债券研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券周报】 再议债市的宏观线索：反内卷、城市会议、 关税谈判——债券周报 20250720 债券周报 2025 年 07 月 20 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：周冠南 电话：010-66500886 邮箱：zhouguannan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360517090002 证券分析师：靳晓航 电话：010-66500819 邮箱：jinxiaohang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522080003 证券分析师：许洪波 电话：010-66500905 邮箱：xuhongbo@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522090004 证券分析师：宋琦 电话：010-63214665 邮箱：songqi@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523080002 联系人：李阳 邮箱：liyang3@hcyjs.com 联系人：张威 邮箱：zhangwei7@hcyjs.com 相关研究报告 《 【华创固收】旺季兑现，"反内卷"提振价格 预期——每周高频跟踪 20250719》 2025-07-19 《【华创固收】"反内卷"行情持续升温，强赎集 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for investment in the stablecoin sector, emphasizing its potential to revolutionize global payment efficiency and its implications for the financial system [2][10]. Core Insights - Stablecoins represent a technological innovation that enhances global payment efficiency while also reflecting the digital extension of dollar hegemony and the ongoing competition within sovereign financial systems [2][10]. - The future development of stablecoins will depend on the maturation of regulatory frameworks and the evolution of a multipolar stablecoin ecosystem, which could determine their role as a core component of inclusive global financial infrastructure [2][10]. Summary by Sections Stablecoin 1.0: Efficiency Revolution in Traditional Payment Models - Stablecoins leverage smart contracts for automated payments, reducing credit risk and enhancing efficiency [11][12]. - They significantly lower cross-border payment costs, with fees dropping to as low as $0.00025 per transaction compared to traditional systems [19][20]. - In high-inflation economies, stablecoins serve as a hedge against inflation and facilitate cross-border settlements [27][28]. Stablecoin 2.0: Digital Extension of the Dollar - As of July 4, 2025, the global stablecoin market is valued at $241.634 billion, predominantly backed by the US dollar [30][32]. - The issuance of stablecoins is expected to increase demand for US Treasury securities, reinforcing the dollar's dominance [33][36]. Stablecoin 3.0: New Variables for Global Financial Stability - The stability of stablecoins relies on trust mechanisms, with potential systemic risks emerging from liquidity and credit risks [37][42]. - The rise of stablecoins may challenge sovereign monetary policies and reduce the effectiveness of macroeconomic controls [38][42]. Stablecoin 4.0: Future Compliance and Ecosystem Integration - The report anticipates four concurrent trends in stablecoin development: regulatory frameworks enhancing compliance, deeper integration with traditional finance, the creation of stablecoin application ecosystems, and the emergence of a multipolar stablecoin system [45][52]. - Regulatory developments in regions like the EU, the US, and Hong Kong are expected to shape the future landscape of stablecoins [46][48].

