Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the Hong Kong stock market, particularly in the areas of virtual assets and Web3.0 development, suggesting a strong investment opportunity in these sectors [2][9]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring global tariff negotiations, particularly the recent developments in U.S.-China trade relations and their potential impact on market dynamics [9]. - There is a notable increase in the quality and risk appetite of Hong Kong assets, with a focus on asset trading platforms as valuable investment opportunities [9]. - The report highlights the active performance of virtual asset-related stocks in Hong Kong, driven by stablecoin policies, and anticipates further regulatory developments in this area [2][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Situation Tracking 1.1 Education - The K12 education sector shows strong growth, with leading institutions reporting over 20% revenue growth for winter training sessions [4]. - Recent product launches in AI education indicate ongoing innovation in the sector [4][17]. 1.2 Luxury Goods - The luxury goods sector is experiencing disruptions due to U.S.-EU tariff policies, with cautious price increases observed among brands [4][19]. - LVMH expresses confidence in the Chinese market despite recent consumption declines, indicating a long-term positive outlook [21]. 1.3 Coffee and Beverage Chains - Coffee and tea remain key categories for delivery platforms, with recent subsidies from platforms like JD.com [4]. - Coffee futures have seen a significant decline, which may alleviate cost pressures for companies like Luckin Coffee [4][27]. 1.4 E-commerce - Major players like Alibaba and JD.com continue to compete aggressively in the delivery and retail sectors, impacting short-term profitability [4]. - The report notes strong performance in the "618" shopping festival, with significant growth in various product categories [32]. 2. Platform & Technology 2.1 Streaming Platforms - The streaming sector shows resilience, with Tencent Music and other platforms benefiting from scale effects [4][33]. - Recent transactions, such as HYBE's sale of SM Entertainment shares to Tencent Music, highlight strategic movements within the industry [34]. 2.2 Virtual Assets & Internet Brokers - The global cryptocurrency market capitalization is reported at $337.44 billion, reflecting a 4% decline [38]. - The introduction of the Stablecoin Regulation in Hong Kong marks a significant step in regulating digital asset activities [41].

2025 年 06 月 02 日 耐用消费产业行业研究 买入（维持评级） 行业周报 证券研究报告 国金证券研究所 分析师：赵中平（执业 S1130524050003） zhaozhongping＠gjzq.com.cn 分析师：杨欣（执业 S1130522080010） yangxin1＠gjzq.com.cn 分析师：王刚（执业 S1130524080001） wang_g＠gjzq.com.cn 分析师：张杨桓（执业 S1130522090001） zhangyanghuan＠gjzq.com.cn 消费中观策略&投资建议 ①基本面有向好变化的低位传统核心资产，资本市场逻辑是高低切，新消费已经将表观 30-60XPE 的高标估值体 系确立，传统核心资产的估值水位也有望在流动性宽松叠加公募基准欠配背景下向上修复，尤其是在地产高频数 据企稳经济有自发筑底倾向&传统消费 25Q2 开始财报基数下降景气度增速有自发回升趋势背景下，建议关注安踏 体育，雅迪控股，裕同科技等；②坚定持有兑现度较高的新消费龙头，建议关注泡泡玛特，康耐特光学等。预计 消费类资金有望向两个方向切换；③积极拥抱新消费赛道或具备新消费思维的传统 ...

本周观点 持续关注全球关税谈判： 投资逻辑 持续关注全球关税谈判。1）综合港股 IPO（无论是 A+H 还是新股 IPO）和成交量等因素来看，港股的资产质量、 风险偏好等都有显著提升，积极寻找港股的机会，其中资产交易平台的价值凸显。2）我们持续看好香港虚拟资 产、Web3.0 市场的发展，由于稳定币政策刺激，近期香港虚拟资产的相关个股表现活跃。我们认为，稳定币政策 只是香港虚拟资产大趋势下的一环，未来还会有更多政策制度出台。短期个股层面涨幅较大，建议关注业务持续 落地能力。3）我们看好美股中概回港趋势。 风险提示 后续政策不及预期风险；中美关系变化风险；内容上线及表现不及预期风险；宏观经济运行不及预期风险；AI 技 术迭代和应用不及预期风险；政策监管风险。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 教育：结合近期财报看，K12 教培行业景气良好，头部机构寒假培训收入增速多在 20%以上，非学科课程续班率 提升，继续看好头部机构转型后持续扩大市场份额。另外，上周高途推出毛豆爱学 AI 课堂、作业帮上线免费高 考志愿填报产品，持续关注 AI 教育进展。 奢侈品：美国对欧盟关税政策对板块的扰动持续。基本面来看，宏观经济影响奢侈 ...

