Report Information - Report Title: "Floating-rate Bonds Panorama: Theoretical Pricing and Practical Applications of Floating-rate Bonds" - Report Date: March 13, 2026 - Analyst: Liu Lu, Zheng Zichen Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core Views - Floating-rate bonds have a relatively small market size and low liquidity, with a current stock of about 0.87 trillion yuan, accounting for only 0.44% of the overall bond market. Their liquidity is significantly weaker than that of similar fixed-rate bonds [2][9]. - The theoretical pricing of floating-rate bonds is based on the DCF model, assuming that the benchmark interest rate remains unchanged after the valuation date. The price does not include market expectations for future benchmark interest rate changes, making them weaker in bull markets and more resilient in bear markets [2][40]. - In reality, the discount rate of floating-rate bonds is often anchored to fixed-rate bonds of the same term, with a liquidity premium of about 10BP. The floating-rate bond - fixed-rate bond spread can be used as a leading indicator of benchmark interest rate changes [3][42]. - When considering the layout of floating-rate bonds in 2026, for those anchored to LPR, their defensive properties are relatively weak due to potential interest rate cuts. For those anchored to DR007, they have stronger defensive properties, especially when there is an expectation of tightening liquidity [3][59]. Summary by Directory PART1: Floating-rate Bonds - An Overview - **Basic Definition**: Floating-rate bonds have a coupon rate composed of a "benchmark interest rate + fixed spread". The benchmark interest rate is usually a money market interest rate indicator, which is adjusted at the beginning of each interest - accruing period, while the fixed spread is determined at issuance and remains unchanged during the bond's tenure [6]. - **Market Scale**: From 1995 - 2025, floating - rate bonds in China went through three development stages: the start - up stage (1995 - 2002), the expansion stage (2003 - 2013), and the mature and fluctuating stage (2014 - 2025). As of February 23, 2026, the stock of floating - rate bonds accounted for only 0.44% of the overall bond market [9]. - **Liquidity**: The liquidity of floating - rate bonds is generally low, significantly weaker than that of similar fixed - rate bonds. For example, in December 2025, the monthly turnover rate of the most active floating - rate bond was only 58.7%, far lower than that of the most active fixed - rate bond at 1271.7% [13]. - **Bond Types**: The issuance of floating - rate bonds in China has long been dominated by policy - financial bonds, with other types participating intermittently. Currently, policy - financial bonds account for over 75% of the stock of floating - rate bonds, followed by commercial bank bonds at about 14% [16][17]. - **Benchmark Interest Rates**: The benchmark interest rates for floating - rate bonds have evolved over time. Currently, DR007 and LPR are the dominant benchmarks, accounting for over 93% of the stock, with DR007 at 57.23% and LPR at 36.23% [24]. - **Maturity Structure**: The issuance term of floating - rate bonds has been shortening. Currently, 1 - 3 - year bonds are the mainstream, accounting for about 85% of the stock [28]. PART2: Theoretical Pricing Mechanism of Floating - rate Bonds - **Pricing Formula**: The valuation of floating - rate bonds is based on the DCF model. To avoid predicting future benchmark interest rates, it is generally assumed that the benchmark interest rate remains unchanged after the valuation date. The pricing formulas of the China Foreign Exchange Trade System and the ChinaBond Valuation Center are basically the same in principle [34][35][36]. - **Impact of Benchmark Interest Rate Fluctuations**: Benchmark interest rate fluctuations have a more significant impact on fixed - rate bonds than on floating - rate bonds. Floating - rate bonds tend to be weaker in bull markets and more resilient in bear markets [38][39][40]. PART3: Real - world Pricing and Application of Floating - rate Bonds - **Pricing with Market Expectations**: In reality, the pricing of floating - rate bonds often includes some market expectations. The discount rate is usually anchored to fixed - rate bonds of the same term, and the floating - rate bond - fixed - rate bond spread can indicate market expectations of interest rate cuts [42]. - **Liquidity Premium**: The valuation yield of floating - rate bonds is generally higher than that of fixed - rate bonds of the same term, with a liquidity premium of about 10BP [44]. - **Indicator of Interest Rate Cuts**: The floating - rate bond - fixed - rate bond spread can be used as a leading indicator of benchmark interest rate changes. An increase in the spread indicates rising market expectations of interest rate cuts [46]. - **Annual Performance**: The conclusion that floating - rate bonds are weaker in bull markets and more resilient in bear markets is generally supported by their annual performance from 2011 - 2025 [48]. - **High - frequency Performance**: From a high - frequency perspective, the combination of changes in the yield to maturity and the benchmark interest rate has different effects on the price of floating - rate bonds. When the benchmark interest rate is stable, the advantages of floating - rate bonds over fixed - rate bonds are not obvious. Floating - rate bonds have defensive properties when the benchmark interest rate is rising and perform weaker when it is falling [50][52][55]. - **2026 Investment Considerations**: For floating - rate bonds anchored to LPR, their defensive properties are relatively weak in 2026 due to potential interest rate cuts. For those anchored to DR007, they have stronger defensive properties, especially when there is an expectation of tightening liquidity [59].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the real estate industry [1] Core Insights - The first batch of commercial real estate REITs involves diverse assets and issuers, with 14 applications totaling over 40 billion yuan, covering office buildings, shopping centers, outlets, hotels, and mixed-use properties [2][11] - The valuation of these REITs is optimistic, with cash flow growth rates for most commercial retail assets ranging from 3.3% to 3.98%, while hotel REITs show varied predictions [2][21] - The report emphasizes the importance of various metrics for hotel investments, including occupancy rates, average daily rates, and GOP Margin, indicating a shift in the hotel industry towards optimizing existing assets rather than expansion [34][35] Summary by Sections Overview of Commercial Real Estate REITs - As of February 2026, 13 commercial real estate REITs have been filed with the Shanghai Stock Exchange and 1 with the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, with a total fundraising target exceeding 40 billion yuan [11] - The assets involved are diverse, including office buildings, shopping centers, outlets, hotels, and mixed-use properties, with a significant presence of mixed assets [11][12] Investment Value Analysis of Hotels, Offices, and Mixed-Use Properties - The report identifies key indicators for hotel investments, such as occupancy rates, average room prices, and GOP Margin, highlighting the operational differences among various hotel types [34][35] - The office market in first-tier cities is currently experiencing oversupply, and the report suggests that office REITs may be comparable to R&D office park REITs [2][21] - The report notes that the valuation of mixed-use properties presents both risk diversification and interdependence challenges, potentially forming a complementary "stability + growth" combination in REIT valuation [2] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that high-quality commercial real estate REITs, such as Guotai Junan and CITIC Construction Investment, have significant allocation value [2] - It encourages active monitoring of companies with rich commercial real estate resources and quality management operators, including China Resources Land and China Overseas Development [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the budget - internal fiscal support for stable growth is expected to reach the second - highest level in the past six years. After deducting risk - prevention expenditures, the budget - internal fiscal expenditure growth rate in 2026 is 2.1%, and the budget - internal generalized deficit rate is 7.7%, both being the second - highest in the past six years. [2][4][6] - Considering urban investment financing, etc., the budget - internal and external fiscal support for stable growth in 2026 is also expected to reach the second - highest level in the past six years. The new urban investment financing scale is expected to rise, and the budget - external generalized deficit scale may reach 10 trillion yuan, the highest in the past six years. The budget - internal and external generalized deficit rate after deducting risk - prevention deficit rate may be 14.5%, second only to 2022 in the past six years. [2][9][13] - Fiscal policy in 2026 is expected to be more front - loaded than in 2025, which may lead to earlier government bond issuance. However, the possibility of fiscal intensification in the second half of 2026 is