行业研究|可选消费 证券研究报告 IP 衍生品：情绪消费崛起，消费中优选赛道 情绪消费崛起叠加国产 IP 崛起和终端零售渠道供需双向拉动，IP 衍 生品经济迎来繁荣。"谷子"、集换式卡牌、IP 拼搭玩具、毛绒等多个 IP 衍生品细分赛道高增长。同时海外市场打开更广阔空间，产业链上 中下游均有望受益，上游 IP 方面重点关注上海电影、光线传媒、阿里 影业、中文在线，中游重点关注泡泡玛特、布鲁可、姚记科技、奥飞 娱乐等。下游重点关注：名创优品。 风险提示 下游需求不及预期的风险，贸易摩擦的风险，地缘政治的风险，行业 竞争加剧的风险 可选消费行业策略报告 2025 年 03 月 02 日 [Table_Title] 关注情绪消费与国货崛起，精选细分品类 ——2025 年零售与社服行业年度策略报告 [Table_Summary] 报告要点： 化妆品：国货占比持续提升，成分认知带动产品销量 2024 年化妆品市场承压，全年小幅下滑，25 年价格是否企稳值得关 注。产品及研发端，2024 年 1-11 月已备案化妆品新原料达到了 79 款，高于 2023 年全年 69 款，其中国产化妆新原料备案数量达 65 个， 成分认 ...

Stock Recommendations - 崇德科技 (301548.SZ) is a leading enterprise in sliding bearings, expected to benefit from demand in nuclear power and wind power industries, with EPS projected to grow from 1.16 in 2023 to 1.93 in 2025[22] - 金山办公 (688111.SH) is expanding its AI capabilities in both consumer and business sectors, with EPS forecasted to increase from 2.85 in 2023 to 3.96 in 2025[22] - 爱柯迪 (600933.SH) is a leader in lightweight T-chain technology entering the robotics sector, with a low current valuation and EPS expected to rise from 1.15 in 2023 to 1.65 in 2025[22] - 三鑫医疗 (300453.SZ) is seeing increased demand for dialysis products, with EPS projected to grow from 0.40 in 2023 to 0.51 in 2025[22] - 北方稀土 (600111.SH) is positioned to benefit from improved supply-demand dynamics in the rare earth sector, with EPS expected to increase from 0.66 in 2023 to 0.74 in 2025[22] - 中兴通讯 (000063.SZ) is set to gain from the deepening of AI deployment in China, with EPS forecasted to grow from 1.95 in 2023 to 2.12 in 2025[22] - 恺英网络 (002517.SZ) has strong product development capabilities, with EPS expected to rise from 0.68 in 2023 to 0.99 in 2025[22] - 巨子生物 (2367.HK) is focusing on collagen products, with EPS projected to grow from 1.40 in 2023 to 2.35 in 2025[22] Market Performance - The 国元金股组合 achieved a weighted return of 2.75% in February, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index which rose by 2.16%[14] - 富国中证大数据产业 ETF (515400.SH) performed well, increasing by 20.27% in February[14] - The largest market cap among the recommended stocks is 中兴通讯 at 1761.47 billion RMB, followed by 金山办公 at 1601.73 billion RMB[19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hikvision, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% compared to the benchmark index [4][6]. Core Views - Hikvision achieved stable revenue growth in 2024, with total revenue reaching 92.486 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.52%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 15.23% to 11.959 billion yuan [1][4]. - The company is focusing on technological innovation and operational efficiency to drive steady business development, despite a decline in domestic business growth and steady growth in overseas markets [1][4]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, Hikvision's revenue was 92.486 billion yuan, up 3.52% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 11.959 billion yuan, down 15.23% year-on-year. The non-recurring net profit was 11.798 billion yuan, a decrease of 13.68% year-on-year [1][4]. - The company forecasts revenue for 2025 and 2026 to be 100.315 billion yuan and 107.582 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits projected at 13.658 billion yuan and 14.834 billion yuan [4][8]. Technological Advancements - Hikvision is leveraging its long-term experience in the security field to integrate self-developed multimodal large models with intelligent computing hardware, enhancing product capabilities in intelligent computing, storage, and search applications [2]. - The company has launched a series of products based on its GuoLan large model technology, which significantly improves the efficiency of security management across various industries [2]. Strategic Partnerships - Hikvision has partnered with China Telecom to promote digital transformation across various sectors, focusing on smart products and AI applications [3]. - The collaboration aims to leverage Hikvision's core technology in smart IoT to enhance resource sharing and mutual development in the digitalization of industries [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hikvision, indicating an expectation of stock price appreciation exceeding 15% relative to the benchmark index [4][6]. Core Insights - Hikvision achieved a stable revenue growth of 3.52% year-on-year, with total revenue reaching 92.486 billion yuan in 2024. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 15.23% to 11.959 billion yuan [1][4]. - The company is focusing on AI technology and has launched a series of products based on its proprietary multimodal large model technology, enhancing its offerings in intelligent computing and storage [2]. - A partnership with China Telecom aims to drive digital transformation across various industries, leveraging Hikvision's technological strengths in smart IoT and AI applications [3]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are adjusted to 92.486 billion, 100.315 billion, and 107.582 billion yuan, respectively. The net profit forecasts are set at 11.959 billion, 13.658 billion, and 14.833 billion yuan for the same period [4][8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 1.30, 1.48, and 1.61 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 24.59, 21.53, and 19.82 [4][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the media industry [5] Core Insights - The media industry experienced a decline of 1.80% in the week of February 17-23, 2025, ranking 30th among sub-industries, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.97% [12][18] - Tencent's AI assistant "Tencent Yuanbao" saw a significant increase in downloads, reaching the second position in the iOS free app rankings, driven by its integration with the DeepSeek model [22][57] - The Chinese gaming market reported actual sales revenue of 310.77 billion yuan in January 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 27.65%, with