营收增长利润承压，旅游景区业绩稳健 [Table_ReportType] ——社会服务行业 2024 年业绩综述报告[Table_ReportDate] [投资要点： Table_Summary] 社会服务板块全年业绩增收不增利。2024 年上市公司业绩出炉，社会 服务板块增收不增利，营业收入合计 1907.95 亿元，同比增长 6.95%， 在申万一级行业中排名第 3；归母净利润合计 73.66 亿元，同比下降 31.26%，在申万一级行业中排名第 22。 旅游及景区板块：2024 年旅游及景区板块实现营收 354.23 亿元，同比 +15.24%，归母净利润 16.73 亿元，同比+7.19%。五一黄金周居民旅游 热情高涨，旅游市场持续回暖。调休工作日的减少使得更多游客选择拼 假开启早鸟游或节末错峰游，推动长线游目的地表现亮眼，各地创新和 丰富消费场景，以多元供给激发消费潜力、市场活力，为游客带来深度 体验。 3288 酒店餐饮板块：2024 年酒店餐饮板块实现营收 298.53 亿元，同比- 1.49%，归母净利润 15.67 亿元，同比-19.73%。消费承压导致板块业绩 出现波动，全年表现不佳。行业 ...

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "outperforming the market" with expectations of a relative increase in index performance over the next six months [38]. Core Insights - The total market value of public funds heavily invested in the SW power equipment industry decreased by 14.21% quarter-on-quarter to 276.57 billion yuan in Q1 2025, while showing a slight year-on-year increase of 3.05% [1][15]. - The overweight ratio for the industry has declined to 3.29%, down 1.60 percentage points quarter-on-quarter and 1.21 percentage points year-on-year [1][15]. - The SW power equipment industry ranks third among 31 Shenwan primary industries in terms of fund holding market value, following electronics and food and beverage [2][16]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The SW power equipment industry saw a quarter-on-quarter decrease in fund holding market value, with a total of 276.57 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a 14.21% decline [1][15]. - The industry’s overweight ratio is 3.29%, which is a decrease from previous quarters [1][15]. Subsector Analysis - The battery, photovoltaic equipment, and grid equipment sectors experienced a decline in fund holding values, while the wind power and motor sectors saw significant increases, with wind power holdings rising by 54.76% and motor holdings by 100.88% [21][22]. - The total market value for the wind power sector reached 89.75 billion yuan, while the motor sector reached 34.25 billion yuan in Q1 2025 [21][22]. Stock Trends - The top ten stocks in the SW power equipment industry include CATL, Sungrow, and Yiwei Lithium Energy, with varied performance; stocks like Keda and Deye saw significant gains, while JA Solar and Tongwei experienced notable declines [3][30]. - The top ten stocks that saw increased holdings include Zhenyu Technology and Longi Green Energy, while major reductions were observed in stocks like CATL and Sungrow [33][34]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading stocks in the lithium battery sector due to stable growth in new energy vehicle production, as well as on wind power equipment stocks supported by government initiatives [36]. - Emerging technologies such as AI and solid-state battery advancements are expected to drive demand in related sectors, presenting potential investment opportunities [36].