lower than that in 2025. [2][15][16] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 2026 Budget - Internal Fiscal Support for Stable Growth - **Exclusion of Risk - Prevention Factors**: Government bonds for risk - prevention, including special treasury bonds for bank capital injection, new special bonds for land reserve and purchasing existing housing, and debt - repayment local bonds, will reduce the support for economic growth. In 2026, the scale of risk - prevention government bonds is 4165.5 billion yuan, second only to 2025 in the past six years. [3] - **Budget - Internal Fiscal Expenditure Growth Rate**: After deducting risk - prevention expenditures, the budget - internal fiscal expenditure growth rate in 2026 is expected to be 2.1%, which is the second - highest in the past six years. [4] - **Budget - Internal Generalized Deficit Rate**: The budget - internal generalized deficit rate in 2026 is expected to rise to 9.0%. After deducting risk - prevention factors, it is 7.7%, second only to 2022 in the past six years. [6] 3.2 Considering Urban Investment, etc., 2026 Budget - Internal and External Fiscal Support for Stable Growth - **Expected Increase in New Urban Investment Financing Scale**: New policy - based financial instruments and the delisting of urban investment platforms are conducive to increasing the new urban investment financing scale. In 2026, the new urban investment financing scale is expected to continue to rise. [9] - **Budget - External Generalized Deficit Scale and Rate**: The budget - external generalized deficit scale in 2026 may reach 10 trillion yuan, the highest in the past six years, and the budget - external generalized deficit rate may rise to 6.8%, second only to 2021 in the past six years. [10] - **Budget - Internal and External Generalized Deficit Rate after Deducting Risk - Prevention Deficit Rate**: After deducting risk - prevention deficit rate, the budget - internal and external generalized deficit rate in 2026 may be 14.5%, second only to 2022 in the past six years. [13] 3.3 2026 Fiscal Front - Loading and Possibility of Fiscal Intensification in the Second Half of the Year - **Fiscal Front - Loading**: In 2026, fiscal policy is expected to be more front - loaded than in 2025, which may lead to earlier government bond issuance. This is reflected in policy statements, the earlier launch of new policy - based financial instruments, and the earlier start of local bond issuance. [15][16] - **Possibility of Fiscal Intensification in the Second Half of the Year**: The possibility of fiscal intensification in the second half of 2026 is lower than that in 2025 because the Minister of Finance did not mention "reserve tools" during the Two Sessions in 2026. [2][16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Chongqing Beer (600132.SH) [1] Core Views - In 2025, Chongqing Beer achieved an operating revenue of 14.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.53%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.2 billion yuan, up 10.43% year-on-year. The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.20 yuan per share (before tax) [4] - The company continues to optimize its product structure and enhance operational capabilities, demonstrating strong operational resilience and promoting high-quality development [7] - The international brand revenue grew by 3.47% to 5.49 billion yuan, while local brand revenue decreased by 0.64% to 8.81 billion yuan, indicating a successful high-end strategy [7] - The company forecasts net profits of 1.17 billion yuan and 1.22 billion yuan for 2026 and 2027, respectively, adjusting previous estimates due to raw material cost pressures [7] Financial Summary - **Revenue and Profit Forecasts**: - 2024A: Revenue 14.65 billion yuan, Net Profit 1.11 billion yuan - 2025A: Revenue 14.72 billion yuan, Net Profit 1.23 billion yuan - 2026E: Revenue 14.87 billion yuan, Net Profit 1.17 billion yuan - 2027E: Revenue 15.05 billion yuan, Net Profit 1.22 billion yuan - 2028E: Revenue 15.35 billion yuan, Net Profit 1.29 billion yuan [6][11] - **Profitability Ratios**: - Gross Margin: 50.9% in 2025, projected to be 49.0% in 2026 - Net Margin: 8.4% in 2025, projected to be 7.9% in 2026 - Return on Equity (ROE): 89.4% in 2025, projected to decline to 75.8% in 2026 [6][11] - **Valuation Ratios**: - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: 22.4 in 2025, projected to be 23.6 in 2026 - Price-to-Book (P/B) Ratio: 20.0 in 2025, projected to be 17.9 in 2026 [6][10]

