Group 1: Precious Metals - The report emphasizes the long-term allocation value of precious metals, particularly gold, supported by central bank purchases and a weakening dollar credit system [10][11][44] - Gold demand is expected to remain strong due to central bank purchases, with a total of 219.85 tons purchased in Q3 2025, marking a historical high [18][20] - Silver is projected to experience strong price momentum due to persistent supply-demand gaps and low domestic inventory levels [28][39] Group 2: Copper - The copper mining sector is expected to maintain low growth rates, with a projected supply shortage in 2026 due to ongoing mining and smelting conflicts [12][45] - Global copper production is anticipated to increase by approximately 10,000 tons, 70,000 tons, and 84,000 tons from 2025 to 2027, while smelting capacity is expected to rise by 217,000 tons, 100,000 tons, and 20,000 tons respectively [12][47] - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the copper sector, such as Zijin Mining and Jiangxi Copper, as supply tightens [2][12] Group 3: Aluminum - The aluminum market is expected to maintain a tight balance, with domestic production growth rates projected at 2.2%, 1.4%, and 0.4% from 2025 to 2027 [3][13] - Demand for aluminum remains resilient, driven by investments in new energy and power grids, with a projected domestic demand growth of 2.6%, 1.0%, and 3.6% over the same period [3][13] - The report highlights the importance of high dividend stocks in the aluminum sector, recommending companies like China Hongqiao and Tianshan Aluminum [3][13] Group 4: Cobalt - The cobalt supply chain is being reshaped by policies in the Democratic Republic of Congo, leading to a significant reduction in global supply, with projections of only 96,600 tons contributed annually from 2026 to 2027 [4][14] - Demand for cobalt is expected to grow, particularly in high-end electric vehicles and solid-state batteries, with a projected global shortage of 32,000 tons and 31,000 tons in 2026 and 2027 respectively [4][14] - Companies benefiting from cobalt price elasticity, such as Huayou Cobalt and Luoyang Molybdenum, are recommended for investment [4][14]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve announced the restart of the Reserve Management Purchases (RMP) tool, starting December 12, with an initial plan to purchase $40 billion in short-term Treasury securities in the first month[2] - The RMP is expected to inject approximately $150 billion in reserves into the market, continuing until Q2 2026[4] - The purchase structure will focus on ultra-short-term Treasury securities, with 75% of purchases planned for maturities of 1-4 months[4] Group 2: Economic Implications - The RMP aims to improve short-term liquidity, benefiting the U.S. stock market's "loose trading" environment[5] - However, RMP is not equivalent to quantitative easing (QE) and is expected to have limited effects on long-term interest rates and the cost of financing for the real economy[5] - The RMP's operational scale may need to be adjusted based on seasonal fluctuations in the Treasury General Account (TGA) and overall liquidity demands[4] Group 3: Current Liquidity Conditions - The current reserve levels are slightly below the reasonable range, with reserves to nominal GDP ratio at 9.5% and reserves to total bank assets at 11.8%[7] - The reasonable reserve balance is estimated to be around $3 trillion, indicating a need for the RMP to maintain adequate liquidity levels[22] - Compared to the end of QT-1, the current reserve levels are more ample, as they were 6.4% and 7.9% respectively at that time[7] Group 4: Market Indicators - The effective federal funds rate (EFFR) and the secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) have shown signs of liquidity tightening, with SOFR recently exceeding the interest on excess reserves (IOER) for consecutive weeks[8] - The EFFR-IOER spread has been narrowing, indicating a potential liquidity shortage in the banking system, although the situation is better than in 2019[9]

Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. Core Views of the Report - The Fed ended 2025 with continued interest rate cuts, totaling 75 basis points for the year. The policy focus shifted from concerns about inflation rebound to addressing employment downward pressure. The threshold for restarting rate cuts in 2026 is expected to increase, depending more on the pace of employment slowdown and the effectiveness of alleviating commodity inflation related to tariffs. [5][30] - The Fed's restart of RMP is expected to ease the previous liquidity tightening situation. However, internal disagreements among officials have intensified, and with key events such as the Fed chairmanship change and mid - term elections in 2026, the stability of monetary policy has decreased. It is expected