Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - Offline retail: Yonghui's employee training system is continuously upgraded, and the "Craftsman Plan" is steadily progressing. The training center and operations center have developed national skill standards covering seven core projects, with over 3,000 technician certifications expected to be completed by mid-June [1][12] - Online retail: AI empowerment is gradually strengthening, with Kuaishou's Keling achieving an annualized revenue run rate exceeding 100 million USD, and Meituan launching the first AI tool for hotel merchants in China [2][15] Industry Data Tracking - GMV performance: In the second week of May, the overall GMV of Tmall and JD.com decreased by 6.23% year-on-year. The top five categories in terms of growth were automotive and bicycles, consumer electronics, services, home appliances, and toys [3][17] Market Review - From June 2 to June 6, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, CSI 300, Hang Seng Index, and Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 1.13%, 1.42%, 0.88%, 2.16%, and 2.25% respectively. The retail trade sector rose by 1.29%, ranking sixth among nine major consumption sectors [4][22] Investment Recommendations - Yonghui Supermarket: The business model has undergone fundamental changes, moving towards a selective retail route with long-term growth potential in the post-consumption era. Yonghui has unique competitive advantages, including a strong focus on fresh produce, scale advantages, and financing benefits from its listed status [5][30] - Meituan: The takeaway service is entering a new competitive landscape, with long-term confidence in the barriers built in user mindset, rider, and merchant sides. User loyalty is expected to remain strong despite competition from JD.com [6][32]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The reading of the micro - trading thermometer in the bond market this period has increased by 2 percentage points to 43%. Except for trading heat, the average quantile of other indicators has risen. The decline in the average quantile of trading heat is mainly due to the different degrees of decline in the quantile values of relative turnover rate and TL/T long - short ratio. The indicators with a relatively large increase in value include fund divergence, listed company's wealth management purchase volume, real estate price ratio, and policy spread [2][14]. - The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range remains at 10%. Among the 20 micro - indicators, 2 are in the over - heated range (10%), 11 are in the neutral range (55%), and 7 are in the cold range (35%). Some indicators have changed their ranges [3][19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Micro - trading Thermometer Reading - The "Guojin Securities Fixed Income - Bond Market Micro - trading Thermometer" has increased by 2 percentage points to 43% compared with the previous period. Except for trading heat, the average quantile of other indicators has risen. The decline in the average quantile of trading heat is due to the decline in the quantile values of relative turnover rate and TL/T long - short ratio, while indicators such as fund divergence, listed company's wealth management purchase volume, real estate price ratio, and policy spread have increased significantly [2][14]. 3.2. Proportion of Indicators in the Over - heated Range - Among the 20 micro - indicators, 2 are in the over - heated range (10%), 11 are in the neutral range (55%), and 7 are in the cold range (35%). The 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate has dropped from the neutral range to the cold range, the allocation disk strength has dropped from the over - heated range to the neutral range, the policy spread and stock - bond price ratio have risen from the cold range to the neutral range, and the institutional leverage has risen from the neutral range to the over - heated range [3][19]. 3.3. Changes in Different Indicator Categories 3.3.1. Trading Heat Indicators - The average quantile of trading heat indicators has decreased by 7 percentage points. The quantile values of 30/10Y and 1/10Y relative turnover rates have decreased by 43 and 10 percentage points respectively, and the quantile value of TL/T long - short ratio has decreased by 6 percentage points. The quantile values of the whole - market turnover rate and institutional leverage have increased by 7 and 11 percentage points respectively. The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range has risen to 17%, the proportion in the neutral range has dropped to 50%, and the proportion in the cold range has risen to 33%. The 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate has dropped from the neutral range to the cold range, and the institutional leverage has risen from the neutral range to the over - heated range [4][5]. 