Group 1: Export Performance - In July, China's exports in USD terms increased by 7.2% year-on-year, slightly below the forecast of 7.5% but exceeding Bloomberg's expectation of 5.4%[3] - The month-on-month export growth was -1.1%, which is below the historical average of approximately 3.3% over the past decade, indicating a weaker performance compared to historical trends[4] - The resilience of exports is notable despite the significant tariffs imposed by the US, with cumulative year-on-year growth reaching 6.1% as of July, surpassing the 5.8% growth expected for 2024[7] Group 2: Import Dynamics - July imports also exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year growth of 4.1%, significantly higher than the forecast of -1% and the previous month's growth of 1.1%[6] - The primary contributors to the import growth were raw materials and intermediate goods, including crude oil, copper ore, and integrated circuits, with "other unspecified goods" contributing 4.5 percentage points to the import growth[6] - The sustainability of this import growth remains uncertain, particularly as commodity prices decline and manufacturing PMI import indices remain below the threshold, indicating potential downward pressure on future import growth[6] Group 3: Regional Export Insights - The strongest export growth was observed in three regions: ASEAN, Africa, and the EU, which collectively contributed 6 percentage points to the year-on-year export growth in July[4] - Exports to the EU have been recovering in line with the manufacturing cycle in the Eurozone, with growth rates for exports to the EU maintaining around 9%-10% since March[7] - Exports to Africa showed the highest growth, particularly in vehicles and parts, with year-on-year growth soaring from 52.3% in April to 82.9% in June, significantly boosting overall export performance to Africa[6] Group 4: Future Outlook - The overall outlook for exports suggests potential adjustments in the second half of the year, with external demand expected to slow down and the impact of high base effects in the fourth quarter likely to exert downward pressure on year-on-year growth rates[6] - Leading indicators from G7 countries suggest that China's export growth may range between 3%-4% for the year, with a potential slowdown to 0%-2% in the latter half[6] - The combination of external demand pressures and high base effects could lead to a challenging environment for maintaining current export growth levels[6]

Export Performance - In July, China's exports in USD terms increased by 7.2% year-on-year, slightly below the forecast of 7.5% but above Bloomberg's expectation of 5.4%[1] - The month-on-month export growth was -1.1%, which is significantly lower than the historical average of approximately 3.3% over the past decade[3] - The strong export performance is supported by a low base effect from July of the previous year, which saw a month-on-month decline of 2.3%[12] Import Performance - July imports in USD terms rose by 4.1%, exceeding Bloomberg's forecast of -1% and the previous month's growth of 1.1%[1] - The main contributors to the import growth were raw materials and intermediate goods, including crude oil, copper ore, and integrated circuits[2] - The category of "other unspecified goods" significantly contributed to import growth, adding 4.5 percentage points in July compared to 2 percentage points in June[40] Regional Export Insights - Exports to ASEAN, Africa, and the EU were particularly strong, contributing a combined 6 percentage points to the overall export growth in July[15] - The EU's recovery in manufacturing is closely linked to the increase in exports, with a consistent growth rate of 9%-10% from March to July[17] - Exports to Africa showed the highest growth, driven mainly by vehicles and parts, with a year-on-year increase of 82.9% in June[26] Future Outlook - External demand is expected to slow down, with the global manufacturing PMI new export orders index dropping from 49.1% in June to 48.5% in July[34] - The third quarter is anticipated to have a low base effect, while the fourth quarter may face higher comparative figures, potentially leading to downward pressure on year-on-year growth rates[35] - Overall, export growth for the year is projected to be between 3% and 4%, with the second half of the year likely seeing growth rates of 0% to 2%[34]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A series of policies have been introduced across various sectors, including macro - economic, fiscal, monetary, financial regulatory, real estate, and tariff policies, aiming to promote economic stability, adjust industry structures, and manage international trade relationships [1][2][3] - The focus is on implementing existing policies, with an emphasis on policy continuity and stability, while also promoting new initiatives to support emerging industries and address social issues such as population growth [11][12][13] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro - Tone - A package of parenting subsidies and fertility support measures have been introduced. From 2025, a parenting subsidy of 3,600 yuan per child per year will be provided until the child is 3 years old. Free preschool education for the last year in public kindergartens will start in the fall of 2025, benefiting about 12 million people this fall and increasing government expenditure by about 20 billion yuan [11][16] - The Politburo