Group 1: Export Performance - In January-February 2026, China's export value increased by 21.8% year-on-year, a rise of 15.2 percentage points compared to December 2025[2] - The global manufacturing PMI index remained above the expansion threshold, indicating a recovery in manufacturing demand, which positively impacted exports[4] - The Lunar New Year effect contributed to a lower base, enhancing the year-on-year export growth rate for January-February 2026[4] Group 2: Import Performance - China's import value grew by 19.8% year-on-year in January-February 2026, with an increase of 14.1 percentage points from December 2025[2] - The increase in imports was driven by mechanical and high-tech products, which saw a rise of 7.0 and 5.5 percentage points respectively compared to 2025[4] - Agricultural products contributed 0.8 percentage points to import growth, reflecting a recovery in demand[4] Group 3: Regional and Product Insights - Exports to developed regions and Belt and Road countries showed significant growth, with the EU contributing 4.1 percentage points to export growth in February 2026[4] - Mechanical and high-tech products were the main drivers of export growth, contributing 16.3 and 6.6 percentage points respectively[4] - Labor-intensive products shifted from a drag to a boost, contributing 2.9 percentage points to export growth[4]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In February 2026, the CPI increased by 1.3% year-on-year, an increase of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, primarily driven by concentrated consumer demand during the extended Spring Festival holiday[2] - Food prices rose by 1.7% in February, reversing a 0.7% decline from the previous month, contributing approximately 0.3 percentage points to the CPI increase[2] - Service prices increased by 1.6%, a rise of 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, contributing about 0.75 percentage points to the CPI[2] - The core CPI rose by 1 percentage point to 1.8%, supported by significant increases in service prices, particularly in travel and household services[2] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI decreased by 0.9% year-on-year in February 2026, with the decline narrowing by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month[2] - The PPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month, marking the fifth consecutive month of growth, maintaining the same growth rate as the previous month[2] - Prices in the mining and processing of non-ferrous metals contributed 0.3 percentage points to the month-on-month PPI increase, driven by rising international prices[2] - The rise in international crude oil prices led to increases in the prices of oil and gas extraction, refined petroleum products, and organic chemical raw materials, contributing a total of 0.15 percentage points to the PPI[2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, indicating expected stock performance to be better than the market by 10% to 20% over the next six months [1][9]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 6.029 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 44.00%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.205 billion yuan, up 75.79% year-on-year [4][9]. - The growth was driven by increased user activity on the company's website and app, alongside a strong demand from financial clients in the securities and fund sectors [7][8]. - The company is focusing on AI and technology integration to enhance product competitiveness and user experience, which is expected to sustain growth in the long term [9][8]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Growth**: The company reported a revenue of 60.29 billion yuan in 2025, with a quarterly revenue of 27.68 billion yuan in Q4, showing a 49.46% year-on-year increase [4][7]. - **Profitability**: The gross margin improved to 91.54% in 2025, with net profit margins reaching 53.2% [7][12]. - **Future Projections**: Expected net profits for 2026, 2027, and 2028 are projected at 4.328 billion yuan, 5.535 billion yuan, and 6.854 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 8.05 yuan, 10.30 yuan, and 12.75 yuan [9][11]. Cash Flow and Financial Health - The operating cash flow for 2025 was 3.774 billion yuan, reflecting a 63.00% increase year-on-year [8][13]. - The company maintained a strong cash position with total assets of 15.833 billion yuan and a debt ratio of 40.0% [11][12].

