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金蝶国际(00268.HK):云化“蝶变”之后,再看企业级 Agent
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-05-21 12:27
Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company, setting a target price of HKD 16.98 per share based on an 8x PS valuation for 2025 [3]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading SaaS provider in the domestic enterprise service sector, with a significant shift towards cloud services, which are expected to account for 81.6% of revenue by 2024 [8][10]. - The transition to cloud services has enhanced revenue growth resilience, operational efficiency, and cash flow health, with the operating profit margin (OPM) for cloud services turning positive in 2023 and projected to reach 6% in 2024 [42]. - The company has developed three core product solutions targeting large, medium, and small enterprises, which are expected to drive substantial revenue growth in the coming years [8][10]. Summary by Sections Investment Logic - The company is forecasted to achieve revenues of RMB 70.1 billion, RMB 80.5 billion, and RMB 93.8 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits turning positive by 2025 [3]. Financial Forecasts, Valuation, and Rating - The projected revenue growth rates for the company from 2023 to 2027 are 16.71%, 10.15%, 11.99%, 14.96%, and 16.42% respectively, with net profit growth rates showing significant improvement, particularly in 2025 with a forecasted growth of 156.06% [7]. - The company’s diluted earnings per share are expected to improve from -0.06 in 2023 to 0.30 in 2027 [7]. Company Overview - The company has transitioned from traditional ERP software to a cloud-native EBC model, enhancing its service offerings and operational capabilities [14][19]. - The company’s cloud transformation has been marked by a significant increase in annual recurring revenue (ARR), which is projected to grow by 20% to RMB 34.3 billion in 2024 [31]. Growth Drivers - The company’s core products, including the "Cangyun" and "Xinghan" solutions, have achieved high net dollar retention rates of 108% and 94% respectively, indicating strong customer loyalty and demand [8][10]. - The demand for digital transformation among small and medium enterprises is expected to create a market space of approximately RMB 70 billion for the company’s services [10]. AI and SaaS Integration - The company has integrated AI capabilities into its SaaS offerings, enhancing service delivery and operational efficiency, with the launch of the "Jindie Cloud Cangyun GPT" platform [8][10].
哔哩哔哩-W:游戏保持强劲增长,实现持续盈利-20250521
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-05-21 10:23
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [10][8]. Core Insights - The company has entered a profitable phase, with significant improvements in user value and operational efficiency, particularly in its gaming and advertising segments [4][5]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 7 billion HKD, representing a year-on-year growth of 24%, and a Non-GAAP net profit of 360 million HKD, marking a turnaround to profitability [4][5]. - The company is experiencing record-high monthly active users (36.8 million) and daily usage time (108 minutes), indicating strong user engagement and growth [5]. Financial Performance - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 30.688 billion HKD, 33.499 billion HKD, and 36.145 billion HKD respectively, with corresponding Non-GAAP net profits of 2.147 billion HKD, 3.140 billion HKD, and 3.972 billion HKD [3][8]. - The company has shown a consistent increase in gross margin, reaching 36.3% in Q1 2025, with high-margin businesses like gaming and advertising contributing significantly to revenue [5][6]. - The average revenue per user is expected to grow, supported by a stable base of premium members and a thriving ecosystem for content creators [7]. Business Segments - The gaming segment, particularly driven by the title "Three Kingdoms: Strategy", has shown a remarkable revenue increase of 76% year-on-year, contributing 17.3 billion HKD in Q1 2025 [6]. - Advertising revenue reached 2 billion HKD in Q1 2025, up 20% year-on-year, largely due to the growth of performance-based advertising driven by AI capabilities [6]. - Value-added services, including premium memberships, generated 2.81 billion HKD in Q1 2025, with a stable membership base of 23.5 million [7].
