Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) [1][28] Core Insights - The core business continues to show strong growth, with operational leverage being released [1] - The report anticipates a revenue of 1,778 billion RMB for Q1 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 11% [7][27] - The expected non-IFRS net profit for Q1 2025 is 617 billion RMB, reflecting a 23% year-over-year growth [7][27] Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 7,243 billion RMB, 7,891 billion RMB, and 8,604 billion RMB respectively [27][28] - Non-IFRS net profit estimates for the same period are 2,554 billion RMB, 2,891 billion RMB, and 3,235 billion RMB respectively [27][28] - The report predicts a non-IFRS EPS of 28 RMB, 31 RMB, and 35 RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [27][28] Business Segment Performance Gaming - Expected revenue growth of 18% year-over-year for Q1 2025, with domestic and overseas growth rates of 19% and 17% respectively [8][12] - Strong performance from long-standing games during the Spring Festival period [11][12] Marketing Services - Anticipated revenue growth of 20% year-over-year for Q1 2025, driven by strong performance in video accounts, mini-programs, and search ads [18][19] - AI continues to enhance marketing services, improving ad targeting and conversion rates [25] Financial Technology and Enterprise Services - Expected revenue growth of 5% year-over-year for Q1 2025, with improvements in payment services and healthy growth in wealth management and small loans [26] - Cloud business potential is expected to accelerate in Q2 2025 [26] Valuation and Target Price - The report assigns a target market value of 5.0 trillion RMB (5.4 trillion HKD) for Tencent Holdings, corresponding to a target price of 603 HKD [28][29]

2025 年 04 月 16 日 晨会纪要 研究所： 证券分析师： 余春生 S0350513090001 yucs@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 晨会纪要 ——2025 年第 63 期 投资要点: 观点精粹: 最新报告摘要 内镜新品推陈出新，研发营销双发力--澳华内镜/医疗器械(688212/213705) 科创板公司普通报告 美国关税加码，全球资产"震颤"--行业周报 全产业链优势凸显，盈利能力逆势提升--圣农发展/养殖业(002299/211107) 公司点评 零跑 B10、比亚迪汉 L 上市，吉利星耀 8 开启预售，特斯拉拟在摩洛哥建厂--行业周报 风电轴承龙头产能释放在即，乘行业东风打开新增长极--新强联/风电设备(300850/216306) 公司深度研究 业绩增速稳健，产品结构继续升级--金徽酒/白酒Ⅱ(603919/213405) 公司点评 公司不断强化业务聚焦，有望受益特高压行业内需景气--许继电气/电网设备(000400/216308) 公司点评 转债再现"黄金坑"--固定收益点评 2024 年业绩增速 33%，"新品推广+设备更新"双轮驱动--思维列控/计算机设备(6 ...

2025 年 04 月 15 日 宏观深度研究 宏观深度研究 最近一年走势 《政府工作报告的六大政策内涵*夏磊》—— 2025-03-06 《2 月 PMI 数据点评：PMI 出现一些积极的新变化 *夏磊》——2025-03-03 2025 年一季度，房地产市场呈现止跌回稳的积极态势。 研究所： 证券分析师： 夏磊 S0350521090004 xial@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 房地产市场止跌回稳新特征 随着政策大力支持和居民住房需求的释放，市场修复明显，房地产 市场出现新特征。 二手房成为市场回暖的主要动力 二手房交易活跃度显著高于新房，成为市场回暖的主要动力。2025 年 1-3 月，一线城市新房网签面积同比上涨 6%，北上深二手房网签 量同比上涨 45%，北上深二手房成交占比达 64%。以上海为例，3 月二手房日均成交达 947 套，较 2024 年 12 月的高点下降 1%。相 比之下，新房市场整体动能趋缓，上海 3 月新房日均成交相较 2024 年 12 月高点下降 28%。 二手房交易是居民置换链条中的重要一环，其率先回暖可带动房地 产市场整体复苏。二手房价格稳定，会改 ...

