Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for Runben Co., Ltd. with a target price of 43.5 CNY per share [1]. Core Viewpoints - Runben Co., Ltd. is transitioning from a mosquito repellent leader to a comprehensive brand in baby and child care products, with plans to expand into the youth market. The company aims to build a growth model that combines vertical specialization and horizontal ecosystem development [13]. - The company has shown robust revenue growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 36.5% from 2019 to 2024, increasing from 280 million CNY to 1.32 billion CNY [25][26]. - The mosquito repellent industry is experiencing expansion due to diversified consumer needs and increased outdoor activities, with the market expected to reach 10.17 billion CNY by 2027 [46][52]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Runben Co., Ltd. was established in 2006 and has successfully listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in 2023. The company follows a "big brand, small category" strategy, focusing on integrated research, production, and sales [14]. - The company has three core business lines: mosquito repellent products, baby care products, and essential oils. In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.32 billion CNY, with a net profit of 300 million CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 27.6% and 32.8%, respectively [14][25]. Financial Performance - The company has demonstrated strong financial performance, with a net profit CAGR of 53.1% from 2019 to 2024. The gross profit margin improved from 54.1% in 2019 to 58.2% in 2024 [26][34]. - The revenue from baby care products has been a significant growth driver, with a year-on-year increase of 32.4% in 2024 [35]. Mosquito Repellent Industry - The mosquito repellent market is projected to grow significantly, driven by changing consumer preferences towards natural ingredients and increased outdoor activities. The market size is expected to reach 10.17 billion CNY by 2027, with a CAGR of 6.4% from 2022 to 2027 [46][52]. - Runben has successfully captured market share in the online channel, achieving a 19.9% market share in 2022 for mosquito repellent products [14]. Baby Care Industry - The baby care market is characterized by a broad customer base and continuous expansion, with a market share of 1.9% for Runben in 2022. The company is well-positioned to leverage its existing customer base from mosquito repellent products to enhance its baby care offerings [19][46]. - The industry is highly fragmented, providing opportunities for new domestic brands like Runben to emerge and capture market share [19]. Essential Oil Industry - The essential oil market is transitioning from a niche segment to a mainstream necessity, with a global market size expected to reach 27.82 billion USD by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 10.7% [6]. - Runben is expanding its essential oil product line, which currently includes products aimed at children, and is exploring further opportunities in this segment [21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company with a target price of 69 CNY per share, corresponding to a PE ratio of 44 times for 2025 [2][8]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 2.432 billion CNY for the first half of 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 24.32%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 203 million CNY, up 42.56% year-on-year [2]. - The overseas business achieved a revenue of 1.575 billion CNY, growing 17.61% year-on-year, with a gross margin increase of 4.04 percentage points to 27.95% [3]. - Domestic revenue reached 857 million CNY, reflecting a significant increase of 38.89% year-on-year, driven by the growth of the "Wanpi" brand [3]. Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: 4.465 billion CNY in 2024, 5.746 billion CNY in 2025, 7.235 billion CNY in 2026, and 9.144 billion CNY in 2027, with respective growth rates of 19.1%, 28.7%, 25.9%, and 26.4% [4]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 394 million CNY in 2024, increasing to 878 million CNY by 2027, with growth rates of 68.9%, 21.8%, 36.2%, and 34.4% [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to rise from 1.29 CNY in 2024 to 2.89 CNY in 2027 [4]. Business Growth and Strategy - The company's main grain business saw a remarkable revenue increase of 85.79% in the first half of 2025, significantly contributing to overall revenue growth [8]. - The domestic brand revenue growth target for the second half of 2025 has been raised to no less than 35%, with the "Xiaojindun" series emerging as a key product [8]. - The company plans to leverage its overseas factories in Canada and Mexico to sustain growth, with new product launches and collaborations expected to enhance brand visibility [8].

