Group 1: Dollar Performance and Market Sentiment - In the first half of 2025, the US dollar index fell by 10.7%, marking its worst performance since 1973[5] - In Q1, the "US vs Non-US" interest rate differential explained 91% of dollar fluctuations, but this dropped to 33% in Q2, with "de-dollarization" becoming the dominant market narrative[2] - A Bank of America survey in June indicated that market consensus on a weak dollar reached a 20-year high[5] Group 2: Hedging and Investment Behavior - Foreign investors are increasingly using foreign exchange derivatives to hedge risks rather than divesting from dollar-denominated assets[6] - From April onwards, there was a significant increase in short positions in dollar futures, with net positions shifting from long to short[6] - The demand for hedging has surged, as evidenced by the spike in EUR/USD risk reversal option prices, indicating heightened hedging needs[11] Group 3: Potential Reversal Opportunities for the Dollar - Four potential reversal opportunities for the weak dollar include: 1. Diminished market response to equivalent tariffs, potentially reducing dollar hedging demand[3] 2. The dollar index nearing long-term support levels reflecting US productivity advantages[3] 3. Changes in Trump's policies may reduce the motivation for new tariffs, potentially supporting the dollar[3] 4. Market interpretations of interest rate cuts could stimulate economic activity and support the dollar[3] Group 4: Risks and Considerations - Risks include limited indicators for observing hedging demand in the dollar forex market and potential non-linear declines in US fundamentals[4] - The uncertainty surrounding Trump's continued tariff pressures and interference with Federal Reserve independence poses additional risks[4]

Macro Liquidity - The US dollar index rebounded last week, and the degree of "inversion" in the China-US interest rate spread deepened. The nominal and real yields of 10Y US Treasuries both increased, indicating a rise in inflation expectations [1][15] - Offshore dollar liquidity has marginally eased, while the domestic interbank funding situation remains overall balanced and slightly loose, with a slight narrowing of the yield spread between 10Y and 1Y [1][20] Market Trading Activity - Overall market trading activity has increased, with most industry trading heat above the 80th percentile. Major index volatility has also risen, although most industry volatilities remain below the 40th historical percentile [1][27] - The trading heat in sectors such as light industry, textiles, retail, computing, construction materials, and financial real estate is notably high [1][30] Institutional Research - High research activity is observed in sectors such as electronics, pharmaceuticals, home appliances, computing, retail, and non-ferrous metals, with real estate, home appliances, oil and petrochemicals, and telecommunications also seeing a rise in research activity [2] Analyst Forecasts - Analysts have raised net profit forecasts for the entire A-share market for 2025/2026. Sectors such as telecommunications, chemicals, non-ferrous metals, electric new energy, electronics, non-bank financials, construction, media, food and beverage, and home appliances have all seen upward adjustments in their profit forecasts [3][4] - The net profit forecasts for the CSI 500, ChiNext Index, and CSI 300 have been raised, while the forecast for the SSE 50 has been adjusted both up and down [3][4] - In terms of investment style, mid-cap/small-cap growth and mid-cap value sectors have seen upward adjustments in their profit forecasts for 2025/2026, while large-cap growth and large/mid/small-cap value sectors have seen downward adjustments [3][4] Northbound Trading Activity - Northbound trading activity has rebounded, with overall net purchases of A-shares. The average daily trading volume and proportion of northbound trading have both increased significantly [5][6] - Based on the top 10 active stocks, the trading volume ratio for northbound trading in sectors such as banking, telecommunications, electric utilities, computing, electric new energy, and non-ferrous metals has risen, while it has fallen in sectors like home appliances, automobiles, electronics, non-bank financials, pharmaceuticals, and agriculture [5][6] Margin Financing Activity - Margin financing activity has increased, with net purchases amounting to 22.546 billion yuan last week. The main net purchases were in non-ferrous metals, computing, non-bank financials, electric new energy, and electronics, while net sales were seen in food and beverage, transportation, oil and petrochemicals, and real estate [4][6] - The financing purchase ratio has increased in sectors such as coal, textiles, agriculture, military, and transportation [4][6] Fund Activity - Active equity funds have increased their positions, particularly in sectors like automobiles, TMT, home appliances, electric new energy, pharmaceuticals, and non-ferrous metals, while reducing positions in oil and petrochemicals, electric utilities, real estate, coal, and construction [6][9] - ETFs have seen overall net subscriptions, primarily driven by individual ETFs, with significant net purchases in sectors like electronics, military, banking, coal, steel, and machinery, while net sales were observed in non-bank financials, pharmaceuticals, electric new energy, telecommunications, media, and computing [6][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [6][14]. Core Insights - The company anticipates a net loss attributable to shareholders of 875 million to 975 million yuan for the first half of 2025, with a significant reduction in losses compared to the previous year [3]. - Revenue for the first half of 2025 is projected to be between 3.56 billion and 3.64 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 4.3% to 6.4%, but showing growth in the second quarter [3][4]. - The company is implementing an "AI-first" strategy, focusing on upgrading its product matrix and validating internal scenarios to drive AI commercialization [5]. Financial Performance Summary - The company expects revenues of 10.05 billion, 11.15 billion, and 12.49 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with growth rates of 9.80%, 11.00%, and 12.00% [6][11]. - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders is -700 million yuan for 2025, with a turnaround to a profit of 50 million yuan in 2026 and 500 million yuan in 2027 [6][11]. - The operating cash flow is expected to improve significantly, with a net inflow of approximately 3.2 billion yuan in the second quarter of 2025 [3].

