2025 年 04 月 15 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) | 研究所： | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | | 杨仁文 S0350521120001 | | | | yangrw@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | | 谭瑞峤 S0350521120004 | | | | tanrq@ghzq.com.cn | | 联系人 | ： | 王春宸 S0350123070046 | | | | wangcc@ghzq.com.cn | [Table_Title] 经营情况平稳，新业态加速突破 ——皖新传媒（601801）2024 年报点评 公司 2025 年 4 月 12 日公告 2024 年度报告，2024 年实现收入 107.5 亿 元，yoy-4.4%，归母净利润 7 亿元，yoy-24.7%，扣非净利润 7.6 亿元， yoy+0.5%。 投资要点: 2024 年每股分红 0.2 元，含回购股息率达 4.2% 公司 2024 年期末拟每股分派股利 0.1 元，合计分红 1.96 亿元，2024 半年度已实现每股分红 0.1 元，因此年度分红总额为 3 ...

2025 年 04 月 15 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) 研究所： 证券分析师： 刘熹 S0350523040001 liux10@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 2024 年业绩增速 33%， "新品推广+设备更新" 双轮驱动 ——思维列控（603508）2024 年年报点评 最近一年走势 | 相对沪深 | 300 表现 | | 2025/04/15 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 思维列控 | | 1.6% | 12.7% | 26.4% | | 沪深 300 | | -6.1% | -0.9% | 6.0% | | 市场数据 | 2025/04/15 | | --- | --- | | 当前价格（元） | 25.27 | | 周价格区间（元） 52 | 16.42-27.01 | | 总市值（百万） | 9,634.80 | | 流通市值（百万） | 9,634.80 | | 总股本（万股） | 38,127.44 | | 流通股本（万股） | 38,127.44 | | 日均成交额（ ...

2025 年 04 月 15 日 固定收益点评 研究所： 证券分析师： 靳毅 S0350517100001 jiny01@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 范圣哲 S0350522080001 fansz@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 转债再现"黄金坑" 固定收益点评 最近一年走势 相关报告 毅，范圣哲》——2024-10-27 《债券研究月报：高 YTM 转债配置正当时*靳毅， 范圣哲》——2024-08-25 《债券研究月报：转债如何有效择时？*靳毅，范 圣哲》——2024-07-28 投资要点: 国海证券研究所 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 《固定收益点评：指数新高，转债如何应对？*靳 毅，范圣哲》——2025-04-03 《债券研究月报：2025 转债年度策略*靳毅，范圣 哲》——2024-12-26 《债券研究月报：牛市，转债如何跟涨正股？*靳 另一方面，大行注资落地，打开利率下行空间。我们在《大行注资落地，如何影 响债市》中提到，本轮央行注资特别国债 5000 亿元对债市影响主要有两个方面： ①从供给端来看，发行期限主要为 5Y 和 7Y，在 4-6 月相对平滑发行，供给 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for XPeng Motors (9868.HK) [1] Core Insights - XPeng Motors aims to become a global AI automotive company, with significant growth expected from new product launches and international expansion. The company plans to release seven new or updated models in 2025, potentially doubling its delivery volume to over 380,000 units [7][13] - The company is focusing on the European market, projecting that overseas sales could account for over 50% of total sales in the next decade. By 2030, XPeng's revenue from Europe could reach between 398 billion to 520 billion RMB, depending on the export strategy [8] - XPeng's autonomous driving technology is among the top tier in the industry, with plans to achieve a takeover every 100 kilometers by 2025. The company has established a significant computing power center and has extensive testing mileage [9][10] - The report suggests that the Robotaxi market may not replace private car ownership, and XPeng will focus on manufacturing Robotaxi vehicles rather than operating them. Estimated cumulative revenue from Robotaxi could reach 19.7 billion RMB from 2025 to 2030 [11] - The global humanoid robot market is projected to reach 109.5 billion RMB by 2030, and XPeng is expected to capture a significant market share due to its experience in automotive manufacturing [12] Summary by Sections Basic Information - XPeng Motors is positioned to become a