Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "stronger than the market," indicating an expected performance exceeding the market by more than 5% over the next six months [26]. Core Views - The report highlights a mixed performance in the consumer sector, with certain sub-industries like media and home appliances showing positive growth, while others like food and beverage and retail are experiencing declines [2][4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on companies with strong earnings visibility as the third-quarter earnings reports are being released [2]. - Key investment themes include high-end liquor, fast-growing beverage companies, and the potential of the tourism sector as consumer spending rebounds [2]. Summary by Sections Food and Beverage - Alcohol - The launch of limited edition products is expected to drive sales growth, particularly for leading companies in market management and branding [2]. - Focus areas include high-end liquor, next-tier liquor with national expansion, and local market strongholds [2]. Food and Beverage - Mass Market - The report suggests identifying high-growth sectors through third-quarter earnings, recommending companies like Dongpeng Beverage and Yili Group [2][15]. - Dairy products are expected to benefit from holiday season stocking, with major dairy companies entering a profit recovery phase [2]. Social Services - The tourism sector is projected to benefit from increasing consumer spending, with recommendations for companies like Ctrip and Huazhu Group [2]. - The beauty market is evolving, with domestic brands gaining traction, particularly those responsive to consumer needs [2]. Apparel and Textiles - The sports consumption sector is supported by policy, with investment opportunities in outdoor sports brands like Anta Sports [2][17]. Media - Companies that can tap into consumer sentiment and emotional trends are likely to find opportunities, with a focus on brands like Pop Mart [2][18].

Group 1: Industrial Sector - Industrial product futures prices increased, with the South China industrial product index rising by 2.8%[2] - Steel and building materials production and apparent demand improved, with cement clinker capacity utilization rising[2] - Polyester and weaving industry operating rates showed marginal recovery, while automotive tire production rates rebounded[2] Group 2: Real Estate - New home sales in 30 major cities decreased by 21.0% year-on-year, a decline of 1.1 percentage points from the previous week[2] - The second-hand housing listing price index fell by 0.92% in the last four weeks as of October 13[2] - New home sales in October showed a year-on-year decline of 23.4%, a drop from the previous month[2] Group 3: Domestic Demand - Retail sales of automobiles decreased by 6% year-on-year from October 1-19, with a preliminary estimate of a 2.6% decline for the month[2] - Major home appliance retail sales fell by 17.0% year-on-year, a drop of 13.4 percentage points from the previous value[2] - Domestic flight operations increased by 2.3% year-on-year, while the Baidu migration index rose by 11.5%[2] Group 4: External Demand - Port cargo throughput increased by 0.9% year-on-year as of October 19, while container throughput rose by 4.3%[2] - The China export container freight index increased by 2.0% week-on-week, with Shanghai and Ningbo export container prices continuing to rise[2] - South Korea's export value increased by 9.7% year-on-year for the first 20 working days of October, although the growth rate declined from September[2] Group 5: Price Trends - Futures prices for coking coal rose by 5.9%, with spot prices in Shanxi increasing by 5.0%[2] - Rebar futures closed up by 0.3%, with spot prices rising by 0.1%[2] - The overall industrial product price performance showed a positive trend, with various indices reflecting increases in key materials[2]

Economic Indicators - The U.S. September CPI increased by 3% year-on-year, lower than the expected 3.1%[3] - Core CPI for September showed a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, also below market expectations[3] - The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell to a five-month low of 53.6, down from 55.1 in September[3] Market Performance - As of October 24, U.S. stock indices, including the S&P 500, rose by 1.9%, while European STOXX600 increased by 1.7%[16] - Japanese stocks surged following the election of Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, with the Nikkei 225 index rising by 3.6%[16] - Gold prices experienced their largest single-day drop in five years, reflecting reduced safe-haven demand[14] Global Economic Trends - Eurozone manufacturing PMI rose to 50, while services PMI increased to 52.6, marking a 14-month high[3] - The UK September CPI remained flat at 3.8%, below the expected 4%, with core CPI slowing to 3.5%[3] - Japan's core CPI rose by 2.9% year-on-year, indicating a potential for interest rate hikes in the near future[12] Commodity and Currency Movements - Oil prices rebounded, with Brent and WTI crude oil increasing by 7.6% and 6.9%, respectively[21] - The U.S. dollar index rose by 0.39%, while the Japanese yen and British pound depreciated against the dollar[24]

