Market Sentiment - The current market sentiment score is 33, indicating a "cold" market environment. Historical trends suggest that when the sentiment score is below or around 30, the market tends to find support, while scores above 90 may indicate resistance [6][10]. Hot Themes Tracking - **Storage Theme**: Major manufacturers are phasing out DDR4, with Micron confirming a halt in shipments over the next 2-3 quarters. In May, DDR4 prices surged by 53%, the highest increase since 2017. Related stocks include Jiangbolong (301308) and Zhaoyi Innovation (603586) [7]. - **Robotics Theme**: A new lower limb rehabilitation exoskeleton robot developed by the Shenyang Institute of Automation aims to assist patients with lower limb paralysis. This technology has shown effectiveness in achieving key rehabilitation goals. Related stocks include Zhenjiang Co. (603507) and Everbright Tongchuang (301387) [7]. - **Stablecoin Theme**: The Governor of the People's Bank of China discussed the transformation of monetary policy frameworks and the rise of digital currency stablecoins at the Lujiazui Forum. This development is reshaping traditional payment systems and poses challenges for financial regulation. Related stocks include Sifang Jingchuang (300468) and Jingbeifang (002987) [7]. Capital Flow Analysis - The top ten stocks with the highest net inflow include C Xinhenghui (49,492.23 million), Qiangli New Materials (46,294.02 million), and Chuanrun Co. (37,280.46 million) [11]. - The top ten stocks with the highest net outflow include Shenghong Technology (-53,587.46 million), Zhongwen Online (-45,463.41 million), and Ningde Times (-43,949.98 million) [13]. - The top ten industries with the highest net inflow include SW Medical Biology (77,676 million) and SW Food and Beverage (73,440 million), while SW Nonferrous Metals and SW Electric Equipment show significant outflows [17][18]. Investment Strategy Recommendations - In a "cold" market, it is advisable to seek value investment opportunities while maintaining risk control. In a "cool" market, cautious operations are recommended, focusing on fundamentally sound stocks and avoiding high-risk investments [22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the pharmaceutical industry [1] Core Insights - The trend of innovation going overseas remains unchanged, with significant business development (BD) opportunities expected to continue driving valuation increases [2] - The market for gout and hyperuricemia treatment presents substantial potential, with a growing patient population in China and globally [4] - The dual antibody and antibody-drug conjugate (ADC) sectors in tumor immunotherapy are anticipated to yield groundbreaking products [6] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Trends - The value reassessment of innovative drugs is significantly driven by overseas business development, particularly for PD-1/VEGF dual antibodies, with transaction values rapidly increasing [2] - In Q1 2025, the number of pharmaceutical transactions in China rose by 34% year-on-year, while total transaction value surged by 222% [2] 2. Market Opportunities - The American Diabetes Association (ADA) conference highlighted the focus on GLP-1 drugs, with several domestic companies showcasing their research [3] - The potential market for gout treatment is vast, with an estimated 1.7 billion patients globally by 2030, and current treatments showing poor adherence and efficacy [4] 3. Clinical Developments - Significant clinical data from the ADA conference is expected to influence the weight loss drug market, with partnerships and new drug developments being announced [3] - The report notes that several innovative drugs targeting gout are entering critical clinical phases, with promising results from recent studies [4] 4. Stock Recommendations - The report recommends stocks in various sectors, including: - **Weight Loss and GLP-1 Drugs**: Recommended companies include Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical and others [7] - **Gout Treatment**: Recommended companies include Changchun High-tech and Yipin Pharmaceutical [9] - **Tumor Immunotherapy**: Companies like Fuhong Hanlin and Innovent Biologics are highlighted for their advancements in PD-1 dual antibodies and ADCs [9] 5. Company Performance Forecast - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) forecasts and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for several companies, indicating a positive outlook for firms like Yuyue Medical and others [10]