通信周观点： 1）DeepSeek-R1-0528 发布，推理能力增强、幻觉率降低。DeepSeek-R1-0528 仍然采用 DeepSeek V3 Base 模型作为 基座，模型参数为 685B，开源版本可支持 128K 上下文总长度。在 AIME 2025 测试中，新版模型准确率由旧版的 70% 提升至 87.5%，主要得益于模型在推理过程中的思维深度增强：新版模型平均每题使用 23K tokens，约为旧版的两倍。 此外，与旧版相比，更新后的模型在改写润色、总结摘要、阅读理解等场景中，幻觉率降低了约 45-50%。我们认为， 国产大模型能力的持续优化将加速 AI 推理需求增长，利好国产算力芯片及 AI 服务器厂商。2）英伟达发布 1Q25 财 报，Blackwell 整体表现强劲，预计贡献数据中心收入的 70%，并已登陆 AWS、谷歌云等四大云平台。GB200 散热难题 得到攻克，并已于 1Q25 出货；GB300 将于 3Q25 出货。我们看好英伟达服务器组装厂、高速光模块厂商、液冷供应商 迎来业绩放量。同时，受到美国出口管制影响，英伟达针对中国市场的 H20 芯片计提了 45 亿美元库存减值（低于 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The copper market shows signs of upward momentum with a decrease in copper inventory and an increase in production rates, indicating a tightening supply situation [12][13] - The aluminum sector faces slight pressure due to the end of demand from the photovoltaic sector, with expectations of a demand test in June [12][14] - The gold market is experiencing reduced short-term safe-haven appeal due to easing inflation and fluctuating U.S. tariff policies [12][15] - The rare earth sector is expected to see a simultaneous increase in both domestic and international prices due to export controls and supply disruptions [12][36] - The antimony market is projected to recover due to resource scarcity and reduced global supply, despite recent price corrections [12][37] - Molybdenum prices are on the rise, supported by strong demand in the steel industry and low inventory levels [12][38] - Tin prices are experiencing a decline due to supply recovery expectations, but long-term demand remains positive [12][39] - Tungsten prices are increasing due to tightened supply expectations from domestic mining regulations [12][40] Summary by Sections 1. Overview of Bulk and Precious Metals Market - Copper shows a positive turning point with expected supply tightening in June [12] - Aluminum faces demand pressure as the photovoltaic installation rush ends [12] - Precious metals, particularly gold, are expected to see price increases driven by supply constraints and central bank purchases [12] 2. Bulk and Precious Metals Fundamentals Update 2.1 Copper - LME copper price decreased by 1.22% to $9,497.00 per ton, with domestic inventory continuing to decline [13] - The smelting sector shows increased production rates, indicating a robust supply chain [13] 2.2 Aluminum - LME aluminum price decreased by 