202 20 4 24 年 年第 12 月 67 31 期 作者: 中诚信国际 研究院 执行院长 袁海霞 hxyuan@ccxi.com.cn 研究员 张 堃 kzhang02@ccxi.com.cn 研 究 员 汪苑晖 yhwang@ccxi.com.cn 研 究 员 张文宇 wyzhang.Ivy@ccxi.com.cn 增量政策效果有所显现，PMI 重回景气区间， 2024 年 10 月 景气度走低指向经济仍承压，期待宏观政 策"更加给力"，2024 年 7 月 PMI 供需两端景气度双双回落，需关注制造 业企业被动补库存，2024 年 6 月 PMI 供需两端均升至扩张区间，但与高频数 据表现存在一定背离，2024 年 3 月 如需订阅研究报告，敬请联系 中诚信国际品牌与投资人服务部 赵 耿 010-66428731 gzhao@ccxi.com.cn www.ccxi.com.cn 宏观经济 日 PMI 数据点评 PMI 延续扩张，产需修复动能有待加强 ——12 月 PMI 数据点评 12 月新出口订单指数为 48.3%，较上月回升 0.2 个百分点，短期 看外需仍具韧性，或许是出于对海外加征关税的 ...

www.ccxi.com.cn 企业评级部 程方誉 010-66428877-606 fycheng@ccxi.com.cn 其他联络人 刘 洋 010-66428877 yliu01@ccxi.com.cn 中诚信国际 生猪养殖行业 特别评论 2025 年 1 月 目录 要点 1 主要关注因素 2 结论 9 联络人 作者 1 2025 年生猪养殖行业特别评论 2024 年前三季度，生猪供给缩量持续兑现令我国生猪价格整体呈现 大幅上涨态势，受散户和二育群体积极出栏令行业产能有所恢复影 响，9 月后生猪价格开始回落，但年末节日以及"冬腊"消费对生猪 需求仍有一定温和提振效果，考虑到今年尾部产能恢复缓慢，叠加 冬春季疫病高发、仔猪供应断档等因素，预计短期内生猪供给或出 现阶段性减少，猪价或呈缓慢震荡、筑底回升态势，2025 年生猪供 给整体增幅有限，猪价或在低盈利水平维持窄幅震荡态势。 在规模化主导的市场格局下，"猪周期"不再"波澜壮阔"，生猪 养殖行业的竞争将趋向"技术驱动的降本增效"，拥有令成本进一 步下降的突破性技术和管理能力的企业将具备更高的竞争力和抗风 险能力。 2024 年一季度，生猪价格"低位磨底" ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates that the investment rating for the non-standard debt risk of platform companies in Henan Province is under scrutiny due to increasing overdue incidents and shifting risk dynamics [1][16][33]. Core Insights - The non-standard debt overdue incidents in Henan Province rank among the highest in the country, with significant exposure occurring early, particularly in Pingdingshan and later spreading to major cities like Zhengzhou and Luoyang [1][33]. - The report highlights a notable shift in non-standard debt risk from county-level platforms to city-level platforms, indicating a broader systemic issue within the region's financial management [1][33]. - Recent policies, such as the "35 Document" and "134 Document," aim to support the restructuring and replacement of non-standard debt, providing a framework for addressing the growing financial pressures faced by platform companies [11][32]. Summary by Sections Non-Standard Debt Risk Characteristics - Non-standard financing is a significant channel for platform companies in Henan, with a total non-standard debt scale ranking seventh nationally as of the end of 2023 [16][28]. - Despite the high absolute value of non-standard financing, its proportion of total debt remains relatively low, ranking 20th among provinces [16][28]. Recent Trends in Non-Standard Debt - Since the implementation of the "One Package Debt Relief" policy, the frequency of non-standard debt incidents has increased, with 29 overdue events recorded over the past five years, placing Henan fifth in the national ranking [16][17]. - The report notes that the number of overdue incidents in 2024 is expected to double compared to 2023, with significant occurrences in Luoyang and Zhengzhou [17][33]. Economic and Financial Context - Zhengzhou and Luoyang are identified as key cities where non-standard debt risks are prevalent, with Zhengzhou benefiting from stronger economic fundamentals and financial resource coordination [19][33]. - Luoyang's weaker county-level platforms face heightened liquidity pressures due to tighter financing channels and insufficient debt management capabilities [19][27]. Policy and Future Outlook - The report emphasizes the need for effective debt management and regulatory oversight to mitigate the risks associated with non-standard debt, particularly in light of the ongoing economic challenges [32][33]. - Future strategies for addressing non-standard debt issues include leveraging central government policies for debt restructuring and enhancing the operational capabilities of platform companies [32][33].