哔哩哔哩-W(09626):游戏保持强劲增长,实现持续盈利
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-05-21 08:49
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [10][8]. Core Views - The company is entering a profitable era with significant user value being released, as evidenced by a strong growth trajectory in revenue and profitability [4][5]. - The gaming segment continues to show robust growth, with a notable increase in revenue driven by popular titles [6][8]. - The advertising revenue is experiencing rapid growth, supported by AI-driven strategies that enhance operational efficiency [6][8]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from HKD 22.53 billion in 2023 to HKD 30.69 billion in 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 14.37% [3][8]. - Non-GAAP net profit is expected to turn positive in 2025, reaching HKD 2.15 billion, with a significant improvement in profitability metrics [3][8]. - The company achieved a Non-GAAP net profit of HKD 360 million in Q1 2025, marking a turnaround from previous losses [4][5]. User Engagement - Monthly active users reached a record high of 368 million in Q1 2025, with an average daily usage time of 108 minutes [5][8]. - The number of paying users has also increased, with 32 million monthly paying users reported [5][8]. Revenue Breakdown - In Q1 2025, revenue from the gaming segment was HKD 1.73 billion, a year-on-year increase of 76%, contributing significantly to overall revenue growth [6][8]. - Advertising revenue reached HKD 2 billion in Q1 2025, up 20% year-on-year, driven by strong performance in effective advertising [6][8]. - Value-added services generated HKD 2.81 billion in Q1 2025, with a stable base of premium members [7][8].
哔哩哔哩-W港股公司点评:游戏保持强劲增长,实现持续盈利
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-05-21 06:43
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [10][8]. Core Insights - The company has entered a profitable era with significant user value being released, as evidenced by a strong growth trajectory in revenue and profitability [4][5]. - The gaming segment continues to show robust growth, with a notable increase in revenue driven by popular titles [6][8]. - The advertising revenue is experiencing rapid growth, supported by AI-driven strategies that enhance operational efficiency [6][8]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2023, the company reported revenue of 22,528 million HKD, with a projected increase to 30,688 million HKD by 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 19.10% [3]. - Non-GAAP net profit is expected to turn positive in 2025, reaching 2,147 million HKD, with a significant improvement from a loss of 3,414 million HKD in 2023 [3][8]. - The gross margin has been on an upward trend, reaching 36.3% in Q1 2025, with high-margin businesses like gaming and advertising contributing to this improvement [5][8]. User Engagement and Growth - Monthly active users reached a historical high of 368 million in Q1 2025, with an average daily usage time of 108 minutes [5]. - The number of paying users has also increased, with 32 million monthly paying users reported [5][7]. Revenue Breakdown - In Q1 2025, the company generated 20 billion HKD from advertising, a 20% year-on-year increase, accounting for 29% of total revenue [6]. - The gaming segment contributed 17.3 billion HKD in revenue, marking a 76% increase year-on-year, driven by the success of titles like "Three Kingdoms: Strategy" [6][8]. - Value-added services generated 28.1 billion HKD in Q1 2025, with a stable membership base of 23.5 million [7]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 30,688 million HKD, 33,499 million HKD, and 36,145 million HKD respectively, with corresponding Non-GAAP net profits of 2,147 million HKD, 3,140 million HKD, and 3,972 million HKD [3][8]. - The company is expected to achieve a P/E ratio of 25.66 in 2025, decreasing to 13.87 by 2027, indicating improving valuation metrics [3][8].
天弘科技:以太网交换机、ASIC服务器双轮驱动-20250521
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-05-21 01:23
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of $133.02 based on a 20X PE for 2026 [4]. Core Views - The company is a leading manufacturer of ASIC servers and Ethernet switches, benefiting from the growth in AI inference demand, particularly from major cloud service providers in North America [2][3]. - The company is expected to recover from a short-term decline in server revenue due to Google's TPU product transition, with anticipated growth resuming in the second half of 2025 [2]. - The company is actively expanding its customer base for ASIC servers, having become a supplier for Meta and secured a project with a leading commercial AI company [2][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Deep Layout in ASIC Servers and Ethernet Switches - The importance of inference computing power is increasing, and the ASIC industry chain is expected to benefit from this trend [14]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the volume growth of ASIC servers and the expansion of its customer base, particularly with Google and Meta [27][31]. - The Ethernet switch business is poised to grow due to the trend of AI Ethernet networking, with increased demand for high-speed switches [32]. 2. Transition from EMS to ODM - The company is shifting from an EMS model to an ODM model, which is expected to enhance customer binding and improve profitability [47]. - The revenue from the hardware platform solutions (ODM) is projected to grow significantly, contributing to overall revenue growth [50][52]. - The company's gross margin and operating profit margin have been steadily increasing due to the growth of its ODM business [52]. 3. ASIC Industry and Company Alpha - The company is well-positioned in the ASIC server and Ethernet ODM switch market, benefiting from industry trends and new customer acquisitions [3][4]. - The company’s net profit is forecasted to grow significantly over the next few years, with expected profits of $593 million, $765 million, and $871 million for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][8]. - The company is expected to gain market share as it expands its customer base and increases the complexity of its products [31]. 4. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from $7.96 billion in 2023 to $15.89 billion in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 14.1% [8]. - The EBITDA is expected to increase from $467 million in 2023 to $1.296 billion in 2027, reflecting strong operational performance [8].
