证券研究报告 2025 年 9 月 24 日 星期三 【A 股市场大势研判】 市场全天探底回升，创业板尾盘快速翻红 市场表现： | 指数名称 | 收盘点位 | 涨跌幅 | 涨跌 | 上证指数分时图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3821.83 | -0.18% | -6.74 | | | 深证成指 | 13119.82 | -0.29% | -38.16 | | | 沪深 300 | 4519.78 | -0.06% | -2.83 | | | 创业板 | 3114.55 | 0.21% | 6.67 | | | 科创 50 | 1407.30 | -0.10% | -1.34 | | | 北证 50 | 1547.45 | -2.63% | -41.74 | | 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFinD 数据 板块排名： | 申万一级涨幅前五 | | | 申万一级跌幅前五 | 热点板块 n | 涨幅前五 | 热点板块跌幅前五 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 银行 | 1.52% ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a day of oscillation and ended with all three major indices rising, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3828.58, up 0.22% [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13157.97, up 0.67%, while the CSI 300 Index closed at 4522.61, up 0.46% [1] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included Electronics, which rose by 3.71%, and Computers, which increased by 1.70% [2] - The weakest sectors were Social Services, down 2.04%, and Beauty Care, down 1.36% [2] Market Trends - The market showed a strong performance in the consumer electronics sector, driven by positive news, while the robotics sector continued its strong trend [3] - The chip industry chain was notably active, and liquid-cooled server concept stocks saw fluctuations but ultimately rose [3] - The overall market saw approximately 2200 stocks rise, with over 70 stocks hitting the daily limit up [3] Economic Indicators - The September Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remained unchanged, with the 5-year LPR at 3.5% and the 1-year LPR at 3% [4] - The People's Bank of China provided insights into the financial industry's achievements during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, focusing on long-term perspectives without immediate policy adjustments [4] Market Liquidity and Outlook - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.12 trillion, a decrease of 202.3 billion from the previous trading day [5] - Despite the lack of a significant rebound, the market did not show risk signals, indicating that liquidity remains relatively active [5] - The report suggests that the mid-term upward momentum of the market remains strong, supported by continuous catalysts in the technology sector [5] - The report recommends focusing on sectors such as TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), public utilities, and non-ferrous metals for investment opportunities [5]

2025 年 1-8 月快递行业跟踪点评 | | | | | | | 分析师：邓升亮（SAC | 执业证书编号： | S0340523050001） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 | 年 | 9 | 月 | 22 | 日 | | | | | | | | | | | | 电话：0769-22119410 邮箱： | dengshengliang@dgzq.com.cn | 事件： 邮政局发布 2025 年 1-8 月快递发展报告与邮政行业运行情况。 交通运输行业 超配 （维持） 多省市启动快递反内卷，申通单票收入超预期 提升 点评： 8月快递价格止跌，件量增速放缓。据国家邮政局统计，2025年1-8月快递业务量累计完成1282.0亿件， 同比增长17.8%，其中8月快递业务量完成161.5亿件，同比增长12.3%。1-8月行业快递业务收入累计完 成9583.7亿元，同比增长9.2%，其中8月快递业务收入完成1189.6亿元，同比增长4.2%。8月行业平均 单票收入为7.37元，同比下降7.16%，环比提高0.01 ...

Weekly New Stock Performance - One new stock was listed from September 15 to September 19, with an average first-day price increase of 271.56%[2] - The only new stock, Shichang Co., saw a first-day increase exceeding 100%[2] - No new stocks experienced a first-day decline[2] Weekly New Stock Issuance Trends - The total fundraising amount for new stock issuance last week was 1.71 billion yuan, a decrease of 588 million yuan compared to the previous week[3] - The previous week (September 8 to September 12) had two new stocks listed, raising 7.59 billion yuan[4] Monthly New Stock Overview - From September 1 to September 19, four new stocks were listed, raising a total of 17.44 billion yuan, with a first-day price increase average of 374.95%[6] - All four new stocks listed during this period had first-day increases exceeding 100%[6] Upcoming New Stock Listings - One new stock, Yousheng Co., is scheduled to be listed on September 23, with an issue price of 46.36 yuan and a price-to-earnings ratio of 22.31[13] - One new stock, Aomeisen, is set for online subscription on September 22, with expected fundraising of 165 million yuan[14] Risk Considerations - New stock performance is influenced by market sentiment, and poor performance may affect future market behavior[15] - Newly listed stocks may experience significant price volatility due to limited liquidity[15]

Market Overview - The A-share market is experiencing a volume contraction and adjustment, with major indices showing mixed performance [1][4] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3820.09, down 0.30%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13070.86, down 0.04% [2] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors include coal (+1.97%), non-ferrous metals (+1.19%), and building materials (+1.05%) [3] - Conversely, the worst-performing sectors are automotive (-1.94%), pharmaceutical biology (-1.41%), and computer technology (-1.26%) [3] Concept Index Performance - The leading concept indices are photolithography (+2.09%), civil explosives (+1.70%), and lithium extraction from salt lakes (+1.10%) [3] - The lagging concept indices include reducers (-2.68%), PEEK materials (-2.65%), and humanoid robots (-2.17%) [3] Future Outlook - The market is expected to maintain a long-term upward momentum despite short-term volatility due to profit-taking [5] - The report suggests a flexible positioning strategy, avoiding high-risk investments while focusing on sectors with favorable valuation and growth prospects, such as non-ferrous metals, transportation, public utilities, banking, and TMT [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1][48]. Core Viewpoints - The newly released "New Energy Storage Scale Construction Special Action Plan (2025-2027)" aims for a national new energy storage installed capacity of over 180GW by 2027, driving direct investment of approximately 250 billion yuan, with lithium battery storage as the main technology route [3][44]. - The lithium battery index