2025 年 04 月 15 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) | 研究所： | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | | 杨仁文 S0350521120001 | | | | yangrw@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | | 谭瑞峤 S0350521120004 | | | | tanrq@ghzq.com.cn | | 联系人 | ： | 王春宸 S0350123070046 | | | | wangcc@ghzq.com.cn | [Table_Title] 经营情况平稳，新业态加速突破 ——皖新传媒（601801）2024 年报点评 公司 2025 年 4 月 12 日公告 2024 年度报告，2024 年实现收入 107.5 亿 元，yoy-4.4%，归母净利润 7 亿元，yoy-24.7%，扣非净利润 7.6 亿元， yoy+0.5%。 投资要点: 2024 年每股分红 0.2 元，含回购股息率达 4.2% 公司 2024 年期末拟每股分派股利 0.1 元，合计分红 1.96 亿元，2024 半年度已实现每股分红 0.1 元，因此年度分红总额为 3 ...

2025 年 04 月 15 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) 研究所： 证券分析师： 刘熹 S0350523040001 liux10@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 2024 年业绩增速 33%， "新品推广+设备更新" 双轮驱动 ——思维列控（603508）2024 年年报点评 最近一年走势 | 相对沪深 | 300 表现 | | 2025/04/15 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 思维列控 | | 1.6% | 12.7% | 26.4% | | 沪深 300 | | -6.1% | -0.9% | 6.0% | | 市场数据 | 2025/04/15 | | --- | --- | | 当前价格（元） | 25.27 | | 周价格区间（元） 52 | 16.42-27.01 | | 总市值（百万） | 9,634.80 | | 流通市值（百万） | 9,634.80 | | 总股本（万股） | 38,127.44 | | 流通股本（万股） | 38,127.44 | | 日均成交额（ ...

2025 年 04 月 15 日 固定收益点评 研究所： 证券分析师： 靳毅 S0350517100001 jiny01@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 范圣哲 S0350522080001 fansz@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 转债再现"黄金坑" 固定收益点评 最近一年走势 相关报告 毅，范圣哲》——2024-10-27 《债券研究月报：高 YTM 转债配置正当时*靳毅， 范圣哲》——2024-08-25 《债券研究月报：转债如何有效择时？*靳毅，范 圣哲》——2024-07-28 投资要点: 国海证券研究所 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 《固定收益点评：指数新高，转债如何应对？*靳 毅，范圣哲》——2025-04-03 《债券研究月报：2025 转债年度策略*靳毅，范圣 哲》——2024-12-26 《债券研究月报：牛市，转债如何跟涨正股？*靳 另一方面，大行注资落地，打开利率下行空间。我们在《大行注资落地，如何影 响债市》中提到，本轮央行注资特别国债 5000 亿元对债市影响主要有两个方面： ①从供给端来看，发行期限主要为 5Y 和 7Y，在 4-6 月相对平滑发行，供给 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for XPeng Motors (9868.HK) [1] Core Insights - XPeng Motors aims to become a global AI automotive company, with significant growth expected from new product launches and international expansion. The company plans to release seven new or updated models in 2025, potentially doubling its delivery volume to over 380,000 units [7][13] - The company is focusing on the European market, projecting that overseas sales could account for over 50% of total sales in the next decade. By 2030, XPeng's revenue from Europe could reach between 398 billion to 520 billion RMB, depending on the export strategy [8] - XPeng's autonomous driving technology is among the top tier in the industry, with plans to achieve a takeover every 100 kilometers by 2025. The company has established a significant computing power center and has extensive testing mileage [9][10] - The report suggests that the Robotaxi market may not replace private car ownership, and XPeng will focus on manufacturing Robotaxi vehicles rather than operating them. Estimated cumulative revenue from Robotaxi could reach 19.7 billion RMB from 2025 to 2030 [11] - The global humanoid robot market is projected to reach 109.5 billion RMB by 2030, and XPeng is expected to capture a significant market share due to its experience in automotive manufacturing [12] Summary by Sections Basic Information - XPeng Motors is positioned to become a leader in AI-integrated smart vehicles, with a focus on electric vehicle (EV) sales and technology development [19][30] Automotive Business - The company anticipates a new product cycle in 2025, with a focus on high-value models like the G6 and MONA M03. The delivery volume is expected to increase significantly, with a target of over 380,000 units [7][35] - XPeng's new vehicle architecture, SEPA2.0, is designed to reduce development time and costs, enhancing production efficiency [38] Intelligent Driving - XPeng's autonomous driving capabilities are leading in the industry, with a focus on high-level autonomous features and significant data collection for model training [9][16] Robotaxi Business - The report indicates that the Robotaxi market will not replace private vehicle ownership, and XPeng will concentrate on the production of Robotaxi vehicles [11][17] Humanoid Robots - The humanoid robot market is expected to grow significantly, and XPeng is leveraging its automotive expertise to enter this space [12] Financial Analysis - Revenue projections for XPeng Motors are optimistic, with expected revenues of 789.13 billion RMB in 2025, reflecting a 93% year-on-year growth [13][14]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][13]. Core Views - The company has reported a revenue of 11.72 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 3.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.27 billion yuan, down 46.5% year-on-year [6][8]. - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 0.31 yuan per share, with a total dividend amounting to 650 million yuan, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 50.9%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points year-on-year [7][11]. - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth in the coming years, with projections of 11.98 billion yuan in 2025, 12.37 billion yuan in 2026, and 12.81 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 2%, 3%, and 4% respectively [11][12]. Summary by Sections Recent Performance - The company's stock performance relative to the CSI 300 index shows a decline of 0.1% over the past month, 2.0% over three months, and 4.4% over the past year [5]. - The current stock price is 9.81 yuan, with a 52-week price range of 9.23 to 14.20 yuan [5]. Financial Highlights - The company reported a non-net profit of 1.42 billion yuan for 2024, down 9.9% year-on-year, with a non-net profit margin of 12.1%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points [8]. - The company had cash on hand of 10.6 billion yuan at the end of 2024 [9]. Business Segments - The educational materials segment generated 9.78 billion yuan in revenue for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 2.5%, accounting for 62.8% of total revenue [12]. - The general book segment saw an increase in market share, with a real sales share of 1.7%, up 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, ranking 14th in the market [12]. Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve a diluted earnings per share (EPS) of 0.75 yuan in 2025, 0.79 yuan in 2026, and 0.84 yuan in 2027 [11][13]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve to 10% by 2025 and remain stable thereafter [11][13].