Report Summary 1. Core View - From July 7th to July 11th, 2025, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rose by 0.82%. The overall estimated stock position of active equity and partial - equity hybrid funds increased by 0.24% to 87.45%. The median estimated duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds rose by 0.26 to 3.31 years, and that of short - term pure bond funds rose by 0.30 to 1.16 years. The median duration of credit bond funds rose by 0.21 to 2.89 years, and that of interest - rate bond funds rose by 0.28 to 4.87 years [4]. 2. Summary by Directory 2.1 Fund Stock Position Calculation - The overall estimated stock position of active equity and partial - equity hybrid funds has shown a volatile trend recently. This week, it increased by 0.24% to 87.45%, 0.77% lower than the quarterly report. Active equity funds' position rose by 0.31% to 89.55%, and partial - equity hybrid funds' position rose by 0.23% to 86.96% [7]. - The overall increase or decrease in positions of active equity and partial - equity hybrid funds this week was mostly concentrated in [0%, 1%] (766 funds), followed by [-1%, 0%] (171 funds). Funds with sizes below 20 billion, between 20 - 50 billion, and 50 - 80 billion slightly increased their positions, while other - sized funds slightly reduced their positions [11]. - In terms of fund holding styles, growth stocks accounted for a higher proportion in fund holdings. This week, value stocks were slightly reduced, and growth stocks were slightly increased. The proportion of small - cap stocks in fund holdings was relatively high. This week, large - cap and mid - cap stocks were slightly increased, and small - cap stocks were slightly reduced [15]. - The top 5 industries held by active equity and partial - equity hybrid funds this week were electronics (13.65%), power equipment (8.70%), pharmaceutical biology (7.16%), automobiles (6.54%), and machinery (5.37%). The top 3 industries with increased positions were communication (+0.36%), building materials (+0.20%), and non - ferrous metals (+0.12%); the top 3 industries with reduced positions were comprehensive (-0.21%), national defense and military industry (-0.19%), and pharmaceutical biology (-0.15%) [18]. 2.2 Bond Fund Duration Calculation - This week, the yield to maturity of China Bond's 10 - year China Development Bank bonds rose by 3bps. The median estimated duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds rose by 0.26 to 3.31 years, at the 99.40% percentile in the past 5 years. The average median duration in the past 4 weeks was 3.26 years. The duration divergence increased, and the standard deviation of the estimated duration rose by 0.10 to 1.69 years. The median duration of short - term pure bond funds rose by 0.30 to 1.16 years. The median duration of credit bond funds rose by 0.21 to 2.89 years, with 7% of actively operated funds and 24% of conservatively operated funds; the median duration of interest - rate bond funds rose by 0.28 to 4.87 years, with 55% of actively operated funds and 4% of conservatively operated funds [21]. - The median estimated duration of credit bond funds rose by 0.21 to 2.89 years, at the 100.00% percentile in the past 5 years. The average median duration in the past 4 weeks was 2.78 years. The duration divergence increased, and the standard deviation of the estimated duration rose by 0.06 to 1.25 years. The median estimated duration of interest - rate bond funds rose by 0.28 to 4.87 years, at the 99.20% percentile in the past 5 years. The average median duration in the past 4 weeks was 5.00 years. The duration divergence increased, and the standard deviation of the estimated duration rose by 0.10 to 1.84 years [23]. - This week, the estimated duration of credit bond funds was concentrated in [2.5, 3) (167 funds), followed by [3, 3.5) (126 funds). The estimated duration of interest - rate bond funds was concentrated in [5,) (159 funds), followed by [4.5, 5) (54 funds) [28]. - Among credit bond funds, the proportion of funds with active duration operations (above the 80% percentile of their own duration in the past year) this week was 6.62%, and the proportion of funds with conservative duration operations (below the 20% percentile of their own duration in the past year) was 24.39%. Among interest - rate bond funds, the proportion of funds with active duration operations was 55.17%, and the proportion of funds with conservative duration operations was 4.02% [29]. - This week, the yield to maturity of China Bond's 1 - year China Development Bank bonds rose by 5bps. The median estimated duration of short - term pure bond funds rose by 0.30 to 1.16 years, at the 99.70% percentile in the past 5 years. The average median duration in the past 4 weeks was 1.16 years. The duration divergence increased, and the standard deviation of the estimated duration rose by 0.11 to 0.48 years. The estimated duration of passive policy - bank bond funds decreased by 0.12 to 3.65 years [33].