证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券日报】 质押券取消冻结：境内与境外、当下与未来 ❖ 2025 年 7 月 18 日，央行发布《中国人民银行关于修改部分规章的决定（征求 意见稿）》起草说明。其中，第二方面内容取消对债券回购的质押券进行冻结 的规定，引发市场关注。 ❖ 一、现行情况：回购交易的质押券原户冻结 1、法律规定，质权自权利凭证交付时设立。按照《民法典》第四百四十一条 的相关内容，有价证券出质的质权的设立以汇票、本票、支票、债券、存款单、 仓单、提单出质的，质权自权利凭证交付质权人时设立。 2、现行情况：考虑质押物出质后质权人或存在不当使用的问题，质押券采用 原户冻结的模式。债券登记托管结算机构可依法为债券持有人提供债券质押 登记服务，对相应债券进行冻结。一方面，债券质押品被冻结在资金融入方账 户，无法继续在二级市场流通。另一方面，出现债务人违约等情况，债权人可 能无法及时处置质押物来实现债权，或面临一定的损失风险。 ❖ 二、美欧及香港经验：质押券逆回购方可再使用 1、美欧：目前美欧操作中，逆回购方可使用质押券进行再融资。相关法律规 定，对手方同意的情况下，资金融出方能够对作为抵押品的金融工具行使重复 使用 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the communication industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [36]. Core Insights - The optical module industry has shown unexpected growth in the first half of 2025, with major companies reporting over 50% year-on-year profit increases, driven by the demand for 800G products [22][26]. - NVIDIA's H20 chip is set to re-enter the Chinese market, which is expected to enhance the domestic computing power supply chain and benefit related sectors such as IDC [19][17]. - The communication sector has outperformed the broader market indices, with a 7.56% increase in the past week, and a 17.82% increase year-to-date, significantly surpassing the performance of the CSI 300 index [9][10]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The communication industry consists of 123 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 492.49 billion yuan [3]. - The sector's performance has been strong, with a year-to-date increase of 17.82%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 14.67 percentage points [9]. Market Performance - The communication sector's absolute performance over the last month, six months, and twelve months stands at 8.7%, 18.6%, and 30.5%, respectively [4]. - The sector's PE-TTM is reported at 35.94, compared to 13.39 for the CSI 300 index [9]. Key Companies and Recommendations - Key recommendations include China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom for operators; for optical modules, NewEase, Tianfu Communication, and Zhongji Xuchuang are highlighted [30]. - The report suggests monitoring companies like Aofei Data, Guanghuan New Network, and Runze Technology in the IDC sector due to the anticipated benefits from the H20 chip's market re-entry [19][30]. Optical Module Market - Major optical module suppliers in China have reported significant profit growth, with NewEase's net profit expected to increase by 327.68%-385.47% year-on-year [22]. - The demand for 800G and 1.6T products is driving the market, with expectations of continued growth in the coming quarters [26][24].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the express delivery industry, indicating an expected increase in the industry index exceeding the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [2][30]. Core Insights - The express delivery industry experienced a business volume growth of 15.8% in June, with a total of 16.87 billion packages delivered, and a cumulative growth of 19.3% for the first half of the year [5][8]. - The industry's revenue in June reached 126.32 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.0%, with a cumulative revenue of 718.78 billion yuan for the first half, up 10.1% year-on-year [5][8]. - The average revenue per package in June was 7.49 yuan, down 5.9% year-on-year, with a cumulative average of 7.52 yuan for the first half, down 7.7% [5][8]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The express delivery industry is showing signs of recovery with significant growth in business volume and revenue, driven by major players like SF Express, which led the growth with a 31.8% increase in June [5][6]. - The report highlights the ongoing "anti-involution" trend in the industry, which is expected to enhance the performance elasticity of express delivery companies in the medium to long term [5][8]. Company Performance - SF Express continues to lead the market with a year-to-date growth rate of 31.8%, outperforming the industry average [5][6]. - In terms of revenue growth for June, SF Express reported a 14.2% increase, while other companies like YTO Express and Shentong Express also showed positive growth rates [5][8]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities within the express delivery sector, particularly in companies like Shentong and YTO, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing market adjustments [5][8]. - SF Express's "activation operation" strategy is highlighted as a key driver for its sustained growth, with expectations for continued performance improvement [5][8].

Group 1: Capital Flow Overview - In Q1 2025, cross-border capital continued to show a net outflow of $316.7 billion, the highest level since Q1 2021[2] - The main driver of the net outflow was domestic capital outflow, which reached $481.1 billion, also the highest since Q1 2021[2] - Foreign capital inflow amounted to $195.4 billion, while foreign capital outflow was $31.0 billion[2] Group 2: Domestic Investment Trends - Domestic securities investment outflow reached a record high of $164.5 billion since 2011, with $1.25 billion in equity investment and $394 million in bond investment[22] - Direct investment outflow from domestic sources was $143.6 billion, marking the highest level since Q1 2021[30] - Trade credit net outflow was $44.2 billion, the highest since Q4 2015, with domestic trade credit outflow of $18.3 billion[32] Group 3: Gold Reserves and Monetary Trends - Monetary gold increased by $38.3 billion in Q1 2025, setting a record since 2011, with a total increase of 1.126 million ounces since November 2022[35] - The total international investment assets reached $10.70 trillion, while total liabilities were $7.09 trillion, resulting in a net investment position of $3.61 trillion[39]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the automotive industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [3][28]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) in the automotive industry continue to show high growth, with wholesale sales in Q2 2025 reaching 3.57 million units, a year-on-year increase of 34% [6][8]. - The report anticipates that the total wholesale sales of NEVs for the year 2025 could reach 15.89 million units, representing a 31% increase compared to the previous year [6][18]. - The competitive landscape remains intense, with an increase in market concentration and discount rates, as well as a rise in retail penetration rates for NEVs [6][8]. Summary by Sections Industry Basic Data - The automotive industry comprises 232 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 521.23 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 335.37 billion yuan [3]. Sales Performance - In Q2 2025, NEV wholesale sales reached 3.57 million units, up 34% year-on-year, while retail sales were estimated at 2.96 million units, up 29% year-on-year [6][8]. - Exports of NEVs in Q2 2025 reached 520,000 units, a significant increase of 108% year-on-year [6][9]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that the retail penetration rate for NEVs reached 53% in Q2 2025, an increase of 5.6 percentage points year-on-year [6][15]. - The average discount rate in the industry remains high, but there are signs of a decrease as the market stabilizes [6][12]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that the upcoming reduction in purchase tax incentives for NEVs in 2026 may create short-term disruptions in sales, but the long-term outlook remains positive [6][16]. - Investment recommendations include focusing on companies with strong growth potential, such as Jianghuai Automobile and Li Auto, while also considering traditional fuel vehicle manufacturers like SAIC Motor and Great Wall Motors [6][18].