meeting emphasized policy continuity and stability, mainly focusing on implementing existing fiscal and monetary policies. The "moderately loose" monetary policy tone continues [12] - The list of "two - major" construction projects has been fully released. The third batch of 69 billion yuan for consumer goods trade - in has been issued, and the fourth batch of 69 billion yuan will be issued in October. New policy - based financial instruments are to be established and launched soon [13] 2. Fiscal Policy - Use a more proactive fiscal policy, establish a debt - service reserve fund system to prevent risks, and accelerate the issuance and use of government bonds [17] - Starting from August 8, 2025, VAT will be restored on the interest income of newly issued national, local, and financial bonds. Natural persons with a monthly quota of no more than 1 million yuan will enjoy a VAT exemption until the end of 2027 [18] - The Ministry of Finance reported six typical cases of local government implicit debt accountability, and some provinces have exited the high - risk area list [18][19] 3. Monetary Policy - Continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, coordinate treasury management and national debt issuance and redemption with the fiscal department [21] - Seven departments including the central bank jointly issued a document to support the improvement of science and technology finance efficiency, and support the cultivation of emerging industries and forward - looking layout of future industries [22] - In August, the 3 - month term buy - back repurchase was operated earlier, and a second 6 - month operation may occur in the middle of the month, reflecting the coordination between monetary and fiscal policies [23] 4. Financial Supervision - The maximum预定 interest rate of insurance products has been lowered. Ordinary insurance products decreased by 50BP to 2.0%, dividend - type insurance products decreased by 25BP to 1.75%, and universal insurance products decreased by 50BP to 1.0% [25] - The second batch of 12 new floating - rate funds have been approved, with the fee level linked to product returns [26] - Guotai Junan Asset Management initiated the absorption and merger of Haitong Asset Management [26] 5. Real Estate Policy - Coordinate to resolve real - estate enterprise bond default risks, improve real - estate financial macro - prudential management, and support the construction of a new real - estate development model [29] - Harbin increased the housing provident fund loan limit for "trade - in" home - buying families; Beijing strengthened support for multi - child families' housing; Kunming optimized the provident fund withdrawal policy [30] - Shanghai accelerated the "two - old and one - village" renovation, planning to start 25 village renovation projects this year. Some cities promoted the conversion of non - residential properties to rental housing [31][32] 6. Tariff Policy - The third round of Sino - US negotiations ended, and the 24% part of the US reciprocal tariffs and China's counter - measures will be extended for 90 days, reducing export uncertainties [34] - Trump signed an executive order to set "reciprocal tariffs" for multiple countries, with rates ranging from 10% to 41%, effective August 7 [35] - The US will impose a 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products and a 100% tariff on chips and semiconductors starting from August 1 and August 6 respectively [35]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the industry, expecting the industry index to rise more than 5% over the next 3-6 months compared to the benchmark index [24]. Core Insights - Victory Securities reported a significant turnaround in its financial performance, achieving a net profit of 41.25 million HKD in H1 2025, compared to a loss of 5.76 million HKD in the same period last year, driven by a recovery in the Hong Kong stock market and strong growth in virtual asset business [3][4]. - The company's revenue reached 123.72 million HKD in H1 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 318.5%, with traditional brokerage services recovering and virtual asset services becoming the largest revenue source, contributing 52% to total revenue [4][10]. - A strategic partnership was established between Victory Securities and Cao Cao Travel, focusing on the application of Real World Assets (RWA) in the transportation sector, which includes tokenizing physical assets and optimizing payment experiences using stablecoins [11][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, Victory Securities achieved a net profit of 41.25 million HKD, a significant recovery from a loss of 5.76 million HKD in H1 2024 [4][6]. - The company's revenue for H1 2025 was 123.72 million HKD, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 318.5% [8]. Business Segments - Traditional brokerage services accounted for 46% of total revenue in H1 2025, while virtual asset services contributed 52%, indicating a shift in revenue sources [12]. - The brokerage business saw a revenue increase of 205% year-on-year, while virtual asset services experienced a staggering growth of 1989% [4]. Strategic Developments - The partnership with Cao Cao Travel aims to explore innovative applications of RWA, including tokenization of physical assets and enhancing payment solutions for international users [11][12]. - This collaboration positions Victory Securities as a leader in the RWA