that the Fed will maintain a "wait - and - see" attitude in the first half of 2026, and changes in the second half may depend on the new chairman's policy orientation and the economic outlook due to fiscal expansion. [5][30] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Interest Rate Decision and Market Reaction - On the early morning of December 11, 2025, the Fed cut interest rates for the third consecutive time, lowering the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.5% - 3.75%, and the reserve balance rate and discount rate to 3.65% and 3.75% respectively. In 2025, the Fed cut interest rates three times, a cumulative 75 basis points, reducing the federal funds target rate from 4.5% to 3.75%. [4][7] - After the interest rate decision was announced, the 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield fluctuated upward, reaching a high of 4.18%. The three major U.S. stock indexes rose, and the U.S. dollar index briefly rose above 99 points. During the press conference, the 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield turned downward, the U.S. stock rally continued to expand, the U.S. dollar index returned to around 98.5, COMEX gold first fell then rose, and crude oil prices declined. [8] 2. Interest Rate Statement - Focused on labor market pressure, policy outlook, and Reserve Management Purchases (RMP). The description of the unemployment rate was changed to "the unemployment rate has risen as of September". The statement added the expression "the extent and timing" for future interest rate adjustments, last seen in December 2024, which may imply a higher threshold for future rate cuts. It also added that the committee believes the reserve balance has fallen to an adequate level and will buy short - term U.S. Treasuries as needed to maintain a continuous and adequate supply of reserves. [4][12][16] 3. Economic Forecast - GDP growth forecasts for the next four years were raised, while the unemployment rate forecast for the following year and inflation forecasts for this and next year were slightly lowered. The December dot - plot predicts one rate cut each in 2026 and 2027, with the median remaining the same as in September. However, there is a high degree of dispersion among the 19 Fed officials providing forecasts, indicating significant disagreements on the subsequent rate - cut magnitude and increasing policy uncertainty. [18][19] 4. Reserve Management Purchases (RMP) - Core Purpose: To increase the bank system's reserve scale by purchasing short - term Treasuries and other assets, addressing the recent surge in funding prices. Since 2023, the scale of the overnight reverse repurchase tool ONRRP has dropped significantly to near zero, and the bank reserve scale has returned to the 2020 level. The Fed's long - term balance sheet reduction and the U.S. government shutdown have also drained short - term liquidity, with the SOFR remaining persistently higher than the EFFR since September 2025, with the spread reaching a maximum of 36 basis points. [2][20][22] - Bond - buying Operation: Starting from December 12, it plans to purchase $40 billion in Treasury bills over the next 30 days. The subsequent purchase amount will be adjusted according to the reserve supply outlook and seasonal fluctuations. According to Powell, the neutral monthly purchase level may be between $20 billion and $25 billion. [2][22] - Historical Operation: The last time the Fed carried out RMP was in 2019. In mid - September 2019, the SOFR was nearly 300 basis points higher than the EFFR. The Fed announced the launch of RMP on October 11, 2019, buying Treasury bills at a rate of $60 billion per month to maintain the reserve level at or above that of early September 2019. [2][22] - Comparison with QE: Unlike QE, which lowers long - term interest rates by buying long - term Treasuries and then reduces borrowing costs, RMP aims to replenish the bank system's reserves by buying short - term Treasuries, ensuring an adequate reserve scale without indicating a change in the monetary policy stance. [3][23] 5. Labor Market - Both labor supply and demand are slowing down, and employment data may overestimate the actual situation. From June to September 2025, the unemployment rate rose by 0.3 percentage points to 4.4%. Since April, the average monthly non - farm employment increase was about 40,000, but after adjustment, it may actually have decreased by about 20,000 per month. The continuous and gradual cooling of the labor market might be the main reason for the continued rate cuts. [5][24] 6. Inflation - Non - tariff factors have made positive progress, and inflation caused by tariff factors may peak in the first quarter of 2026. It is maintained that the impact of tariffs on inflation is one - time rather than continuous. In September, the U.S. core CPI year - on - year decreased from 3.1% in August to 3.0%, and the month - on - month growth rate dropped from 0.3% to 0.2%. Among sub - items, prices of tariff - sensitive goods such as clothing, furniture, and entertainment products increased month - on - month to varying degrees, while the housing rent in core services decreased, indicating a continued decline in service inflation, but the spill - over effect of commodity inflation caused by tariffs still exists. [5][27]

