Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The company achieved a significant increase in net profit attributable to shareholders, growing by 26.44% year-on-year in 2024, with a total of 4.516 billion yuan [3] - The company is expected to continue expanding its overseas port resources, anticipating the release of synergistic effects from recent acquisitions [3] Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue**: In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 16.131 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.41%. The fourth quarter revenue was 3.964 billion yuan, showing a slight decline of 0.77% [3] - **Net Profit**: The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 was 4.516 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 26.44%. In Q4 2024, net profit reached 780 million yuan, marking an impressive increase of 84.67% year-on-year [3] - **Container Throughput**: The company reported a 16.31% increase in container throughput in the Pearl River Delta region, totaling 17.267 million TEUs in 2024. Overseas container throughput also grew by 9.68%, reaching 37.363 million TEUs [3] - **Investment Income**: Investment income from core holdings showed strong growth, with Shanghai Port Group contributing 4.182 billion yuan (up 13.00%) and Ningbo Port contributing 1.134 billion yuan (up 7.99%) in 2024 [3] - **Dividends**: The company announced a total dividend of 1.843 billion yuan for 2024, with a payout ratio of 41%. The planned dividend payout for 2025-2027 is set to be no less than 40% of distributable profits, an increase of 10 percentage points from previous years [3] Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 16.751 billion yuan, 17.329 billion yuan, and 17.911 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.85%, 3.45%, and 3.36% [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 4.457 billion yuan, 4.691 billion yuan, and 4.919 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of -1.30%, 5.24%, and 4.86% respectively [5] - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 1.78 yuan, 1.88 yuan, and 1.97 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [2][3] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 32.14 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 5.30% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.35 billion yuan, an increase of 1.81% year-on-year [2] - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 3.18 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.44%, with sales volume increasing by 5.61% to 750,000 kiloliters [2] - The company’s main brand sales volume in Q4 2024 increased by 7.45% year-on-year, indicating a positive growth trend [2] - The company’s gross margin improved to 40.2% in 2024, up by 1.57 percentage points year-on-year, driven by a decrease in operating costs [2] - The company is expected to see earnings per share (EPS) of 3.48, 3.96, and 4.39 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 23, 20, and 18 times [2] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2024 was 32.14 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of -5.3% [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 was 4.35 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 1.8% [3] - The gross margin for 2024 was 40.2%, an increase from 38.7% in 2023 [3] - The projected EPS for 2025 is 3.48 yuan, with a P/E ratio of 22.57 times [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The company achieved a significant increase in net profit attributable to shareholders, growing by 26.44% year-on-year in 2024, with a total of 4.516 billion yuan [3] - The company is expected to continue expanding its overseas port resources, anticipating the release of synergistic effects from recent acquisitions [3] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2024 reached 16.131 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.41%, while the fourth quarter saw a slight decline of 0.77% [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 was 4.516 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 26.44%, with the fourth quarter showing a remarkable increase of 84.67% year-on-year [3] - Container throughput in the Pearl River Delta region increased by 16.31% year-on-year, totaling 17.267 million TEUs in 2024 [3] - Overseas container throughput also saw a growth of 9.68%, reaching 37.363 million TEUs in 2024 [3] - Investment income from core holdings, such as Shanghai Port Group and Ningbo Port, increased by 13.00% and 7.99% respectively [3] - The company plans to maintain a cash dividend ratio of no less than 40% of distributable profits from 2025 to 2027, an increase of 10 percentage points from previous years [3] Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 16.751 billion, 17.329 billion, and 17.911 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.85%, 3.45%, and 3.36% [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 4.457 billion, 4.691 billion, and 4.919 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of -1.30%, 5.24%, and 4.86% respectively [5] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 1.78, 1.88, and 1.97 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Guizhou Moutai is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 174.14 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 86.23 billion yuan, up 15.4% year-on-year [2] - The company aims for a revenue growth of approximately 9% in 2025, actively seeking to adapt to changing demand environments and pursuing three transformations for more effective consumer engagement [2] - Despite the industry being in an adjustment phase, Guizhou Moutai is expected to maintain stable development due to its strong product mix and market management strategies [2] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 was 150.56 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 18.0%, and is projected to reach 190.13 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 9.2% [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 was 74.73 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 19.2%, expected to increase to 94.36 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 9.4% [3] - The gross margin for 2024 is reported at 91.9%, with a slight decrease projected to 91.8% in 2025 [3] Operational Insights - In 2024, the revenue from Moutai liquor was 145.