2025 年 03 月 16 日 或有一到两周的"东西共振" —定量策略周观点总第 154 周 海外市场风险偏好：金融条件指数本周持续位于 120ma 下 方，持续出现较大幅度下降，3/6 日达到近期最低点，后 周五出现小幅反弹，需要持续关注；反应离岸美元流动性 的 ted 利差本周持续震荡中略有下降；libor-ois 本周走 势周四出现小幅跃升后，整体震荡下降，二者仍处于短期 内相对高位，需要注意。 A 股：仓位信号仍维持满仓。两会政策落地未超预期但市场 情绪乐观，AI 科技驱动的资产重估渐入佳境；外资对中国资 产再平衡仍需时间验证，短期建议关注港股＞A 股的补涨机 会（恒生科技盈利兑现期，南向资金买入收窄但底部配置价 值凸显）。 港股：港股胜率模型延续看多，科技板块进入盈利兑现交 易（腾讯将于本月 19 日披露 2024 年报），保持多头思 维，同时看好内需及红利板块机会。市场交投情绪分化。 PCR 延续上行触发看多信号，但卖空成交占比一路回升 12.72%→13.58%→14.8%→15.92%→16%，市场空头有所 边际积累。被动外资买入量略有收窄，主动外资卖出规模 本周大幅走阔，外资止盈抛压增加。 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" investment rating for the company, marking its first coverage [3][7]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a rare "makeup artist IP," reshaping the high-end beauty ecosystem with a unique pricing strategy and personalized consultation services [3]. - The company achieved impressive sales performance during the "3·8" promotional event, ranking first in the makeup and fragrance category on Douyin with a GMV of 50-70 million yuan, reflecting a 7-place increase year-on-year [5]. - Following its inclusion in the Hong Kong Stock Connect, the company is expected to see a significant increase in liquidity, benefiting from both southbound capital and passive index fund investments [6]. - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are projected at 38.44 billion, 50.83 billion, and 63.98 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.77, 2.36, and 2.98 yuan [7][10]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The brand founder, Mao Geping, is a prominent figure in the makeup aesthetics field, leveraging his influence to enhance brand recognition and market positioning [3]. Market Performance - The company has shown strong online sales performance, with effective promotional strategies such as live streaming expected to further boost its growth [5]. Financial Projections - The company anticipates significant revenue growth, with a projected increase of 57.8% in 2023, followed by growth rates of 33.2%, 32.2%, and 25.9% in the subsequent years [10]. - The net profit is expected to grow from 662 million yuan in 2023 to 1.458 billion yuan by 2026, indicating a robust growth trajectory [10].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" investment rating for the company, marking its first coverage [3][7]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a rare "makeup artist IP," reshaping the high-end beauty ecosystem with a unique pricing strategy and personalized consultation services [3]. - The sales performance during the "3·8" promotional event was impressive, with significant online sales growth, particularly on platforms like Douyin and Tmall [5][6]. - The inclusion in the Hong Kong Stock Connect is expected to enhance liquidity and attract capital, aligning with the new consumption trends in the market [6]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected at 38.44 billion, 50.83 billion, and 63.98 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.77, 2.36, and 2.98 yuan [7][10]. - The company is expected to maintain a strong growth trajectory, with revenue growth rates of 33.2%, 32.2%, and 25.9% for the next three years [10]. - The projected net profit for the same years is 868 million, 1.155 billion, and 1.458 billion yuan, reflecting growth rates of 31.2%, 33.1%, and 26.2% [10].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" investment rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2][9]. Core Insights - The company is expected to leverage its unique content and community engagement to capitalize on the AI era, enhancing its content recommendation and creation tools to unlock commercial value from its extensive corpus [3]. - The company has entered a commercialization phase, transitioning from game revenue to advertising revenue, with a notable increase in both sectors. The revenue structure has improved significantly, with advertising and game revenues projected to grow by 28% and 40% year-on-year, respectively, in 2024 [4]. - The company is anticipated to continue its growth trajectory, driven by a strong sense of community and user engagement, which will enhance its monetization potential in the evolving digital landscape [5]. Summary by Sections Current Financial Data - Current stock price is HKD 166.30, with a total market capitalization of HKD 700.6 billion and a total share count of 421.3 million [2]. - The average daily trading volume is HKD 710.1 million, with a 52-week price range of HKD 80.85 to HKD 238.8 [2]. Performance Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are estimated at HKD 298.8 billion, HKD 332.5 billion, and HKD 358.5 billion, respectively. The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be HKD 1.93, HKD 4.01, and HKD 5.74 for the same period [9]. - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of HKD 812 million in 2025, with a significant growth rate of 107.8% in 2026 [11]. Revenue Breakdown - For 2024, the company anticipates advertising revenue of HKD 110 billion and game revenue of HKD 81.9 billion, contributing to a diversified revenue structure [4]. - The company’s gross margin is projected to improve from 32.7% in 2024 to 40.6% by 2027, indicating enhanced profitability [11].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" investment rating for the company [2][9] Core Insights - The company is expected to leverage its unique content and community engagement to capitalize on the AI era, enhancing its content recommendation and creation tools to unlock commercial value from its extensive corpus [3][4] - The company has entered a commercialization phase, transitioning from game revenue to advertising revenue, with a notable increase in both segments. The revenue structure has improved significantly, with advertising and game revenues projected to grow by 28% and 40% year-on-year, respectively, in 2024 [4][5] - The company is forecasted to continue its growth trajectory, with a strong community sense and user engagement driving its commercial potential. The shift from niche culture to a broader community platform is expected to sustain its growth in the AI era [5] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company are estimated at 298.8 billion, 332.5 billion, and 358.5 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 1.93, 4.01, and 5.74 yuan for the same years [9][11] - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 812 million yuan in 2025, with a significant growth rate of 107.8% in 2026 [11][12] - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are projected to be 92.7, 44.6, and 31.1 for 2025, 2026, and 2027, indicating a favorable valuation as the company continues to grow [9][11]