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The restructuring and integration of urban investment enterprises in Jiangsu Province have accelerated since 2023, with new characteristics emerging, including the normalization of upper-level new establishments and cross-level mergers as primary methods for strengthening enterprises, reducing financing costs, and unifying debt management [12][54] - The restructuring process is increasingly focused on the reallocation of regional resources, with a significant emphasis on professional and industrial integration paths [12][54] - The restructuring of urban investment enterprises is essential for adapting to financing regulatory policies and optimizing business operations, which can lead to a reduction in regional financing costs [54] Summary by Sections Restructuring Characteristics - The restructuring of urban investment enterprises is characterized by a higher frequency and intensity, particularly among lower-level enterprises, with significant variations in methods across different cities [32][35] - The most common methods of restructuring include the transfer of equity and assets, with a noticeable increase in cases involving changes in shareholders and actual controllers since 2022 [43][54] Integration Paths - The integration paths primarily involve professional integration, focusing on consolidating related businesses and resources, while industrial integration is less common [44][27] - Professional integration aims to concentrate resources on core businesses, while industrial integration seeks to enhance development capabilities through capital-driven mergers and acquisitions [27][29] Government and Corporate Relations - The restructuring process necessitates a clear delineation of responsibilities and powers between government and urban investment enterprises, ensuring that enterprises do not assume government financing roles [52][54] - Effective integration requires enhancing the operational efficiency of urban investment enterprises and ensuring that the restructuring leads to genuine resource allocation rather than mere formal integration [52][53]

| --- | --- | |--------------|-------| | | | | 要点 1 | | | 主要关注因素 | 2 | | 结论 12 | | 皖南区县平台统筹化债与发展的举措及影响分析 本文认为，"一揽子化债"政策使得皖南区县平台的债务压力 将较以往有所减轻，但经营性债务的接续仍然存在较大压力； 皖南区县平台应把握其独特的产业及区位优势，利用好承接江 浙沪产业转移的政策支持，将业务布局与区域优势产业及重点 发展产业匹配，进而提升自身的长期造血能力。 皖南区域产业基础深厚，且凭借其区位优势，在承接江浙沪产业转移方面持续获得政策利好；经济 及财政实力整体分化较明显，财政增速较快，强区县主要集中于芜湖市、马鞍山市、宣城市等；皖 南区县整体债务压力在省内相对较低，且近年来债务增速不高；"一揽子化债"以来城投债发行规 模锐减、新增难度较大、净融资规模由正转负，但发行成本明显下行。 整体来看，皖南城市的产业发展情况有所分化，但整体来看产业基础较深厚，且凭借区位优势，近年 来获得承接江浙沪产业转移相关的多重利好政策，为产业发展注入新动能。 资料来源：《安徽省国土空间规划（2021—2035 年）》， ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the infrastructure investment and financing industry in Jiangsu Province [2]. Core Insights - Jiangsu Province's urban investment companies have continued to strictly implement the provincial government's debt management policies, leading to a significant decline in total asset growth rates and various asset categories [3][4][12]. - The reliance on government subsidies for profitability is notably high among Jiangsu's urban investment companies, with investment income also contributing significantly to profits [41][42]. - The overall financial performance of Jiangsu's urban investment companies is being closely monitored, particularly regarding the recovery of receivables and the management of inventory levels [3][9][21]. Summary by Sections Summary - As of September 2024, Jiangsu's urban investment companies reported total assets of 182,354.04 billion yuan, reflecting a 4.06% increase from the beginning of the year, slightly below the national average [7][9]. - The growth rate of receivables has decreased, but their proportion of total assets remains significantly higher than the national average, indicating potential liquidity issues [9][22]. - The cash flow from operating and investment activities continues to show a net outflow, raising concerns about future financing policies and their impact on cash flow [4][41]. Key Focus Areas - The report highlights the tightening financing policies affecting the urban investment sector, which has led to a decline in asset growth rates across various categories [3][12]. - The high proportion of receivables and inventory relative to total assets is a concern, particularly in cities like Xuzhou, Yancheng, and Nantong [3][9]. - The dependency on government subsidies for profitability is a critical issue, with certain cities showing excessive reliance on these funds [41][42]. Conclusion - The financial performance of Jiangsu's urban investment companies is under scrutiny, with a focus on asset management, profitability sources, and the impact of external financing conditions [4][41]. - The report emphasizes the need for ongoing observation of the recovery of receivables and the management of inventory levels to ensure financial stability [3][9][21].