2025 年 04 月 15 日 公司研究 评级：买入(首次覆盖) 研究所： 证券分析师： 邱迪 S0350522010002 qiud@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 李航 S0350521120006 lih11@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 风电轴承龙头产能释放在即，乘行业东风打开新 增长极 ——新强联（300850）公司深度研究 最近一年走势 | 相对沪深 300 | 表现 | | 2025/04/14 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 新强联 | -1.4% | 40.5% | 12.7% | | 沪深 300 | -6.2% | -1.6% | 8.2% | | 市场数据 | | | 2025/04/14 | | 当前价格（元） | | | 26.00 | | 周价格区间（元） 52 | | | 13.68-30.28 | | 总市值（百万） | | | 9,327.37 | | 流通市值（百万） | | | 6,381.60 | | 总股本（万股） | | | 35,874.51 | | 流通股本 ...

2025 年 04 月 15 日 公司研究 评级：增持(维持) 研究所： 证券分析师： 刘洁铭 S0350521110006 liujm@ghzq.com.cn 联系人 ： 郝天宇 S0350124060016 haoty@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 业绩增速稳健，产品结构继续升级 ——金徽酒（603919）2025 年一季报点评 最近一年走势 事件: 2025 年 4 月 14 日，金徽酒发布 2025 年一季报。2025Q1 公司实现营业 收入 11.08 亿元，同比+3.04%；归母净利润 2.34 亿元，同比+5.77%； 扣非归母净利润 2.31 亿元，同比+4.30%。 投资要点: 相对沪深 300 表现 2025/04/14 表现 1M 3M 12M 金徽酒 -1.3% 5.8% 2.8% 证券研究报告 | 市场数据 | 2025/04/14 | | --- | --- | | 当前价格（元） | 19.59 | | 52 周价格区间（元） | 15.47-24.18 | | 总市值（百万） | 9,937.22 | | 流通市值（百万） | 9,937.22 | | 总 ...