票息资产热度图谱:2.3%以上的下沉路径
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-05-20 14:07
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report As of May 19, 2025, private enterprise industrial bonds in the outstanding credit bonds had higher overall valuation yields and spreads compared to other varieties. Compared with the previous week, the yields of non - financial and non - real estate industrial bonds generally declined, with the 1 - 2 year private enterprise public and state - owned enterprise private non - perpetual bonds declining by 9bp and 5.9bp respectively, and the yields of most other varieties decreasing within 5bp. The yields of real estate bonds also mainly declined, especially the state - owned enterprise public non - perpetual bonds within 1 year and 1 - 2 years, which both saw a reduction of over 10bp. Among financial bonds, the varieties with high valuation yields and spreads were leasing company bonds and urban and rural commercial bank capital supplementary tools. More than half of the financial bond yields declined compared to the previous week. Specifically, leasing bonds were the better - performing bonds among financial bonds, with the yields of 2 - 3 year private perpetual and non - perpetual bonds declining by 9.1bp and 4.9bp respectively. The performance of commercial financial bonds varied by term, with the yields of varieties within 1 year all decreasing, while most varieties over 1 year had varying degrees of adjustment, among which the 1 - 2 year large - bank commercial financial bonds had the largest adjustment range. Bank sub - bonds were slightly weak, with the yields of 3 - 5 year perpetual bonds consistently declining, especially the urban and rural commercial bank varieties, which declined by more than 3.5bp, and the 2 - year - within national and joint - stock bank Tier 2 perpetual bonds generally rebounded. In addition, the 1 - 2 year and 2 - 3 year private non - perpetual varieties of securities company bonds received some attention [3][4][8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overall Outstanding Credit Bonds - As of May 19, 2025, private enterprise industrial bonds had higher overall valuation yields and spreads. Compared with the previous week, non - financial and non - real estate industrial bond yields generally declined, and real estate bond yields also mainly declined. Financial bond yields had more than half declining, with leasing bonds performing well, commercial financial bonds showing term - based differentiation, bank sub - bonds being slightly weak, and some securities company bond varieties attracting attention [3][4][8]. 3.2 Urban Investment Bonds 3.2.1 Public Urban Investment Bonds - The weighted average valuation yields of Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces were below 2.5%. Bonds with yields over 4.5% were in prefecture - level and district - county - level areas of Guizhou. Yunnan, Gansu and other regions also had high spreads. Compared with the previous week, the yields basically declined, with the 1 - 2 year varieties having an average decline of 5.8bp. The varieties with larger yield declines included 1 - 2 year non - perpetual bonds of Yunnan prefecture - level cities, 2 - 3 year non - perpetual bonds of Yunnan prefecture - level cities, 1 - 2 year non - perpetual bonds of Yunnan district - counties, and non - perpetual bonds of Gansu prefecture - level cities within 1 year [2][14]. 3.2.2 Private Urban Investment Bonds - The weighted average valuation yields of coastal provinces such as Shanghai, Zhejiang, Guangdong, and Fujian were below 3%. Varieties with yields higher than 4% were in prefecture - level and district - county - level areas of Guizhou and Yunnan, and prefecture - level areas of Shaanxi. Gansu, Liaoning, Heilongjiang and other regions also had high spreads. Compared with the previous week, the yields mainly declined. The varieties with larger yield declines included 2 - 3 year perpetual bonds of Shaanxi district - counties, 2 - 3 year non - perpetual bonds of Yunnan prefecture - level cities, non - perpetual bonds of Shanxi district - counties within 1 year, and 1 - 2 year non - perpetual urban investment bonds of Gansu prefecture - level cities [2]. 3.3 Industrial Bonds - Private enterprise industrial bonds had higher valuation yields and spreads. Non - financial and non - real estate industrial bond yields generally declined, with 1 - 2 year private enterprise public and state - owned enterprise private non - perpetual bonds declining by 9bp and 5.9bp respectively, and most other varieties having yield declines within 5bp. Real estate bond yields also mainly declined, especially state - owned enterprise public non - perpetual bonds within 1 year and 1 - 2 years, which had a reduction of over 10bp [3][8]. 3.4 Financial Bonds - Leasing company bonds and urban and rural commercial bank capital supplementary tools had high valuation yields and spreads. More than half of the financial bond yields declined. Leasing bonds performed well, with 2 - 3 year private perpetual and non - perpetual bonds having yield declines of 9.1bp and 4.9bp respectively. Commercial financial bonds showed term - based differentiation, bank sub - bonds were slightly weak, and some securities company bond varieties received attention [4][8].