金融工程 证 券 研 究 报 告 【专题报告】 形态因子研究初探：基于离散形态信号构建 的形态合成因子 ❖ K 线形态与形态信号 K 线的本质内涵是多空双方资金在争夺主导权而留下来的轨迹，K 线形态学研 究的是股票价格在下跌、盘整、上升过程中的价格轨迹的图形、形态及特征， 不同 K 线组合可以表现出多重市场形态。 在之前的报告中，我们根据 1-5 日 K 线总结出了 61 种常见形态，包括正面形 态，负面形态和反转形态，对应着不同的看涨或看跌信号。这些形态信号具有 以下特点：离散化、低覆盖、多样化（同一日不同形态的信号值有重叠或相反 情况），难以因子化。针对这些特点，本报告提出一种基于离散形态信号构建 形态合成因子的方法，希望通过多种"个性"形态的综合效应，挖掘形态背后 的因子"共性"。 ❖ 形态合成因子构建 综合不同形态和不同交易日情况，考虑形态之间的相互影响，基于离散形态信 号构建形态合成因子。首先采用离散信号回归加权法，将每一期各形态的离散 信号作为哑变量，与下一期收益率进行线性回归，并基于历史一段时间的回归 系数对信号值进行加权，得到形态因子。然后将当期形态因子和滞后 d 期形态 因子等权合成，构建形 ...

债券研究 债券深度报告 2025 年 08 月 07 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：周冠南 电话：010-66500886 邮箱：zhouguannan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360517090002 证券分析师：靳晓航 电话：010-66500819 邮箱：jinxiaohang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522080003 ——日历看债系列之二 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券深度报告】 基本面的季节性及时点观察 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210 号 ❖ 2024 年以来，债券市场进入低利率区间，交易盘把握收益率运行规律愈渐重 要，本篇重点探讨基本面的季节性规律。 ❖ 一、基本面的日历效应 ❖ 一季度：聚焦经济数据"开门红"与两会定调。（1）1-2 月经济数据近年来表 现均较强势，"开门红"验证概率较高，数据空窗期需要重点关注反映春节消 费、开复工情况的高频指标。年初银行信贷投放"开门红"成色也是市场博弈 的方向，主要通过票据利率观察。（2）3 月两会确定全年经济工作任务，关注 重点包括：GDP 目标、货币政策定调、财政赤字、消费、房地产、通 ...

Group 1 - The overall recovery of existing actively managed public funds has reached 95% since the peak of the last bull market. A 5% increase in the equity fund index could correspond to a 5% rise in the Shanghai Composite Index to around 3800 points [3][17][26] - New funds have surpassed their initial average net value as of July 24, with an overall net return average of 2%. Old funds have recovered to 88% of the previous bull market peak [3][27][28] - The scale of thematic funds among the 3 trillion new funds is 500 billion, with sector allocations of 40% in consumer, 31% in manufacturing, and 19% in pharmaceuticals. New thematic funds are under greater pressure, having recovered to 94% of their initial net value average [3][30][31] Group 2 - The stability of the stock and real estate markets is crucial for improving residents' income. The bull market has facilitated the transfer of excess savings into the stock market, creating a positive feedback loop [4][12][13] - Compared to real estate, the stock market is a key foundation for the future recovery of residents' balance sheets and enhancement of property income. The current structure of second-hand housing transactions limits the consumption of residents' savings [12][13][36] - The adjustment in the stock and real estate markets over the past three years has been the main reason for the shrinkage of residents' balance sheets. Stabilizing these markets can effectively restore residents' confidence and income [12][13][36]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 363.69 CNY [2][8]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 178.9 billion CNY for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 7%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 30.5 billion CNY, up 33% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items reached 27.2 billion CNY, growing by 36% year-on-year [2][8]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2024A: 362,013 million CNY - 2025E: 452,472 million CNY (25% growth) - 2026E: 534,949 million CNY (18.2% growth) - 2027E: 629,480 million CNY (17.7% growth) [4] - **Net Profit Forecasts**: - 2024A: 50,745 million CNY - 2025E: 66,327 million CNY (30.7% growth) - 2026E: 79,045 million CNY (19.2% growth) - 2027E: 92,083 million CNY (16.5% growth) [4] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2024A: 11.13 CNY - 2025E: 14.55 CNY - 2026E: 17.34 CNY - 2027E: 20.20 CNY [4] - **Valuation Ratios**: - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are projected at 18, 15, and 13 respectively [4]. Market Position and Strategy - The company achieved a battery system production of 310 GWh in the first half of 2025, with a capacity utilization rate of 89.86%. The total output of power batteries and energy storage batteries reached nearly 150 GWh, with a year-on-year growth exceeding 30% [8]. - The company continues to lead the global market with a 38.1% share in power battery usage from January to May 2025, marking a 0.6 percentage point increase year-on-year [8]. - The company is actively enhancing its battery ecosystem, with over 400 battery swap stations for passenger vehicles established by the end of July 2025, aiming for a total of 1,000 stations by year-end [8]. Innovation and Product Development - The company has launched several innovative products, including the second-generation supercharging battery and sodium-ion batteries, demonstrating strong R&D capabilities [8]. - In the solid-state battery technology sector, the company is making significant investments, with expectations for small-scale production by 2027 [8].

