行业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 华创交运|低空经济周报（第 59 期） 多地政府十五五规划建议写入"低空经济" 邮箱：wuyifan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360516090002 证券分析师：梁婉怡 邮箱：liangwanyi@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523080001 证券分析师：吴晨玥 交通运输 2025 年 12 月 14 日 邮箱：wuchenyue@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523070001 推荐（维持） 证券分析师：霍鹏浩 邮箱：huopenghao@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524030001 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：吴一凡 证券分析师：李清影 邮箱：liqingying@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525080004 联系人：刘邢雨 邮箱：liuxingyu@hcyjs.com 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 121 | 0.02 | | 总市值(亿元) | 33,163.64 | 2.78 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 28,692.20 | 2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the consumer services industry, highlighting optimism about service consumption potential [1]. Core Viewpoints - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the importance of domestic demand and plans to implement measures to boost consumption, including a focus on enhancing the supply of quality goods and services [4]. - The report suggests that service consumption is expected to be a key driver for domestic demand in 2026, with potential growth in holiday policy optimization and consumption voucher issuance [4]. - Key investment targets include hotels, human resources services, duty-free sectors, gaming companies, internet platforms, integrated tea dining, innovative tourism sites, and the sports sector [4]. Industry Basic Data - The consumer services industry comprises 55 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 498.804 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of 457.081 billion yuan [1]. Relative Index Performance - The consumer services sector experienced a decline of 0.76% this week, while the overall A-share market rose by 0.27% and the CSI 300 index fell by 0.08% [7]. - The sector's performance over the past month shows a relative underperformance compared to the CSI 300 index [2][7]. Weekly Industry Insights - The report notes that the social services sector's stock performance was mixed, with notable gains in companies like China High-Tech and China Oriental Education, while others like Haidilao and Wanda Hotel Development faced declines [4][19]. - The report also highlights significant announcements from various companies, including share buybacks and management changes [34]. Upcoming Shareholder Meetings - Several companies in the consumer services sector have scheduled shareholder meetings in the coming month, including Long White Mountain and Chongqing Department Store [35].

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of the company to "Strong Buy" [1][10]. Core Viewpoints - The company is a global leader in one-stop RF solutions, entering a new growth cycle with multiple business lines advancing simultaneously [1][8]. - The rapid iteration of AI terminals is driving component upgrades, with significant growth potential in the AI glasses market [9][50]. - The commercial satellite communication industry is expanding rapidly, providing further growth opportunities for the company [9][50]. - The ongoing advancement of automotive intelligence is increasing demand for RF and related businesses [9][50]. Company Overview - The company, founded in April 2006, has evolved into a leading provider of one-stop RF solutions, expanding its product offerings from RF components to include connectors, wireless charging, and precision parts [14][16]. - The company has established a comprehensive business layout, covering antennas, wireless charging modules, EMI/EMC devices, and automotive interconnect products, among others [16][19]. Financial Performance - The company is projected to achieve total revenue of 8,744 million yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 15.8% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 662 million yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 26.9% [2]. - The company maintains a high R&D expense ratio, which is crucial for long-term growth, with a projected R&D expense ratio of 7.52% for the first three quarters of 2025 [26][30]. AI Terminal Market - The global AI glasses market is expected to see sales of 1.52 million units in 2024, with a projected growth to 3.5 million units in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 130% [50]. - The entry of major players like OpenAI into the AI hardware sector is anticipated to accelerate industry development [52][53]. - The AI glasses market is characterized by a clear division of labor in the supply chain, with non-display AI glasses likely to see faster market penetration due to lower production complexity [42][50]. Satellite Communication Industry - The low Earth orbit satellite market is projected to grow from approximately 15.2 billion USD in 2025 to 34.7 billion USD by 2032, with a CAGR of 12.5% [9][50]. - The company has successfully integrated into the core supply chains of domestic and international satellite communication clients, enhancing its competitive position [9][50]. Automotive Electronics - The demand for antennas in smart vehicles is significantly increasing, with the number of antennas required for L2+ level autonomous vehicles rising from 3-4 to 6-8 [9][50]. - The Chinese automotive antenna market is expected to grow from 2.267 billion yuan in 2017 to 4.033 billion yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of 8.57% [9][50].