量化观市:中美关税阶段性缓和,市场风险偏好有望回升
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-05-20 03:18
Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Micro-Cap Timing Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model uses mid-term risk warning indicators to monitor market timing for micro-cap stocks, focusing on both market sentiment and fundamental indicators[29] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Two key indicators are used: - **10-Year Treasury Yield YoY**: Measures the year-over-year change in 10-year treasury yields - **Volatility Crowding YoY**: Reflects market trading sentiment through changes in volatility 2. Risk thresholds are set for these indicators: - 10-Year Treasury Yield YoY threshold: 0.3 - Volatility Crowding YoY threshold: 0 3. If either indicator exceeds its threshold, a risk warning signal is triggered. Conversely, if both indicators fall below their thresholds, the risk warning is lifted[29][30][36] - **Model Evaluation**: The model currently does not trigger any risk warnings, suggesting a stable environment for holding micro-cap stocks[29] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Micro-Cap Timing Model - **10-Year Treasury Yield YoY**: -28.69% (below the risk threshold of 0.3)[30] - **Volatility Crowding YoY**: -50.09% (below the risk threshold of 0)[30] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Value Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Captures undervaluation by comparing financial metrics to market prices[51] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. **Key Metrics**: - **SP_TTM**: Revenue over the past 12 months divided by the latest market capitalization - **EP_FY0**: Current annual report's expected net profit divided by the latest market capitalization - **Sales2EV**: Revenue over the past 12 months divided by enterprise value 2. These metrics are aggregated to form the value factor, with higher values indicating greater undervaluation[51] 2. Factor Name: Size Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the impact of company size on stock performance[51] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. **Key Metrics**: - **LN_MktCap**: Natural logarithm of free-float market capitalization - **BP_LR**: Book value per share divided by the latest market price - **EP_FTTM**: Forward 12-month expected earnings divided by the latest market price 2. These metrics are combined to represent the size factor, with smaller companies typically expected to outperform[51] 3. Factor Name: Volatility Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Captures the impact of price and return volatility on stock performance[51] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. **Key Metrics**: - **IV_CAPM**: Residual volatility from the CAPM model - **IV_FF**: Residual volatility from the Fama-French three-factor model - **Price_Chg20D**: 20-day price change 2. These metrics are aggregated to form the volatility factor, with lower volatility generally preferred[51] 4. Factor Name: Reversal Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Exploits the tendency of stocks to revert to their mean after extreme movements[51] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. **Key Metrics**: - **Price_Chg40D**: 40-day price change - **Price_Chg60D**: 60-day price change - **Price_Chg120D**: 120-day price change 2. These metrics are aggregated to form the reversal factor, with negative values indicating stronger reversal potential[51] 5. Factor Name: Convertible Bond Valuation Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Evaluates convertible bonds based on their valuation and relationship with underlying stocks[44] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. **Key Metrics**: - **Parity Premium**: Difference between the convertible bond price and its parity value - **Underlying Stock Factors**: Includes growth, quality, and valuation metrics of the underlying stock 2. These metrics are combined to assess the attractiveness of convertible bonds[44][49] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Value Factor - **IC Mean**: Positive across multiple stock pools, with notable performance in the financial and real estate sectors[39][40] - **Multi-Long-Short Returns**: Positive returns observed in the past week[39][42] 2. Size Factor - **IC Mean**: Strong performance in the CSI 300 stock pool[39][41] - **Multi-Long-Short Returns**: Expected to improve as market risk appetite increases[40] 3. Volatility Factor - **IC Mean**: Stable positive returns in the A-share stock pool[39][42] - **Multi-Long-Short Returns**: Demonstrated consistent performance in recent weeks[39][42] 4. Reversal Factor - **IC Mean**: Outperformed in the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 stock pools[39][41] - **Multi-Long-Short Returns**: Positive returns observed in the past week[39][42] 5. Convertible Bond Valuation Factor - **Multi-Long-Short Returns**: Positive returns for value and valuation factors in the convertible bond market[44][48]
申能股份:公司深度研究上海火电龙头,优质资产赋能高分红-20250520
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-05-20 00:35