2025 年 06 月 22 日 先为不败再为胜 | 分析师：吕思江 | S1050522030001 | | --- | --- | | lvsj@cfsc.com.cn | | | 分析师：马晨 | S1050522050001 | | machen@cfsc.com.cn | | 相关研究 3、《港股交投情绪低迷， 推荐关注豆粕 ETF》2025-01-13 —定量策略周观点总第 168 周 投资要点 ▌本周建议一览 核心观点：上周仓位择时中，我们将美股、A 股、港股均 降为较低仓位。本周如期调整，更多理解为借事件扰动的 盈利兑现。先控制仓位，寻找中报基本面可能向好、底部 调整充分、拥挤度较低的板块，保证组合"不败"；再于 合适时间寻找进攻机会，寻求"胜利"。大类资产中，增 加长债和欧股、日股仓位。 美股：联储流动性方面小幅回落；降息预期方面， FOMC 没给市场提前交易降息的契机，第一次降息预期仍在 9 月。美股资金流向中，跨境资金本周流入较多，对冲基金 仓位仍保持多头买入但力度继续下行。板块中生物医药转 为空头信号，TMT、AI、金融、能源为多头信号。 日股：日本 5 月份全国新核心 CPI（不包括 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the coming year [9]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated strong revenue growth, with total operating income reaching 1.293 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 19.45%, and a net profit of 141 million yuan, up 6.45% [4]. - The launch of Nintendo's Switch 2 has exceeded expectations, with sales surpassing 3.5 million units within four days, indicating a strong market demand [5]. - The company is actively pursuing a globalization strategy to mitigate domestic price competition, achieving foreign sales of 364 million yuan, a growth of 25.09% [4]. - The demand for high-end PCB products is expected to rise due to the increasing need for computing power driven by AI applications, positioning the company favorably in this emerging market [6][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total operating revenue of 1.293 billion yuan and a net profit of 141 million yuan, with respective growth rates of 19.45% and 6.45% [4]. - The forecast for 2025-2027 indicates revenues of 1.854 billion yuan, 2.105 billion yuan, and 2.341 billion yuan, with EPS projected at 1.44 yuan, 1.71 yuan, and 1.96 yuan respectively [9][11]. Market Opportunities - The Switch 2's first-year sales are projected to reach 20 million units, which will benefit the company's PCB supply chain involvement [5]. - The company plans to invest 135 million yuan in a high-density interconnect (HDI) production technology upgrade project, expected to enhance its capabilities in high-end PCB manufacturing by Q1 2026 [8]. Competitive Positioning - The company is positioned to benefit from the growing demand for high-end PCBs in AI-related applications, with plans to expand its product offerings in this sector [6][9]. - The report highlights the company's strategic focus on enhancing its product penetration in emerging fields, particularly in AI computing infrastructure [8].

证 券 研 究 报 告 金融工程周报 首批10只科创债ETF上报， 推荐关注半导体ETF 2025年06月22日 n 分析师：吕思江 n 联系人：刘新源 n SAC编号：S1050522030001 n SAC编号：S1050123100011 n 联系人：武文静 n SAC编号：S1050123070007 市场观点和ETF交易机会 PAGE 2 诚信、专业、稳健、高效 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明 p 【国内市场跟踪】本周市场成交1.22万亿，中东冲突升级叠加陆家嘴金融会议无超预期政策下，市场情绪 回落，小微盘展开调整，中证2000及北证50跌幅靠前，小盘交投热度降温，拥挤度下行至正常区间。前 期主线消费及医药跌幅较大，港股创新药本周大跌-8.55%，风格再度回归以银行为核心的红利板块。北京 印发《关于促进北京市游戏电竞行业高质量发展的支持办法（暂行）》，压缩审核周期，加强对出版国产 试点网络游戏的申报辅导，游戏、影视等AI应用端较超预期，tmt接棒表现较好。场内基金本周首批10只 科创债ETF上报。震荡区间下行空间有限，相对看好红利、科创AI、消费。 p 【港股市场】港股情绪面和资金面未出现太大扰动，但市 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the industry [10]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Pony.ai is approaching a profitability inflection point driven by AI-powered autonomous driving ecosystem and accelerated global expansion [4][10]. - The company reported a total revenue of $13.979 million in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.6%, primarily driven by Robotaxi services [4]. - The gross margin decreased to 16.6%, down 440 basis points year-on-year, due to changes in revenue structure [5]. - Significant operational losses were reported, with an operating loss of $56 million, an increase of 61.4% year-on-year, reflecting a temporary imbalance between technological investment and commercialization [5][10]. Revenue and Profitability - Revenue growth was robust, with Robotaxi service revenue reaching $1.73 million, a staggering increase of 200.3% year-on-year [4]. - The on-demand charging revenue surged by 800%, indicating rapid expansion of commercial operations in first-tier cities in China [4]. - Operating expenses increased by 56.3% to $58.359 million, primarily due to investments in Gen 7 production and R&D [5]. Strategic Partnerships and Technological Advancements - Pony.ai has established strategic partnerships with Tencent Cloud and Uber to enhance its commercial deployment and leverage AI capabilities [6][8]. - The company has received permission to begin L4 level Robotaxi testing in Luxembourg, marking a significant step in its technological advancement [8]. - The seventh-generation autonomous driving system was showcased at the Shanghai Auto Show, featuring a 100% automotive-grade autonomous driving kit [8]. Global Expansion and Market Presence - Pony.ai has expanded its operations to over 2,000 square kilometers across various regions, including China, Europe, East Asia, and the Middle East [9]. - The company has recorded over 45,000 