Group 1: Interest Rate Changes - The FOMC lowered the interest rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.5%-3.75%, aligning with market expectations[1] - The dot plot indicates a forecast of one rate cut in both next year and the year after, but there is significant disagreement among members[3] - There were 2 dissenting votes against the rate cut, with 6 out of 19 participants supporting no rate cut[3] Group 2: Economic Projections - The Fed raised its GDP growth forecasts for Q4 2025-2028 to 1.7%, 2.3%, 2.0%, and 1.9% respectively, compared to previous estimates of 1.6%, 1.8%, 1.9%, and 1.8%[1] - Core PCE inflation forecasts for the same period were adjusted to 3.0%, 2.5%, 2.1%, and 2.0%, down from 3.1%, 2.6%, 2.1%, and 2.0%[1] - The Fed's assessment of downside risks to growth has decreased, while the outlook for unemployment risks has also improved[21] Group 3: Quantitative Easing Measures - The Fed announced the restart of "Reserve Management Purchases" (RMP) to maintain adequate reserve levels, starting at a pace of $40 billion per month[5] - This RMP is a technical operation aimed at increasing liquidity in the money market, distinct from traditional quantitative easing (QE)[13] - The current asset purchase scale is smaller than previous QE measures, with the Fed's balance sheet at approximately $6.6 trillion compared to $3.8 trillion in 2019[7] Group 4: Market Reactions - Following the FOMC meeting, U.S. stock markets rose, the dollar index fell, and U.S. Treasury yields declined[35] - The futures market adjusted expectations for rate cuts next year from 2 to approximately 2.24 times, with the year-end policy rate forecast decreasing from 3.159% to 3.082%[35]

Inflation Data Summary - November CPI increased year-on-year from 0.2% to 0.7%, meeting expectations of 0.7%[2] - Core CPI remained stable at 1.2%, maintaining a high level since 2022[2] - PPI decreased year-on-year from -2.1% to -2.2%, with expectations of -2%[2] Key Influences on CPI - Food prices significantly impacted CPI, with a month-on-month increase of 0.5% compared to -2.7% in November last year[2] - Fresh vegetable prices rose by 7.2% due to adverse weather affecting production and transportation[2] - Medical service prices increased by 0.3%, marking the eighth consecutive month of price rises[2] PPI Trends - PPI rose by 0.1% month-on-month, marking the second consecutive month of increase[3] - Seasonal demand in coal and gas industries contributed to price increases[3] - The computer and electronics sector saw a price increase of 0.1%, while the automotive sector's price decline narrowed from -0.2% to -0.1%[3] Future Inflation Outlook - CPI is expected to maintain a positive year-on-year trend, with projections of around 0.7% for next year[4] - PPI is anticipated to show a recovery trend, but the timing for a positive year-on-year change remains uncertain, with estimates around -1.4% for next year[4] - The supply-demand dynamics in the midstream manufacturing sector are crucial for PPI stabilization[4] Risks and Considerations - Potential upward risks for CPI include improvements in service sector pricing, particularly if consumer subsidy policies expand[5] - The midstream manufacturing sector's price stabilization is critical for PPI recovery, as it has been a significant drag on overall PPI performance[5]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Framework - The ten-year government bond yield reflects the risk-free rate of a country and should correspond to the country's economic growth and investment returns[1] - Prior to unconventional monetary policy, a nominal GDP growth of 4%-5% typically corresponds to a ten-year bond yield of 2%-5%[2] - Currently, China's nominal GDP growth is approximately 4.2%, while the ten-year bond yield is around 1.85%[4] Group 2: Supply and Demand Perspective - The increase in the corporate-resident deposit gap indicates strong demand for funds in the real economy, leading the ten-year bond yield by about one year[9] - The non-bank investment gap has been rising since October 2024, suggesting an increase in financial institutions' risk appetite, which leads the ten-year bond yield by about six months[9] - The corporate-resident deposit gap has risen by 9% over the past year, indicating a higher probability of an increase in the ten-year bond yield[9] Group 3: Policy Perspective - As of 2022, 2023, and 2024, the