0.71% to $2,448.50 per ton, with inventory levels dropping [14] - The operational rate of aluminum processing remains stable, providing some support for future demand [14] 2.3 Precious Metals - COMEX gold price decreased by 1.33% to $3,313.10 per ounce, influenced by U.S. inflation trends [15] - SPDR gold holdings increased, indicating ongoing interest despite short-term price fluctuations [15] 3. Overview of Minor Metals and Rare Earths Market - The rare earth sector is experiencing a robust upward trend due to supply constraints and regulatory changes [12][36] - Antimony prices are expected to recover as global supply tightens [12][37] 4. Minor Metals and Rare Earths Fundamentals Update 4.1 Rare Earths - Prices for various rare earth elements are increasing, driven by export controls and supply disruptions [36] 4.2 Antimony - Antimony prices are projected to recover due to resource scarcity and reduced global supply [37] 4.3 Molybdenum - Molybdenum prices are rising, supported by strong demand in the steel industry and low inventory levels [38] 4.4 Tin - Tin prices are declining due to supply recovery expectations, but long-term demand remains positive [39] 4.5 Tungsten - Tungsten prices are increasing due to tightened supply expectations from domestic mining regulations [40]

核心观点 投资建议 见"股票组合"。 风险提示 宏观经济变化风险；原材料价格波动风险；政策变化的风险。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 中国聚变能源公司进入公开招标阶段，可控核聚变板块有望迎来资本开支大周期。根据中核（上海)供应链管理 公司招标公告，中国聚变能源有限公司上海聚变科学研究中心建设工程方案设计项目进入公开招标阶段，资金 来源已经落实，我们看好该项目成为 BEST 项目之后的又一大规模投资项目，带动板块进入资本开支扩张周期。 当前我国可控核聚变正处于实验堆建设、工程堆验证阶段；看好可控核聚变产业在"十五五"期间有望进入密 集的资本开支期，看好可控核聚变板块资本开支扩张带来的投资机会。 液氮价格连续上涨，同比涨幅扩大，看好气体价格筑底回升。根据卓创资讯工业气体，自 250417 以来的 6 周， 液氮价格环比持续上涨，250529 当周液氮价格达 496 元/吨，同比+8.0%，继 250522 当周同比近两年来首次转 正之后，同比涨幅继续扩大。从供给端看，检修规模同比并无明显扩大，我们认为一方面根据隆众资讯，25052 9 当周液氮库容率仅为 32.4%，同比-9.5pct，库存较低导致检修带来的局部 ...

事件： 根据极目新闻报道，据河北衡水武邑县应急管理局通报，5 月 30 日 18 时 30 分左右，武邑县一化工企业车间发生 煮洗釜爆炸。事故发生后，市县消防、医疗、公安、应急等部门组织力量赶赴现场，全力开展救援处置工作。现场救 援工作已结束，事故造成 5 人死亡、2 人受伤（无生命危险），事故原因正在调查中。河北一名化工行业从业者曾接触 过煮洗釜爆炸事故，据介绍，使用煮洗釜的化工企业一般会生产低氮硝化纤维素。该从业者指出，使用煮洗釜，通常 会在釜内加入一些酸碱类清洗剂，会进行高低温切换或加压加温。如果煮洗釜里面的杂质排不干净，容易形成硝化物 沉积，而硝化物沉积遇到震动、撞击、高温高压，易生成硝化甘油，有诱发爆炸的可能。 点评： 硝化棉下游主要集中于涂料和油墨领域，具备易燃等特征。硝化纤维素是一种有机高分子化合物，俗称硝化棉或 棉花火药。根据北化股份公司公告，硝化棉呈白色纤维状，可降解难溶于水，溶于丙酮、乙醚乙醇混合溶液，易燃， 无烟，瞬间放出大量气体。硝化棉最初应用于军事领域，是制造枪炮发射药的主要原材料。之后，人们发现部分品种 的硝化棉具有良好的成膜性能，可以用于金属、木材等材料的表面涂层，自此硝化棉开始 ...