kilometers of freight service since launching cross-province freight services in Beijing-Tianjin [9]. - A strategic partnership with WeChat's "Mobile Travel Service" platform has led to a 20% increase in registered users in Q1 2025, enhancing its market reach [9]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that investors should focus on Pony.ai's technological leadership and commercialization capabilities in the autonomous driving sector, positioning it as a core investment opportunity in the AI mobility revolution [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the food and beverage industry [8]. Core Insights - The sentiment in the liquor sector has improved following a correction in public opinion regarding the regulation of extravagant dining, which had previously suppressed demand [5]. - The new tea beverage sector is expected to benefit from the booming delivery market and the upcoming peak season, with significant growth anticipated in store openings and sales [6]. - The report highlights the overall low valuation of the liquor sector, with many companies engaging in stock buybacks and increasing dividends, indicating potential for capital inflow as domestic demand policies are released [5]. Summary by Sections Industry News - Recent news includes a 40% year-on-year increase in liquor sales during the JD 618 shopping festival and a successful online sales event generating 32 million yuan [17]. - The report notes a 4.1% increase in the industrial added value of the liquor and tea industry in May [17]. Company News - Guizhou Moutai has appointed new vice presidents, while Wuliangye reported a 34.5% increase in sales in its marketing regions [17]. - The report mentions that the tea beverage company Cha Bai Dao has achieved nationwide supply chain coverage and plans to open 1,000 new stores by 2025 [6]. Key Company and Profit Forecasts - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for various companies, all rated as "Buy," including: - Luzhou Laojiao: EPS of 9.27 in 2025E, PE of 12.31 [10]. - Wuliangye: EPS of 8.67 in 2025E, PE of 13.79 [10]. - Guizhou Moutai: EPS of 75.23 in 2025E, PE of 18.99 [10]. Industry Performance - The food and beverage sector has underperformed compared to the Shanghai Composite Index over the past month, quarter, and year [3]. - The liquor sector's revenue for 2024 is projected at 796.4 billion yuan, reflecting a 5.3% year-on-year increase, despite a 7.72% decrease in production [36][36]. Market Trends - The seasoning industry is expected to grow significantly, with the market size projected to increase from 259.5 billion yuan in 2014 to 687.1 billion yuan in 2024, representing a CAGR of 10.23% [39]. - The report indicates a growing trend in the snack food market, with a market size increase from 0.82 trillion yuan in 2016 to 1.2 trillion yuan in 2022, with a CAGR of 6% [47].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies, including 德明利 (Demingli), 天孚通信 (Tianfu Communication), 新易盛 (Xinyi Sheng), and 太辰光 (Taicheng Light) [10][22]. Core Insights - Marvell emphasizes that customized computing will lead the AI chip revolution, with a significant increase in the projected total addressable market (TAM) for data centers from $75 billion to $94 billion by 2028, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 47% for custom XPU chips [5][20]. - DDR4 memory prices have surged nearly 8% in a single day, marking the largest daily increase in nearly a decade, driven by supply constraints and panic buying [8][21]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The electronic industry saw a 0.95% increase from June 16 to June 20, ranking third among sectors, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 49.86 [2][31]. - The semiconductor equipment and printed circuit board segments experienced the highest gains during this period [35]. Company Focus and Earnings Forecast - Marvell has secured 18 custom projects and is in discussions for over 50 more, with potential revenue scaling up to $75 billion [5][20]. - The report suggests focusing on AI computing-related stocks such as 胜宏科技 (Shenghong Technology), 沪电股份 (Hudian Co.), and 深南电路 (Shennan Circuit) [7][20]. DDR4 Memory Market Dynamics - The average price for DDR4 8Gb and 16Gb models increased by 7.8% and 7.9%, respectively, returning to early 2022 levels [8][21]. - The report anticipates that if major manufacturers continue to reduce DDR4 supply, high price volatility may become the new norm [8][21]. Key Companies and Valuation - The report includes a detailed table of key companies with their earnings per share (EPS) and P/E ratios, highlighting companies like 兆易创新 (Zhaoyi Innovation) and 源杰科技 (Yuanjie Technology) with "Buy" ratings [10][22].

Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China remains in a marginal de - leveraging process, with the goal of stabilizing the macro - leverage ratio unchanged. The large - scale debt resolution reduces local government financing costs and the probability of large - scale defaults and liquidity risks [2]. - The current loose money - market conditions are difficult to sustain, and the peak of the current round of money - market conditions is expected to occur between June 23 and July 4 [2][7]. - The stock - bond ratio favors bonds, and the equity style trends towards value. Currently, long - term bonds have a slightly higher cost - performance ratio than value - type equity assets [6][22][23]. Summary by Directory 1. National Balance Sheet Analysis Liability Side - In May 2025, the liability growth rate of the real - sector was 8.9%, slightly lower than the previous value of 9.0%. It is expected to reach its peak in April, decline to around 8.8% in June, and then gradually decline to around 8% by the end of the year [2][17]. - The money - market conditions of the financial sector were marginally stable and slightly loose last week. Given the marginal de - leveraging of the real sector, the loose money - market conditions are unlikely to continue [2][17]. - The net reduction of government bonds last week was 316 billion yuan, lower than the planned net increase of 218.6 billion yuan. This week, the planned net increase is 575.4 billion yuan. The government liability growth rate was 14.8% at the end of May, expected to rise slightly above 15% in June and then decline to around 12.5% by the end of the year [3][18]. Monetary Policy - Last week, the average weekly trading volume and price of funds increased, and the term spread widened. After adjusting for seasonal effects, the money - market conditions were marginally stable and slightly loose [3][18]. - The yield of one - year Treasury bonds decreased to 1.36% at the end of the week. The lower limit of the one - year Treasury bond yield is estimated to be around 1.3%, the lower limit of the ten - year Treasury bond yield is around 1.7%, and the lower limit of the thirty - year Treasury bond yield is around 1.9% [3][18]. Asset Side - In May, the physical - quantity data weakened compared to April. The government's target for the annual real economic growth rate in 2025 is around 5%, and the nominal economic growth rate target is around 4.9%. It is necessary to further observe whether this will become the central target for China's nominal economic growth in the next 1 - 2 years [4][19]. 2. Stock - Bond Cost - Performance and Stock - Bond Style - Last week, the money - market conditions were marginally stable and slightly loose, but risk appetite continued to decline. Funds flowed more towards short - term bonds, resulting in a continued "bearish stocks, bullish bonds" situation with a value - dominant style [6][21]. - The yields of short - term and long - term bonds declined slightly. The ten - year Treasury bond yield remained stable at 1.64%, the one - year Treasury bond yield decreased by 5 basis points to 1.36%, and the thirty - year Treasury bond yield decreased by 1 basis point to 1.84% [6][21]. - The broad - based rotation strategy outperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.52 percentage points last week and has outperformed it by 6.45 percentage points since July, with a maximum drawdown of 0.0% [6]. - The report recommends a portfolio of 40% dividend index, 40% SSE 50 index, and 20% 30 - year Treasury bond ETF [7][23]. 3. Industry Recommendation 3.1 Industry Performance Review - The A - share market declined with lower trading volume this week. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.51%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.16%, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.66% [27]. - Among the Shenwan primary industries, banks, communications, electronics, food and beverages, and household appliances had the largest increases, while beauty care, textile and apparel, pharmaceutical biology, non - ferrous metals, and social services had the largest declines [27]. 3.2 Industry Crowding and Trading Volume - As of June 20, the top five industries in terms of crowding were electronics, computers, power equipment, machinery and equipment, and pharmaceutical biology, while the bottom five were comprehensive, beauty care, steel, coal, and building materials [29]. - This week, the top five industries with increased crowding were electronics, power equipment, communications, machinery and equipment, and computers, while the top five with decreased crowding were pharmaceutical biology, non - ferrous metals, national defense and military industry, automobiles, and textile and apparel [29]. - The average daily trading volume of the entire A - share market decreased from 1.37 trillion yuan last week to 1.22 trillion yuan this week. The industries with the highest year - on - year growth in trading volume were petroleum and petrochemicals, national defense and military industry, electronics, computers, and public utilities [30]. 