sector in Hong Kong, expanding its Web3.0 investment banking capabilities [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - China's export in July increased by 7.2% year-on-year, and import increased by 4.1%. The "rush to export" and price increase supported the export to exceed expectations, while the price increase was the main driver for the import growth [3]. - In the short term, the "rush to export" logic may be weakening, and the export in August may decline. In the medium term, the uncertainty of tariff policies may decrease, and the support from quantity and price to export may decline, with the pressure of export slowdown gradually emerging [3]. - For imports, the CRB increase in August is still at a high level, which is expected to support the import reading. Attention should be paid to the repair elasticity of domestic demand, import volume, and price [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Export: The re - warming of entrepot trade in July under the uncertainty of tariff negotiations - **Overall situation**: In July, the export growth rate was +7.2%, rising for two consecutive months. The "rush to export" logic was strong due to the uncertainty of tariff negotiations, and the export price increase also contributed to the high export growth from June to July. However, the "rush to export" logic is weakening, and the export may decline in August [3][20]. - **By commodity type** - Labor - intensive consumer goods: The year - on - year export declined to - 3.1%. The reasons may be the pre - Christmas rush to export in June and the "price - for - volume" strategy [1][22]. - Intermediate goods: The export growth rate continued to rise, with a combined year - on - year increase of 18.6% for five types, driving the export growth by 2.1 percentage points. It is expected to remain the main support for exports [1][26]. - Electronic products: The drag on export increased. The combined year - on - year decline of mobile phones and laptops was - 1.3%, and the contribution to export was - 18.1% [29]. - Automobiles: The driving effect on export remained high, with a year - on - year increase of 18.6% in export value, driving the export growth by 0.6 percentage points [29]. - **By country** - Developed economies: The year - on - year export growth rates to the US, EU, and Japan were - 21.7%, +9.3%, and +2.5% respectively. The EU's export weight continued to be higher than the same period, showing a substitution effect [2][34]. - ASEAN: The export share decreased, with a year - on - year increase of 16.6% in July, a slight slowdown of 0.4 pct [2][34]. - Latin America: The proportion rebounded, with a year - on - year increase of 7.7% in export in July ( - 2.1% in June), and the share rose to 8.3%, reaching a new high since August 2024. Entrepot trade heated up [2][34]. 3.2 Import: Price increase drives the further upward movement of imports - **Overall situation**: In July, the import amount increased by 4.1% year - on - year, rising further after turning positive in June. The price increase was the main driving force, and the CRB spot index had a good synchronicity with the import amount growth rate [2][38]. - **By commodity type** - Upstream bulk commodities: The import drag narrowed, with a combined year - on - year decline of 7.9% in the import amount of five types of upstream bulk commodities, which was 3.5 pct higher than that in June [39]. - Intermediate goods: The growth rate continued to rise, with a combined year - on - year increase of 9.5% in the import of four types, driving the import growth by 1.9% [39]. - Downstream consumer goods: The drag also narrowed, with a combined year - on - year decline of - 15.6% in the import of three types of consumer goods ( - 21.0% in June) [39].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Changshu Bank, with a target price of 9.59 CNY, compared to the current price of 7.87 CNY [2][7]. Core Views - Changshu Bank's performance remains strong, with a year-on-year revenue growth of 10.10% to 6.062 billion CNY and a net profit growth of 13.51% to 1.969 billion CNY in the first half of 2025 [2][6]. - The bank's non-performing loan ratio remains stable at 0.76%, with a provision coverage ratio of 489.53% [2][6]. - The bank has initiated a mid-term dividend with a payout ratio of 25.3%, reflecting a commitment to returning value to shareholders [2][6]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2025 is projected to reach 12.028 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth rate of 10.20% [8]. - Net profit for 2025 is estimated at 4.320 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 13.30% [8]. - The bank's total assets are expected to grow to 406.872 billion CNY by 2025, with a loan total of 255.314 billion CNY [9][12]. Asset Quality Summary - The non-performing loan ratio is projected to remain stable at 0.77% for 2025, with a provision coverage ratio expected to decrease to 441.60% [10][11]. - The bank's credit impairment losses are anticipated to increase by 11.2% to 1.494 billion CNY [6][10]. Dividend and Capital Management - The bank has announced a cash dividend of 0.15 CNY per share, totaling 4.97 billion CNY, which represents 25.27% of the net profit for the first half of 2025 [6][7]. - The bank's capital management strategy includes a potential redemption of convertible bonds, which could support capital replenishment and facilitate healthy credit issuance [6][7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Market Review: The overall market showed a volatile upward trend in July. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 3.7%, and the average return of active equity - oriented funds was 4.6%, with institutions slightly outperforming the market. Trading volume increased significantly, with the average daily trading volume of the whole A - shares in July reaching 1.6 trillion yuan (compared to 1.4 trillion yuan from January to June this year). The cycle + growth sectors led, and the dumbbell configuration adjusted. In terms of style, small - cap growth continued to dominate. Fund heavy - holding stocks and the non - changing - face sub - new stock portfolio significantly outperformed, while strong - performing stocks and the quantitative sub - new stock portfolio significantly underperformed [4]. - Market Outlook: Wait for the second half of the physical re - inflation. Focus on ten - bagger stocks, quantitative sub - new stocks, and reversal strategies. The report adheres to the view that before the return of physical inflation, the stock market will be the carrier of surplus liquidity. As inflation returns with the progress of "anti - involution", the bull market may gradually evolve from the first half of financial re - inflation to the second half of physical re - inflation. Some positive changes have occurred, such as the year - on - year growth of M1 (old caliber) turning positive for two consecutive months. If the decline of PPI significantly narrows in the next 6 - 12 months, the repair of corporate EPS will become a new driving force. In the current stage of continuous monetary easing but without confirmed EPS repair, it is recommended to focus on the combination of ten - bagger stocks, quantitative sub - new stocks, and reversal strategies [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Growth - type Strategies 3.1.1 Sub - new Stock Combinations - Non - changing - face Sub - new Stock Combination: If a stock's ROE and net profit growth rate attributable to the parent company in the year of listing and the following year are higher than the average of the three years before listing, it is considered that the stock's fundamentals continue to perform well. Since 2010, it has achieved an excess return of 311% compared to the Wind All - A Index, and an excess return of 6% in the past month. The screening criteria include that the net profit growth rate of the year of listing and the following year is greater than the average of the three years before listing, and the ROE of the year of listing and the following year is greater than the average ROE of the three years before listing multiplied by an adjustment coefficient. The stocks in the current pool with high monthly gains include Yifang Biotech and Yahong Pharmaceutical [16][17]. - Quantitative Sub - new Stock Combination: Through quantitative back - testing, key factors affecting the performance of sub - new stocks are found. Since 2010, it has achieved an excess return of 324% compared to the Wind All - A Index, and an excess return of - 3% in the past month. The screening criteria include ROE (TTM) in the top 40%, net profit growth rate attributable to the parent company in the top 40%, sales gross margin (TTM) in the top 40%, sales expense ratio (TTM) in the top 40%, and total market capitalization less than 20 billion yuan. The stocks in the current pool with high monthly gains include Tiancheng Technology and Zhongrun Optics [21][22]. 3.1.2 Ten - bagger Stock Combinations - Ten - bagger Stock Individual Stock Combination: Special genes of ten - bagger stocks are searched from five perspectives: price movement, company, performance, valuation, and industry, and screening criteria for potential ten - bagger stocks in the future are constructed accordingly. Since 2010, it has achieved an excess return of 176% compared to the Wind All - A Index, and no excess return in the past month. The screening criteria involve multiple aspects such as maximum increase, management compensation, major shareholder's pledge ratio, financial indicators, and market capitalization. The stocks in the current pool with high monthly gains include Boke New Materials and Jack Co., Ltd. [28][29]. - Ten - bagger Stock Fund Manager Combination: Starting from the perspective of fund managers, their aesthetic preferences and trading behaviors are analyzed to screen out 20 potential ten - bagger stocks. Since 2010, it has achieved an excess return of 44% compared to the Wind All - A Index, and an excess return of - 1% in the past month. The screening criteria are based on the frequency of ten - bagger stocks held by funds in the past 10 quarters. The stocks in the current pool with high monthly gains include Dongshan Precision and Wuxi AppTec [36][37]. 3.2 Value - type Strategies 3.2.1 High - dividend Stock Combination - The high - dividend strategy is a relatively mature strategy overseas. A high - dividend stock combination constructed in the CSI 300 index has also achieved significant excess returns. Since 2010, it has achieved an excess return of 133% compared to the Wind All - A Index, and an excess return of - 2% in the past month. The screening criteria are to select the top 20 stocks with the highest dividend yield from the CSI 300 index constituents, and the portfolio is re - balanced on April 30 every year. The stocks in the current pool with high monthly gains include Lu'an Environmental Energy and Shanxi Coking Coal [46]. 