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.3%, while series liquor revenue reached 24.68 billion yuan, up 19.7% [2] - The company’s direct sales revenue was 74.88 billion yuan, reflecting an 11.4% increase, with a slight decrease in direct sales proportion to 43.88% [2] - The company plans to maintain a dividend payout ratio of no less than 75% from 2024 to 2026, indicating a projected dividend yield close to 4% [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [2][3] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 32.14 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 5.3% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 4.35 billion yuan, an increase of 1.81% year-on-year [2] - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 3.18 billion yuan, an increase of 7.44% year-on-year, with sales volume rising by 5.61% to 750,000 kiloliters [2] - The company’s main brand sales volume in Q4 2024 increased by 7.45%, indicating a positive growth trend [2] - The company’s gross profit margin improved to 40.2% in 2024, up by 1.57 percentage points year-on-year, due to a decrease in operating costs [2][3] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2024 was 32.14 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of -5.3% [3] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 was 4.35 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 1.8% [3] - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 40.2%, an increase from 38.7% in 2023 [3] - The company’s EPS (Earnings Per Share) for 2024 was 3.19 yuan, with a projected EPS of 3.48 yuan for 2025 [3] Future Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to have EPS of 3.48 yuan in 2025, 3.96 yuan in 2026, and 4.39 yuan in 2027 [2][3] - The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 23, 20, and 18 times, respectively, based on the closing price of 78.51 yuan per share on April 2, 2025 [2]

证券研究报告 宏观研究 [Table_ReportType] 专题报告 | ] [Table_A 解运亮 uthor宏观首席 分析师 | | --- | | 执业编号：S1500521040002 | | 联系电话：010-83326858 | | 邮 箱： xieyunliang@cindasc.com | 麦麟玥 宏观分析师 执业编号：S1500524070002 邮 箱： mailinyue@cindasc.com [Table_Title] 一季度化债进度几何 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 4 月 3 日 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127 号金隅 大厦B 座 邮编：100031 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 [➢Table_Summary] 化债进度：一季度置换隐债的进度达全年额度的三分之二。目前今年计划 用于化债的额度为"2 万亿特殊再融资债"+"0.8 万亿特殊新增专项债"。 一季度特殊再融资债发行进度已达全年额度的 67%，整体发行节奏呈现明 显前置 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The company reported impressive financial results for 2024, achieving revenue of 8.505 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 167.5%, and a net profit of 1.473 billion RMB, up 253.9% [1][4] - The company's brand influence is expanding, with significant contributions to revenue growth from user acquisition and same-store sales, which increased by 120.9% year-on-year [2] - The company is set to open its first store in Singapore in 2025, marking its entry into international markets [3] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 41.2%, maintaining stability, while the adjusted net profit margin increased to 17.7% from 13.4% in 2023 [4] - The company plans to distribute a generous dividend of 6.35 RMB per share, totaling 1.07 billion RMB, which represents 73% of its 2024 profits [4] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 17.92 billion RMB, 25.89 billion RMB, and 35.16 billion RMB, reflecting growth rates of 111%, 44%, and 36% respectively [5][7] Store Expansion and Market Strategy - The company added 7 new stores in 2024, bringing the total to 36 self-operated stores across 15 cities, with a focus on high-end commercial centers [3] - The company plans to open 8 new stores in mainland China and 5 in Hong Kong, Macau, and Singapore over the next two years [3] Key Financial Metrics - The company's earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected at 8.75 RMB, with forecasts of 21.03 RMB, 31.58 RMB, and 44.23 RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [7][9] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the next three years are projected at 36, 24, and 17 [5][9]

证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 点评报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 良信股份 (002706) 联系电话：010-83326711 邮 箱：wuhao@cindasc.com 孙然 电力设备与新能源行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524080003 联系电话：18721956681 邮 箱：sunran@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲 127 号 金隅大厦 B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 静待行业复苏，关注 AI 数据中心场景应用 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 4 月 3 日 | 重要财务指标 | | | 单位: | | 百万元 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主要财务指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 营业总收入 | 4,585 | 4,238 | 5,059 | 5,989 | 6,882 | | 同比(%) | 1 ...