Group 1: Cross-Border Capital Flow - In Q1 2025, cross-border capital continued to show a net outflow of $316.7 billion, the highest level since Q1 2021[2] - Domestic capital outflow reached $481.1 billion, marking the highest level since Q1 2021[2] - Foreign capital inflow was $195.4 billion, while foreign capital outflow was $31.0 billion[2] Group 2: Domestic Investment Trends - Domestic securities investment outflow reached $164.5 billion, a record high since 2011[3] - Domestic direct investment outflow was $143.6 billion, the highest since Q1 2021[4] - The increase in domestic capital outflow was driven by investments in overseas stocks and funds through channels like "Hong Kong Stock Connect" and "mutual recognition of funds"[2] Group 3: Trade Credit and Gold Reserves - Trade credit net outflow was $44.2 billion, the highest since Q4 2015[5] - Monetary gold increased by $38.3 billion, setting a record since 2011, with the central bank accumulating a total of 1.126 million ounces of gold since 2022[6]

Inflation Data - In June, the US CPI increased from 2.4% to 2.7%, matching expectations, while core CPI rose from 2.8% to 2.9%, slightly below the 3% forecast[1] - Month-on-month, CPI rose by 0.3%, consistent with expectations, while core CPI increased by 0.2%, below the expected 0.3%[1] Tariff Impact on CPI - The inflation effect of tariffs was evident in June, with furniture prices rising by 1% (previously 0.3%), clothing by 0.4% (previously -0.4%), and entertainment goods by 0.8% (previously 0.4%)[3] - It is estimated that tariffs have contributed 14% to CPI if core prices remained at February levels, and 40% if they followed last year's declining trend[4] Future Tariff Effects - Assuming the overall tariff rate increases to 17.3%, the remaining unaccounted tariff impact on core prices could add approximately 2.7-2.9 percentage points, translating to a 0.5-0.54 percentage point increase in overall CPI[5] - If the remaining tariff effects manifest over the next three months, the CPI year-on-year could reach 3.2% and 3.3% in Q3 and Q4, respectively[10] Market Reactions - Following the CPI report, market expectations for interest rate cuts slightly decreased, with the anticipated number of cuts dropping from 1.93 to 1.76 for the year[1] - The probability of a rate cut in September fell from 60.1% to 55%, while year-end policy rate expectations rose from 3.846% to 3.89%[1]

Group 1 - The report highlights the continuous growth of index ETF investments, with the total scale reaching 3.7 trillion yuan by the end of 2024, an 81% increase from the end of 2023 [5] - The report emphasizes the significant impact of index rebalancing on the market, particularly noting that most index funds begin rebalancing three days in advance, with trading volume peaking on the day before the rebalancing takes effect [10][22] - The report suggests a trading volume distribution strategy for index rebalancing, recommending a ratio of 2:3:5 for T-3, T-2, and T-1 days, respectively, to optimize trading costs and minimize market impact [34][47] Group 2 - The report provides detailed analysis of price and trading volume changes before and after index rebalancing, indicating that trading volume increases significantly in the days leading up to the rebalancing date [10][22] - It notes that the average daily return for stocks added to or removed from the index remains within ±1.5%, with the highest volatility observed on T-1 day [14][32] - The report recommends specific trading algorithms based on the liquidity and price deviation of different indices, suggesting MOC for high liquidity indices and TWAP/VWAP for those with lower liquidity [47][51] Group 3 - The report includes a backtesting section that analyzes the impact of stock liquidity, volatility, and market capitalization on trading costs, revealing that trading volume on T-1 day often exceeds historical averages by 1.5 to 3 times [35][38] - It discusses the market impact of different-sized ETFs, indicating that larger ETFs experience greater market impact during rebalancing, with the highest impact observed in the dividend index [40][42] - The report concludes with algorithmic trading recommendations for different indices, emphasizing the importance of timing and trading strategy to minimize costs [46][51]