汽车行业分城市零售跟踪 2Q25 低线城市占比同比持续提升 证 券 研 究 报 告 中国汽车终端零售量近年在波动中增长，并在一二三四线城市中出现分化，我 们持续跟踪季度分车系分城市零售数据，以便投资者更好理解销量状态。 2Q25 零售情况： 同比角度： 绝对增量上看，自主品牌同比贡献最多，其中自主豪华增长主要来自新一线、 二线城市，自主普通在所有线级城市均有所增长，其中四线增长最多；合资豪 华在各级城市均有所下降。 环比角度： 绝对增量上看，自主和合资普通环比贡献最多，其中自主普通增长主要来自新 一线、二线城市，合资普通增长主要来自新一线、二线城市。 市占率角度： 环比变动：合资豪华≈合资普通-0.5PP<特斯拉-0.4PP<自主+0.5PP<自主 豪华+0.9PP。 自主不断蚕食合资市场，受季节性影响低线城市占比有所下滑。 详细内容可参考正文图表。 行业研究 汽车 2025 年 08 月 07 日 推荐（维持） 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：李昊岚 邮箱：lihaolan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524010003 联系人：张睿希 邮箱：zhangruixi@hcyjs.com 行业基本数据 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - On August 6, 2025, most convertible bond industries rose, and the valuation decreased slightly compared to the previous day. The small-cap growth style was relatively dominant, and the trading sentiment in the convertible bond market increased [1]. - The central price of convertible bonds increased, and the proportion of high-priced bonds rose. The valuation was compressed, with the fitting conversion premium rate of 100-yuan parity decreasing [2]. - In the A-share market, more than half of the underlying stock industry indices rose. In the convertible bond market, 26 industries rose, and only two industries fell [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Main Index Performance - The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.58% day-on-day, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.45%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.64%, the ChiNext Index rose 0.66%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.24%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 1.09% [1]. - The small-cap growth style was relatively dominant, with small-cap growth rising 1.15% [1]. - The convertible bond equal-weight index rose 0.76%, the convertible bond index rose 0.72%, the convertible bond pre - plan index rose 1.70% [7]. Market Fund Performance - The trading volume in the convertible bond market was 87.489 billion yuan, a 1.53% increase from the previous day; the total trading volume of Wind All A was 1759.242 billion yuan, an 8.88% increase [1]. - The net outflow of main funds from the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 11.049 billion yuan, and the yield of the 10-year Treasury bond decreased by 0.62bp to 1.70% [1]. Convertible Bond Valuation - The fitting conversion premium rate of 100-yuan parity was 29.47%, a 0.11pct decrease from the previous day; the overall weighted parity was 97.68 yuan, a 0.49% increase [2]. - The conversion premium rates of all types of convertible bonds by stock - bond nature increased, with the premium rate of debt - biased convertible bonds rising 1.59pct [28]. Industry Performance - In the A-share market, the top three industries in terms of gains were National Defense and Military Industry (+3.07%), Machinery and Equipment (+1.98%), and Coal (+1.89%); the top three industries in terms of losses were Pharmaceutical Biology (-0.65%), Commerce and Retail (-0.23%), and Building Materials (-0.23%) [3]. - In the convertible bond market, the top three industries in terms of gains were Media (+4.17%), National Defense and Military Industry (+2.18%), and Non - Ferrous Metals (+1.63%); the two industries with losses were Building Materials (-2.36%) and Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry and Fishery (-0.11%) [3]. - In terms of different sectors, the closing price of the large - cycle sector rose 0.56%, the manufacturing sector rose 0.76%, the technology sector rose 1.96%, the large - consumption sector rose 0.67%, and the large - finance sector rose 0.16% [3]. Industry Rotation - National Defense and Military Industry, Machinery and Equipment, and Coal led the rise. The underlying stocks of National Defense and Military Industry rose 3.07% day - on - day, and the convertible bonds rose 2.18% [52]. - The report also provided the weekly, monthly, and year - to - date price changes, as well as the valuation quantiles of different industries [52].