Core Insights - The report highlights that the easing trade tensions and moderate inflation in the US have raised expectations for interest rate cuts, leading to new highs in US stocks and the dollar, while gold has retreated from its highs and oil prices have risen due to sanctions on Russian oil [2][10][15] - The MSCI global index rose by 1.77%, with markets in China, South Korea, and Japan leading the gains. The small-cap stocks and Nasdaq outperformed, with the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Russell 2000 indices increasing by 2.2%, 2.3%, 1.9%, and 2.5% respectively [2][10][14] - The US 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields changed by 0bp and 2bp to 4.02% and 3.48% respectively, while the dollar index rose by 0.39% to 98.9 [2][15] Economic Fundamentals - The US CPI for September showed a slight year-on-year increase, with a small month-on-month decline. Core CPI decreased both year-on-year and month-on-month, indicating a moderate overall performance. Energy prices were a significant support factor, while core goods saw a decline due to falling used car prices [3][5] - The consumer confidence index for October fell to 53.6 from 55.1, marking the third consecutive month of decline, reflecting the impact of price burdens and weak employment [2][3] Policy Environment - The ongoing US government shutdown may affect the distribution of SNAP benefits, impacting approximately 42 million low-income individuals. The Senate has not advanced a proposed funding bill, and if the shutdown continues, it could disrupt benefit payments scheduled for November 1 [2][6] - Trade negotiations between the US and China are set to take place from October 24 to 27 in Malaysia, amidst ongoing tensions. The US Trade Representative has initiated a "301 clause" investigation into China's compliance with the 2020 trade agreement [2][6] Market Performance - The report notes that the US stock market is facing increased volatility after reaching new highs, with upcoming earnings reports from major tech companies posing a potential "sell the news" risk. Additionally, the government shutdown and US-China trade negotiations could further disrupt the market [2][16] - In the Hong Kong market, positive policy signals from the Fourth Plenary Session have led to a notable rebound, with the Hang Seng Technology Index leading the gains at 5.2% [2][36] Sector Analysis - The report suggests focusing on three main investment themes: technology growth sectors (AI, internet, semiconductors), sectors expected to improve (new energy, building materials, traditional cycles), and new consumption areas benefiting from domestic policy support and changing consumer structures [2][36] - In the US market, the technology and energy sectors led the gains, with solid performance from solid-state batteries, online education, and lithium battery concepts [19][25]

证券研究报告 金融行业周报 ——央行等学习四中全会精神，三季度贷款投向报告发布 证券分析师 王维逸S1060520040001（证券投资咨询） 袁喆奇S1060520080003（证券投资咨询） 李冰婷S1060520040002（证券投资咨询） 许 淼S1060525020001（证券投资咨询） 研究助理 李灵琇S1060124070021（一般证券业务） 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 2025年10月27日 1 核心观点 央行等学习四中全会精神，三季度贷款投向报告发布 1、央行、金管局、证监会传达学习党的二十届四中全会精神。10月24日，央行、国家金融监管总局、证监会、外汇局等召开党 委会议，传达学习党的二十届四中全会精神，研究部署贯彻落实措施。分析了当前形势和任务，强调坚决实现全年经济社会发 展目标，以及"着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，稳住经济基本盘"。并且指出"宏观政策要持续发力、适时加力"， "落实好企业帮扶政策，深入实施提振消费专项行动"。前三季度实际GDP同比增长5.2%为全年实现5%的目标打下良好基础，但 三季度单季4.8%、投资和消费放缓较快的特征意味着四季度仍需巩固需求端。 2、央行发布 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the oil and petrochemical sector [1]. Core Viewpoints - The oil price has seen an increase due to intensified sanctions by the U.S. and Canada on Russian oil companies, with WTI crude futures rising by 6.53% and Brent crude futures by 7.09% from October 17 to October 24, 2025 [6]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding the fragile ceasefire in Gaza and the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, continue to impact oil prices [6]. - The U.S. government plans to purchase 1 million barrels of oil to replenish its strategic reserves, which may provide short-term support for oil prices [6]. - In the fluorochemical sector, the supply of popular refrigerants is tight, leading to sustained price increases, with domestic demand for refrigerants expected to rise in the fourth quarter [6]. - The semiconductor materials sector is experiencing a positive trend with inventory reduction and improving fundamentals, driven by domestic substitution [7]. Summary by Sections Oil and Petrochemicals - The report highlights the impact of U.S. sanctions on