Group 1: Market Strategy - The bond market is expected to maintain a fluctuating pattern in 2026, with investors adopting a cautious approach to market changes, focusing on "earning income from coupons" due to limited capital gain opportunities [5][18] - The core fluctuation range for 10-year government bonds is projected to be around OMO + 30-50 basis points, with potential extreme fluctuations of ±5 basis points [2][8] - The report emphasizes the importance of coupon income in a volatile market, suggesting early allocation to capture time value and actively seeking optimal coupon opportunities during adjustments [3][7] Group 2: Economic Fundamentals - The economic growth target for 2026 is set at approximately 5%, with a focus on balancing internal and external dynamics, including the importance of exports and domestic demand supported by policy measures [5][6] - The report highlights a potential recovery in industrial value added and consumer prices, with nominal GDP growth expected to be around 4.8% for the year [5][6] - Structural changes in the economy are anticipated, with a focus on the resilience of exports and the gradual recovery of fixed asset investments [6][10] Group 3: Monetary Policy - The monetary policy framework is entering a stable phase, with a focus on "cross-cycle and counter-cyclical" adjustments, and the likelihood of a limited interest rate cut in 2026 [5][6] - The report outlines that the central bank may implement one interest rate cut of 10 basis points in a neutral scenario, with the possibility of no cuts occurring [5][6] - The use of various monetary tools is expected to be refined, with a focus on managing liquidity and maintaining a stable environment [6][10] Group 4: Institutional Behavior - The report anticipates a continuation of "asset scarcity" in the bond market, with an increase in the supply of government bonds, while demand from institutional investors remains stable [5][6] - Banks and insurance companies are expected to maintain high levels of bond allocation, while the growth of bank wealth management products may slow down due to market uncertainties [5][6] - The demand structure is characterized by a predominance of allocation-type institutions, with trading-type institutions facing increased uncertainty [6][10] Group 5: Investment Strategies - The report suggests three operational methods for navigating a fluctuating market: focusing on coupon income, adhering to trading discipline, and monitoring sector rotations [3][7][9] - The strategy emphasizes the importance of selecting trading opportunities based on market conditions, particularly for 10-year bonds, while also considering the potential for long-term bonds to return to alpha strategies [3][9] - The report highlights the effectiveness of rotating between active and inactive bonds, as well as credit bonds, to enhance portfolio returns [9][10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In November 2025, new RMB loans were 390 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 190 billion yuan, and the credit balance growth rate dropped to 6.4%. New social financing scale was 2.4885 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 159.7 billion yuan, and the stock growth rate of social financing remained at 8.5%. The year - on - year growth rate of M2 decreased from 8.2% to 8.0% due to the base effect, and the growth rate of M1 under the new caliber dropped from 6.2% to 4.9%. Overall, credit performance in November was weak, off - balance - sheet bills slightly supplemented, with the household sector being the main drag. The "shopping festival" effect had limited impact, and the marginal effect of the real estate sprint weakened. Social financing growth was maintained due to corporate bond issuance, and the M2 growth rate declined slightly, with non - bank deposits and household deposits all decreasing year - on - year [1][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Credit: The household sector performed averagely, and the corporate sector was relatively better - **Household sector**: In November, household short - term loans decreased by 215.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 178.8 billion yuan, remaining significantly below the seasonal level. The "shopping festival" effect on household consumption was limited. Household medium - and long - term loans increased by 10 billion yuan, slightly recovering from the previous month but still 290 billion yuan less than the same period last year. The real estate sales sprint had limited results, and the second - hand housing market continued to decline [2][10]. - **Corporate sector**: In November, corporate medium - and long - term loans increased by 170 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 40 billion yuan. The pull of policy - based financial instruments was limited, and it was the economic "off - season" at the end of the year, so it was difficult for corporate medium - and long - term loans to have significant increments. Corporate short - term loans were close to the seasonal level, and on - balance - sheet bills slightly supplemented. Bill financing increased by 334.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 211.9 billion yuan. The demand for low - price "ticket grabbing" was limited [2][11][18]. 3.2 Social Financing: Government bonds had a high base at the end of the year, and corporate bonds increased - **Government bonds**: In November, the issuance scale of government bonds increased, with new government bonds reaching 1.2 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 104.8 billion yuan. In December, affected by the base effect, the net financing of government bonds was expected to be 0.4 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.8 trillion yuan, and the social financing growth rate might fall to around 8.2% by the end of the year [3][22]. - **Corporate bonds and entrusted loans**: After the policy - based financial instruments were fully disbursed, entrusted loans turned negative, with a decrease of 18.8 billion yuan in November. November was the "peak season" for corporate bond issuance, with new corporate bonds reaching 416.9 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 178.8 billion yuan. Some enterprises replaced loans with bonds after the bond yields dropped significantly in October [3][25][28]. 3.3 Deposits: M1 growth rate declined, and non - bank deposits weakened - **M1**: The new - caliber M1 increased less month - on - month compared with the same period last year, and the M2 - M1 gap widened slightly. In November, the new - caliber M1 increased by 893.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.3 trillion yuan, and the year - on - year growth rate dropped from 6.2% to 4.9% [4][27]. - **M2 components**: Non - bank deposits grew more slowly, and household deposits were slightly lower than the historical average. In November, non - bank deposits increased by 80 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 100 billion yuan; household deposits increased by 670 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 120 billion yuan. The process of household deposits moving to non - bank deposits slowed down during the volatile adjustment of the equity market since November [4][34].