mobile games contributing 229.70 billion yuan, up 29.87% [25][28] - The domestic box office for the week was 20.47 billion yuan, with "Nezha: The Devil's Child" leading the box office, surpassing 137.32 billion yuan in total earnings, ranking 8th in global box office history [39][41] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The media industry saw a weekly decline of 1.80%, with only the gaming II sector showing an increase of 3.57% [12][18] - The film and advertising sectors experienced declines of 10.86% and 3.41%, respectively [12] Key Industry Data AI Applications - Tencent Yuanbao's downloads surged to 126.2 million, a week-on-week increase of 983.8% [22] - DeepSeek maintained high download levels, with 2.1 million downloads in the latest week [22] Gaming Data - The gaming market's actual sales revenue reached 310.77 billion yuan in January 2025, with mobile games accounting for 229.70 billion yuan [25][28] Film Data - The total box office for the week was 20.47 billion yuan, with "Nezha: The Devil's Child" leading [39][41] Advertising Data - The advertising market in 2024 saw a 1.6% year-on-year increase, with significant growth in sectors like clothing and telecommunications [45][52] Key Events and Announcements - Tencent integrated multiple products with the DeepSeek-R1 model, enhancing user experience [57] - The launch of "Dragon Valley World" mobile game topped the iOS free app chart on its first day [59]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the industry [5] Core Insights - The computer industry index rose by 3.17% during the week of February 17-21, 2025, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which increased by 0.97% [10] - The DeepSeek app achieved a daily active user count of 46.84 million within a month of its launch, while ChatGPT reached 119.80 million daily active users [2] - The report highlights the significant investment in AI infrastructure by major players like Alibaba Cloud, which is expected to benefit companies within its ecosystem [3][23] Market Performance - The IT Services II, Software Development, and Computer Equipment sectors saw increases of 3.90%, 2.36%, and 3.61% respectively, indicating a positive trend across the board [12] - Notable individual stock performances included Donghua Software (48.88%), Hongjing Technology (36.31%), and Suochen Technology (31.62%) [12] Industry Data - DeepSeek's app daily active users were reported at 37.61 million on the app side, down from a peak of 41.79 million, while its web version had 9.23 million daily active users, also down from a peak of 24.77 million [16] Major Events - DeepSeek announced an "Open Source Week" to share five code repositories, enhancing transparency and collaboration with the developer community [18][23] - The launch of new AI models and technologies, such as Figure AI's Helix model and xAI's Grok-3, indicates ongoing innovation in the AI space [18][19] Earnings Outlook - Hikvision reported total revenue of approximately 92.49 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.52%, while net profit decreased by 15.23% [22] - Yoche Technology's revenue fell by 19.16% year-on-year, indicating challenges in the current market environment [22]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the benchmark index by more than 10% [6]. Core Insights - The food and beverage industry in A-shares saw a 2.43% increase over the past two weeks, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.15 percentage points but underperforming the Shenzhen Component Index by 1.50 percentage points [11]. - Key segments such as other alcoholic beverages (+4.40%), liquor (+2.76%), and dairy products (+2.01%) showed strong performance, while soft drinks (-1.34%), snacks (-1.08%), and fermented seasoning products (-0.89%) experienced declines [11]. - Notable individual stock performances included Rock Shares (+25.86%), Zhuangyuan Pasture (+14.12%), and Jiahe Foods (+11.40%), while brands like Good Products Store (-8.86%), Ganyuan Foods (-8.79%), and Three Squirrels (-7.67%) faced significant drops [11]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The A-share food and beverage industry rose by 2.43% from February 10 to February 21, 2025, while year-to-date, it has decreased by 4.67% [11]. - The report highlights the performance of various sub-sectors and individual stocks within the food and beverage industry [11]. Key Data Tracking - The report provides critical pricing data for various products, including: - The price of Feitian Moutai was reported at 2,240 RMB for original boxes and 2,190 RMB for loose packaging, reflecting a decrease of 45 RMB and 40 RMB respectively compared to two weeks prior [25]. - The average price of fresh milk in major production areas was 3.11 RMB/kg, down 14.1% year-on-year [34]. - The national market price for pork was 27.58 RMB/kg, up 6.7% year-on-year [38]. Policy and News Tracking - A joint announcement from five departments emphasized boosting consumption through a three-year action plan (2025-2027) focusing on quality and brand building in various sectors, including food [51]. - The report notes that the revenue from the sauce liquor industry is projected to reach 240 billion RMB in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 4% [51]. - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs is guiding adjustments in livestock production to stabilize capacity and promote balance between supply and demand [51]. Investment Recommendations - For the liquor sector, despite being in a period of inventory digestion, the report suggests focusing on high-end liquor companies like Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao, as they have gained valuable experience from previous cycles [54]. - In the consumer goods sector, the report emphasizes the importance of essential consumption and recommends companies such as Yili, New Dairy, Dongpeng Beverage, and Haitian Flavoring [54].

