证 券 研 究 报 告 ESG 月报（2025 年 11 月） 新能源将与新兴产业融合互促发展 ❑ 行业发展动态： 1、政策动态：（1）国务院新闻办公室 11 月 8 日发布《碳达峰碳中和的中国行 动》白皮书，系统阐述中国推进"双碳"工作的战略部署、实践路径与显著成 就。（2）11 月 12 日，国家能源局发布关于促进新能源集成融合发展的指导意 见，旨在推动新能源由单一开发转向集成融合发展。到 2030 年，该模式将成 为新能源发展的重要方式。 2、行业热点：（1）第十五届全国运动会首次实现全过程碳中和，绿色低碳理 念贯穿赛事始终，这一创新实践不仅为粤港澳大湾区注入了绿色动能，更以实 际行动诠释了"体育精神"与"生态文明"的共生共荣。（2）宠物经济的繁荣 伴随显著环境压力，需通过政策监管、行业创新与公众理性消费协同推动其绿 色低碳转型，以实现可持续发展。 3、产业实践：（1）乐高超半数生产线改用纸袋，所有包装纤维材料占 93%， 亚洲工厂已基本完成改造，欧美工厂预计三年内完成，旨在减塑增效，为行业 提供可持续发展范例。（2）谷歌与道达尔能源签署 15 年协议，将从后者的太 阳能电站采购总计 1.5 太瓦时的认 ...

Group 1: Economic Characteristics of High-Income Economies - High-income economies generally maintain continuous growth in total factor productivity (TFP) as a key characteristic[1] - Traditional high-income economies and catching-up economies experience a slowdown in TFP growth around a per capita GDP of approximately $10,000, yet still maintain positive growth[2] - Middle-income economies see negative TFP growth when per capita GDP reaches the $2,000-$3,000 range[3] Group 2: Structural Transformation and Efficiency - The structural transformation in high-income economies features a leading service sector and a stable industrial sector, ensuring that productivity does not decline during the transition[4] - High-income economies maintain a stable industrial value-added share of GDP, which is crucial for sustained productivity growth[5] - Catching-up economies experience a decline in consumption rates during rapid industrialization, which later rebounds as per capita GDP exceeds $10,000[6] Group 3: Technological Progress and Education - Significant investment in research and education is observed in catching-up economies, contributing to their successful transition from middle-income to high-income status[7] - R&D expenditure per capita in catching-up economies is higher than in traditional high-income economies, indicating a strong correlation with economic growth[8] - Education metrics show that catching-up economies have higher average years of education and enrollment rates in higher education compared to traditional high-income economies[9] Group 4: Export Value and Government Efficiency - High-income economies focus on increasing the value-added of exports, which is essential for sustained export growth[10] - Traditional high-income economies exhibit strong government intervention in the early stages of development, with government spending stabilizing around 25% of GDP after reaching a per capita GDP of $10,000[11] - Lower corruption levels in high-income economies enhance institutional efficiency and resource allocation[12]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes that the evolution of AI and large models is characterized by a dialectical tension between "consumption" and "prosperity," indicating that true applications will integrate deeply into industries and continuously feed back data to expand Total Addressable Market (TAM) [3][11][20] - The global AI infrastructure spending is projected to reach $3-4 trillion by 2030, with significant contributions from NVIDIA and a rising trend in domestic AI computing power in China, expected to grow to 1.336 trillion yuan by 2029 [4][11] - The quantum computing market is anticipated to reach $6.1 billion by 2025, with China holding a 32% market share, indicating a robust growth trajectory in both domestic and international sectors [5][11] Group 2 - The report identifies three key investment themes for 2026: enterprise applications, computing infrastructure, and frontier technologies driven by AI, including quantum computing, commercial aerospace, and the HarmonyOS ecosystem [11][12] - The enterprise application sector is highlighted as a significant area of growth, with AI applications in advertising, programming, decision-making, ERP, office automation, and customer service expected to accelerate [11][14] - The report outlines specific companies and sectors poised for investment, including AppLovin and The Trade Desk in advertising, GitHub and Replit in programming, and SAP and Oracle in ERP solutions [14][15][16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 101 CNY, while the current price is 75.50 CNY [3]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 3.184 billion CNY, reflecting a growth of 1.88%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 203 million CNY, down 33.91% year-on-year [2][3]. - The decline in net profit is attributed to a high base effect from the previous year, where a significant asset disposal contributed approximately 93 million CNY to the net profit [3]. - The company has entered the respiratory and anesthesia equipment sector through the acquisition of Ningbo Shengyu Rui Medical Equipment Co., which is expected to enhance its product offerings and market penetration [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported: - Total revenue of 3.184 billion CNY (+1.88%) - Net profit of 203 million CNY (-33.91%) - Non-recurring net profit of 183 million CNY (-18.79%) [2]. - In Q3 2025, the company achieved: - Revenue of 1.084 billion CNY (+0.10%) - Net profit of 75 million CNY (-48.47%) - Non-recurring net profit of 65 million CNY (+2.00%) [2]. - Financial projections for 2024A to 2027E indicate a gradual increase in total revenue from 4.264 billion CNY in 2024 to 5.332 billion CNY in 2027, with corresponding net profits expected to rise from 385 million CNY to 395 million CNY [2][3]. Valuation Metrics - The projected P/E ratios for 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 65, 59, and 52 respectively, while the P/B ratios are expected to be 3.6, 3.4, and 3.3 [2][3]. - The report estimates the company's overall valuation at 26.8 billion CNY based on DCF modeling [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [23]. Core Insights - The company's domestic business is experiencing temporary pressure, while its overseas operations are entering a phase of realization of results. For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 1.69 billion yuan, a decrease of 22.52%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 134 million yuan, down 69.32% [1][7]. - In Q3 2025, the company recorded a revenue of 445 million yuan, a decline of 26.66%, and a net loss of 55 million yuan, compared to a profit of 80 million yuan in the same period last year [1][7]. Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 3,065 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 10.8%. However, for 2025, revenue is expected to drop to 2,223 million yuan, reflecting a decline of 27.5% [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 562 million yuan in 2024, with a significant drop to 162 million yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year decrease of 71.2% [3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to decrease from 1.20 yuan in 2024 to 0.35 yuan in 2025 [3]. Business Strategy and Market Position - The company is actively optimizing its operations in response to domestic market pressures, including cash flow management and divesting from less profitable segments. It aims to enhance operational efficiency and align its product matrix with policy directions to capture market opportunities in grassroots testing capabilities [7]. - The international business is gradually entering a growth phase, with steady contributions from the international department and the U.S. subsidiary. The company has established a local production capacity in the U.S. and is focusing on expanding its market share in North America, particularly in toxicology and respiratory testing [7]. Valuation and Price Target - The report estimates the company's overall valuation at 13.1 billion yuan, corresponding to a target price of approximately 28 yuan per share, based on a discounted cash flow (DCF) model [7].

Group 1 - The report highlights that the bond market in 2025 was characterized by a low interest rate environment, leading to limited trading space and strong credit bond allocation sentiment among institutions, with notable differentiation in performance across various bond types [3][4][12] - It is projected that in 2026, the fundamental and monetary conditions may not support a significant shift in the bond market, with credit risks primarily focusing on individual sentiment, and bond yields expected to maintain low volatility [3][4][12] - The report emphasizes the importance of identifying high coupon opportunities in a fluctuating market, while also monitoring seasonal, rotational, and redemption-related fluctuations for potential allocation windows [3][4][12] Group 2 - The credit bond market is expected to see a structural shift in demand, with a tendency towards shorter-duration bonds, while the stability of liabilities may weaken marginally [3][4][12] - The supply of credit bonds is anticipated to remain stable, with net financing in 2026 projected to be similar to that of 2025, and a continued focus on industrial bonds as the main supply source [3][4][12] - The report identifies specific sectors such as local government financing vehicles, real estate, steel, and coal as areas of concern regarding credit risk, highlighting the need for careful monitoring of individual issuers' fundamentals [3][4][12] Group 3 - The investment strategy for 2026 suggests focusing on high coupon asset allocation, particularly in a challenging trading environment, with a preference for weaker quality local government bonds and other high-yielding assets [3][4][12] - The report outlines the significance of seasonal characteristics and redemption impacts on credit bond performance, indicating that the first quarter may present favorable allocation opportunities [3][4][12] - Structural opportunities are noted in the development of credit bond ETFs, which are expected to attract long-term capital inflows and present arbitrage opportunities [3][4][12]

Group 1 - The report highlights that the current market conditions present a good window for credit bond allocation, despite limited room for a year-end rally due to cautious central bank policies and stable institutional funding [1][19][20] - The focus is on short to medium-term bonds (1-3 years) for their strong demand potential, while 4-5 year bonds should be considered for allocation at higher yield points due to expected volatility [2][23] - The report indicates that long-term bonds (5 years and above) may face challenges in demand stability, suggesting cautious participation from institutions with weaker funding stability [3] Group 2 - The strategy emphasizes prioritizing short-term credit bonds (3 years and below) and opportunistically allocating to 4-5 year bonds when yields are favorable [21][23] - The report notes that the credit spread for 1-year bonds is currently low, while 2-3 year bonds have shown a marginal recovery in spreads, indicating potential for investment [21][22] - The analysis of various sectors suggests that municipal investment bonds (城投债) and real estate bonds (地产债) present specific opportunities, particularly in lower-rated segments and those with strong regional backing [4][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company with a target price of 80 yuan [2][6]. Core Views - The company experienced a phase of performance pressure in 2025, with a revenue of 1.144 billion yuan (up 6.43%) and a net profit of 290 million yuan (down 8.64%) for the first three quarters [2]. - The company is accelerating its innovation and research and development efforts, with significant product launches expected to contribute to future growth [2][6]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profitability**: - For Q3 2025, revenue was 358 million yuan (down 8.17%), and net profit was 77 million yuan (down 29.85%) [2]. - The projected total revenue for 2024A is 