S of In F 证券研究报告 【宏观快评】 进入政策效应观察期——7月经济数据前瞻 主要观点 左观研究 宏观快评 2025年08月03日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师:张瑜 邮箱:zhangyu3@hcyjs.com 执业编号:S0360518090001 证券分析师:陆银波 邮箱:luyinbo@hcyjs.com 执业编号:S0360519100003 证券分析师:文若愚 3)对于企业利润与现金流。在政府化债与偿还企业欠款、财政支出规模增加、 "反内卷"下大企业对中小企业账期进行调整、居民消费回暖等因素作用下, 关注企业现金流是否能持续改善(企业存款增速、企业活期存款增速)以及企 业盈利能力是否能保持稳定(如 ROA、ROE 等指标)。这对于改善企业资产 负债表,提升企业的支出意愿(如增加费用支出、提升员工薪酬)帮助较大。 一、物价:PPI环比跌幅或明显收窄 * 预计 7月份 PPI同比从-3.6%回升至-3.5%,PPI 环比约-0.1%,较上月的-0.4% 明显收窄。预计7月份 CPI 同比约-0.1%,CPI 环比约 0.3%。PPI 环比依然为 负,一方面是物价上涨反映到 PPI 上存在一定的时 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the automotive industry, with an optimistic outlook for sales and pricing in the second half of the year [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that July marks the end of the off-season, and there is an optimistic expectation for sales volume and pricing in the second half of the year, despite ongoing weak investment sentiment in the automotive sector [1][2]. - The impact of marketing activities and public opinion on high-end brands (priced between 200,000 to 600,000 yuan) is emphasized, indicating that poor execution can significantly affect sales and pricing [2]. Data Tracking - In July, new energy vehicle deliveries showed significant year-on-year growth for Xpeng, with deliveries of 37,000 units, a 229.4% increase year-on-year and a 6.1% increase month-on-month. BYD delivered 344,296 units, a 0.6% increase year-on-year but a 10.0% decrease month-on-month. Li Auto's deliveries were 30,731 units, down 39.7% year-on-year and 15.3% month-on-month [4][20]. - Traditional automakers also saw growth, with Geely's sales reaching 236,000 units in June, a 42.1% increase year-on-year. SAIC Motor ranked first with 365,000 units sold, a 21.6% increase year-on-year [4][23]. - The average discount rate in the automotive industry increased slightly to 10.0% in late July, with an average discount amount of 22,311 yuan, reflecting a 1.8 percentage point increase year-on-year [4][25]. Industry Research 1. **Complete Vehicles**: The report continues to recommend Jianghuai Automobile for its luxury vehicle offerings and strong competitiveness. It also recommends SAIC Motor and Great Wall Motors, while suggesting to pay attention to BAIC Blue Valley due to management reforms and the upcoming launch of the S9T model [6]. 2. **Auto Parts**: The report suggests selecting stocks based on low valuations this year and a projected growth rate of over 15% next year, recommending companies like Xingyu Co., Aikodi, and suggesting to watch New Spring Co., Jifeng Co., and Horizon Robotics [6]. 3. **Heavy Trucks**: The report notes a 42% year-on-year increase in heavy truck wholesale in July, with expectations for continued double-digit growth from August to October, recommending Shandong Heavy Industry and Weichai Power for current investments [6]. Market Performance - The automotive sector experienced a decline of 2.11% this week, ranking 16th out of 29 sectors. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.94%, while the automotive index saw declines across various segments, including parts and passenger vehicles [8][33].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Hisense Home Appliances, with a target price of 33 yuan, corresponding to a 12x PE for 2025 [2][8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 49.34 billion yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.08 billion yuan, up 3.0% year-on-year. However, Q2 2025 saw a revenue decline of 2.6% year-on-year to 24.5 billion yuan and a net profit drop of 8.3% year-on-year to 0.95 billion yuan [2][8]. - The external sales continue to grow, with overseas revenue increasing by 12.3% year-on-year, while domestic revenue slightly decreased by 0.3% [8]. - The air conditioning segment reported a revenue of 23.69 billion yuan in H1 2025, up 4.1% year-on-year, although central air conditioning faced a decline of 6.0% due to a weak real estate market [8]. - The washing machine business within the refrigeration and washing segment saw a significant revenue increase of 37.6% year-on-year, contributing positively to overall growth [8]. - The company is expected to recover growth in the coming quarters due to favorable weather conditions and government subsidies, despite facing high base pressure in Q2 [8]. Financial Summary - For 2024A, the main revenue is projected at 92.746 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 8.3%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 3.348 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 18.0% [4][9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025E