Fiscal Policy and Deficit - The budget deficit rate for 2025 is recommended to increase to 3.4% or even 3.8%, with a deficit scale of approximately 5 trillion yuan, of which the central deficit scale may be around 4 trillion yuan[6] - The central government's leverage ratio is estimated to be 29.37%, while the local government's leverage ratio is 46.17%[9] - The total government debt scale by the end of 2025 is projected to be 95.79 trillion yuan, with a government debt increment of 13.26 trillion yuan[9] Special Bonds and Infrastructure - Special bonds for 2025 are suggested to be around 2 trillion yuan, with new special bond quotas arranged at 4 trillion yuan to support infrastructure and debt resolution[28] - The central government's leverage space may exceed 6 trillion yuan, considering special bonds for major projects and central deficit scales[28] - Traditional infrastructure projects are gradually saturating, but there is still significant space for generalized infrastructure, especially in new urbanization and new infrastructure areas[15] Local Government Debt and Reform - Local government debt risks need to be effectively managed, with a focus on developing while resolving debt, and avoiding new hidden debts[45] - The reform of financing platforms is crucial for improving the endogenous capacity of local debt resolution and development[58] - The central government should strengthen its fiscal responsibilities, especially in education, social security, and healthcare, to alleviate local fiscal pressures[42] Tax and Fiscal System Reform - The tax system needs to adapt to new economic dynamics, with a focus on enhancing local tax construction and standardizing non-tax revenue management[44] - The central government should increase its share of fiscal expenditures, especially in areas with global and spillover effects, such as education, social security, and healthcare[42] - The reform of the fiscal system should focus on improving the efficiency of budget funds and avoiding the "path dependence" and "inertial growth" problems of traditional budget models[22] Consumer and Economic Stimulus - Supporting domestic demand and boosting consumption are key priorities, with measures to increase residents' income and reduce logistics costs[34] - The government should focus on improving social security systems to eliminate residents' "worries" and enhance consumption willingness[14] - The real estate market remains a significant constraint on domestic demand, and fiscal policies should support the stabilization of the real estate market[36]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the issuance of science and technology innovation bonds (科创债) by urban investment enterprises, supported by favorable policies and market conditions [6][7][65]. Core Insights - The issuance of science and technology innovation bonds has been significantly supported by government policies since its pilot launch in March 2021, with formal implementation in May 2022, aligning closely with national development strategies [10][12]. - Urban investment enterprises are increasingly issuing science and technology innovation bonds, with a notable growth trend observed in their issuance scale, particularly in the eastern and southern provinces of China [6][37][41]. - The characteristics of urban investment enterprises' bond issuance include a focus on medium to long-term maturities, with a significant portion of bonds being issued for park and area development operations [6][38][41]. Summary by Sections Science and Technology Innovation Bond Issuance Conditions and Policies - Science and technology innovation bonds are designed to support enterprises with significant technological innovation attributes, with funds primarily directed towards technology-related fields [24][10]. - The bond issuance process has been streamlined, allowing for quicker approvals and enhanced support for high-quality development in technology sectors [22][23]. Urban Investment Enterprises' Bond Issuance Analysis - The report highlights that urban investment enterprises have issued a total of 225 science and technology innovation bonds amounting to approximately 2,170.7 billion yuan, with a steady increase in issuance observed since 2021 [37][40]. - The majority of these bonds are focused on park and area development, with a significant portion of issuances occurring in the eastern and southern regions of China [41][42]. Future Outlook for Urban Investment Enterprises' Bond Issuance - The report suggests that urban investment enterprises are well-positioned to leverage science and technology innovation bonds as a key financing tool to facilitate their transformation and upgrade processes [65][66]. - The ongoing policy support and the need for urban investment enterprises to adapt to changing market conditions indicate a promising future for the issuance of science and technology innovation bonds [67][68].