Core Viewpoints - The A-share market saw all three major indices rise on Monday, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.82%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.72%, and the ChiNext Index up 2.63%. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1,308.276 billion yuan. The leading sectors included defense and military, electric equipment, and machinery, while agriculture, pharmaceuticals, and public utilities lagged behind [2][7] - The Hang Seng Index rose by 2.98%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index increased by 5.16%. In overseas markets, the three major US indices also rose, with the Dow Jones up 2.81%, the S&P 500 up 3.26%, and the Nasdaq up 4.35% [2][7] Important News - The joint statement from the high-level China-US economic and trade talks indicated that both sides agreed to significantly reduce bilateral tariff levels, with the US canceling 91% of additional tariffs and China reciprocating with a similar cancellation. Both sides will establish mechanisms for ongoing consultations regarding economic and trade relations [8] - According to the China Automobile Industry Association, in April, China's automobile production and sales reached 2.619 million and 2.59 million units, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 8.9% and 9.8%. New energy vehicle production and sales reached 1.251 million and 1.226 million units, with year-on-year growth of 43.8% and 44.2% [3][8] Industry Analysis - The SW Electronics industry is projected to achieve operating revenue of 3,329.907 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.90%. The gross profit margin is expected to be 15.47%, a slight decline of 0.31 percentage points, primarily due to raw material cost pressures. The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 129.296 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.07%, indicating improved profitability [9] - In Q1 2025, the SW Electronics industry is expected to achieve revenue of 823.831 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 17.98%, and a net profit of 34.263 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 29.58% [9] - The semiconductor sector is anticipated to recover in 2024, with Q1 2025 continuing this upward trend. The integrated circuit manufacturing and analog chip design sub-sectors are expected to return to profitability, driven by terminal recovery, AI computing power construction, and self-control demand [9][10]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperform" compared to the market, indicating an expected increase in the industry index relative to the broader market by over 10% in the next six months [4][50]. Core Insights - In 2024, the SW electronics industry is projected to achieve operating revenue of CNY 3,329.907 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.90%. The gross margin is expected to be 15.47%, a slight decline of 0.31 percentage points, primarily due to raw material cost pressures. The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be CNY 129.296 billion, a significant increase of 43.07% year-on-year, indicating improved profitability [1][13]. - For Q1 2025, the industry is expected to generate revenue of CNY 823.831 billion, a year-on-year increase of 17.98%, with a net profit of CNY 34.263 billion, up 29.58% year-on-year, marking the highest growth in nearly three years for Q1 [1][19]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance - The SW electronics industry is experiencing a recovery in performance, with 2024 showing a significant improvement in revenue and net profit. The overall expense ratio has decreased, indicating better cost control [1][13]. - Q1 2025 marks a new high for both revenue and net profit, with double-digit year-on-year growth [1][19]. 2. Subsector Analysis - **Semiconductors**: The sector is expected to see a recovery in 2024, with Q1 2025 continuing this trend. Key subsectors like integrated circuit manufacturing and analog chip design have returned to profitability, driven by demand from terminal recovery and AI computing [2][20]. - **Consumer Electronics**: Performance is mixed, with revenue growth outpacing profit growth due to raw material cost pressures. New product launches and promotional events are expected to boost demand [2][24]. - **Optoelectronics**: The panel sector has turned profitable due to improved supply dynamics, while the optical components sector continues to grow, reflecting overall recovery [2][29]. - **Components**: The sector benefits from the high demand in the AI computing supply chain, with significant growth in revenue and profit expected [3][34]. - **Electronic Chemicals**: Steady revenue growth is anticipated, with improved profitability in Q1 2025 due to the semiconductor industry's recovery [3][40]. - **Other Electronics**: This sector shows revenue growth, but profit growth lags behind, indicating potential cost pressures [3][46]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The SW electronics industry is expected to achieve overall year-on-year growth in 2024 and Q1 2025, with varying performance across subsectors. Key areas to watch include digital chip design, advanced packaging, and PCB sectors, which are showing signs of improved profitability [3][46].

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperform" compared to the market, indicating a potential increase of over 10% relative to the market index in the next six months [4][50]. Core Insights - In 2024, the SW electronics industry is expected to achieve a revenue of CNY 3,329.907 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.90%. The gross margin is projected to be 15.47%, a slight decline of 0.31 percentage points, primarily due to raw material cost pressures. The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be CNY 129.296 billion, a significant increase of 43.07% year-on-year, indicating improved profitability [1][13]. - In Q1 2025, the industry is anticipated to generate revenue of CNY 823.831 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 17.98%, and a net profit of CNY 34.263 billion, reflecting a 29.58% increase year-on-year, marking the highest growth in nearly three years for Q1 [1][19]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance - The SW electronics industry is experiencing a recovery in performance, with 2024 showing a significant improvement in revenue and net profit. The overall expense ratio has decreased, indicating better cost control [1][13]. - Q1 2025 has set new records for revenue and net profit, both achieving double-digit year-on-year growth [1][19]. 2. Subsector Analysis - **Semiconductors**: The sector is expected to recover in 2024, with Q1 2025 continuing this upward trend. Key subsectors like integrated circuit manufacturing and analog chip design have returned to profitability, driven by demand from terminal recovery and AI computing [2][20]. - **Consumer Electronics**: Performance is mixed, with revenue growth outpacing profit growth due to raw material cost pressures. New product launches and promotional events are expected to boost demand [2][24]. - **Optoelectronics**: The panel sector has returned to profitability, aided by improved supply dynamics and production strategies. All subsectors showed revenue growth in Q1 2025, reflecting overall recovery [2][29]. - **Components**: The sector benefits from the high demand in the AI computing supply chain, with significant revenue and profit growth in Q1 2025 [3][34]. - **Electronic Chemicals**: This sector has shown steady revenue growth, with improved profitability in Q1 2025 due to the overall recovery in the semiconductor industry [3][40]. - **Other Electronics**: This sector's performance has improved, but profit growth has lagged behind revenue growth due to cost pressures [3][46]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The SW electronics industry is expected to see overall growth in 2024 and Q1 2025, with varying performance across subsectors. Key areas to watch include digital chip design, advanced packaging, and PCB sectors, which are showing signs of improved profitability [3][46].