Sales Performance - Global PC device sales in Q2 2025 increased by 6.5% year-on-year, reaching approximately 68 million units[5] - U.S. PC sales were about 19 million units, showing a slight growth of 0.1% year-on-year[5] - Apple performed best in Q2 with global shipments of approximately 6.2 million units, a year-on-year increase of 21.4%[5] - In the U.S., Apple sold about 2.8 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 22.2%[5] Market Trends - Apple's Mac series outpaced the overall growth rate of laptops, with global and U.S. sales growth maintaining around 20% even when excluding U.S. sales[11] - Factors contributing to Apple's strong performance include an upcoming replacement cycle for PCs purchased during remote work/study periods and the 2025 student discount policy for MacBooks[12] Tariff Impact - The U.S. tariff policy could impose a 25% tariff on products from Japan and South Korea, with Taiwan's tariff situation remaining uncertain[3] - If tariffs are implemented, the cost of Mac series products could increase by at least 15% compared to the original 10% tariff[13] Risks - Potential risks include challenges in chip manufacturing processes and yield rates, uncertainty in tariff policies, and lower-than-expected PC device sales[4]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the agricultural sector, particularly in pig farming and livestock, with a focus on high-quality, low-cost expansion companies [2][20][36]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector index has shown a weekly increase of 1.09%, but it has underperformed compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [2][13]. - The pig farming sector is experiencing a slight adjustment in prices, with expectations of improved mid-term profitability due to better management of supply pressures [20][22]. - The poultry farming sector is facing price pressures due to weak demand, but there are expectations for recovery as consumer demand improves [30][33]. - The livestock sector is seeing a stabilization in beef prices, with potential for a new cycle of growth as supply constraints continue [36][37]. - The planting industry is stabilizing, with potential improvements if there are significant reductions in grain production due to external uncertainties [42][43]. - The feed and aquaculture sectors are showing stable prices, with a positive outlook for aquatic product prices [60][61]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agricultural index closed at 2759.14 points, with a weekly increase of 1.09%, while the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.09% as well [2][13]. 2. Key Data Tracking 2.1 Pig Farming - The average price of pigs is 14.81 yuan/kg, with a weekly decrease of 3.52%. The average weight of pigs at market is 129.03 kg, showing a slight increase [20][21]. - Profits for self-breeding and self-raising are reported at 133.87 yuan/head, indicating a positive trend in profitability [20][22]. 2.2 Poultry Farming - The average price of white feather chickens is 6.24 yuan/kg, with a weekly decrease of 7.56%. The profitability for parent stock chickens is negative, indicating pressure on margins [30][33]. 2.3 Livestock - The price of live cattle is 26.44 yuan/kg, with a slight decrease of 0.71%. The dairy sector is stabilizing, with expectations for milk prices to recover in the second half of 2025 [36][37]. 2.4 Planting Industry - Domestic corn prices are 2351.43 yuan/ton, showing a slight decrease. The report highlights the importance of grain production stability amid external uncertainties [42][43]. 2.5 Feed & Aquaculture - Feed prices remain stable, with no significant changes reported. Aquaculture prices are showing a positive trend, particularly for shrimp and abalone [60][61].