证券研究报告 银行业月报 开年投放稳健，中小行修复可期 银行行业 强于大市（维持） 证券分析师 核心摘要 袁喆奇 投资咨询资格编号：S1060520080003 李冰婷 投资咨询资格编号：S1060520040002 许 淼 投资咨询资格编号：S1060525020001 研究助理 李灵琇 一般证券业务编号：S1060124070021 2026年3月10日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 注：全文所指银行指数均为银行（中信）指数； 2 行业核心观点：重配置轻交易，关注中小行弹性。我们认为投资者需要重视A股配置资金结构变化对于抬升银行长期估值中枢的作用，目前板块股息率平均达到4.49%， 结合监管一系列引导中长期资金入市的措施，预计板块的股息配置价值吸引力仍将持续。从个体来看，我们继续看好高股息的国有大行板块和股份行（招行、兴业） 的配置价值。此外值得注意的是，在行业盈利边际改善的背景下，我们认为部分优质区域行的盈利弹性有望提升， 重点推荐上海、苏州、成都、长沙、江苏。同时， 建议关注资本市场活跃对优质零售银行带来的潜在提振。 26年一季度前瞻：信贷增速稳健，息差降幅收窄。我们预计1季度银行经营整维持稳健，盈利或有 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report reviews two rounds of A-share cyclical sector market trends since 2018, analyzes the changes in the holdings of cyclical theme funds, and conducts a detailed analysis of several cyclical fund managers [2]. - The cyclical sector has experienced two rounds of market trends since 2018. The first was from Q2 2020 to Q3 2021, driven by supply-demand mismatch after the global post-pandemic recovery. The second started in July 2025, driven by a weakening US dollar, global political and economic restructuring, and structural supply constraints in non-ferrous metals [2][5]. - The scale of cyclical theme funds has increased with several market trends, with significant overall fluctuations. Long - term cyclical theme actively managed funds can achieve relatively stable excess returns [2][20]. - The report analyzes the investment frameworks, performance contributions, industry allocations, stock - selection preferences, and trading capabilities of four cyclical fund managers: Han Chuang, Li Wenhai, Mu Yaqian, and Li You [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Cycle Sector Market Review - **2020 Q2 - 2021 Q3**: The main driving factor was the supply - demand mismatch after the global post - pandemic recovery. The pandemic disrupted the global supply chain, and after the pandemic, large - scale fiscal stimulus overseas boosted commodity demand. The "dual - carbon" policy in China strengthened the supply - side contraction logic, leading to a sharp increase in commodity prices [2][7]. - **Since July 2025**: The main driving factors are a weakening US dollar, global political and economic restructuring, and structural supply constraints in non - ferrous metals. The "anti - involution" policy has accelerated the exit of backward production capacity. Non - ferrous metals led the market, and the market trend gradually spread from non - ferrous metals to sectors such as basic chemicals and petroleum and petrochemicals [2][11]. 3.2 Cycle Theme Fund Holdings Trends - **Scale and Performance**: The scale of cyclical theme funds has increased with market trends, with large fluctuations. Since Q3 2025, the scale has increased significantly. Actively managed cyclical theme funds can achieve relatively stable excess returns in the long run, as cyclical sectors have strong timing attributes [20]. - **Industry Allocation Characteristics**: Cyclical theme funds focus on non - ferrous metals, transportation, and basic chemicals. In 2025, the proportion of non - ferrous metals and basic chemicals increased, and they focus on sub - sectors such as industrial metals, precious metals, and aviation airports [21]. - **Funds with Growth Potential**: 40 cyclical theme growth - style funds were selected using the Morningstar style box to calculate growth scores [33]. 3.3 Cycle Theme Fund Manager Case Analysis 3.3.1 Han Chuang (Dacheng New - Edge Industry) - **Investment Framework**: Focuses on industry prosperity, company competitive advantages, and reasonable valuations, with a preference for resource products with obvious supply constraints [41]. - **Performance Attribution**: Both industry allocation and stock - selection and trading are important sources of excess returns. The main return - contributing sectors are industrial metals, precious metals, and automotive parts [54]. - **Industry Allocation**: In 2019, it was a full - market allocation. From 2020 - 2022, it increased positions in the cyclical sector, especially basic chemicals and non - ferrous metals. In 2023 - 2024, it increased positions in industrial metals. In 2025, it gradually took profits in industrial metals and increased positions in precious metals [56]. - **Stock - Selection Preferences**: Holds stocks with small - market - cap characteristics, relatively low total market value, and relatively high profitability [68]. - **Trading Capabilities**: Low trading frequency, high stock - holding concentration, and 28 effective stocks at the end of H1 2025 [68]. 