ten-year bond yield has declined more than the policy rate by 12bp, 38bp, and 30bp respectively, indicating limited further downward space for yields[10] - The current expectation of unconventional monetary policy for 2025 has cooled, suggesting a gradual return of the ten-year bond yield to normal levels[3] - Historical experience shows that during periods of government-led leverage increases, the probability of significant interest rate hikes remains low[11]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 15.19 CNY [2][10]. Core Views - The company, TUBABO (兔宝宝), is a leading player in the decorative panel industry, focusing on the sales of decorative materials, particularly plywood, which is well-suited for the lower-tier market [7][14]. - The company has a strong channel layout and brand strength, targeting both C-end and small B-end markets, with significant growth potential in the underdeveloped markets [10][9]. - The report forecasts revenue growth of 0.3%, 10.3%, and 9.7% for 2025-2027, with net profit growth of 33.5%, 0.8%, and 9.3% respectively [10][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - TUBABO has been a key player in the decorative panel industry for over 30 years, becoming one of the largest in terms of sales scale and channel coverage [14]. - The company’s revenue is primarily derived from decorative materials, which accounted for 81% of total revenue in 2024, while the custom home business has been declining [15][22]. 2. Market Dynamics - The decorative panel market is characterized by a fragmented competitive landscape, with significant opportunities in the C-end and small B-end markets [9][61]. - The company’s main product, plywood, is favored in traditional woodworking systems, while particleboard is preferred by large custom furniture manufacturers [50][55]. 3. Channel Strategy - TUBABO is accelerating the establishment of specialty stores in rural areas, with a notable increase in the number of stores [7][10]. - The company is also enhancing its online presence through partnerships with e-commerce platforms to drive traffic and customer acquisition [7][10]. 4. Financial Performance - The company’s revenue from panel sales reached 48 billion CNY in 2024, with an 8% year-on-year growth [32]. - The brand licensing business has shown stable growth, contributing significantly to the overall gross margin, with a gross margin rate of 99% [34][38]. 5. Future Outlook - The report anticipates a recovery in the real estate market, which will positively impact the company’s business in the medium to long term [10][7]. - The company is expected to leverage its channel advantages and brand strength to capture substantial growth in the lower-tier markets [10][9].

Monetary Policy Changes - The Federal Reserve announced a rate cut of 25 basis points in December, lowering the federal funds rate range from 4%-3.75% to 3.75%-3.5%[1] - The Fed raised its economic growth forecast for the U.S. next year while lowering inflation expectations, with the 2026 GDP growth forecast increased by 0.5% to 2.3% and the core PCE forecast reduced by 0.1% to 2.5%[1][4] Future Rate Projections - The latest dot plot indicates the Fed may cut rates once in both 2026 and 2027, with no cuts expected in 2028, maintaining a neutral rate at 3%[1][4] - The median forecast for the federal funds rate at the end of 2026 is not expected to be lower than 3.25%, with a similar outlook for 2027[4] Economic Outlook - The Fed's decision to purchase short-term U.S. Treasury securities aims to maintain ample reserve levels, unrelated to monetary policy stance[1][5] - The Fed's actions support a positive outlook for the U.S. economy, with potential upward pressure on the dollar and long-term Treasury yields[1][7] Risks and Market Reactions - Risks include a potential price war in the oil market and systemic financial risks in emerging markets[2] - Following the Fed's rate cuts from April to September, U.S. equities, the dollar, and long-term Treasury yields have shown upward trends, indicating a shift in market sentiment[7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 12th Politburo meeting emphasized the continued implementation of a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, leveraging the integrated effects of existing and incremental policies and strengthening counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustments. The government aims to enhance the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand to promote consumption. The financial sector should work towards building a financial powerhouse [1][10]. - The government will implement a more effective and forceful proactive fiscal policy, with the issuance of local government bonds exceeding 10 trillion yuan for the first time [2][13]. - The central bank focuses on cross - cyclical balance, with net purchases of 