Core Views - The A-share market experienced a collective decline on Friday, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.3%, the Shenzhen Component down 0.69%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.87. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 11,918.86 billion [2][7] - In terms of industry performance, beauty care, banking, and textile and apparel sectors led the gains, while electronics, computers, and defense industries faced declines. Concept sectors such as ST stocks, fentanyl, and sugar substitutes saw significant increases, while sectors like Sci-Tech innovation new stocks, storage chips, and DRG/DIP concepts faced declines [2][7] - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.4%, while the Hang Seng Technology Index fell by 0.93%. In overseas markets, the Dow Jones fell by 0.29%, the S&P 500 decreased by 0.07%, and the Nasdaq remained unchanged [2][7] Important News - The high-level China-U.S. economic and trade talks held in Geneva from May 10 to 11 were described as candid, in-depth, and constructive, achieving important consensus and substantial progress. Both sides agreed to establish a consultation mechanism for economic and trade discussions [3][8] - The National Bureau of Statistics released April CPI and PPI data, indicating that the CPI rose by 0.1% month-on-month after a 0.4% decline in the previous month, while the year-on-year decline remained at 0.1%. The core CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.5% year-on-year. The PPI fell by 0.4% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year, with the year-on-year decline widening by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month [3][8] Industry Analysis - The pharmaceutical sector has shown a divergence in performance since the beginning of the year, with the overall performance of various sub-sectors under pressure. Focus is on structural opportunities in the pharmaceutical sector, particularly in innovation, overseas expansion, and self-sufficiency [9] - The pharmaceutical index has outperformed the CSI 300 index by 3.76 percentage points, with the pharmaceutical sub-sectors showing varied performance. The chemical preparation sub-sector has increased by 8.90%, while medical services and pharmaceutical commerce have seen increases of 2.79% and 0.41%, respectively [10] - The overall revenue and net profit of the pharmaceutical sector are expected to decline in 2024 and Q1 2025, with several sub-sectors experiencing pressure on profit margins. However, the medical research outsourcing sector showed promising growth in Q1 2025 [11][12] Investment Recommendations - The pharmaceutical sector is expected to face overall revenue and net profit declines in 2024 and Q1 2025, with a focus on sub-sectors that show revenue growth, such as medical research outsourcing and hospitals. The chemical pharmaceutical sector has performed well in the secondary market, with attention on innovation-driven, domestic substitution, and policy immunity themes [13] - In the electronics sector, the SW electronics industry saw an increase in fund heavy positions in Q1 2025, with a focus on semiconductor self-sufficiency and AI computing applications. The top ten heavy stocks are primarily from the semiconductor and consumer electronics sectors, indicating institutional interest in self-sufficient semiconductor stocks [14][15] - Investment opportunities are highlighted in semiconductor self-sufficiency, AI computing, and AI edge applications, with a recommendation to focus on domestic semiconductor manufacturers and the growing demand for domestic computing capabilities [16]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperforming the Market" with an expected relative increase of over 10% compared to the market index in the next six months [5][39]. Core Insights - In Q1 2025, the SW Electronics industry saw an increase in fund heavy positions, with a heavy position ratio of 17.03%, up by 0.10 percentage points quarter-on-quarter and 4.95 percentage points year-on-year [1][13]. - The top ten heavy stocks are predominantly in the semiconductor sector, indicating a strong institutional focus on self-controllable semiconductor companies [2][17]. - The semiconductor sector's overweight ratio has been rising for three consecutive quarters, reaching 7.83% [3][29]. Summary by Sections Fund Heavy Positions and Overweight Ratios - The SW Electronics industry had a matching ratio of 9.09% in Q1 2025, which is at a historically high level, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.24 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 1.70 percentage points [1][13]. - The overweight ratio for the SW Electronics industry in Q1 2025 was 7.94%, showing a slight decrease of 0.15 percentage points quarter-on-quarter but an increase of 3.25 percentage points year-on-year [1][13]. Top Heavy Stocks - The top ten heavy stocks in Q1 2025 are all from the semiconductor and consumer electronics sectors, with semiconductor stocks making up 90% of the list, highlighting the focus on self-controllable semiconductor companies [2][17]. - The top ten heavy stocks include SMIC, Cambricon, and others, with significant price movements, such as Chipone's stock increasing by 102.17% [2][17]. Institutional Focus Areas - Institutions are particularly focused on self-controllable semiconductors, AI computing power, and edge applications, with the top ten stocks showing a strong presence in these areas [2][22]. - The top ten stocks that saw increased holdings include Chipone, Lattice Technology, and others, with a notable emphasis on AI computing and edge applications [22][24]. Sector Overweight Ratios - The semiconductor sector continues to be overweight, with a ratio of 24.61% when considering the SW Electronics industry as the denominator, reflecting a significant increase of 2.65 percentage points [29][31]. Diversification in Fund Holdings - The concentration of fund heavy positions has decreased, indicating a trend towards diversification, with the top five, ten, and twenty stocks accounting for 39.50%, 57.89%, and 72.46% of the total fund heavy positions, respectively [3][33].