3.2.2 High Free - cash - flow Return Combination - In the era of a stock economy, companies shift from pursuing scale to pursuing profit and cash flow. A combination is constructed from the perspectives of "high free - cash - flow return" and "low investment and high profit distribution to shareholders". Since 2010, it has achieved an excess return of 243% compared to the Wind All - A Index, and an excess return of - 2% in the past month. The screening criteria involve free - cash - flow return, dividend + share - repurchase ratio, capital expenditure ratio, and net working - capital increase ratio. The stocks in the current pool with high monthly gains include Yabao Pharmaceutical and Shantui Construction Machinery [54][55]. 3.2.3 PEG and PB - ROE Combinations - PEG Combination: The PEG strategy comprehensively considers the matching of valuation and growth. Since 2010, it has achieved an excess return of 120% compared to the Wind All - A Index, and an excess return of 2% in the past month. The screening criteria include that the stock's PE/G is lower than the median of its Shenwan primary industry, positive PE, positive net profit growth rate in the past three years and the next two years, low standard deviation of net profit growth rate, and more than one - year listing time. The stocks in the current pool with high monthly gains include Tianfu Communication and Tebao Bio - Pharm [65]. - PB - ROE Combination: The PB - ROE strategy also considers the matching of valuation and profitability, and is more applicable to value - type stocks in cyclical and financial real - estate industries. Since 2010, it has achieved an excess return of 63% compared to the Wind All - A Index, and an excess return of 2% in the past month. The screening criteria include that the stock's PB/ROE is lower than the median of its Shenwan primary industry, excluding stocks with negative ROE. The stocks in the current pool with high monthly gains include Shengde Xintai and New China Life Insurance [72][73]. 3.3 Momentum - type Strategies 3.3.1 Buying Strong - performing Stocks Combination - The strategy of buying strong - performing stocks is based on the idea of trend investment. Since 2010, it has achieved an excess return of - 155% compared to the Wind All - A Index, and an excess return of - 4% in the past month. The screening criteria are to select the top 100 stocks with the highest monthly gains and exclude ST stocks, and the portfolio is re - balanced on the first trading day of each month. The stocks with high monthly gains in July include GuangShengTang and Shangwei New Materials [81][82]. 3.3.2 Reversal Strategy Combination - The reversal strategy aims to bet on the inflection point of individual stocks, based on the mean - reversion concept. Since 2010, it has achieved an excess return of 190% compared to the Wind All - A Index, and an excess return of - 2% in the past month. The screening criteria are to select the top 100 stocks with the highest monthly losses and exclude ST stocks, and the portfolio is re - balanced on the first trading day of each month. The stocks with high monthly losses in July include Yuandao Communication and Shanda Electric Power [92][93]. 3.3.3 Buying Fund Heavy - holding Stocks Combination - The idea of buying fund heavy - holding stocks is to "copy the homework", aiming to build a safety margin by following the market consensus in a weak market. Since 2010, it has achieved an excess return of - 44% compared to the Wind All - A Index, and an excess return of 7% in the past month. The screening criteria are to select the top 20 stocks held by three types of active equity - oriented funds, and the portfolio is re - balanced at the end of each quarter. The stocks in the current pool with high monthly gains include New H3C Technologies and Zhongji Innolight [100][101].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 19.11 CNY [2][9]. Core Insights - The company reported steady growth in revenue and profit, with H1 2025 revenue reaching 9.398 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 11.63%, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 951 million CNY, up 28.98% year-on-year [2]. - The company continues to deepen its integrated supply chain strategy, which is expected to enhance profitability and operational efficiency [9]. - The revenue from phosphate fertilizers has steadily increased, with the proportion of new fertilizers rising, contributing to improved gross margins [3][9]. Financial Performance Summary - For H1 2025, the company achieved a gross margin of 18.21%, an increase of 2.48 percentage points year-on-year, with specific segments showing varied performance: phosphate fertilizers at 19.81%, conventional compound fertilizers at 12.56%, and new compound fertilizers at 24.48% [9]. - The company has been expanding its production capacity for new fertilizers, including a 350,000-ton/year project in Xinjiang and a 1 million-ton/year project in Bengbu [9]. - The financial forecasts for 2025-2027 indicate a projected revenue growth rate of 9.7% in 2025, with net profit expected to grow by 21.7% [5][10]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has successfully increased its market share in new fertilizer products, with sales growing from 548,500 tons in 2018 to 1,380,000 tons in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 16.63% [9]. - The strategic focus on product innovation and market expansion is expected to continue driving revenue and profit growth, reinforcing the company's competitive position in the industry [9].