Russian oil companies and geopolitical tensions on oil prices [6]. - Basic data tracking indicates a slight decrease in U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, while gasoline and jet fuel inventories continue to decline [6][15]. - The report suggests that domestic oil companies are diversifying their oil and gas sources to reduce sensitivity to oil price fluctuations [7]. Fluorochemicals - The supply of second-generation refrigerants is decreasing due to policy restrictions, while demand for third-generation refrigerants is expected to grow, driven by government incentives [6]. - The report notes that the production of household air conditioners is projected to increase significantly in the last quarter of 2025, which will boost demand for refrigerants [6]. Semiconductor Materials - The semiconductor materials sector is witnessing an upward cycle, with inventory reduction trends and improving end-market conditions [7]. - The report recommends focusing on companies in the semiconductor materials sector that are benefiting from domestic substitution and cyclical recovery [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Participation in the expansion can be achieved through primary subscription and secondary market trading. Primary subscription is suitable for allocation - oriented investors, allowing for large - scale allocation and having a shorter lock - up period than IPO projects. However, profitability is related to the subscription timing. Original equity holders are important participants in the expansion, with historical subscription ratios ranging from 20% to 51%. Non - existing investors also have the opportunity to participate in primary subscription. The subscription price of the expansion is about 90% - 100% of the pricing benchmark. The valuation of the expanded shares is related to the offering timing and asset quality. Compared with current IPO projects, the primary - secondary price difference of expansion projects is smaller, with an average first - day listing increase of only 1%. Considering the lock - up period of more than 6 months, the primary subscription return will be significantly affected by the overall market trend, and the new - share subscription strategy has limited effectiveness [3]. - Secondary market trading is divided into dividend - based trading and event - based trading. For dividend - based trading, after the expansion plan is announced, the change in dividends can be calculated based on the distribution rate difference, expansion discount rate, and expansion market value ratio, and the theoretical price increase or decrease of REITs can be calculated accordingly. For existing investors, whether to participate in the expansion does not affect subsequent dividends. If dividends are thickened, they should continue to hold; if thinned, they can consider reducing their holdings. For incremental investors, they can buy assets likely to expand when the secondary market meets their cash distribution rate requirements and wait for dividend thickening. For event - based trading, there are short - term trading opportunities during the expansion process. The best time to buy is when the issuer replies to the exchange's inquiries, with a 100% win - rate for buying on that day and selling after holding for 1 day. The exchange's approval day is also a good time [4]. - Looking ahead, expansion may be an important way of new supply in the next 1 - 2 years. For investors, the most important thing about expansion is to provide relatively abundant asset supply to meet their allocation needs. This is because the development time of mainland China's REITs is short, although the number has exceeded that of Japan, the average market value is low, and policy support for expansion is obvious. As of October 24, 2025, there are 5 projects that have announced expansion plans but have not completed the offering and listing, distributed in 4 industries: affordable housing, industrial parks, energy, and consumption; another 6 projects have released expansion information but have no detailed expansion plans [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Primary Subscription: Pricing Process, Valuation Comparison, and Returns 1.1 Pricing Process - The expansion pricing process is similar to that of IPO, with three important announcement nodes: the prospectus determines the asset situation, approximate pricing range, and offering method; the share - holders' meeting proposal announces strategic investors and lock - up periods; the private placement offering report announces the offering price [8][9]. - The main participants are original equity holders and new investors. According to historical expansion cases, the subscription ratio of original equity holders ranges from 20% to 51%, and the subscription price is about 90% - 100% of the benchmark price [10][13]. 