推荐（维持） 广汇能源引入富德作为战略投资者 行业研究 基础化工 2025 年 05 月 18 日 华创证券研究所 证券研究报 告 新疆周报（20250512-20250518） 证券分析师：杨晖 邮箱：yanghui@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522050001 证券分析师：陈俊新 邮箱：chenjunxin@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525040001 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 489 | 0.06 | | 总市值(亿元) | 41,430.39 | 4.28 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 36,742.13 | 4.79 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | -4.7% | -1.9% | -0.4% | | 相对表现 | -1.1% | 1.2% | -5.0% | -22% -10% 3% 16% 24/05 24/07 24/10 24/12 25/03 25/05 2024-05-17~2025-05 ...

金融工程 证 券 研 究 报 告 市场形态周报（20250512-20250516） 本周指数涨跌不一 本周市场回顾与最新信号 从本周的指数表现来看，本周指数涨跌不一，其中沪深 300 上涨 1.12%，中证 500 下跌 0.1%，中证 1000 下跌 0.23%。 当前，上证 50 的隐含波动率为 12.37%，相对于上周上涨了 0.71%。上证 500 的隐含波动率为 16.25%，相对于上周下跌了 0.4%。中证 1000 的隐含波动率 为 19.61%，相对于上周下跌了 0.06%。沪深 300 的隐含波动率为 13.37%，相 对于上周上涨了 0.49%。 我们统计了最近信号的次数和胜率。2025 年 4 月 30 日到 2025 年 5 月 9 日正 面信号共出现了 3465 次，未来高点平均胜率为 59.95%，负面信号出现 2996 次，未来低点平均胜率为 37.32%。 从宽基择时策略来看，上证 50、恒生可持续发展企业指数出现看多信号，其 余宽基信号为中性。 从行业形态择时策略来看，商贸零售、家电、纺织服装、电力及公用事业、消 费者服务、交通运输、银行出现看多信号，其余行业信号为中性。 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 交通运输行业周报（20250512-20250518） 聚焦中美关税进展：双边贸易迅速升温，备货潮推 推荐（维持） 高运价，推荐集运板块投资机会 一、聚焦中美关税进展：双边贸易迅速升温，备货潮推高运价，推荐集运板块 投资机会 5 月 12 日，中美发表日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明，中美将互相取消此前加征的 91%的反制关税，并暂停实施 24%的对等关税 90 天。 关税政策一经调整，双边贸易迅速升温，美国进口商快速启动原本积压订单的 发货，市场美线货运量激增，据财联社公众号报道：贸易追踪机构 Vizion 公 布的数据显示，在美国和中国互降关税之后，在美国下单的从中国到美国的集 装箱运输预订量飙升近 300%。截至 5 月 5 日的七天平均预订量为 5709 个标 准集装箱，而截至 5 月 14 日的七天平均预订量飙升 277%至 21530 个标准集 装箱。 出货需求大增推高市场运价，根据上海航交所公众号报道，本周北美航线的运 输需求明显复苏，即期订舱价格大幅上涨：5 月 16 日，上海港出口至美西和 美东基本港市场运价（海运及海运附加费）分别为 3091 美元/FEU 和 4069 美 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the aluminum resource sector, indicating a positive outlook due to supply disruptions in bauxite and alumina prices [2][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the Guinean government's revocation of multiple bauxite mining rights may lead to a domestic bauxite shortage, potentially supporting bauxite and alumina prices [6][7]. - The report suggests that the acquisition of overseas potassium fertilizer projects by Salt Lake Co. could enhance its global presence and production capacity [6][7]. - The report expresses optimism for the performance of small metals such as tin, cobalt, and antimony in the medium to long term [6][7]. Industry Overview Aluminum Industry - The report notes that as of May 2025, there are 126 listed companies in the aluminum sector with a total market capitalization of approximately 288.51 billion yuan [3]. - The report indicates that Guinea accounts for 26% of global bauxite reserves and 29% of global production, with China importing 110 million tons of Guinean bauxite in 2024, representing 69.4% of total imports [6][7]. - The report emphasizes the potential for a shift from surplus to shortage in domestic bauxite supply, which could lead to price support for bauxite and alumina [6][7]. New Energy Metals and Minor Metals - The report discusses Salt Lake Co.'s intention to invest around 300 million USD in acquiring shares of Highland Resources, positioning it as a major stakeholder and enhancing its control over key potassium projects [6][7]. - The report recommends focusing on companies with clear growth potential in tin and cobalt, such as Xinyi Silver Tin and Luoyang Molybdenum [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the steel industry, indicating a recovery in both macro expectations and fundamentals, with steel prices expected to rebound [1]. Core Viewpoints - The supply side has started to decline from high levels, while foreign trade expectations have improved, leading to an increase in steel prices. The five major steel product prices have shown weekly increases, with rebar at 3,330 CNY/ton, wire rod at 3,657 CNY/ton, hot-rolled coil at 3,320 CNY/ton, cold-rolled coil at 3,767 CNY/ton, and medium plate at 3,539 CNY/ton [1][2]. - The average daily pig iron output from 247 steel companies has decreased to 2.4477 million tons, indicating a slight reduction in supply. Meanwhile, the