【一周一议】 行业公司重组转型进程加快。5 月 16 日，证监会正式发布实施修订后的《上市公司重大资产重组管理办法》，明确支 持符合商业逻辑的跨界并购、建立重组股份对价分期支付机制、新设重组简易审核程序、吸收合并锁定期差异化设置、 鼓励私募基金参与上市公司并购重组等。建筑建材行业重组转型在加快，①4 月 1 日，星空科技拟以 8.03 亿元的对价 收购中旗新材 24.97%股份，星空科技的一致行动人陈耀民拟以 1.61 亿元的对价收购中旗新材 5.01%股份。②5 月 27 日，富煌钢构拟通过发行股份及支付现金的方式（拟募集资金不超过 4 亿元）购买中科视界 100%股权。③5 月 30 日， 中天精装全资子公司中天精艺接到中经芯玑告知函，中经芯玑拟以 1.05 亿元、28.82 元/每注册资本的价格认购远见 智存 364.3303 万元新增注册资本。④5 月 31 日，菲林格尔发布《关于筹划控制权变更事项的停牌公告》，实际控制人 丁福如正在筹划公司股份协议转让事宜，该事项可能导致公司控制权发生变更。 继续关注"一带一路"进展，非洲方向看好建材出海第一股科达制造。5 月 25 日，首届全球企业共建高质量"一带 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the chemical industry Core Insights - The chemical market experienced fluctuations this week, with the Shenwan Basic Chemical Index declining by 0.66%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.42% [1] - Key events impacting the industry include an explosion at Shandong Youdao Chemical Co., which may lead to a price increase for K Amine and related products [1] - The exit of major players from specific chemical segments indicates ongoing supply adjustments in the industry [1] - The oil market remains under pressure, with OPEC+ maintaining current production quotas and discussions about potential increases in July [2] - The U.S. housing market is showing signs of weakness, with a significant drop in the April existing home sales index [2] - The automotive sector is facing intensified price competition, which may affect the entire supply chain [3] Summary by Sections Market Review - Brent crude futures averaged $64.36 per barrel this week, down 1.01% from the previous week, while WTI futures averaged $61.19 per barrel, also down 1% [10] - The basic chemical sector outperformed the index, with the petrochemical sector gaining 1.49% [10] - The top three performing sub-industries were pesticides (5.71%), polyester (3.1%), and other plastic products (2.42%), while the worst performers were carbon black (-5.64%), other chemical raw materials (-4.36%), and polyurethane (-3.73%) [11] Key Events - The U.S. International Trade Court blocked tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, impacting trade dynamics [2] - The automotive industry is experiencing a price war, with significant price cuts from major players like BYD [3] Chemical Product Price Movements - The report includes detailed price movements for various chemical products, indicating fluctuations and trends in the market [24][29][32] Industry Trends - The tire industry is stabilizing with a slight decrease in raw material prices, while demand is recovering [25] - The sweetener market, particularly for sucralose, is facing challenges with low demand and pricing pressures [27] - The dye market is stable, but demand remains weak, leading to cautious purchasing behavior [28] Future Outlook - The report suggests that the chemical industry may continue to face challenges due to external pressures such as tariffs and fluctuating demand [1][2][3]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The restructuring and transformation process of companies in the construction and building materials industry is accelerating, supported by new regulations from the China Securities Regulatory Commission [2][13] - The "Belt and Road" initiative continues to progress, with a focus on construction materials exports, particularly for Keda Manufacturing in Africa, which is seen as a leading player in the market [3][15] - The report highlights the cyclical nature of the industry, with specific price movements and production statistics for various materials such as cement, glass, and aluminum [4][16] Summary by Sections Weekly Discussion - The report discusses recent regulatory changes that support cross-border mergers and acquisitions in the construction and building materials sector, including specific transactions involving companies like Xingkong Technology and Fuhuang Steel [2][13] Cyclical Linkage - Cement prices averaged 368 RMB per ton, down 6 RMB year-on-year and 3 RMB month-on-month, with an average shipment rate of 47.8% [4][16] - Float glass prices averaged 1270.96 RMB per ton, showing a slight decrease, while concrete mixing stations reported a capacity utilization rate of 7.97% [4][16] - The report notes a decline in the steel market as it enters a traditional demand off-season, with potential impacts on pricing [4][16] National Subsidy Tracking - The Shanghai government has launched a plan to boost consumption, focusing on housing needs and the renovation of old neighborhoods, which may benefit related construction material companies [5][17] Important Changes - Several companies, including Sichuan Road and Bridge and Huaxin Cement, are undergoing significant transactions and restructuring efforts, indicating active market movements [6][18]