Quantitative Factors and Construction Factor Name: EP(TTM) (Earnings-to-Price Ratio) - **Construction Idea**: This factor represents the earnings-to-price ratio, used as a value factor to identify undervalued stocks[23] - **Construction Process**: - The factor is calculated as the ratio of earnings per share (EPS) to the stock price - Stocks are ranked based on their EP(TTM) values, and the top 20% are selected as the long portfolio, while the bottom 20% are selected as the short portfolio - Monthly rebalancing is performed on the first trading day of each month using the opening price[23] - **Evaluation**: The factor demonstrates strong historical performance, with significant excess returns and high Rank IC values, indicating its effectiveness in capturing value[23][26] - **Formula**: $ EP(TTM) = \frac{\text{Earnings Per Share (TTM)}}{\text{Stock Price}} $[23] Factor Name: BP(LF) (Book-to-Price Ratio) - **Construction Idea**: This factor represents the book-to-price ratio, another value factor used to identify undervalued stocks[23] - **Construction Process**: - The factor is calculated as the ratio of book value per share to the stock price - Stocks are ranked based on their BP(LF) values, and the top 20% are selected as the long portfolio, while the bottom 20% are selected as the short portfolio - Monthly rebalancing is performed on the first trading day of each month using the opening price[23] - **Evaluation**: The factor shows strong historical performance, with high excess returns and Rank IC values, indicating its robustness in identifying value opportunities[23][27] - **Formula**: $ BP(LF) = \frac{\text{Book Value Per Share}}{\text{Stock Price}} $[23] Factor Name: Dividend Yield (TTM) - **Construction Idea**: This factor represents the trailing twelve-month dividend yield, used as a dividend factor to identify high-yield stocks[23] - **Construction Process**: - The factor is calculated as the ratio of dividends per share (TTM) to the stock price - Stocks are ranked based on their dividend yield values, and the top 20% are selected as the long portfolio, while the bottom 20% are selected as the short portfolio - Monthly rebalancing is performed on the first trading day of each month using the opening price[23] - **Evaluation**: The factor has demonstrated consistent performance, with significant excess returns and Rank IC values, highlighting its effectiveness in capturing high-yield opportunities[23][28] - **Formula**: $ \text{Dividend Yield (TTM)} = \frac{\text{Dividends Per Share (TTM)}}{\text{Stock Price}} $[23] --- Factor Backtesting Results EP(TTM) Factor - **Rank IC**: 5.56%[26] - **Excess Return**: 9.14%[26] - **Sharpe Ratio**: 1.19[26] BP(LF) Factor - **Rank IC**: 6.80%[27] - **Excess Return**: 11.41%[27] - **Sharpe Ratio**: 1.37[27] Dividend Yield (TTM) Factor - **Rank IC**: 5.81%[28] - **Excess Return**: 8.96%[28] - **Sharpe Ratio**: 1.37[28]

证券研究报告 [Table_ReportType] 点评报告 公司研究 [Table_StockAndRank] 良信股份 (002706) 联系电话：010-83326711 邮 箱：wuhao@cindasc.com 孙然 电力设备与新能源行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524080003 联系电话：18721956681 邮 箱：sunran@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲 127 号 金隅大厦 B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 静待行业复苏，关注 AI 数据中心场景应用 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 4 月 3 日 | 重要财务指标 | | | 单位: | | 百万元 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主要财务指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 营业总收入 | 4,585 | 4,238 | 5,059 | 5,989 | 6,882 | | 同比(%) | 1 ...