leader in AI-integrated smart vehicles, with a focus on electric vehicle (EV) sales and technology development [19][30] Automotive Business - The company anticipates a new product cycle in 2025, with a focus on high-value models like the G6 and MONA M03. The delivery volume is expected to increase significantly, with a target of over 380,000 units [7][35] - XPeng's new vehicle architecture, SEPA2.0, is designed to reduce development time and costs, enhancing production efficiency [38] Intelligent Driving - XPeng's autonomous driving capabilities are leading in the industry, with a focus on high-level autonomous features and significant data collection for model training [9][16] Robotaxi Business - The report indicates that the Robotaxi market will not replace private vehicle ownership, and XPeng will concentrate on the production of Robotaxi vehicles [11][17] Humanoid Robots - The humanoid robot market is expected to grow significantly, and XPeng is leveraging its automotive expertise to enter this space [12] Financial Analysis - Revenue projections for XPeng Motors are optimistic, with expected revenues of 789.13 billion RMB in 2025, reflecting a 93% year-on-year growth [13][14]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][13]. Core Views - The company has reported a revenue of 11.72 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 3.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.27 billion yuan, down 46.5% year-on-year [6][8]. - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 0.31 yuan per share, with a total dividend amounting to 650 million yuan, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 50.9%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points year-on-year [7][11]. - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth in the coming years, with projections of 11.98 billion yuan in 2025, 12.37 billion yuan in 2026, and 12.81 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 2%, 3%, and 4% respectively [11][12]. Summary by Sections Recent Performance - The company's stock performance relative to the CSI 300 index shows a decline of 0.1% over the past month, 2.0% over three months, and 4.4% over the past year [5]. - The current stock price is 9.81 yuan, with a 52-week price range of 9.23 to 14.20 yuan [5]. Financial Highlights - The company reported a non-net profit of 1.42 billion yuan for 2024, down 9.9% year-on-year, with a non-net profit margin of 12.1%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points [8]. - The company had cash on hand of 10.6 billion yuan at the end of 2024 [9]. Business Segments - The educational materials segment generated 9.78 billion yuan in revenue for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 2.5%, accounting for 62.8% of total revenue [12]. - The general book segment saw an increase in market share, with a real sales share of 1.7%, up 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, ranking 14th in the market [12]. Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve a diluted earnings per share (EPS) of 0.75 yuan in 2025, 0.79 yuan in 2026, and 0.84 yuan in 2027 [11][13]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve to 10% by 2025 and remain stable thereafter [11][13].