has shown significant growth, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 14.92 percentage points over the past two weeks, with a year-to-date increase of 46.60% [2][11]. - The overall demand for lithium batteries is rapidly increasing, with a notable recovery in net profits for the lithium battery industry chain, which grew by 30% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, marking a turning point after two years of decline [3][44]. Summary by Sections Market Review - As of September 18, 2025, the lithium battery index has increased by 17.97% in the last two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 14.92 percentage points [2][11]. - The lithium battery index has risen by 19.54% this month and 46.60% year-to-date [2][11]. Price Changes in the Lithium Battery Industry Chain - As of September 18, 2025, the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is 73,100 yuan/ton, down 2.14% over the past two weeks [3][24]. - The price of lithium hydroxide (LiOH 56.5%) is 71,600 yuan/ton, down 0.42% [3][24]. - The price of lithium iron phosphate remains stable at 34,300 yuan/ton, while NCM523, NCM622, and NCM811 have seen slight declines [3][26]. Industry News - The demand for new energy vehicles is expected to peak in September, with retail sales projected at around 1.25 million units, leading to a penetration rate of 58.1%, a historical high [3][39]. - Global battery production in August 2025 reached 198.42 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 50.31% [3][39]. - The solid-state battery industry is progressing towards commercialization, with companies like Panasonic and SK On making significant advancements in solid-state battery technology [3][40][42]. Company Announcements - Key companies to watch include CATL, which reported a revenue of 178.886 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.27% [3][45]. - Other notable companies include Yiwei Lithium Energy, which has launched a solid-state battery production base, and Enjie, which is focusing on solid-state battery materials [3][45].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the automotive industry, indicating an expectation that the industry index will outperform the market index by over 10% in the next six months [50]. Core Insights - The automotive sector has shown strong performance, with the Shenwan Automotive Index rising 9.38% over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 6.33 percentage points, ranking 4th among 31 industries [11][12]. - The report highlights a systematic policy support cycle for automotive manufacturers, which is expected to positively impact sales growth and investments in new models and technologies [46]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the recently issued "Automotive Industry Stabilization Growth Work Plan," which aims for total vehicle sales of 32.3 million units in 2025, a year-on-year increase of approximately 3%, and 15.5 million units of new energy vehicles, a year-on-year increase of about 20% [46]. Industry Data Tracking - In August, China's automotive production reached 2.815 million units, a year-on-year increase of 13.0% and a month-on-month increase of 8.6%. Sales were 2.857 million units, up 16.5% year-on-year and 10.2% month-on-month. Exports totaled 611,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 19.6% and a month-on-month increase of 6.3% [18][19]. - The automotive dealer inventory warning index stood at 57.0%, showing a year-on-year increase of 0.80 percentage points but a month-on-month decrease of 0.20 percentage points [18]. Industry News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is soliciting public opinions on safety standards for intelligent connected vehicles, which is expected to strengthen the safety baseline for the industry [26][28]. - The market for intelligent driving components and systems is projected to reach $100 billion by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan, with significant growth anticipated in the coming years [29]. - The report notes a decline in retail sales of passenger vehicles in early September, with a total of 732,000 units sold, a year-on-year decrease of 4% [30]. Corporate News - NIO has completed a $1.16 billion equity issuance, with proceeds intended for investment in core technologies for smart electric vehicles [36]. - Chery Automobile plans to open its IPO on September 17, targeting a valuation of HKD 140 billion [37]. - The report mentions the launch of the Xiangjie S9T, priced from 309,800 yuan, featuring advanced technology and a long range [38][39]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on manufacturers enhancing brand competitiveness through smart technology, such as BYD and Seres [46]. - It also highlights the potential for growth in the intelligent driving supply chain, recommending companies like Fuyao Glass and Junsheng Electronics [46]. - Additionally, it identifies Yutong Bus as a beneficiary of the "old-for-new" policy for new energy buses [46].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index experienced a fluctuation and consolidation this week, with trading volume consistently above 2 trillion, indicating active trading sentiment. The index fell by 1.30%, while the Shenzhen Component rose by 1.14%, the ChiNext Index increased by 2.34%, and the STAR Market 50 Index rose by 1.84. The North Exchange 50 Index decreased by 1.43% [1][3][8]. Economic Analysis - Economic data for August shows a continued weakening trend, with various indicators reflecting a slowdown. The industrial added value for August grew by 5.2% year-on-year, a slight decline of 0.5 percentage points from the previous value. Fixed asset investment from January to August increased by only 0.5% year-on-year, down 1.1 percentage points from the previous value [9][10]. - The fiscal revenue for August was 1.24 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 2.03%, but down 0.62 percentage points from the previous month. Tax revenue was 1.02 trillion, up 3.39% year-on-year, but also