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the industry, expecting the industry index to rise more than 5% over the next 3-6 months compared to the benchmark index [23]. Core Insights - Recent capital market indicators show significant activity, with the margin trading balance surpassing 2 trillion yuan for the first time in nearly a decade as of August 5, 2025, and A and H shares achieving record daily trading volumes since 2010 [1][2]. - The current market recovery is attributed to both policy and capital flows, with a clear "policy bottom" supported by the central bank's moderately loose monetary policy and the China Securities Regulatory Commission's initiatives to boost market confidence [3]. - The influx of southbound capital has been a key driver for the Hong Kong market's recovery, with a cumulative net inflow of 824.5 billion yuan from January 1 to August 5, 2025, surpassing the total for 2024 and indicating strong demand for Hong Kong stocks from mainland investors [3]. Summary by Sections Market Activity - As of August 5, 2025, the margin trading balance reached 2,003 billion yuan, marking a return to the 2 trillion yuan level since 2015, with a more regulated use of leverage compared to previous years [2]. - The average daily trading volume for A shares from January 1 to August 5, 2025, was 14,334 billion yuan, while H shares averaged 2,273 billion yuan, leading to a combined average of 16,607 billion yuan [10]. Financial Performance - A total of 27 listed brokerages have released interim performance forecasts, with a projected year-on-year net profit growth of 63.0% to 77.2% for the first half of 2025, and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 3.8% to 21.5% for the second quarter [4]. - The current price-to-book (PB) ratio for the securities sector is 1.55x, indicating that valuations are at historically low levels, suggesting potential for recovery [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on stocks with strong alpha characteristics in the medium to long term, while short-term strategies should capitalize on increased market risk appetite [4]. - Specific stocks recommended include Guotai Junan A+H, GF Securities A+H, and CITIC Securities, among others [4].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating an expected increase in the industry index by more than 5% over the next 3-6 months compared to the benchmark index [19]. Core Insights - The report highlights the release of Genie 3 by Google DeepMind, which marks a significant advancement in AGI with real-time interactive simulation capabilities and the ability to generate diverse virtual environments [2][4]. - Genie 3 introduces a new feature called Promptable World Events, allowing users to create varied fictional worlds based on text inputs, enhancing the interactivity and control of virtual environments [9]. - The report emphasizes the potential of Genie 3 to integrate with other models, paving the way for a more comprehensive intelligent model that combines various modalities [9]. - The competitive landscape is noted, with both international and domestic players advancing in 3D interactive scenarios, indicating a shift towards high-fidelity, interactive, and open-source models [9]. - The report identifies key domestic and international companies across various sectors, including finance, education, and healthcare, that are leveraging AI applications [9]. Industry Data - The industry consists of 337 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 50,833.86 billion and a circulating market capitalization of 44,617.66 billion [6]. - The absolute performance of the industry over the past 12 months is reported at 77.7%, with a relative performance of 54.9% compared to the benchmark index [7].