is adjusted to 2.68 yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 10, 9, and 8 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [8][9]. - The company’s total assets are projected to grow from 69.702 billion yuan in 2024A to 84.298 billion yuan in 2027E, indicating a steady increase in financial strength [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report In the last week of July, with the central bank's support, funds smoothly crossed the month. The outcome of the Sino-US talks was in line with expectations, and the Politburo meeting mainly focused on advancing existing policies. The equity market fluctuated weakly, and the bond market shifted towards recovery. On Friday, the VAT policies for treasury bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds were adjusted, and the yield of the 10-year active treasury bond fell below 1.7%. Throughout the week, the yield of the 1-year active treasury bond dropped by 1.75BP to 1.3600%, the yield of the 10-year active treasury bond decreased by 3.75BP to 1.6950%, and the yield of the 30-year treasury bond declined by 4.45BP to 1.9030% [3][6][7]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents (1) Interest Rate Bond Market Review: Limited Increment from the Politburo Meeting, "Old Bond Rush" Driven by VAT Adjustment - **Overall Situation**: In the last week of July, with the central bank's support, funds smoothly crossed the month. The Sino-US talks had no unexpected results, and the Politburo meeting mainly advanced existing policies. The equity market fluctuated weakly, and the bond market recovered. After the bond VAT adjustment policy was announced on Friday, the yield of the 10-year active treasury bond fell below 1.7% [3][6][7]. - **Daily Performance**: - **July 28th**: The central bank net injected 3251 billion yuan. The bond market continued the recovery trend, and the yields of major treasury bonds decreased by 1.5 - 2.5BP [7][10][11]. - **July 29th**: The central bank net injected 2344 billion yuan. Affected by the Sino-US talks and Politburo meeting expectations, the equity market strengthened, and the yields of medium - and long - term treasury bonds over 5 years increased by 3 - 4BP [7][12]. - **July 30th**: The central bank net injected 1585 billion yuan. The Politburo meeting did not mention "anti - involution" and real estate policies much. The equity market rebounded, and the yields of major treasury bonds decreased by 2 - 4BP [7][13]. - **July 31st**: The central bank net withdrew 478 billion yuan in the morning. Due to factors such as the PMI data being lower than expected and the weakening of the equity market, the bond market performed strongly, and the yields of major treasury bonds decreased by 1 - 2BP [7][14]. - **August 1st**: The central bank net withdrew 6633 billion yuan in the morning. The equity market continued to correct. After the bond VAT adjustment policy was announced in the evening, the yield of the 10-year treasury bond first rose and then fell, closing at 1.6950% [7][15][16]. (2) Funding Situation: The Central Bank Conducted Net OMO Injections Near the Month - End, and the Funding Situation was Balanced and Loose The central bank net injected 69 billion yuan this week. The funding sentiment index was generally below 50. The cross - month funding situation was stable and loose. The issuance price of 1-year national and joint - stock bank certificates of deposit dropped to 1.6250%, and the weekly average of DR007 was 1.53% [1][7]. (3) Primary Issuance: Net Financing of Treasury Bonds, Policy Financial Bonds, and Interbank Certificates of Deposit Increased, while Net Financing of Local Government Bonds Decreased No specific data on the increase and decrease of net financing are provided in the text, but it is mentioned that the net financing of treasury bonds, policy financial bonds, and interbank certificates of deposit increased, and the net financing of local government bonds decreased [24]. (4) Benchmark Changes: The Term Spreads of Treasury Bonds and China Development Bank Bonds Both Narrowed - **Yield Curve Changes**: The yields of short - term treasury bonds dropped by 1.01BP, and the yields of short - term China Development Bank bonds decreased by 2.52BP. The yields of long - term treasury bonds declined by 2.65BP, and the yields of long - term China Development Bank bonds fell by 4.64BP [19]. - **Absolute Level of Term Spreads**: The 10Y - 1Y spread of treasury bonds narrowed by 1.64BP to 33.25BP, and the 10Y - 1Y spread of China Development Bank bonds narrowed by 2.12BP to 26.45BP [19].