Investment Rating - The report recommends investment in the logistics sector, specifically in companies like SF Holding and Haichen Co., due to their resilience and growth potential [2][3]. Core Views - The express delivery industry has seen a significant increase, with national express delivery volume surpassing 1 trillion pieces, indicating strong growth potential [2]. - The logistics sector is under pressure, particularly in hazardous materials logistics, but there is a push towards smart logistics, which is expected to benefit companies like Haichen Co. [3]. - The aviation sector is experiencing robust growth, with major airports like Baiyun and Shenzhen expected to see significant profit increases in the first half of 2025 [4]. - The shipping industry is facing challenges, with a slight increase in the BDI index but a decline in container shipping rates [4][36]. Summary by Sections Transportation Market Review - The transportation index rose by 0.7% during the week of July 5-11, underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 0.1% [12]. Industry Fundamentals Tracking Express Delivery - The national express delivery volume has exceeded 1 trillion pieces, with a year-on-year growth of 16.6% [2]. - Jitu's package volume reached approximately 7.39 billion pieces in Q2 2025, with a growth rate of 3.5% [2]. Logistics - The chemical product price index (CCPI) is at 4035 points, down 14.4% year-on-year [3]. - The domestic shipping price for liquid chemicals is 163 RMB/ton, down 13.9% year-on-year [3]. Aviation Airports - Baiyun Airport expects a net profit of 679 million to 830 million RMB for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 55.06% to 89.51% [4]. - Shenzhen Airport anticipates a net profit of 287 million to 337 million RMB for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 64.78% to 93.47% [4]. Shipping - The CCFI index for export container shipping is 1313.7 points, down 2.2% week-on-week and down 39.0% year-on-year [21]. - The BDI index for dry bulk shipping is 1483.6 points, up 2.2% week-on-week but down 23.7% year-on-year [36]. Road and Rail Ports - The total cargo throughput at monitored ports was 25.988 million tons, down 5.28% week-on-week [5]. - The number of trucks passing through highways was 52.977 million, down 2.42% week-on-week but up 1.71% year-on-year [5].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the securities and insurance sectors, indicating potential for significant growth in the coming months [4][48]. Core Insights - The regulatory environment in mainland China is becoming more inclusive and proactive, particularly regarding the development of cryptocurrencies and stablecoins, which may enhance the financial sector's focus on these emerging technologies [2]. - The performance of brokerage firms is expected to improve significantly, with several companies projecting substantial increases in net profit for the first half of 2025, driven by favorable capital market conditions [3][28]. - The insurance sector is anticipated to see a near trillion yuan influx of funds into the market due to relaxed restrictions on insurance capital investments, with a focus on high-dividend stocks [4]. Summary by Sections Securities Sector - Several brokerage firms have reported impressive profit growth, with companies like Huaxi Securities and Guolian Minsheng showing net profit increases of over 1000% [3][28]. - The report recommends focusing on three main investment themes: stablecoin-related brokers, multi-financial firms like Hong Kong Exchanges, and potential acquisition targets within the brokerage sector [3]. Insurance Sector - The insurance industry is expected to see a significant increase in market participation, with an estimated influx of nearly 1 trillion yuan in investment funds due to regulatory changes [4]. - The report highlights the potential for value reassessment in the insurance sector, particularly for companies with strong fundamentals and low valuations [4]. - Key investment opportunities include companies with expected strong performance in Q2, undervalued large-cap stocks, and solid defensive positions in the property and casualty insurance sector [4]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that the A-share market has shown positive performance, with the non-bank financial sector outperforming the broader market [9]. - Data tracking indicates a significant increase in trading volumes and fundraising activities in the equity and bond markets, suggesting a robust market environment [11][20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the renewable energy sector, particularly highlighting Sunshine Power and Daikin Heavy Industries as top recommendations [5][6][11]. Core Insights - The renewable energy sector, particularly photovoltaics, is identified as a benchmark industry in the current "anti-involution" movement, with significant price interventions showing initial effectiveness [5][6]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring terminal price transmission capabilities and the formation of consistent expectations regarding price increases across the supply chain [5][6]. - The electric grid sector is experiencing accelerated construction, with significant contract wins reported, indicating robust growth potential [2][11]. - The solid-state battery trend is gaining momentum, with companies like Shanghai Xiba and Ganfeng Lithium making notable advancements in battery technology [7][9][12]. Summary by Relevant Sections Photovoltaics & Energy Storage - The report highlights the photovoltaic industry as a key focus area within the new energy sector, with price interventions beginning to show results [5]. - It recommends Sunshine Power as a leading beneficiary of improved market conditions and optimistic Q2 performance outlooks [5][6]. Wind Power - Daikin Heavy Industries is noted for exceeding Q2 performance expectations, with a strong long-term profit outlook [6]. - The report discusses favorable policy developments in Hainan province for offshore wind