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the yellow wine industry Core Insights - The yellow wine industry is experiencing a revival, driven by its health benefits and cultural significance, aligning with new consumer trends towards health and quality [8][9] - The industry is currently in a phase of stock competition, with market concentration increasing among leading companies [21][31] - The yellow wine market is primarily concentrated in the Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai regions, which account for approximately 75% of the total production [38][41] Summary by Sections 1. Introduction - The report focuses on the yellow wine industry, analyzing its current state and exploring effective paths for value reconstruction [8] 2. Overview of Yellow Wine - Yellow wine is one of the three ancient wines globally, with a history dating back over 9,000 years, deeply intertwined with Chinese culture [9][10] - It is defined as a low-alcohol fermented beverage made from various grains, with an alcohol content of 14%-20% [10][11] 3. Industry Development Status - The yellow wine industry is characterized by a small market share, accounting for less than 2% of the total wine sales in China as of 2023 [21][24] - The number of large-scale yellow wine enterprises has decreased by approximately 28% from 2016 to 2023, indicating a trend towards market concentration among leading firms [21][26] - The industry faces challenges such as limited national promotion, reliance on traditional distribution channels, and an aging consumer demographic [23][43][45] 4. Restructuring the Value of the Yellow Wine Industry - The industry is entering a golden period for value reconstruction, focusing on high-end product positioning, innovation, and cultural empowerment [8][23] - Companies are actively developing new products to cater to younger consumers, such as fruit-flavored and health-oriented yellow wines [50] - There is a shift from product consumption to cultural consumption, leveraging the historical and cultural significance of yellow wine to attract younger demographics [50] 5. Future Outlook for the Industry - The yellow wine industry is expected to enter a phase of value enhancement, with initial signs of transformation becoming evident [8][21] - Despite challenges in market penetration and consumer recognition, the industry is poised for sustainable growth as it overcomes existing difficulties [8][21]

Core Insights - The overall recovery of actively managed public funds has reached 95% since the last bull market peak. A 5% increase in the equity fund index could correspond to a 5% rise in the Shanghai Composite Index, targeting around 3800 points [9][32][40] - Among the 3 trillion new funds, the thematic funds have a scale of 500 billion, with consumption funds at 40%, manufacturing funds at 31%, and pharmaceutical funds at 19%. The new funds have faced greater pressure, with an overall recovery to an average of 94% of the initial net value, while the pharmaceutical funds have returned to positive, consumption funds at 82%, and manufacturing funds at 88% [9][46] - The asset allocation of Chinese residents is primarily concentrated in housing and stocks, with the adjustments in the stock and real estate markets over the past three years being the main reason for the shrinkage of residents' balance sheets. Stabilizing these markets is crucial for improving residents' income [9][10][22] - Compared to real estate, the stock market is a key foundation for the future recovery of residents' balance sheets and the enhancement of property income. The current recovery of the 3 trillion new funds reflects the significant impact of this bull market on the repair of residents' balance sheets [10][23] Fund Performance Analysis - The performance of old funds has been significantly lower than that of new funds, with old funds showing an average net value return of -12%, while new funds have achieved an average return of 2%. The disparity in returns is primarily due to the higher base of net value calculations for old funds [38][40] - As of August 6, 2025, the overall average return of new and old funds has improved by 25 percentage points since the low in January 2024, with old funds recovering by 20 percentage points and new funds by 29 percentage points [40][41] - The analysis of thematic funds indicates that the performance of new funds in thematic sectors has been under pressure, with the average net value return for thematic funds in old funds at -17% and for new funds at -6% [46][51] Market Dynamics - The stock market's role as a vehicle for excess savings is emphasized, with the potential for an influx of 10 trillion yuan into the stock market if it returns to the average ratio of the past five years [10][12] - The report highlights the importance of policy support in stabilizing the stock and real estate markets, which has been a focus since September 2024, aiming to restore residents' balance sheets and enhance property income [10][22] - The recovery of residents' financial confidence is evident, with personal housing loan balances showing a positive trend after a period of decline, indicating a shift back to an expansion state for residents' balance sheets [22][23]