行业研究 多元金融 2025 年 08 月 03 日 证 券 研 究 报 告 非银金融行业重大事项点评 推荐（维持） 期货：金融业"反内卷"第一枪？ | 华创证券研究所 | | --- | | 证券分析师：徐康 | | 电话：021-20572556 | | 邮箱：xukang@hcyjs.com | | 执业编号：S0360518060005 | 事项： 行业手续费率持续下滑，竞争加剧与同质化经营是主要拖累。一方面，期货公司业务模 式单一，主要依赖经纪业务，行业竞争高度同质化，为争夺客户资源普遍采取降费策略， "价格战"加剧；另一方面，国内期货公司数量众多（共 150 家），但行业集中度低，全 国性期货公司较少，中小公司缺乏差异化服务能力，只能通过低价策略争夺客户，加剧 行业恶性竞争。行业佣金率已从 2017 年的万分之 0.389 降至 2023 年的万分之 0.207（注： 详见图表 2），长期来看，期货公司需通过业务创新或服务升级突破低费率困局。 《规则》旨在推动期货公司从低水平价格战转向以服务质量、专业能力和风险管理为核 心的差异化竞争。《规则》首次明确划定了期货经纪业务不正当竞争行为的边界，包括禁 ...

核心观点：展望 7 月及三季度，经济或进入政策效应释放的观察期，观察什 么？我们认为制造业投资、地产投资、地方基建投资并非下半年的经济核心关 注。居民消费、居民储蓄意愿、企业利润与现金流更为关键。这些决定了终端 物价能否顺利持续回暖、经济内生动力能否持续增强。具体而言： 1）对于消费，在补贴总规模小幅下降（后两批均为 690 亿，前两批均为 810 亿）以及实施生育补贴的综合影响下，关注消费增速能否保持稳定以及消费结 构能否进一步优化（服务、非耐用品消费、限额以下消费增速能否回升）。 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 进入政策效应观察期——7 月经济数据前瞻 主要观点 2）对于居民储蓄意愿。在资本市场企稳向好、房价同比降幅有所收窄的背景 下，关注居民储蓄意愿能否稳中有降。这包括对居民存款规模的观察（与收入、 GDP 相比）以及对居民存款结构的观察（是更多存放活期还是定期）。 3）对于企业利润与现金流。在政府化债与偿还企业欠款、财政支出规模增加、 "反内卷"下大企业对中小企业账期进行调整、居民消费回暖等因素作用下， 关注企业现金流是否能持续改善（企业存款增速、企业活期存款增速）以及企 业盈利能力是否能保持稳 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the communication industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [24]. Core Insights - The communication sector has shown strong performance, with a 2.54% increase in the past week, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 4.29 percentage points [6][7]. - Year-to-date, the communication sector has risen by 19.88%, significantly surpassing the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index's increase of 3.05% [6][7]. - Key companies such as Meta and Microsoft reported better-than-expected earnings, driven by AI investments and advertising revenue [13][16]. Summary by Sections Industry Basic Data - The communication industry consists of 123 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 49,248.97 billion and a circulating market capitalization of 23,006.93 billion [2]. Relative Index Performance - The absolute performance of the communication sector over 1 month, 6 months, and 12 months is 8.7%, 18.6%, and 30.5% respectively, while the relative performance is 4.9%, 11.2%, and 13.5% [3]. Company Performance - Top gainers in the communication sector this week include Xizang Tourism (+46.42%), Chunz中科技 (+32.16%), and Yingweik (+29.64%) [10]. - The top five decliners include Gaohong Shares (-10.55%), Wanma Technology (-8.11%), and San Chuan Wisdom (-8.04%) [10]. Meta's Financial Performance - Meta reported Q2 revenue of $47.5 billion, a 22% year-over-year increase, with net profit of $18.3 billion [13]. - The company expects Q3 revenue to be between $47.5 billion and $50.5 billion, with a median year-over-year growth of approximately 16.5% [13]. Microsoft's Financial Performance - Microsoft achieved Q4 revenue of $76.441 billion, an 18% year-over-year increase, with a net profit of $27.233 billion [16]. - The company anticipates Q1 revenue for FY26 to be between $30.1 billion and $30.4 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 25%-27% [17]. Investment Recommendations - Key recommendations include China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom for operators; and for optical modules, companies like Xinyi Sheng, Tianfu Communication, and Zhongji Xuchuang are highlighted [18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for Swire Properties (01972.HK) [1][6]. Core Views - The report highlights the significant advantages of Swire Properties in prime shopping districts, with retail sales in major shopping centers showing continuous improvement. For instance, retail sales in Shanghai's Xinyi Taikoo Hui, Beijing's Sanlitun Taikoo Li, and Shanghai's Qiantan Taikoo Li increased by 13.5%, 6.8%, and 4% year-on-year, respectively, in the first half of 2025 [1][6]. - The report anticipates that the company's rental income will continue to grow due to