2025 年 04 月 15 日 公司研究 评级：买入(首次覆盖) 研究所： 证券分析师： 邱迪 S0350522010002 qiud@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 李航 S0350521120006 lih11@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 风电轴承龙头产能释放在即，乘行业东风打开新 增长极 ——新强联（300850）公司深度研究 最近一年走势 | 相对沪深 300 | 表现 | | 2025/04/14 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 新强联 | -1.4% | 40.5% | 12.7% | | 沪深 300 | -6.2% | -1.6% | 8.2% | | 市场数据 | | | 2025/04/14 | | 当前价格（元） | | | 26.00 | | 周价格区间（元） 52 | | | 13.68-30.28 | | 总市值（百万） | | | 9,327.37 | | 流通市值（百万） | | | 6,381.60 | | 总股本（万股） | | | 35,874.51 | | 流通股本 ...

2025 年 04 月 15 日 公司研究 评级：增持(维持) 研究所： 证券分析师： 刘洁铭 S0350521110006 liujm@ghzq.com.cn 联系人 ： 郝天宇 S0350124060016 haoty@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 业绩增速稳健，产品结构继续升级 ——金徽酒（603919）2025 年一季报点评 最近一年走势 事件: 2025 年 4 月 14 日，金徽酒发布 2025 年一季报。2025Q1 公司实现营业 收入 11.08 亿元，同比+3.04%；归母净利润 2.34 亿元，同比+5.77%； 扣非归母净利润 2.31 亿元，同比+4.30%。 投资要点: 相对沪深 300 表现 2025/04/14 表现 1M 3M 12M 金徽酒 -1.3% 5.8% 2.8% 证券研究报告 | 市场数据 | 2025/04/14 | | --- | --- | | 当前价格（元） | 19.59 | | 52 周价格区间（元） | 15.47-24.18 | | 总市值（百万） | 9,937.22 | | 流通市值（百万） | 9,937.22 | | 总 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][10]. Core Views - The company is continuously strengthening its business focus and is expected to benefit from the high demand in the ultra-high voltage industry [1]. - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 17.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.12 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11% [4]. - The company is positioned as a leading supplier in the direct current equipment sector, with significant growth potential due to the increasing demand in the industry [9]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 171 billion yuan, with a net profit of 11.2 billion yuan, and a gross profit margin of 20.8%, which is an increase of 2.8 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - For Q4 2024, the revenue was 75.0 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 17% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 173% [4]. - In Q1 2025, the revenue was 23.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16%, while the net profit was 2.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 12% year-on-year [5]. Business Segment Performance - The company has reduced low-margin integrated business and achieved rapid growth in direct current business, with direct current transmission system revenue increasing by 102% year-on-year [6]. - The intelligent distribution system generated revenue of 47.1 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 24.3%, while the intelligent meter segment reported revenue of 38.7 billion yuan [6]. - The company is expected to benefit from the anticipated approval of five ultra-high voltage direct current projects in 2025, which will drive demand for direct current equipment [6]. Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 18.3 billion yuan, 20.0 billion yuan, and 22.1 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 7%, 9%, and 10% [9]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 1.45 billion yuan, 1.77 billion yuan, and 2.13 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 30%, 21%, and 20% respectively [9]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 16x for 2025, 13x for 2026, and 11x for 2027 [9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has demonstrated a robust performance with a revenue of 18.586 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.53%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 0.724 billion yuan, up 9.03% year-on-year [1][2] - The company has shown a strong competitive advantage in the industry, with significant growth in both production and sales volumes, particularly in chicken meat sales and processed meat products [4][6] - The company has successfully enhanced its breeding stock performance and market share through the development of its proprietary breeding source, "Shenze 901plus," which has seen over 30% growth in sales compared to the previous year [4][6] Financial Performance - The company achieved a quarterly growth in performance throughout 2024, indicating a consistent improvement in its operational efficiency [4] - The forecast for total revenue from 2024 to 2026 is adjusted to 20.889 billion yuan, 23.106 billion yuan, and 25.706 billion yuan respectively, with net profits projected at 1.076 billion yuan, 1.583 billion yuan, and 1.946 billion yuan [4][6] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is expected to grow from 0.58 yuan in 2024 to 1.56 yuan in 2027, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [6][7] Market Performance - The company's stock has outperformed the CSI 300 index, with a 1-month performance of +20.0%, 3-month performance of +21.5%, and a 12-month performance of +16.1% [3] - The current stock price is 17.12 yuan, with a 52-week price range of 10.49 to 17.98 yuan [3] Business Strategy - The company has established a comprehensive multi-channel business system covering B-end, C-end, and F-end markets, leading to a 23.40% year-on-year increase in C-end business revenue [4] - The company has focused on enhancing its export business, achieving a 17.29% year-on-year growth in exports [4]

2025 年 04 月 15 日 行业研究 评级：推荐(维持) 研究所： 《马斯克提出星舰将于 2026 年携带"擎天柱"前 往火星，宇树 G1 机器人首次完成侧空翻——人形 机器人行业 2025 年 3 月月报（推荐）*汽车*吴铭 杰，戴畅》——2025-04-07 《汽车行业周报：美国将对进口汽车和汽车零部件 征收 25%的关税，仰望 U7 正式上市（推荐）*汽 车*戴畅》——2025-03-31 《汽车行业周报：腾势 N9、二代哈弗枭龙 MAX 上 市，马斯克召开特斯拉全员大会（推荐）*汽车*戴 畅》——2025-03-25 《汽车行业周报：零跑 B10 正式开启预售，2025 款小鹏 G6/G9 上市（推荐）*汽车*戴畅》—— 2025-03-17 证券分析师： 戴畅 S0350523120004 daic@ghzq.com.cn 零跑 [Table_Title] B10、比亚迪汉 L 上市，吉利星耀 8 开启 预售，特斯拉拟在摩洛哥建厂 ——汽车行业周报 | 行业相对表现 | | | 2025/04/14 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | | 1M ...