3.3.2. Institutional Behavior Indicators - The average quantile of institutional behavior indicators has increased by 6 percentage points. Only the quantile values of fund duration and allocation disk strength have decreased by 8 and 4 percentage points respectively, while the quantile values of other indicators have increased to varying degrees. The quantile values of listed company's wealth management purchase volume and fund divergence have increased by 21 and 18 percentage points respectively. The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range has dropped to 13%, the proportion in the neutral range has risen to 63%, and the proportion in the cold range remains at 25%. The allocation disk strength has dropped from the over - heated range to the neutral range [4][6]. 3.3.3. Spread Indicators - The average quantile of spread indicators has increased by 7 percentage points. The market spread and policy spread quantile values have increased by 2 and 12 percentage points respectively. The policy spread has continued to narrow by 4bp to 4bp, and its quantile value has increased by 12 percentage points to 42%, rising from the cold range to the neutral range. The credit spread has widened by 2bp, the Agricultural Development - CDB spread has slightly widened by 1bp, and the IRS - SHIBOR 3M spread has narrowed by 3bp. The average spread of the three remains basically at 17bp, and its quantile value has increased by 2 percentage points to 44%, remaining in the neutral range [4][7]. 3.3.4. Price Ratio Indicators - The average quantile of price ratio indicators has increased by 7 percentage points. The proportion of indicators in the cold range has dropped to 75%, and the proportion in the neutral range has risen to 25%. The stock - bond price ratio quantile value has continued to increase by 7 percentage points to 40%, and the commodity price ratio and real estate price ratio quantile values have increased by 4 and 16 percentage points respectively, still remaining in the cold range [4][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the Hong Kong stock market, indicating a strong risk appetite and suggesting investment opportunities in various sectors, particularly in virtual assets and Web 3.0 [3][10]. Core Insights - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a significant increase in risk appetite, with improved asset quality and trading volume, highlighting the value of asset trading platforms [3][10]. - There is a notable uptrend in multiple sectors such as AI, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals, with a particular focus on small and mid-cap stocks in media and consumer sectors [3][10]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing development of virtual assets and the Web 3.0 market, driven by stablecoin policies and recent IPOs, suggesting that more regulatory frameworks will emerge [3][10]. - The trend of Chinese companies returning to Hong Kong for IPOs is gaining momentum, with increased trading of companies like NetEase and Ctrip in the Hong Kong market [3][10]. - The valuation of overseas Chinese assets remains influenced by US-China trade relations and the broader economic environment, necessitating close monitoring of trade policies and domestic economic changes [3][10]. Summary by Sections Education - The K12 education sector maintains high growth, with leading institutions reporting over 20% revenue growth during the winter training period, and an increase in non-academic course retention rates [5][11]. Luxury Goods - The luxury goods market shows slight pressure due to macroeconomic factors, but brands that align with demand trends are performing well, with cautious price increases observed [5][20]. Coffee and Tea Drinks & OTA - Coffee and tea remain key categories for delivery platforms, with strong performance from major brands like Luckin Coffee, which continues to expand its store presence [5][25]. E-commerce - The e-commerce sector faces slight pressure, but major platforms like Alibaba and JD.com are expected to benefit from ongoing promotional activities [5][26]. Streaming Platforms - Music streaming platforms are viewed as high-quality internet assets, with sustained profitability driven by scale effects [5][34]. Virtual Assets & Internet Brokers - The stablecoin leader Circle's IPO saw a 168% increase on its first day, marking a significant event in the virtual asset space [5][38]. Real Estate Transactions - Recent data shows a slight decline in second-hand housing transactions in major cities, suggesting a need for caution in the real estate market [5][50]. Automotive Services - The automotive aftermarket is under pressure, with traditional fuel vehicle service visits declining, while new energy vehicle service visits are increasing [5][45].