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Total Index: Fundamental High - Frequency Index Stable - Based on the report "Fundamental High - Frequency Data - An Effective Tool for Taking the Lead in Bond Market Investment" published on September 5, 2023, a high - frequency data system covering overall, production, demand, prices, and financing was constructed, and the Guosheng Fixed - Income Fundamental High - Frequency Index and its sub - items were developed [8]. - During August 4 - 8, 2025, the Guosheng Fundamental High - Frequency Index was 127.0 points, with a year - on - year increase of 5.4 points and an expanding growth rate [1][9]. Production: PTA Operating Rate Declined Significantly - The electric furnace operating rate was 63.5% (previous value: 62.8%); the polyester operating rate was 86.2% (previous value: 86.8%); the semi - tire operating rate was 74.4% (previous value: 74.5%); the full - tire operating rate was 61.0% (previous value: 61.1%); the PTA operating rate was 75.9% (previous value: 79.7%); the PX operating rate was 82.4% (previous value: 82.4%); the coal dispatch at Qinhuangdao Port was 38.0 tons (previous value: 47.5 tons) [11][13]. Real Estate Sales: Transaction Land Premium Rate Declined - The commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 17.9 square meters (previous value: 24.4 square meters); the transaction land premium rate in 100 large - and medium - sized cities was 3.6% (previous value: 9.0%) [22]. Infrastructure Investment: Petroleum Asphalt Operating Rate Declined - The operating rate of petroleum asphalt plants was 31.7% (previous value: 33.1%) [32]. Exports: Export Container Freight Rate Index Continued to Decline - The CCFI index was 1201 points (previous value: 1232 points); the RJ/CRB index was 293.6 points (previous value: 301.9 points) [39]. Consumption: Daily Average Movie Box Office Continued to Rise - The daily average movie box office was 24,143 yuan (previous value: 23,068 yuan) [52]. CPI: Vegetable Wholesale Prices Continued to Rise - The average wholesale price of pork was 20.4 yuan/kg (previous value: 20.5 yuan/kg); the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables was 4.6 yuan/kg (previous value: 4.4 yuan/kg); the average wholesale price of 7 key - monitored fruits was 7.0 yuan/kg (previous value: 7.1 yuan/kg); the average wholesale price of white - striped chickens was 17.4 yuan/kg (previous value: 17.2 yuan/kg) [59]. PPI: Steam Coal Price Continued to Rise - The ex - works price of steam coal (produced in Shanxi) at Qinhuangdao Port was 674 yuan/ton (previous value: 658 yuan/ton); the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil was 67 US dollars/barrel (previous value: 72 US dollars/barrel); the spot settlement price of LME copper was 9613 US dollars/ton (previous value: 9672 US dollars/ton); the spot settlement price of LME aluminum was 2592 US dollars/ton (previous value: 2596 US dollars/ton) [65]. Transportation: Passenger Volume Remained Stable Overall - The subway passenger volume in first - tier cities was 3886 person - times (previous value: 3902 person - times); the road logistics freight rate index was 1050 points (previous value: 1050 points); the number of domestic flights was 14,580 (previous value: 14,562) [77]. Inventory: Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory Increased - The electrolytic aluminum inventory was 19.7 tons (previous value: 18.1 tons); the soda ash inventory was 185.8 tons (previous value: 179.0 tons) [85]. Financing: Local Government Bond Financing Continued to Decline - The net financing of local government bonds was 828 billion yuan (previous value: 2425 billion yuan); the net financing of credit bonds was 1973 billion yuan (previous value: 134 billion yuan); the 6M national - share bank acceptance bill transfer discount rate was 0.7% (previous value: 0.55%); the average value of the bill rate minus the certificate of deposit rate was - 0.9% (previous value: - 1.09%) [93].