3.3.2 Li Wenhai (Rongtong Industry Trend Selection) - **Investment Framework**: Combines top - down and bottom - up approaches, with a focus on industry forward - looking layout and stock - selection based on profit realization or inflection points, emphasizing valuation cost - effectiveness [71]. - **Performance Attribution**: Stock - selection and trading are the main sources of excess returns. The main return - contributing sectors are communication equipment, electricity, and precious metals [83]. - **Industry Allocation**: Heavily invested in the public utilities sector, especially the electricity and gas sectors. In 2024, it switched to non - ferrous metals and other sectors. In 2025, it increased positions in industrial metals and diversified the sector allocation [85]. - **Stock - Selection Preferences**: Holds stocks with low - valuation and high - growth characteristics, relatively high profit growth, and relatively low valuation [100]. - **Trading Capabilities**: High trading frequency, low stock - holding concentration, and 57 effective stocks at the end of H1 2025 [100]. 3.3.3 Mu Yaqian (ICBC Core Opportunity) - **Investment Framework**: Combines prosperity investment and quality investment, focuses on market expectations in the cyclical sector, and controls drawdowns. It also has a certain position in Hong Kong stocks to increase returns through AH premium [103]. - **Performance Attribution**: Stock - selection and trading are the main sources of excess returns. The main return - contributing sectors are precious metals, industrial metals, and energy metals [115]. - **Industry Allocation**: Initially built positions in the cyclical sector, focusing on industrial metals. Then it continuously increased positions in precious metals and industrial metals, and adjusted positions in other sectors [117]. - **Stock - Selection Preferences**: Holds large - cap and low - valuation stocks, with relatively high market value and relatively low valuation [129]. - **Trading Capabilities**: High trading frequency, high stock - holding concentration, and 31 effective stocks at the end of H1 2025 [129]. 3.3.4 Li You (Chuangjin Hexin Resources Theme) - **Investment Framework**: Selects high - quality sectors from a top - down perspective based on industry trends and competitive landscapes, and selects growth - oriented leading stocks from a bottom - up perspective, emphasizing safety margins [132]. - **Performance Attribution**: Both industry allocation and stock - selection and trading are important sources of excess returns. The main return - contributing sectors are industrial metals, coal mining, photovoltaic equipment, and precious metals [142]. - **Industry Allocation**: From 2017 - 2019, it increased positions in industrial metals, energy metals, and refining and trading. From 2020 - 2022, it adjusted positions in different sectors. From 2023 - 2024, it continued to increase positions in industrial metals. In 2025, it concentrated on industrial metals and adjusted positions in precious metals [145]. - **Stock - Selection Preferences**: Holds large - cap and high - profit - quality stocks, with relatively high market value and profit quality [159]. - **Trading Capabilities**: Low trading frequency, moderate stock - holding concentration, and 40 effective stocks at the end of H1 2025 [159].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock performance that will exceed the market by more than 20% within the next six months [12]. Core Views - The company is experiencing short-term performance pressure due to multiple factors, including slower-than-expected execution of traditional Chinese medicine procurement and ongoing healthcare cost control policies. This has impacted both existing and new business segments [7][8]. - The company is undergoing a critical internal transformation, focusing on enhancing brand and market development while leveraging resources from its major shareholder, China Resources Sanjiu, to support retail business growth [7][8]. - The introduction of a new basic drug directory management approach is expected to benefit the company, particularly for products with strong evidence in clinical efficacy [7][8]. Financial Summary - The company forecasts a revenue of 6.577 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-over-year decline of 21.72%. The expected net profit attributable to shareholders is 350 million yuan, down 46% year-over-year [3][8]. - Revenue projections for 2026 and 2027 are 6.916 billion yuan and 7.281 billion yuan, respectively, with expected growth rates of 5.2% and 5.3% [8]. - Key financial metrics include a projected gross margin of 38.8% for 2025 and a net margin of 5.3% [6][10]. Business Outlook - The company is positioned to recover growth as it completes its channel reform and adjusts its product offerings. The 777 series products and premium national medicine segments are anticipated to resume growth [8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of strategic investments in brand building and market expansion to enhance sales performance in the long term [7][8].