2025 年 03 月 16 日 或有一到两周的"东西共振" —定量策略周观点总第 154 周 投资要点 ▌本周建议一览 核心观点：长期看两个转移：美国向非美，以及一些"墙 头草"资金在 EMexChina 到 china 的回补。年初我们报 告中的测算，中国权益潜在回流体量，大约在 2300 亿美 元。短期看避险资金动向：本轮美国流出避险资金主要去 向包括欧股（德国 DAX）、港股、黄金、美债。避险资产 的逐步冲高，叠加美股超跌迹象明显，或有一到两周的 "东西共振"。 美股：转为中等仓位参与反弹。德股、港股有一定止盈， CPI 低于预期给予反弹窗口；能否真实反转仍需关注下周 议息会议，以及特朗普 Put 发挥作用。 日股：美元兑日元贬值趋势有延缓，上周受首轮"春斗" 结果压制，企业承诺涨薪 5.46%，不及此前工人诉求。多 头仓位比较拥挤，3/19 当前利率期货显示无加息概率。结 合跨境资金流向，我们仍然对日股持看多信号。 海外市场风险偏好：金融条件指数本周持续位于 120ma 下 方，持续出现较大幅度下降，3/6 日达到近期最低点，后 周五出现小幅反弹，需要持续关注；反应离岸美元流动性 的 ted 利差本 ...

2025 年 03 月 17 日 分析师：万蓉 S1050511020001 wanrong@cfsc.com.cn 市场情绪：86 分（过热） 双融日报 --鑫融讯 最近一年大盘走势 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 (%) 沪深300 相关研究 ▌ 华鑫市场情绪温度指标：（过热） 华鑫市场情绪温度指标显示，昨日市场情绪综合评分为 86 分，市场情绪处于"过热"。历史市场情绪趋势变化可参 考图表 1。 ▌ 热点主题追踪 今日热点主题：算力、机器人、RISC-V 1、算力主题：据媒体报道，我国全面启动"东数西算" 工程已满 3 年，三大运营商、数据中心服务商以及相关产业 链企业积极跟进，多领域发力，各地新型数字基础设施加速 建设，全国一体化算力体系加快形成。据 2024 中国算力大会 数据，我国在用算力中心机架总规模超 830 万标准机架，算 力总规模达 246EFLOPS，位居全球第二。据统计，2024 年我 国数字经济增加值占 GDP 比重已超过 45%，其中算力相关产 业 贡 献 了 约 三 分 之 一 的 增 量 。 相 关 标 的 ： 众 合 科 技 ...