1.2 Valuation Comparison - Vertically compared, expansion shares are more expensive than IPO shares, which may be related to the decline in the risk - free rate in recent years. Generally, the distribution rate of expansion is lower than that of IPO, but for some projects like Bosera Shekou Industrial Park and Guotai Junan Dongjiu, the expansion distribution rate is higher, possibly due to the lower quality of expansion assets. The distribution rate difference of CICC GLP is not obvious [14][18]. - Horizontally compared, there is no significant difference in the valuation of expansion shares and contemporaneous IPO shares. The cash distribution rate of expansion projects is in the middle among contemporaneous IPO projects in the same industry [19]. 1.3 Returns - The first - day listing increase of expansion projects is lower than that of IPO projects. The primary - secondary price difference of expansion projects is small because the expansion pricing is not less than 90% of the secondary - market price of individual bonds. The longer the holding period, the more it is affected by the overall market trend. For example, the first batch of expansion projects in 2023 had negative returns for holding half - year and one - year, which is related to the bear market of REITs in 2023 [23][26]. 2. Secondary Market: Dividend - Based Trading and Event - Based Trading 2.1 Dividend - Based Trading - The change in dividends is determined by the difference between the distribution rate of expansion assets multiplied by the discount rate and the pre - expansion distribution rate, as well as the expansion market value ratio. The expansion market value ratio determines the amplitude of the thickening or weakening of dividends [29]. - After the expansion plan is announced, the change in dividends can be calculated, and the theoretical increase or decrease of REITs can be estimated by discounting the dividend change. According to historical cases, the theoretical increase or decrease of implemented expansion plans ranges from - 2% to 16%. In practice, there is a large difference between the actual and theoretical increases or decreases, which may be related to the market situation [33][34]. 2.2 Event - Based Trading - There are short - term event - based trading opportunities during the expansion process. The best time to buy is when the issuer replies to the exchange's inquiries, with a 100% win - rate for buying on that day and selling after holding for 1 day. The exchange's approval day is also a good time. This strategy is suitable for short - term trading, and the return for holding 3 days is likely to be lower than that for holding 1 day [36][38]. 3. Market Outlook - Expansion may be an important way of new supply for REITs in the next 1 - 2 years. Mainland China's REITs have a short development time, with a larger number but lower average market value compared to Japan. Policy support for expansion is obvious. As of October 24, 2025, there are 5 projects that have announced expansion plans but have not completed the offering and listing, and 6 projects have released expansion information but no detailed plans [41][44].

Core Viewpoints - The A-share market experienced a rebound, with the technology sector regaining momentum, driven by improved risk appetite due to easing geopolitical tensions and favorable U.S. inflation data [2][16] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" development goals were clarified during the Fourth Plenary Session, emphasizing technological self-reliance and the cultivation of emerging industries [2][6] - The report suggests focusing on three main investment themes: technology growth sectors, industries benefiting from policy support, and consumer sectors with low valuations [2][16] Recent Economic Data - The GDP growth rate for Q3 was reported at 4.8%, a decrease from 5.4% in Q1 and 5.2% in Q2, indicating a marginal slowdown in economic growth [3][4] - Industrial production showed a year-on-year increase of 6.5% in September, with high-tech industries growing at 10.3% [3][4] - Retail sales growth slowed to 3.0% in September, reflecting the diminishing effects of the "trade-in" policy [3][4] Policy Tracking - The Fourth Plenary Session outlined major goals for the "14th Five-Year Plan," including significant improvements in high-quality development and technological self-reliance [6][7] - The session emphasized the importance of addressing rural issues and promoting urban-rural integration, with an estimated market space of around 10 trillion yuan over the next five years [6][7] - Financial policies will focus on maintaining stability in capital markets and enhancing the resilience of the financial system [6][7] Market Performance - The A-share market saw significant gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 2.9% and the ChiNext Index increasing by 8.0% [2][16] - Among 31 sectors, 28 reported positive returns, with telecommunications, electronics, and power equipment sectors leading the gains [2][16] - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market decreased to 1.8 trillion yuan, a drop of 18.04% from the previous week [2][16] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on sectors that are expected to benefit from both domestic and external demand, particularly in technology and traditional cyclical industries [2][16] - It also highlights the potential for improvement in sectors driven by policy support and those currently undervalued in the consumer space [2][16] - The report notes the importance of monitoring the upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" guidelines and quarterly earnings reports for further investment insights [20]