its strong operational and leasing capabilities, with projected net profit growth of 449%, 54%, and 37% for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [1][6]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to increase from HKD 14,428 million in 2024 to HKD 18,638 million by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 24.3% [1][7]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to recover from a loss of HKD 766 million in 2024 to HKD 5,671 million by 2027, indicating a significant turnaround [1][7]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from -0.13 HKD in 2024 to 0.99 HKD in 2027, demonstrating a strong recovery trajectory [1][7]. Market Performance - The report notes that Swire Properties' shopping centers in Hong Kong have maintained full occupancy, with retail sales growth improving sequentially. For example, retail sales growth for Taikoo Place and Taikoo City Centre was 1.4% and 2%, respectively, in the first half of 2025 [1][6]. - The overall office market in Hong Kong remains relatively weak due to ongoing downward pressure on rents from new supply, but the company has managed to maintain stable rental rates for its office spaces [1][6]. Valuation - The report estimates a target price of HKD 23.92 per share, with a current price of HKD 20.50, suggesting a potential upside [2][6]. - The dividend discount model (DDM) indicates a current per-share net present value of HKD 23.92, corresponding to a dividend yield of 5.6% for 2025 [1][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the banking sector, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by over 5% in the next 3-6 months [24]. Core Insights - The introduction of new VAT regulations on bond interest income is expected to favor older bonds, as they remain exempt from VAT, thus enhancing their attractiveness and potentially driving up their prices [2][3]. - The banking sector's dividend yield is projected to be around 3.8% in 2025, significantly higher than the 10-year government bond yield of approximately 1.7%, highlighting the advantages of high-dividend assets in a declining interest rate environment [3][8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of strategic allocation within the banking sector, particularly focusing on state-owned banks and select regional banks with strong asset quality and dividend policies [8]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The report notes a decline in major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.94% and the ChiNext Index down by 0.74% during the week of July 28 to August 3, 2025 [7]. - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market was 11,292.71 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 7.96% compared to the previous week [7]. Bond Market Impact - The new VAT regulations apply only to newly issued government bonds, local bonds, and financial bonds, while existing bonds continue to enjoy tax exemptions, making them more favorable for banks [2]. - The proportion of government and policy financial bonds held by major banks exceeds 70%, indicating a strong focus on these assets [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a diversified investment strategy focusing on high-dividend banks, particularly large state-owned banks and stable joint-stock banks like China Merchants Bank and CITIC Bank [8]. - It also highlights the potential for improved return on equity (ROE) in undervalued joint-stock banks, recommending attention to banks like Shanghai Pudong Development Bank [8]. Company Earnings Forecasts - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for key banks, with recommendations for several banks based on their projected performance [9]. - For instance, China Merchants Bank is expected to have an EPS of 5.86 yuan in 2025 with a PE ratio of 7.58, indicating a strong investment case [9].