Report Title - "Bond Weekly Report: Stable Expectations, Awaiting the Year - End Real Estate Market - Weekly High - Frequency Tracking 20251213" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In the second week of December, the market was mainly affected by the off - season supply - demand fundamentals, with most industrial product prices falling and downstream demand release being moderately weak. Food prices continued to rise, and the decline in pork prices narrowed. Container shipping prices stopped falling and rebounded due to the year - end contract - signing season. Cement prices rose due to cost support and manufacturers' initiatives, but the demand support for price increases was limited. The apparent demand for building materials and rebar continued to decline. The new and second - hand housing markets in the real estate sector continued to weaken, and attention should be paid to the year - end sprint market [4][37]. - The Central Economic Work Conference set the tone that the macro - policy intensity in 2026 may be basically stable, focusing on quality improvement and efficiency enhancement, which meets market expectations. However, the conference also paid high attention to price recovery, which may cause some disturbances to the downward shift of the nominal interest rate center. Looking ahead, the November economic data will be released next week. From the PMI performance, it is expected that the production side will recover to some extent, but investment and consumption still face high bases, and domestic demand may still be lower than exports, similar to the situation in October. Looking forward to 2026, the conference clearly required investment to "stop falling and stabilize", fiscal policy may be front - loaded, and policies may be somewhat tilted towards investment. During the data vacuum period from January to February, attention can be focused on the high - frequency performance of physical work volume [4][37]. Summary of Each Section 1. Inflation - related - Food prices continued to rise. From December 8th to 12th, the national average wholesale price of pork decreased by 0.3% week - on - week, and the vegetable price increased by 0.7% week - on - week, with the growth momentum narrowing. The 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices and the wholesale price index of basket products increased by 1.0% and 1.2% week - on - week respectively, with the upward trend slowing down [10]. 2. Import and Export - related - The CCFI and SCFI indices stopped falling and rebounded. The CCFI index increased by 0.3% week - on - week, and the SCFI increased by 7.8% week - on - week. The overall transportation demand was stable this week, and the spot freight rates of some major ocean routes increased due to the year - end contract - signing season. The North American route was affected by the year - end market freight rate increase, but the demand did not improve significantly. The freight rates from Shanghai Port to the basic ports in the Western and Eastern United States increased by 14.8% and 14.6% week - on - week respectively [12]. - From December 1st to 7th, the container throughput and cargo throughput of ports decreased by 1.8% and 7.3% week - on - week respectively, both lower than the previous week. - The BDI and CDFI indices corrected. The international dry - bulk shipping market cooled down, the daily charter rates of large and medium - sized ships dropped significantly, and the Far - East dry - bulk charter rate index continued to decline from its high level. The quarterly volume - rushing of major miners was coming to an end, and the market trading activity decreased [12]. 3. Industry - related - The decline in coal prices continued to widen. The price of thermal coal (Q5500) at Qinhuangdao Port decreased by 4.5% week - on - week. Affected by warm weather, the demand for heating electricity in coastal areas increased, but the stable supply of long - term contract coal kept the power plant inventory stable. During the peak winter period, temporary navigation closures led to blocked circulation, a significant increase in the volume of goods gathered at the port, and the rising inventory suppressed coal prices [19]. - The price of rebar decreased slightly. The spot price of rebar (HRB400 20mm) decreased by 0.9% week - on - week. The inventory of major steel products decreased by 3.71% week - on - week, and that of rebar decreased by 6.2% week - on - week. The destocking pace was basically the same as last week and remained relatively fast. The apparent demand for building materials decreased by 5.8% week - on - week, and that of rebar decreased by 6.5% week - on - week, accelerating the weakening in the off - season [19]. - The asphalt operating rate decreased slightly. This week, the asphalt plant operating rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 27.8%, a year - on - year decrease of 1.9%, indicating a marginal weakening of infrastructure demand [19]. - Copper prices continued to rise. This week, the average prices of Yangtze River non - ferrous copper and LME copper increased by 2.9% and 2.7% week - on - week respectively. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and the market expected further easing next year, with the weakening US dollar supporting price increases. It is the domestic consumption off - season, spot transactions were basically stable, and downstream buyers were more cautious about high prices, with limited incremental replenishment demand [20]. - The decline in glass prices widened. The spot market trading was okay, with some areas continuing to destock and a few slightly increasing inventory. Market sentiment weakened compared with the previous week, most downstream enterprises made rigid - demand purchases, the whole market continued to destock, but there was still overall shipment pressure [20]. 4. Investment - related - The increase in cement prices slightly expanded. This week, the weekly average of the cement price index increased by 0.56% week - on - week. As the weather turned cold, demand contracted. Price increases in North China were not fully implemented. Construction in Northeast China stopped. Driven by costs, prices in East China and other regions continued to rise, with the overall price tending to stabilize and slightly increase. In Central South China, demand was weak, and prices rebounded after multiple price - pushing attempts [21][25]. - The decline in the transaction area of new houses in 30 cities widened. From December 5th to 11th, the transaction area of new houses in 30 cities was 196.5 million square meters, a week - on - week decrease of 7.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 33%. Attention should be paid to the year - end sprint effect in the middle and late December [29]. - The transaction volume of second - hand houses decreased slightly and steadily. From last Friday to this Thursday, the transaction area of second - hand houses decreased by 0.7% week - on - week, with a narrowing decline. It was better than the seasonal performance in 2023 - 2024, and the year - on - year decrease for the single week was 33%, mainly due to the high base last year [29]. 5. Consumption - related - In the first week of December, passenger car retail sales decreased by 32% year - on - year and continued to weaken month - on - month. According to the Passenger Car Association, from December 1st to 7th, the national passenger car market retail sales were 297,000 vehicles, a 32% decrease compared with the same period last December and an 8% decrease compared with the same period last month. The demand for trade - in accelerated release in December last year, resulting in a high base, and the subsidy intensity in some areas decreased, leading to the low year - on - year retail sales at the beginning of December [31]. - Crude oil prices weakened. As of December 12th, the prices of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil decreased by 4.1% and 4.4% week - on - week respectively, turning from rising to falling. The main reason was that the market expected an increase in crude oil supply from non - OPEC+ countries next year, causing total crude oil supply to exceed demand [31].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the macro - environment and policy layout for the bond market may remain basically stable, but the policy demand for "price recovery" has increased. The bond market may continue the range - bound trading, with a slight upward shift in the fluctuation center. Under the "stable growth" goal, the currency maintains a "moderately loose" tone, and the overall macro - policy emphasizes stability and quality rather than pursuing incremental growth. The policy's stronger demand for price recovery means that the impact of inflation on nominal interest rate pricing needs attention [7][10]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Macro - tone: A Stable Start with Emphasis on Efficiency - **Macro - situation judgment**: The meeting acknowledges "old problems and new challenges" and the "external environment", and points out the "contradiction of strong supply and weak demand". It highlights long - term contradictions in the economic transformation stage and the short - term