3.3 Industry Valuation and Earnings - This week, among the Shenwan primary industries, banks, communications, electronics, food and beverages, and household appliances had the largest increases in PE(TTM), while beauty care, textile and apparel, pharmaceutical biology, non - ferrous metals, and social services had the largest declines [34]. - As of June 20, 2025, industries with high full - year 2024 earnings forecasts and relatively low current valuations compared to history include coal, petroleum and petrochemicals, power equipment, pharmaceutical biology, and consumer electronics [35]. 3.4 Industry Prosperity - In terms of external demand, there were mixed trends. The global manufacturing PMI in May fell from 49.8 to 49.6, while most of the disclosed PMIs of major economies in May rebounded. The CCFI index rose 8% week - on - week [39]. - In terms of domestic demand, second - hand housing prices declined in the latest week, and quantitative indicators showed mixed trends. The traffic volume of trucks on expressways increased, and the capacity utilization rate of ten industries showed a slight rebound in May and continued to rise slightly in June [39]. 3.5 Public Fund Market Review - In the third week of June (June 16 - 20), most active public equity funds underperformed the CSI 300. The 10%, 20%, 30%, and 50% weekly returns were 0.4%, - 0.2%, - 0.6%, and - 1.2% respectively, while the CSI 300 fell 0.45% [53]. - As of June 20, the net asset value of active public equity funds was estimated to be 3.41 trillion yuan, slightly lower than 3.66 trillion yuan in Q4 2024 [53]. 3.6 Industry Recommendation - In the de - leveraging cycle, the stock - bond ratio favors equity to a limited extent, and the value style is more likely to dominate. Dividend - type stocks are generally expected to have the characteristics of non - expansion, good earnings, and survival [8][23][57]. - The recommended A + H dividend portfolio includes 20 A + H stocks, and the A - share portfolio includes 20 A - share stocks, mainly concentrated in industries such as banks, telecommunications, petroleum and petrochemicals, and transportation [8][9][57].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit from a recovering industry ecosystem and increased demand driven by delivery subsidies [5]. - The company has established a comprehensive supply chain across all 31 provinces in China, enhancing its operational efficiency and cost management [6]. - The product matrix is diverse, with a focus on innovation and international expansion, having entered eight countries and regions [7]. - Earnings forecasts indicate a recovery in performance, with projected EPS of 0.68, 0.86, and 1.12 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, alongside a corresponding PE ratio decline [8]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The ready-to-drink tea industry is experiencing a stabilization in pricing wars, leading to a concentration of market share among leading brands [5]. - The introduction of substantial delivery subsidies by major platforms is expected to significantly boost demand in the tea beverage sector [5]. Supply Chain and Operational Efficiency - The company has achieved nationwide supply chain coverage with 25 warehouses and over 300 temperature-controlled delivery vehicles, allowing for same-day delivery [6]. - The strategy of coexisting with franchisees aims to enhance efficiency and optimize costs, thereby stabilizing the company's gross profit structure [6]. Product Development and Market Expansion - The product lineup includes classic, seasonal, and regional offerings, with a strong emphasis on innovation, resulting in rapid sales growth for new products [7]. - The company has initiated overseas market expansion, with a focus on establishing an "international supply chain + local procurement" model, achieving profitability in international locations [7]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to recover from 4,918 million yuan in 2024 to 6,097 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 23.97% [11]. - Net profit is expected to rebound significantly from 472.18 million yuan in 2024 to 1,006.04 million yuan in 2025, indicating a growth rate of 113.06% [11]. - The company's PE ratio is forecasted to decrease from 26.69 in 2024 to 12.53 in 2025, suggesting improved valuation metrics as earnings recover [11].