Quantitative Models and Construction - **Model Name**: Volume Model **Construction Idea**: This model evaluates market trends based on trading volume changes over time [12][72] **Construction Process**: The model analyzes the trading volume of broad-based indices to determine short-term market sentiment. It transitions between "bullish," "neutral," and "bearish" signals based on volume dynamics [12][72] **Evaluation**: The model is effective in capturing short-term market sentiment but may require integration with other indicators for comprehensive analysis [12][72] - **Model Name**: Low Volatility Model **Construction Idea**: This model assesses market conditions by analyzing the volatility of indices [12][72] **Construction Process**: The model calculates the historical volatility of indices and assigns a "neutral" signal when volatility remains within a predefined range [12][72] **Evaluation**: The model provides a stable perspective on market conditions but may lag in highly volatile environments [12][72] - **Model Name**: Intelligent Algorithm Model (CSI 300 and CSI 500) **Construction Idea**: This model uses machine learning algorithms to predict market trends for specific indices [12][72] **Construction Process**: The model applies advanced algorithms to historical price and volume data, generating "bullish" signals for the CSI 300 and CSI 500 indices [12][72] **Evaluation**: The model demonstrates strong predictive capabilities for these indices, particularly in short-term scenarios [12][72] - **Model Name**: Limit-Up/Limit-Down Model **Construction Idea**: This model evaluates market sentiment based on the frequency of limit-up and limit-down events [13][73] **Construction Process**: The model tracks the number of stocks hitting daily price limits and assigns a "neutral" signal when no significant trend is observed [13][73] **Evaluation**: The model is useful for identifying extreme market conditions but may not capture subtle trends [13][73] - **Model Name**: Long-Term Momentum Model **Construction Idea**: This model identifies long-term trends by analyzing momentum indicators [14][74] **Construction Process**: The model calculates momentum metrics for indices like the SSE 50, which recently transitioned to a "bullish" signal [14][74] **Evaluation**: The model is effective for long-term trend analysis but may miss short-term fluctuations [14][74] - **Model Name**: A-Share Comprehensive Weapon V3 Model **Construction Idea**: This composite model integrates multiple signals to provide an overall market outlook [15][75] **Construction Process**: The model aggregates signals from various short-term, medium-term, and long-term models, currently indicating a "bearish" outlook [15][75] **Evaluation**: The model offers a holistic view but may dilute the impact of individual signals [15][75] - **Model Name**: HK Stock Turnover-to-Volatility Model **Construction Idea**: This model evaluates the Hong Kong market by analyzing turnover relative to volatility [16][76] **Construction Process**: The model calculates the ratio of turnover to volatility, currently signaling a "bullish" outlook for the Hang Seng Index [16][76] **Evaluation**: The model is effective for medium-term analysis but may require additional factors for short-term predictions [16][76] Model Backtesting Results - **Volume Model**: Short-term signal transitioned to "neutral" for most broad-based indices [12][72] - **Low Volatility Model**: Maintains a "neutral" signal [12][72] - **Intelligent Algorithm Model**: "Bullish" signals for CSI 300 and CSI 500 indices [12][72] - **Limit-Up/Limit-Down Model**: "Neutral" signal for medium-term analysis [13][73] - **Long-Term Momentum Model**: SSE 50 transitioned to "bullish" [14][74] - **A-Share Comprehensive Weapon V3 Model**: Overall "bearish" signal [15][75] - **HK Stock Turnover-to-Volatility Model**: "Bullish" signal for the Hang Seng Index [16][76]