Group 1 - The report evaluates the current valuation of the A-share market using the PE (FY) metric, indicating that the overall A-share valuation has entered an overheated zone, with a PE (FY) exceeding the mean plus one standard deviation, reaching a historical percentile of 83.1% [1][16] - The non-financial A-share sector's PE (FY) remains within the mean plus or minus one standard deviation, with a historical percentile of 74.6%, suggesting a relatively reasonable valuation [1][16] - Industries identified as having high valuations based on profit expectations include real estate development, ground weaponry, plastics, coke, and other home appliances [2][18] Group 2 - Defensive investment strategies suggest selecting industries with the lowest valuation levels, such as liquor, oil service engineering, precious metals, non-liquor products, and seasoning fermentation products [2][18] - A balanced approach recommends choosing industries with valuations close to historical averages, including wind power equipment, power grid equipment, communication services, chemical raw materials, and automotive parts [2][18] Group 3 - The report constructs industry portfolios based on valuation characteristics, indicating that high-valuation industry portfolios have an annualized excess return of 0.39% from 2015 to the present, with a monthly win rate of 50.86% [3][26] - Low-valuation industry portfolios show an annualized excess return of -2.63% and a monthly win rate of 45.69%, highlighting the need to be cautious of "value traps" when investing in these sectors [3][26] - Portfolios with reasonable valuations yield an annualized excess return of 2.52% and a monthly win rate of 53.45%, indicating that industries close to historical valuation averages can generate excess returns [3][26] Group 4 - The A-share market experienced a volatile week, reaching a new high but showing a mixed performance, with significant contributions from advanced manufacturing sectors such as defense and robotics [2][32] - The overall A-share index saw a comprehensive increase, with micro-cap stocks and the CSI 2000 index leading the performance, while the ChiNext and Sci-Tech 50 indices lagged [5][36] - The report notes that the current A-share equity risk premium (ERP) is at 3.14%, reflecting a marginal recovery in market risk appetite [2][32]

Group 1: Macro Insights - The core CPI has risen for five consecutive months, reaching a 17-month high, with improvements in service prices and core goods like automobiles and household appliances [6][21] - PPI remains low, with a likelihood of narrowing declines in August due to the "anti-involution" price support effect, although external factors like weak exports and real estate continue to constrain it [6][21] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring economic fundamentals, particularly in export, consumption, and real estate sectors, as potential policy responses may emerge if conditions worsen [5][6] Group 2: Industry Performance - The steel sector has shown significant recovery, with companies like Liugang Co. (601003.SH) demonstrating strong profit growth due to effective cost control and increased production capacity [33] - The lithium market is expected to see price increases driven by supply disruptions and seasonal demand, with companies like Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium highlighted as key players [35][37] - The construction materials sector is influenced by new real estate policies in Beijing, which may lead to increased demand for building materials, particularly in the context of improving second-hand housing transactions [40][42] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Focus on companies benefiting from the shift towards solid-state battery materials, which are expected to see increased demand due to advancements in energy density and applications in emerging fields [43][44] - The report suggests that the 中欧中证 500 index is a valuable investment opportunity due to its low valuation and strong earnings expectations, making it suitable for index enhancement strategies [11][12] - Companies in the AI-driven B2B service sector, such as Focus Technology (002315.SZ), are projected to experience steady revenue growth, supported by the introduction of AI tools to enhance user experience [32]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Maintain Buy" [6] Core Views - The company reported a significant improvement in profitability due to optimized sales expense allocation, with a notable recovery in net profit margins in Q2 2025 [2][3] - The revenue decline has narrowed, supported by enhanced user operations and new product launches, particularly in the high-price segment online and improved pricing strategies offline [1][2] - The company is expected to see revenue growth turn positive in H2 2025, driven by low base effects and contributions from new products [2][3] Financial Performance Summary - For H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 3.53 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 23.4%, and a net profit of 740 million yuan, down 17.3% [1] - In Q2 2025, revenue was 1.74 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 11.5%, but net profit increased by 71.4% to 280 million yuan [1] - The gross margin for Q2 2025 improved by 1.7 percentage points to 68.4%, while the sales expense ratio decreased by 11.0 percentage points to 39.6% [2] - The net profit margin for Q2 2025 rose by 8.9 percentage points to 17.1%, indicating a significant improvement in profitability [2] Future Outlook - The company anticipates that the revenue growth will turn positive in H2 2025, supported by new product launches and strategic marketing resource allocation [2] - The forecast for net profit for 2025-2027 has been slightly adjusted to 830 million, 970 million, and 1.09 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 26.7%, 17.5%, and 12.1% [3]