uncertainty of the external economic and trade environment. It also implies that "anti - involution" and supply - side optimization need to be strengthened [11]. - **Overall tone**: The policy orientation is "seeking progress while maintaining stability and improving quality and efficiency". It focuses on stability and continuity, with a reduced demand for growth and progress. It aims to optimize practices and improve efficiency on the basis of stable policy strength, and gives priority to the "quality" of the economy over the "quantity". It also re - emphasizes "counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical" regulation, with a long - term perspective [12]. - **Fiscal policy**: It continues the positive tone, with the overall strength remaining flat. After the high fiscal increment in 2025, the focus may be on giving full play to the fiscal multiplier effect. It is expected that the fiscal deficit rate will remain at 4% in 2026. The use of quasi - fiscal tools will continue to support the goal of "stopping the decline and stabilizing investment" [14]. 2. Monetary Policy: Balancing Cross - cyclical Considerations - **Policy goals**: It focuses on growth and prices, and downplays the goal of financial aggregates. It aims to achieve "stable growth" and "reasonable price recovery" by maintaining reasonable liquidity, reducing the real financing cost, and ensuring the smooth operation of the interest rate transmission mechanism [16]. - **Use of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts**: It advocates "flexible and efficient" use of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, which is more concerned about policy effectiveness and consistent with the cross - cyclical regulation idea. In a neutral scenario, there may be one policy interest rate cut of 10bp in 2026, likely to occur from the end of the first quarter to the beginning of the second quarter [17]. 3. Key Tasks: Quality > Quantity, Focus on Amplifying Policy Multipliers (1) Domestic Demand Policy: Pursuing Effect and Quality, Weakening Incremental Expansion - **Consumption**: In 2026, consumption growth may still have potential. The meeting proposes a "residents' income increase plan", expands the supply of high - quality goods and services, and optimizes the implementation of "two new" policies. The stimulus for consumption demand may remain stable or decline, aiming to improve the multiplier effect [20]. - **Investment**: The meeting for the first time proposes to "stop the decline and stabilize investment", optimize the implementation of "two important" projects, and continue to use new policy - based financial tools. The policy may support investment more in 2026, and the growth rate is expected to turn positive [21]. (2) Deepening Reforms: Prioritizing "Anti - Involution" and Accelerating Debt Clearance - **Unified market construction**: It ranks higher, with the goal of price recovery being emphasized. It formulates a "regulation" and re - emphasizes "anti - involution", which may affect the bond market's interest rate center [24]. - **Debt clearance**: It is necessary to accelerate the clearance of arrears to enterprises. In 2026, the importance of local debt clearance may remain high, and its impact on investment needs attention [24]. - **Small and medium - sized financial institutions**: There is an increase in the "reduction and quality improvement" of small and medium - sized financial institutions, and the trend of mergers is expected to continue [24]. 4. Risk Resolution: Adding Content on Local Debt Resolution, Reducing Real Estate Policy Intensity (1) Local Debt: Actively and Orderly Resolve Local Government Debt Risks - The meeting adds specific statements on local government debt risks, emphasizes the territorial and main responsibilities of debt resolution, and maintains a high - pressure regulatory attitude towards new hidden debts. It also mentions the risk of local government financing platform operating debts and may optimize relevant debt restructuring and replacement measures [26]. - It requires accelerating the clearance of arrears to enterprises, emphasizing the "three guarantees" bottom line and "living a tight - fisted life" [26]. (2) Real Estate: Weakening the Goal of Stopping the Decline and Stabilizing, "De - stocking" by City - The meeting deletes the goal of "stopping the decline and stabilizing" the real estate market, and the policy intensity is reduced. It focuses on supply - side optimization and de - stocking through measures such as "controlling increments", "de - stocking", and "encouraging the acquisition of stock properties" [27].