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the infrastructure investment and financing industry Core Insights - The urgency for revitalizing existing assets has increased due to limited new financing and mounting debt repayment pressures on local government financing platforms (LGFPs) [2][3] - The transformation of LGFPs from mere financing entities to multi-functional local state-owned enterprises has created a diverse asset base for revitalization efforts [4][28] - Continuous improvement of supportive policies, such as the "Document No. 19," has significantly accelerated the process of revitalizing existing assets [8][9] Summary by Sections Background of Asset Revitalization - The pressure to repay debts and the limited new financing have heightened the need for LGFPs to revitalize existing assets [3] - The "Central Comprehensive Debt Relief Policy" has improved the cost and structure of LGFPs' debt, but liquidity pressures remain significant [2][3] Paths for Revitalizing Existing Assets - The report categorizes revitalization paths into three main types: disposal, restructuring, and financing [9][10] - Disposal methods include selling non-core assets and addressing short-term liquidity pressures through asset sales [10] - Restructuring is suitable for assets with cash flow but underperforming profitability, focusing on resource integration and functional redevelopment [10][19] - Financing revitalization targets high-quality assets with stable cash flows, utilizing tools like REITs and asset-backed securities [10][11] Typical Methods for Revitalizing Assets - The report identifies four typical methods for revitalizing assets: land asset revitalization, operational property management, operational rights management, and equity revitalization [4][9] - Land asset revitalization includes government reclamation and changing land use [4] - Operational property management focuses on increasing occupancy rates and unified operations [4] - Operational rights management involves direct authorization and public resource utilization [4] - Equity revitalization primarily involves cashing out through share reduction and pledge financing [4] Policy Support for Asset Revitalization - The year 2022 marked the beginning of a policy framework for revitalizing existing assets, with the issuance of the "Document No. 19" as a key policy document [8] - Various ministries and local governments have since released specific guidelines to support asset revitalization efforts [8] Insights and Recommendations - The core of asset revitalization is identifying and nurturing quality assets, which is a cyclical process [4] - The revitalization of existing assets is complementary to the transformation of LGFPs, with resource integration aiding asset revitalization [4][8]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - CPI and PPI both declined, indicating that inflationary pressures are under control[1] - In November, social financing (社融) increased by 2.34 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 114.3 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 7.8%, unchanged from the previous month[2] - The new RMB loans in November amounted to 522.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 587.7 billion yuan, marking the lowest level since 2012[4] Group 2: Financial Market Trends - M1 growth rate in November was -3.7%, a significant narrowing of the decline by 2.4 percentage points from the previous month[5] - M2 growth rate was 7.1%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a divergence between M1 and M2 growth rates[5] - The net financing of government bonds in November was 1.31 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 160.1 billion yuan, serving as a crucial support for social financing[2] Group 3: Consumer and Corporate Financing - Short-term loans to households decreased by 37 billion yuan, the lowest level on record for this period, reflecting weakened consumer demand[4] - Corporate loans in November increased by 250 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 572.1 billion yuan, indicating persistent weakness in corporate financing demand[4] - The improvement in corporate bond financing, with a net financing amount of 242.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 109.8 billion yuan, provided additional support for social financing[2]