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 10.03 RMB based on a 12x PE for 2025 [4]. Core Insights - The company is positioned to benefit from a downward trend in coal prices, which enhances the profit elasticity of its thermal power assets due to its regional advantages in Shanghai's electricity supply and demand dynamics [2][3]. - The company plans to add 8 to 10 million kilowatts of new energy capacity during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, with a focus on offshore wind projects, which are crucial for achieving carbon neutrality in Shanghai [3]. - The company has a stable revenue stream from its natural gas pipeline and gas power assets, supported by a favorable pricing mechanism [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company is a comprehensive energy platform controlled by the Shanghai State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, with a high dividend payout ratio of nearly 50% since its listing [9][18]. 2. Power Business: Profit Elasticity and Growth in New Energy 2.1 Thermal Power: Profit Elasticity Enhanced by Coal Price Downturn - The regional supply-demand balance in Shanghai is expected to remain tight until 2026, supporting the company's thermal power profitability [2]. - The company has maintained high coal machine utilization hours, projected to remain above 4,800 hours in the next two years [2]. - The competitive landscape in Shanghai is characterized by high industry concentration, with the company and its major competitors holding over 80% of the market share [2]. 2.2 New Energy: Active Layout for Energy Transition - The company aims to accelerate the development of new energy projects, with 3.95 million kilowatts of new energy projects expected to be operational between 2025 and 2026 [3]. - Offshore wind energy is identified as a key pathway for achieving carbon neutrality in Shanghai, with significant future development potential [3]. 3. Stability: Stable Profitability from Pricing Mechanisms - The company operates the only high-pressure natural gas pipeline system in Shanghai, ensuring stable profitability from gas supply [3]. - The company has diversified its investments into nuclear power and pumped storage, contributing approximately 700 million RMB in annual investment income [3]. 4. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 29.85 billion RMB in 2025, with a net profit of 4.09 billion RMB, corresponding to an EPS of 0.84 RMB [4]. - The report emphasizes the company's strong dividend capability and willingness, with a current dividend yield of approximately 5.0%, ranking among the top in the thermal power industry [3][31].
机械行业研究:可控核聚变专题:“十五五”资本开支加速,“人造太阳”渐行渐近
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-05-20 00:35
Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the controllable nuclear fusion industry, particularly during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, anticipating a significant increase in capital expenditure and related equipment orders [4]. Core Insights - Controllable nuclear fusion is highlighted as a preferred future energy source due to its high energy density, easy-to-obtain raw materials, flexible layout, and environmental safety [1][13]. - The Q value, a critical indicator for the commercialization of nuclear fusion, has been consistently improving, surpassing 1, indicating energy balance [1][16]. - The industry is experiencing rapid international advancements, with a notable increase in financing, exceeding $7.1 billion in 2024, up by $900 million from 2023 [1][31]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Controllable Nuclear Fusion - Nuclear fusion offers significant advantages over other energy sources, including a million-fold increase in energy density compared to current systems [13]. - The Q value is essential for assessing the feasibility of nuclear fusion, with recent advancements showing a positive trend in its growth [16][20]. - Magnetic confinement is expected to become the mainstream approach for controllable nuclear fusion, currently holding a 62% market share [22]. Section 2: Technological Breakthroughs and Accelerated Bidding - The industry is currently in the experimental reactor construction phase, primarily led by the Chinese Academy of Sciences and China Nuclear Group [36]. - Significant breakthroughs in high-temperature superconductors are expected to accelerate the commercialization of nuclear fusion [45]. - The BEST project is advancing rapidly, with expectations to achieve significant milestones by 2027 [51][57]. Section 3: Core Value in the Midstream Equipment - The nuclear fusion industry chain consists of upstream materials, midstream equipment, and downstream nuclear applications, with midstream equipment currently seeing increased capital expenditure [62]. - The magnetic component represents the highest value segment within the nuclear fusion industry chain, accounting for 28% of the total costs in projects like ITER [63][66]. Section 4: Investment Recommendations - Companies such as Hezhong Intelligent are expected to benefit from the capital expenditure associated with the BEST project, with projected revenue growth [69]. - Lianchuang Optoelectronics is positioned as a key player in high-temperature superconductors, with a strong market advantage [76]. - Guoguang Electric is recognized as a core supplier of critical components like the first wall and divertor in nuclear fusion applications [83].