1.41 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 48.2%, and expected to reach 2.34 billion yuan by 2027E [7]. - **Profit Forecast**: - The forecasted net profit for 2025E is 394 million yuan, with a growth rate of 1.5%, increasing to 571 million yuan by 2027E [7]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - The EPS is projected to be 2.01 yuan for 2024A, increasing to 2.95 yuan by 2027E [7]. Product and Market Insights - **Product Performance**: - The artificial lens and contact lens businesses faced temporary pressure due to market conditions, while the orthokeratology lens business showed robust growth [2][6]. - **Innovation and R&D**: - The company has launched two significant products in 2025, which are expected to enhance its market position and sales potential [2][6]. Valuation and Market Position - **Valuation Metrics**: - The company is valued at approximately 155 billion yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios projected at 29, 24, and 20 for the years 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E respectively [2][6]. - **Market Capitalization**: - The total market capitalization is reported at 11.633 billion yuan [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, with a target price of 24 yuan and a current price of 17.75 yuan [4][9]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 3.453 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting an increase of 8.52% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 211 million yuan, down 17.36% [2][9]. - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.190 billion yuan, up 13.40% year-on-year, but the net profit dropped significantly by 47.55% to 30 million yuan [2][9]. - The decline in profit is primarily attributed to cross-licensing patent fees impacting short-term profitability, specifically a payment of 19 million USD to Roche, which affected the net profit by approximately 136 million yuan [9]. Financial Performance Summary - The total revenue forecast for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E is 4.443 billion, 4.901 billion, 5.474 billion, and 6.250 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 9.5%, 10.3%, 11.7%, and 14.2% [4][10]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 326 million, 294 million, 485 million, and 581 million yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 14.7%, -10.1%, 65.3%, and 20.0% respectively [4][10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 0.58, 0.52, 0.87, and 1.04 yuan for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E respectively [4][10]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The company is experiencing steady growth in both traditional and continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) businesses, with double-digit revenue growth in Q3 2025 [9]. - The company has successfully navigated patent challenges, reaching a settlement with Roche and obtaining necessary patent licenses, which is crucial for its market expansion [9]. - The report highlights the importance of ongoing innovation and intellectual property management to mitigate risks associated with patent litigation from industry giants [9].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating an expected increase in the industry index exceeding the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [26]. Core Insights - The insurance industry has experienced a decline in both property and life insurance premiums, with total original premium income reaching 54,833 billion yuan from January to October 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8% but a month-on-month decrease of 0.8 percentage points [8][6]. - Life insurance premiums totaled 32,748 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 12% but a month-on-month decline of 0.7 percentage points [8]. - The report highlights that the sales of participating insurance and universal insurance products are expected to perform well due to favorable market conditions [8]. - The total assets of the insurance industry reached 40.6 trillion yuan by the end of October 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 13% [8]. - The report anticipates that participating insurance will become a key product for the upcoming sales season, driven by the attractiveness of "call options" in the current market environment [8]. Summary by Sections Key Company Profit Forecasts, Valuation, and Investment Ratings - China Pacific Insurance (601601.SH) is rated "Recommended" with an expected EPS of 5.68 yuan for 2025 and a PE ratio of 6.20 [4]. - China Life Insurance (601628.SH) is also rated "Recommended" with an expected EPS of 6.34 yuan for 2025 and a PE ratio of 6.89 [4]. - China Property & Casualty Insurance (02328.HK) is rated "Recommended" with an expected EPS of 2.07 yuan for 2025 and a PE ratio of 7.54 [4]. - China Taiping Insurance (00966.HK) is rated "Recommended" with an expected EPS of 3.00 yuan for 2025 and a PE ratio of 5.28 [4]. Industry Overview - The report indicates that the cumulative premium growth rates for both property and life insurance have declined, with life insurance premiums showing a year-on-year increase of 12% but a month-on-month decrease of 5.2% in October [8]. - The report notes that the health and accident insurance segments have seen growth, but their growth rates have also decreased month-on-month [8]. - The report emphasizes that the market's favorable conditions are expected to enhance the sales of participating insurance products [8]. Asset Changes - By the end of October 2025, the insurance industry had total assets of 40.6 trillion yuan, with life insurance companies holding 35.68 trillion yuan and property insurance companies holding 3.15 trillion yuan [8]. - The net assets of the insurance industry reached 3.81 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 14.7% [8].