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral investment rating for the agricultural sector, with expectations of limited price fluctuations in the near term [76]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector index outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 0.91% [13][14]. - The report highlights the ongoing adjustments in the pig farming industry, with a focus on the profitability of leading companies amidst fluctuating prices [20][21]. - The poultry sector is experiencing price stabilization despite seasonal demand fluctuations, with potential impacts from avian influenza affecting supply [33][29]. - The dairy and beef sectors are showing signs of recovery, with rising prices for raw milk and beef, indicating a potential upward trend in profitability [37]. - The planting industry is stabilizing, with potential improvements expected if there are significant reductions in grain production due to external factors [44]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agricultural index closed at 2682.22 points, with a weekly increase of 0.91%, outperforming major indices [13][14]. - The top-performing sectors included telecommunications and non-ferrous metals, while agriculture ranked 20th [14]. 2. Key Data Tracking 2.1 Pig Farming - The average weight of pigs at market was 129.17 kg, with prices showing a slight decline [19][20]. - Leading companies are expected to maintain profitability above 200 CNY per pig in the first half of the year [21]. - The report suggests a cautious outlook for the second half of the year due to supply pressures [21]. 2.2 Poultry Farming - White feather chicken prices decreased to 7.32 CNY/kg, while overall prices remained stable [29][33]. - The report anticipates a recovery in consumer demand as macroeconomic policies adjust [33]. 2.3 Dairy and Beef Industry - Raw milk prices have stabilized at 2.6 CNY/kg, with expectations for further recovery in the second half of 2025 [37]. - The beef market is showing signs of a new cycle, with rising prices for calves and live cattle [37]. 2.4 Planting Industry - Grain prices are experiencing fluctuations due to tariff policies and external uncertainties [44]. - The report emphasizes the importance of increasing grain yields to counteract potential production declines [44]. 2.5 Feed and Aquaculture - Feed prices have stabilized, with slight variations in water product prices [64]. - The report notes that prices for various fish species remain steady, with some increases in shrimp prices [64].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive long-term investment outlook for the home furnishing sector, particularly for companies with high dividend support and strong growth potential in 2025 [4][11]. Core Insights - The home furnishing sector is experiencing weak domestic order intake since May, with government subsidies losing their stimulating effect on demand. However, there are long-term investment opportunities for leading domestic companies with high earnings growth certainty and attractive valuations [4][11]. - The new tobacco sector is expected to see a mid-single-digit growth in H1 2025, with a potential for double-digit growth when excluding the impact of illegal vaping products in North America. The HNB business is anticipated to accelerate in H2 2025 [4][12]. - The paper industry is stabilizing with paper prices holding steady, but overall demand remains weak due to seasonal factors, leading to a forecast of continued weak pricing [4][13]. - The light consumer goods and pet sectors are showing high growth potential, with a focus on companies that demonstrate clear performance and innovative product offerings [4][14]. - The two-wheeler sector is facing short-term pressure but is expected to rebound in H2 2025 with the implementation of new national standards and the continuation of trade-in policies [4][15]. Summary by Sections Home Furnishing Sector - Domestic order intake has been weak since May, with government subsidies losing effectiveness. There is a recommendation to focus on leading domestic companies with high earnings growth certainty and attractive valuations for long-term investment [4][11]. - Specific companies recommended include Sophia, Gujia Home, and Mousse, which are expected to benefit from strategic channel improvements and product innovations [4][11]. New Tobacco Sector - British American Tobacco has updated its H1 2025 earnings expectations, forecasting low single-digit growth, with a potential acceleration in H2 2025. The HNB business is expected to see significant growth due to successful product launches in key markets [4][12]. - The report emphasizes the importance of compliance brands and the growth opportunities within the industry as regulations tighten against illegal products [4][12]. Paper Industry - Paper prices are stabilizing, with prices for various paper types remaining unchanged. However, demand is weak due to seasonal factors, and the overall pricing outlook remains weak [4][13]. - The report notes that inventory levels are high, and supply pressures are expected to increase due to rising imports from Brazil [4][13]. Light Consumer Goods & Pet Sector - The report highlights the importance of innovation and clear performance metrics in the light consumer goods and pet sectors. Companies like Guibao Pet are noted for their strong market positioning and growth potential [4][14]. - The introduction of new products and the expansion of online sales channels are key growth drivers [4][14]. Two-Wheeler Sector - The two-wheeler market is experiencing short-term pressure but is expected to recover in H2 2025 with new regulations and product launches. Companies like Yadi Holdings are recommended for their strong market position and growth potential [4][15]. - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong product offerings and effective channel strategies [4][15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook for the industry, suggesting a potential growth exceeding the market average in the coming months [37]. Core Insights - Lululemon's FY25Q1 performance shows steady growth with revenue of $2.371 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.32%, although slightly below analyst expectations of $2.57 billion. The gross margin improved by 0.62 percentage points to 58.34% due to reduced product costs and optimized discounts [10][12]. - The company expects full-year revenue to be between $11.15 billion and $11.30 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 5%-7%. Excluding the additional week in 2024, the expected growth is 7%-8% [15][10]. - In North America, revenue reached $1.675 billion, a 3% increase year-on-year, while the Chinese market showed strong performance with revenue of $368 million, up 21% year-on-year [12][10]. Summary by Sections Industry Data Tracking - In April, apparel retail sales grew by 2.2%, underperforming the overall consumer market due to adverse weather conditions affecting spring apparel sales. The report anticipates improvement in May due to better weather and increased consumer activity [16][3]. - Raw material prices remained stable, with fluctuations in cotton and synthetic fiber prices noted [19][20]. Investment Recommendations - For apparel brands, recommendations include Hai Lan Home, which is adapting to consumer trends and expanding its store presence, and Anta Sports, which is expected to benefit from strong performance in its multi-brand strategy. Additionally, recommendations include leading brands like Bi Yin Le Fen and All Cotton Times [22][4]. - In the upstream manufacturing sector, the report suggests that leading textile manufacturers like Zhejiang Ziran and Shenzhou International are well-positioned to benefit from market shifts due to tariff impacts [22][4]. Market Review and Company News - The textile and apparel sector saw a 1.89% increase in the past week, with notable performances from companies like Langsha and Huasheng [23][28]. - Key company announcements include Nanshan Zhishang's stock issuance and Jiangnan Buyi's land bidding for industrial use [34][34].

敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 折价幅度靠前 50 只 AA 城投债（主体评级）中，"24 淮建 01"估值价格偏离程度最大。净价跌幅靠前 50 只个券中， "25 深铁 03"估值价格偏离幅度最大。净价上涨幅度靠前 50 只个券中，"22 万科 04"估值价格偏离幅度最大。净 价上涨幅度靠前 50 只二永债中，"23 中行二级资本债 01B"估值价格偏离程度最大。 统计数据偏差或遗漏，高估值个券出现信用风险 扫码获取更多服务 固定收益动态(动态) 图表1：折价幅度靠前 50 只 AA 城投债（主体评级） | 债券名称 | 剩余期 限(年) | 估值价格 偏离(%) | 估值净价 (元) | 估值收益 | 当日估值 收益(%) | 票面利率 (%) | 隐含评 级 | 主体评 级 | 成交日期 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 率偏离 | | | | | | | | | | | (bp) | | | | | | | 24 淮建 01 | 4.28 | -0.25 | 101.55 | 6.20 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5][10]. Core Views - The company is transitioning to an IDM model, integrating chip design and wafer manufacturing, which will enhance its product offerings in high-demand sectors such as AI, automotive electronics, and IoT [3][4]. - The acquisition of a majority stake in Zhongxin Ningbo will enable the company to expand its capabilities in high-end filter and MEMS manufacturing, addressing the growing demand for RF front-end components in 5G devices [4]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - On June 5, 2025, the company announced a plan to acquire 94.366% of Zhongxin Ningbo's shares through a combination of stock issuance and cash payment, along with raising supporting funds from up to 35 qualified investors [2]. Operational Analysis - The company previously operated under a Fabless model, focusing on providing chip solutions for various applications. The acquisition will allow it to produce specialized components, thereby broadening its market reach [3]. Acquisition Strategy - Zhongxin Ningbo is recognized as a leading domestic semiconductor foundry with unique capabilities in filter manufacturing and MEMS technology, which will significantly enhance the company's product portfolio and market position [4]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 129 million, 221 million, and 309 million RMB, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.60, 1.02, and 1.42 RMB [5][7].

