[Table_Main] 极地黄金锑产量将再次缺失，锑价上涨 基础继续夯实 事件描述 极地黄金锑产量 1.27 万吨，同比大幅下降 1.44 万吨/-53%。3 月 5 日晚，极 地黄金披露 2024 年报，公司全年浮选锑精矿产量含锑 1.27 万吨，主因富锑 矿开采量减少所致，下半年产量降幅更为明显。其中，24H1 产量 0.86 万吨 /24H2 产量 0.41 万吨，浮选精矿锑含量分别为 14.3%/15.3%。 事件点评 [Table_Author] 分析师 李烁 | 登记编码：S0950524120001 | | --- | | ： ：021-61102510 | | ： lis19@w kzq.com.cn | | 分析师 黄梓钊 | | 登记编码：S0950523120001 | | ： ：021-61102510 | | ： huangzizhao@wkzq.com.cn | | [Table_PicQuote] 行业表现 2025/3/5 | | 21% 14% | | 8% 2% | | -5% | 资料来源：Wind，聚源 [Table_DocReport] 相关研究 富锑矿采区开采完毕 ...

[Table_Main] "双供需体系"下，国内锑价景气的草 蛇灰线 事件描述 内外价差持续，国内锑价大幅补涨。2024 年 8 月份中国正式禁止锑锭出口， 国内外锑锭价格走势分化：欧洲锑锭报价七个月的时间涨幅高达 135.4%；春 节过后国内锑锭价格开始大幅补涨。 事件点评 三大因素夯实本轮国内价格快速上涨的坚实基础，锑价有望继续创新高，直 至内外价差再平衡。 国内外价差致国内原料紧张，价差急需修复。1）内外价差大，中国进口原料 难度提升。全球直接面临原料低价销售中国的意愿降低，而海外又没有足够 冶炼能力承接原料盈余的局面；2）价差加速锑冶炼产能开始向东南亚转移。 国内原料紧张带动价格上涨是当前国内外价差持续拉大的背景下的必然结 果，海外冶炼产能逐渐开始放量值得警惕。2024 年 12 月份单月，泰国、日 本、美国、欧盟以上国家合计从缅甸进口锑锭量已经接近 1200 吨，较之前 1- 8 月份平均 268 吨的平均值，增加了 345%。 锑系阻燃剂价格上行，需求表现强劲。2025 年 2 月份开始，国内锑系阻燃材 料报价开始连续上涨，年涨幅达到 30%以上，明显高于锑锭涨幅，体现出阻 燃需求的强劲。1）溴－ ...

高端制造产业跟踪（2月）： AI应用贯穿全年，传统行业+AI的价值或被低估 登记编码：S0950523090001 邮箱： qiyan1@wkzq.com.cn 电话：010-56307033 联系人：周越 邮箱： zhouyue@wkzq.com.cn 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 2025/03/07 | 机械设备行业 | | --- | | 投资评级 看好 | 联系人：张雪 邮箱： zhangxue1@wkzq.com.cn Contents 目录 板块观点 01 五矿证券研究所 高端制造行业 分析师：祁岩 02 数据跟踪 03 04 行情回顾 新闻&公告 板块观点 1. 板块观点 本月机器人板块表现优异，板块有望贯穿全年。2月机器人板块有亮眼表现，我们认为板块行情有望贯穿全年。 1）从产业逻辑来看，2025是AI应用元年，具身智能占据产业链关节身位。首先，模型性能的快速增长、开源模型的爆发、算力成本的下降，从供给侧铺平了AI应 用的道路；其次，从商业模式来看，产业急需爆款级别的AI应用完成商业的闭环。AI应用是2025年主线，而具身智能是AI应用重要分支。 2）产业进度来看超预期。本月figure发布h ...

[Table_Main] "双供需体系"下，国内锑价景气的草 蛇灰线 事件描述 内外价差持续，国内锑价大幅补涨。2024 年 8 月份中国正式禁止锑锭出口， 国内外锑锭价格走势分化：欧洲锑锭报价七个月的时间涨幅高达 135.4%；春 节过后国内锑锭价格开始大幅补涨。 事件点评 三大因素夯实本轮国内价格快速上涨的坚实基础，锑价有望继续创新高，直 至内外价差再平衡。 国内外价差致国内原料紧张，价差急需修复。1）内外价差大，中国进口原料 难度提升。全球直接面临原料低价销售中国的意愿降低，而海外又没有足够 冶炼能力承接原料盈余的局面；2）价差加速锑冶炼产能开始向东南亚转移。 国内原料紧张带动价格上涨是当前国内外价差持续拉大的背景下的必然结 果，海外冶炼产能逐渐开始放量值得警惕。2024 年 12 月份单月，泰国、日 本、美国、欧盟以上国家合计从缅甸进口锑锭量已经接近 1200 吨，较之前 1- 8 月份平均 268 吨的平均值，增加了 345%。 锑系阻燃剂价格上行，需求表现强劲。2025 年 2 月份开始，国内锑系阻燃材 料报价开始连续上涨，年涨幅达到 30%以上，明显高于锑锭涨幅，体现出阻 燃需求的强劲。1）溴－ ...

