证券研究报告 每周重要政策跟踪 2025年3月15日 吴信坤（策略首席分析师） SAC号码：S0850521070001 杨 锦（策略资深分析师） SAC号码：S0850523030001 刘 颖（策略高级分析师） SAC号码：S0850524070004 一周政策要览 2 国内宏观：3月8日，十四届全国人大三次会议举行第二次全体会议。3月11日，财政部等两部门印发 关于做好运用地方政府专项债券支持土地储备有关工作的通知，明确发债要求及资金使用主体。3月 12日，国务院常务会议讨论通过《国务院2025年重点工作分工方案》，明确了全年经济社会发展目 标任务；中国外汇交易中心印发《外汇交易中心关于减免银行间外汇市场长期限衍生品交易手续费的 通知》。3月13日，央行党委召开扩大会议，拓展宏观审慎功能，维护市场稳定。 国内产业：3月8日，国家数据局召开推动数据企业发展工作座谈会，推动数据资源开发利用，促进数 据产业高质量发展。3月9日，住建部推进收购存量商品房，改革完善房地产开发、销售等基础性制 度。3月12日，工信部等三部门印发《关于促进环保装备制造业高质量发展的若干意见》。3月14日， 市场监管总局印发《市场监管 ...

[Table_MainInfo] 金融工程研究 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 相关研究 [Table_ReportInfo] 《稳健型固收+产品 YTD 业绩中位数 0.09%——绝对收益产品及策略周报 （202502303-20250307）》2025.03.11 《下周 A 股或继续呈现震荡走势——量 化择时和拥挤度预警周报（20250311）》 2025.03.11 《均衡组合维持优势——风格 Smart beta 组合跟踪周报 （2025.03.03-2025.03.07）》2025.03.11 金融工程周报 2025 年 03 月 15 日 量价因子表现显著修复——量化选股周报 （2025.03.07- 2025.03.14） [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 分析师:郑雅斌 Tel:(021)23219395 Email:zhengyb@haitong.com 证书:S0850511040004 分析师:罗蕾 Tel:(021)23185653 Email:ll9773@haitong.com 证书:S0850516080002 [Ta ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the report on the specific company is "Outperform the Market" [2]. Core Viewpoints - The specific company is a global leader in rail transit equipment, benefiting from significant state-owned enterprise reforms and emphasizing dividends and market value management. It has maintained stable revenue and profit growth since the merger of "South North Car" in 2015, with a focus on optimizing its business structure to support profitability [5][6][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Global Rail Transit Equipment Leader - The specific company is the largest and most comprehensive rail transit equipment supplier globally, with products that meet world-class standards and are exported to nearly 100 countries [17][18]. - The company is backed by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, with a significant shareholding by the parent group, reflecting confidence in its long-term development [18]. 2. Railway Equipment: Clear Construction Planning - The railway construction sector has a strong planning characteristic, with expected fixed asset investments increasing by 8% year-on-year in 2025, supporting vehicle procurement and maintenance needs [6]. - The demand for new high-speed trains is expected to remain robust, with an estimated procurement of 258 new trains in 2025, and maintenance needs projected to exceed 500 units annually from 2025 to 2030 [6][7]. 3. Financial Data and Forecasts - The specific company achieved revenues of 234,262 million yuan in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 5.1%. The net profit for the same year was 11,712 million yuan, reflecting a slight increase of 0.5% [8]. - Forecasts indicate revenues of 256,330 million yuan in 2024, with a projected growth of 9.4%, and net profits expected to reach 13,474 million yuan, a 15% increase [8][10]. 4. New Industries: High-Speed Rail Technology Synergy - The company views clean energy equipment as a significant growth area, with strong growth in wind power orders and a focus on new energy vehicles and materials [10][21]. - The new materials sector is expected to contribute more to the company's performance as new production facilities come online [10]. 5. Profitability and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of 14,748 million yuan in 2025, with a reasonable valuation range of 8.22 to 9.76 yuan per share based on a PE ratio of 16-19 times [10][11].

| 市场表现 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | [Table_QuoteInfo] | 健之佳 | 海通综指 | | 8.67% | | | | -4.33% | | | | -17.33% | | | | -30.33% | | | | -43.33% | | | | -56.33% | | | | | 2024/3 2024/6 2024/9 2024/12 | | | 沪深 300 对比 | 1M | 2M | 3M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对涨幅（%） | 1.2 | 9.1 | -15.0 | | 相对涨幅（%） | -0.6 | 4.2 | -16.9 | | 资料来源：海通证券研究所 | | | | [Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/医药与健康护理 证券研究报告 健之佳（605266）公司研究报告 2025 年 03 月 14 日 [Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 优于大市 首次 覆盖 短期利润承压，新店整合有望带来业绩弹 性 03[Table_StockInfo 月 14 日收盘价（元）] 22.78 52 周 ...