- The report primarily focuses on market liquidity, investor behavior, and fund flows, with no explicit mention of quantitative models or factors for analysis [3][5][6] - The data includes metrics such as market valuation ratios (e.g., PE, PB), trading activity (e.g., turnover rates), and fund flows (e.g., ETF inflows/outflows, financing balances), but these are descriptive statistics rather than constructed quantitative factors or models [12][15][47] - The report highlights external influences like foreign capital flows, AH premium trends, and macroeconomic indicators (e.g., US-China interest rate spreads), but these are not tied to specific quantitative factor construction or model testing [50][56][70]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the semiconductor and semiconductor production equipment industry [4]. Core Insights - The overseas AI chip index decreased by 3.6% this week, influenced by Nvidia's stock price adjustment due to US tariff expectations, while domestic AI chip index rose by 12.3% driven by Alibaba's impact on computing power and expectations of increased regulation on domestic chips [1][9]. - The Nvidia mapping index increased by 7.4%, indicating a rise in capital expenditure from major CSP manufacturers, which supports the logic of continued investment in computing power [1][10]. - The server ODM index rose by 5.5%, reflecting enhanced expectations for Nvidia's Blackwell cabinet shipments and a valuation recovery in the server ODM sector [1][10]. - The storage chip index increased by 9.0%, driven by significant growth in humanoid robots, autonomous driving, and consumer AI sectors [1][12]. - The power semiconductor index rose by 4.5%, with the domestic A-share fruit chain index increasing by 5.2% [1][12]. Industry Data Summary - Global wafer manufacturing is expected to grow by 7% in 2025, with advanced node capacity (below 20nm) projected to increase by 12% and average capacity utilization expected to remain above 90% [2][21]. - SEMI forecasts global semiconductor equipment revenue to reach $112.83 billion in 2024, with further increases to $121.47 billion and $139.42 billion in 2025 and 2026, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 7.66% and 14.78% [2][21]. - The global AI glasses market is projected to see significant growth, with sales expected to reach 3.5 million units by 2025 [2][23]. Major Events Summary - ADI reported FY25Q1 revenue of $2.42 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 4%, with guidance for FY25Q2 revenue between $2.4 billion and $2.6 billion [3][28]. - Hon Hai's cloud computing business is expected to grow over 50% year-on-year in 2024, with AI server revenue increasing by over 150% [3][28]. - Alibaba's capital expenditure reached 31.8 billion yuan in Q4 2024, an 80% increase quarter-on-quarter, focusing on cloud and AI infrastructure [3][29]. - Apple launched the iPhone 16e, featuring the A18 chip, with a starting price of 4,499 yuan [3][29].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the telecommunications and electronics industry, considering the sustained high prosperity of the sector driven by AI, 5.5G, and satellite communications [2][6]. Core Insights - The overall market performance shows that the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.97%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 2.25%, and the ChiNext Index grew by 2.99% during the week of February 17-21, 2025. The telecommunications sector, represented by the Shenwan Communications Index, saw an increase of 8.09% [2][11]. - Within the telecommunications sub-sectors, the highest increase was observed in communication application value-added services, which rose by 12.24%, while communication terminals and accessories had the lowest increase at 2.19% [2][14]. - Notable individual stock performances included AoFei Data with a rise of 42.77%, Century Hengtong at 28.49%, and Runjian Co. at 23.98% [2][16]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The telecommunications sector is experiencing a high level of prosperity, with significant contributions from AI, 5.5G, and satellite communications [2]. - The report highlights a strong performance in the telecommunications index, with an 8.09% increase during the specified week [11]. Sub-sector Performance - The communication application value-added services sub-sector led the gains with a 12.24% increase, while communication terminals and accessories lagged with a 2.19% increase [14][15]. Company Highlights - Alibaba's capital expenditure surged to 31.775 billion RMB, marking an 80% increase quarter-on-quarter, indicating a strong focus on AI infrastructure investment [4]. - The report suggests monitoring opportunities in the computing power supply chain and satellite internet sectors, recommending specific stocks such as Zhongji Xuchuang and HaiGe Communication [4]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates continued growth in the telecommunications sector, driven by advancements in AI and cloud infrastructure, with Alibaba planning to invest more in these areas over the next three years than in the past decade combined [4].