down 1.61 percentage points from the previous month. Non-tax revenue fell to 220.7 billion, marking a 3.79% decline, continuing a four-month streak of negative growth [10][11]. Federal Reserve Impact - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25%, aligning with market expectations. The Fed's decision is seen as a neutral signal, with expectations of two more rate cuts within the year. This move creates external space for monetary easing in China [3][11][14]. Sector Recommendations - It is recommended to focus on sectors such as public utilities, finance, electric equipment, non-ferrous metals, and TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) [4][15]. Stock Performance Tracking - The report includes a tracking of potential stocks for the month, highlighting companies like Xinhua Insurance, which closed at 45.05 with a maximum increase of 5.92%, and Xiamen Tungsten, which closed at 20.30 with a maximum increase of 3.48% [22][23]. Conclusion - Overall, the market is expected to continue its oscillating upward trend in the short term, despite the high-level fluctuations. The ongoing economic pressures and the need for policy support suggest a cautious but optimistic outlook for the capital market [3][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" investment rating for the consumer services industry, anticipating that the industry index will outperform the market index by over 10% in the next six months [30]. Core Views - The upcoming National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival are expected to significantly boost domestic travel demand, with long-distance travel bookings showing remarkable growth. Data indicates a 28% increase in average daily domestic flight bookings compared to the previous year, and a 16% increase for international routes [20][30]. - The consumer services industry index rose by 2.82% from September 5 to September 18, 2025, although it underperformed the CSI 300 index by approximately 0.22 percentage points during the same period [7][30]. - The report highlights that the tourism and hotel sectors continue to gain momentum, supported by favorable policies and increasing consumer confidence in travel [30]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The consumer services industry index increased by 2.82%, ranking fifteenth among all CITIC first-level industry indices, and lagging behind the CSI 300 index by about 0.22 percentage points [7]. - The sub-sectors of the consumer services industry showed mixed performance, with tourism and hotel sectors continuing their upward trend, while the comprehensive services sector slightly declined [8]. Key Industry News - Data from aviation travel platforms shows a significant increase in flight bookings for the upcoming holidays, with domestic flight bookings exceeding 5.93 million and international bookings over 1.4 million [20]. - A joint policy initiative from nine government departments aims to expand service consumption, proposing 19 specific measures to enhance service quality and stimulate demand [21]. - A strategic partnership between JD.com and Jinjiang Hotels was established to innovate dining and hospitality services, integrating AI-driven solutions [22]. Company Announcements - Notable companies in the consumer services sector include Yunnan Tourism, Xiyu Tourism, and Jinjiang Hotels, which have shown significant stock price increases during the reporting period [12]. - Jinjiang Hotels and other companies are positioned to benefit from the anticipated rise in travel demand during the holiday season [30][31].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the automotive industry [1] Core Insights - The automotive sector has shown strong performance, with the Shenwan Automotive Index rising 9.38% over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 6.33 percentage points [3][10] - The report highlights a systematic policy support cycle for automotive manufacturers, which is expected to positively impact sales growth and investment in new models and technologies [44] - The total vehicle sales target for 2025 is set at 32.3 million units, with a year-on-year growth of approximately 3%, while new energy vehicle sales are projected to reach 15.5 million units, reflecting a 20% increase [44] Industry Data Tracking - In August 2025, China's automotive production reached 2.815 million units, a year-on-year increase of 13.0%, and sales were 2.857 million units, up 16.5% year-on-year [17][19] - The automotive export volume was 611,000 units in August, marking a 19.6% year-on-year increase [17] - The dealer inventory warning index stood at 57.0%, indicating a year-on-year increase of 0.80 percentage points [17] Industry News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is soliciting opinions on safety standards for intelligent connected vehicles, which is expected to enhance safety in the industry [24][26] - The market for intelligent driving components and systems is projected to reach $100 billion by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan [27] - The report mentions a decline in retail sales of passenger vehicles in early September, with a total of 732,000 units sold, down 4% year-on-year [28] Corporate News - NIO has completed a $1.16 billion equity issuance, with proceeds aimed at investing in core technologies for smart electric vehicles [34] - Chery Automobile plans to open its IPO subscription on September 17, targeting a valuation of HKD 140 billion [35] - The launch of the Xiangjie S9T, starting at CNY 309,800, is noted, featuring advanced technology and a range of up to 801 km [36][37] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on manufacturers enhancing brand competitiveness through intelligent processes, such as BYD and Seres [44] - It also highlights the potential growth in the intelligent driving supply chain, recommending companies like Fuyao Glass and Joyson Electronics [44] - The report identifies Yutong Bus as a beneficiary of the "old-for-new" policy for new energy buses [44]