分析师：祁岩 登记编码：S0950523090001 邮箱： qiyan1@wkzq.com.cn 电话：010-56307033 高端制造产业跟踪（2月）： AI应用贯穿全年，传统行业+AI的价值或被低估 五矿证券研究所 高端制造行业 | 机械设备行业 | | --- | | 投资评级 看好 | 联系人：张雪 02 联系人：周越 数据跟踪 03 04 邮箱： zhouyue@wkzq.com.cn 邮箱： zhangxue1@wkzq.com.cn Contents 目录 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 2025/03/07 板块观点 01 1. 板块观点 本月机器人板块表现优异，板块有望贯穿全年。2月机器人板块有亮眼表现，我们认为板块行情有望贯穿全年。 1）从产业逻辑来看，2025是AI应用元年，具身智能占据产业链关节身位。首先，模型性能的快速增长、开源模型的爆发、算力成本的下降，从供给侧铺平了AI应 用的道路；其次，从商业模式来看，产业急需爆款级别的AI应用完成商业的闭环。AI应用是2025年主线，而具身智能是AI应用重要分支。 2）产业进度来看超预期。本月figure发布helix模型及在物流场景的应用视 ...

[Table_Main] 极地黄金锑产量将再次缺失，锑价上涨 基础继续夯实 事件描述 极地黄金锑产量 1.27 万吨，同比大幅下降 1.44 万吨/-53%。3 月 5 日晚，极 地黄金披露 2024 年报，公司全年浮选锑精矿产量含锑 1.27 万吨，主因富锑 矿开采量减少所致，下半年产量降幅更为明显。其中，24H1 产量 0.86 万吨 /24H2 产量 0.41 万吨，浮选精矿锑含量分别为 14.3%/15.3%。 事件点评 富锑矿采区开采完毕，锑产量大幅下降。Olimpiada 矿是公司唯一含锑的黄金 矿山，其中 Vostochny 采区第四阶段属于富锑矿段，2024 年开采完毕导致 Olimpiada 浮选精矿产量下降。根据公司公告，24H2 加强 Vostochny 采区第 五阶段开采剥离工作，所以采剥比大幅抬升。 矿端库存和浮选精矿产品库存均大幅消耗。1）24H2 明显矿石处理量高于矿 石开采量，说明公司消耗前期积累库存；2）根据公司公告，24H2 黄金销量 提高，主要销售了之前积累的含锑浮选矿，作为黄金成本抵扣，黄金成本环比 下降 16%达到 355 美元/盎司（24H1 锑抵扣 6 美元/盎司 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the electric equipment industry as "Positive" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the price inversion of salt and lithium may put pressure on lithium prices in the future [1] - The report discusses the dynamics of various segments within the new energy industry, including energy metals, batteries and materials, new energy vehicles, photovoltaic/wind power, energy storage/grid, and electricity [8][10] Summary by Sections New Energy Industry Trends - The report notes that in January, China's sales of power and other batteries reached 80.4 GWh, a month-on-month decrease of 36.5% but a year-on-year increase of 40.8% [11] - The lithium battery materials industry is expected to maintain high growth due to recent price increases and policies encouraging battery replacements [11] Energy Metals - Lithium prices are under pressure due to a price inversion with salt, and the supply from major lithium producers is recovering quickly [13] - Cobalt prices are expected to decline due to overall weak demand and high inventory levels [13] - Nickel market prices are constrained by low demand, despite a slight decrease in inventory [13] New Energy Vehicles - In February, new energy vehicle sales remained stable, with a slight month-on-month increase of 1% among reported manufacturers [14] - BYD has launched a full range of intelligent driving features, prompting other manufacturers to follow suit [14] Photovoltaic/Wind Power - The photovoltaic industry is expected to see a surge in production due to new policies, although profitability remains low [15] - Wind power production is increasing, with a significant rise in component prices as the industry enters a peak season [15] Energy Storage/Grid - The cancellation of mandatory energy storage requirements is seen as a positive development for the energy storage industry [20] - Total investment in the grid is expected to exceed 800 billion in 2025, with a focus on ultra-high voltage and smart grid technologies [20] Electricity (New Energy/Traditional Energy) - The 2025 energy work guidelines emphasize supply security and low-carbon transformation, with a target of adding over 200 GW of new energy capacity [20]