消费基金阶段收益拆解及基金经理精选:刚需韧性+新消费破局,消费基金的Alpha掘金路径
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-05-19 09:06
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The consumer market has shown significant structural differentiation and opportunities. New consumption sectors such as trendy toys, pet economy, and AI+ have emerged, while traditional sectors like liquor have faced challenges due to economic pressure [21]. - Different stages of the consumer market are characterized by distinct investment styles. For example, in the core - asset - dominated stage, low - turnover and growth - style consumer funds outperformed; in the market - oscillation stage, value - style funds with flexible and diversified holdings had an edge [36][57]. - The performance of consumer funds is closely related to macro - economic conditions, policy support, and market sentiment. In weak market environments, dividend - value style funds with strong stock - picking abilities tend to perform better [70]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Consumption Market Historical Review - **Core Asset Dominated (20190101 - 20210210)**: The market trended upward. The relaxation of domestic policies, inflow of foreign capital, and economic recovery promoted investment opportunities in the consumer sector, especially in the liquor industry. The CSI Liquor Index rose over 350% [13]. - **Repeated Oscillation (20210218 - 20230116)**: Factors such as the pandemic, macro - economic pressure, and geopolitical issues led to market oscillations. There were structural rotation opportunities in high - end consumption, pig farming, and other sectors [13]. - **Oscillation Decline (20230117 - 20240202)**: The market first rose and then declined. The weak economic recovery and low consumer confidence led to a decline in the consumer industry, especially in the real - estate post - cycle and food and beverage industries. The CSI Liquor Index fell nearly 38% [21]. - **New Consumption Dominated (20240205 - 20250415)**: The consumer market showed structural differentiation. New consumption sectors such as trendy toys, pet economy, and AI+ performed well, while the liquor industry still faced pressure. The CSI Liquor Index fell 3.8%, and the Xinhua SHS Emerging Consumption Index rose 53% [21]. 3.2 Consumption Fund Holdings - **Stock - holding Proportion**: The proportion of liquor holdings in consumer funds reached a peak in 2023 (about 41%) and then declined to about 30% in 2024. The proportion of new - consumption holdings increased from about 10% in 2019 to 25.7% at the end of 2024 [29]. - **Stock - holding Contribution**: Liquor has been the main source of continuous contribution to consumer funds since 2019. New - consumption stocks have made significant contributions since 2024, with companies like Pop Mart leading the way [29]. - **HK Stock Holdings**: Consumer funds' holdings of HK stocks are mainly concentrated in the new - consumption field. The proportion of HK - stock holdings increased in 2020 and 2024, mainly due to the layout of new consumption [33]. 3.3 Fund Return Sources and Portraits - **Stage One (20190101 - 20210210)**: High - growth consumer funds with low turnover and high retention of heavy - position stocks outperformed. The expansion of liquor channels and the upgrade of price ranges drove the growth of the consumer market [36]. - **Stage Two (20210218 - 20230116)**: Funds with a balanced and slightly value - oriented style and flexible and diversified holdings performed better. The moderate increase in CPI and the decline in PPI benefited the consumer industry, and value - type consumer stocks showed high defensive properties [57]. - **Stage Three (20230117 - 20240202)**: Funds with a deep - value style and strong alpha capabilities outperformed. In a weak market environment, low - volatility, high - dividend stocks became a safe haven for funds [70]. - **Stage Four (20240205 - 20250411)**: The elasticity and stock - picking ability of consumer funds in the new - consumption field became the key to returns. Traditional companies' second - growth curves and the growth of new consumption drove the performance of consumer funds [84]. 3.4 Consumption ETF Funds - **A股 - related ETFs**: There are ETF funds corresponding to 5 A - share consumer comprehensive indices, with the largest number (3) and total scale (27 billion yuan) corresponding to the CSI Consumption 50 Index [95]. - **港股 - related ETFs**: There are ETF funds corresponding to 5 HK - stock consumer comprehensive indices, with the largest number (4) corresponding to the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumption Index and the largest total scale (33.5 billion yuan) corresponding to the Hang Seng Consumption Index [95].