2025 年 03 月 16 日 硫酸、硫磺等涨幅居前，建议继续关注原油、 钛白粉板块和轮胎板块 推荐(维持) 投资要点 分析师：张伟保 S1050523110001 zhangwb@cfsc.com.cn 行业相对表现 表现 1M 3M 12M 基础化工(申万) 4.1 1.2 7.9 沪深 300 1.7 2.4 12.2 市场表现 -20 -10 0 10 20 (%) 基础化工 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《基础化工行业周报：硫酸、硫 磺等涨幅居前，建议继续关注原 油、钛白粉板块和轮胎板块》2025- 03-10 2、《基础化工行业周报：硫酸、硫 磺等涨幅居前，建议继续关注钛白 粉板块和轮胎板块》2025-03-02 3、《基础化工行业专题报告：从柔 性传感到人形机器人触觉革命》 2025-02-26 ▌ 硫磺、硫酸等涨幅居前，苯酚、天然气等跌幅较大 本 周 涨 幅 较 大 的 产 品 ： 硫 磺 （ 温 哥 华 FOB 合同价， 16.44%），硫酸（杭州颜料化工厂 105%，12.86%），挂牌纯 MDI（烟台万华，6.98%），硝酸（安徽 98%，6.90%），合 ...

2025 年 03 月 16 日 智元灵犀 X2 与 GO-1 大模型亮相，Figure BotQ 推动机器人商业落地 —汽车行业周报 推荐(维持) 投资要点 | 分析师：林子健 | S1050523090001 | | --- | --- | | linzj@cfsc.com.cn | | | 行业相对表现 | | 表现 1M 3M 12M 汽车(申万) 9.2 12.0 32.9 沪深 300 1.9 -0.7 10.0 市场表现 相关研究 1、《汽车行业周报：Figure 发布 VLA 大模型 HeHelix，尊界 S800 首 发六大智能化技术》2025-02-23 2、《汽车行业周报：宇树、Figure 迎新进展，比亚迪天神之眼开创全 民智驾时代》2025-02-17 3、《汽车行业深度报告：丝杠方法 论（二）：兵马已动，磨床先行》 2025-02-16 ▌北京人形机器人创新中心正式发布通用具身智能 平台，全球首次直播展示机器人多任务操作 3 月 12 日，北京人形机器人创新中心（国家地方共建具身智 能机器人创新中心）在京发布了全球首个"一脑多能"、 "一脑多机"的通用具身智能平台"慧思开物"。 全 ...

2025 年 03 月 16 日 北方华创拟受让芯源微 9.49%股份，激光雷达龙 头禾赛科技公布财报 推荐(维持) 投资要点 分析师：高永豪 S1050524120001 gaoyh7@cfsc.com.cn 分析师：吕卓阳 S1050523060001 lvzy@cfsc.com.cn 行业相对表现 | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 电子(申万) | 3.9 | 8.8 | 41.9 | | 沪深 300 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 12.2 | 市场表现 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 (%) 电子 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1 、 《 电 子 行 业 周 报 ： 通 用 型 AIAgent"Manus"横空出世，阿里 推出 QwQ-32B 全新推理模型》2025- 03-10 2、《电子行业周报：关注昇腾产业 链及存储料号涨价》2025-03-04 3、《电子行业周报：阿里巴巴资本 开支大增，Figure 与 1x 新款人形机 器人分别亮相》2025-02-23 ▌上周回顾 3 月 10 ...