[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/信息设备/半导体产品与半导体设备 证券研究报告 奥来德（688378）公司研究报告 2025 年 03 月 14 日 [Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 优于大市 首次 覆盖 股票数据 | 03[Table_StockInfo 月 13 日收盘价（元）] | 22.69 | | --- | --- | | 52 周股价波动（元） | 13.16-41.60 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万股） | 208/201 | | 总市值/流通市值（百万元） | 4723/4566 | | 相关研究 | | 市场表现 [Table_QuoteInfo] -47.10% -30.10% -13.10% 3.90% 20.90% 37.90% 2024/3 2024/6 2024/9 2024/12 奥来德 海通综指 沪深 300 对比 1M 2M 3M | 沪深 300 对比 | 1M | 2M | 3M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对涨幅（%） | -9.3 | 15.9 | -5.7 | | 相对涨幅（%） | -9.5 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for JD Group [4][11]. Core Views - JD Group's 4Q24 performance exceeded expectations with revenue of 347 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.4%, and Non-GAAP net profit of 11.3 billion yuan, up 34.5% year-on-year [4][5]. - The company has initiated a new share repurchase plan allowing for up to 5 billion USD in buybacks over the next 36 months [4]. - The growth in revenue is driven by the "trade-in" program for consumer goods, which is expected to continue into 2025 [4]. Financial Analysis - In 4Q24, JD Group's revenue reached 347 billion yuan, marking a 13.4% year-on-year increase, while Non-GAAP net profit was 11.3 billion yuan, reflecting a 34.5% increase year-on-year [7][10]. - The active user base and shopping frequency continued to grow at double-digit rates, with significant contributions from third-party merchants [7][10]. - Direct sales revenue for 4Q24 was 281 billion yuan, with home appliances and 3C products increasing by 15.8% and fast-moving consumer goods by 11.1% year-on-year [7][10]. - Service revenue for 4Q24 was 66 billion yuan, up 10.8% year-on-year, with platform and advertising revenue growing by 12.7% [7][10]. Major Financial Data and Forecast - The projected revenue for JD Group is expected to grow from 1,088 billion yuan in 2023 to 1,467 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7.2% [8][14]. - Non-GAAP net profit is forecasted to increase from 24.2 billion yuan in 2023 to 54.5 billion yuan by 2027, with a significant growth rate of 132.82% in 2024 [8][14]. - The report estimates a reasonable market capitalization range for 2025 between 627.5 billion and 704.1 billion HKD, translating to a target share price of 197 to 221 HKD [11][12].

4[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/汽车与零配件/汽车 证券研究报告 [Table_QuoteInfo] 沪深 300 对比 1M 2M 3M 绝对涨幅（%） 48.0 64.3 68.4 零跑汽车（9863）公司公告点评 2025 年 03 月 14 日 [Table_InvestInfo] 股票数据 | 0[3Ta月b1le3_日S收to盘ck价I（nf港o]币） | 50.10 | | --- | --- | | 52 周股价波动（港币） | 18.64-50.40 | | 总股本/流通股本（百万股） | 1337/1116 | | 总市值/流通市值（百万港币） | 55932/66982 | 相关研究 [《Ta提b前le一_R年e净p利or转tI正nf，o]Q4 毛利率预计 13%》 2025.01.14 《24Q3 销量创历史新高，毛利率环比大幅 改善》2024.11.15 《经营稳健向好，智驾投入加大，全方位与 Stellantis 开展合作》2024.08.16 市场表现 资料来源：海通证券研究所 分析师:刘一鸣 Tel:(021)23154145 Email:lym15114@hai ...

[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/房地产/房地产 证券研究报告 美凯龙（601828）公司研究报告 2025 年 03 月 14 日 [Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 优于大市 首次 覆盖 股票数据 | 03[Table_StockInfo 月 13 日收盘价（元）] | 3.02 | | --- | --- | | 52 周股价波动（元） | 2.02-4.45 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万股） | 4355/3613 | | 总市值/流通市值（百万元） | 13151/13151 | | 相关研究 | | 市场表现 Email:gql13820@haitong.com 证书:S0850521050003 分析师:高翩然 Email:gpr14257@haitong.com 证书:S0850522030002 全国家居商场运营龙头，盈利能力有望回升 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： [Table_QuoteInfo] -39.36% -25.36% -11.36% 2.64% 16.64% 30.64% 2024/3 2024/6 2024/9 2024/12 美凯龙 ...

[Table_MainInfo] 每日报告精选 证券研究报告 最新研究与资讯 2025 年 03 月 14 日 | | | | 名称 | 日涨跌% | 周涨跌% | 年涨跌% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 海通风格指数 | | | | | 大盘 100 | 0.48 | -0.32 | -4.65 | | 小盘 200 | -1.20 | 0.60 | 10.18 | | 表现最好前五行业 | | | | | 煤炭指数 | 4.03 | 5.53 | -10.91 | | 石油然气 | 1.76 | 2.02 | -10.72 | | 钢铁指数 | 1.18 | 2.81 | 10.46 | | 公用事业 | 0.70 | 1.03 | -5.47 | | 有色金属 | 0.44 | 3.71 | 12.10 | | 表现最差前五行业 | | | | | 通讯服务 | -2.47 | -6.09 | 20.61 | | 信息设备 | -2.04 | -2.36 | 6.38 | | 传媒指数 | -1.89 | -0.47 | 9.67 | | 信息服务 | -1.78 | -3 ...

[Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 优于大市 首次 覆盖 股票数据 | 03[Table_StockInfo 月 13 日收盘价（元）] | 29.86 | | --- | --- | | 52 周股价波动（元） | 20.85-57.30 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万股） | 211/211 | | 总市值/流通市值（百万元） | 6304/6304 | | 市场表现 | | [Table_QuoteInfo] -35.16% -20.16% -5.16% 9.84% 24.84% 2024/3 2024/6 2024/9 2024/12 安孚科技 海通综指 沪深 300 对比 1M 2M 3M 绝对涨幅（%） 9.2 21.3 7.1 相对涨幅（%） 9.0 16.1 9.7 资料来源：海通证券研究所 分析师:杨林 [Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/信息服务 证券研究报告 安孚科技（603031）公司研究报告 2025 年 03 月 14 日 | Tel:(021)23183969 | | --- | | Email:yl11036@haitong.com | | 证书:S08 ...