total steel inventory has dropped by 454,100 tons to 14.3066 million tons, with social inventory decreasing by 393,700 tons [1][2]. - Demand has shown resilience, with total consumption of the five major steel products rising to 9.1376 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 685,600 tons [1][2]. Summary by Sections Production Data - The average daily pig iron output from 247 steel companies is 2.4477 million tons, down 0.87% week-on-week. The capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces is 91.76%, a decrease of 0.33 percentage points [1][2]. - The electric arc furnace capacity utilization rate has increased to 56.57%, up 1.49 percentage points week-on-week [1][2]. Consumption Data - The apparent consumption of rebar increased by 463,900 tons, while hot-rolled coil consumption rose by 200,000 tons. However, cold-rolled coil consumption saw a slight decline of 5,100 tons [1][2]. Inventory Situation - Total steel inventory stands at 14.3066 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 454,100 tons. Social inventory has decreased to 9.9367 million tons, while steel mill inventory is at 4.3699 million tons [1][2]. Profitability - The average pig iron cost for 114 steel mills is 2,412 CNY/ton, showing a slight decrease of 1 CNY/ton week-on-week. The gross profit per ton for rebar is 103 CNY, for hot-rolled coil is 31 CNY, and for cold-rolled coil is -44 CNY, indicating a recovery in profitability [1][2][3].

证 券 研 究 报 告 【策略周报】 如何看银行与微盘新高——策略周聚焦 如何看待市场收复关税失地 全球视角：多数经济体的股市指数已回到 4/2 关税冲击之前的水平。市场收复 失地的背后主要有 4 点：①关税冲击类似 2020 年疫情，短期事件性冲击之下， 市场往往呈现"一步到位"；②关税谈判推进，贸易摩擦边际缓和，市场对关 税风险的担忧缓释；③抢出口背景下，全球各主要经济体年初出口高增，关税 对基本面的冲击延后；④全球开启降息周期对冲关税风险。 国内视角：在经历了关税冲击的短期回调后，当前国内市场的主要矛盾在于流 动性推动的估值修复 vs 关税冲击基本面的业绩下行压力。短期来看前者占据 主导，流动性可能是市场更重要的影响因子，一方面"国家队"的流动性支持 速度快体量大，4/7 以来规模 ETF 累计净流入达到 1523 亿元。另一方面，货 币宽松节奏加快，降准降息落地，剩余流动性扩张，股市将成为重要承接方向。 相比之下，基于抢出口和消费韧性，关税对于基本面的冲击可能延后，随着中 美谈判的超预期进展，5/16 彭博一致预期将 25Q2 中国 GDP 增速从 4.5%上修 至 4.6%。业绩方面 4 月经历大幅 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 华创交运|低空经济周报（第 39 期） 海外市场观察：美股 eVTOL 标的 Archer 周 推荐（维持） 涨幅 50% 行业研究 交通运输 2025 年 05 月 18 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：吴一凡 电话：021-20572539 邮箱：wuyifan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360516090002 证券分析师：梁婉怡 邮箱：liangwanyi@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523080001 证券分析师：吴晨玥 邮箱：wuchenyue@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523070001 证券分析师：霍鹏浩 邮箱：huopenghao@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524030001 证券分析师：卢浩敏 邮箱：luhaomin@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524090001 联系人：李清影 邮箱：liqingying@hcyjs.com 行业基本数据 | | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | | 122 | 0.02 | | 总市值(亿元) | | 32, ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [1][14]. Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, with revenue at 1.376 billion yuan, down 35.68% year-on-year, and a net profit of 11 million yuan, down 95.49% year-on-year. The Q4 revenue was 363 million yuan, down 36.15% year-on-year, with a net loss of 4 million yuan [1][3]. - For Q1 2025, the company continued to face challenges, achieving revenue of 163 million yuan, down 53.31% year-on-year, and a net loss of 54 million yuan [1][3]. - The integrated stove industry is under pressure due to a downturn in the real estate market, leading to reduced demand for new home renovations. The company is actively exploring the stock housing market and aims to establish over 200 demonstration stores for kitchen renovations by 2025 [7][8]. - Despite the challenges, the company is focusing on diversifying its product offerings, including the development of water-washing products and other kitchen appliances [7][8]. Financial Summary - The company's total revenue for 2024 is projected at 1.376 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of -35.7%. The net profit is expected to be 11 million yuan, with a dramatic decline of -95.5% [3][8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is forecasted to be 0.23 yuan, with subsequent years showing gradual improvement: 0.27 yuan in 2026 and 0.34 yuan in 2027 [3][8]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 475 in 2024 to 38 in 2027, indicating a potential recovery in profitability [3][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company with a target price of 67.32 CNY, based on expected growth in the energy storage business and new business developments [5][9]. Core Insights - The company's energy storage business is gradually ramping up, and the development of new business areas is promising. The traditional lithium battery business is under pressure due to supply-demand mismatches and increased competition, while the energy system business is expected to improve profitability as it scales [5][9]. - The company achieved a total revenue of 1.699 billion CNY in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 113.7%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company was only 31 million CNY, down 91% year-on-year [4][9]. - The report highlights the company's multi-track layout, including expansion into the semiconductor and robotics industries, which is expected to inject new growth momentum [9]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: Projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.43 billion CNY, 3.02 billion CNY, and 3.63 billion CNY, respectively, with growth rates of 43%, 24.3%, and 20.3% [4][10]. - **Net Profit Forecast**: Expected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 161 million CNY, 247 million CNY, and 321 million CNY, with growth rates of 425.9%, 52.8%, and 30.3% [4][10]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: The EPS is projected to increase from 0.21 CNY in 2024 to 2.23 CNY in 2027 [4][10]. - **Valuation Ratios**: The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 270 in 2024 to 26 in 2027, indicating improving valuation as earnings grow [4][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 21.60 yuan [2][9]. Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 performance slightly exceeded expectations, with revenue of 10.771 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.92% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 23.69%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 2.437 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 71.50% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 35.31% [2][9]. - The report highlights the stabilization of coal prices and the downward trend in oil prices, indicating a potential clearing of risks. The company is expected to benefit from its upstream coal chemical projects, particularly in Xinjiang, which may significantly enhance profitability once operational [2][9]. Financial Summary - The company is projected to achieve total revenue of 32.983 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 13.2%. By 2025, revenue is expected to rise to 46.268 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 40.3% [4][10]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 6.338 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 12.2%, and is expected to reach 13.177 billion yuan in 2025, showing a significant growth rate of 107.9% [4][10]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to increase from 0.86 yuan in 2024 to 1.80 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 19 in 2024 and 9 in 2025 [4][10]. Operational Insights - In Q1 2025, the company reported sales volumes of polyethylene, polypropylene, and EVA at 51460, 49150, and 4710 tons respectively, with significant quarter-on-quarter increases [2][9]. - The report notes that the average procurement price of raw coal was approximately 494 yuan per ton in Q1, down by 91 yuan from the previous quarter, indicating a favorable cost environment for production [2][9]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the company's Xinjiang coal chemical projects will accelerate in construction due to increasing energy security concerns, with potential net profit contributions of approximately 12 billion yuan once operational [2][9]. - The company is expected to enter an upward profit cycle as oil price risks clear, with a projected net profit of 13.177 billion yuan in 2025, corresponding to a P/E ratio of 9 [2][9].