- Artificial Intelligence Global Asset Allocation Model: The model applies machine learning to asset allocation, using factor investment to score and rank assets, and ultimately constructs a monthly frequency quantitative equal-weight allocation strategy for global assets[35] - Construction Process: The model suggests weights for June as follows: Treasury Index (68.18%), ICE Brent Oil (13.35%), Nikkei 225 Index (11.60%), and Nasdaq Index (6.87%). The weights for ICE Brent Oil and Nikkei 225 Index were increased, while the weights for Treasury and German DAX Index were decreased[35][38] - Evaluation: The model has shown superior performance compared to the benchmark in various dimensions, including annualized return, Sharpe ratio, and maximum drawdown[35] - Testing Results: From January 2021 to May 2025, the model's annualized return is 6.54%, Sharpe ratio is 0.75, maximum drawdown is -6.66%, excess annualized return is 1.09%, excess Sharpe ratio is 0.19, and excess maximum drawdown is -8.67%. The benchmark's annualized return is 5.05%, Sharpe ratio is 0.54, and maximum drawdown is -12.67%[35][39] - Stock-Bond Allocation Model: The model is based on macro timing modules and risk budgeting framework, producing weights for three different risk profiles: aggressive, stable, and conservative[40] - Construction Process: For June, the stock weights for aggressive, stable, and conservative profiles are 45%, 13.92%, and 0%, respectively. The model's signals for May were 50% for economic growth and 40% for monetary liquidity[40][42] - Evaluation: The model has performed well historically, with all three profiles showing superior performance compared to the benchmark in various dimensions[40] - Testing Results: From January 2005 to May 2025, the annualized returns for aggressive, stable, and conservative profiles are 19.90%, 10.97%, and 6.04%, respectively. The benchmark's annualized return is 8.50%. The Sharpe ratios for aggressive, stable, and conservative profiles are 1.28, 1.18, and 1.51, respectively, compared to the benchmark's 0.51[40][47] - Dividend Style Timing Model: The model uses economic growth and monetary liquidity indicators to construct a timing strategy for the dividend index, showing significant stability improvement compared to the full return of the CSI Dividend Index[48] - Construction Process: For May, the model recommended a 100% position in the CSI Dividend Index. Most economic growth indicators were bullish, while monetary liquidity signals were cautious, resulting in a composite signal of 100%[48] - Evaluation: The timing strategy has shown stable performance, with significant improvements in annualized return, Sharpe ratio, and maximum drawdown compared to the CSI Dividend Index[48] - Testing Results: The annualized return of the timing strategy is 15.74%, Sharpe ratio is 0.89, and maximum drawdown is -21.70%. The CSI Dividend Index's annualized return is 11.26%, Sharpe ratio is 0.56, and maximum drawdown is -36.80%[48][51]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 36.93 CNY based on a 15x valuation for 2025 [4]. Core Viewpoints - The company has a market share of nearly 70% in the gypsum board market, which has a size of approximately 150-200 billion CNY. The company aims to enhance the consumption attributes of gypsum boards, reduce costs, expand product categories, and accelerate internationalization [2][14]. - The company has adopted a "one body, two wings" strategy, focusing on waterproof materials and coatings, with significant revenue growth in both segments [3]. - The company has implemented a restricted stock incentive plan, projecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of non-net profit attributable to shareholders of at least 14.22%, 16.12%, and 17.08% for 2025-2027 [4]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Gypsum Board Consumption Attributes - The company has a gypsum board market share of 67.38%, with a production volume of 2.165 billion square meters in 2023 [14]. - The company is focused on cost reduction, with a projected unit cost of 3.71 CNY per square meter in 2024, down by 0.19 CNY from the previous year [52]. - The company is expanding its product categories, including light steel keels and powder mortar, and is investing in gypsum fiber boards for interior and partition walls [2][63]. Section 2: Waterproof and Coating Business Expansion - The waterproofing materials segment has reached a revenue scale among the top three in the industry, while the coatings segment is expanding through acquisitions, including a significant merger with Jiaboli [3]. - The company’s coating production capacity is expected to increase from 103,000 tons to over 1.3 million tons by the end of 2024 [3]. Section 3: Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company forecasts revenues of 28.168 billion CNY, 30.126 billion CNY, and 32.317 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with growth rates of 9%, 7%, and 7% [4][8]. - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders is 4.142 billion CNY, 4.449 billion CNY, and 4.813 billion CNY for the same years, with growth rates of 14%, 7%, and 8% [4][8].