projects, indicating potential order opportunities [6]. Electric Grid - The report notes that Siyuan Electric's Q2 revenue reached 5.3 billion yuan, a 50% year-on-year increase, with net profit up 62% [2][11]. - The State Grid's recent contract wins totaling 21.19 billion yuan reflect a 38% year-on-year increase, marking a new high for single-batch contract amounts [2][11]. Lithium Battery - The report emphasizes the solid-state battery trend and the importance of lithium metal anodes as a long-term direction for battery technology [7]. - Companies like Shanghai Xiba are actively pursuing acquisitions to enhance their capabilities in lithium-related materials [12]. New Energy Vehicles - The report indicates a shift in the automotive market towards quality competition, with companies focusing on product quality rather than price competition [3]. - The launch of new models, such as the NIO L90, is expected to enhance market competitiveness and brand perception [18]. Hydrogen and Fuel Cells - The report notes a resurgence in interest in hydrogen energy, with government support and low valuations making it a potential investment hotspot [3]. Industry Events - Key industry events include the release of the "Notice on Renewable Energy Power Consumption Responsibility Weight" by the National Development and Reform Commission, which sets ambitious targets for renewable energy consumption [4][5]. - The report also highlights significant IPO plans from companies like Tianqi Materials and Xingyuan Materials, indicating a trend towards capital market engagement [10][18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Investing in ultra - long credit bonds is challenging due to high volatility. Since 2024, their yields have gone through multiple stages including rapid decline, adjustment, and oscillation [11]. - To improve the allocation win - rate, one can measure the cost - effectiveness of extending duration through credit spreads, understand institutional allocation behavior patterns, decide entry based on trading sentiment, and select high - liquidity value entities [4]. - The long - term stable market of ultra - long credit bonds generally requires continuous buying from trading accounts such as funds and wealth management products. Insurance mainly helps stabilize prices during market adjustments [50]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 High - Volatility Ultra - Long Credit Bonds - **Yield Fluctuation Stages**: Since 2024, the yields of ultra - long credit bonds have experienced 3 bull markets, 2 adjustments, and 1 oscillation. For example, from January to March 2024, the yields declined slightly at first and then increased due to various events; from April to July 2024, the demand for ultra - long credit bonds increased under institutional under - allocation pressure [11]. - **Volatility and Investment Difficulties**: Although the volatility of ultra - long credit bonds in the second quarter of 2025 was lower than the same period last year, it was still higher than most of 2024 from January to April. The high volatility provides capital gain opportunities but is difficult for band - trading due to liquidity issues [16]. 3.2 How to Improve Allocation Win - Rate 3.2.1 Measure the Cost - Effectiveness of Extending Duration through Credit Spreads - **Credit Spread Channels**: By using the 30 - day average of credit spreads to form upper and lower tracks, when the credit spread touches the upper track, there is a large compression space, and when it touches the lower track, it may rebound. However, this indicator has some limitations and should be combined with other factors [21]. - **Term Spread Channels**: Similar to credit spreads, term spread channels can also be used to predict market trends. But they also have limitations in considering factors such as institutional behavior and policy changes [24]. - **Credit Spread Quantiles**: As of July 4, 2025, the credit spreads of some long - term bonds are at relatively low quantiles, indicating limited further compression space [27]. 3.2.2 Grasp the Laws of Institutional Allocation Behavior - **Insurance**: Ultra - long credit bonds match the duration of insurance products and can alleviate the asset shortage problem. Insurance is a stable buyer, but its buying volume is affected by the supply rhythm of interest - rate bonds and the "good start" seasonal pattern [32]. - **Wealth Management**: Due to bank quarterly assessments and fund repatriation, wealth management scale usually declines at the end of the quarter and rebounds at the beginning. In recent four years, there have been relatively large month - on - month increases in April and July, leading to an increased demand for credit bonds [38]. - **Public Funds**: Ultra - long credit bonds are attractive for their coupon income and duration offensive. Funds tend to extend duration in a bull market but increase selling during market adjustments [42]. - **Credit Bond ETFs**: Since late May, credit bond ETFs have expanded rapidly. By July 4, 2025, the scale of 8 benchmark - making market - making credit bond ETFs had increased to 13.22 billion yuan, which has promoted the bull market of ultra - long credit bonds [45]. 3.2.3 Decide Entry Based on Trading Sentiment - Currently, the sentiment of bond market investors participating in long - term credit bonds is over - heated. The trading deviation of credit bonds over 10 years has approached the levels during the strongest rising periods in 2024. However, the over - crowded market is increasing potential adjustment risks [53]. 3.2.4 Layout High - Liquidity Value Entities - When the ultra - long credit bond market starts, one can focus on the outstanding bonds of entities with large outstanding ultra - long bond scales and ratings of AA+ or above. For example, State Grid, Chengtong Holdings, and Sinochem Group have relatively large outstanding scales [60]. - Further, one can select entities with higher term spreads than the market average, indicating potential for long - term bond interest rate compression [61].