市 场 研 究 [Table_Title] 万联晨会 [Table_MeetReportDate] 2025 年 05 月 09 日 星期五 研报精选 "五一"旅游市场平稳增长，长线游与入境游表现亮眼 家电行业 25Q1 基金持仓跟踪报告 交运行业 25Q1 公募基金持仓跟踪报告 | [Table_InnerMarketIndex] 国内市场表现 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 收盘 | 涨跌幅% | | 上证指数 | 3,352.00 | 0.28% | | 深证成指 | 10,197.66 | 0.93% | | 沪深 300 | 3,852.90 | 0.56% | | 科创 50 | 1,026.44 | -0.36% | | 创业板指 | 2,029.45 | 1.65% | | 上证 50 | 2,679.51 | 0.33% | | 上证 180 | 8,546.20 | 0.14% | | 上证基金 | 6,902.65 | 0.35% | | 国债指数 | 224.77 | 0.05% | | [Table_InterIndex] | 国际市场表现 | ...

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperforming the Market" with an expected relative increase of over 10% in the industry index compared to the broader market within the next six months [5][32]. Core Insights - The transportation industry has seen a continuous decline in public fund holdings for three consecutive quarters, indicating a low allocation status. As of Q1 2025, the total market value of public fund holdings in the SW transportation industry was 42.588 billion, down 15.3% from Q4 2024, and accounted for 1.41% of the total market value of public fund holdings in A-shares, which is below the benchmark allocation by 2.07 percentage points [2][11]. - The report highlights that all sub-sectors within the transportation industry experienced reductions in holdings, with defensive sectors like road and rail potentially gaining favor due to tariff war disturbances, while cyclical sectors like aviation may continue to recover and exceed expectations due to ongoing domestic demand expansion policies [1][3][30]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry: Decline in Heavyweight Allocation - The total market value of public fund holdings in the SW transportation industry as of Q1 2025 was 42.588 billion, reflecting a 15.3% decrease from Q4 2024. This represents a continuous decline over three quarters [2][11]. 2. Stocks: General Reduction Across Sub-sectors - All sub-sectors faced reductions, with specific impacts noted: - **Logistics**: Major reductions in cross-border logistics stocks, while some stocks like China Foreign Trade and JD Logistics saw increases [3][22]. - **Shipping and Ports**: Most stocks in the port sector were reduced, with only a few like Beibu Gulf Port seeing increases [3][22]. - **Rail and Road**: Mixed performance with some highway stocks like Guangdong Expressway A seeing increases, while others faced reductions [3][22]. - **Aviation**: Stocks like China Southern Airlines and China Eastern Airlines saw increases, while others faced significant reductions [3][22]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that while the transportation industry is currently underweighted, the defensive attributes of road and rail sectors may attract interest amidst tariff uncertainties. Conversely, the aviation sector may benefit from domestic demand policies, suggesting a potential for recovery and exceeding expectations [1][30].

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperforming the Market," indicating an expected increase of over 10% in the industry index relative to the broader market within the next six months [3][17]. Core Insights - The tourism market is experiencing steady growth, with domestic travel reaching 314 million trips during the "May Day" holiday, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%. Total spending by domestic tourists amounted to 180.27 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.0% increase [2][8]. - Long-distance travel destinations are gaining popularity, with ticket sales in regions like Qinghai, Xinjiang, Ningxia, and Gansu showing a significant year-on-year increase of 100% to 200%. The inbound tourism market is also rebounding strongly, with a 130% year-on-year surge in inbound travel orders [2][12]. - The introduction of policies such as a 240-hour visa-free stay and the "immediate refund" tax policy is driving an increase in inbound tourist numbers [10][15]. Summary by Sections 1. Steady Growth in the Tourism Market - The tourism market is maintaining steady growth, with a total of 314 million domestic trips taken during the "May Day" holiday, a 6.4% increase from the previous year. Domestic tourist spending reached 180.27 billion yuan, up 8.0% year-on-year [2][8]. 2. Rise of Long-Distance Travel Destinations - The reduction in working days has led to more tourists opting for early bird or staggered trips, significantly boosting long-distance travel destinations. Ticket sales in regions like Qinghai, Xinjiang, Ningxia, and Gansu have seen a year-on-year increase of 100% to 200% [12][14]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on scenic spots and performance companies that demonstrate stable operating performance and effectively meet personalized and diversified demands [15].