Economic Growth and Targets - The 2025 economic growth target is set at 5%, higher than the international forecast of 4.5%-4.8%, indicating confidence in economic recovery and sufficient policy reserves[2] - The CPI target is set at 2%, reflecting a pragmatic approach to current weak domestic demand and expectations[2] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - The fiscal deficit rate is set at 4%, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous year, with a deficit scale of 5.66 trillion yuan, up by 1.6 trillion yuan[3] - General public budget expenditure is projected at 29.7 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.2 trillion yuan from last year, breaking the previous consensus of a 3% fiscal constraint[3] - The issuance of special bonds includes 1.3 trillion yuan for long-term bonds and 500 billion yuan to support state-owned banks, with a total new government debt of 11.86 trillion yuan, up by 2.9 trillion yuan[17] Domestic Demand and Structural Reforms - Expanding domestic demand is prioritized in the 2025 government work tasks, emphasizing the need for consumption and investment[4] - The report outlines ten key areas of focus, with "expanding domestic demand" at the forefront, followed by "developing new productivity" and "promoting education and science"[4] Risk Management and External Environment - The report acknowledges rising external uncertainties, including geopolitical tensions and trade barriers, which may impact trade and investment confidence[9] - It emphasizes the need for proactive policy implementation to enhance economic resilience against external shocks[11] Long-term Economic Strategy - The focus on "new productivity" and "education and science" reflects a long-term strategy for sustainable economic growth, balancing short-term stabilization with long-term development[4] - The government aims to address structural issues in the economy, including weak domestic demand and employment challenges, through comprehensive macroeconomic policies[10]

[Table_Main] 2025 年政府工作报告透露出哪些资本 市场高质量发展信号? 事件描述 2025 年 3 月 5 日，全国人大第十四届三次会议在北京召开，国务院总理李强 代表国务院作出政府工作报告（下文简称《报告》）。 （1）进一步细化中长期资金长周期考核机制。我国养老基金、企业年金、职 业年金对权益资产的投资比例较低，考核周期较短、对波动率容忍程度较低 是制约养老基金参与权益市场的重要原因；保险资金需增配权益资产缓解"资 产荒"压力，保险资金作为中长期资金入市确定性较高。未来将有更多助力中 长期资金入市的细化规则落地，推动养老金、保险资金发挥"耐心资本"优 势。（2）ETF 图谱进一步完善，推动指数化基金发展。以 ETF 为代表的指 数化基金是中长期资金的重要组成部分，我们看好宽基 ETF、红利 E TF 及服 务新质生产力的主题型被动产品；被动债基有望获得更多政策支持，改善债 券型基金主被动投资失衡的局面；顺应全球资产配置的 QDII-ETF 等产品有 望进一步扩容，进一步完善 ETF 图谱。（3）强化市值管理，持续优化资本市 场投资生态。强化上市公司市值管理，提升投资者获得感，是资本市场投资生 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [4] Core Viewpoints - The suspension of cobalt exports from the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) for four months is expected to impact approximately 67,000 tons of available raw materials, leading to a short-term price boost. However, the actual supply-demand impact is limited, and the long-term trend of oversupply remains unchanged [2][10][18] - The DRC's decision to halt exports is part of a broader strategy to stabilize the market, with a review of the policy planned after three months. The focus will be on potential new policies such as export quotas [2][18] - The cobalt price has reached a near twenty-year low, with significant fluctuations observed over the years due to various market dynamics [9][10] Summary by Sections Export Suspension Impact - The DRC's export suspension is effective from February 22, 2025, and is aimed at controlling oversupply in the international market. The suspension applies to all producers but does not affect production levels, thus copper exports remain unaffected [1][8] - The DRC's annual cobalt production is estimated at 200,000 tons, and the four-month suspension is projected to affect 67,000 tons of cobalt supply, leading to inventory accumulation locally [2][10] Market Dynamics - The DRC accounted for over 70% of global cobalt production, and the country is a critical supplier for China, which imported 629,000 tons of cobalt raw materials in 2024, predominantly from the DRC [10] - The report highlights that since 2022, cobalt raw materials have been in surplus, with an additional inventory of 87,000 tons, suggesting that the short-term supply concerns may be mitigated by existing stocks outside the DRC [14][18] Policy Risks and Metal Concentration - The report emphasizes the need to monitor policy risks associated with metals that have high supply concentration, such as nickel, tin, lithium, and zirconium. These metals are subject to various regulatory changes that could impact their supply and pricing [3][20] - Nickel and tin are highlighted as metals with significant supply risks due to regulatory changes in Indonesia and Myanmar, while lithium and zirconium are concentrated in Australia and South Africa, respectively [3][20]