www.hczq.com 证券研究报告 | 医药生物 | 2025年12月13日 华创医药投资观点&研究专题周周谈 · 第154期 2025Q3实体药店市场分析 本周专题联系人：高初蕾 华创医药团队： | 首席分析师 | 郑辰 | | 执业编号：S0360520110002 | 邮箱：zhengchen@hcyjs.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 联席首席分析师 | | 刘浩 | 执业编号：S0360520120002 | 邮箱：liuhao@hcyjs.com | | 医疗器械组组长 | | 李婵娟 | 执业编号：S0360520110004 | 邮箱：lichanjuan@hcyjs.com | | 中药和流通组组长 | | 高初蕾 | 执业编号：S0360524070002 | 邮箱：gaochulei@hcyjs.com | | 分析师 | 王宏雨 | | 执业编号：S0360523080006 | 邮箱：wanghongyu@hcyjs.com | | 分析师 | 朱珂琛 | | 执业编号：S0360524070007 | 邮箱：zhukechen@h ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, Cambricon Technologies Co., Ltd. (寒武纪-U) [1] Core Insights - Cambricon is a leading player in the domestic AI chip sector, focusing on the development and innovation of AI chips, with a comprehensive product matrix covering cloud, edge, and terminal solutions [6][22] - The company has experienced explosive revenue growth, with a projected revenue increase from 1.17 billion yuan in 2024 to 20.69 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 56.4% [2][9] - The AI chip market in China is expected to grow significantly, with projections indicating a market size increase from 142.54 billion yuan in 2024 to 1,336.79 billion yuan by 2029, driven by the demand for AI computing power [6][8] Summary by Sections 1. Strong Research and Technical Background - Cambricon, established in 2016, is recognized as a leading enterprise in the AI chip field, focusing on AI chip research and technology innovation [13] - The company has developed a complete technical system from instruction set architecture to chip design and basic system software, making it one of the few domestic AI computing solution providers with full-stack self-research capabilities [6][20] 2. Explosive Demand in the GPU Market - The global GPU market is undergoing structural changes, with AI, big data, and cloud computing driving a continuous increase in computing power demand [6][44] - The domestic AI chip market is expected to see a compound annual growth rate of 53.7% from 2025 to 2029, with the GPU market share projected to rise from 69.9% in 2024 to 77.3% in 2029 [6][8] 3. Hardware and Software Synergy - Cambricon has iterated its MLUarch microarchitecture to the fifth generation, supporting high-performance computing needs and establishing a strong technical barrier [8][20] - The NeuWare platform enhances software development efficiency, reducing barriers for developers and increasing ecosystem stickiness [8][20] 4. Profitability Forecast - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth, with projected revenues of 72.62 billion yuan in 2025, 132.28 billion yuan in 2026, and 206.85 billion yuan in 2027, alongside corresponding net profits of 25.20 billion yuan, 48.97 billion yuan, and 77.99 billion yuan [2][9][22] 5. Investment Logic - The investment logic is based on three dimensions: solidifying technical barriers, explosive demand from AI models driving GPU needs, and strategic positioning to capture domestic replacement opportunities [8][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for China Hongqiao (01378.HK) with a target price of HKD 34.3, indicating a potential upside from the current price of HKD 31.36 [1]. Core Views - China Hongqiao is positioned as a high-dividend stock in the electrolytic aluminum sector, showcasing both growth potential and industry leadership [1]. - The company has achieved record-high performance in its recent financial results, with a significant increase in net profit and revenue, driven by enhanced profitability in the electrolytic aluminum sector [4][5]. - The company is optimistic about its future prospects, as evidenced by the controlling shareholder's recent share purchases, reflecting confidence in the company's growth trajectory [4]. Company Overview - Total shares outstanding: 992,438.02 million - Total market capitalization: HKD 3,112.29 billion - Debt-to-asset ratio: 49.08% - Net asset value per share: HKD 11.92 - 12-month price range: HKD 34.90 (high) / HKD 10.96 (low) [1]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of HKD 1169.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6%, and a net profit of HKD 193.7 billion, up 23% year-on-year [4]. - The third quarter alone saw revenue of HKD 387 billion, with a net profit of HKD 69 billion, reflecting an 18% increase year-on-year [4]. - The company expects to achieve net profits of HKD 248.03 billion, HKD 258.1 billion, and HKD 279.6 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, indicating a growth trajectory of 10.9%, 4.1%, and 8.3% [5]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights a favorable outlook for aluminum prices, with expectations of a balanced supply-demand scenario globally, which is likely to support price increases [4]. - The average aluminum price in China has risen to HKD 21,407 per ton, a 3.4% increase from the previous quarter [4]. - The company is set to benefit from the commissioning of the Simandou iron ore project, which is expected to enhance its earnings further [4]. Valuation Metrics - The report adjusts the aluminum price assumptions for 2025-2027 to HKD 20,600, HKD 21,000, and HKD 21,300 per ton, respectively, while lowering the alumina price assumptions [5]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are HKD 2.25, HKD 2.50, and HKD 2.60, respectively [5].