Group 1: Economic Development Highlights - The focus has shifted to "centering economic construction," emphasizing expanding domestic demand and the interaction between new demand and new supply[2] - Laborers' share of total income has increased from 49.8% in 2012 to 53.6% in 2023, indicating a significant rise in income distribution[2] - The proportion of fiscal budget spending on people's livelihoods has risen from 32.6% in 2012 to 36.7% in 2024, highlighting increased investment in social welfare[2] - China's final consumption rate in 2023 was 56.8%, which is 10.5 percentage points lower than the average of middle-income countries and 19.2 percentage points lower than high-income countries, indicating potential for growth in consumption[2] Group 2: Technological Advancements - A new goal of significantly improving "self-reliance and strength in technology" has been introduced, reflecting the importance of technological innovation[2] - In 2022, 47% of researchers in the top 20% of global AI institutions were of Chinese nationality, showcasing China's talent pool in cutting-edge technology[2] - China has achieved notable successes in industries such as new energy and high-end manufacturing during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, leveraging its talent and institutional advantages[2] Group 3: Industrial and Trade Strategy - The meeting emphasized the importance of maintaining a reasonable proportion of manufacturing, with China's manufacturing value added accounting for nearly 30% of the global total[3] - The global supply chain is shifting towards localization and diversification due to rising protectionism and geopolitical tensions, presenting new opportunities for China's industrial transformation[3] - The strategy of "expanding high-level opening-up" has been elevated, aiming to counter trade protectionism and enhance China's role in global trade[3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the company, indicating an expected stock performance that is better than the market by 10% to 20% over the next six months [12]. Core Insights - The company benefits from a continued upward trend in refrigerant prices, leading to sustained profit growth. The supply constraints in the fluorinated refrigerant market, combined with strong demand, support this price increase [5][9]. - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for Q3 2025, with revenue reaching 7.062 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.22%, and net profit of 1.197 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 186.55% [4][5]. Summary by Relevant Sections Company Overview - The company, Juhua Co., Ltd. (600160.SH), operates in the basic chemical industry, with a total market capitalization of 96.2 billion yuan and a major shareholder, Juhua Group, holding 52.70% [1]. Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 7.062 billion yuan, a 21.22% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.197 billion yuan, reflecting a 186.55% increase year-on-year. The net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 1.173 billion yuan, up 200.44% year-on-year [4][5]. Business Segments - The fluorinated refrigerant segment saw a production increase of 9.91% in Q3 2025, with unit prices rising by 52.58% year-on-year, leading to a revenue of 3.266 billion yuan, a 36.41% increase year-on-year [5]. - The fluorinated polymer segment experienced a production increase of 3.60%, with revenue reaching 499 million yuan, a 7.41% increase year-on-year [6]. - The fluorinated fine chemicals segment also saw a production increase of 9.97%, contributing to a revenue of 95 million yuan, an 8.48% increase year-on-year [6]. Market Outlook - The company is positioned as a leader in the fluorochemical and specialty chlor-alkali sectors, with significant quotas for both second and third-generation refrigerants. The supply constraints due to quota limitations are expected to enhance the company's competitive advantage [9]. - The report anticipates continued strong performance in the refrigerant market, with projected net profits of 4.025 billion yuan, 4.675 billion yuan, and 5.228 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [9].