50 billion yuan of treasury bonds in November, slightly lower than market expectations [3][14]. - Financial regulators have launched a pilot program for commercial real estate REITs and lowered the risk factors for insurance companies' stock investments [4][18]. - In the real estate sector, Vanke is seeking an extension of its domestic bonds, and Shenzhen has introduced new rules for housing provident fund withdrawals to support home purchases [5][23]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro - tone - The Politburo meeting on December 8 proposed that next year's economic work should continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, leveraging the integrated effects of existing and incremental policies, strengthening counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustments, focusing on domestic demand, and promoting innovation - driven development [10]. - On November 26, six departments jointly issued a plan to enhance the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand, aiming to form three trillion - level consumption sectors and ten billion - level consumption hotspots by 2027 and establish a high - quality development pattern of supply and consumption interaction by 2030 [10][12]. - On December 3, Wang Jiang proposed accelerating the construction of a financial powerhouse, developing diversified financing methods such as equity and bond financing, and steadily promoting the development of futures, derivatives, and asset - backed securities [11]. 3.2 Fiscal Policy - On December 2, Minister of Finance Lan Fuan emphasized the implementation of a more effective and forceful proactive fiscal policy, expanding domestic demand, and optimizing government investment. The government should also prevent and resolve local government debt risks [13][15]. - As of December 2, the issuance scale of national local government bonds reached approximately 10.1 trillion yuan, breaking through the 10 - trillion - yuan mark for the first time [2][13][15]. 3.3 Monetary Policy - On December 4, Central Bank Governor Pan Gongsheng mentioned that the central bank should focus on cross - cyclical balance, avoid excessive policy adjustments, and use various monetary policy tools to smooth economic fluctuations [14][17]. - In November, the central bank net - bought 50 billion yuan of treasury bonds, slightly lower than market expectations. However, the need for banks to increase bond purchases significantly is limited. The central bank's bond - buying may still be an important tool for liquidity injection next year [3][14][17]. 3.4 Financial Supervision - On December 6, CSRC Chairman Wu Qing encouraged leading institutions to build world - class investment banks through mergers and acquisitions, and "moderately loosen restrictions" on high - quality securities firms, while the Asset Management Association of China may cut the salaries of underperforming fund managers [18][21][22]. - On November 28, the CSRC issued a draft announcement for a pilot program of commercial real estate investment trust funds, specifying product definitions, registration, and management requirements [19][21]. - On December 5, the National Administration of Financial Regulation adjusted the risk factors for insurance companies' stock investments, reducing the risk factors for certain stocks held for a certain period [20][21]. 3.5 Real Estate Policy - On November 26, Vanke sought an extension of its 2 billion yuan domestic bond due on December 15, 2025. The proposed extension plan includes a one - year extension of principal and interest payments, with the interest rate remaining unchanged [23][26]. - On December 5, Shenzhen introduced new rules for housing provident fund withdrawals, increasing the support for home purchases, including different withdrawal limits for the first, second, and subsequent homes [24][26]. - On December 6, a media outlet under the Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development stated that the vitality of the real estate market is crucial for high - quality development. Local governments should actively resolve the risks of troubled real estate enterprises [24][25][26].

证 券 研 究 报 告 房地产行业周报（2025 年第 49 周） 重庆发布"好房子"建设支持新政，万科公 推荐（维持） 布债务展期议案 行业研究 房地产 2025 年 12 月 09 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：单戈 邮箱：shange@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522110001 证券分析师：许常捷 邮箱：xuchangjie@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525030002 证券分析师：杨航 邮箱：yanghang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525090001 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 107 | 0.01 | | 总市值(亿元) | 12,299.23 | 1.03 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 11,793.16 | 1.23 | | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | -3.9% | 10.8% | -9.5% | | 相对表现 | -2.6% | -8.5% | -25.8% | | | 2024-12-0 ...